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Page 1: 1vIJ jvu - NBER

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tAJIGL6 = ( + + \ 'uq = [H6L6 i 12 922ITWG flJ9

+ JT6ch19'iou:

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jouq bLICG2 uq JJ6J2

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-iii n iebianoI) .($1) 111 nworf B &6 3iIiiuj 1.61IiL6m B103B9V11i 10 r13woi b9i39qX9 9113 oi bei6191

mo1' . B89D01 noiiqmusBnoD 1.6mni3qo bus ()&' 11013311111 3iIiiu r{iiw WOIIOZ)9 9113 iii uoiav evsuf 9W I)

()"1s 1 [()'—9k]3a _________ — _________ — = — =

931L6116V 9113 buS 9UL6V b9b9qx9 9113 19vl339q891 91S bus 91911w

b9339qx9 9113 rliod oi beisI9l 81 3351 389193111 9113 BUIlT .11 iwo1 noiiqmuenoD 81o3a9VIl1 9113 lo

b3beqx9 IliH .InImcfiIiup9 lii i13woi noliqmuanoD 8Uo9fIS3lL63Brn lo 9311511.6V 9113 bus 9IJLSV

389193111 muildiliup9 911T .91153111 9113 ni'3ii3u Lsniism beb9qX9 wol e9LlqmL if 3woi noiiqmuano

911T .r1iwoi lIoiiqfflhIBlIoD b9b9qX9 9113 1131W 892S91)1tt 2b1OW 191130 nI .i1ii1 9d 3811m 119113 9351

110i3U3i38dU2 Lsloqm93l9ini 10 iiDi3&619 9113 10 9819W[1 9113 81 — ineiDffl9oD 1iiLsnoi31oqo1q

.89311919191q eIdSu.6q98-9m13 9113 1I9V1 ()1) 31I9LDffi9OD 1101819V6-)1811 9V135191 9113 oal.s 81

'iffi3u Lsniism b9339qx9 i1iif BeIIqmi b1L6Jl 191130 9113 110 if3woi rIOiiqmuarIO3 111 93115115V u1tH

noiiDrn11 '3i1iiu Lsniism 9113 .e.i O < ())"s 35113 1I11flhJBS 31L6Lfp911i a1I9a119L 'cf 91153151 9113 ui

9113 rliiw 89259139b i abuov.' ieilio III .wol ed iBUm 119113 elsi 389193ni mJIndiliup9 911T .X9VIIOD 81

= 3DIIia . 81 3uis3no 3i1snoihoqoiq 9r13 bns if3woi noiiqmuenoD lo 931L611.SV

2.6 noiBaelqX9 9VOdS 9113 9311w-el 1163 9W — [() + 1] ()u

.o {()'u —

[()u+i] ()i} —

+ =

311.6381103 81 ii 8110i3DII111 3i1i3u 19W0 iol infi .19v91 nokiqmuBno3 9113 110 8b119q9b Is19ne ni () .0 = ()'u bus

1101819V5-)1ai1 9Vi3S191 311.6381103 il3iw 1o389v111 us id b33.slirqoq 'Iuuo 81 fflOflOD9 9113 11911W

911T .i) = D bus & = 9311911 noi3qmuarro3 93S91S 3113 3d 111w noiiqmuaIIoD airl

bus 9vs11 9W \1 bus 1 = io' .(o*-1 — u + c = ()c ed 111w 33.61 38919311i

1JiDi3e.6I3 euI3 a9as313uuf 1) aA .n iii DrnOioIIOm 3on 81 (u)i 3.6113 93011 o3 ilIsiloqifil 81 31 .19vi339qae1

nO .e3sI 389193111 mhJildlIilJp9 9113 985913111 oi 81)1193 d3idw 89&69139b noiiuiiiBdua I.sioqm9il9ini lo

.eisi 389193111 fflhIiidiliIJpe eiIi 98.691391) 03 81)1193 ulDirIw 838.6913111 IIOIB19VS-)f 811 3113 bnsif 191130 3113

> &\ 11911W 1 > (t1 < 11911W () < (') \I £1 < I = jI) io'I

81

Page 21: 1vIJ jvu - NBER

bns noiiqmuanoD 21ojevni ibsf ioevrn r1od rliiw beislirqoq ai monoe erfi iieilW

eoqq .()i> (1) > & neriw elqrnsxe io1 .beniinieieb '12110n90bne 916 vfihiiu isitiism

A .t oi 9013 ai iiei{i 961 919i1Ii 911i O oi 980b i 1IoiiqmLrno3 9i6e1s lo level 3119r1nD exli

-qmuanoD bebeqxe eiH .'iiiine eei1-lii 911i thiswo oilolhoq ir1 i1iii I ioaevnx Beas913ni '{

i1iwo noiiqmhJnoD b9iDeqxe iii 9aselD9b eiiT .eDnsilSv i eob oa bns 9a691D9b iiwoi noi

diwo noiiqmxlano3 lo 9D11Silsv eIli iii easeieb eiff 91111w eisi iBeletni 9th easeieb oi abnei

eihi eisnimob ihiwoi noi3qmuanoD b9iDeqxe lo b9T19 911 i II .eisi iaeieiiii eu J 9as9iDni oi abmi .[() (')] 91L61 9th ebiano ei nsif el ed nerfi eisi ieeieini

-non edT .ins eviisirI9aelqel elf i rI119bxanoD d noiiszriia aiuf I eLsns 19113101 ns i1enoneoxe ai ulDiliw inemwobne el 9L6 911 3 1qmia 2i iII96 eviisiIl92elqel 9113 lo uioiiqmua

oats ai ibiilw [C\ = ( ulliw] (81) lu fl9V 21 () ilI9LDffi9oD nOiel9vs-)lan evtjs!91 all .b9ftbeqa

noiiqmuanoD 9113 ihiiw aeiisv won ("{)u .noiiuliiadna Lsloqmeh9ini lo i3biias1e aiuf lo eaievni 9113

bn.s $\1 = = (oo) 4 = = (O) 1131w aeaseIDeb 1Lsinoionom ('{)t 1shir3iiisq ill .level

d nevi 9361 iaeieiuui eifT .> (j'{)D> n —

() + 1] () —

G'flx + =

89&6913111 'ILSDiff030lIOffl i 0 = bn.s 0 < 11911w 36113 eioT4 . ni DrnoionOm-non ievewolf ai illsDin030noffl i O < bas 0 = neufW = + > + = (u bus ifiiw

bus 0 < 11911w eafiD L619l19 9113 uI .t — (\> 1 ) )

— bus illiw a9a691D9b

as el9boin mo iii auufT .

[() (1)] nim > u bns (i ) ()u evsc{ ol eldiaaoq al ii 0 < (1) d bebnuod ensm eulJ ebiaiujo evorn 1163 elsi iaemeiuii muimdiliupe euli emii 19V0 aen.sr1D

buss

9d ysm !asinuCI bns lebom 1110 fl99W39d 9361 39i93iii 9i13 lo 101V5119d 9113 J1 931191911ib edT

neea iaed i aidT .mOnO39 ruoibuibomq £ bus '1110HO39 ensibxe us neewieci eDnemellib erIi ol ezrb

monoe noiiubomq £ nI .0 o nesfw ',inthheD iebnu 2926) niiimi1 owl eifi numebianoD d noii3uJbomq if 31w eansDed al eiulT .aeDnelelemq 9113 lo inebiieqebni 1qmia 21 eism 329193111 9113

inusimdiinpe 9113 o1onibei noiiubomq isenil sebnU .aisoneobne 21 229DO1 noiiqmhianoD edi

IIoiiDubomq 9113 'd nevi as] noiismiolan.sii lo 9361 Lsmoqmeimeini eiIi ol isuipe iauim 9361 ieieini .befti9qa lanoneoxe ei ilisq noiiqmuanoD 9113 fflOflOD9 9nsifDx9 9113 iii .& ai rbMw [olonubei

no bneqeb aeob ibiilw + 81 9361 iaemeirui muumdiiup9 9113 229301 noiiqmUaIIoD eif 3 rieviD

iii 1131w 2eaSelDfli 9361 329193111 9113 JO < & .9.i] u13woi eviii2oq ihiiW .2931191919mg 21oi29Vfl!

ni )12i1 euli no (i1evi3seri) 2bneqeb oath elsi ieie3ni erli inisi19rIuJ ai 919113 iielfW .9253 aiihi

Page 22: 1vIJ jvu - NBER

50

= + ()& (52)

m!JLj MG O91U JJ6 q?kUUJc2 o pom (53):

—______ — IT— =c(i—) i n

MJ6L6

= ;)q—

(st)

o ():C!A6U fJJG BL0C622 O } p6 UJ9iIJ1C2 O CU pG 621J? opuq pA bbAu JGUflhJ

MJJIC}J !2 2W9JJ6L JJ9'U pOJ iiq & 92 qeciieeq 69LJ!6L

I1IICiOU O C' OL g ebGcflJc ot bLw66L A9JJ16 140f 6 JJ9 L6C6C 9'U !U6L!0L IIJIUIWIIIIJ

COU29Ur LOL 6X9iUbJ6 OL .> 0.3 — MG JIgAG 5 + — > 0 E!a6 T b1oe 92 9

— J flU6L C6L91U bgL9'w66L COI7eILIIJ2 }6 iII6L6 L96 !2 poiuqq GjOM pA boaWAG

1eupJTi0U 9CL022 !UAG2OL2 J6LJ rbbLogcJr6e — 0 MV!J6 !I bbLO9'CJJ62 (j)

H6UC63.

qGbGuqe OU G LOMJJ LG O LG946 couerrwbou 92 MGJJ 92 JTG coueuwbiou

____ (_;)= + —0.3 — ()

ot xbL6e6q U C JJ6 GdIIfflpL!IIUJ U6L62 L96—* 0 s'xrq : —4 °° CU J16U 1126 92 1:J16 2491:6 A9'L19pJG O fIG 6COUOIIJA u21:69q

jç mba c ( ) ouo E (o oo) uq e wouo1:omc9JJA q6CL692u M!flJ — I

OL ()5(Aj+—T)0116-1:0-0116 1u9bb!I1 6A66IJ r s'uq j:collenwbfiou iu 6drnppLIsInr GWUT9 T ip = imbpe 1:JJ91: 1:JJGL6 6X121:2 1:116 OJTOM!IJ

UJACT& MG 6U6 9 11GM A9Li9pJG c'1 cI\1 MJJICJJ L6bL626I11:2 iUI621:0L J32 2J19'LG 0 L691:6

112 UOM COU2qGL fIG qAu9IUc2 O IU21:9U9UGO112 !111:6L621: L91:6 111 OLCJGL fO 2!WbfflA OITL

12

111 fJ6 bLoqffcfou 6COIJOUJX O D'"(o) MJJ1J6 III fIG 6XCJJ91J6 GCOUOIJJA COIIeiq6LGq JJGLG I

9A6L21OU 92 q2c1r226q 9pOA6 JJ1112e 92 C 1J62 fJJ6 6UGC1: Off fIG I11:6L621: L91:G WA6 U691:!A6

IP1:1TL6 cou2ITmbfou fl 12 J9LG 1:}J6 1U1:6LGC1: L916 6CLGS262 MJ1:JJ t1 ffG 1:0 fJIG 6116C1: Ct 142J

Page 23: 1vIJ jvu - NBER

SI

A1(oo) = (j) ?(3)(oo) = GWM1 "k'

?(oo) = irnu[\(1)(xY \(0o)} ()

J,JJGOLGIJI O% tli.6 bLG%6&1 S G GCOiOM 'G E (O J)

Cou2;s'urI JJJJ2 JJO1f6AGL !2 110 LJ16 9'2 2JJOMU p? 1J6 0JJOMiII flJ6OL6IXJ:

boburJ96q MJI UA62OL [j.j MG JI9'A6 qLObb6q JJG 2mp2CLb; A6U 4p9'; ;}r6 I°' ?GJq2 9'L6

MG 2}JOJTJ 1J9'AG (oc) = (oo) MJJ!C}f 12 }J6 J0U-GLW A6Jq ffi}JGU J6 6C0U0W? a oujA

JOU-;6LIJJ pouq A6Jqe ajroujq G q6;6LUJTM6q W9!Mj?k p?t JJ6 bLGGLGUC62 O JUAG2;OL 5 pi O;JJGL

9'2 . — 00 JJT112 11JA62;OL 5 MIII 6A6xr;fl9JJ? 0MM 4JJ6 MJJOJ6 6COIJOW? 1P12 2661112 °

J+' MIJJ 6 L69'6L JJ9'U 9iJ? bo2içiAG C0M249IJ4 MJJ bLop9'pJ!;A I 9'2 L OO i6' 00

q0uJ71r9'e2 J6 6COUOUT? JJ L6J9'1A6 M69'JJJ 9'uq coua1Twb;ou- 1 69'2? ;o 2J10M J9'I OL ci >

y2 q12C11226cJ 69'LH6L MIJ6U } 6COW62 j9'L6 (2m9'JJ) ;J16 IUAG2OL MJJ JOM6L (pp6L) LJ2J 9'A6L2!OU

?(oo) ra o\ ci o\TGWWU 2 GUSO363 oc 6Z.W osq buc

im irn COU2GL ;p jou ?16Jq 1(oo) Lom 1JJ6016W MG JJ9'A6 ;p OflOMIJ J6WW9':

rt ou )jjq

A0Jj7 qiob2 l0 (3 9 I2 10C9'J IU!II!WJTIJJ 9'2 14 2JJOlTjq M}16U 1 ,0fl0M2 9' qJJ2i0M b1oc622'

C9'26 M]JGU 1JJ6L6 12 9' JOC9'J unuimrruJ 0 9'2 9' T11Ct10IT 0 0L c e [o j]e ;JJG 11J6L62 L9'6

I6 u 9'Ir;9'1J60112 qIJ nq A09'flA 0 UI6L624 L9;6 s' puc;ou o c 4OG I}'9' !' I}J6BL6tGLGUCG JJ6GL0GUG!IA 9'W0IJ !UA62I0L2 C9'IJ IJCLG9'86 UGLG2 L9'6 A9'L!9'p!JA' L!1TLG bjo;

JJ0M6A6L lJJ6 iU6L624 L9'6 A0J9'iJlA 12 U0U-6L0 111JJ622 L 12 9'4 12 J0C9'J IXHUTWIIIJJ A9J116 J,jU12

bL626u lJI6 !Ul6L62l L9'4G 2 C0U29'U J42 A0J9' Jf 2 6L0 MJJ6IJ J6 f MO 111A62;0L2 C06X21

M°6 4IJ9' 0.(o) = = JJII12 TM JJ6 M0 J1IITU C9262 MJI6LG J6LG !2 oujA 01J6 !uAG2;0L

= +

= + kte + + (5)2

M}J6LG

Page 24: 1vIJ jvu - NBER

uq ?(x) = w!u[?(J)(oo) I\()(oo)} = (oo)fJ'G MO flIJJU A6Jq CITLA62 2!UC6 J16A SL6 COU29II OA6L IJJ6] I lJJ2 C9'26 >

= = oos uq = = oosacr (HGL6 M6 }J9A6 qLobb6q 4JJ6 2I1P2CL!b 1 OL

1J1G 29W6 A9J1162 92 !u EsiL62 j uq : = oos = 002 q = j pGu ojjom }J9ETJLG MG bjo JJ6 pouq ?16Jq2 OL 9 M1q6 L9IJ6 O LIJ91IUf162 B'6 b9L U66L 916 2G T

EOL 9LpL9L? UL91TL 6M6GU 0 uq Q& flJ6 pouq ?qGJq C9IJ pG cciijsiq LOW J6OLGW

4 JJJG JJGjq C/lO19J W9Lj61 M6911J1 C9IJ JJ9A6 9 J9L6 9j6C 111 q66uuIuiu 9226 bL!c6

o p6 iijçp q Lpriou oq9A jy uubJiGa 4JJ9 !UA62OL2 Mi4}J OiJjA '211J9'fl bLoboLou O 4JJ6

UJOL6 q2bLObOLOD9fJ? L61J6C !IJA62OL Je bL66L6uc62 EffLfP6L UO!C6 IJJ9 ?(oo) 12 ruq6b6uq6u

0j 1UAG24OL TI f J1G ifi IILIA 916 9iJ JJ6 J622 9fL9CIA6 2 O !UA6240L 5 Jj1112 bi.c Miff

JjJ6 JO1J6L f JIG poriq IIJ9 LJ42 IJJG ]J1JJ6L J76 6XbGC6q MG9Jf}J o UA6fOL [L6Jsr!A6 lO 1JJ9'

T I9I! O iIJA62OL 5 C0U2Gd1T611IA IUA62çOL rGX6L2 9' 2LOIJ6L JUUIIGUCG 015 !I2 GdII!flpLpTW bLJcG

O JUA620L 5 JJJIi2 9 J0IJ-JGLW pouq 92 9 JIGJU JII2ILI1IU6U J2 UJOLG 9L9CIA6 l0 JIJAG2tOL

UOU-1LJAI9J y jo J6A6J2 o cou2JTwbçIou1 JT6 wniu9'J ffiJT;? O iUA62lOL J 12 UT4TCJJ JIJJ6L JI91I

J0U-L1JIr L0MJJ O, fIG 6C0UOIIIA flU6L IJJlJq iOMfI fIG bLop9pJ o 2cicp 9' OMU lITuI 2

9' 2GA6L6 qOMU 1TLU p5 fIG J)TfITL6 [J69CffII fO JOIA couarrmbiou 16A6121 qGCL6S'262 Miff fIGGxbGccGq

911 !U2L11m6U 0 }J66 9'9'U2 fIf 1116 0MIf JTLU2 0 fIG6COUOIIJA Ot COIIL2& fIG BLop9pfl 0

o, cou2ITUJbiou 9ç fiG W9'11L1 iIJqGb6Uq6U 0, fi6 29'46 OJ 4Jl6 6COIJOUJA ff615 JJIJT2 i bLoAiqGB

q62b6 fJGL IJJ9'JJ bLOp9PJJJA 0 OCCJTLLGUCG I4OG JI9 0L 9' J0If-6LW poirq b? 0156

2l962 C9'IJ 6 JJJJ• JJJII& IJJG26 29G C9'U G A6L?i puboL9'u ill q66LmIqu oq9'?2 9226l bLJc62

bLop9p!p O f1026 29G2 UJ9'? p6 2UJ9'JJ pI14 fIG LIl9'LiIJ9'J 1T4iJTi62 0L c0U2IiwbiOU p5 fi626

fJJGL6 916 2fJJ h022!pJG t1T11L6 2ç9'462 0 fIG GC0IJOUJA p5 MIJ!CJJ UA62ç0L J 9Cff9'JJ? qoUJIf9'62 Jj16

iO5 !UA6210L 5 W9? 6A61JI19'JJ? q0mTu9'6 fJ6 GC0U0IJJ? [Ju 6LW2 0 JJJ2 M69'JflJ s'uq C0U2I1IUbfl0IJ}

flH2 266UT1UJ? C0JIU6L-iIJ4Iri4JAG LG2JIJ 911262 tOL fIG t0II0MiIJ L692011 EAGU flJOITJJ US

bLGtGLGuc62 0 iITA62OL T GA6IJ fJ0I1JJ J1I2 L6J9'TAG M69'JfJJ Miff G IJ6JiipJG 1U 11J6 fIIJLG

I1U6L J0U-LIiII L0MfJJ (!6 k'i < 3\c 4JJ6 CJTLL6U Jou ?J6Jq2 916 2iJJ q66uu1U6q p? 6

uq \(oo) = ()(oo)' j 12 JmboLuf 0 IJ046 JJ9 ff6 CL1C9'J A9'J1T6 uo \• jjrnMI'615 > )(Q0) > \(5)(X)) JJJ6U (oo) = (3)(QO) MI'615 \()(oO) < (oo)

Page 25: 1vIJ jvu - NBER

21Ur!J9'L o JJ6 pc woqj iiq CJO26q-,OLw 2opTou c9'u p6 opiuq ,OL flJ6 0b4!uJ9'J 2JJ9'L1U

2}J9'L!U Li1J6' LOL 6X9'Wbf6 MJJ6U > > fj 9'uq = MJ16L6 = 1JJ6 2i19'1i0IJ 12

pAO L2JC-9'A6L21OU CO6WC6UI& 11J 9'Uq JJ9'I 9'J2O 9JJOM cjO26q-OLw ojiioir i0 1JJ6 ob!m9'J

1IJA620L2 JJ1ipiU flJ6 C19'22 01 i206J9'2!C 1TII 1IIUCtJ0U2 GL6 9'L6 0JJGL COWp1U9'iOU2 OI, 4JJG

2OJ1TiOU2 C9'U 6 opcsltJGq IOL p& obm1 aJJ9'L1U L11J62 !A6U 1JJ6 2b6CC bLGlGL6ucG8 01 JI6

JI6 OJJ6L 1A1J1 2diT9'L6-LO0 1J41Ji 11TIJC1OU Jj16 6diTfflpLpTIU 12 L9'CI9'P1G pGC9'1126 co26q-oLuJ

iu pG p9'ic WoqGje JJ6L6 9'L6 oiij? f lAO iUA621OL& 01J6 MTJJ JO9'L1JJIU1C 1J1UC!OU 9vq

21 OL6 CGUGL9I bL6.6L6UCG HG4GLO&GU6!1

6X6U2!OIJ2 01 4}T6 p9'2!C moqGJ

b9'Ls'wGfGL] 9'uq 1JJG 2!IUbJG GU0MW6UI bLocG22 12 cou2lqGLGq JU JI2 26C OU MG COU2q6L 20W6

[Miw LG2bGCçIA6JA c156 JO9'LiçJJW 9'IJq 2dJT9'LG-L0O J1ç1J14A JTUCfTOU 9'uq }J6 291116 UJ6 q12COI1IJ

L94G2 MJJJ 66L06U601T2 iUl620L2' LOL 21mbjTC1 !IJ GXB0210IJ OIJJX p6 C9'26 C) lM0 UA6aç0L2

i" BLAOIT 2GCOU2è MG JJ9'AG bL626u6q 9' b2!mouJoJT2 IIoqJ () JI6 46LW 24L1TC1IL6 01 IIJ16L62l

2 EX46U210U2 iq D!2CflaiOIT

2JObpr T 2JJOL1 m9IrLf!6e 9'uq qoiiuiinq 2Job!u 9 jou wTL!462

A9'pT62 9'uq 9'L69'l6 COU2JTIJJbIOU j6A6J JJG ?qGJq CITLA6 C9'U GxJqp 9' JJIIUJB6q 2JJ9'B6 ilbtAS'Lq

IJI!J91 pGJI9A1OL 0 1JJ6 ?6Jq CJILA6 2 OI1Uq IOL 01JJ6L b9'L9'w66L A9'J1162 EOL C6L9'!II b9'L9'Iu66L

L9UG polnJq6q p uq ?)H0U-W0U040Ir!C 1EL2 q6CL69'2U 9Uq JJ6U 1UCL6S21U 9'2 W9'f11LLIA !UCL69'262e 9'uq fl62 OJT2q6 JI6

4JI6 A6Jq UCLG9'2G2 9'IJq 9'bbLO9'cpG2 1(J)(0O)' EOL = oo (' = oaY Jf6 ?6Jq CITLA6

U62 011426 JI6 L9116 [?()( I(3)(1.)] uq !2 JOM6L W9'11 = y W9'IIL! UCL69'262

= oga) JI6 ?qGJq CITLA6 12 JlbMS'Lq 2JOb1U LOL JJ6 LS'IJ6 01 IIJ9'1TL 62 2J10MU 111 f}76 11L6

(3)(L) iAJJfl6 cJ16 A16Jq2 9' J0IJ IJJ9'11L 162 qGCLG9'26 uq 9'bbLo9'cJJ I't()(O0) EOL j = r (rca

p? 4JJ6 /AO JJWU AJGJq CJTLA62 [\()( 1(3)()] B'6 ?q6jq2 9' 2JIOLç W9T11L14162 9L6 CJO2G o

= o (' = O'52) JJG A16Jq CITLA6 2 qoMulA9'Lq 2J0b!U' J4 J162 1u2!q6 V6 L9'U6 ponuqq

fJJ6 m9'fnLJA !UCL69'262 V2 J CJJ9'U62 OA6L Tm& G eJrs'bG 0 JJ6 ?6jq CULA6 9'JeO Cp9'U62' EOL

9'L69'6 6U0MW6U ' JJJG AGJq C!TLAG J19'2 ar!u[\(J)(oo) \(3)(oO)] Awboc puc 9'26 qoMUMS'Lq ajobiu IIBM9'Lq 2Jobiu OL U0U-IIT0U00IJ1C q6b6UqiU OIl JJ6 C1ILL6L1 1GIJ 01

26611 JJ9'I 9'1 UA IIIJ6 E (o oo) p€ ?6Jq CIILAG M!fJT p01 iUAG20L2 bL626u C9'U

Page 26: 1vIJ jvu - NBER

9clGIIJOIJ MOLC c DGUIITU uq 2psL (J3) o Ii.prcjr ;jn rj; bgi; o ;p 2nG2çq ;o w p? pr-n BLIICG LnuqA ir pLOnJI; ;o wA

61J6C O JJGf6LOGUG1 iu 1UAGOL bLGt6L6UCG2 ou sa BLICG2 Hr BLCI1JLe porrq bLicG2 911q pG

6UOMW6IJ Hr JJ6 !AO-IIJA62OL 6COIJOW? Jj16 2TuJbJ6 bLOCG22 M2 C}J02611TU OLCJ6L O TJJ2lL96 4J1G

I' IG UJO6J 1J16 2b6c19J C26 O( 6OW6fL!c BLOMU!91r WO41OU 12 CO1J26L6 OL 1JJ6 LGG

J,qOLG C6UGLUI uqOliLuGII; bL0CG62

1J16 W1Tj11bJG-iUA62OL C9'26 JJ6L6 fIG drwJi9fiA6 L62flJ2 916 2!UJ!191

C911 6!JA 6X61I O!TL q12CIiioIr2 OIl JJ6 p6JISAJOL O pouq ?6Jq2 IU 16 lO-UA621OL C26 o

E (ooo)orniç 11 H3t I cli

J =J I —211b

— M}16L6 5 0 uq = jI j—a1

nzz;\ \qsoi o 'icxcli

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