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See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 May 13, 2015 Page 1 of 22
Critical Sector Data Update Research Department行业关键数据更新
研究部
13 May 2015
Sector: Oil & Gas, Petrochemicals
Sector: Nonferrous Metals, Precious Metal
Figure 1 1-Y Crude Oil prices Figure 2 10-Y Crude Oil prices一年国际油价 十年国际油价
Brent Oil spot
WTI Oil spot
Dubai Oil Spot
YTD 14.5% 11.2% 17.5%
YTD YOY -47.9% -48.9% -47.4%
wow -3.8% -1.9% -2.4%
mom 11.3% 14.7% 15.4% yoy -41.0% -41.1% -39.4%
52w H / L 115 / 45
108 / 43
111 / 43
30
50
70
90
110
130
150
May‐14 Jul‐14 Sep‐14 Nov‐14 Jan‐15 Mar‐15 May‐15
Brent Oil Spot(US$/bbl) WTI Oil Spot(US$/bbl)
Dubai Oil Spot(US$/bbl)
0
40
80
120
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Brent Oil Spot (US$/bbl)
WTI Oil Spot (US$/bbl)
Dubai Oil Spot (US$/bbl)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 3 Domestic Gasoline & Diesel Retail Price Cap
国内汽油柴油最高零售价
Gasoline (RMB
/Tonne)
Diesel (RMB
/Tonne) YTD 7.7% 13.3%
YTD YOY -20.3% -21.9%
wow 3.2% 3.5%
mom 7.3% 7.9%
yoy -14.4% -15.1%
52w H / L 9808 / 7076
8722 / 6143
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
May‐12 Nov‐12 May‐13 Nov‐13 May‐14 Nov‐14 May‐15
Gasoline (RMB /Tonne) Diesel (RMB /Tonne)
Source: China NDRC
Figure 4 1-Y Gold prices & Dollar index Figure 5 10-Y Gold prices & Dollar index
一年国际金价和美元指数 十年国际金价和美元指数
Gold price
Dollar Index (RHS)
YTD 0.25% 5.31%
YTD YOY -6.41% 19.26%
wow -0.28% -0.43%
mom -1.87% -4.29%
yoy -8.05% 18.99%
52w H / L 1339 / 1141
100 / 80
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
96
99
102
105
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
Gold price (USD/Oz) Dollar Index (RHS)
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
200
500
800
1,100
1,400
1,700
2,000
2,300
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Gold price (USD/Oz) Dollar Index (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 2 of 22
Figure 6&7 1-Y Copper Prices & Stock Figure 8&9 10-Y Copper Prices & Stock一年铜价格与库存 十年铜价格与库存
LME Copper Price (RHS)
LME Copper Inventory
YTD 1.39% 91.54%
YTD YOY -14.35% n/a
wow -0.20% -0.16%
mom 5.77% 2.73%
yoy -5.30% 62.76%
52w H / L 7175 / 5395
342625 / 140675
SHFE Copper
price (RHS) SHFE Copper
InventoryYTD 0.35% 63.79%
YTD YOY -12.25% n/a
wow 0.68% -2.58%
mom 5.53% -23.87%
yoy -3.56% 102.37%
52w H / L 51340 / 39210
246656 / 74336
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
5,000
5,500
6,000
6,500
7,000
7,500
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
LME Copper Price (USD/Tonne)LME Copper Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
SHFE Copper price (RMB/Tonne)
SHFE Copper Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LME Copper Price (USD/Tonne)
LME Copper Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SHFE Copper price (RMB/Tonne)
SHFE Copper Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 10&11 1-Y Aluminum Prices & Stock
Figure 12&13 10-Y Aluminum Prices & Stock
一年铝价格与库存 十年铝价格与库存
LME Aluminum
Price (RHS) LME Aluminum
InventoryYTD 1.97% -8.68%
YTD YOY 2.38% N/A
wow -1.10% 0.79%
mom 7.03% -1.32%
yoy 7.24% -27.63%
52w H / L 2107 / 1745
5313300 / 3814825
SHFE Aluminum
price (RHS) SHFE Aluminum
Inventory YTD 2.83% 33.92%
YTD YOY -1.92% N/A
wow 0.26% 6.46%
mom 1.66% 13.19%
yoy 2.40% -32.10%
52w H / L 14915 / 12605
409137 / 186027
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
1,600
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
LME Aluminum Price (USD/Tonne)
LME Aluminum Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
11,000
11,500
12,000
12,500
13,000
13,500
14,000
14,500
15,000
15,500
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
SHFE Aluminum price (RMB/Tonne)
SHFE Aluminum Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LME Aluminum Price (USD/Tonne)
LME Aluminum Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SHFE Aluminum price (RMB/Tonne)
SHFE Aluminum Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 3 of 22
Figure 14&15 1-Y Zinc Prices & Stock Figure 16&17 10-Y Zinc Prices & Stock一年锌价格与库存 十年锌价格与库存
LME Zinc
Price (RHS) LME Zinc Inventory
YTD 8.13% -34.25%
YTD YOY 5.58% N/A
wow 0.47% -2.92%
mom 6.56% -10.74%
yoy 15.72% -40.26%
52w H / L 2410 / 1988
761175 / 454725
SHFE Zinc
price (RHS) SHFE Zinc Inventory
YTD 2.28% 133.02%
YTD YOY 8.21% N/A
wow -0.84% 17.58%
mom 4.70% 30.32%
yoy 12.96% -19.78%
52w H / L 17380 / 15080
242466 / 76353
400,000
450,000
500,000
550,000
600,000
650,000
700,000
750,000
800,000
1,700
1,800
1,900
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
LME Zinc Price (USD/Tonne)LME Zinc Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
70,000
120,000
170,000
220,000
270,000
320,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
SHFE Zinc price (RMB/Tonne)
SHFE Zinc Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LME Zinc Price (USD/Tonne)LME Zinc Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
SHFE Zinc price (RMB/Tonne)
SHFE Zinc Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 18 1-Y Nickel Prices & Stock Figure 19 10-Y Nickel Prices & Stock一年镍价格与库存 十年镍价格与库存
LME Nickel Price (RHS)
LME Nickel Inventory
YTD -5.61% 6.78%
YTD YOY -10.33% N/A
wow 4.00% -0.71%
mom 13.27% 2.29%
yoy -28.16% 58.62%
52w H / L 21000 / 12395
444756 / 278130
140,000
190,000
240,000
290,000
340,000
390,000
440,000
490,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
LME Nickel Price (USD/Tonne)
LME Nickel Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LME Nickel Price (USD/Tonne)
LME Nickel Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 20 1-Y Lead Prices & Stock Figure 21 10-Y Lead Prices & Stock一年铅价格与库存 十年铅价格与库存
LME Lead
Price (RHS) LME Lead Inventory
YTD 9.80% -26.50%
YTD YOY -11.14% N/A
wow -3.41% -4.91%
mom 2.18% -26.37%
yoy -2.16% -15.67%
52w H / L 2301 / 1687
238050 / 163150
-40,000
10,000
60,000
110,000
160,000
210,000
260,000
1,620
1,720
1,820
1,920
2,020
2,120
2,220
2,320
2,420
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
LME Lead Price (USD/Tonne)
LME Lead Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LME Lead Price (USD/Tonne)
LME Lead Inventory (Tonne-RHS)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 4 of 22
Figure 22 10-Y China Growth Rate of Value-Added of Industry
Figure 23&24 1-Y&8-Y China PMI and HSBC PMI
十年中国工业增加值增长速度 一年和八年中国 PMI 与汇丰 PMI
CHVAIOY
Index YTD N/A
wow N/A
mom 0.6 ppt
yoy -2.5 ppt
52w H / L 9.2 / 5.6
China PMI Surveys
Manufacturing
China HSBC Manufacturing
PMI YTD N/A N/A
wow N/A N/A
mom 0.0 ppt -0.7 ppt
yoy -0.3 ppt 0.8 ppt
52w H / L 51.7 / 49.8
51.7 / 48.9
0
5
10
15
20
25
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13Jul-13A
ug-13S
ep-13O
ct-13N
ov-13D
ec-13Jan-14Feb-14M
ar-14A
pr-14M
ay-14Jun-14Jul-14A
ug-14S
ep-14O
ct-14N
ov-14D
ec-14Jan-15Feb-15M
ar-15A
pr-15
1-Y China PMI Surveys Manufacturing
1-Y China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
8-Y China PMI Surveys Manufacturing
8-Y China HSBC Manufacturing PMI
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing; HSBC
Sector: Steel, Cement and Construction Materials
Figure 25 1-Y Steel prices Figure 26 9-Y Steel prices一年钢材价格 九年钢材价格
Wire Rod
Hot Rolled
Cold Rolled
20mm Medium
Plate YTD -10.5% -16.3% -16.3% -14.3% YTD YOY -23.8% -23.8% -16.8% -25.6%
wow -1.0% -0.4% -0.8% -0.6%
mom -0.7% 2.7% -3.0% -1.4%
yoy -25.8% -26.7% -22.3% -28.9%
52w H / L
3397 / 2512
3406 / 2438
4106 / 3191
3470 / 2470
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
Wire Rod (RMB/Tonne)
Hot Rolled (RMBTonne)
Cold Rolled (RMB/Tonne)
20mm Medium Plate (RMB/Tonne)
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Wire Rod (RMB/Tonne)Hot Rolled (RMBTonne)Cold Rolled (RMB/Tonne)20mm Medium Plate (RMB/Tonne)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 5 of 22
Sector: Aviation, Automobiles
Figure 27 2-Y Cement prices 二年国内水泥价格
North China
North East
East China
Central China
YTD -9.4% -0.5% -11.3% -10.7% YTD YOY -15.7% -8.4% -17.5% -15.6%
wow 0.0% 0.2% -0.1% 0.0%
mom 0.2% 1.2% -2.1% 0.2%
yoy -20.5% -9.1% -20.5% -21.1% 52w H/L
298 / 237
394 / 352
353 / 280
306 / 241
South China
South West
North West
YTD -11.4% -11.2% -2.7% YTD YOY -15.5% -12.5% -10.3%
wow 0.0% 0.0% 2.2%
mom -5.6% -3.3% 2.2%
yoy -22.1% -21.7% -10.0%
52w H/L 386 / 298
349 / 268
317 / 277
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15
North China (RMB/Tonne) South West (RMB/Tonne)
North East (RMB/Tonne) East China (RMB/Tonne)
Central China (RMB/Tonne) South China (RMB/Tonne)
North West (RMB/Tonne)
Source: China Cement Association
Figure 28: 6-Y RPK & PLF Figure 29: 6-Y RTK & LF六年收入客公里及客座率 六年总收入吨公里及总载运率
RPK (Mn passenger
kilometers)
RTK (Mn ton
kilometers) PLF
(pps) LF
(pps) YTD YOY 15.1% 14.8% ‐2.94 ‐0.56
wow N/A N/A N/A N/A mom 3.7% -0.3% 9.0% 1.1% yoy 23.1% 17.6% -1.3% -0.6%
52w H/ L 60741 / 49011
6803 / 5897
87 / 78
74 / 70
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
55,000
60,000
65,000
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PLF (%) RPK (Million passenger-kilometers)-RHS
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
LF (%) RTK (Million tonne-kilometers) - RHS
Note: Latest data for RPK is 03/2015; for PLF is 02/2015; Latest data in Figure 29 is 02/2015.
Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China
Figure 30: 6-Y PLF & Ticket Price Figure 31: 3-Y Domestic Jet Fuel Ex-factory price
六年客座率及航空票价 三年国内航油出厂价格
Ticket Price Index
Domestic Jet Fuel Ex-factory
price (RMB/Tonne)
YTD 5.7% -12.6%
YTD YOY -2.2% -40.3%
wow N/A 0.0%
mom 5.7% 0.8%
yoy -2.0% -40.2%
52w H / L 113 / 97
6985 / 3812
75
85
95
105
115
125
135
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PLF (%) Ticket Price Index (RHS)
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
Apr-12 Oct-12 Apr-13 Oct-13 Apr-14 Oct-14 Apr-15
Domestic Jet Fuel Ex-factory price (RMB/Tonne)
Note: Latest data in Figure 30 is 02/2015. Source: Civil Aviation Administration of China Source: China NDRC
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 6 of 22
Figure 32: 1-Y Jet Fuel Prices Figure 33: 10-Y Jet Fuel Prices一年航油价格 十年航油价格
Singapore Jet Fuel
(USD/barrel)
Brent Oil spot
(USD/barrel) YTD 10.6% 15.0% YTD YOY -41.9% -46.8%
wow 0.4% -2.3%
mom 14.1% 12.2%
yoy -34.7% -40.1%
52w H / L 60.49 / 124.87
46.59 / 115.06
40
60
80
100
120
140
May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15
Brent Oil Spot (USD/barrel)
Singapore Jet Fuel (USD/barrel)
0
40
80
120
160
200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Brent Oil Spot (USD/barrel) Singapore Jet Fuel (USD/barrel)
Source: WIND, Bloomberg Source: WIND, Bloomberg
Figure 34 1-Y USD/CNY Index & NDF Figure 35 10-Y USD/CNY Index & NDF一年美元人民币汇率及 NDF 十年美元人民币汇率及 NDF
USD/CNY NDF YTD 0.03% -1.18%
YTD YOY 1.4% 2.7%
wow 0.1% -0.1%
mom 0.0% -1.0%
yoy -0.4% 0.4%
52w H / L 6.2747 / 6.1114
6.4195 / 6.205
6
6.1
6.2
6.3
6.4
6.5
6.6
May‐14 Aug‐14 Nov‐14 Feb‐15 May‐15
12M USD/CNY NDF USD/CNY Spot
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
9.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
USD/CNY Index 12M USD/CNY NDF
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 36 Yearly Comparison of Car Sales
Figure 37 Yearly Comparison of Car Sales Growth YoY
汽车销量年度对比 汽车销量年度增长对比（同比）
Auto sales PV sales CV sales
YTD YOY 2.8% 7.7% -18.9% wow N/A N/A N/A mom -11.0% -10.8% -12.0% yoy -0.5% 3.7% -17.6%
52w H / L 2410089 / 1593301
2061044 / 1357948
370199 / 196568
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
Jan
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
No
v
Dec
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Source: China Association of Automobile Manufacturers
Figure 38 1-Y PV Retail Discount Rate Figure 39 1-Y Inventory Ratio of Dealers一年乘用车零售折扣率 一年乘用车经销商库存系数
Discount Rate(pts)
Inventory Ratio of Dealers(pts)
YTD 0.1 0.1YTD YOY 1.5 0.1wow N/A N/A
mom 0.1 0.1
yoy 1.4 0.07
52w H / L 8.3 / 6.4
1.6 / 1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
% Discount Rate
·
0.5
0.7
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5
1.7
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Inventory Ratio
Source: I.S. Engine Source: WAYS Consulting
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 7 of 22
Sector: Shipping & Logistics, Ports
Figure 40 2-Y Shanghai Rubber Prices两年上海橡胶价格
Rubber Shanghai (RMB/MT)
YTD 3.35%
YTD YOY -10.3%
wow -1.1% mom 15.7%
yoy 5.6%
52w H / L 15135 / 10405
7,000
12,000
17,000
22,000
May‐13 Aug‐13 Nov‐13 Feb‐14 May‐14 Aug‐14 Nov‐14 Feb‐15 May‐15
Rubber Shanghai (RMB/MT)
Source: Bloomberg
Figure 41 1-Y BDI Figure 42 10-Y BDI 一年波罗的海干散货运价指数 十年波罗的海干散货运价指数
BDI
YTD -26.09%
YTD YOY -52.2%
wow -0.3%
mom -0.3%
yoy -41.4%
52w H / L 1484 / 509
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
BDI
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BDI
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 43 1-Y BDTI & BCTI Figure 44 10-Y BDTI & BCTI一年波罗的海原油运价指数及波罗的海成
品油运价指数 十年波罗的海原油运价指数及波罗的海成
品油运价指数
BCTI BDTI
YTD -10.15% -36.60%
YTD YOY 13.8% 2.1%
wow -0.6% 0.1%
mom -12.4% -3.4%
yoy 17.6% 12.9%
52w H / L 823 / 510
975 / 604
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
BDTI BCTI
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BDTI BCTI
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 8 of 22
Figure 45 1-Y BUNKER Figure 46 10-Y BUNKER一年彭博 380 Centistoke 船用燃油价格/新加坡
十年彭博 380 Centistoke 船用燃油价格/新加坡
BUNKER
YTD 23.8%
YTD YOY -46.7%
wow 1.6%
mom 18.5%
yoy -36.0%
52w H / L 622.8 / 259.48
220
270
320
370
420
470
520
570
620
670
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
BUNKER (USD/Metric Tonne)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
BUNKER (USD/Metric Tonne)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 47 8-Y China PMI: Manufacturing - New Export Order Index
八年中国采购经理指数（制造业）:新出口
订单
China PMI: Manufacturing – New Export
Order Index YTD N/A
wow N/A
mom -0.2 ppt
yoy -1.0 ppt
52w H / L 50.8 / 48.1
20
30
40
50
60
70
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China PMI: Manufacturing - New Export Order Index
Source: China Federation of Logistics & Purchasing
Figure 48 2-Y China Import & Export (Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)
Figure 49 2-Y China Import & Export (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM)
两年中国月度进出口值增长（季节调整：同
比） 两年中国月度进出口值增长（季节调整：环
比）
China Monthly
Export (SeasonallyAdjusted)
ChinaMonthly
Import(Seasonally
Adjusted)
China Monthly
Export & Import
(Seasonally Adjusted)
mom (RMB) 23.2% 5.1% 14.4%
yoy (RMB) -5.7% -16.0% -10.6^
mom 22.9% 5.0% 14.2%
yoy -5.9% -16.1% -10.7%
52w H / L 12.3% / -5.9%
4.6% / -25.5%
8.4% / -16.2%
-30%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15
China Monthly Export (Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)
China Monthly Import (Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)
China Monthly Export & Import (Seasonally Adjusted, YoY)
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Apr-13 Aug-13 Dec-13 Apr-14 Aug-14 Dec-14 Apr-15
China Monthly Export (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM)
China Monthly Import (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM)
China Monthly Export & Import (Seasonally Adjusted, MoM)
Source: China Customs Source: China Customs
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 9 of 22
Figure 50 1-Y CCBFI Figure 51 5-Y CCBFI 一年中国沿海(散货)运价指数 五年中国沿海(散货)运价指数
China costalbulk freight
index (CCBFI)
YTD -7.4%
YTD YOY -22.6%
wow -0.4%
mom 3.2%
yoy -20.0%
52w H / L 1042 / 808
750
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
China costal bulk freight index (CCBFI)
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
1,700
1,900
2,100
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China costal bulk freight index (CCBFI)
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange
Figure 52 1-Y CCFI Figure 53 5-Y CCFI 一年中国出口集装箱运价指数 五年中国出口集装箱运价指数
Chinacontainerized freight index
(CCFI)
YTD -16.6%
YTD YOY -7.6%
wow -1.2%
mom -8.3%
yoy -18.2%
52w H / L 1121 / 888
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
China containerized freight index (CCFI)
700
800
900
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China containerized freight index (CCFI)
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange
Figure 54 1-Y SCFI 一年上海出口集装箱运价指数
Shanghaicontainerized freight index
(SCFI)
YTD -20.9%
YTD YOY -15.4%
wow 9.1%
mom 4.7%
yoy -28.6%
52w H / L 1195 / 702
650
750
850
950
1,050
1,150
1,250
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI)
Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 10 of 22
Sector:, Electricity
Figure 55 6-Y 5,500Kcal Thermal Coal FOB at Qinhuangdao
Figure 56 6-Y Coal Inventory at Qinhuangdao
六年秦皇岛 5,500 大卡动力煤平仓价 六年秦皇岛煤炭库存 QHD Q5500K
YTD -23.0%
YTD YOY -13.9%
wow -2.7%
mom -6.9%
yoy -24.5%
52w H / L 535/ 404
QHD Inventory
YTD -7.6%
YTD YOY 16.3%
wow 10.5%
mom -16.6%
yoy 18.9%
52w H / L 858/ 524
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
RMB/t 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15
10Kt QHD Inventory
Source: www.cctd.com.cn Source: www.cctd.com.cn
Figure 57 5-Y Australia BJ Thermal Spot Price
Figure 58 3-Y Coal Inventory of Key Power Plants
五年澳洲 BJ 动力煤现货价格 重点电厂煤炭库存 Australian BJ thermal coal
spot price YTD -2.1% YTD YOY -17.6%
wow 0.0% mom 12.8% yoy -15.5%
52w H / L 74.6/ 54.6
Coal Inventory
of Key Power Plants
Inventory Day of Key Power
Plants YTD -31.1% -5.3% YTD YOY 5.8% 15.7% wow -3.3% -5.3% mom -10.5% -5.3% yoy -21.9% -18.2%
52w H / L 9833/ 5624
32.0/ 18.0
0
40
80
120
160
May-10 May-11 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15
USD/tAustralian BJ thermal coal spot price
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Apr-
12
Jul-1
2
Oct
-12
Jan-
13
Apr-
13
Jul-1
3
Oct
-13
Jan-
14
Apr-
14
Jul-1
4
Oct
-14
Jan-
15
Apr-
15
Day10Kt Coal Inventory of Key Power PlantsInventory Day of Key Power Plants
Source: www.cctd.com.cn. Source: www.cctd.com.cn.
Figure 59 5-Y Monthly China PowerConsumption YOY
Figure 60 5-Y Monthly China Utilization Hours for Thermal Capacity
五年中国月度用电量增长（同比） 五年中国火电装机月度利用小时
Monthly Power Consumption
YoY YTD YOY 0.8% wow N/A mom 23.7% yoy -2.2%
52w H / L 10.2% / -6.3%
Monthly Thermal Capacity
Utilisation YTD YOY -10.0% wow N/A mom -0.7% yoy -16.1%
52w H / L 434 / 337
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
300
350
400
450
500
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Hours 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Note: Latest data in Figures 59-60 are 03/2015. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Source: China Electricity Council.
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 11 of 22
Sector: Property
Sector: Insurance
Figure 61 10-Y Domestic Property Sector YoY Data（Accumulative）
十年商品房投资，新开工及销售增长 （累计同比）
Investment GFA newly constructed
GFA sold (Area)
YTD YOY 6.0% -17.3% -4.8%
wow N/A N/A N/A
mom -10.8% 20.6% -14.3%
yoy 0.5% -14.9% 7.0%
52w H / L N/A N/A N/A
Commodity Building
Sold
Commodity Building
Area Sold (Residential)
Sales (Residential)
YTD YOY -3.1% -5.0% -2.2%
wow N/A N/A N/A
mom -5.5% -13.9% -4.4%
yoy 13.3% 7.7% 16.0%
52w H / L N/A N/A N/A
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Investment YoYGFA newly constructed YoYGFA sold YoYSales (Residential) YoYCommodity Building Sold YoYCommodity Building Area Sold (Residential) YoY
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Figure 62 5-Y sector premiums YTD yoy
Figure 63 5-Y P&C insurance premiums YTD yoy
五年行业保费收入同比增长（月度累计） 五年财产险保费收入同比增长（月度累计）
Sector Premiums
(RMB bn) YTD YOY 20.4% wow N/A mom 23.3% yoy 24.7%
52w H / L 400.6 / 134.3
P&C insurance
Premiums (RMB bn) YTD YOY 12.6% wow N/A mom 51.7% yoy 7.3%
52w H / L 84.2 / 45.2
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Sector premiums YTD yoy
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
P&C insurance premiums YTD yoy
Note: Latest data in Figures 62-63 are 03/2015. Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 12 of 22
Sector: New Energy
Sector: Telecom
Figure 64 5-Y Human insurancepremiums YTD yoy
Figure 65 5-Y Life insurance Premiums YTD yoy
五年人身险保费收入同比增长（月度累计） 五年寿险保费收入同比增长（月度累计）
Human Insurance Premiums (RMB bn)
YTD YOY 23.0% wow N/A mom 14.9% yoy 33.1%
52w H / L 316.3 / 75.0
Life insurance
Premiums (RMB bn)
YTD YOY 22.3% wow N/A mom 6.1% yoy 32.7%
52w H / L 285.4 / 59.2
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Human insurance premiums YTD yoy
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
Life insurance premiums YTD yoy
Note: Latest data in Figures 64-65 are 03/2015. Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission Source: China Insurance Regulatory Commission
Figure 66 3-Y Photovoltaic products price changes 三年光伏产品价格变动
Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module YTD YOY -16.18% -9.81% -22.31% -11.98%
wow -2.59% -0.74% -0.34% -0.88%
mom -3.58% -1.46% -1.69% -3.08%
52w H / L
0.11 / 0.09
0.21 / 0.19
0.38 / 0.29
0.66 / 0.57
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
2012-05 2012-09 2013-01 2013-05 2013-09 2014-01 2014-05 2014-09 2015-01 2015-05
USD/W Polysilicon Wafer Cell Module
Source: Pvinsight
Figure 67 10-Y Monthly Telecom Revenue 十年通信收入
Monthly Telecom
Revenue (RMB 100 Million)
YTD 15.20%
mom 17.6%
yoy -3.5%
52w H / L 1055 / 867
-100
100
300
500
700
900
1,100
1,300
1,500
2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Monthly Telecom Revenue (RMB 100 Million)
Note: Latest data in Figure 67 is 03/2015. Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the PRC
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 13 of 22
Sector: Household Products
Figure 68 9-Y Telephone Call: Mobile Minutes (Monthly Accumulate YoY)
Figure 69 9-Y Monthly Tele Users YoY
九年移动电话通话时长，月度累计增长（同
比） 九年月度通信用户增长（同比）
Telephone call: mobile (incl
Local), million minutes
YoY -2.8%
YTD YoY -2.0% MoM 20.0%
52w H / L 255055.086 / 207450.233
Total Tele Users
(million)
Mobile Users
(million)
Fixed-line Users
(million) YoY 1.8% 3.6% -6.9%
YTD YoY 0.2% 0.3% -0.6%
MoM 0.2% 0.3% -0.6%
52w H / L 1539.388 / 1513.63
20791.852 / -235909.934
1293.968 / 1251.867
-35%
-10%
15%
40%
65%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Telephone call: mobile (incl Local): YTD YoY
Telephone call: mobile (incl Local): YTD YoY
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Tele Users YoY Mobile Users YoY
Fixed-line Users YoY
Note: Latest data in Figures 68-69 are 03/2015. Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the PRC
Source: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the PRC
Figure 70 1-Y NBSK & BHK Prices Figure 71 10-Y NBSK & BHK Prices一年北方漂白软木及硬木牛皮浆价格 十年北方漂白软木及硬木牛皮浆价格
NBSK (USD/ton)
BHK (USD/ton)
YTD -8.2% 4.5%
YTD YoY -2.8% -1.2%
wow -0.1% 0.3%
mom -1.1% 1.8%
yoy -7.4% 3.2%
52w H / L 934 / 855
777 / 724
700
750
800
850
900
950
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15
NBSK (USD/Metric Tonne)
BHK (USD/Metric Tonne)
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
NBSK (USD/Metric Tonne) BHK (USD/Metric Tonne)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 72 7-Y CUS Prices Figure 73 9-Y OCC Prices七年中国硬木牛皮浆价格 九年美国废纸价格
CUS (USD/ton)
YTD 7.0%
YTD YoY -2.1%
wow 0.7%
mom 2.2%
yoy 7.1%
52w H / L 648 / 582
OCC (EUR/ton)
YTD 4.8%
YTD YoY -9.8%
wow 2.1%
mom 3.4%
yoy -3.7%
52w H / L 110 / 101
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
CUS (USD/Metric Tonne)
0
50
100
150
200
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
OCC (EUR/Metric Tonne)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 14 of 22
Sector: Consumer (Food & Beverage)
Figure 74 7-Y Raw Milk Prices Figure 75 7-Y Flour Prices七年生鲜乳价格 七年面粉价格
Raw Milk (RMB/kg)
YTD -9.3%
YTD YoY -19.0%
wow 0.0%
mom -0.3%
yoy -18.4%
52w H / L 4.20 / 3.40
Flour (RMB/kg)
YTD 0.6%
YTD YoY 2.6%
wow 0.0%
mom 0.6%
yoy 2.8%
52w H / L 3.62 / 3.52
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Raw Milk Price (RMB/kg)
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Flour Price (RMB/kg)
Source: Ministry of Agriculture of the PRC Source: Ministry of Agriculture of the PRC
Figure 76 9-Y Hog & Pork Prices Figure 77 6-Y Hog Inventory九年生猪及猪肉价格 六年生猪存栏头数
Hog (RMB/kg) Pork (RMB/kg)
YTD 3.9% -0.3%
YTD YoY 7.0% 3.6%
wow 1.2% 3.3%
mom 9.3% 5.5%
yoy 6.5% 15.8%
52w H / L 15.4 / 11.6
23.3 / 18.5
Hog Inventory
(mn heads)
YTD -8.2%
YTD YoY -9.5%
wow n.a.
mom -0.7%
yoy -10.9%
52w H / L 436 / 387
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hog Price (RMB/kg) Pork Price (RMB/kg)
380
400
420
440
460
480
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Hog Inventory (mn heads)
Note: Latest data in Figure 77 is 03/2015. Source: China Animal Agriculture Association Source: The Central People’s Government of the PRC
Figure 78 1-Y Palm Oil Prices Figure 79 10-Y Palm Oil Prices一年棕榈油价格 十年棕榈油价格
Palm Oil (MYR/ton)
YTD -6.3%
YTD YoY -16.8%
wow 3.7%
mom -0.3%
yoy -18.5%
52w H / L 2672 / 1937
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
2,600
2,800
3,000
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
Palm Oil Price (MYR/Metric Tonne)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Palm Oil Price (MYR/Metric Tonne)
Source: Malaysia Derivatives Exchange Source: Malaysia Derivatives Exchange
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 15 of 22
Figure 80 1-Y PET Resin Prices Figure 81 10-Y PET Resin Prices一年聚酯切片价格 十年聚酯切片价格
PET Resin (RMB/ton)
YTD 17.7%
YTD YoY -22.8%
wow 0.7%
mom 14.6%
yoy -6.6%
52w H / L 9575 / 5850
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
PET Resin Price (RMB/Tonne)
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PET Resin Price (RMB/Tonne)
Source: China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network
Source: China Chemical & Fiber Economic Information Network
Figure 82 1-Y Sugar Prices Figure 83 10-Y Sugar Prices一年白糖价格 十年白糖价格
Sugar (RMB/ton)
YTD 25.2%
YTD YoY 6.5%
wow -0.6%
mom 6.1%
yoy 16.6%
52w H / L 5500 / 3970
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
6,000
May-14 Aug-14 Nov-14 Feb-15 May-15
Sugar Price (RMB/Tonne)
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Sugar Price (RMB/Tonne)
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Figure 84 7-Y Soybean & Soybean OilPrices
Figure 85 7-Y Corn, Peanut & Rapeseed Prices
七年大豆及大豆油价格 七年玉米、花生及油菜籽价格
Soybean (RMB/ton)
Soybean Oil
(RMB/ton)
Soybean Oil: 5L Pack (RMB/ton)
YTD -7.2% 4.8% 0.2%
YTD YoY -14.1% -16.7% -8.9%
wow 0.0% 3.1% 0.0%
mom -4.6% 5.3% -0.6%
yoy -17.1% -11.3% -7.1%
52w H / L 4309 / 3560
6816 / 5581
10840 / 10050
Corn
(RMB/ton) Peanut
(RMB/ton) Rapeseed (RMB/ton)
YTD 0.9% 7.0% -1.8%
YTD YoY 1.9% 6.9% -1.9%
wow -0.5% -0.8% 1.6%
mom -0.6% -0.2% 2.0%
yoy 1.8% 5.4% -1.1%
52w H / L 2560 / 2174
9661 / 7456
5355 / 5050
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Soybean (RMB/ton) - LHSSoybean Oil (RMB/ton) - RHS
Soybean Oil: 5L Pack (RMB/ton) - RHS0
2,500
5,000
7,500
10,000
12,500
15,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Corn Price (RMB/ton) - LHS
Rapeseed Price (RMB/ton) - LHS
Peanut Price (RMB/ton) - RHS
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, Ministry of Agriculture of the PRC
Source: www.cngrain.com
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 16 of 22
Sector: Banking
Figure 86 6-Y Rice Prices Figure 87 5-Y Malting Barley Prices六年大米价格 五年大麦价格
Rice (RMB/kg)
YTD 2.5%
YTD YoY 3.3%
wow n.a.
mom 0.3%
yoy 3.5%
52w H / L 6.17 / 5.96
Malting Barley
(USD/ton)
YTD -2.7%
YTD YoY -15.0%
wow 1.4%
mom 5.1%
yoy -22.6%
52w H / L 323 / 232
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Rice Price (RMB/kg)
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Malting Barley Price (USD/ton)
Note: Latest data in Figure 86 is 4/2015. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: NYSE Liffe
Figure 88 1-Y YoY for M1, M2 & Loan Figure 89 10-Y YoY for M1, M2 & Loan一年 M1，M2 及金融机构各项贷款增长 （同比）
十年 M1，M2 及金融机构各项贷款增长 （同比）
M1 M2 Loans
YTD N/A N/A N/A
wow N/A N/A N/A
mom N/A N/A N/A
yoy 3.7% 10.1% 14.1%
52w H / L 10.6 / 2.9
14.7 / 10.1
14.3 / 13.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15
M1 yoy % M2 yoy % Loans yoy %
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
M1 yoy % M2 yoy % Loans yoy %
Source: The People’s Bank of China Source: The People’s Bank of China
Figure 90 5-Y New RMB Loan Figure 91 5-Y PBOC Money Operations五年金融机构新增人民币贷款 五年央行公开市场操作
New RMB Loan Latest Value (100 Million RMB)
7,079.00
YTD YOY 15.59%
wow N/A
mom -40.0%
yoy -8.6%
52w H / L 14707 / 3852
PBOC
money injection
(100Million RMB)
PBOC money
withdrawal (100Million
RMB)
PBOC net
injection Latest Value 0.00 200.00 -200.00
MTD 1,050.00 1,500.00 -450.00
Latest value/MTD 0.00% 13.33% 44.44%
YTD 8,580.00 7,660.00 920.00
Latest value/YTD 0.00% 2.61% -21.74%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
New RMB Loan (100Million)
-11,000-9,000-7,000-5,000-3,000-1,0001,0003,0005,0007,0009,000
11,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
PBOC money injection (100Million RMB)PBOC money withdrawal (100Million RMB)PBOC net injection (100Million RMB)
Source: The People’s Bank of China Source: Wind
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 17 of 22
Sector: Infrastructure, Toll Roads
Figure 92 1-Y Shibor Figure 93 6-Y Shibor 一年上海银行间同业拆放利率 六年上海银行间同业拆放利率
overnight 1-week 1-month 3-month
wow (pts) -0.274 -0.145 -0.260 -0.188
mom (pts) -1.144 -0.725 -1.438 -1.047
yoy (pts) -0.869 -0.935 -0.540 -1.641
52w H / L % 3.702 / 1.345
5.782 / 2.245
6.13 / 3.12
5.376 / 3.735
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan-
14
Feb-
14
Mar
-14
Apr-1
4
May
-14
Jun-
14
Jul-1
4
Aug-
14
Sep-
14
Oct
-14
Nov-
14
Dec-
14
Jan-
15
Feb-
15
Mar
-15
Apr-1
5
May
-15
%
1-week 1-month
3-month overnight
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
%
overnight 1-week1-month 3-month
Source: SHIBOR Source: SHIBOR
Figure 94 1-Y Transportation FAI Figure 95 6-Y Transportation FAI一年各项交通固定资产投资增长（同比） 六年各项交通固定资产投资增长（同比）
Railway Highway
Inland River
wow N/A N/A N/A mom N/A N/A N/A YoY 18% 9% -20% YTD yoy 29.0% 12.7% -10.4%
52w H / L 7801 / 0
140763493 / 0
4565755 / 0
Coastal Area Others
Total - Exclude Railway
wow N/A N/A N/A
mom N/A N/A N/A
YoY 0% 89% 8%
YTD yoy 18.5% 82.3% 12.6%
52w H / L 8433200 / 0
1288322 / 0
155050770 / 0
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Railway (Cumulative YoY)Highway (Cumulative YoY)Inland River (Cumulative YoY)Coastal Area (Cumulative YoY)Total - Exclude Railway (Cumulative YoY)Others (Cumulative YoY) (RHS)
-600%
0%
600%
1200%
1800%
2400%
3000%
3600%
4200%
4800%
-150%
-100%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Railway (Cumulative YoY)Highway (Cumulative YoY)Inland River (Cumulative YoY)Coastal Area (Cumulative YoY)Total - Exclude Railway (Cumulative YoY)Others (Cumulative YoY) (RHS)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Railway Corporation
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China, China Railway Corporation
Figure 96 1-Y Urban FAI Figure 97 10-Y Urban FAI一年城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（同比） 十年城镇各产业固定资产投资增长（同比）
Total Urban
Primary Industry
Secondary Industry
Tertiary Industry
YTD YOY 12.0% 26.4% 9.8% 13.2%
wow N/A N/A N/A N/A
mom N/A N/A N/A N/A
YoY 9.6% 18.7% 7.7% 10.6%
52w H / L 502005 / 34477
11983 / 554
208107 / 13055
281915 / 20869
3%
13%
23%
33%
43%
53%
Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15
Total Urban FAI (Cumulative YoY)Primary Industry (Cumulative YoY)Secondary Industry (Cumulative YoY)Tertiary Industry (Cumulative YoY)
-30%
10%
50%
90%
130%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Total Urban FAI (Cumulative YoY)Primary Industry (Cumulative YoY)Secondary Industry (Cumulative YoY)Tertiary Industry (Cumulative YoY)
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 18 of 22
Sector: Consumer (Retailing)
Sector: Consumer (Apparel)
Figure 98 1-Y Transportation Statistics Figure 99 8-Y Transportation Statistics一年公路旅客货运量统计 八年公路旅客货运量统计
Passenger Number
Freight Volume
Freight Turnover
YTD YOY -0.1% 6.1% 6.5%
wow N/A N/A N/A
mom -7.6% 10.2% 6.9%
yoy -0.4% 5.3% 4.9%
52w H / L 17.6 / 14.5
31.1 / 16.4
5833 / 2830.8
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15
Passenger Number YoY
Freight Volume YoY
Freight Turnover YoY
‐50%
‐30%
‐10%
10%
30%
50%
70%
Apr‐07 Jul‐08 Oct‐09 Jan‐11 Apr‐12 Jul‐13 Oct‐14
Passenger Number YoY Freight Volume YoY Freight Turnover YoY
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Figure 100 10-Y Monthly Social Retail Sales YoY
Figure 101 Yearly Comparison of Social Retail Sales Growth
十年社会消费品零售总额月度同比 社会消费品零售总额年度增速对比
Retail Sales Growth: monthly
YTD YOY 10.4%
wow N/A
mom 0.74%
yoy 10.0%
52w H / L 12.5% / 10.0%
0
5
10
15
20
25%
7
9
11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
Jan
Feb
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Se
p
Oct
No
v
De
c
% 2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
Figure 102 5-Y Retail sales growth of clothing and textile above designated size monthly YoY
五年限额以上服装鞋帽零售额月度同比
Retail sales growth of
clothing and textile YTD YOY 10.6%
wow N/A
mom -3.0 ppt
yoy 10.9%
52w H / L 13.9%/ 9.1%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
Apr-10 Apr-11 Apr-12 Apr-13 Apr-14 Apr-15
The retail sales growth of clothing and textile YoY
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 19 of 22
Sector: Hotels
Figure 103 1-Y China Cotton Price Index
Figure 104 3-Y China Cotton Price Index
一年国内棉花价格指数 三年国内棉花价格指数 China Cotton Index
YTD -1.6%
YTD YOY -29.3%
wow 0.0%
mom -0.4%
yoy -23.3%
52w H / L 17465 / 13387
11,000
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
May-12 Nov-12 May-13 Nov-13 May-14 Nov-14 May-15
Source: China Cotton Association Source: China Cotton Association
Figure 105 4-Y China Quarterly Star-Rated Hotels Average Room Rate & Occupancy Rate
Figure 106 4-Y China Quarterly Star-Rated Hotels Average Room Rate & Occupancy Rate YoY
四年中国季度星级饭店平均房价和客房出
租率 四年中国季度星级饭店平均房价和客房出
租率（同比）
Occupancy(pts) Room Rate YTD -2.3 4.1%
YTD YOY -1.5 -0.8%
qoq -2.3 4.1%
yoy -0.6 0.7%
52w H / L 59/ 48
355 / 322
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
330
340
350
Mar
-11
Jun-
11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12
Sep
-12
Dec
-12
Mar
-13
Jun-
13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Star-Rated Hotels Average Room RateStar-Rated Hotels Average Occupancy Rate
%RMB
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Occupancy Rate yoy (ppt) Average Room Rate yoy (%)
ppt or %
Note: Latest data in Figures 105-106 are 12/2014. Source: China National Tourism Administration Source: China National Tourism Administration
Figure 107 5-Y China Monthly Visitor Arrivals
Figure 108 5-Y China Monthly Visitor Arrivals YoY
五年中国月度入境人次 五年中国月度入境人次（同比）
Visitor Arrivals ('000)
YTD 31,377
YTD YOY 4.0%
mom 20.6%
yoy 5.0%
52w H / L 11,587.0 / 9,271.3
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep
-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep
-12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep
-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep
-14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Visitor Arrivals(million)
-12.0%
-10.0%
-8.0%
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1Se
p-11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12M
ar-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
l-12
Sep-
12N
ov-1
2Ja
n-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3Se
p-13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14M
ar-1
4M
ay-1
4Ju
l-14
Sep-
14N
ov-1
4Ja
n-15
Mar
-15
Visitor Arrivals YOY
Note: Latest data in Figures 107-108 are 03/2015. Source: China National Tourism Administration Source: China National Tourism Administration
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 20 of 22
Sector: Gaming
Data Last Updated on 13/05/2015 数据最后更新于 2015 年 05 月 13 日
Figure 109 5-Y China Monthly Visitor Tourism Revenue
Figure 110 5-Y China Monthly Visitor Tourism Revenue YoY
五年中国月度外国人旅游收入 五年中国月度外国人旅游收入（同比）
Visitor Tourism
Revenue (US$ mn) YTD 12,805
YTD YOY 9.5%
mom 38.6%
yoy 13.0%
52w H / L 5,128.0 / 3,464.0
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
5,500
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1
Sep-
11
Nov
-11
Jan-
12
Mar
-12
Ma y
-12
Jul-1
2
Sep-
12
Nov
-12
Jan-
13
Mar
-13
Ma y
-13
Jul-1
3
Sep-
13
Nov
-13
Jan-
14
Mar
-14
Ma y
-14
Jul-1
4
Sep-
14
Nov
-14
Jan-
15
Mar
-15
Visitor Tourism Revenue(USD mn)(USD mn)
-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Mar
-11
May
-11
Jul-1
1S
ep-1
1N
ov-1
1Ja
n-12
Mar
-12
May
-12
Jul-1
2S
ep-1
2N
ov-1
2Ja
n-13
Mar
-13
May
-13
Jul-1
3S
ep-1
3N
ov-1
3Ja
n-14
Mar
-14
May
-14
Jul-1
4S
ep-1
4N
ov-1
4Ja
n-15
Mar
-15
Visitor Tourism Revenue YOY
Note: Latest data in Figures109-110 are 03/2015. Source: China National Tourism Administration Source: China National Tourism Administration
Figure 111 10 Year Macau Quarterly Gross Gaming Revenue Breakdown
Figure 112 5 Year Macau Quarterly Gross Gaming Revenue yoy Growth
十年澳门季度博彩总收入 五年澳门季度博彩总收入同比增长
Quarterly Total
Gross Gaming
Revenue
Quarterly VIP Gross
Gaming Revenue
Quarterly Mass
Gross Gaming
Revenue
YTD -14.3% -18.2% -8.2%
YTD YOY -30.6% -35.6% -21.7%
qoq -14.3% -18.2% -8.2%
yoy -36.6% -42.1% -27.0%
52w H / L 91,236.0 / 64,777.0
54,643.0 / 37,671.0
36,593.0 / 27,106.0
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
Quarterly Total Gross Gaming RevenueQuarterly VIP Gross Gaming RevenueQuarterly Mass Gross Gaming Revenue
MOP million
-60.0%
-40.0%
-20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Jun-
10S
ep-1
0D
ec-1
0M
ar-1
1Ju
n-11
Sep
-11
Dec
-11
Mar
-12
Jun-
12S
ep-1
2D
ec-1
2M
ar-1
3Ju
n-13
Sep
-13
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun-
14S
ep-1
4D
ec-1
4M
ar-1
5
Quarterly Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (yoy)Quarterly VIP Gross Gaming Revenue (yoy)Quarterly Mass Gross Gaming Revenue (yoy)
Note: Latest data in Figures 111-112 are 03/2015. Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR
Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR
Figure 113 1-Y Macau Monthly Gross Gaming Revenue & Visitor Arrivals
Figure 114 1-Y Macau Monthly Gross Gaming Revenue & Visitor Arrivals Growth (YoY)
一年澳门月度博彩总收入和入境旅客 (同比)
一年澳门月度博彩总收入和入境旅客增长 (同比)
Monthly Total
Gross Gaming
Revenue
Monthly Total
Visitor Arrivals
Monthly Mainland
China Visitor
Arrivals
YTD -19.3% -7.9% -12.7%
YTD YOY -37.1% -3.6% -2.9%
mom -10.8% -15.2% -23.2%
yoy -38.8% -13.5% -17.6%
52w H / L 32,354.0 / 19,167.0
3,086.3 / 2,270.6
2,131.5 / 1,457.6
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
Monthly Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (Left)Monthly Total Visitor Arrivals (Right)Monthly Mainland China Visitor Arrivals (Right)
MOP million Thousand
-60.0%
-50.0%
-40.0%
-30.0%
-20.0%
-10.0%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
Monthly Macau Gross Gaming Revenue (yoy)Monthly Total Visitor Arrivals (yoy)Monthly Mainland China Visitor Arrivals (yoy)
Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR
Source: Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau of Macao SAR
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 21 of 22
Research Department 研究部
Grace Liu 刘 谷 Head of Research, MarketStrategy, Petrochemicals
主管，市场策略、石化
[email protected] (86755) 23976698 /(852) 25097516
Ray Zhao 赵 睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合、电子商务 [email protected] (86755) 23976755
Harry Chen 陈欢瑜 Aviation, Automobiles &Components
航空、汽车 [email protected] (86755) 23976683
Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection,Infrastructure
环保、基建 [email protected] (852) 25092616
Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭、电力 [email protected] (86755) 23976871
Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费（酒店）、博彩 [email protected] (86755) 23976684
Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage,Household Products)
消费（食品饮料、日用品）
[email protected] (852) 25092642
Jason Song 宋 然 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (852) 25097768
Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (86755) 23976718
Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 [email protected] (852) 25092629
Kevin Guo 郭 勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料、燃气 [email protected] (86755) 23976671
Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信、互联网 [email protected] (852) 25092603
Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险、债券 [email protected] (852) 25095347
Angus Chan 陈 庆 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材 [email protected] (852) 25092665
Richard Cao 曹 柱 Banking 银行 [email protected] (86755) 23976870
Louis Chan 陈少威 Consumer (Apparel) 消费（服装） [email protected] (852) 25095310
Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源、电力设备 [email protected] (852) 25097592
Ivan Zhou 周一帆 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流、港口 [email protected] (86755) 23976685
Andrew Song 宋 涛 Consumer (Retailing),Home Appliances
消费（零售）、家电
[email protected] (852) 25095313
Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 [email protected] (86755) 23976672
Raul Song 宋 辞 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 25095317
Sherry Li 李沁亦 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 23976675
Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理、翻译员 [email protected] (86755) 23976681
See the last page for disclaimer Critical Sector Data Update 行业关键数据更新 13 May 2015 Page 22 of 22
Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%;
or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.
Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.
Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.
Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months
Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%;
or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable. DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS
(1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525), Guotai Junan International
Holdings Limited (01788) and Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.
(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Jiangsu Express-H shares (00177) / China All Access Holdings Ltd. (00633) / China Dredging (00871) / Huaneng Power-H shares (00902) / Huaneng Renewables Corporation Limited-H shares (00958) / Modern Land (01107) / Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd.-H shares (01171) / Merry Garden Holdings Ltd. (01237) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238) / Baguio Green (01397) / Chanjet Information Technology-H shares (01588) / Redco Properties (01622) / China Creative Home (01678) / Colour Life (01778) / CGN Meiya (01811) / Shanghai Electric-H shares (02727) / China Shipping Container Lines Co. Ltd.- H Shares (02866) / Xiezhong International Holdings Limited (03663) / Xiao Nan Guo (03666) / China U-Ton Holdings Ltd. (06168) / Singyes Solar (00750) / CGN Power (01816) / LIJUN INT'L (02005) and China Wood Optimization (08099) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.
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