DECEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 12 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2013 12

移动智能时代移动智能时代Mobile eraMobile era移动互联新产品日新月异移动互联新产品日新月异

China moves closer to 4GChina moves closer to 4G

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DECEMBER 2013 VOL. 24, NO. 12 | www.chinaeconomicreview.com 2013 12

Mobile eraChina moves closer to 4G

智能眼镜Google Glass的问世引燃了人们对可穿戴设备的畅想，

使之一跃而为炙手可热的年度话题，被视为继智能手机后又一

波移动互联浪潮。可穿戴设备究竟具有怎样的魔力？中国企业的发展机

会在哪里？发展瓶颈又是什么？

移动互联浪潮促使消费群体的生活以及购物、信息沟通形态发生

颠覆性剧变，在影响网民消费习惯的同时也在变革营销的方式。碎片时

间真正到来后，消费者的行为与过去有何不同？应该怎样把握消费者的

脉动和市场的变化，推动移动营销的发展？

中国在创意产业领域还缺少独创的理论体系。贺欣浩推出首部专

注商业创意的著作，希望从理论角度助推中国制造向中国创造的转型。

网络视频与电视媒体的融合是一大难题。加盟酷6的资深电视策划

人杜昉认为，电视媒体学习互联网思维，互联网从业者则学习电视媒体

的专业度，通过网台融合以带动原创内容的提升。而将视频网站打造

成“私媒体”的聚合平台，则是他真正看重的网台联动。

如何因应移动互联大趋势？关键还是思维方式的转变。“变者

通，通则久。”（《周易·系辞下》）相信移动互联时代的消费者会因

此收获更为人性化的全新体验。

In an interconnected world the arteries of communication are

increasingly cables and phone masts. They send data at the

speed of light across offices, cities, borders and continents. As

technology advances new opportunities are opening up in a range

of sectors, from healthcare to education and transportation,

giving not only direct economic benefits but also enabling vital

public services to reach greater parts of the population. A country

as vast and sometimes fragmented as China is a great example of

the benefits on offer. In order to maximize its potential, the gov-

ernment is speeding the rollout of new mobile communications

networks. There are high hopes that within the next few months

Beijing will have granted licenses for 4G, the next generation of

mobile telecommunications. If it does, new capabilities will open

up, driven by the nation’s leading mobile operator China Mobile,

which has already invested billions of dollars in the necessary

infrastructure. The opportunities are indeed endless.

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分翻印或转载本刊内容。所有内容除特别标明外，均为本刊采编人员完成。文章中提

到的货币除特别说明外均指人民币。

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE CONTENT OF THIS PUBLICATION CANNOT BE

REPRODUCED IN PART OR IN WHOLE BY ANY PERSON IN ANY JURISDICTION

WITHOUT WRITTEN APPROVAL FROM THE COPYRIGHT HOLDER.

December 201304

目录 CONTENT

8 如影随形

12

16 医改升级蕴藏商机

20 如何走出低谷期

25 下一座金矿

32 移动变革营销

40 移动阅读制高点

16

19

The House View10 China on Wall Street

Month in Review14 News briefs

Column18 Playing with the numbers

Q&A22 Profi t from China

Cover story28 Telecoms in China

Report36 In the red

38 Bail bonds

24

12

14

December 2013 05

47

54

46 解读大国策

50 以创意实现商业价值

51 网台联动助力原创

52 企业并购渐趋活跃

58 老而弥坚

60 鸟鸣山更幽

42 Comprehensive change

44 Upending reform

54 A second chance

56 Foreign homes

57 Chinese banks abroad

View

45 One-child policy

Looking at China

59 Old age

Travel journal

61 Ducks and double-eight

32

36Cover storyTelecoms in China28

目录 CONTENT

December 201306

Reliably connecting the world

Could you give a brief introduction of Lapp Cable Works Shanghai (LCS)? Lapp Cable Works Shanghai is the group’s first plant in China and the 17th production facility worldwide. The newly-established manufacturing base features world-class technology and European standard machinery. This move is in line with our target of coming closer to customers with state-of-the-art facilities, and our ambition to manufacture brand products here.

As a leading control cable brand in the world, why did Lapp seek to expand its footprint in China?We currently import most of prod-

How can LCS stand out among Chinese peers in terms of machinery as well as other facilities?Undoubtedly, in this sector of the cable industry, we manufacture the best, most reliable products. We are

ucts from Europe or from Singapore to China, which is good for the Chi-nese customers when they export their machinery outside of China. But when they sell the machinery in China, our products are costly because of import duties and transport costs. Therefore we decided to come here and start pro-duction, so we can help Chinese cus-tomers to save costs and have a more dedicated manufacturing base for them.

What is Lapp Group’s growth strategy over the next few decades?Our strategy is very simple – we want to get close to our customers, and serve all of their requirements as far as con-

bringing all of our expertise, including selection of machines, to this market. The facility we use for measuring or process control is absolutely the best we have globally in the market, and that is what makes our products so high quality. We are very sure when we send out products, that they match the best standard you can have in the world for control cable like ÖLFLEX® or data cable like UNITRONIC®.

Could you give us an overview of the solutions and products LCS will offer?Lapp Group is manufacturing 10,000 different cable products (such as ÖLFLEX® and UNITRONIC®). Here in Shanghai, we currently manufacture 250 different products. But in the near future, we will produce roughly 1,200 cable products in this plant in Shang-hai. For the next year when we start

nectivity is concerned. We are keen to bring the security, the love and the freedom to each citizen in China.

production in LCS, the cable capacity is expected to reach 90-100,000 kilom-eters, and the turnover would be as high as RMB100 million.

Lapp Group proudly boasts “originally quality, locally made” offerings. How do you understand the term “quality” and how important is it to you?To some extent, quality is a must for the whole market, but the Lapp norm is more than that. Maybe after safety for our people, quality is of top pri-ority. In contrast, many of our com-petitors don’t care about this. Also, we value the quality for the benefit of our customers because we don’t sell a cable product, we sell security and love. We are the only one that has brand policy -- wherever the cable is produced, in Singapore, or in New York, it has to be of the same quality.

CO

-PU

BL

ISH

ED

AR

TIC

LE

Riding on its successes worldwide, Lapp Group is delighted to announce its inaugural Chinese production. Group co-owners Mr. Andreas Lapp and Mr. Siegbert Lapp spoke to CHINA ECONOMIC REVIEW about the new business

Mr. Andreas Lapp

Mr. Siegbert Lapp

新观察

如影随形影子银行是否会成为下一波金融海啸的源头文 | 艺志

被评为2011年中国小额信贷年度人

物的张化桥所面对的是，中国经济

转型背景下出现的林林种种的影子银行。

作为切实推进影子银行实体化的先行者，

小额信贷行业在中国经济实体中不但已是

国有银行的有益补充，还是盘活国民经济

的重要力量。

简单地将影子银行等同于放高利贷是

失之偏颇的。影子银行的形式多种多样，

民间借贷资本多如过江之鲫的主要原因是

国有银行在小额风险贷款投资的缺失所

致。需求决定供给。民企有强烈的融资需

求，又无法从银行贷款，影子银行就应运

而生了。中国实际经济生活中的负利率催

生了6000多家小贷公司，无数的担保公

司、民间借贷、地下钱庄以及委托理财和

银行理财产品，这些都可以划归影子银行

范畴。

张化桥在新著《影子银行内幕》中描

述了影子银行体系的功能、监管、困境并

提出了改革建议，同时批评了监管的严苛

和缺失。就算是在小额信贷已经得到中央

首肯的今天，当人们真地想去做影子银行

时，各种监管不力、不作为以及政策政令

的不畅通、地域的差异化等，就成了实实

在在的阻力。如万穗小额贷款公司在面对

绝对权威的银监会和各种监管下，在经历

内部权力斗争后，几近崩溃。后来才重振

信心找到了新起点。从中不难看出，投资

影子银行在实际运作中的风险之大。

张化桥认为国人应该感谢影子银行，

因为真实的通胀会被影子银行揭露无疑，

银行存贷比长期不合理的现象将得以遏

制，影子银行会触发存款保险制度的诞

生，与银行竞争可以刺激银行提高效率。

更重要的是，影子银行支持了上亿人的就

业。从这一点来说，影子银行在未来所起

的所用一定是至关重要甚至无可替代的。

阿里和淘宝刚出现之际，社会对其信

任度的考量也是极其严苛的。张化桥在提

及阿里巴巴和大多数电商时，对它们能在

很大程度上逃脱繁琐而苛刻的监管艳羡不

已，并对它们可能在将来撼动金融业抱着

无比的信心。尽管存在诸多不尽如人意之

处，但毕竟已在路上。影子银行正在经历

不安和焦虑期，或许能从阿里金融的今天

看到未来。

然而，从另一个角度看，今天的流动

性过剩、低利率、信贷扩张、高通胀、房

地产泡沫等都与影子银行密切相关。

通胀严重到了什么程度？为什么如此

严重？为什么民企和国企都热衷于贷款和

融资？为什么房地产价格居高不下？为什

么股市如此低迷？张化桥给出的答案只有

一个：低利率。低利率的问题也有其他经

济学者指出过。徐滇庆教授在他的《房产

税》一书中提到，即使开征房产税，房产

依然是中国人 主要的投资渠道，因为把

钱放入银行利率过低，所以还不如投入到

房产中。很多学者认为中国的税率扣除通

胀的因素实际为负。在这样的情况下，张

化桥认为贷款实际上就是一种“补贴”，

按揭买房更是一种福利。而股市去除通胀

的因素实际上并没有下跌多少，不是股价

下跌了，而是钱不值钱了。于是，就导致

了表面上的经济过热，而实际上却是制造

业在衰退。

如果说过去二三十年中国经济的负利

率和信贷失控导致信贷泡沫不能有效缩小

和释放，下一轮全球经济危机将很有可能

由中国引发。张化桥预言：“中国创造了

地球上 大信贷泡沫，如未能及时将泡沫

释放，将很可能成为新一轮环球金融海啸

的源头。” 这并非危言耸听。

居安思危，警钟长鸣是应有的思维

方式。要想让中国经济脱离险境，首先要

让政府这只手放开，转给市场这只“看不

见的手”来运作，以求真正藏富于民。再

者，政府的决策应该更专业，而不是拍着

脑袋做决定，更不能掩盖问题。

真实的通胀会被影子银行揭露无遗

December 201308

2013 8

(Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group) (TravelSky Technology Limited) (Xingfa) 40 (P&G)(Dow Chemical) (Unilever)

(TravelSky) IT

(Sany) (Self Electronics) (ZTE)(Haier) (Hisense)

(The Coca-Cola Company) (UPS)

(Delta Air Lines) 40(Georgia Ports Authority)

2014

Georgia.org sjacobs@georgia.org Seth Jacobs

Georgia, USA:Where the World Does BusinessAs Governor of the state of Georgia, I, Nathan Deal, am proud of Georgia’s strong ties with China in key sectors such as agriculture, education, government, tourism and business. Continuing to cultivate this relationship remains a priority for the state.

In August 2013, I led a high-level delegation of state officials and business leaders to Shanghai, Qingdao and Jinan to celebrate Georgia’s new presence in China and to strengthen relations. We were overwhelmed with your generous hospitality and tremendous enthusiasm for our state. The members of the delegation cannot say enough good things about their experiences in each city. It was incredible to see maximum capacity crowds attend all Georgia events.

During our visit, we welcomed Hubei Xingfa Chemicals Group and TravelSky Technology Limited to our Georgia business community. Xingfa, which exports products to more than 40 countries worldwide and has strategic partner relationships with P&G, Dow Chemical and Unilever, is opening its U.S. headquarters and manufacturing plant in Effingham County near the coast. TravelSky is opening a research and development center in Duluth, Ga., to expand its services as the primary provider of IT solutions to China’s air travel and tourism industries. These companies join leading Chinese brands Hisense, Sany, Self Electronics, ZTE and Haier, who already have existing operations in Georgia.

Developing opportunities and building long-term business connections helps strengthen Georgia-China relations. Many of the 16 Fortune 500 companies headquartered in Georgia have operations in China, including The Coca-Cola Company and United Parcel Service (UPS). Aside from business relationships, numerous Georgia cities have sister-city or community agreements with Chinese cities or districts, and the state of Georgia has a particularly close relationship with the province of Shandong. Organizations like the Georgia China Alliance and the National Association of Chinese-Americans (NACA) facilitate connections and cultural exchanges.

Home to the world’s busiest and most efficient passenger airport and the fastest-growing container port in the U.S., Georgia imports more goods from China than from any other country in the world. China is also the second largest export destination for Georgia businesses. This trade is facilitated by multiple Delta Air Lines routes and more than 40 weekly shipping services to nine Chinese port cities from the Georgia Ports Authority in Savannah.

As businesses enjoy Georgia’s global accessibility, they can also stay connected to Chinese culture within Georgia. Our state is home to a large Chinese population and numerous Chinese language schools and publications. Many of the state’s internationally recognized universities have Chinese student associations, research and study abroad programs, including the Georgia Institute of Technology, Emory University and University of Georgia.

We are confident that you will find new ways to grow your business in Georgia. With the advantages our state offers, including a world-class logistics infrastructure, a talented workforce, competitive incentives and easy access throughout the Americas, Georgia continuously ranks among the top U.S. states to conduct business. Chinese companies also benefit from the low business costs, a moderate climate and an attractive quality of life.

While Georgia’s investment representative is based in Qingdao, our Georgia leaders visit China multiple times a year. In fact, Georgia is the only U.S. state confirmed to exhibit at the 2014 Qingdao International Horticultural Exposition. I encourage you to explore why Georgia is a great place to live, work, play and do business. Visit Georgia.org or contact Seth Jacobs at sjacobs@georgia.org.

THE HOUSE VIE W

Chinese companies are slowly

returning to the US equities

market after a series of dis-

astrous fraud cases in 2011. Investors,

surprisingly, have taken an interest. So,

hearts must have sank at 58.com and

Qunar in late October when a report

from short seller Muddy Waters sent

shares at the US-listed Chinese firm

NQ Mobile plummeting by 47%. The

Both China-based firms planned to list

on Nasdaq only days later.

Chinese IPOs in New York all but

dried up in 2012 after more than 150

Chinese firms were either delisted or

simply stopped filing reports.

The NQ short no doubt stirred up

painful memories among investors,

some of whom in 2011 discovered that

the Chinese firm they had bought into

had played with their books.

Still, it didn’t conjure enough nega-

tive sentiment to hurt 58.com. Quite

to contrary: The company that runs

an online classified ad business and

has been described as the Craigslist of

China saw its stock price rise in the

days after the IPO. Qunar, an online

travel outfit, didn’t do as well though.

While a far cry from the surge of

Chinese listings the US saw in 2009

and 2010, appetite for mainland firms

is growing. Two more Guangdong-

based firms, 500.com and Sungy

Mobile, plan to list soon. Shares at YY,

a social media application maker and

one of the two mainland firms to list

in the US in 2013, have climbed more

than 375% since its 2012 IPO.

Still keeping secretsIt’s a slow restart for Chinese firms in

New York and, by most measures, a

miraculous one. Just a year ago, many

market watchers expected all US-listed

Chinese companies to eventually be

struck from the trading boards in what

would have been the greatest slew of

delistings in market history.

At the time, the Public Com-

pany Accounting Oversight Board

(PCAOB), a body appointed by US

Congress and entrusted with monitor-

ing the accounting practices of US-list-

ed firms, was locked in a long, drawn-

out battle with Chinese regulators.

The PCAOB wanted access to

the working papers of the account-

ing firms that audit US-listed Chinese

firms. Without the power to thumb

through such documents in search of

irregularities, it threatened to dereg-

ister those accounting firms, which

included the China affiliates of Deloitte

& Touche, Ernst & Young, KPMG and

PwC. That, in turn, could lead to the

eventual delisting of Chinese compa-

nies in the US.

China refused, calling the paper-

work “state secrets” and threatening

harsh punishment to any company

that allowed US officials a peek into

their files. Finally in June, after several

years of negotiation, China gave the

PCAOB a little face, permitting it to

request working papers from Chinese

auditors for investigation – but only if

it could show reasons for suspicion.

With the return of Chinese firms,

investors should remember that

very little in the way of oversight has

changed between 2010 and today.

The deal between China and the

PCAOB will not prevent malpractices

in the future. Rather, cases of fraud can

only be checked after they have hap-

pened. Working papers are still very

much locked away from the prying

eyes of the US – a continual violation

of US securities regulations.

Meet me in the CaymansThis deficit in oversight isn’t the only

worry these days. There’s another

vestige of the past still lurking in US

equity markets called variable interest

entities, or VIEs.

A VIE is a method of structuring

a Chinese business so that it appears

to be a Chinese-owned firm and at

the same time a company owned by

investors in New York. Businesses opt

for this route because China does not

allow firms operating in sensitive sec-

tors such as the internet to list abroad.

However, it is possible to get

around this obstacle by establishing a

wholly owned foreign company and

then making a contractual ownership

agreement with a shell company based

offshore. Many successful Chinese

companies have used VIEs, includ-

ing Baidu, Sina, and Qihoo, to name

a few.

That’s not to say the continued use

of this structure – which is designed

to blur the lines of true ownership – is

wholesome. Anyone who bought into

Amid new Chinese listings, investors must learn from the past

China on Wall Street

December 201310

58.com or Qunar last week, both of

which use VIEs, should know the risks.

The simple fact that the listed

company is connected to the actual

Chinese-based firm is one of the big-

gest dangers of a VIE. In cases of mal-

practice, fraud or ownership disputes

that happen on the Chinese side of the

arrangement, investors in New York

have few legal means of getting to the

actual owners. Plus, even if investors

were to pursue legal action against the

company in China, the Chinese gov-

ernment doesn’t recognize the VIE.

NQ Mobile was structured with a

VIE. However, if investors take legal

action against the firm over the recent

accusations, it’s yet to be seen how

they will pursue the owners in China.

For 58.com and Qunar, Paul Gil-

lis, a professor at Peking University’s

Guanghua School of Management,

said that due to the structure of the

VIE, it will be impossible for the pro-

ceeds from the IPOs to be legally used

to finance their businesses in China.

“This, of course, is a huge risk fac-

tor,” he wrote in a blog entry late last

month, noting that 58.com has report-

ed significant losses. “If companies

cannot use the IPO proceeds to fund

losses in the VIE, how is the business

going to survive?”

Fool me twiceWhen it comes to eking out an exist-

ence without clear channels of capital,

Chinese firms have it well figured out.

Gillis pointed out that there were sev-

eral ways of getting capital raised in

the US back to the Chinese operation

through a VIE – albeit not legal ones.

Investors eyeing new Chinese IPOs

should keep well advised on the often

regulation-bending tactics companies

must go through to list in the US. They

should also recognize that they are

working in a regulatory environment

little changed from 2010.

A report from corporate inves-

tigator Kroll released last month

showed that international companies

doing business in China felt far more

exposed to fraud this year than they

did in 2012, largely because foreign

executives dozed off to the threat for

most of last year.

Wall Street should resist that kind

of collective amnesia and learn from

what transpired in the past.

December 2013 11

聚焦

综合

三中全会首提市场决定性中共十八届三中全会为未来制定了深化改

革政策，提出了涵盖多个领域的广泛的改

革内容。全会公报首次提出：建设统一开

放、竞争有序的市场体系，是使市场在资

源配置中起决定性作用的基础。这意味

着非公有制经济将有更大的发展空间和

机遇。

央行将退出常态式外汇干预央行行长周小川表示，央行将基本退出常

态式外汇市场干预，并将逐步取消对合格

境内投资者（QDII）和合格境外投资者

（QFII）的投资限额。央行目前每天为人

民币汇率设定中间价，即期汇率可在中间

价上下各1%的区间内浮动。央行副行长易

纲撰文表示，将逐步取消存款利率上限，

加快实现人民币资本项目可兑换。

跨境人民币结算将超4万亿央行预计，今年全年经常项目下跨境人民

币结算金额将突破4万亿元。目前人民币

已与包括欧洲央行在内的20多个境外货币

管理机构签署了货币互换协议约2.57万亿

元，跨境循环体系基本形成。

今年对外投资将达1000亿美元商务部部长高虎城近期表示，中国正在转

变成资本输出大国，保守估计今年中国对

外投资会接近1000亿美元。不久的将来，

中国对外投资会超过实际利用外资。

前三季度消费持续增长国家统计局数据显示，今年前三季度，消

费支出对GDP增长的贡献率是45.9%，拉

动GDP增长3.5个百分点。商务部研究院

消费经济部主任赵萍预测，2015年中国消

费总量可能会超过日本，2020年可能会赶

上美国，成为 大的消费国。

三名职工养一名退休职工国家人力资源和社会保障部披露，2012

年养老保险基金累计结余为2003年的13

倍，抚养比（参保职工人数/离退休人数）

在2012年达到3.09，10年间年均增长

达0.7%。

中石化输油管线爆炸事故11月22日凌晨，中国石化位于青岛经济技

术开发区的原油管道发生爆炸导致泄漏。

截至11月25日，事故遇难者已升至55人。

事故损失惨重，暴露出输油管道与城市排

水管网规划布置的不合理。

富人海外资产6580亿美元英国财富咨询机构财富洞察咨询公司称，

目前中国富人在海外拥有约6580亿美元

资产，约占其总资产13%，低于全球富人

20%~30%的海外资产平均水平。胡润和

中国银行研究发现，一半以上中国富豪正

考虑移民或已移居海外。

中国划设东海防空识别区中国11月23日正式宣布划设东海防空识别

区，涵盖东海大部分地区，包括钓鱼岛领

空。因与日本防空识别区有很大重叠，日

本政府反应强烈。美国白宫、国务院和国

防部轮番指责中国。目前世界上已有20多

个国家和地区建立了防空识别区，其中就

包括美国和日本。

市场与公司

境内外股市互联互通新加坡交易所11月25日宣布，已与中国

证监会合作，为中国企业搭建直接上市框

架，鼓励中国企业赴新加坡上市。央行行

长周小川近期提出，未来将取消QFII审

批，实现境内外股市互联互通。另外，A

股市场新股发行将实行注册制。中国证监

会主席肖钢表示，股票发行注册制改革是

要以信息披露为中心，不对公司的持续盈

利能力作出判断。

国际金价7个月下跌22%国际金价已从4月12日每盎司1599美元，

跌至11月27日每盎司1244美元，跌幅达

22%。年末中国市场迎来黄金产品销售旺

季，金价大跌也勾起了消费者抄底欲望。

高通遭反垄断调查国家发改委启动对高通公司的反垄断调

查。中国4G牌的照发放指日可待，中国移

动已在广州、深圳开通了1万个4G站点。

高通希望从中国4G技术中获得巨额专利授

权费。一些分析人士猜测，此次反垄断调

查可能有助于在与高通的专利授权费谈判

中占据主动。

未来将实现境内外股市的互联互通

December 201312

360诉腾讯垄断案开审高人民法院第一法庭于11月26日公开

审理奇虎360上诉腾讯滥用市场支配地位

案。这是《反垄断法》出台以来， 高院

审理的首例互联网反垄断案。该案源于

2010年的“3Q大战”，双方曾分别起诉

对方。今年3月广东高院的一审判决认为，

腾讯并不具有市场垄断地位。奇虎360上

讼的主张是，判令腾讯停止滥用市场支配

地位的行为，并要求腾讯赔偿1.5亿元。

上市房企否认欠缴土地增值税中央电视台报道，调查发现，2005~2012

年间，45家知名房企应交而未交的土地

增值税总额超过3.8万亿元，其中包括

SOHO中国、富力、万科、招商地产等。

随后十余家上市房企公开否认欠缴土地增

值税，国税总局也表示该报道对税收政策

和征管方式存在误解误读。

李嘉诚再抛售在港资产李嘉诚旗下公司在11月26日前的一周内

两度出售在港资产，共套现近13亿港元。

市场分析人士认为是“香港房地产破灭信

号”。李嘉诚否认“撤资”，但旗下公司

加大了对欧洲等地的投资并购。

比特币疯涨近80倍比特币成为 受关注的投资领域之一。

今年1月，一个比特币兑换人民币100元

至200元，10月中旬涨至约1000元，11

月迅速飙升，11月19日盘中冲高至8000

元。分析人士认为，比特币价格走高的主

因是中国投资者进场。由于比特币不能与

世界主要流通币种交易兑换，投资风险极

大。

分析与预测

沪七条影响有限随着近期上海房价的持续上涨，上

海市住房保障和房屋管理局于11月8日发

布了房地产市场调控政策相关措施（简称

“沪七条”）。高力国际认为该政策的出

台旨在进一步抑制投资型需求，限制部分

改善型需求，并 终达到抑制房价增长的

目的。该政策旨在对购房者予以警示信

号，而实质性影响却十分有限。此轮新政

的出台预计将会对上海住宅物业租赁市场

产生小幅影响，促使部分潜在买家暂缓置

业计划，转而选择租赁住房。租赁需求的

增加预计将推动住宅租金小幅上升。从长

期来看，为促进房地产市场的健康发展，

采取综合性的调控手段十分有必要。通过

集体土地的流转来增加新增供应，房产税

的有效实施以及开拓国内投资者的投资渠

道（而非投资住宅物业）等手段来 终引

领市场平衡发展。

预测今明两年GDP增速11月汇丰中国制造业PMI初值降至

50.4。摩根大通中国首席经济学家朱海斌

发布研究报告称，10月经济活动数据略

好于预期，考虑到11月制造业PMI初值，

短期内增长前景仍稳健。但第三季度可能

已经触顶，未来几个季度增长势头将放

缓。预测今年和明年全年中国GDP增速为

7.6%和7.4%。

中国国际金融有限公司发布报告称，

中国政府可能将明年GDP增长目标下调至

7%。目前，政府正决心推行结构性改革，

引领中国经济走上更具持续发展能力的道

路。考虑到内需扩张的惯性和全球复苏对

出口的帮助，该公司将明年GDP增长预测

从7.4%上调至7.6%；并预计消费贡献明

显上升，投资贡献下降。

中国宏观经济论坛（2013~2014）发

布的中国宏观经济分析与预测报告预计，

今年GDP增速为7.8%，CPI为2.7%；预

计2014年GDP增速将达7.7%，CPI将达

3.2%。中国人民大学经济学院副院长刘

元春认为，今年中国宏观经济基本延续了

2012年底部波动和复苏乏力的局面，宏

观经济景气状况相对稳定，波动中筑底的

趋 势 较 为 强 烈 。 预 计 全 年 G D P 增 速 为

7.8%，CPI增速为2.7%。国家发改委宏

观经济研究院常务副院长王一鸣认为，从

政策层面，明年经济保持7.5%的增长甚至

更高增速没有太大问题，中国经济正在进

入7%~8%的增长区间。

2022年中国GDP超美国渣打银行发布针对全球经济增长前

景的特别报告，预期中国新一轮改革的成

功将起到至关重要的作用，2013~2020

年 期 间 中 国 年 均 经 济 增 幅 将 达 7 % ，

2021~2030年期间年均增幅将达5.3%，

中国GDP规模将在2022年超过美国。

到2030年世界贸易额将增长4倍，达

到75万亿美元。城市化和中产阶层人数的

壮大，尤其在亚洲，是世界经济增长的推

动力量。到2030年，由中国和印度引领的

新兴市场在世界经济新格局的形成中发挥

更重要的作用，新兴市场占全球GDP份额

将由2010年的38%增至63%，日本以外

的亚洲其他地区将占39%。当前至2030年

70%的经济增长将来自于新兴国家。

新兴国家人口老龄化将拖累经济增

长。但对于中国这类劳动力即将减少的国

家而言，并非都是坏消息。劳动力的减少

或将促使劳工薪资上升，而这将鼓励企业

投资高附加值产品及加工链。老龄化有助

于形成经验更丰富的劳动力，这也将提高

生产率。在中国，未来10年仍有许多农村

地区的人口将进入城市，城市化进程还有

很长的路要走。

（本栏目内容根据公开信息整理）

December 2013 13

MONTH IN RE VIE W

NEWSBRIEFSChina government bond yields reach nine-year highYields on Chinese government debt

hit a nine-year high as Beijing contin-

ued to tighten monetary control. The

higher yields on government debt have

pushed up borrowing costs broadly,

creating obstacles for companies and

government agencies looking to tap

bond markets. Several Chinese devel-

opment banks, which have mandates

to encourage growth through targeted

investments, have had to either scale

back borrowing plans or postpone

bond sales. The rise in borrowing costs

and shrinking access to credit could

undercut the recent uptick in China’s

economy that global investors in stock,

commodity and currency markets have

cheered.

China factory growth slows in November: Flash PMIChina’s vast factory sector notched

up slower growth in November than

expected as new export orders shrank

according to a preliminary survey,

Reuters reported. The result met with

expectations the economy could lose

some of its vigor in the fourth quarter

as Beijing shifts its focus to structural

reform. The HSBC Purchasing Manag-

ers’ Index fell to 50.4 from October’s

final reading of 50.9. But it remained

above the 50 line which demarcates

expansion from contraction for the

fourth consecutive month, indicat-

ing the government has achieved the

stability it sought to push through

reforms.

Sinopec pipeline explosion kills 52 in QingdaoThe death toll from an oil pipeline

explosion in the port city of Qingdao

rose to 52, with 11 people still miss-

ing, said a statement by the Qingdao

government. A total of 136 people

were injured in the blast, with 10 in

critical condition. Petroleum from the

pipeline, which is owned by Sinopec

(600028.SHA), has contaminated

some 3,000 square meters of water and

18,000 people have had to be evacu-

ated. Sinopec chairman, Fu Chengyu,

has apologized and said it was cooper-

ating with authorities in investigating

the causes of the blast.

Chinese banks halt mortgage lending on limited quotasMore mainland banks have tightened

mortgage lending extensions as their

annual quotas run out and authori-

ties ramp up restrictions on prices, the

South China Morning Post reported.

A survey of 500 banks in 32 cities

by Rong360, a private search engine

for financial products, showed that

around 17% of mainland banks had

stopped extending mortgage loans to

buyers of first and second homes this

month, with more expected to follow

suit by the end of the year. The trend

first emerged last month in top-tier

cities, and has now spread to 17 cities.

OECD sees China growth at 8.2% in 2014The Organization for Economic Co-

operation and Development (OECD)

said China’s economic growth may

pick up from an expected 7.7% this

year to 8.2% in 2014, Reuters report-

ed. "Growth is accelerating and infla-

tion remains low, domestic demand

has led the turnaround," OECD said

in its latest report on the global eco-

nomic outlook. The OECD outlook

was rosier than a recent Reuters poll

that showed China’s economic growth

could slow to 7.4% in 2014 from an

expected 7.6% this year - the weakest

December 201314

in 14 years. The government is aiming

for 7.5% growth in 2013.

China to end normal currency intervention: PBOCChina’s central bank said it will loosen

its control over the value of the yuan

just a week after the country’s top lead-

ership concluded a major policy meet

in Beijing, Bloomberg reported. Peo-

ple’s Bank of China will “basically” end

normal intervention in the currency

market and broaden the yuan’s daily

trading limit, central bank governor

Zhou Xiaochuan said, without giving a

timeframe. The daily range will be wid-

ened in an “orderly way” as China seeks

to enhance the currency’s two-way flex-

ibility, Zhou wrote in an article in a

guidebook explaining reforms outlined

following a Communist Party meeting.

China details economic reform planA document issued late last week

filled in many of the details that went

missing in an earlier communiqu_

concerning reforms discussed at the

high-level party meeting known as the

Third Plenum, The Wall Street Jour-

nal reported. The 20-page document

amounted to a blueprint for reform.

It pledged to open the financial sector

and relax curbs on other sectors closed

to investors, allow prices of natural

resources to reflect market demand

and put more money in the pockets

of rural residents who were often left

out of the boom of the last decade. The

meeting ran November 9-12.

BHP Billiton confident in Chi-na's economyMining giant BHP Billiton top man-

agement is bullish about China’s eco-

nomic future, The Wall Street Journal

reported. Speaking at the company’s

annual general meeting, BHP’s chair-

man Jac Nasser and chief executive

said the Asian powerhouse’s policy

agenda is reassuring at a time when

slowing manufacturing activity and

weaker export orders are acting as a

drag on growth. BHP expects China’s

economy to expand by more than

7% next year and for some 250 mil-

lion people to move to cities from the

countryside by 2028, supporting com-

modity demand.

China considers changing how it measures GDPChina’s National Bureau of Statis-

tics is considering changing the way

it calculates the economy, the official

Xinhua News Agency reported, cit-

ing Xu Xianchun, the vice head of the

agency. Xu said the new system, which

is being adopted to reflect ambitious

reform plans announced after the

third plenum, will reckon spending on

research and development as a form of

fixed capital and calculate it into gross

domestic product. Xu also said that it

will be in line with the latest interna-

tional standards and it will be finalized

around the end of 2014 at the earliest.

Gold vault for 2,000 tons opens in ShanghaiA vault that can store 2,000 metric tons

of gold has been opened in Shanghai to

cater to the nation’s growing demand

for the precious metal, Bloomberg

reported. Owned by Malca-Amit Glo-

bal, a precious metals logistics firm,

the vault can also store diamonds, jew-

ellery and art, said Joshua Rotbart, a

manager with the company. The site

could hold bullion worth about $84

billion. Gold consumption in China

may increase 29% this year, overtak-

ing India as biggest user as lower prices

and higher incomes spur demand.

China to boost national security systemChina is planning to establish a new

"state security committee" with the

aim of integrating security apparatuses

and handling unrest issues at home

and abroad, Reuters reported, citing

an announcement at the conclusion

of the Third Plenum. Details of how

the committee will work and when

exactly it will begin operations were

left unclear in the announcement, car-

ried by official Xinhua news agency at

the end of a key meeting of the ruling

Communist Party.

December 2013 15

医改升级蕴藏商机解读二期医改并展望医疗健康产业的前景文 | 李玲 北京大学国家发展研究院中国经济研究中心经济学教授

专栏

医改 始 于 2 0 0 3 年 ，

到今年是医改的黄

金10年，也是医疗产业发

展的黄金10年。2006年确

定的医改方向是政府主导

回归公益性，建立覆盖城

乡居民的基本医疗卫生制

度。2006年我们在全球征

集了意见。从2009年医改

方案出台到去年称为医改一

期，现在是医改二期。二期方案就是去年

国家颁布的“十二五”医改规划。

中国迈入新时代，领导人的执政理念

和执政能力将会起到非常大的作用。十八

大关于医改方面的新内容，就是坚持要为

人民健康服务，按照保基本、强基层、建

机制的要求，重点推进医疗保障、医疗服

务、公共卫生、药品供应、监督体制综合

改革，完善国民健康政策。十八大关于医

改的新论述是基于过去4年医改的经验，将

重点推进医保、医疗、公共卫生、药品供

应、监督管理体制的综合改革，这是基层

医改的经验。而下一步“十二五”二期医

改是基层医改的升级版。

增加医疗投入二期医改政府会加大力度，因为占尽

天时地利人和。天时就是改革的环境，可

以看到大方向，医疗卫生领域是政府的职

责所在，应该要加大力度。

健康梦是比较实在的。1949年中国

人均期望寿命只有35岁，1978年增加到

68岁，当时是世界奇迹。我 近去芬兰参

加世界卫生组织的全球健康大会，与会的

很多专家还在谈中国经验，就是80年代以

前用很少的钱解决了这么多人口的健康改

善问题，也称为健康促进问题。

1978年到2003年的20多年中国创造

了经济奇迹，但是人均期望寿命的改善较

缓慢，从1978年的68岁增加到2003年的

71岁。医改以来的黄金10年，健康水平

有了大幅度改善，今年人均期望寿命达到

74.5岁。如果继续努力，到2020年实现小

康社会时，人均期望寿命水平可望达到79

至80岁。如果能达到这个目标，就超过了

美国的人均期望寿命。

新型城镇化不仅是给农民户口，而是

给他配套的城市公共服务，包括教育、医

疗、养老等。如果将中国农民的医疗卫生

水平提升到现在城市的平均水平，市场空

间将会非常大。

中国经济转型升级的新增长点其实是

医药、医疗耗材和健康产业，欧美、日本

早就将这些作为经济增长点。2008年金融

危机，美国经济下滑，但药品耗材、医疗

设备却是两位数增长。中国也正在往这个

方向转型，空间也非常大。

当然，对医改有些影响的是财政进

入低增长周期。经济放缓以后，财政收入

20%的增长势头难以保证，今年好一点能

保证两位数，不尽如意可能降到10%以

下。尽管政府财政收入在下降，但是投入

到医疗的钱一定会增加。这也是非常好的

消息。

从改革大环境来看，保障民生是这

届政府的重中之重，会从政策、财力方方

面面加大政策的倾斜度。从医改的基本面

看，前4年的医改为现在的医改奠定了比较

好的基础，前4年是在探路，现在各方共识

正在形成。

尽管前4年的医改取得不少成就，但

面临的压力也非常大。为什么？原因之一

个就是政府一万多亿投进去，老百姓感受

还不太明显。

医改的大方向不会变，力度还会加

大，特别是公立医院的改革，要求攻坚克

难。药品的生产流通使用以及到公立医院

这条利益链短时期内不会天翻地覆，但是综合医院的核心竞争力是医生团队

December 201316

金

展

定

回

乡

度

集

方

李玲

这个链条必须被打破的趋势已不可扭转。

财政总体会保持增长，地方政府层面则要

看经济的走向。

引进社会资本还有社会资本开放的力度，很多人

关心社会资本进入医疗领域，国家现在的

政策还是鼓励做增量，尤其是往高端领域

做，社会资本可以更多地满足多样性需

求，而这也是在高端。

很多人关注能不能进入公立医院的

改制，可能难度稍微大一些。目前共有

30000所医院，公立医院还不到14000

所，民营医院已占据半壁江山以上，但还

有很大投资空间。公立医院的转制成本非

常高，可能在一些小城市操作容易一些，

北京、上海还是有相当大的难度。现在社

会矛盾比较大，公立医院毕竟是给民众提

供医疗服务的主力军，社会资本应该更多

地考虑做增量。

全世界医院都是赔钱的，中国医院现

在赚钱就是在吃产业链，产业链被打碎以

后，也赚不了钱。目前是不可持续的非正

常状态。在国外你要坑谁就让他办医院，

医院是不赚钱的。美国较好的盈利性民营

医院的税后平均回报率也就在3%。

浙江、江苏那么多乡镇企业在30年

时间内成为跨国公司，为什么医院就没有

一家能升级到跨省？仅仅是政策原因么？

在医疗这个行业，民营资本进入牙医、美

容相对风险低一些。而综合性医院的核心

竞争力是医生团队，把专家、医生聚在一

起不容易，不服从是知识分子的强项，不

像管理企业那么容易，要像管企业那样根

本管不了。很多民营资本也在投医院，

后效果不是太好，能不能首先聚起一个团

队，再就是怎么管理好，但是非常难。

社会资本进入医疗产业空间非常大，

产业链很长。具体投资哪个领域建议仔细

考察国外的情况，国外的发展趋势就是我

们将来要走的。看看欧美的医院到底有多

赚钱，再决定投或不投。

创造全新产业这一轮改革是医保整合的问题，现在

三大医保职工、居民、新农合肯定要变成

一家，到底哪一家还没定，不过一定要整

合。从未来趋势看，医保会越来越多地介

入到医院的管理，包括费用的控制、药品

耗材器材的采购。北京正在酝酿直接由社

保招标采购所有的药材、耗材，管理力度

和控制度都会加强。三大医保整合后力量

会更大。

还有药品政策的调整，发改委还会

降价，支付方介入采购会成为趋势。 近

很大的变化是政府采购的国产化，包括政

府用车、各种耗材、办公用品都开始国产

化，这也是国际趋势。下一步支付方社保

进入采购，介入药品耗材器械采购，国产

化一定是长远的趋势，投资空间非常大。

中国是13亿人口的大市场，而且还是即将

老龄化的市场，相应的药材、器材器械的

市场空间很大。

二期医改的走向就是医疗、医保、医

药的联动。可能是政府来联动，也可能通

过商业。 近刚刚出现的中国医药集团与

新乡市联合组建区域医疗服务平台，主要

是靠信息化手段来实施。现在改革要求医

药分开，而这是医和药的整合、医药公司

和医院的整合。

在健康产业方面，首先是相关的服务

业，特别是老龄还有健康维护的服务业，

还有一个就是信息产业。现在是大数据时

代，健康信息不仅可以服务于客户，其本

身就是资源，可以从中开发出无穷无尽新

的服务和新产业。马云美其名曰“退出阿

里巴巴”，其实他是进入阿里金融或者阿

里大数据创造出来的新产业。在医疗健康

产业，信息化是 好的机遇，中国难得的

机遇在于拥有13亿人口。把这些数据采集

起来就是金矿，就看怎么挖掘，创造出背

后的服务和新产业。

未来要建立的国家基本医疗卫生制

度，就是综合监督管理体系、多元投资体

系、整合医疗服务体系，就是全民终身健

康保障制度。而信息化是 好的手段，其

中各个人群和年龄的需求完全不同，完全

可以基于这个大背景来找出投资增长点，

在创造利润的同时也为全民健康服务。

（根据作者在清科中国医疗健康产业

投资大会上的演讲整理）

2020年中国人均期望寿命有望达到80岁

December 2013 17

COLUMN

Accounting manipulation has always been a problem in China – but is it also a trading op-portunity? By Dr. Chen Xin

Playing with the numbers

Th e a c c o u n t -

i n g e n v i r o n -

ment in China

is famously opaque at

best. This has led to cases

of manipulation at list-

ed Chinese companies

which have sometimes

cost investors dearly.

But there is also another

way to consider accounting manipula-

tion in China – look at it as a trading

opportunity.

Stock market trading in China

takes place in a complex environment,

much different to that in say London

or New York. Existing laws are practi-

cally useless in protecting small inves-

tors. Regulators face conflict of interest

when state-owned-enterprises (SOEs)

are involved in manipulation – execu-

tives and controlling shareholders are

rarely punished severely for violations.

Market players tend to be short-term

speculators, ignoring most signs of

accounting manipulation.

Compared with share prices in the

equities markets of developed econo-

mies, share prices in China have a much

higher synchronicity with the over-

all market, suggesting either a lack of

valuable firm-specific information, less

informed traders and investors, or both.

In economic theory, such an envi-

ronment creates pricing inefficiency

and therefore the potential for abnor-

mal returns. A 2010 study led by Yu

Tong, a professor at the University

of Rhode Island, demonstrates that

investment strategies based on funda-

mental analysis do not perform well in

China. This is because of the manipu-

lation of accounting numbers and the

noise introduced by a large number of

speculators.

To arbitrage the pricing errors in

the Chinese equities market, investors

need instead the ability to see con-

trolling shareholders’ and executives’

incentives, and to predict the account-

ing manipulation that can take place.

Companies listed in China manipu-

late their accounting in a variety of

ways. These include recognizing rev-

enue or expenses either too early or

too late; artificially adjusting non-

cash expenses, such as provisions and

depreciation; and manipulating asset

purchase prices. Reporting false oper-

ating cash inflows or untrue invest-

ment cash outflows is also a manipula-

tion tactic.

These following cases illuminate

the ways that manipulation can work,

and the trading opportunities that may

make themselves available.

Steel giantsIn October 2008, Anshan Steel Group,

the second-largest steel maker in

China, announced an issue of put

options to holders of a previous set

of put options for Panzhihua Steel

(000629.SZ), with an exercise price of

RMB10.55, and an exercise period in

April 2011. A put option is a contract

between two parties to exchange an

asset at a specified price and by a pre-

determined date.

The goal was to prevent Anshan

from having to buy the original

options at a price of RMB9.59 per

share at a time when Panzhihua’s stock

was trading at about RMB8 apiece, a

result which would have cost the com-

pany roughly US$2.9 billion. But to

escape from an even greater financial

loss, Anshan and its subsidiary were

then faced with the need to somehow

get the stock price above RMB10.55

sufficiently in advance of the April

2011 exercise period.

The first step in their strategy

was to take what’s commonly called

a ‘big bath’ (pulling lots of expenses

and losses into the current year, and

deferrring revenue and income into

the following year for full-year 2009).

The second was to report a dramatic

income rebound for full-year 2010,

with the results to be made public in

March 2011, in time to drive up the

stock price before the exercise period.

They acheievd the first step in April

2010, reporting a record RMB1.6 bil-

lion loss for 2009.

To achieve the second step, they

manipulated 2010 earnings in several

ways. Most dramatically, they reported

a 25% reduction in administration and

other expenses, claiming more than

RMB1 billion in savings.

However, the manipulated earn-

ings alone might not have been good

December 201318

i

b

o

e

w

c

B

Dr. Chen Xin

Dr. Chen Xin is Associate Professor

of Accounting at the Antai College of

Economics and Management, Shang-

hai Jiao Tong University (SJTU), and

a lecturer for the Global Executive

MBA in Shanghai, a collaboration

between SJTU and the University of

Southern California.

enough to drive the stock price above

the RMB10.55 exercise price. So at

the end of 2010, Anshan announced a

restructuring plan to swap its overseas

iron mine assets with the steel manu-

facturing assets of Panzhihua, a classic

related party transaction with conse-

quent opportunities for manipulation.

Anshan exaggerated the future prof-

itability of the overseas iron mines,

driving the share price of Panzhihua

above RMB14 before the exercise peri-

od. By the end of 2011, the stock had

dropped to about RMB5 and hasn’t

regained its previous levels since.

How to profit from such a situa-

tion? The trajectory of the stock was

rather predictable from the time of the

second put option, because the con-

trolling shareholder and the executive

committee had fortunes or political

futures at risk if they didn’t deliver on

their two-step strategy.

Therefore, traders could have

bought the stock in the six to 12

month period before the exercise, ben-

efitting from the downturn following

the company’s engineered big bath. Or

they could have sold or shorted shortly

before the exercise period, by which

time the company would have safely

inflated the stock price.

The two heaviesAnother reason that companies occa-

sionally engineer big baths in China is

that the securities regulators put severe

trading restrictions on firms that

report two consecutive years of loss.

Those that see three consecutive years

of losses are delisted.

Therefore, if a company can’t avoid

taking a loss in a fiscal year, they may

try to delay revenue recognition and

pull expenses forward, or inflate or

deflate outright, engineering a big

bath. Doing this is aimed at improving

their chances of being in the black in

the following year; if a company is on

the edge, they may do the opposite to

stay in the black for the current year.

An example can be seen in the

case of two state-owned construc-

tion machinery makers. In April 2013,

China First Heavy Industries (601106.

SH) and China Second Heavy Indus-

tries (601268.SH), both with similar

declines in operating cash flow due to

weak conditions in their sector, report-

ed dramatically different results for

full-year 2012. Why?

First Heavy was ‘on the edge’, so

the company used similar accounting

manipulation to that discussed above

to boost 2012 reported income: Exag-

gerating revenue and non-operating

income, while finding ways to deflate

reported costs. Second Heavy had no

way to manipulate its way into the

black, so the company did precisely the

opposite: Engineer a big bath.

Given the weak institutional envi-

ronment in China, there is little that

investors can do to prevent listed firms

from accounting manipulation. Thus,

it is very important for investors to

understand the motives of managers

or controlling shareholders. Inves-

tors should in particular pay attention

to scheme of stock incentive plans,

unlocking of restricted shares held

by private controlling shareholders,

potential special treatment of stocks

and seasonal equity offerings etc. With

such alerts in mind, investors can bet-

ter understand financial statements of

Chinese listed firms and make smart

investment decisions.

Investors should pay close attention to companies’ numbers to spot chances to trade.

December 2013 19

如何走出低谷期寻找新平衡的调整过程难免是痛苦的文 | 张庭宾 中华元智库创办人

专栏

这一轮中国的探底和

调整应该会比2008

年深，会比1997年深，无

法再通过推诿逃避或寅吃卯

粮就可以轻松过关。接下来

可能会有三个疑问：第一，

中国探大底时期会有多痛

苦？第二，为什么痛苦期是

十年，而不是一两年，三五

年？第三中国通过怎样的改

革才能走出来？

先回答第一个问题，若发生危机，

中国人未来3～5年的生活会痛苦到什么

程度？本人借用一位知名企业家的话来回

答—中国人的生活未来能够温饱就不错

了。

旧平衡无以为继后，必须要寻找新的

平衡。这个过程就是先经济金融危机，再

经济结构调整，生活方式的调整，各种利

益关系的调整，调整的过程就是改变习惯

的过程，适应现实变化的过程，注定不会

是舒服的，或者说难免是痛苦的。

重建新平衡建立物质新平衡的方法有：提高资源

使用效率；更低的物质消耗水平；更合理

均衡的财富分配。提高资源使用效率包括

新能源（潜力 大，能够提供无限干净能

源的是氢核聚变）、新材料；循环经济提

高资源循环；提高效率，降低交易和流动

环节的损耗，互联网扮演重要角色。因为

提高资源使用效率仅是量变，如果仍不足

够再平衡，只能降低中国人均的物质消耗

水平，以达成低水平的可持续平衡，如果

不主动，就会以危机的方式被动平衡。

然而，一旦涉及更合理均衡的财富分

配，难度立刻就上升很多，因为既得利益

者一般不会主动让渡利益，而且会千方百

计维护甚至强化既得利益。中国的医疗体

制改革屡屡碰壁就很具有代表性。

现行医疗体制的 大弊端有两个。第

一，由于政府财政收入主要用于自身开支

和基建投资，致使对于医疗的公共投入严

重不足。第二，政府投入和市场资源都集

中到少数三甲医院，其公共服务性与市场

边界混淆不清，医疗资源主要被官员和富

人们优先享用，社会公众的医疗资源严重

匮乏，或不得不自掏腰包高价购买。

医改提出多年，一直反反复复，屡

屡无功而返，找到合理解决方案真那么难

吗？本人相信，上天每制造一把锁一定会

配一把钥匙，关键在人有没有足够的耐心

和智慧找到这把锁的钥匙（解决方案），

更重要的是这个人愿不愿意去开这把锁

（这把锁锁着本来可能就是他得利）。故

此，本人在2008年12月曾撰文提出了一套

完整的医改解决方案，强调解决好七个辩

证关系。

其中， 重要的是三个关系。第一，

在市场配置资源的基础功能与公共医疗保

障的关系中，本人认为，市场能做愿做的

让市场承担，市场不愿做的公立医院来

做；政府不得干预民营医院的经营管理，

民营医院不得分享公共医疗蛋糕。这样既

充分调动市场和医保两个资源，又使双方

的边界非常清晰，既避免了官员对民营医

院寻租，又避免了民营医院窃取公共资

源。

第二，在公共投入补供方（医院）还

是补需方（患者）的关系上，公立投入除

了基本工资和基本医疗条件属于补供方之

后，其他投入应当直接补给需方，由医保

人根据不同公立医院的医疗服务水平选择

就医，即公立医院医护人员的奖金和福利

均要通过与别的公立医院竞争得来，这会

倒逼公立医院奖勤罚懒，优胜劣汰，提高

医疗服务水平。

第三，公共投入来源问题，即中央、

理应加大对于医疗的公共投入

December 201320

年

法

粮

可

中

苦

十

年

张庭宾

地方、企业和个人财力匹配问题。公共投

入不足问题才是医改屡屡进二退三的核心

原因。企业和个人上缴了各种税收之后，

公共投入的来源毫无疑问主要来自政府投

入，世界各国均是如此。另外，中国是社

会主义国家，土地和矿产资源属于全民所

有，除对经营者合理的报偿外，其主要收

益应当全民共享，划入社保体系 为合

理。

难的显然是第三个关系。它的理顺

与政府职能转换、政府财政支出方向密切

相关。如果财政支出大部分用于投资和行

政开支，那社保资金难免捉襟见肘。

再平衡绕不开政府如果中国政府成本降低到国际水平，

则意味着中国政府要实现由现在的“全能

管制投资型政府”向“有限责任服务型政

府”的实质性变革，则中国社会负担将大

大下降，民间活力将大大提高，社会保障

来源将大大充实，足够保障下岗公务员的

基本生活。这在中国再平衡中处于至关重

要的地位。

然而，幅度如此大的行政体制改革

谈何容易。要想行政体制改革成功，需要

形成一种倒逼机制，出现了一场较大的的

经济和金融危机，楼市崩溃，土地财政破

产，政府与民争利难以调和，要捍卫政权

必须行政体制改革，倒逼出背水一战的环

境。同时，操作中必须巧妙分化改革阻

力，使官员们由捍卫共同利益变成利益的

竞争者。

本人建议如下行政体制改革方案：将

省级行政单位扩大到50~60个；将市级行

政单位全部撤掉；强化县级行政单位；对

乡镇行政单位实行民主化。

这个方案的好处是，将中国古代高

效率的郡县制和落实社会主义民主有效结

合起来。在秦汉时，中国行政体系主体实

施的是中央、郡、县三级，效率很高，后

来随着人口增加，管理难度较大，演变到

明代的中央、省、府、县等四级，清朝的

省、道、府（厅州）、县五级，机构日益

臃肿，效率更加低下，中央对于地方的监

督更加困难。当今人口虽然更多，但是随

着互联网和交通的高度发达，管理效率惊

人升级，管理半径都大大增加，完全可以

将中央、省、市、县、乡五级减为中央、

省、县、乡四级。

在通过减少层级，强化中央政府自

上而下监管的同时，还应自下而上的扩大

基层民主，将现在的村级民主直选，上推

到乡（镇）级，即对人大代表实现直接

选举，人大代表直接选举（和罢免）乡

（镇）长，由乡（镇）人大给政府定职

能、定编制和定开支。这不仅可以推动政

府职能转化，大大降低乡镇政府成本，还

可以有效缓解基层官民矛盾。

这个过程其实也是一个人性再平衡的

过程，是动态的，而不是动荡的。

开锁者最关键找到钥匙—未来的变革方案还不

是 难的， 关键的是，即便找到这把钥

匙，交给能开锁的人，他有没有打开这把

锁的力量和意志，能否拥有可以安心开锁

的外部和平稳定环境。

即便找到了这把钥匙，要打开当今中

国的这把锁—可堪称为人类迄今为止

错综复杂的难题，还需要极大的勇气、智

慧、威力和耐心……

安 心 开 锁 的 国 际 环 境 并 不 容 易 得

到……

此外，中国官员和民众也尚未做好

倒逼改革的精神准备。土地财政虽不像原

来那么增长，尚可勉强维系，地王尚能涌

现，钱虽难借还能借到。大多数百姓仍能

喝酒吃肉，有房有车尚可虚荣，仍然缺乏

改变现实中不合理规则的意愿。

因此，倘若中国经济金融发生一次

危机，也并非全是坏事，它可以促使国人

猛醒，进行再平衡的变革。不过，在政治

上树立变革权威，对外能够震慑觊觎，创

造出变革时需要的稳定国际环境。这大概

需要3~4年的时间。即便启动了改革，由

于此再平衡改革的难度和深度都远远超过

30年来的任何一次，甚至在中国历史上也

是前所未有的挑战，如果能用5~6年的时

间基本梳理到位就已经难能可贵了。换言

之，10年之后，中国人才能品尝变革的

成果。

这也算是我对中国能否走出低谷，中

国痛苦为何会是10年的回答。（本文经授

权摘自机械工业出版社华章公司《美元复

兴十年？中国痛苦十年？》的结语，有删

节）

必须进行行政体制改革

December 2013 21

Q&A

Tips and tricks on how to invest in the world’s second-largest economy

Profi t from China

China’s economic develop-

ment means that its markets

and the companies doing

business here are attracting greater

attention from international investors

than ever before.

However, investing directly into the

country is not straightforward; China

imposes restrictions on foreign invest-

ments in its capital markets. It’s not

possible to directly invest in A-shares,

while B-shares that are denominated in

US dollars may sometimes lack liquid-

ity. Strict controls limit the movement

of capital between borders.

But that doesn’t mean there aren’t

ways to profit. Philip Cheng, Adjunct

Associate Professor of Finance at the

University of Science and Technol-

ogy in Hong Kong and a former sen-

ior investor, offers China Economic

Review readers his tips on how to play

the China story as well as how to think

more clearly about investment deci-

sions in general.

Cheng worked at Wall Street

investment bank JPMorgan Chase for

21 years before becoming the Chief

Investment Officer at the Taiwan

branch of New York-based MetLife,

the largest life insurance company in

the US, where he a oversaw a portfolio

with total assets under management of

approximately US$2 billion.

In July, Taming the Money Sharks,

the English-language version of

Cheng’s Hong Kong bestseller, a sur-

vival guide for retail investors, was

published by Wiley.

Through which channels can foreign investors get exposed to the China story?There are three ways to deal with your

situation. Number one is for the new

investors. I would encourage them to

start with the shares listed in Hong

Kong for the simple reasons that in

Hong Kong for over 50 years, the

H-shares have been more or less west-

ernised in their approach in format-

ting the information, in documenting

the companies. You can get exchange

information via many sources.

The second one is through Ameri-

can Depository Receipts. They have a

benefit for most international investors

because the format is so well known in

so many websites from Yahoo! Finance

to Fidelity to MSN. Once you get an

idea, the potential investor can com-

pare so-called “Chinese stocks” with

the ones that they are already used to,

the international stocks, so they can

make a better judgement as to which

one is a better buy.

Number three: Non-Chinese com-

panies. They are foreign companies but

they are benefitting from China trade.

For Australia, for example, it would

be the major mining companies. For

the US, it would be some of the major

companies already exporting with a

lion share of their business like certain

fertilizer companies. With European

companies, some of the pharmaceuti-

cals would be good candidates. So here

are the three approaches that I would

recommend before you actually plant

down your money directly into Shang-

hai shares or Shenzhen shares.

What advice do you have to offer based on the theories in your book to investors consid-ering investing in China related stocks?I would say first of all, the financial

market structure in China is very dif-

ferent. Although the terminology on

the surface may seem to be the same

with America or with Europe, once

you go into the market they really

mean different things. You should

know that in China, companies adopt

this Western terminology based on

their degree of sophistication across

many regions in this vast country.

Don’t just go with any company.

Industry focus is critical. If you’re in

December 201322

the consumer industry, stay with it.

Say you’re in the automobile indus-

try; you can buy into BMW or Fiat

or other reputable global automobile

manufacturers. Same thing in China:

You have China automobile compa-

nies and the industry is already big

enough for you to concentrate on

without going into another sector.

According to one account, there are

68 industries. That means even if you

don’t sleep, you will never be good

in so many industries, especially in

China.

The difference in terminology

makes the industry even more compli-

cated. So the gross margin, for exam-

ple, is not what you think the gross

margin is, as accounting treatment

may be slightly different. So with all

supposedly common terminology, you

need to know the industry to compare

what is what you think and what is not

what you think.

China is a particularly opaque market at times. What advice do you have for investors trying to find information about the China stock market?There’s a lot of information on the

China market recently and almost eve-

rybody wants to be able to produce

something because there’s obviously

huge demand for Chinese stocks. But

one thing I would caution right away

is try to understand where the author

is coming from and the author’s back-

ground and what the personal interest

of the author may be. For example, is

the author representing a large inter-

national bank or a large Chinese bank?

Are they presenting some information

that may be of special interest to some

organisation? Or are they truly giving

fairly good information in the sense

that they’re neutral?

The language ability is obviously

a determinant as to whether you are

reading Chinese articles or English

articles. If you wish to start with the

English articles, Hong Kong will be a

good start.

Some overseas-listed Chinese companies have been accused of fraud in recent years, knock-ing investor confidence in them. What steps can investors take to understand such stocks better, to make better informed invest-ment decisions?As in any stock investments, in China

or elsewhere, one must understand

the characteristics of the respective

industry. The behaviour of financial

indicators follow the industry struc-

ture, e.g. the gross margin of the high

tech industry is generally higher than

that of the grocery business due to

the nature of operational parameters.

This may be further magnified due to

cultural and developmental factors in

China.

When a Chinese company says,

“Ok, we have 25% growth in certain

things,” do you know the nature of

that industry? Because if the indus-

try is very new, when you have US$10

going to US$20, that’s a 100% increase

because it is so young. So, many of

us are mesmerized by the percentage

increase. But that’s because the base

is so small, especially in China, where

many bases are very small. When IBM

was growing say, 15%, that’s a lot of

growth, but when a small IT compa-

ny in China grows 25%, it maybe not

that much. Take that into account in

China.

Risk is obviously an important consideration for investors. Your book talks about four main types of risk – market, credit operational, legal and political. Do China related stocks have any unique risks?I think the risk is not that much dif-

ferent than other stocks. As to the

nature of the risk, let’s take credit risk

for example. The credit risk is relative

in the US with a major credit agency’s

AAA, AA ratings etc. But in China,

because we are all basing risk rating

of credit on financial information

and financial information is based on

audited statements and the auditing

process may or may not be not be the

same as in the US. It’s not good or

bad but just maybe different, and one

needs to be cognizant of this.

And so, one must be aware of the

different auditing process in China

versus another country. I would

encourage investors to be physically in

China, even on vacation or holidays,

to talk to as many people as possible.

Especially to the so-called rank and file

employees in the financial industry,

the accounting industry and the audit-

ing industry.

Our judgement, by and large, comes

from the three key financial statements

from the company and if we do not

ask enough questions, we may make

the wrong decisions. So it’s the same

thing with the other risks. Everything

is comparative.

December 2013 23

P29 P29 下一座金矿下一座金矿

P36 P36 移动变革营销移动变革营销

P40 P40 移动阅读制高点移动阅读制高点

移动智能时代移动智能时代基于移动互联网的新技术新产品层出不穷基于移动互联网的新技术新产品层出不穷

下一座金矿探索可穿戴设备对于中国企业的机遇和挑战文 | 晗军

可穿戴设备是可以直接穿在身上或整

合到用户衣服或配件上的便携式设

备，目前主要产品包括智能手腕带、智能

手表和智能眼镜等。虽然还远未普及，但

市场前景十分看好。从Google Glass到三

星智能手表，再到苹果iwatch，全球商业

巨头纷纷涉足。美国信息咨询公司HIS发

布的一份科技白皮书显预计，到2016年全

球可穿戴设备将达到3900万~1.7亿件的年

出货量。

智能眼镜Google Glass的问世引燃

了人们对可穿戴设备的畅想，使之成为全

球炙手可热的年度话题，被视为智能手机

后又一波移动互联网浪潮，更有人称2013

年为“穿戴式装置元年”。可穿戴设备究

竟具有怎样的神奇魔力？中国企业的发展

机会在哪里？创业者该如何进入？发展瓶

颈又在哪里？

抓住机遇吸引土曼科技联合创始人钱江的可穿

戴设备首先是Google Glass，它的理念

是使用电脑设备将人的眼和手都解放了。

现在经常看到一个场景就是两个人在咖啡

馆里坐着谈话，手机不时地振一下，然后

眼睛盯着手机看，感觉很不礼貌。钱江说

道：“Google Glass通过语音控制解放

你的手，它的输入基本是语音控制，通过

把光电子打到你的眼睛里，使你能看到屏

幕，但不会影响与其他人的接触。所以让

我感觉非常神奇。”

但在使用过程中发现，现实总是比

理想要严酷一些。Google Glass使用5

到10分钟边上就发热，让人受不了。第

二个问题是屏幕不错，不会挡着视线，但

是太小，眼睛不舒服。真正要看新闻内容

时都用手机来看，这个设备虚拟现实的屏

幕展现方式还不太理想。第三个问题是

功耗太大，基本上用一个小时就得充电，

比手机还要耗电。这些缺陷促使钱江思

考，Google Glass还没有做到 好，怎样

才能做到 好？这是他决定做智能手表的

初衷。

英特尔投资部中国区总监卜君全认

为，Google Glass在技术上没有那么高难

度，却很有潜力，市场接受度应该很高。

投资机会在哪里？他觉得技术门槛大多是

在软件及后端产品开发上，国内创业者要

找到能够做这类软件的公司不难，而在深

圳或浙江应该很容易找到能够做这类硬件

的企业。

钱江认为，可穿戴设备的机会并不

只存在于智能眼镜、智能手环手表、充电

鞋、卫星导航这些概念性的设备，机会是

全方位的，不一定非要从头开始做这样的

设备。电池和材料领域也有很大机会，可

穿戴设备面临的问题是电池能否有突所

破，如果没有突破将很困难。电池还可以

做到可弯曲和超薄，能否将芯片的功耗降

下来也很关键，传感器也有很多发展机

会，如血液传感器还做不到便携。这些是

横向的机会。在可穿戴设备潮流来临时，

一些产品是会被整个行业所使用的，属于

基础性产品。此外，还有纵向的垂直领

域的机会。如运动健康的一些应用，很多

厂商与其自己做手环不如考虑与手表厂商

合作，还有医疗设备的应用和医疗健康数

据的采集等。不是所有参与者都去做智能

手表或手环，更大的机会可能存在于产业

链参与方形成的生态圈。这是钱江看到的

机会。

英特尔在可穿戴设备领域将扮演什

么角色？英特尔以前在移动领域并不特别

强势，事实上是后来者。有些手机和平板

电脑已经看到英特尔的产品，但毕竟是后

来者。在可穿戴设备领域也在尝试开

December 2013 25

发。“我们会有更多省电或低功耗的产

品，英特尔不会正面对抗，因为这不是我

们的优势。”卜君全说道。

可穿戴设备目前所处的阶段，有点像

2007年的安卓系统，都在质疑，只有圈内

比较热。钱江认为，恰恰这个时期 值得

去尝试，等到一拥而上，如2011年4月以

后移动互联网在中国的投资高潮，资本方

都愿意投了，实际上已经拼成了红海。风

险与机遇是并存的，不愿意冒险就会失去

机会。

国内先驱中国企业在可穿戴设备开发和产品

发布上也已开始行动。百度可穿戴设备网

站已上线，推出了咕咚手环和inWatch两

款产品，还将发布三款可穿戴设备，百度

云可以提供图像人脸识别、语音识别等

技术。据称，百度已建立了包括硬件、

软件、云服务在内的可穿戴式设备研发

团队。

正式成立于去年8月的映趣科技是专

注于智能腕上设备的公司，2011年底就在

开发智能腕表，目前团队大概有50多人，

也获得过一次较大的天使投资。从今年8月

至今已接受了1万台订单，正在陆续发货，

目前已有60%交付到客户手上。映趣科技

CEO王小彬表示，目前产品还不是太完

善，因为是测试版本，预定的1万台用户会

在3个月之内以旧换新升级。他的目标是开

发在手腕上能够解决各种用户不同需求的

产品，也即智能腕上设备。

咕咚网于2010年成立，那时还没有

可穿戴设备的概念，连软硬件整合的概念

也没有，咕咚网已经在做可穿戴设备了。

早期是连接PC，随着移动互联网的兴起，

做成了手机配件。专注的领域比较垂直，

围绕运动健康领域推出了一系列穿戴式产

品，包括热门的咕咚手环、健康称，正在

开发的还有可测量心率的自行车、跳舞毯

等。咕咚网CEO申波表示，目标就是提

供快乐的健身健康服务。网站可下载一款

免费手机软件咕咚运动，用户量已接近上

千万。网站在搜集用户的同时也开放API

（应用编程接口）。

快乐妈咪于今年1月成立。创始人陶

建辉去年10月就想做可穿戴设备，觉得

一定要挑没有人做过的产品，就选择了母

婴市场。第一款设备改造了胎影仪。目标

是想充分利用智能手机、移动互联网、大

数据对母婴行业的电子消费设备进行变

革。“希望通过这三个新技术改造传统设

备，我相信一定能够在这个垂直领域创造

出新的品牌。”他说道。

引领潮流可穿戴设备为什么这么火？是因为

Google Glass还是iwatch？还是其他什

么原因？可穿戴设备从广义来看早就出现

了，包括运动腕表，也算是小电脑，市场

上也已经有很多。为什么这个概念今年才

火起来？

映趣科技在进入智能穿戴领域后，默

默无闻地做了一年多，今年才火起来。王

小彬表示，当初可能是误打误撞，进入这

个领域是不想一直做山寨产品。映趣科技

当时有三家小公司，具备软硬件和设计能

力，王小彬想要做与别人不一样的产品。

第二个原因是很多企业都在考虑做手机，

手机是不是一定是终结者，不会变了？苹

果或三星的屏幕是不是足够大了？“我想

每个人都希望更大的屏幕， 好是电视

机，但总不能带着电视机跑，每个人只要

带上个人的预算处理中心，然后把数据放

在云端，走到哪里都有一台显示屏。考虑

到这样几个元素就进入了这个领域。”王

小彬说道。

对于可穿戴设备突然走红，申波认

为，从行业来说，穿戴式只是概念，应该

放在更大背景下来看。各大巨头都在做软

硬件结合，就像大脑一样，各种应用发展

到极致后，相对来说机会就比较少，怎样

封面故事

Google Glass在技术上没有那么高难度

December 201326

让互联网影响到实体世界？穿戴式设备就

是软硬件结合的分支。热潮是从Google

Glass开始，由巨头的推动而引发潮流，

这是趋势。

咕咚网开发可穿戴设备则与申波的

背景有关。之前他做过硬件开发，研究生

毕业后主要做软件和网络开发。因为两方

面都懂，在寻找商业模式时，就没有单纯

做硬件或软件，只是想给用户提供什么服

务，当服务需要硬件时就做硬件。公司一

开始就专注于运动健康领域，并采用软硬

结合的模式来实现。 初也是简单产品，

通过电脑上传数据，2010年已经开发出产

品，而且销售到了韩国。移动互联网兴起

后申波分析了用户的反馈，决定将硬件转

换成手机配件，这样用户的体验会更好，

而且对用户数据的分析、反馈也会更及

时。这样就将重心转移到了手机通讯，无

形中契合了穿戴式设备的概念。

九合创投创始人王啸认为，主要还

是与智能手机的兴起有关，因为可穿戴设

备与苹果公司密切相关。手机以前只能打

电话，不能进行软件操作，因为计算能力

差，操控比较差。为什么现在出现了可穿

戴设备？因为智能手机的CPU足够强，大

部分可穿戴设备都是智能手机的配件。所

以，智能手机计算能力是推动可穿戴设备

往前走的第一个关键点。第二个关键点，

运动传感器陀螺仪以前是卫星导航用的高

尖端设备，而且很贵，但苹果将它批量

化，推动了这一硬件设备的发展，价格只

有1美元左右，这也推动了传感器和可穿

戴设备的发展。而智能手机大规模的出货

导致很多器件成本大幅度降低。第三是资

本的推动，互联网领域的技术创新一定有

VC在推动。 后是因为网络的传播，一家

小公司的产品可以通过微博、微信进行传

播，让大多数用户快速接触到可穿戴设备

的前沿。王啸表示，这些因素直接导致了

可穿戴设备目前在国内比较火，但能不能

持续火下去，还要等待真正具有实用价值

的产品出现。

瓶颈问题学计算机出身的童子平关注这个领域

已经很多年。他曾想过给盲人做可穿戴设

备，帮助盲人认路。大学时代还设想过给

宠物、小孩做防丢失的设备，当时因为蓝

牙、传感器都没有配套，要么做不出来，

要么穿戴的感觉非常差，不像现在穿戴效

果这样好。苹果智能手机的兴起带动硬件

产业链大幅度的成熟和快速发展，才有了

近两三年软硬件的结合。他认为，可穿戴

设备是科技与时尚的结合，如果只是一种

潮流，只是潮流人士戴一下，并不会真正

成为投资人关注的行业，也不会成为创业

者愿意为之奉献的事业。但是他觉得可穿

戴设备是可以满足消费者深层次需求的，

包括以前的那些设想、开车时使用蓝牙

等。作为同创伟业董事总经理，从投资者

的角度出发，童子平认为这个领域已具备

了一定的时机。

王啸因为对可穿戴和软硬结合感兴

趣，投过一两家这方面的公司。他觉得可

穿戴设备领域不是特别好做，因为既有硬

件又有软件，需要大量的资金支持，还需

要市场宣传，市场难度比较大，只有相对

垂直且具有云端能力的公司才可能在竞争

中胜出。

可穿戴设备目前还存在着不小的瓶

颈。可穿戴设备是市场导向的产品，需要

营销引导，需要告诉用户产品很好。不是

功能导向，因为没有参照物，消费者可能

从来没有想过为什么要戴智能手环，很多

人新鲜感尝完后，就将产品送人了。荷多

天使创始人王利杰认为，可穿戴设备需要

的是炫耀，功能则是次要的。当一千万人

都戴着产品在街上走，而10%的人在意它

的功能，其他人不在意它的功能时，就是

很成功的营销。因此，营销人才很关键，

科技界缺少这样的人才，这是第一大挑

战。创业者要有办法将跨界人才整合到身

边，共同完成可穿戴设备的故事。他觉得

现在做可穿戴设备，知识欠缺很关键，不

知道有哪些新材料、新工艺能够帮助产品

提高，只知道有市场机会，但是根本不知

道市场上有多少好产品。投资人要做的就

是弥补这些缺陷，而不只是投钱。王利杰

对未来还是很看好，至少机会还在。他相

信中国一定会在可穿戴设备领域诞生另外

的“小米”。

陶建辉认为自己公司一定会解决硬件

问题，因为学费已经交够了；但在品牌营

销上，目前是大问题。申波也认为，除了

产品和服务之外，营销推广很重要，某种

意义上也是国内技术团队的短板。

如果想在可穿戴设备领域取得成功，

就要通过软硬件的结合，通过物联网的连

接进入云端、大数据平台，这样才能真正

形成核心竞争力。这是童子平的建议。清

科资本投资过类似的软硬件结合项目，董

事总经理王利朋认为创业公司必须想清

楚，做可穿戴设备希望给公司沉淀下来

值钱的是上千万用户量还是海量的数据？

应该尽量避免创业过程中出现花拳绣腿。

可穿戴设备的兴起与智能手机密不可分

December 2013 27

It's zero hour for China Mobile and 4G servicesIt's zero hour for China Mobile and 4G services

Telecoms in ChinaTelecoms in China

China’s 4G launch is already

behind schedule. Analysts

point to the first two weeks

of January for licensing and a commer-

cial launch of the service from China

Mobile. It needs this to wor k out.

The company, the world’s largest

mobile operator by subscribers, once

dominated the industry. It considered

competition from China Unicom and

China Telecom, the country’s two

smaller mobile carriers, negligible.

Much has changed since 2009 when

the country launched 3G services.

China Mobile still boasts well over

50% of Chinese mobile subscribers, yet

its returns on its massive network have

plummeted. The privileges it enjoyed

from close relations with regulators

have since turned it into the govern-

ment’s policy mule; it’s been forced

to adopt expensive and faulty home-

grown technology that has hobbled

its progress. In the meantime, the two

smaller carriers have become formida-

ble opponents, snatching 3G market

share from the giant.

The forthcoming launch of 4G is an

opportunity to turn things around for

China Mobile and potentially restore

some of its former glory. That is, if it

can get the new technology up and

running on time.

What's the rush? The original launch date for 4G in

China was nearly a month ago, accord-

ing to Bertram Lai, telecoms analyst at

CIMB. Plans are already behind sched-

ule mainly because of the complex

bargaining that must conclude before

licenses for 4G are handed out.

The talks aren’t simply between a

mobile carrier and the regulator, the

Ministry of Industry and Information

Technology (MIIT). That would be far

too simple for the way telecoms work

in China. Rather, all three companies

must agree on several different terms

amongst themselves and with the

ministry. To add a Kafkaesque twist

to the already tiring arrangement, the

National Development and Reform

Commission, the economic planning

agency, gets to have its say as well.

“There’s a lot of negotiation that’s

occurring right now and as a result

it’s probably going to take longer than

everybody expects,” said Lai.

For example, one of the bargain-

ing chips on the table is how much

extra a carrier earns when a call from

another network is dialed into its own.

Currently, all three pocket US$0.0098

for every minute of interconnection

between the carriers. The arrangement

sounds fair but when China Mobile

has 60% of the country’s subscribers,

more calls are naturally dialed into its

network. This has always resulted in a

net profit for the company.

The ministry will likely change this

rule. Although no official announce-

ment has been made, a state news

agency reporter said on his personal

blog recently that he saw ministry doc-

uments indicating China Mobile’s tar-

iff could be dropped to half the current

rate without adjusting the rates for

the two smaller carriers. Such a move

could put the Goliath at a net reve-

nue loss for interconnection fees while

pulling China Unicom and China Tel-

ecom out of the red in this area.

Perhaps more significant are the

talks over what kind of licenses will be

handed out.

Earlier this year, both China

December 2013 29

Unicom and China Telecom said

they preferred the more internation-

ally developed standard, FDD, to Chi-

na’s own system, TD. The ministry has

shown that it may not heed those wish-

es. TD licenses may be issued first fol-

lowed by those for the global standard.

This sounds like bad news for the

two smaller carriers. However, heated

debate over the type of licenses issued

might be just what Unicom and Tel-

ecom want. The two smaller compa-

nies have robust 3G networks that have

performed well since they launched in

early 2009. They would like to keep that

revenue flowing for as long as possible.

“They know what they want and

they’re not in a hurry otherwise, so

they’re willing to keep the negotiation

going,” said Mark Natkin, founder and

managing director of Beijing-based

Marbridge Consulting, which focus-

es on telecoms and IT. “But China

Mobile is very itchy to move forward.”

One final chanceIndeed, China Mobile, with more than

750 million subscribers, needs a license

COVER STORY

to deploy 4G as soon as possible.

The company’s 3G network has, by

most accounts, performed terribly. The

average user contributes much too lit-

tle to revenues on a network with a

shrinking market share. Several other

factors are chipping away at profit-

ability as well. Smartphone apps such

as Tencent’s WeChat are killing tra-

ditional revenues from text messag-

ing. As the company shovels cash into

its 4G network, its profit dropped by

8.8% in the third quarter of the year,

the biggest decrease since 1999.

Compare that with China Unicom,

which notched a whopping 51% jump

in profits in the third quarter, mainly

on growth in 3G. China Telecom post-

ed 20% year-on-year profit increase.

The numbers fly in the face of

China Mobile. A quick and smooth 4G

launch is the company’s only opportu-

nity in the foreseeable future to begin

cashing in on high-end services. And

that’s not out of reach. Technologically

speaking, China Mobile’s 4G network

is far stronger than its attempt at 3G.

China Mobile was expected to offer

3G services starting as early as 2006.

Yet, due to severe problems with its

homegrown network, called TD-SCD-

MA, that launch was delayed time and

again until 2009 in what was consid-

ered by many a disgrace to the com-

pany and the ministry that oversaw it.

But the past, experts say, will not be

repeated this time around.

“The technology is much readier,”

Natkin said. “Frankly, it’s a much

more global technology.” China holds

about 30% of the patents for the 4G

standard. The rest are held by major

international firms such as US-based

Qualcomm that helped engineer it.

Therefore, even though TD has been

tested and used far less than FDD, its

global standard should make the even-

tual 4G launch much smoother than

that of the 3G system.

Trials for the network have shown

positive results as well. China Mobile

was originally expected to have

200,000 base stations, or transmitters

for the TD system, in place by the end

of 2014. On October 13, the company

said it would expand the trials to 326

cities, which indicates “that 4G licenses

are not soon to arrive” according to

independent Chinese weekly newspa-

per The Economic Observer.

Analysts that spoke to China Eco-

nomic Review had a different take.

Pushing trials into more cities shows

that TD is ready for deployment. Mov-

ing from wide-ranging commercial tri-

als into real commercial operations is a

simple transition.

“The trial expansion means they are

seeing the technology itself is more

mature,” said Nicole Peng, a tele-

coms analyst at Canalys in Shanghai..

“They’re confident that it will be able

to scale up when licenses are issued.”

China Mobile has invested heavily to get a jump-start in 4G.

December 201330

China's making a list, checking it twice

Reform models

This year, it’s not just Santa

Claus who’s making a list.

China’s Communist Party is

taking one down too. Theirs is a “nega-

tive list” that contains a number of

businesses and industries that are off

limits to foreign companies – at least

for the time being.

Negative lists are policymak-

ers’ wish lists for reform. They could

even become the norm for rolling out

change in the country in the coming

years.

When a negative list was first pub-

lished in late September, detailing what

foreign companies would not be able

to do in the Shanghai free trade zone,

disappointment was widespread. Inter-

national firms complained the list was

too long, too vague and many points

still needed to be clarified.

Since then, the Communist Party

and some of the country’s regulato-

ry bodies have hinted at issuing more

lists. They’ve even broached the term

“negative list model” as a method of

pushing through reform.

On November 15, at the conclusion

of the Third Plenum, an official docu-

ment stated that a “negative list man-

agement model” would be established

for foreign companies looking to enter

the Chinese market. That list has yet to

materialize.

Lifting the controls on China’s capi-

tal account may follow a similar list.

In a guidebook published last week by

the People’s Bank of China, chairman

Zhou Xiaochuan said that a negative

list for foreign investment in mainland

equities should be drawn up.

Wang Yang, a reform-leaning vice

premier, even came out last week and

said the negative-list model could be

adopted nationally as a way of gaining

experience in reform.

So far, only the list for the Shanghai

free trade zone has been made public.

The technocrats that devised it

came up with 190 items that are con-

trolled within the zone. The bulk,

in areas such as “erotic industries,”

“investment in news agencies,”

“internet data services,” and even the

“processing of green tea with Chinese

traditional handicraft,” were listed as

“prohibited” for foreign firms, accord-

ing to an unofficial translation.

Other interests, like the “processing

of rice and flour,” “the construction of

luxury hotels” and “legal consultation”

were dubbed “restricted” without any

further explanation.

The binds on some industries were

slightly clearer: Accounting firms

would be allowed as “partnership

only.” Information services “other

than app stores” could take foreign

participation of up to 50%. Distri-

bution of audio and video materials

excluding movies is restricted to “cor-

porate joint ventures only.”

The mayor of Shanghai, Yang

Xiong, defended the list in October,

saying that it would be shortened in

the future. The theory behind it is that

items will be scratched off as time goes

on.

Han Zheng, the party secretary of

Shanghai, shed a little light on the sub-

ject in an interview with independ-

ent Caixin magazine in mid-Novem-

ber. According to him, any financial

or commercial business not marked

on the negative list is fair game and

doesn’t need government approval,

but the authorities must be informed.

Companies can expect the government

to slowly “trim” items on the list, he

said, although there was no timeframe

for this.

For the free trade zone, or any other

negative list that surfaces, one question

is: How long trimming will actually

take? How much time must pass before

companies can invest in something like

an erotic business on the mainland, or

is that permanently prohibited? And

what of foreign-opened app stores: Are

those banned too? Companies signing

up to the zone, hoping to access a cur-

rently blocked off part of the market,

could be frustrated with how long it

takes to unlock new sectors.

Another caveat for the list is that

any business that compromises China’s

national or social security, or the pub-

lic interest, is prohibited. This sounds

reasonable, yet Beijing has used loosely

defined threats to “national security”

and divulging of “state secrets” as a way

to sideline business disputes in the past.

Without clarity on the state secrets

law, as well as overall bolstered rule

of law in the country, questions over

China’s “public interest” could over-

rule anything printed out on a list.

December 2013 31

移动变革营销移动互联网在改变消费者的同时也对营销提出了挑战文 | 晗军

移动互联技术导致消费人群的生活

形态以及购物形态、信息沟通形

态发生了颠覆性的变革。移动互联网的发

展速度已超过互联网，手机上网人群的增

速远高于PC端上网的增速。目前已有超

过80%的中国网民通过移动终端上网，总

数逼近5亿人。移动互联网在改变影中国

网民消费习惯的同时也在变革着营销的方

式。移动互联对消费者究竟产生了怎样的

影响？手机可以上网后，碎片时间真正到

来，消费者行为的转变与过去想象的有什

么不同？在移动营销时代，应该如何观察

消费者的脉动和市场的变化，充分地利用

这些变化来推动移动营销的发展？

分众传媒首席战略官陈岩表示，移动

互联网的发展带来了消费终端的移动化，

消费产品变得越来越破碎。移动互联网让

消费者有更好的购物体验，虚拟平台和实

体平台更紧密地结合，会形成新的发展趋

势。营销传播的组合，未来很可能是挤进

消费者生活的各个节点，很可能会导致营

销格局发生演变。

电众数码市场首席市场官尹敬业表

示，移动上网的网民几乎100%与其他媒

体或其他上网渠道的重叠度保持一致。也

就是说，移动上网的网民不只是从移动渠

道上网，而是选择在不同时间、地点、环

境使用不同的移动设备来上网。过去在做

营销时会谈IMC整合，也即360度的空间

整合，传统营销中时间只是必须考虑的营

销因素之一，还要考虑各种与消费者的接

触点。尹敬业认为，要从360度空间的思

维转化成365天，要思考365天的时间周期

与消费者的需求如何结合。通过各种新技

术，以移动设备来满足消费者需求，进而

达成营销目的。

移动改变消费移动端上网不如PC速度快，Pad端

很难接受广告或广告形式出现。陈岩表

示，在这种情况下，移动端可能有很多机

会、流量和人群，但有没有办法将广告植

入，如何去赢得这场盛宴？如果单纯将广

告推送给消费者，究竟消费者能接受多

少？流量费用非常贵，网速非常慢，在移

动终端便利生活的同时应如何解决费用的

问题？如何解决速度的问题？在消费者必

经的场所，如写字楼安装免费的Wifi，免

流量费、极速下载是不是可以解决无线带

来的问题？

“其实我们生活已经很忙，你还有多

少多余的精力愿意接受更多的广告，让广

告来打扰你的生活呢？”她说道。如何将

资讯、内容提供给消费者，怎样将品牌信

息巧妙的结合在服务中间使之成为受人欢

封面故事

使用手机进行在线支付

December 201332

迎且容易接受的讯息，这是需要思考的。

当人们经历了时间、空间的碎片化

以后，如何在碎片时间中去实现自己的购

买？在“零碎化”的生活中，什么是 稀

缺的？可能 缺的不一定是金钱，消费者

的关注度、注意力可能是 稀缺的。如何

在碎片时间中去吸引注意力，将信息传递

给消费者？所谓“热环境”就是社交关系

为背景的关系。比如“双11”天猫派发红

包，启用社交化方式，让好友拿到红包后

可以分享给所有相关人群，分享者越多，

红利也就越大。天猫与新浪微博用户体系

打通，得到更多的新浪用户，通过数据积

累的大数据营销也会越来越精准。如何营

造这种激发购物行为的“热环境”？

移动营销可以“举重若轻”。在互

联网上通过选择、比较、比价，看产品信

息、看产品细节装入购物车再支付，是

非常复杂的购物过程，所以陈岩称之为

“重”。而什么是“轻”？微博、微信关

注了喜欢的品牌，关注了相关的产品，在

推送广告时，就轻而易举地产生了购买。

如何简化流程、吸引消费者购买的全过

程？在写字楼、公寓，在消费者必经的节

点中，不再简单地将广告推送给消费者。

当消费者用手机扫一扫，发现这些产品是

感兴趣的，会立刻通过“微支付”产生购

买。这样就从产品信息直接转化为购买行

为。还要“落虚为实”，吸引人们从虚拟

落到实处。陈岩认为，未来的趋势是如何

将虚拟平台的营销，落实为现实世界的具

体行动。不是简单的网上体验，而是需要

在社区、写字楼等地点，让消费者进行近

距离的体验。

升级用户体验重新观察消费者的改变，跟着消费者

共筑品牌的理念，用一切手段不断营造积

极的品牌体验，完美的整合才是未来生生

不息力量的源泉。尹敬业表示，电众数码

在移动营销产业投注了大量的人力以及心

力，从满足用户需求、品牌信息的沟通、

搜索的需求、线上线下O2O的联动，都做

好了准备。

从芒果的背景来看，曾经也是移动应

用的开发者，经历过所有移动应用开发者

都有的创意、制作和上线推广的过程。芒

果移动广告CEO刘江表示，当年作为移动

开发者并不是很成功，但获得了很多经验

和教训。芒果移动广告优化平台的工作很

独特，不是与行业中每个人都合作，而是

只做一件事，就是帮助移动开发者获得更

高的收益。

美图秀秀移动端的数据超过2个亿，

每天活跃用户1000多万。当初是怎么会

看到这样的需求开创出今天的局面？美图

秀秀创始人暨CEO吴欣鸿表示，当时是被

逼着进入移动端，美图秀秀 早做PC端

游戏，2001年初才发布移动版，手机版发

布后出现爆发式增长。他表示并不是产品

做得有多好，而是移动互联网的红利期到

了。PC版可以用半年根据用户的理解来

做，但是现在不一样，用户每个月都在变

化，用户活跃度比PC版高很多。以前用户

使用非常少，现在是非常疯狂地使用。美

图秀秀旗下有个美颜相机，平均每个用户

要拍30多张照片。

美丽说是专注女性时尚的社交购物

应用。美丽说从用户体验中创造了自我价

值，但更擅长从PC中发现用户的需求，

从原有价值中创造出更新更独特的价值。

美丽说创始人暨CEO徐易容表示，4年前

从PC端开始，2011年决定将战略方向转

到无线。对于无线用户仔细观察后发现，

用户不是回家后坐在电脑桌前，而是躺在

床上或窝在沙发里，用户的姿势变了。手

机是握在手心里，有照相机、录音机、喇

叭，是随时在一起的非常个性化的东西。

这些特点使用户的状态非常贴心、非常能

够参与。“用户在声光电下面的参与度非

常强。比如用户拿走了 新的试用品，回

来要分享体验，擦在脸上用照相机一拍就

可以上传。那种体验是以前无法完成的，

太方便了，而且想去参与，这个感觉是不

一样的。” 徐易容说道。

吴欣鸿表示，美图秀秀更加关注的不

是趋势本身，而是如何借助软硬结合，给

用户提供更优异的用户体验。软硬结合不

是现在才有的，只是现在借着智能操作系

统平台可以做得更好一些。未来智能设备

更多会围绕着智能手机，智能手机会成为

一个枢纽，所以目前正在做一些智能设备

的探索。

通过移动平台能否获取到更精准

来源：易观国际 · 易观智库 · eBI中国互联网商情

2012Q1-2013Q3移动互联网市场结构

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q32012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3

27.81%

28.79%

39.36%

4.14%

26.69%

28.54%

40.65%

4.11%

23.87%

27.60%

41.60%

4.50%

23.35%

28.40%

43.75%

4.50%

13.72%

28.89%

52.14%

5.24%

无线广告 移动购物 移动应用与服务 流量费

December 2013 33

的消费者数据？刘江表示，手机平台

确实能够获得较多的数据，前提是个人隐

私能够得到保护。对于手机用户的辨识可

以更加准确，并且确实能够获得地理位置

信息、手机型号、正在用什么样的APP，

还包括点过什么样的广告。这样的信息其

实并不是用户的个人信息，却能够帮助广

告主更加好地订制投放的广告。移动平台

是否有和PC打通的可能？刘江认为确实

有这种可能性，而且业界中很多公司一直

在努力做这样的尝试，包括一些大的社交

媒体。刘江认为，不管是数据还是打通，

关键问题在于受众，想要去辨识受众的特

征，目的也是为下一步更好地购买移动广

告做准备，这才是真正的意义所在。

展望移动未来移动终端一定会在未来的传播领域起

着决定性的作用，但逻辑或原则是什么？

华扬联众CEO苏同认为，移动终端是随

着人们早晨起床到出门工作、上班，到娱

乐、到晚上回到家，到入睡前的一刻，时

刻伴随着人们。这就造成质的变化，所有

原来的营销接触点发生了质的变化。可以

说成“媒体的接触时间变长了”，但说的

多的是“媒体已经变成碎片化了”。

U C 优 视 在 过 去 9 年 专 注 在 移 动 互

联网，目前是中国第二大移动互联网平

台。UC优视CEO俞永福相信，移动互联

网改变了UC，同时也改变了每个人的生

活。时尚和科技使生活更美好。他表示，

站在全球视野来看，UC优视是全球使用量

大的第三方浏览器，也是中国互联网公

司中国际化程度 高的一家，去年12月海

外用户突破了一个亿。

过去9年里，俞永福深刻感受到了移

动互联网对每个人生活的改变。移动互联

网的用户需求 早是在资讯方向，在资讯

方向上使用比较成熟后，现在更多的需求

是在娱乐方向。亚洲人群将互联网视为

经济的娱乐平台，移动互联网更是如此，

因为更加大众化。全球人口是70亿，想让

一半的人接触互联网，通过PC是很难完成

的任务，但手机已经有50亿用户。所以想

让全球一半的人触网，只有移动互联网才

能实现。

封面故事

移动互联网使时间碎片化

2012Q1-2013Q3中国手机购物市场交易规模

来源：易观国际 · 易观智库 · eBI中国互联网商情

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

40%

20%

0%

2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3

市场规模（亿元） 环比增长率

105.0

25.7%26.9%

17.0%

29.1%

14.6%17.7%

132.0 167.5 196.0 253.0 290.0 341.2

December 201334

是什么？需要交互的是什么？很多人以为

APP就是移动互联网的一切，苏同却认

为，APP不是移动互联网的全部，更不是

移动互联网的未来。

打造移动生态在互联网行业工作了10多年的俞永

福经历了几次技术变迁，他觉得今天又在

经历一次重要的技术变迁。互联网能够发

展到今天，就是因为互联互通导致内容更

丰富，用户获取的成本更低。而移动互联

网APP其实让用户和服务商遭遇了巨大

的困惑。对于用户而言，获取一个不知好

坏的应用就会提示“要装一个客户端”，

用户不知道这个客户端是要还是不要。中

国iPhone手机流量的70%用在了APP的

更新和下载，很难想象中国iPhone手机

70%数据消耗是在应用的升级。使用安

卓手机都有“升级强迫症”，下载的某个

应用不一定天天用，要用的时候就跳出来

“对不起，我们发布了新版本，您需要新

升级”，这对用户而言并不是简单便捷的

获取方式。对于服务商也一样。有时候自

己不能够决定自己的产品在哪天上线，这

对商业大环境造成了冲击。

俞永福相信互联网能够发展是基于

以下几点：第一是互联互通；第二是免费

增值，一开始就要收费的产品，打不过做

移动互联网对未来信息产业、娱乐产

业将构生巨大冲击。过去3年俞永福看到生

活服务领域电子商务的冲击特别明显，移

动互联网从信息、娱乐到生活，已经对用

户形成了全方位影响。 重要的是打破了

时间和空间的限制，可以在睡觉以外的16

个小时随时上网，改变了人们晚上睡觉前

和早晨起床的习惯。他认为这就是真正地

改变生活。

苏同表示，移动互联网与媒体和营

销的关系可用几个关键字来表达，就是时

间、地点和情境。互联网时代依然在做全

流量，依然按天、按内容类别去做。手机

其实是虚拟的人，从早上起来的那一刻，

每一个行程都与时间、地点相关，而所处

的环境也不一样。苏同认为，移动互联网

的逻辑变了，无论是媒体还是营销或是广

告主，如果不考虑具体的时间、地点、环

境、情境，所制定的战略、策略就是自欺

欺人。

媒体人和营销人都在提“我们进入

了移动互联网，我们做了APP、做了客户

端，我们如何如何”，这就真代表移动互

联网么？这就是移动互联网的未来么？苏

同觉得要打个问号。他并不认为传统媒体

做APP就是移动新媒体，在他看来只不过

是电子化了。移动互联网需要考虑受众什

么时间看？在什么地方看？看什么？环境

好再付费的产品。他相信移动互联网 后

的解决方案，一定是对用户更开放、成本

更低。

互联网精神是什么？苏同认为其实很

简单，就是“开放”。只有开放才会走的

更长远，无论是技术还是资源一定遵循这

个规律。而移动互联网来了，“产业链”

远远不够，未来想象空间 大的是“生态

圈”，生态系统决定了移动互联网能走多

远。每个人都是内容的产生者，也都是内

容的优化者和传播者。如何在众多的信息

源中跳出来？如何能让别人认识你？遵

循“开放”原则会发现自由度足够了，每

个人都有可能成为生态链的一部分。

在移动互联网时代，苏同认为消费者

的参与度达到了 高层面，成为所有产品

或决策的绝对重要因素，而在原来的环境

里并不这么认为，会先去做调研，然后根

据调研得来的数据再去做产品。这样的流

程其实是滞后的。

移动互联网时代的来临，让消费者

可以更便捷、更自主地做出决策。苏同表

示，移动互联网时代数据的背后其实是消

费者的选择，一个人的选择不重要，十个

人的选择可能也不重要，上百万、上千万

人的选择就是潮流，就是商家、广告主想

要掌握的趋势。而真正的数据是能判断消

费、影响决策的。

移动互联网时代数据的背后是消费者的选择

December 2013 35

The fi rst part in our series on local government debt asks: Where did it all come from?

In the red

Where is the home of the

cleverest businesspeople

in China? This is a rag-

ing debate. Southerners say Chaozhou

in Fujian province. Coastal Wenzhou

folk certainly have a claim given their

entrepreneurial rigor. Shanxi province

in the north demand a shot at the title.

While they argue among them-

selves, a simple answer is readily avail-

able: Regional government officials,

north or south. These cadres in prov-

inces and cities across the country have

built monumental projects and accu-

mulated extensive asset portfolios, all

paid for by creative off balance sheet

borrowing that dodged strict central

government laws preventing them

from getting loans from banks.

Over the past nearly 20 years, local

officials have set up companies that

find the cash for them. These corpora-

tions – legally detached from yet head-

ed by officials – take loans, develop

property and build bridges and stadi-

ums. Their legacy is visible in almost

every part of China.

They’ve racked up a hefty bill in the

process. Many projects lose money;

it’s probable that much of what was

borrowed will never be paid back.

Worst of all, the regulations that stop

the localities from formal borrowing

have pushed them into a grey market

for funding. The debt isn’t accounted

for in the local budgets because the

governments haven’t borrowed the

money, their companies have.

“I think the issue is, that when you

impose severe restrictions on local

governments, they typically find a way

around those restrictions,” said Debra

Roane, vice president at Moody’s

Investors Services.

Now Beijing is trying to figure out

just how much was borrowed in this

manner.

In August, the State Council, the

government’s decision-making body,

dispatched an accounting team to tally

up this hidden debt. Although the

results aren’t due until later this year,

early estimates from analysts put the

outstanding balance at up to US$3.9

trillion, or 47% of China’s 2012 GDP.

A similar audit was carried out in

2010. Since then, it is possible the debt

has more than doubled, pointing to

the increasingly small return the gov-

ernment gets on investment-fueled

growth and, therefore, a need to spend

more. Unfortunately, the decreased

returns will also make much of the

debt unserviceable. A note from Lon-

don-based Capital Economics pointed

out that the returns on many recent

infrastructure are likely to be low.

The debt is likely a main topic for

discussion at the Third Plenum, the

high-level political meet in Beijing tak-

ing place November 9-12. The “383

plan,” a reform blueprint that was

issued by an influential State Council

think tank in advance of the event,

noted possible changes that could

be made to the regulations that have

forced regional authorities so far into

the red.

Less isn't moreLocal officials have had little choice

but to drive themselves in to such

heaping debt.

In 1994, under austerity measures

taken by then-Premier Zhu Rongji,

REPORT

Massive projects such as stadiums and roads have driven many local governments into the red.

December 201336

the central government put its hands

on a major portion of local govern-

ment tax revenues while at the same

time requiring the localities to shoul-

der huge costs for social programs such

as pensions and health care.

A demand was also made for

local officials to drive the country’s

economic growth. For more than a

decade regional governments have

been charged with building many

of the massive public works projects

that have buoyed China’s breakneck

development. While headline central

government GDP expansion targets

have settled at around 10% for many

of the past 20 years, local governments

have been pushed to shoot for higher

growth, often topping 15%.

Faced with such burdens, and effec-

tively kept out of the formal borrowing

sector, cadres were left scratching their

heads over how to find the money to

build the country.

The solution has been entities

known as local government financing

vehicles. At its simplest, this is a state-

owned firm set up by a government to

borrow money from banks and bring

in the cash needed for public spending.

A basic model involves a shell com-

pany that uses government-entrust-

ed land titles as a guarantee against

loans from a state bank. Those funds

then primarily go to other state-owned

firms that build roads, bridges and any

other infrastructure.

Finding the bodiesUnsurprisingly, the borrowing loop-

hole isn’t as straight forward as that.

The questions facing these financing

platforms today concern the true hold-

ers of trillions of yuan in debt. Legally

speaking, local governments can’t be

held responsible because they are not

allowed to borrow from banks. Yet the

boards of the companies are populated

by local officials, often powerful peo-

ple with influence over state lenders.

Executives at local financial institu-

tions have been put in quite a bind.

What convolutes the problem fur-

ther is how this method of indirect

borrowing is tied into other promi-

nent risks to China’s financial stability,

namely shadow banking and wealth

management products.

Grey market lending from unof-

ficial creditors has surged since the

2008 global financial crisis. Compa-

nies in search of capital have racked up

US$4.56 trillion in debt, according to

Moody’s estimates of the broader the

shadow banking sector.

Many of those businesses were state

owned. About half of the debt issued

indirectly to local governments since

2010 may have been borrowed though

shadow banks, as financial intermedi-

aries often operating outside of regula-

tory oversight are known, according

to Wang Qinwei, China economist at

Capital Economics.

“But it can only explain a small part

of the financing through shadow bank-

ing in the whole country,” he said over

the phone. “How much and what’s

the structure? What kind of borrower?

None of that is clear right now and it’s

all part of the risk.”

Standard and Poor’s estimates that

up to 80% of local government debt

is held by Chinese investment firms,

much of which could be in risky

wealth management products. Last

year, the central government fingered

investment and trust companies for

the opaque nature of the investment

products they offered. Funds were

loaded into speculative property buy-

ups and coal mines. Huaxia Bank’s

notable default on its wealth manage-

ment products brought some visibility

to the issue last December. Nationally,

the products were valued at US$1.2

trillion at the end of 2012.

Lightening the loadThe intertwining of local debt between

wealth management products and the

shadow banking sector – the two of

which are also thought to be tightly

entangled – has made assessing the

true risks increasingly difficult.

Perhaps the risk became clearer to

top policymakers this weekend. The

preliminary findings of the national

audit were expected to be presented at

the Third Plenum, which ran Novem-

ber 9-12. Many leaders also likely

looked for long-term solutions in the

383 plan.

The proposals in the plan are wide

ranging and have the potential to bring

about major changes in the way local

governments operate.

The government could extend a

local bond pilot that would help render

backdoor lending obsolete. It may also

let local officials levy property taxes as

another way of generating transparent,

on-the-book revenues to fund projects.

The 383 plan has even suggested light-

ening regional governments’ social

responsibilities, a move that would

lessen their expenditures.

Yet the plan’s bold ideas are

matched by the difficulty and the

length of time required to enact them

– should part or all be approved. Over

the next three articles in this series

China Economic Review explores how

the central government plans to pull

regional authorities out of the red.

REPORT

December 2013 37

Part two of our In the Red series looks at the development of local government bonds

Bail bonds

Chinese tourist have flocked to

Huaxi village in Jiangsu prov-

ince for a glimpse of the sky-

scraper local officials have erected. The

province itself was sitting on US$126

billion in debt in July.

When the world was digesting news

of Detroit’s bankruptcy in July, the

biggest ever by a municipality in the

US, attention in China turned to the

highly indebted government of Jiangsu

province.

Provincial, city and county authori-

ties were thought to be sitting on

some US$126 billion in debt while the

region’s shipbuilding industry, a major

generator of revenues, foundered due

to overcapacity.

The province in east China was

labeled a “ticking time bomb” and

potentially the venue for the coun-

try’s first local bankruptcy. Stories of

Huaxi village in central Jiangsu, where

the local party chief had erected a sky-

scraper and an enormous temple com-

plex on farmland, seemed to exemplify

the rampant spending officials had

engaged in for more than a decade.

A month later, Jiangsu officials

publicly said the debt was manageable,

even appropriate for the size of the

local economy, quickly easing fears of a

provincial default.

Much of Detroit’s US$18 billion

in debt is held in municipal bonds.

On October 1, when the city default-

ed on US$9.37 million in payments it

owed to the bondholders, there were

few questions over the ownership or

amount of the debt. The bondholders

are taking Detroit to court.

China, however, is a murkier place.

In Jiangsu province, opaque govern-

ment financing platforms borrowed

much of the cash. They took loans

from shadow banks and parked funds

into risky wealth management prod-

ucts. Unlike Detroit, assessing the risk

associated with Jiangsu’s debt will be

much more difficult, as will any litiga-

tion that follows.

Bail bonds The central government may seek

to clear up this financial disarray by

developing bond markets. A commu-

niqué issued at the close of this year’s

biggest policy meet, the Third Plenum,

pointed ever so vaguely at reforming

local government finances.

The think tank that developed a

reform blueprint for the plenary ses-

sion, known as the “383 plan,” put the

solution rather wryly: “Open the front

door, block the back door.” That is, let

local governments start issuing debt

directly by developing a local bond

market.

If that part of the plan is adopted

and the central government commit-

ted to the development of a local bond

market, it could substantially reduce

the need for covert borrowing.

“You can use the experiences of

many foreign countries for reference,

and local governments may issue debts

by themselves for direct financing,”

said Zhang Yingjie, a lead researcher at

China Chengxin International Credit

Rating. Doing that would necessitate

an amendment to the Budget Law.

“If there is any big reform, the first

step will be amending this law, and

then there may be some improve-

ment,” Zhang said. “If [bond] pilot

projects are expanded, that means the

local governments may issue munici-

pal bonds by drawing on the experi-

ence of US with regard to this.”

China launched local govern-

ment bond pilots in 2011 and has

since expanded the trial. The centrally

controlled city of Shanghai, the city

of Shenzhen, as well as Zhejiang and

Guangdong provinces, were allowed

to issue 3-year and 5-year bonds at the

time, with the maturity period upped

to 7-years in 2012.

This July, the State Council expand-

ed the pilot to Shandong and Jiangsu

provinces.

Who calls the shots?The progress with these experiments is

encouraging but the market is still very

much at a nascent stage. For starters,

China lacks the credit rating institutions

that would provide bond valuations.

To move forward China will need

to develop a credit rating system, pric-

ing mechanisms, a transparent infor-

mation disclosure system, as well as

regulatory coordination between the

entities that oversee the bond market,

according to An Guojun, a researcher

at China Academy of Social Sciences

in Beijing.

REPORT

December 201338

At present, the Ministry of Finance,

not the local governments themselves,

calls the shots on issuing bonds, Debra

Roane, vice president at Moody’s

Investors Services, told China Eco-

nomic Review.

The ministry has tight control over

the maturation period and the amount

of bonds issued. At some point, offi-

cials in these localities will need to take

the reins into their own hands.

Perhaps most important, cities and

provinces will need to start producing

real financial statements that include

the liabilities held by financing vehi-

cles. Only then can the risks associated

with lending to the governments can

be assessed. That’s happening under

the direction of the central government

in some upper-tier cities, but slowly.

Eventually, Roane said, they will

need to “actually disclose those docu-

ments and have a greater dialog with

the market.”

The bigger they are, the lighter they fallDeveloping sound bond markets in

cities around China could take years

given the process involved. And any

progress in that direction would

require strong support from leaders at

the top. But that doesn’t mean prov-

inces such as Jiangsu will soon end up

in default like Detroit in the meantime.

Despite the amazing level of debt

local Chinese officials have managed to

accrue since 2010, the cadres have little

to fear. Analysts and rating agencies

agree that it’s unlikely the central gov-

ernment will allow a city or province

to go under.

In a more open banking system

than the one the country currently

possesses, the situation would likely

lead to greater concerns over the sol-

vency of the banks that have done the

lending, London-based Capital Eco-

nomics said in a note.

However, China’s closed capital

account has kept worries of contagion

to the global banking system at bay. In

the short term, banks will likely con-

tinue to roll over the loans to local

authorities that are having trouble

paying them back, buying some time

for the central government to initiate

reform.

Should a city teeter on the edge of

default, the central government could

always give a one-off capital injection

into local banks, Capital Economics

noted.

Still, some small governments can’t

take such an option for granted. The

central authorities have a penchant for

making an example of officials or insti-

tutions where they can afford to.

Perhaps the safest local govern-

ments are the biggest. As China con-

tinues to muster international eco-

nomic clout, the possibility that Beijing

would let a powerful and important

city such as Shanghai, an emerging glo-

bal financial center, file for bankruptcy

is slim.

“The central government [would be

likely to act] particularly if it was one

of the larger, more visible and strategi-

cally important local governments,”

Roane said.

“I think the reputation risk to the

central government would be pretty

great.”

Huaxi village in Jiangsu province is a poster boy for supercharged rural economic development.

REPORT

December 2013 39

移动阅读制高点剖析主要移动阅读厂商的市场竞争潜力文 | 铁琴

明年中国移动阅读市场的销售规模将

有望突破80亿元大关。移动阅读是

指运用手机等移动终端进行阅读的行为。

移动阅读市场规模是数字阅读运营商在移

动端获得的用户付费、广告、内容合作等

营收总和。从内容类型来看，包括电子图

书、期刊杂志、原创网络文学以及移动聚

合阅读等，不包括手机报收入。

中国移动阅读市场去年收入规模处

于稳定发展状态，但较前年增长率有所下

滑，主要在于受新型资讯获取方式（新闻

客户端、微博等的普及）的冲击，手机报

收入下滑幅度较大。另外，其他移动阅读

厂商致力于改善产品用户体验，行业仍处

于跑马圈地、培养用户付费习惯的阶段。

易观智库分析师李艳艳预计，明年中国移

动阅读市场销售规模将达到82.3亿元。

随着各移动阅读厂商产品不断完善，

上游内容提供商内容不断开放，用户习惯

逐渐养成。李艳艳预计2015年收入规模达

到103.2亿元，2015年移动阅读活跃用户

达到6.5亿人。

艾瑞咨询分析认为，移动阅读市场的

高增长反映出，一方面用户碎片化行为特

点成为一种常态，阅读成为用户主要的休

闲娱乐服务，用户活跃度高、粘性强、同

时付费意愿逐渐增强；一方面阅读电子化

将是未来重要发展趋势，传统出版行业、

运营商、数字阅读内容提供商等产业链多

方的联合推动，市场规模将快速增长。

三个维度描述企业能力根据易观智库发布的专题研究报告，

李艳艳对去年至今年主要移动阅读厂商在

执行能力和创新能力的变化情况做出了解

读。从产业发展周期看，移动阅读市场仍

处于缓慢发展，各家企业共同做大市场的

阶段，所以在一阶段选取内容规模、用户

规模与组织规模三个维度描述企业市场执

行能力。

内容的多少与内容质量决定能够提供

给用户什么，在目前移动阅读市场电子书

版权内容并未全部开放，各家内容量级处

于积累期这种市场阶段，内容规模也成为

内容产业的核心资源。李艳艳认为，用户

规模在一定程度上能为版权洽谈加分，同

时有助于产品改善优化。组织规模指厂商

在人员方面的投入情况，现在与未来企业

扩充规模能力的重点衡量指标。

李艳艳认为，移动阅读市场中的用

户规模、内容规模、组织规模等均为运营

指标，而能够推动产业发展的厂商创新则

以产品创新和渠道开拓 为重要。用户需

求分析：对不同用户喜好的分析、推荐能

力。产品设计能力：产品UI，功能等方面

的设计能力，决定产品的用户体验。技术

开发能力：通过技术实现产品设计更好的

展现等方面的能力。渠道能力：推广与销

售渠道、策略等创新能力。商业化能力：

收费来源、收费方式等创新能力。

封面故事

阅读电子化将是未来重要的发展趋势

December 201340

领先者与务实者领 先 者 在 商 业 模 式 创 新 或 产 品 / 服

务创新性上拥有较强的独特性，同时具

有很好的系统执行力能够把创新性提供

给市场并获取较高的市场认可。去年移

动阅读市场领先者是中国移动、中国电

信、iReader、91熊猫看书

移动阅读市场的领先者均拥有庞大

的个人用户规模和较强的渠道能力。中国

移动与中国电信手机阅读分别依托中国移

动与中国联通的用户规模、便捷的支付渠

道、以及移动网络优势，在移动阅读市场

具备领先优势，但中国移动手机阅读的创

新能力不足，未来将会走向务实者象限。

iReader凭借在非智能机时代积累的

用户资源，在智能终端时代逐步打造产品

能力，借助在渠道方面的资源优势逐步实

现转型，扩充用户规模，目前成绩斐然，

用户规模达到8000万之多，并已向商业化

方向转型，未来仍处于领先者象限。

91熊猫看书为网龙公司旗下业务线，

主打网络文学内容，与多家网络文学内容

提供商合作，并搭建自身网络文学原创平

台，积累较多内容资源。另外91熊猫看书

突出的优势在于渠道方面，随着移动互

联网的到来，传统的渠道以及营销方式发

生了转变，应用商店成为优势渠道以及高

效的营销方式，自有业务线91手机助手与

安卓网为91熊猫看书带来规模新增用户。

但随着360手机助手、QQ手机助手等具备

体系化优势的厂商发力，91手机助手将会

面临较大的挑战，91熊猫看书也会受到影

响，李艳艳预计，91熊猫看书受渠道方面

的影响将会跌入创新者象限。

而务实者评价拥有丰富的资源，执

行能力较强，但是创新优势不明显。去年

移动阅读市场务实者：百阅、云中书城、

沃阅读。沃阅读作为中国联通基地项目，

掌握着较多内容资源以及用户资源，但目

前来看渠道、支付、用户基数方面的优势

并未发挥出来。百阅作为阅读市场的老牌

阅读厂商，积累规模的用户资源与内容资

源，并在内容方面与盛大文学结为战略合

作伙伴，但在产品与技术方面一直未有跨

越性的发展。李艳艳认为，云中书城作为

拥有海量内容资源的盛大文学旗下客户端

产品，在内容方面优势突出，但由于进入

市场较晚，以及产品能力不足，目前内容

优势并未发挥出来。

创新者与补缺者创新者在产品/技术上的投入很大，并

在商业模式、技术或者产品服务的创新性

上有独特的优势。但是由于种种原因没有

得到很好的市场表现。创新者迫切需要获

取研发投入的产出，将会大力改变整个产

业的格局。

去年移动阅读市场创新者：QQ阅

读、多看科技QQ阅读拥有腾讯体系化产

品打包优势、便捷多样的推广渠道以及腾

讯规模用户基数，自身阅读产品定位于平

台化的发展路径，依靠上述优势在内容的

洽谈合作上难度不大，用户数的增长速度

较快，但由于QQ阅读属于较晚进入移动

阅读市场的厂商，目前较多优势还未充分

发挥出来，处于创新者象限。李艳艳预

计，今年随着QQ阅读体系化优势的逐步

彰显，以及QQ阅读在内容方面的积累越

来越多，将会进入领先者象限。

多看科技成立之初致力于开发电子

阅读器中文软件系统，后来转型以书城为

主，并开发基于多操作系统的阅读客户端

产品。多看科技在产品开发、工业设计、

以及用户体验方面能力较强，并一直作为

努力的重点，内容方面发展精品图书，整

体客户端体验较高，创新能力较强。但由

于电子书籍数量还未规模化，用户积累方

面处于起步发展阶段，目前仍然处于创新

者象限，未来多看科技的产品用户体验优

势将进一步发挥效用。随着多看阅读扩大

电子书开发人员的配置规模，规模化优势

将逐步显现，李艳艳预计今年多看将进入

领先者象限。

去年移动阅读市场补缺者是塔读文

学、亿部书城、开卷有益、书旗免费小

说。塔读文学、亿部书城、开卷有益以及

书旗免费小说各自有自身的优势。李艳艳

表示，目前来看这四家在创新能力指标方

面仍需要加强。另外，开卷有益与书旗免

费小说如何将原有用户规模平滑转移对创

新能力的要求也较高。

2012-2015移动阅读市场收入规模预测

市场规模（亿元） 环比增长率

125

100

75

50

25

0

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%2010 2011 2012 (F) 2013 (F) 2014 (F) 2015 (F)

30.5 45.7 54.2

18.6%

22.1%24.3% 25.4%

49.8%

66.2 82.3 103.2

%18 6%

22.1%%24.3% 25.4%

来源：易观国际 · 易观智库 · eBI中国互联网商情

December 2013 41

Xi's got a plan, but now he must put it in place

Comprehensive change

Upon issuing a detailed reform

plan at the end of the Third

Plenum, Chinese president

and communist party chief Xi Jinping

has cast himself as a reformer. Imple-

menting the plan will be far more dif-

ficult, however. A short, ambiguous

message issued at the close of a high-

level Chinese policy meet last week left

China watchers fretting at the pros-

pect of another 10 years of direction-

less economic reform. But before the

workweek was out, the Communist

Party answered back at those worries.

In a lengthy and highly-anticipated-

document, China’s leadership deliv-

ered what some analysts have called

the most important policy statement

on the country’s economic transition

in more than a decade.

As leaders promised before the start

of a four-day top-level meeting known

as the Third Plenum, the plan covered

a vast range of issues, from breaking

apart state monopolies and liberalizing

interest rates to freeing up rural land

sales and allowing private investment

in sectors still guarded by the state. It

pinpointed 15 succinct areas of reform

and 60 tasks to be carried out.

At the heart of the plan, China

Economic Review points to three

essential goals the party will seek to

achieve over the next several years:

Increasing the role of the market in

the economy, better allocating capital

to where it is truly needed and shifting

wealth from the state into the pockets

of consumers.

It’s likely the biggest single reform

package issued by the Chinese Com-

munist Party since a similar meeting

in 1993, where, under the direction of

party chief Jiang Zemin and premier

Zhu Rongji, the government pushed

through major changes to the tax sys-

tem and began dismantling some state

firms.

The reception from analysts has

been warm, especially after a dull 500-

word communiqué issued at the close

of the plenary session disappointed

Asian markets. That document gave

few new ideas on how the party would

operate the country’s economic engine

over the next 10 years. It even seemed

to vindicate worries that the party elite

would maintain the status quo of a

market still dominated by inefficient

state firms.

The document, labeled “Decisions

on Several Important Issues Regard-

ing Comprehensively Deepening

Reform,” looks strikingly close to a

“master plan” Chinese president and

party chief Xi Jinping promised before

the meeting. That will add to the grow-

ing tendency to compare him with

Deng Xiaoping, the reformist leader

who pulled China from economic and

political despair in the late 1970s.

Now that Xi and the head of the

government Li Keqiang have won over

many skeptics on their political where-

withal for pushing through a clearly

reformist agenda, the duo will face a

monumental challenge during the fol-

lowing nine years in which they are

expected to hold power: Actually see-

ing it through.

“The key is implementation, all the

way down to the local level,” Standard

Chartered said in a report.

REPORT

Xi Jinping has shown he has the power to push through change. Now he must do it.

December 201342

REPORT

This won’t be easy given how inter-

dependent each proposed reform is on

the next. A failure to perform in one

area will send a ripple effect through

China’s rebalancing process as a whole.

Some reforms may even step on the

toes of others.

Take for example one of the land-

mark developments mentioned in the

plan: A partial change to the hukou

system. This will require several other

major changes to be put in place before

this outdated residence system can be

finally dissolved.

The hukou system divides Chinese

citizens, and the social benefits they

receive, into rural and urban. For more

than two decades, rural citizens have

been relatively free to move to cities,

yet they have been excluded from the

educational and health systems that

urbanites have access to. These inflex-

ible rules have clogged China’s urbani-

zation efforts and created a yawning

wealth gap in many cities.

The new plan would free up some

movement from the countryside to

smaller cities. In the future, farmers

should get welfare benefits such as

education for their children after they

move to a small to medium conurba-

tion. This, however, will require a mas-

sive shift in expenditures from rural

areas to the cities where new migrants

settle. Even without that pressure,

city governments in China are already

highly indebted. The success of any

reform to China’s hukou system will

hinge primarily on other proposed

reforms on how local governments

fund their operations.

That’s another part of the plan.

For nearly two decades Chinese cit-

ies haven’t been allowed to borrow

directly from banks. They’ve also been

responsible for the lion’s share of

development projects in the country

and have since racked up what could

be more than US$4 trillion in off-

the-books debt. Xi’s master plan will

seek to remedy this problem by let-

ting local governments issue bonds to

raise capital for development. Trans-

parent sources of funding are critical

in pumping cash into welfare systems.

Furthermore, those migrants will

need to show up in cities with cash in

hand if they are to buy homes and set

up businesses. The “Decisions” docu-

ment no doubt has an answer for that

too. Restrictions on the sales of rural

construction land could be lifted. This

means that farmers may get better

compensation for their land as they

move to cities.

One possible scenario here is estab-

lishing rural land markets where vil-

lages and land developers conclude

transactions directly. This would push

out of the picture local governments

that have traditionally procured the

land at below market prices then sold

to developers at a profit.

This is certainly good news for

farmers who have long felt cheated by

the current land compensation system.

But local governments depend on land

sales for up to 40% of their revenues.

Taking away this revenue stream will

hurt their ability to build roads and

other infrastructure, especially at a

time when more migrant workers will

be coming to the city from the coun-

tryside.

Overall, the hukou is only a small

part of China’s new reform blueprint

that is now coming into view. Yet, the

overlapping challenges within that part

of reform demonstrate the level of dif-

ficulty Beijing faces in pushing through

such major changes to a system that

has scraped along for decades.

Many will congratulate Xi and Li

for pushing through the plan against

what was surely strong opposition

from conservatives. But only strict –

and delicate – implementation of this

economic blueprint can earn the two a

spot in history among reformers such

as Deng Xiaoping. Reform is the word on everyone’s mind when it comes to China.

December 2013 43

The voice of vested interest heard loudest at the Third Plenum

Upending reform

The Third Plenum raised more

questions than some hoped it

would answer.

The meeting was by most accounts

China’s biggest policy event of the

year. Major decisions on the long-term

economic direction of the country

were expected to be made. It dwarfed

in importance even the National Peo-

ple’s Congress in March which ushered

in the new leadership lineup headed by

Xi Jinping and premier Li Keqiang.

Little was initially revealed on what

the Communist Party’s highest ranking

leaders discussed behind closed doors

in a heavily guarded Beijing hotel dur-

ing the four-day gathering. “It would

be foolish to rush to a snap judge-

ment” on the plenum at this point,

Mark Williams, chief Asia Economist

at London-based Capital Economics,

said in a note just after the meeting

closed on November 12,

The initial communiqué, in the

simplest of terms, pointed to a long-

term process that should bear some

concrete results by 2020. It mentioned

establishing a special group within the

party structure to press ahead with a

reform agenda, diminishing the role of

the government in the financial sector

and forging major changes in social

welfare, education and perhaps even

changes to the way farmers sell land.

Still, many analysts called the com-

muniqué, issued via party mouthpiece

Xinhua News Agency, disappointing.

A more detailed document eventually

came from the decisions made during

the plenum. The “decisive role” for the

market that leaders promised in their

message will likely trickle down into

substantial reform – albeit at a slow,

measured pace.

One signal from the group of 415

officials who sat through meeting after

meeting was overtly clear: Powerful

state-owned enterprise is here to stay.

These clunky, often-highly inefficient

bastions of the command economy are

set to remain the “dominant form of

ownership” in China for the foresee-

able future, dashing hopes that the ple-

num would be the impetus for major

change in one of China’s biggest obsta-

cles to further development.

“The main disappointment appears

to be on SOE reform where the gov-

ernment appears to be treading light-

ly,” Francis Cheung, China analyst at

CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, said in a

note. “The government wants to main-

tain control and influence on SOEs.”

Powerful figures at state firms are

advancing their interests at the expense

of those seeking comprehensive

reform. Their voices boom loudly in

the halls of power.

Party leaders and state-firm exec-

utives have capitalized greatly from

state monopolies, the lack of free-mar-

ket competition and the diluting of

reform. To break apart state-backed

business and lessen its grip over the

economy is equal to draining the influ-

ence of officials that have locked them-

selves into powerful positions they

can’t afford to lose.

The benefits from reforming state

enterprise are huge. Currently, these

behemoths swallow up credit that

could go to more efficient private

firms. They close entire sectors off

from the participation of innovative,

often private, companies, resulting in

a subpar service industry and higher

prices for end consumers. The firms

are also notorious polluters that have

successfully fought off government

attempts to clean up the country’s

heavily degraded environment.

For taxpayers, these firms also offer

a poor return on the state’s most valu-

able assets. They sit on prized resourc-

es but fail to maximize any gains.

That, after 35 years of reform and

opening, the Communist Party has

once again clarified its dedication to

state firms is a reminder of the power

that vested interests wield behind the

scenes. It’s also a reason to be skeptical

of pledges for “comprehensively deep-

ening reform.”

REPORT

December 201344

Don’t expect China to have more babies anytime soon

One-child policy

The Third Plenum left the

world with much to ponder.

One issue in particular trig-

gered huge excitement: Loosening of

the one-child policy. But this is also

likely going to be the greatest disap-

pointment in terms of contribution to

China’s development.

China will allow couples in which

one person is an only child to have two

babies. Under the current rules, only

couples in which both persons have no

siblings can have two children.

Since 1980 the country has restrict-

ed most families to one child. Officials

at the time fretted about the results

of a massive population on scarce

resources. Between 1950 and 1970 the

Chinese population exploded from 550

million to 830 million.

Today’s China is different place and

the policy change finalized at the Third

Plenum, a meeting of top leaders, is

long overdue. As officials argue that

population control kept a lid on the

problems China faced during its baby

boom decades ago, critics point to the

many failings of the one-child policy.

Over three decades millions of

babies have been forcibly aborted,

some in unimaginably horrible cir-

cumstances. Cities are now populated

by nuclear families, in which one child

has to take care of two parents and

four grandparents. Pressure on young

people is mounting. The true costs of

this social strain are only just begin-

ning to become apparent.

On a national scale a looming

demographic problem could derail the

country’s growth. China’s economy

boomed on the back of the cheap labor

of hundreds of millions of migrant

workers. They are not being replaced

fast enough. According to estimates by

the US Census Bureau, China’s popu-

lation is expected to peak in 2025, and

begin declining by 2050. The situation

for some demographers is dire: Fertil-

ity rates in big cities are at record lows.

Allowing one more child in some

families will not solve any of the above.

Fundamentally, young couples, espe-

cially in cities, are wary of having more

than one child. becuase of the costs.

Most parents buy expensive imported

infant food because they don’t trust

the quality of local products. Buying a

home is out of reach of many.

Just because they can have more

babies doesn’t mean they will. Exemp-

tions to the one-child rule introduced

in the past decade or so for urban cou-

ples in which both persons had no sib-

lings, as well as for ethnic minorities

and some rural families, have not sig-

nificantly boosted birth rates.

Quantifying the boost to the popu-

lation yields various results. Lu Ting,

China economist at Bank of America-

Merrill Lynch, projects that women of

child birth age at this moment could

produce up to 9.5 million more babies.

Wang Feng, a demographer at Fudan

University, sees no more than 1-2

million extra kids over the next three

years. Neither of these figures is par-

ticularly meaningful and won’t sub-

stantially add to the labor force.

Even if millions of couples decided

to hop into bed tonight and reproduce,

the state still seeks to stay on top of

things. China will carry out “annual

population planning” to prevent large

fluctuations, Wang Peian, deputy

director of the National Health and

Family Planning Commission, told

state media.

Some observers cling to a posi-

tive: Easing the one-child policy is an

improvement in human rights and

personal freedom, with the govern-

ment giving its people more choice.

That is too generous. In fact, it’s

not much more than an easy popu-

list measure. Lu called it one of the

“low hanging fruits” that Beijing could

reach for in this round of reforms.

China needs more babies. Its social

and economic development relies on

a stable pool of young people. This

reform falls short of what is required

to reverse the prevailing demographic

trends. Only the complete removal of

child control restrictions will do.

But even if Beijing took this option

there would be tremendous difficulties

in getting it implemented. The fam-

ily planning commission, which has

around 500,000 full-time employees,

would be stripped of its principal mis-

sion. Local government officials would

also stand to lose out on their chance

to pocket some of the billions of yuan

they collect from families that illegally

have more than one-child; those rev-

enues topped US$2.7 billion in 2012.

VIE W

December 2013 45

解读大国策从投资和房地产视角看三中全会对未来趋势的影响文 | 攸风

今年二季度以来，全球经济增长格局

出现了2008年全球金融危机以来

的新变化，发达国家重新成为全球经济增

长的主动力，而新兴市场集体表现疲软。

展望四季度，美国经济受高新技术、房地

产及页岩气等方面的拉动，经济内生性增

长动力逐渐展现；欧元区也进入经济周期

性复苏阶段，但复苏前景并不明朗；日本

在“安倍经济”的刺激下，短期内经济可

能出现持续增长，但长期发展动力并不明

显。新兴经济体将会受到近期美国逐渐退

出量化宽松政策影响，导致外资流出金融

动荡加剧，影响其短期复苏发展。中国改

革转型在即，十八届三中全会重点讨论了

中国2020年前发展改革的规划，对未来经

济发展具有重要的战略指导意义。但短期

内，经济结构性衰退问题无法彻底解决，

经济增长动力不足。

对房地产产生直接影响三中全会颁布了涵盖十三个要点的

政府公报，为未来发展指明了总体方向。

相应的政策细则有望于近期出台，尽管其

具体时间待定。高力国际认为，此次公报

中的四个要点会对房地产行业产生直接影

响；另有三个要点涉及商业及企业的整体

发展方向，因此亦对房地产行业构成间接

影响。以下两表涵盖相关政策要点，亦包

含高力国际对各类房地产物业受政策影响

之解读。

高力国际分析认为：建立全国统一的

市场，正如高力国际近期所见，政府拨出

更多的土地用于保障房建设，这意味着从

供应层面对房地产行业进行调控。其它措

施包括限制竞拍土地最高成交价，或在成

交价达到最高上限时要求配建公共服务设

施，如教育设施、医院等。近几年，政府

已经发现管制市场需求对抑制房价增长作

用有限。

此外，“统一市场”意在建立一个长

效机制，为地方政府决定其各自的房产调

控政策提供更多余地。除出让土地外，地

方政府还可以通过其他融资渠道获得财政

收入，如发行债券或征收房产税等。上海

和重庆从2011年起试行了房产税新政，税

率按成交价的0.5%到1.2%征收。此外，

还有六个城市亦将有望实施类似的房产税

政策。

话题

十八届三中全会重点讨论了深化改革的规划

December 201346

让农民享有与城市居民同等福利。

这将带来两大直接影响：农民需要获得出

售其土地的权利—如果他们想要进入城

市，则必须能够将其资产变现，并获得正

式的居留资格（而非当前的外来务工人员

身份）；同时，此举将进一步提高城镇化

率（中国现有城镇化率约为53%），为

各类房地产物业创造更多需求。此外，

农民物业资产的货币化亦将增加农民的购

买力，从而直接推动零售物业市场的发展

（相比之下，美国与欧洲的城镇化率均已

接近80％）。

加强对物权的保护。这将减少政府对

于房地产市场的干预，从而大大提高市场

效率。

加快自由贸易区建设。通过划定指

定区域来孵化金融创新，这将对写字楼市

场影响最大。然而，相关规划至今语焉不

详。表面上，该政策关乎利率市场化和人

民币自由兑换等放宽金融管制的举措，而

并非房地产行业；然而，自由贸易区的设

立将进一步促进新兴商务区及金融中心的

建设。

高力国际分析认为，市场在资源配置

中起决定性作用，将减少商业交易成本，

提高效率和生产率，整个房地产行业将因

此而受惠。增强政府公信力：对于商业及

企业来说，不确定性将会减少，从而能在

房地产业内形成战略远景。企业通常基于

正常市场条件对销售和供应量趋势进行预

测，但不确定性的增加会导致预测误差加

大。

完善金融市场体系，扩大金融业对内

对外开放。允许民间资本发起设立中小型

银行并且健全多层次资本市场体系,其中包

括股票发行注册制改革以及进一步发展债

券市场等。这些措施有望为房地产发展商

或投资者们拓宽融资渠道。

综上所述，高力国际认为，公报预示

着全面的政策改革，改革将促使中国房地

产业向着更高效、更市场化的方向发展，

对物权的保护亦将得到加强。之前用以刺

激经济快速发展的政策已不再适用于当前

日益成熟、以服务为导向经济的发展需

要。因此，高力国际认为，如果政府在公

报中所列要点能够顺利实施，个人、企业

和地方政府的决策将从短期方针政策转向

长期战略决策，从而引领房地产业的持续

健康发展。

股权投资八大利好通过对三中全会《决定》的深入分

析，清科研究中心分析师姬利归纳总结出

几大看点，将会为股权投资行业发展带来

广阔机会和腾飞契机：

鼓励创新创业，优化中小企业融资

条件，完善风险投资机制，创业投资机会

前景广阔。建立健全鼓励原始创新、集成

创新、引进消化吸收再创新的体制机制，

健全技术创新市场导向机制。建立产学研

协同创新机制，强化企业在技术创新中的

主体地位，发挥大型企业创新骨干作用，

激发中小企业创新活力，推进应用型技术

研发机构市场化、企业化改革，建设国家

创新体系。加强知识产权运用和保护，健

全技术创新激励机制，探索建立知识产权

法院。健全技术转移机制，改善科技型中

小企业融资条件，完善风险投资机制，创

新商业模式，促进科技成果资本化、产业

化。

“《决定》在健全创新创业体制机

制、改善科技型中小企业融资条件、完善

风险投资机制等方面做出了明确说明，未

来科技型中小企业的发展将广泛受益，

创业投资的机会前景因此较以前更为广

阔。”姬利表示。

着力改革文化、教育、医疗、环保、

安全等领域，股权投资机会将丰富。推动

文化企业跨地区、跨行业、跨所有制兼并

重组；鼓励非公有制文化企业发展，降低

社会资本进入门槛；鼓励社会力量、社会

资本参与公共文化服务体系建设；健全政

府补贴、政府购买服务、助学贷款、基金

奖励、捐资激励等制度，鼓励社会力量兴

办教育；加快公立医院改革。鼓励社会办

医，优先支持举办非营利性医疗机构。社

会资金可直接投向资源稀缺及满足多元需

求服务领域，多种形式参与公立医院改制

重组；发展环保市场，建立吸引社会资本

投入生态环境保护的市场化机制。文化体

制机制，教育领域，医药卫生，生态文

进一步提高城镇化率

December 2013 47

话题

明建设以及国家安全等领域将呈现较大

改革力度，因此相关行业会吸引更多民营

资本进入，对于股权投资机构来说则存在

较为广阔的投资机会。

“单独”二胎政策放开，收入分配

和社会保障制度改革，消费市场受长期利

好影响。坚持计划生育的基本国策，启动

实施一方是独生子女的夫妇可生育两个孩

子的政策，逐步调整完善生育政策，促进

人口长期均衡发展。增加低收入者收入，

扩大中等收入者比重，努力缩小城乡、区

域、行业收入分配差距，逐步形成橄榄型

分配格局。建立更加公平可持续的社会保

障制度。单独二胎政策的放开将直接带动

母婴消费产品的需求增长，催生相关消费

品和幼儿教育的投资机会。提高居民收

入，进一步完善社会保障制度，将释放经

济消费潜力的，未来消费行业将呈现明显

投资机会。

外商投资和对外投资放宽，资本市

场双向开放，人民币/美元股权投资基金跨

境投资顺畅。放开育幼养老、建筑设计、

会计审计、商贸物流、电子商务等服务业

领域外资准入限制，进一步放开一般制造

业；允许创新方式走出去开展绿地投资、

并购投资、证券投资、联合投资等。完善

人民币汇率市场化形成机制，、推动资本

市场双向开放，有序提高跨境资本和金融

交易可兑换程度，建立健全宏观审慎管理

框架下的外债和资本流动管理体系，加快

实现人民币资本项目可兑换。资本市场双

向开放，通过货币兑换，人民币或美元基

金可同时投资境内和境外市场，基金的跨

境投资将成为常态，可同时捕捉到境内外

的投资机会。此外，资本市场双向开放将

有利于中国企业开展境外并购和吸引外资

企业进入国内进行直接投资，并便于外资

LP投资境内基金，实现股权投资基金LP

的国际化和多元化。

多层次资本市场将健全，股票发行注

册制改革获推进，股权投资退出渠道将拓

宽。扩大金融业对内对外开放，在加强监

管前提下，允许具备条件的民间资本依法

发起设立中小型银行等金融机构。健全多

层次资本市场体系，推进股票发行注册制

改革，多渠道推动股权融资，发展并规范

债券市场，提高直接融资比重。股票发行

从审核制向注册制度改革，可大大增加新

股发行数量，拓宽股权投资机构IPO退出

通道。但另一方面，注册制实施后，企业

发行市盈率可能会下降，将打破企业高价

发行的现象，从而降低股权投资IPO退出

的回报收益率。此外，关于“允许具备条

件的民间资本依法发起设立中小型银行等

金融机构”，有条件的企业或私募股权投

资机构将参与设立民营银行，进一步推进

政策性金融机构改革。

资源配置中市场起决定作用，非公

经济提到更重要地位，民营企业发展迎来

新机遇。关于非公经济发展，《决定》提

出，“必须毫不动摇鼓励、支持、引导非

公有制经济发展，激发非公有制经济活力

和创造力。”民营企业的发展是以市场为

中心，“使市场在资源配置中起决定性作

用”，通过市场调配资源、开放更多领域

让民营企业进入，将给予民企更多发展机

会。作为私募股权基金的主要投资对象，

民营企业在开放、公平的市场竞争环境

下，将焕发更多活力和创造力，并迎来新

的发展机遇。

国企改革进一步深化，行业垄断、

市场限制将破，股权投资将更多参与国企

引领房地产持续健康发展

December 201348

改革。《决定》提出，鼓励非公有制企业

参与国有企业改革，鼓励发展非公有资本

控股的混合所有制企业，鼓励有条件的私

营企业建立现代企业制度。未来国有企业

改革改革将着重在破除垄断和市场限制方

面发力。关于引入非公有资本参与国企改

革，此前，国资委去年公布了《关于国有

企业改制重组中积极引入民间投资的指导

意见》。三中全会后，股权投资基金将有

望更多地参与到国企改革中。

城镇化健康发展体制机制完善，基

础设施建设和运营将允许社会资本参与

《决定》提出，“建立透明规范的城市建

设投融资机制，允许地方政府通过发债等

多种方式拓宽城市建设融资渠道，允许社

会资本通过特许经营等方式参与城市基础

设施投资和运营，研究建立城市基础设

施、住宅政策性金融机构。”城镇化在与

股权投资基金合作方面，一是可以引导民

间资本、外资组建基础设施或产业投资基

金；二是一些实力较强的融资平台与金融

机构、大型机构投资者合作成立股权投资

基金；三是直接吸引外资、民间资本、央

企等各类资本入股基础设施项目。预计随

着地方政府举债空间越发有限，城镇化与

股权投资业的合作可能性将越来越大。

姬利认为，《决定》将进一步释放改

革红利，中长期而言，中国经济将有结构

性上升的潜力。在此背景下，经历了十余

年的完整发展周期后，中国股权投资行业

深受未来改革的影响，并将乘势迎来飞跃

发展的契机，另一方面作为多层次资本市

场的重要构成，股权投资将成为全面深化

改革的有力工具。

投资活跃度将会上升今年三季度投资活跃度上升较快，创

投机构对早期项目追逐热度明显增加，中

国创投市场共发生219起投资，其中189起

披露投资金额共投资18.42亿美元，投资

案例数环比增长28.1%，投资金额环比增

长111.9%，投资活跃度显著增加（剔除

三季度顺风速运大额投资，三季度投资额

增长依然高达62.2%）。

清科研究中心分析师徐宇明认为，十

八届三中全会为未来经济发展方向基本定

调，投资活跃度将会有所上升。

第三季度，中国创投市场有所回暖，

但回暖上升幅度不大。第四季度中国创投

市场在宏观经济内生增长动力不足的大背

景下短期难有较大幅度的增长。募集方

面，境外投资者对中国经济信心不足投资

较为谨慎，募资依然以境内投资者为主；

投资方面，投资项目早期比例会逐步加

大，随着改革的深入，创业投资领域可

能有所扩展；退出方面，随着IPO开闸预

期，IPO退出活跃度会逐渐上升，但短期

内并购退出仍为主要退出方式。

三中全会决定了未来几年的多个重点

改革领域，徐宇明认为这些改革领域将会

影响创业投资市场的投资方向的变化。例

如土地方面的改革和对垄断行业的改革，

将会促进未来创业投资市场对农业和一些

垄断行业（电信运营、铁路、能源等）投

资热情，吸引风险资本跻身这些行业。但

在短期内，受整体经济内生动力不足的影

响，创投机构投资活跃度不会增长很快，

依旧会在低位徘徊。创投机构投资项目中

初创期项目占比可能会进一步攀升。徐宇

明建议，在当前市场不景气，募资退出都

存在一定障碍的特殊时期，加大投资早期

优质项目是创投机构合理应对策略。

股票发行注册制改革获推进

December 2013 49

以创意实现商业价值商业创意助推中国制造向中国创造转型

中国经济与社会的发展需要创意经济

的强劲崛起。与发达国家相比，中

国文化创意产业的差距不仅体现在产业规

模上，更体现在对全球商业创意领域理论

体系贡献的长期缺位。

“我们在全球创意产业的发展中，缺

少自己的理论和体系。我去年与哈佛商学

院的教授沟通时，他就认为创意必须要有

自己的特色，要有自己的风格。所以当我

对他说，我能不能用商业创意（Business

Creativity）来定一个理论时，他说他非常

支持。”金投赏国际创意节（ROI Festi-

val）创始人暨总架构师贺欣浩说道。

11月13日，在亚洲最大的创意领袖

峰会第六届金投赏国际创意节上，贺欣浩

推出第一部专注商业创意的理论著作《商

业创意Business Creativity》，探讨在大

数据时代与全媒体整合的趋势下，营销策

略的创意如何能够最大化地创造出商业效

益，从理论角度助推中国制造向中国创造

的转型。

“商业创意简单说就是实现商业价

值的创意。”贺欣浩说道，“乔布斯说

过，如果创意没有办法实现价值，那就是

艺术。所以乔布斯终生追求的就是商业创

意。好的商业创意，能够帮企业不断地发

展。所以在这本书中，商业创意的诞生，

通常由企业或者相关机构推动，通过外部

孵化或者外部的获取，最终实现商业价

值。”

美 国 直 复 营 销 之 父 和 国 际 4 A 广 告

公司博达大桥的创始人霍华德 · 德拉夫特

（Howard Draft）如此评价该书：“灵感

来自于金投赏6年的累积，非常扎实地开

发出一种评估商业创意的工具，并发展出

一套全新的理论体系。读者能够充分体会

到科学和艺术之间获得适当的平衡的重要

性。”

在技术日新月异的大变革时代，海

量信息扑面而来，向创意人发起挑战。同

时，中国的经济发展也需要创意经济的强

劲崛起。创意经济是新经济的核心，创意

产业推动文化产业成为国内支柱型产业，

是中国产业转型的关键所在。

金投赏倡导创意和商业的完美结合，

是一项旨在嘉奖中国地区传播营销领域中

各公司用最小的市场预算，获取最大传播

效果的专业奖项。无论是制作领域、媒体

领域、产品领域还是数字领域之间的较

量，创意永远是广告主和金投赏所重视

的。自2007年诞生以来，金投赏创意奖

已是亚洲领域发展最快、规模最大、参赛

作品质量最高的奖项之一。本届部分参赛

者来自全球最顶尖的国际广告公司、设计

公司。作品涉及领域包括房地产、金融保

险、医疗保健、公益服务、运动旅游等几

十个行业类别。值得一提的是，今年新设

立的推动工业设计创新进步的“产品设计

奖”，使金投赏成为覆盖完整创意产业链

的综合奖项。秉持“用市场量化创意”的

评审标准，所有参赛作品在一流品牌主和

国际4A公司高管的严苛挑选下激烈竞争。

最终，结合每件作品的创意理念与商业价

值，有120项各竞赛单元的金奖诞生。

贺欣浩致力于在2018年之前，将金

投赏打造成全球五大创意奖之一。他宣布

将以商业创意的理论作为奖项发展的指导

和标准。将使金投赏完成从中国制造向中

国创造的转身。几乎99.9%的人都认为

金投赏不可能成为全球性奖项，因为中国

既没有到这个时机，而且离目标也太遥

远。“但是有没有想过，如果有人开始去

做，那么我们会离这个目标越来越近。但

是如果你不去做，那就永远没有这样的机

会。”贺欣浩说道。

话题

金投赏倡导创意和商业的完美结合

December 201350

网台联动助力原创将视频网站打造成“私媒体”的聚合平台

网络视频如何与电视台更好地融合是

一大难题。原浙江卫视副总监兼节

目中心主任杜昉加盟酷6是业界的一件大

事，传统电视的大金牌制作人转身到酷6网

当董事CEO，势必给网络视频的原创环境

注入不一样的元素。

杜昉拥有近20年的电视节目策划制

作经验，曾在浙江卫视担任总策划，成功

制作过多档在中国家喻户晓的大型综艺节

目，代表作包括《我爱记歌词》《中国

梦想秀》和The Voice中国版《中国好声

音》等。

盛大广告CEO朱敬介绍，盛大正在

不断改进原创内容的平台和生态链，杜昉

加入盛大酷6后，做了一些创新工作，如推

动网台联动，联合电视台把原创内容做到

电视上，让原创内容能够走出互联网，走

到线下进入电视，让更多的观众可以关注

到它。

杜昉认为网台联动非常重要，要让

所有的电视媒体学习互联网的思维，让互

联网从业者学习电视媒体的专业度。只有

将两者非常好地融合，形成网台融合的良

好环境，才能够带动原创内容的提升。他

同时认为，真正的网台联动是过渡性的策

略，但现在电视媒体和互联网媒体需要有

融合的过程。电视台和互联网是两个非常

重要的平台，酷6正在做成“私媒体”的聚

合平台，将中国民间原创内容优选出来，

放到一个比较正式和严谨的平台上去，这

个平台就是电视台。目前还不能保证一定

会成功，还在不断努力探索。“其实到最

终我觉得只有内容和平台，以后没有什么

电视节目之分了，就是节目内容和互联

网。”他说道。

酷6坚持要做成中国的YouTube或

者“私媒体”的聚合平台，这才是杜昉真

正看重的网台联动。正如目前正在浙江卫

视热播的“全民奥斯卡”节目，希望通过

酷6上亿条的民间视频、3万个拍客，把他

们所记录的最好的生活内容发到酷6上，再

通过电视节目的评选，发现中国民间视频

中最有意思的作品，并给予较高的褒奖，

这样就能够将网台联动的生态链串起来，

最后形成范例。

盛大广告是盛大集团旗下以技术驱

动为主的广告平台公司，整合了所有重要

的媒体资源，包括视频、文学、游戏和移

动等。连续第二年参加有中国广告界“奥

斯卡”之称的金投赏年会，盛大广告依然

备受关注。以“原创让广告更生动”为圆

桌会议的主题，畅谈自媒体时代的广告变

革。与会的群邑中国互动营销总裁陈建豪

以及娃哈哈市场部部长杨秀玲等也一致认

为，原创环境已经成为互联网广告投放的

优质土壤，因为在营销推广中，只做到找

对人是远远不够的，找对人且将营销信息

匹配在最合适的媒介环境中，才是真正的

精准投放。

在互联网时代，尤其是步入到移动互

联网时代，广告创意的环境已经逐渐演变

成为“用户创造内容和需求，用户创造并

分享价值”。因此不论原创的门槛还是成

本都在不断降低，形成了一大批草根原创

者和海量的内容。“从广告传播方来说，

原创环境里的内容丰富，挑战想象极限，

时效性强，营销形式也多样，所以制作的

周期短、费用低、传播也更快。”朱敬表

示，“而从广告接收者而言，由于网民在

原创的环境中更容易激发好奇心，因此也

更容易被有趣的营销行为所吸引。”

杜昉（左）和朱敬

December 2013 51

话题

企业并购渐趋活跃中国企业的国内并购仍有上升空间

继2012年下半年IPO的三大重要关

口全面收紧后，国内各行业都掀

起了并购高潮。清科数据显示，今年上半

年，中国企业国内并购行为的活跃度基本

与2012年同期持平，并购总额明显上升。

在这6个月的时间里，国内并购共完成359

起，较2012年同期的354起微涨1.4%，

环比下降25.7%；披露金额的347起案例

共涉及交易金额127.40亿美元，同比大涨

73.2%，环比上涨28.4%。国内并购呈现

出的良好数据，主要是受到第二季度国内

并购升温的推动。国内并购在中国并购市

场的交易金额占比由第一季度的15.8%大

幅上升至第二季度的86.1%。一方面是因

为第一季度海外并购和外资并购的表现过

于抢眼，另一方面也是由于国内并购于第

二季度升温所致。清科研究中心分析师朱

毅捷认为，虽然目前经济的复苏力度仍然

偏弱，且金融系统的稳定性也遭到质疑，

但是相对于出现经济下行的去年而言，不

管是商业环境还是投资者信心都有所好

转，因此国内并购仍有上升空间。

跨国并购渐趋冷上半年，海外并购和外资并购在第

一季度的突出表现带来了较为优秀的半年

度数据。其中，海外并购共完成34起，并

购总额达178.9亿美元，虽然活跃度不及

2012年同期的一半，但是其交易总额在半

年度的数据中处于历史第二的高位；外资

并购共完成13起，活跃度同样下滑，但是

其半年97.12亿美元的并购总额仍高居历

史首位。

然而单纯从第二季度的数据来看，

海外并购和外资并购的表现却并不令人乐

观。海外并购第二季度共完成16起，虽然

活跃度并未显著下滑，但是整体的交易规

模明显下降，交易总额仅为12.4亿美元，

金额占比由第一季度的53.3%大幅下滑至

13.7%；外资并购的情况更差，第二季度

完成的交易数量仅为4起，2起披露金额

的并购仅涉及2622万美元的交易额，不

管在活跃度还是并购总额都跌至近年的最

低点。

自2009年以来，中国企业的海外并

购迎来了火爆的四年。朱毅捷表示，企业

的国际化需求、对海外资产的抄底心理、

资源能源的战略性并购以及充裕的流动性

是近年海外并购的四大推动要素。然而现

在的情况是：国内的流动性有所趋紧；大

宗商品的持续弱市令资源型并购的热情下

降；美欧资产价格的回升令抄底机遇逐渐

消失；目前只有国内企业“走出去”的需

求仍然较强。但是仅凭企业的国际化需求

难以令中国企业的海外并购行为持续火

爆，因此朱毅捷认为，今年中国并购市场

的重心将由前两年的海外并购向国内并购

转移。

外资并购方面，国际资本对中国经

济发展的信心非常重要。然而，国际上不

断出现唱衰中国的论调，这在一定程度上

折射出国际资本对中国经济的信心有所下

降，并反映外资并购的趋冷。朱毅捷认为

短期来看这种情况难以得到显著的改善。

新能源并购火爆新能源行业也未落俗套。截至今年10

月底，中国新能源行业无一起成功IPO事

件，而并购事件却高达33起，并购金额超

过58亿美元。

IPO三关持续缩紧，新能源企业上

市前景日趋艰难。从IPO市场的事件数量

统计看，2010年是新能源领域史上上市

案例数量最多的一年，全年共有17笔案

例。2012年，随着IPO步入史上最严审

核过程，新能源领域IPO数量步调急剧放

缓，降幅达50%，全年仅有IPO案例5笔。

目前，各行业IPO项目都因此受阻，今年

至今，新能源行业也无一起成功IPO事

件，清科研究中心分析师吴晗瑄预计未来

还将持续减少。来源：私募通 2013

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013.1-10

投资金额（US$M） 案例数

2006-2013年10月中国新能源领域并购市场情况

21

4

7 8

17

24

33

114.59 0.00 531.00

630.66294.04 282.28 337.46

5,868.60

December 201352

在融资金额统计方面，2011年新能

源领域IPO数量虽降幅巨大，但融资金额

与2010年相距不远，紧随其后的2012年

全年的融资金额随上市数量一起出现骤

降，恢复到全年仅9.04亿美元的低谷，降

幅接近80%。连续两年的融资金额递减，

显示了IPO退出愈发艰难和出资人更加谨

慎的态度。

并购市场热度持续高烧，行业需加快

整合发展。根据私募通的统计，以被并购

方的行业作为界定方式。2006至今年10

月，中国新能源领域并购市场表现整体呈

上升趋势，披露并购事件共96起。其中今

年前10月的总案例数，已占据2006年至今

全行业数量的1/3强。从2011年开始，新

能源行业的并购事件出现大幅增长，全年

并购事件数量达17起，涨幅超过100%。

2012年，虽然整个资本市场态势低迷，但

新能源领域的并购行为却可圈可点，共发

生并购事件24起。今年前10个月的并购事

件也已轻松超过去年全年数量，且随着新

能源行业退出渠道持续受阻，未来两个月

的并购热潮还将继续上演。

从并购金额看，2006至今年10月，

中国新能源领域披露的并购金额达80.59

亿美元。其中，2007年仅发生了1起并

购事件，且未披露并购金额。2008年和

2009年，中国新能源领域并购金额出现小

幅上涨。2010年，国家推出《战略性新兴

产业规划》，对新能源行业的再次关注使

当年行业的关注点主要集中在投资方面，

并购热度虽连带上涨，但并购金额却出现

下滑。今年，新能源行业并购金额再次激

增，全年并购金额占2006年至今全部金额

超过7成，占比巨大。

清科研究中心分析师吴晗瑄认为，虽

然IPO退出有很高的回报率，但新能源行

业经过前几年的快速发展后产能过剩现象

严重，许多企业的财务发展都不具备上市

条件，而且即使上市后以目前的发展情况

也很难获得价值增长。因此，随着IPO审

查的日益严格和越来越有限的上市机会，

新能源行业的投资者们开始积极调整思路

以转向更加灵活的并购为主要退出方式。

吴晗瑄表示，并购重组有利于企业整合，

相信随着今年大量并购事件的发生，到今

年底，新能源行业的产业格局将重新洗

牌。

房地产并购走强上半年中国并购市场完成的406起并

购交易分布于房地产、能源及矿产、生物

技术/医疗健康、机械制造、清洁技术等二

十二个一级行业。从并购案例数来看，房

地产以55起案例，总体占比13.5%的成绩

登顶；紧随其后的是能源及矿产行业，其

并购案例数达49起，占比12.1%；生物技

术/医疗健康行业以39起并购，9.6%的占

比位列第三，机械制造行业由去年的第二

跌至第四。

并购金额方面，本季度活跃度最高

的房地产行业共完成并购金额35.91亿美

元，占比8.9%，位居第三。虽然上半年

对房地产进行了较强的调控，但是房地产

的并购行为并未出现明显的趋冷，甚至其

活跃度于上半年仍居于市场首位。朱毅捷

认为，造成这个现象的主要原因是资本对

于地产行业的增长预期并未产生显著的改

变：一方面，政府调控后房价没有出现大

幅下滑，部分地区甚至仍有增长，在宏观

经济较为低迷的情况下，政府调控短期内

再度出手的可能性较小，因此地产业的承

压不大；另一方面，中国下一轮的城镇化

进程仍为地产行业带来较强的正面预期。

新能源行业并购颇为火爆

December 2013 53

A second chance

When the Shanghai Stock

E x c h a n g e C o m p o s -

ite Index hit an all-time

high of 6,170 points in mid-Novem-

ber 2007, few would have guessed the

bourse, now the world’s seventh larg-

est by market capitalization, would

languish at around 2,000 points six

years later. And when securities regula-

tors halted IPOs on the mainland last

November, nobody could have imag-

ined the moratorium would continue

for more than a year.

Now it appears the block on IPOs

could end soon. When it does, China

may significantly change the way com-

panies list on its exchanges.

In a major policy statement at

the conclusion of the Third Plenum,

the Communist Party said it would

adopt a registration-based system for

IPOs, or one that lets companies that

meet a list of predetermined require-

ments register for listing. Previously,

the China Securities Regulatory Com-

mittee often subjected companies to

years of reviews. Some experts say that

change could come as early as March.

Under the system currently in place,

the CSRC let firms rush through the

gate and onto the market during times

of high demand. Stricter regulation

often ensued when demand was low.

One primary reason IPOs are still

unofficially barred today is a meek

appetite for mainland shares and a fear

that a slew of new listings would put

a strain on already stretched market

liquidity. Another concern is the finan-

cial fraud at companies and rampant

speculation on new listings that have

rocked the market on and off for years.

These risks have put the CSRC in

a bind. It’s under great pressure to

let Chinese firms list once again. The

holdup has choked many private Chi-

nese firms in need of capital at a time

when access to credit is getting tighter.

At the same time, Chinese leaders

and the international investment com-

munity are closely watching the regula-

tor, headed by former Bank of China

chairman Xiao Gang, as it moves

toward again allowing companies to

go public. If it can’t produce healthy

market conditions this time around,

the prospects for mainland finance are

dismal. A sputtering stock exchange

would bode terribly for China as it

aims to transform Shanghai into a glo-

bal financial hub by 2020. But so does

one that rejects new listings.

That the CSRC could do away with

its maze of regulations altogether is a

promising sign – at least for companies

seeking to raise funds via an IPO.

By July, 920 companies had entered

their names onto a waiting list for IPO

approvals administered by the securi-

ties regulator. That number has fallen

since then as firms have given up hope

or even gone out of business. Many

withdrew their application paperwork

Can China get IPOs right this time around?

REPORT

Shanghai, pitched as a top fi nancial hub, is home to one of the most volatile major bourses in the world.

December 201354

from the CSRC after it asked firms to

conduct self-reviews of financial docu-

ments and revenue forecasts.

“The review process really had

material impact on the listing issue,”

said Zhao Xijun, deputy head of the

School of Finance at People’s Uni-

versity in Beijing, citing the some 200

companies that have left the IPO list

in order to revamp their financials.

That’s a promising sign for a registra-

tion system that will require firms to

self regulate.

The push for an IPO registry has

been a long time coming, not a sur-

prise gift from reformers at the Third

Plenum. One reason the CSRC sus-

pended IPOs during the past year was

to develop the system, Zhao said. Guo

Shuqing, the former head of the CSRC,

launched that reform within the regu-

lator before chagning jobs in March.

Building a registration-based system

would let market forces rule, some-

thing investors and companies may

want yet Chinese regulators are hesi-

tant to grant. A registry similar to the

ones used in most other major capital

markets would put the onus on under-

writers and accountants to make sure

their clients are in order before they

head to the market.

Up until now, the CSRC has tried

to do most of that work by itself. Its

record is patchy at best.

Demand for mainland equities

has been low in part because of inci-

dents of high speculation on IPOs fol-

lowed by fraud cases. The share price

of Wanfu Biotechnology Agricultural

Development tumbled by more than

75% in April after a CSRC investiga-

tion showed the company had been

inflating its sales figures since 2008.

Ping An Securities, which handled the

listing, was suspended from underwrit-

ing for three months in May for its

involvement with Wanfu.

Cases such as this have under-

mined the regulator’s attempt to get

the market back on track. The persist-

ence of fraud at underwriters in China

is a reminder that bad practices will

remain a serious concern when com-

panies start to list again.

“These professional agencies in

the market should take a part of the

responsibility held by the CSRC,” Zhao

said. “Some of this work should be

enhanced by these underwriters and

lawyers.”

For a registration system to func-

tion properly, the CSRC must transfer

much of its power over the market to

underwriters, accountants, as well as

to China’s judiciary. If punishment for

corporate fraud is increased, all players

in the market will have to reconsid-

er cooking sales figures – or covering

such practices up – with the hopes of

cashing in on an IPO.

Striking a new balance will take

time. Underwriters, law firms and

the companies themselves are not yet

ready to self-regulate, said one main-

land securities analyst who asked that

her name not be used because she

didn’t have permission to speak to the

press. “The environment in China is

just not there yet,” she said.

China, though, is keen on financial

experiments. The analyst said a trial

for a registration system could first be

instituted on the New Third Board,

the country’s version on an over-the-

counter market launched this year.

A date for the mainland’s next

IPO is still a guess at present. How-

ever, given that the new administra-

tion in Beijing has blessed the CSRC’s

work on a registry, it’s likely the system

will be implemented as soon as IPOs

resumes, Zhao said.

In that case, China could update

its listing system as early as this com-

ing March, the next time the regulator

will hold a major internal meeting and

can review an article in the Securities

Law that requires companies to pass an

approval board before listing.

That would be a leap of faith. The

risks of reopening the IPO markets

with less-centralized regulation are

high, especially at a time with such low

liquidity and the specter of fraud.

Yet, if all goes well, the spoils could

be huge, and not only for firms, under-

writers and investors. The move could

be one of the only ways to put the

country quickly back in line with it

its goal of making Shanghai a global

financial hub with any chance of com-

peting with Hong Kong by 2020.

December 2013 55

Foreign homes

For those tracking the trends

of rich Chinese, few areas are

more engrossing than overseas

investments.

Particularly, observers have been

following the flight of yuan into homes

in some of the world’s leading cit-

ies. A new report by British property

agency Knight Frank indicates that this

is accelerating: The Chinese are now

the world’s biggest buyers of expensive

new properties.

In November 2011 a joint report by

Bank of China and Hurun, a research

and publishing house, claimed that up

to half of China’s mega rich, those with

at least US$16 million in the bank,

were considering emigrating. Cue

much speculation that the elites were

lining up to flee.

While that may hold some truth, it

shouldn’t mask the underlying moti-

vation of Chinese investors: A desire

to seek greater returns on their hard-

earned, and sometimes ill-gotten,

cash. “Chinese buyers’ global pres-

ence is fueled in part by a strong yuan

and slowing domestic economy, both

of which are encouraging Chinese

investors to look further afield in an

attempt to diversify their investments,”

Knight Frank said in the report.

The conditions triggering this wave

of overseas property investment look

like they are strengthening. Expect ever

greater swathes of big cities to become

Chinese enclaves.

This year will be the third consec-

utive year of sub-10% annual GDP

growth in China and may be the joint

weakest since 1990. There are mount-

ing expectations that annual govern-

ment growth targets will be lowered

to 7% from 2014 as the new political

leadership appears prepared to accept

weaker expansion as it reconfigures

how the economy works.

The performance of the yuan has

also encouraged greater overseas activ-

ity. According to one property agent

in London, a falling pound and ris-

ing renminbi make the UK a smart

investment destination. The pace of

the yuan’s strengthening against the

pound since 2008 has outstripped the

increase in prime property prices in

the British capital, meaning it is cheap-

er for Chinese to buy top properties in

the city now than it was five years ago.

London is the third most popular

city for Chinese buyers of expensive

homes after Hong Kong and New

York, according to the Knight Frank

report. Foreign nationals bought

US$3.5 billion worth of newly built

residential units in London in 2012,

with Chinese buyers among the top

three, according to a separate report

issued by Knight Frank this year.

Expect this to continue as the ren-

minbi becomes more global. Premier

Li Keqiang has promised to press

ahead with internationalizing the cur-

rency. His newly opened Shanghai free

trade zone pet project is expected to be

a test-bed for currency reforms.

Poor returns at home are also push-

ing assets outside the nation’s borders.

The equity markets have been among

the world’s worst performing in recent

years. Bank deposit rates are bolted to

the floor. Increasingly expensive high-

end properties mean nobody talks

about finding a “bargain.”

One Shanghai-based firm that spe-

cializes in helping Chinese investors

acquire premium property in Europe

has switched from servicing individu-

al buyers to marketing new develop-

ments to groups of investors pooling

their money together. The reason-

ing: Most Chinese are on the hunt for

investment bargains in the region; they

don’t want to live there.

Jones Lang LaSalle, a US-based glo-

bal real estate services firm, estimat-

ed in an August report that Chinese

overseas investment will continue to

expand at around 30% in 2013, with

real estate a priority target. A stronger

yuan and fast-growing prime prop-

erty prices in cities such as London and

New York were noted as among the

main drivers behind the outflow.

High down payments of up to 50%

on domestic properties, the legacy of a

near four-year campaign to curb house

prices, are also putting buyers off,

according to Jones Lang LaSalle. By

contrast, down payments on offshore

residences can be as low as 25%.

Over the next decade millions of

wealthy Chinese will invest abroad.

Some will move; most will just move

their money with the conviction that it

will buy far more overseas than it ever

could at home.

For Chinese, bricks are worth their weight in gold as they snap up luxury housing

REPORT

December 201356

Chinese banks abroadBrazil is a long way from home for China Construction Bank

When a Chinese engineer-

ing firm sets off to build a

road or a dam in a distant

country, a Chinese bank is usually not

far behind them.

A deal at the end of October in

which China Construction Bank

(CCB) acquired a lender in Bra-

zil underscores the size of the banks’

ambitions. The second-largest Chinese

bank by assets agreed to pay 1.62 bil-

lion reais (US$716 million) for 72% of

Banco Industrial e Comercial.

By all accounts this appears a logical

deal. Trade between these two BRIC

giants has blossomed for over a dec-

ade, growing from US$6.7 billion in

2003 to nearly $75 billion in 2012.Ves-

sels carrying commodities to the East

to fuel Chinese growth pass vast con-

tainer ships loaded with finished goods

sailing the other way, destined for con-

sumers with new disposable incomes.

But the hard part is to come. This

is CCB’s first overseas acquisition and

it will test its management capabilities

in a country much different to home.

Brazil’s once booming economy has

started to stall; its richest man has lost

most of his fortune in just over a year.

CCB has grown into a major bank

from its domestic operations, benefit-

ting like its other state-owned peers

from an interest rate policy fixed by

Beijing that favors lenders over deposi-

tors. As domestic expansion starts to

ease and competition at home rises, it

is looking abroad. The bank is report-

edly sitting on a war chest of US$15

billion earmarked for overseas buys.

By going to Brazil it will follow a

well-trodden path of Chinese banks

expanding abroad to cater to the grow-

ing number of local businessmen tar-

geting new markets. “The acquisition

will help CCB serve those of its cor-

porate clients investing in Brazil and

gain non-China-related overseas expo-

sures,” Christine Kuo, a senior credit

officer with Moody’s, said in a note.

Industrial and Commercial Bank

of China, Agricultural Bank of China

and Bank of China have either already

acquired foreign banks or wish to.

According to Doug Young, a long-

time observer of the Chinese business

environment, when large state entities

hunt in packs it is usually at the behest

of their political masters. That works

when there is demand to serve. How-

ever, the once blossoming relationship

between two of the largest emerging

markets has entered a difficult phase.

By some measures, up to US$70 bil-

lion in Chinese projects announced in

the South American nation since 2007

have been cancelled or are on hold.

Senior Chinese executives complain of

protectionism.

Brazilian officials, reacting to their

economic slowdown, are taking steps

to support local businesses at the

expense of outsiders. The country

already imposes strict restrictions on

foreign investments. Soon there might

not be many clients for CCB to serve.

Even if there are, its state manage-

ment structure could complicate the

bank’s ability to compete. First, it has

to prove that it can devise products

and services that appeal to clients in

the Brazilian marketplace, said Yu Fen-

ghui, an independent consultant and

financial commentator.

“Whether the low-efficient inner

management of CCB can meet the

demand of market-oriented manage-

ment in Brazil is also a challenge,” said

Yu. “It is a common problem whether

it’s entering the Brazilian market or

any other capitalist countries.”

At least CCB’s punt on Brazil is

less risky than some other big overseas

Chinese banking investments since the

2008 financial crisis. The small size

of the deal relative to its assets won’t

throw the Chinese bank in the deep

end if it goes wrong, noted Kuo.

Senior executives are hedging their

expansion bets with an eye on Europe.

The debt crisis is easing and the euro-

zone looks like holding together.

CCB just opened its Europe-

an headquarters in the tiny state of

Luxembourg, a financial hub hoping

to challenge London as an offshore

yuan center. CCB Chairman Wang

Hongzhang told Financial Times at the

end of October that it is looking at

acquisition targets in the region.

This could be the moment to get in.

“Europe has just passed its debt crisis

and the economy is now recovering. If

the economy is recovering, the finan-

cial industry will be recovering, too,”

said Yu. “So it is a perfect timing for

entering the European market.”

REPORT

December 2013 57

老而弥坚中国人更倾向于将年长者与智者联系在一起文 | 晏格文 (Graham Earnshaw)

人们 常 说 中 华 民 族

尊 老 爱 老 ， 国 民

只要到了一定年纪，就能

获得更多尊敬。相关的例

子在中国社会俯拾皆是，

有时甚至超过了西方人的

敬老意识。当然，各国人

在一定程度上都对年长者

礼遇有加，因为他们希望

自己也能宝刀不老，长寿安康。但由于长

期受到儒家和道家思想的影响，中国社会

给予了年长者在家族或团队中更多的话语

权和决策权。

然而近日中国政府颁布了一道新法

规，要求子女抽出更多时间陪伴老人，并

根据儒家信条侍奉双亲。此举让人颇为诧

异，因为在大众眼里“孝敬”一直是中华

民族的优良传统，至今广为传承。但从事

实来看，孝行已需要通过法律来规范，中

国社会近几十年来的变化之大可见一斑。

那么年长者在当今中国扮演了什么样

的角色？与20世纪30年代相比受后辈尊崇

的程度又发生了怎样的变化呢？林语堂先

生在其出版于1936年的《吾国吾民》一书

中发表了自己的看法：

“这样的社会，也不是没有它的可爱

之处的。例如尊敬长老，常是很动人的。

罗斯教授曾指示老年人在中国是最显扬的

人物，比之西方的老年人，远为尊崇而受

人敬视。至于欧美的老年人，他们总感觉

自己过了有用的时期，而眼前是无报酬地

白白受着儿孙的豢养，一似他们在其壮年

时代未曾出力以养育其小辈的。或则此辈

西洋老年人还会不断地大声疾呼，说明他

们的精神尚属壮健可用。这样的呼声，徒

见其可发一笑。好好受过教育的中国人没

有会无故冒犯一个老年人的，恰如西洋君

子不会有意得罪女人一样。有些这样的优

美习性已经消失，然大部份仍存留在中国

家庭里。这就是老年人大多宁静沉着的原

因。中国是这样一个国家，那里让老年人

生活于其间，满觉得舒服安适。著者敢断

言这种普遍敬老情操千倍优于世界各处的

养老金制度。”在我看来，这段话放到八

十年后的今天仍不无道理。

事实上，在当今中国的工商政界“家

长制”依旧盛行。与西方人相比，中国人

更倾向于将长者与智者联系在一起。话虽

如此，里根1981年当选美国总统时已年近

古稀，而希拉里 · 克林顿若能在2016年赢

得大选，其入主白宫之时也要69岁了。

在当今中国的诸多企业，“大家长

们”仍有一言九鼎的威力。李嘉诚先生就

是个很好的例子，当然还有许多其他类似

的人物。

中国的房地产市场在过去数年蓬勃

发展，开发了不少针对老年人的公寓和别

墅，同时也催生出新的养老观念。根据中

国的传统，老年人应与儿女居住在一起，

并由后者养老送终。但西方社会普遍倾向

于将老年人送进养老机构。而今这一理念

也已逐步为中国社会所接受，但实施起来

仍有难度。

是什么原因导致中国社会的养老观念

和方式发生了转变呢？答案很简单—独

生子女政策，当然公寓楼的兴建也是另一

个重要因素。作为家中的独子/独女，未来

他们可能需要赡养四个老人，但中国的公

寓楼却无法为老年人休养生息提供足够的

空间。这一境况不难理解，但选择确实有

限，让人不免觉得有些悲哀。

本篇讨论的另一个问题是退休年龄。

我察觉到东西方社会对退休与退休年龄的

理解不甚相同。在欧美，人们通常希望尽

可能地工作下去，保持社会活跃度和对各

方面的兴趣。但在中国，老百姓倾向于尽

早退休，然后便终日闲坐在电视机前，与

宠物狗相伴度日。上述例子或许有些片

面，但若部分属实，原因又是什么呢？

或许是因为中国的老年人需要依托

强大的官僚体系和社会企业体系才能领取

养老金，所以认为尽早退休无可厚非？或

许是因为中国的老年人自幼受儒家文化熏

陶，认为长者就应尽享安逸？我不知道。

但随着医学上的各类疑难杂症得到攻克，

人均寿命不断延长（或从70-80岁延至

100岁开外），我们亦需对自己的人生有

更好的规划。

看中国

中国社会给予年长者更多的话语权和决策权

December 201358

晏格文

LOOKING AT CHINA

Old ageOld age advances on us all eventually, but China is facing a pecular mixture of issues as its population agesBy Graham Earnshaw

It is often said that old age is highly

respected in Chinese society, and

there are certainly many exam-

ples to show that people who reach a

certain age in this society are generally

granted a higher level of respect and in

some cases even reverence than would

be expected in the West. Of course,

people all over the world respect old

age to one extent or another, because

it provides hope that they too can

reach that number of years and still be

mobile and sentient. But the traditions

of Confucius and Taoism provide a

basis allowing older people more of a

right to speak and participate in the

decisions of the family or the group.

But then again, China recently

enacted a new law that requires chil-

dren to pay attention to the parents,

visit them regularly, and generally treat

them with the kind of Confucian filial

piety that we all associate with tradi-

tional China and which we all thought

was still basically active in Chinese

society. The fact the law had to be

enacted was a reminder that China has

changed a lot in the past few decades.

So what is the role of old peo-

ple today in China and what level of

respect can they expect from those

younger than them, compared to what

would have been true in, for instance,

the 1930s? The concept of the patriarch

is still visible in China, both in politics

and in business. I do think there is a

greater chance that people in China

will look up to people of greater age as

a source of wisdom than would be true

in the West. Even so, Ronald Reagan

was relatively old at almost 70 years

when he became US president in 1981,

and if Hillary Clinton wins in 2016, she

will be 69 when she takes office.

There are many examples of com-

panies in the Chinese world where the

patriarch remains the real power. Li

Ka-shing immediately springs to mind,

but there are many others.

The property market in China has

seen the beginnings of a new con-

cept in the past couple of years, that

of retirement homes and apartments

and villas and estates aimed to be

bought for old people. The traditional

approach in a China context is to let

old people continue to live at home

with their family, and by extension also

to die at home. In the West, on the

other hand, the idea of placing aging

parents in retirement homes has long

been accepted, while it is only now

being raised as a possibility in China.

What has changed that has result-

ed in this shift in social attitudes and

approaches to old people? The sim-

ple answer is the one-child policy,

although the rise of the apartment life-

style is definitely a close second.

Only children have potentially

four older people that they need to

be responsible for and people’s apart-

ments these days in China do not have

the space to allow for long term geriat-

ric convalescence. That is understand-

able, and while it is sad to think about

it, there is probably little choice.

Another element in this discussion

is retirement age. I sense a divergence

between China and the West in the

way that retirement and retirement age

is handled. In the West, the trend is

for people to wish to keep working for

as long as possible, to keep active, to

maintain interests that are social and

wide-ranging. But in China, I sense a

trend towards people wanting to retire

younger and to then in general simply

sit down and watch television or look

after a dog. This is of course wildly

generalizing the situation. But if there

is some truth in it, I wonder why it is.

Maybe older people in China are

feeding off the strong bureaucratic

nature of urban China and the tradi-

tions of the state enterprises, and feel

they are entitled to do nothing as early

as possible. Maybe older people in

China feel they deserve a life of com-

plete ease due to a holdover from the

Confucian traditions that were more

strongly in play in their youth. I don’t

know. But this is coming at a time

when potential lifespans, from a medi-

cal perspective, may be about to jump

from 70-80 to beyond 100. If we are all

going to live significantly longer lives,

as various diseases and medical condi-

tions become resolvable, then we also

need to have a clearer sense of how the

time will be used.

December 2013 59

鸟鸣山更幽晏格文（Graham Earnshaw）生于英国，现居上海。他以上一次落脚点为起点，行程从上海一路向西，横贯中国。在本文中，他已行至云阳通往万州的公路附近。文 | 晏格文(Graham Earnshaw )

西游记

云阳县城可算是长江流域的主要新城

之一，三峡移民多定居于此。这座

城镇或许在面积和经济发展上比不过东边

的奉节县，但酒店环境却颇佳，当然仍无

咖啡供应。站在城中，举目望去便又是一

座大山，山顶还有一座宝塔，据说原本是

逃犯的藏身之所。至于“原本”是指多久

以前，透露消息的老农显得模棱两可，但

应该是在新中国成立后。

一路行至城郊，云阳外国语高中的牌

匾赫然入目，这座私立学校占地颇广，因

为标榜英语教学，想必也颇有市场。我在

校门口停了下来，询问保安能否将自己的

名片递给在校的任何一名外教。他瞟了一

眼对我说：“这里只有一位外教，是个菲

律宾人，但目前不住在这里。”

“那这么多学生怎么应付得过来？”

我不解。

“还有中国本土的外语老师呢。”他

回答。

“办学人真够精明！”我不仅感慨。

用名字吸引生源，然后将成本降至最低。

最后，我没能见到这名唯一的外教，更无

意看低菲律宾人的英语能力，唯一确信的

是他们的塔加洛语定是比我好多了。

我在城中的一个小餐馆内解决了晚

饭，主食当然还是老三样—豆腐、米饭

和啤酒。这几年来，我一路西游，主要靠

这些食物解决温饱，而且特别偏好街头美

味。在自己儿子的协助下，餐馆老板边忙

边向我推销价值108元的牛肉烩辣虾。这

搭配听起来有些倒胃口，即使再优惠也

无法让我破戒。于是我便询问起最近的生

意，她告诉我深夜的生意往往最好。

“我们要到凌晨才打烊”她边说边

指了指四周的小店。这时我才注意到沿街

尽是霓虹灯闪烁的按摩店和发廊，想必年

轻的女孩们和顾客都喜欢在深夜来这吃些

宵夜。华灯闪烁的发廊可算是中国城乡的

一大特点。常听人说中国人和西方人不一

样，非常忌讳涉黄涉娼的话题，事实真是

如此吗？

这座城镇主要由沿河的三条公路组

成，分别代表了上、中、下三个坡度，当

然其间还有一些纵向的岔道。我沿着最高

坡度的马路穿过小镇，发现街边的指示牌

多有中、英文以及拼音三个版本。所以

“白云路”被翻译成Cloud Road，而平

安梯则被叫做“Safety Stairs”。之后我

又沿着一条支路步行至河岸，穿过小桥西

渡，离开了云阳县。

于是我又再次回到山谷，身旁河水

潺潺，途经的一座屋舍前写着这样一幅标

语：“离开家乡，投入到三峡工程建设中

去。”

岔道口有一座单拱石桥，看上去年

代久远，桥身还刻有灵蛇腾龙，首尾横跨

整座桥体。石桥可算是传统工艺的杰作，

坚固耐用，又不失美感。美中不足的是

“永安桥”这个名字，不免落入俗套。但

话说回来，三个字的篆刻手法精湛，形态

流畅，也就让人忽略其他瑕疵了。

一路上山势渐平，远远地还能望见不

December 201360

was a smart selling point. I stopped

at the school entrance and asked the

guard if he could pass my name card to

any of the foreign teachers. He looked

at the card and said: “Well, there is

only one and he is from the Philip-

pines. And he is not here.”

“So how do they teach foreign lan-

guages to so many students?” I asked.

“Chinese teachers,” he said.

少稻田，其中有些是梯田，有些则未进行

坡改。我的第六感告诉我，美丽富饶、良

田满山的四川盆地就在眼前。要知道对我

而言，稻田匮乏算得上是三峡山区为数不

多的缺陷之一。

此时眼前走来了一名老妇人，她似

乎是在闲逛，忽左忽右，一头银灰长发像

男子般散落在身后，丝毫不介意身旁呼啸

而过的卡车和长途汽车。我友好地打了声

招呼，她则向我回喊道：“八十八！两个

八！”我想她是在说自己的年龄。

“ 恭 喜 啊 ！ ” 我 向 她 祝 贺 并 提 醒

道，“但别走在马路中央，一起到路边说

话吧。”

在我们相伴西行的过程中，一只鸭

子从道旁的沟里跳出，摇摆着身躯穿过马

路，加入了我们的队伍。于是我们仨又互

相照应地走了200多米，从走姿来看，队

伍步调极其整齐，只是我们很少和鸭子交

流罢了。

站在云阳通往万州的公路右侧，亦

能望见盘踞于山腰的高速公路。这条公路

TRAVEL JOURNAL

Ducks and double-eightGraham Earnshaw was born in England and has been walking west from Shanghai across China since 2004, always starting each trip from exactly the last place he stopped. This month, we fi nd him in Yunyang CountyBy Graham Earnshaw

The Yunyang county seat, one

of the main new towns on

the Yangtze River, was built

to house farmers displaced by the

Three Gorges Dam. The town was not

as large or as prosperous as Fengjie

to the east, but it had better hotels.

Still no coffee, though. Dominating

Yunyang was a hill topped with a tall

pagoda, which I was told used to the

headquarters for a gang of outlaws. I

couldn’t get a clear reading from my

farmer informants on the period, but

it appeared to have been at some point

after 1949.

On the edge of town, I passed the

huge campus of a privately-owned

school called the Yunyang Foreign

Language High School. The language

concerned had to be English, and it

数月前刚刚通车，无论是长度还是海拔均

可圈可点，20年前定能登上《今日中国》

（原名《中国建设》）的封面，但在今日

只能算是中国高速公路网络的又一据点。

如今中国的基建（道路、桥梁以及隧道）

能力令人惊叹。美国是否应考虑向中国申

请建设援助呢？必须是!

耳旁的鸟鸣声不绝于耳，尽管只有

“高-中-中-低”四个声调循环往复，但

仍有如诗如歌的感觉。我曾在安徽的大山

中见到过这种鸟，当时还听说它们的啼叫

预示着种植季的来临。既然如此，想必如

今也是这种状况。一路上只见农民在水过

膝盖的农田中辛勤作业，双手娴熟地将秧

苗插入土中。尽管此时此地的鸟啼声调与

安徽当地略有差别，但这并不令人奇怪。

毕竟，安徽和四川两地的方言也是不尽相

同的。

December 2013 61

TRAVEL JOURNAL

Smart school boss. Pull in the

customers with the name on the gate

and cut costs to the bare minimum. I

did not met the Filipino teacher, and I

would not wish to understate the Eng-

lish abilities of Filipinos, but I do know

their Tagalog is far better than mine. I

asked for the card to be passed to the

Filipino teacher, but I did not hear

from him.

In the center of town, I stopped at a

small restaurant and had a simple din-

ner of beancurd, rice and beer, which

had been my staple on walk days for

years, preferably taken at a street stall.

The restaurant manager had her son

helping out, and tried to get me to buy

the spicy prawns stewed with beef at

a price of 108 RMB. It sounded like

a disgusting combination, even dis-

counting the fact that I don’t eat meat.

I asked her how’s business, and she

said it was best in the late evening.

“We stay open until the early hours

of the morning,” she said, and pointed

to the row of establishments on the

other side of the road, and on either

side of her restaurant. They were all

pink-lit massage and hairdressing plac-

es and the girls and the patrons would

all be interested in late night snacks.

The pink-lit hairdressers are a feature

of all rural China towns. I have some-

times been told that Chinese are very

discreet about illicit sex, unlike West-

erners. Oh, really?

Yunyang town is basically com-

posed of three roads along the river

- upper, middle and lower - with a

few almost vertical linkage roads in

between. I walked through the town

along the top road, and inspected the

street signs, which featured three ver-

sions of each names - Chinese, pinyin

and English. So Baiyun Lu was ren-

dered as Cloud Road and Pingan Ti

as Safety Stairs. Then I walked down a

link road to the river side, and crossed

a bridge that took me on to the west,

Yunyang now behind me.

Back on the mountain road, with

the river somewhere out on my left, I

passed a house daubed with a slogan

saying: Give up your home, dedicate it

to the Three Gorges Project.

I saw a small and very old stone

bridge on a side road, a one-arched

construction with a dragon-snake built

into the design, with its head emerging

from the stonework on one side, and

its tail on the other. It was a work of

traditional art with a practical purpose.

Only the name was a bit of a clichéd

December 201362

disappointment – the Bridge of Eternal

Peace – but was redeemed by the beau-

ty of the calligraphic strokes of which

the characters were composed.

The hills became more gentle and I

began to see more rice paddies, some

terraced and some on flat land. I could

almost smell the paddy-heavy Sichuan

basin ahead of me. The lack of rice

paddy is one of the few drawbacks of

the Gorges mountains region for me.

I met an old woman with boyishly

long grey hair meandering along the

road with a walking stick, now on this

side, now on that, but mostly blithe-

ly wandering down the middle of the

road with no concern for the occa-

sional trucks and buses that roared by.

I said hello and the first thing she said

was: “Eighty-eight! Double eight!” She

meant her age.

“Congratulations!” I said. “Now

let’s walk on the side of the road.”

A little further along, a duck jumped

out of a ditch beside me, waddled

across the road, and proceeded in the

same westerly direction as myself on

the other side. We shadowed each other

for probably 200 meters in a repeat of

the experience with the old lady, except

that the duck had nothing to say.

On the right of the old Yunyang to

Wanzhou road that I was on, higher

up in the mountains, I could see the

new freeway, which had opened just a

few months ago. Fantastically long and

high bridges over the mountain val-

leys, each one a feat of engineering that

20 years ago would have merited the

cover of China Reconstructs magazine,

but now just another unremarkable

part of the country’s national freeway

network. China’s infrastructural capa-

bilities – road, bridge and tunnel con-

struction – was phenomenal. Should

the United States ask them for techni-

cal assistance? Yes!

I heard a bird call which was a

four-note song – high-mid-mid-low,

repeated over and over. It was the

same species of bird I had come across

in the Anhui mountains, and had been

told there that its call marks the start of

the rice planting season. It was again

the start of the rice planting season and

here was the same bird again. I passed

peasants knee-deep in water, thrusting

bright green rice shoots into the mud.

The precise tones the birds used were

slightly different than those in Anhui,

but that was only natural. After all,

the human dialects differed between

Anhui and Sichuan too.

December 2013 63

Accounting Firms

Harris Corporate Services Ltd

www.harrissec.com.cn

Shanghai Office

Suite 904, OOCL Plaza,

841 Yan An Zhong Road,

Jing’An,

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6289 8813

Fax:+86 21 6289 8816

info.sh@harrissec.com.cn

Beijing Office

Room 2302, E-Tower, No.12

Guanghua Road, Chaoyang,

Beijing, PRC

Tel: +86 10 6591 8087

Fax: +86 10 8599 9882

info.bj@harrissec.com.cn

Guangzhou Office

Room D-E, 11/F, Yueyun

Building

3 Zhongshan 2nd Road

Guangzhou, PRC

Tel: +86 20 8762 0508

Fax: +86 20 3762 0543

info.gz@harrissec.com.cn

Hong Kong Office

7/F, Hong Kong Trade Centre

161-167 Des Voeux Road Central

Hong Kong, PRC

Tel: +852 2541 6632

Fax: +852 2541 9339

info@harrissec.com.hk

Airlines

Beijing

Lufthansa German Airlines

Beijing Office

www.lufthansa.com.cn

S101 Beijing Lufthansa Center

50 Liangmaqiao Road, Chaoyang

Tel: +86 10 6468 8838

Northwest Airlines Airport

Office

www.nwa.com

32271 Passenger Terminal 2,

Capital International Airport

Tel: +86 010 6459 7827

KLM - Greater China Regional

Office

www.klm.com.cn

1609-1611 Kuntai International

Mansion, B12 Chaoyangmenwai

Avenue, Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 10 5922 0747

Fax: +86 10 5879 7621

Shanghai

Air France - Shanghai Office

www.airfrance.com.cn

3901B Ciro’s Plaza

388 Nanjing Road West

Tel: +86 21 6334 5702

mail.corporate.sha@airfrance.fr

Business Schools

Shanghai

Fudan University - Washington

University EMBA

www.olin.wustl.edu/shanghai

(English)

www.fdms.edu.cn/olin (Chinese)

Room 710, 670 Guoshun Road

Shanghai, China, 200433

Tel: +86 21 5566 4788

Fax: +86 21 6565 4103

Manchester Business School

Part-time Global MBA

http://china.portals.mbs.ac.uk

Starts December 2013,

Shanghai

Suite 628, 6/F Shanghai Centre,

1376 Nanjing Road West,

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6279 8660

mba@mbs-worldwide.ac.cn

Tongji University SIMBA

A309 Sino-French Center, Tongji

University, 1239 Siping Road

Shanghai, PRC

Tel: +86 21 6598 0610

Fax: +86 21 6598 3540

China Europe Int’l Business

School

(CEIBS) MBA

www.ceibs.edu

Tel: +86 21 2890 5555

Fax: +86 21 2890 5200

admissions@ceibs.edu

Shanghai Jiaotong-Euromed

Management AEMBA Program

(MBA/EMBA)

www.aemba.com.cn

Tel: +86 21 5230 1598

Fax: +86 21 5230 3357

aemba@sjtu.edu.cn

International Schools

Harrow International School

Beijing

www.harrowbeijing.cn

No. 5, 4th Block, Anzhenxili

Chaoyang, Beijing 100029

PRC

Tel: +86 10 6444 8900

Fax: +86 10 6445 3870

agan@harrowbeijing.cn

Saint Paul American School

www.stpaulschool.cn

18 Guan Ao Yuan, Longgang

Road Qinghe, Haidian, Beijing

100192

PRC

Tel: +86 137 1881 0084

spasadmissions@gmail.com

Shanghai

Livingston American School

www.laschina.org

580 Ganxi Road

Tel: +86 21 6238 3511

Fax:+86 21 5218 0390

Shanghai Community

International School (Pudong

Campus)

www.scischina.org

800 Xiuyan Road, Kangqiao,

Pudong

Tel: +86 21 5812 9888

Fax:+86 21 5812 9000

British International School

Shanghai - Pudong Campus

www.bisshanghai.com

600 Cambridge Forest New

Town, Lane 2729 Hunan Road,

Pudong

Tel: +86 21 5812 7455

Hotels

Shanghai

Grand Mercure Hongqiao

Shanghai

www.grandmercurehongqiao.com

369 Xian Xia Road, Chang Ning

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 5153 3300

Fax: +86 21 5153 3555

LISTING

December 201364

reservation@

grandmercurehongqiao-shanghai.

com

Starwood Asia Pacific Hotels

& Resorts PTE. Ltd. Shanghai

Office

www.starwoodhotels.com

19/F Phase 1 Huanmao Building

999 Huaihai Road Central,

Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6141 7799

Fax: +86 21 6391 8220

The Leading Hotels of the

World, Ltd. Shanghai Rep.

Office

www.lhw.com

501A Shanghai Center, 1376

Nanjing Road West, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6279 8951

Fax: +86 21 6279 8952

HR/Recruitment

Beijing

Beijing Deco Personal Services

Ltd.

china.adecco.com

D 9/F Tower II China Central

Place, 79 Jianguo Road,

Chaoyang, Beijing

Tel: +86 010 5920 4320

Fax: +86 010 5920 4322

beijing.cn@adecco.com

Guangdong

Levin Human Resources

Development (Guangzhou) Ltd.

www.levin.com.hk

V15 4/F Goldlion Digital Network

Center, 138 Tiyu Road East,

Tianhe, Guangzhou, Guangdong

Tel: +86 020 2886 0665

Fax: +86 020 3878 1801

info@levin.com.hk

Shanghai

ADP China

30/F Golden Bell Plaza, 98

Huaihai Road Central, Shanghai

Tel: +86 021 2326 7999

Hudson Recruitment

(Shanghai) Co., Ltd.

2302-2303, 2201-2206 Hongyi

International Plaza, 288 Jiujiang

Road, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 2321 7888

shresume@hudson.com

Language Schools

MandarinKing

www.mandarinking.cn

Shanghai

No.555 West Nanjing Road,

Room 1207 12th Floor, Plaza

555 Shanghai, PRC

Course Inquiry: 400 618 6685

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 1063

Office Tel: +86 21 6209 8671

study@mandarinking.cn

PR Agencies

Ketchum Newscan Public

Relations

www.ketchum.com

Shanghai

218 Tianmu Road West

Tel: +86 21 6353 2288

Fax: +86 21 6353 2276

Beijing

A6, Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Chaoyang

Tel: +86 10 5907 0055

Fax: +86 10 5907 0188

Ogilvy Group

www.ogilvy.com

Beijing

9/F Huali Building, 58 Jinbao

Street, Dongcheng

Tel: +86 10 8520 6000

Fax: +86 10 8520 6060

Real Estate/Serviced Apartments

Oakwood Residence Funder

Chengdu

www.Oakwood.com/reschengdu

No.7 Xin Xiwang Road, Wu Hou

District, Chengdu

Tel: +86 28 8535 6666

reserve.resfunderchengdu@

oakwoodasia.com

Belvedere Service Apartments

www.belvedere.com.cn

Belvedere Service Apartments

833 Changning Road, Shanghai

200050

Tel: +86 21 6213 2222

Fax: +86 21 6251 0000

leasing@belvedere.com.cn

Savills Residence Century Park

www.savillsresidence.com

No. 1703, Lane 1883, Huamu

Road Pudong, Shanghai 201303,

PRC

Tel: +86 21 5197 6688

info@savillsresidence.com

Park View Apartment

wwww.parkview-sh.com

Block 1-4, No. 888

Changning Road

Shanghai, 200042

Tel: +86 21 5241 8028

leasing@parkview-sh.com

Lanson Place Central Park

Residences

enquiry.lpcp@lansonplace.com

Tower 23, Central Park

No. 6 Chaoyangmenwai Avenue

Chaoyang, Beijing 100020

Tel: +86 10 8588 9588

Fax: +86 10 8588 9599

Shanghai

Lanson Place Jin Qiao Serviced

Residences

enquiry.lpjq@lansonplace.com

No. 27 & 28, Lane 399 Zao

Zhuang Road, Pudong, Shanghai

200136

PRC

Tel: +86 21 5013 3888

Fax: +86 21 5013 3666

Real Estate/Business Park

Sandhill Plaza

www.sandhillplaza.cn

2290 Zuchongzhi Rd, Zhangjiang

Hi-Tech Park, Shanghai 201303

Tel: +86 21 6075 2555

Leasing@sandhill.cn

Shenyang

Shenyang International

Software Park

No.860-1 Shangshengou,

Dongling, Shenyang City,

December 2013 65

Liaoning Province, 110167

Tel: +86 24 8378 0500

Fax: +86 24 8378 0528

Real Estate/HOPSCA

Shanghai Jiatinghui Property

Development Co., Ltd

www.antinganting.com.cn

Life Hub @ Anting No 1033

Moyu Rd S, Anting, Shanghai

Tel: +86 21 6950 2255

Fax: +86 21 6950 2833

jean.liu@chongbang.com

Serviced Offi ces

The Executive Centre

Shanghai

International Finance Centre

Level 8, International Finance

Center, 8 Century Avenue

Pudong

CITIC Square

Level 35, CITIC Square, 1168

Nanjing West Road, Jing’an

Xintiandi

Level 5, Xintiandi, 159 Madang

Road, Luwan

The Centre

Level 20,The Centre, 989

Changle Road, Xuhui

BEIJING (12 LOCATIONS)

Regus China World Tower 3

15/F China World Tower 3,

1 Jianguomenwai Avenue

Chaoyang District

CHENDU (3 LOCATIONS)

Regus Yanlord Landmark

36/F, Yanlord Landmark Office

Tower

No.1, Section 2, Renmin South

Road

Jinjiang District

CHONGQING

Regus Yangtze River

International Plaza

33/F Yangtze River International

Plaza

22 Nanbin Road

Nanan District

DALIAN

Regus Dalian World Trade

Center

12/F, 25 Tongxing Street

Zhongshan District

GUANGZHOU (5 LOCATIONS)

Regus G.T. Land Plaza (NEW)

12/F, Tower A, Phase 1

G.T. Land Plaza, No. 85

Huacheng Avenue

Tian He District

HANGZHOU (4 LOCATIONS)

Regus Euro American Centre

4/F Euro America Center

18 Jiaogong Road,

Xihu District

NANJING

Regus Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Tower (COMING SOON)

8 F, Jinling Hotel Asia Pacific

Tower, No. 2, Hanzhong Road,

Gulou District

SHANGHAI (21 LOCATIONS)

Regus Plaza 66

15/F, Tower 2, Plaza 66,

No.1266, West Nanjing Road,

Jing’an District

Regus One Corporate Avenue

15/F One Corporate Avenue

222 Hubin Road

Luwan District

Regus Jin Mao Tower

31/F Jin Mao Tower

88 Shiji Avenue

Lujiazui, Pudong

Regus One Prime

25 F, One Prime

No. 360, Wu Jin Road,

Hongkou District,

SHENZHEN (5 LOCATIONS)

Regus Futian NEO

44/F, NEO Tower A

6011 Shennan Avenue

Futian District

Regus New World Centre

(NEW)

23/F, New World Center,

No. 6009, Yitian Road,

Futian District

SUZHOU

Regus Suzhou JinHope plaza

(COMING SOON)

11/F, Tower2, Jin Hope Plaza

88 Hua Chi Street, SIP

TIANJIN (2 LOCATIONS)

Regus Tianjin Centre

8/F Tianjin Centre

No.219 Nanjing Road

Heping District

WUHAN

Regus Wuhan Tiandi –

Corporate Centre 5

8F, Wuhan Tiandi – Corporate

Center 5, No. 1628 Zhong Shan

Avenue

Jiang’an District

Apollo Business Center

Apollo Huaihai Center [New]

4/F, Fuxing Commercial Building

139 Ruijin Road (No.1)

Huangpu

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6136-6088

Apollo Flagship Center

Apollo Building

1440 Yan’an Road (M)

Jing’an

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6133-1888

Apollo Tomson Center

22/F, Tomson Commercial

Building

710 Dongfang Road

Pudong

Shanghai

Tel: 021-6165-2288

Apollo Xuhui Center

16/F, Feidiao International Building

1065 Zhaojiabang Road

Xuhui

Shanghai

Tel: 021-5158-1688

Apollo Hongqiao Center

26/F, New Town Center Building

83 Loushanguan Road

Changning

Shanghai

Tel: 021-3133-2688

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