СЕКЦИЯI - tsue.uztsue.uz/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/1-seksiya.pdf · Тошкент давлат иқтисодиёт уииверситети Ўзбекистон Республикаси

Ташкентский государственньш Банковско-фннансовая академия Международнмй Вестминстерский экономический университет Ресиублики Узбекистан университет в городе Ташкенте

С Т РАТЕГИ Я Д Е Й С Т В И Й

2017-2021

МЕЖДУНАРОДНАЯ НАУЧНО-ПРАКТИЧЕСКАЯ КОНФЕРЕНЦИЯ

«Стратегия действий Ресиублики

гстаоильность, инвестиционнаяактивность иинновационн

■

СБОРНИК НАУЧНБ1Х МАТЕРИАЛОВ И СТАТЕЙ

СЕКЦИЯI

ЛУЕ5ТМ1Н5ТЕК1МТЕКМАТ10МА1 иМ1УЕҒ?51ТУ № ТА5НКЕМТ

Лп ЛссгаИюс! 1пч1|Ц|(10п оГ (Ьс 1/т\сг>!!у оГ\\гс$1т 1П$(сг (ИК)

Ғ Е Ч А К С Е А С А Б Е М У

О Ғ Т Н Е К Е Р Ц В И С О Ғ 117В Е К Т 8 Т А ^

28-29 мая 2018 года

Тошкент давлат иқтисодиёт уииверситети

Ўзбекистон Республикаси Банк молия академияси

Тошкент шаҳридаги халқаро Вестминистер университети

, |Д '0Т1500/У,

Е5ТМ1Н5ТЕК1№ГЕК№ТЮ М1. иМ1УЕР51ТУ № ТА5НКЕМТ

I Ап АссгаИюс! 1п;>й(и(юп оГсЬс С1п1\-сг5>*!у г\\'с$!гтп$1сг (Ц К )

ХАЛҚАРО ИЛМИЙ-АМАЛИЙ АНЖУМАН

ИЛМИИ МАЪРУЗА ВА МАҚОЛАЛАР

ТЎПЛАМИ

I ШУЪБА

2018 йил 28-29 май

www.wc.tseu.uz www.tseu.uz

СЕКЦИЯ I

СТРАТЕГИЯ ДЕЙСТВИЙ ПО ПЯТИ ПРИОРИТЕТНЫМ НАПРАВЛЕНИЯМ

РАЗВИТИЯ РЕСПУБЛИКИ УЗБЕКИСТАН В 2017-2021 ГГ. КАК ПРИМЕР ОТВЕТСТВЕННОЙ

ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОЙ ПОЛИТИКИ

I ШЎЪБА

2017-2021 ЙИЛЛАРДА ЎЗБЕКИСТОН РЕСПУБЛИКАСИНИ РИВОЖЛАНТИРИШНИНГ

БЕШТА УСТУВОР ЙЎНАЛИШИ БЎЙИЧА ҲАРАКАТЛАР СТРАТЕГИЯСИ ДАВЛАТ

СИЁСАТИ МАСЪУЛЛИГИНИНГ НАМУНАСИ СИФАТИДА

www.wc.tseu.uz 3 www.tseu.uz

Мундарижа Содержание Content

Sobirov Abdurasul Abdugafforovich. Measures to enhance the attraction of

foreign investment for the implementation of the objectives of the Strategy for

the Further Development of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021 ............. 7

Inoyatova Sitora Amonovna, Obidjon Khamidov Khafizovich. Current State of

Hotels‟ Websites in Uzbekistan ............................................................................ 12

Цветков Валерий Анатольевич, Valeriy A. Tsvetkov, Зиядуллаев Наби

Саидкаримович, Nabi S. Ziyadullaev, Зоидов Кобилжон Ходжиевич, Kobilzhon

Kh. Zoidov. Modeling the crisis cyclical socio-economic system of the

countries of central asia in conditions of instability ........................................... 18

Isakоv Musохоn Yusupdjanоvich, Sultanоv Baхtiyar Tursinbaеvich. Iqtisоdiyotda

tub tarkibiy o`zgarishlarni davоm ettirish mamlakat raqоbatbardоshligini

ta`minlashning garоvi ........................................................................................... 50

Kasimova Mafirat Sobirovna, Kodirov Nizomjon. Mechanisms of production

management within the framework of the strategy of Uzbekistan .................. 58

Muminova Gulmira Bakhodirovna. Recent trends in the strategic development

of the national economy: opportunities for the development of innovative

marketing applications………………………………….……………………….63

Yadgarov Akram Akbarovich, Qiyomova Qunduz Asrorovna. The role of

agricultural insurance in protecting from diverse risks………………....………..69

Абдураманов Х.Х., Рахматуллаева Шахноза Хамидовна. Ишсизларни касбга

ўқитиш тизимини такомиллаштириш ........................................................... 73

Абдусаломова Нодира Баходировна. 2017-2021 йилларда саноатни

ривожлантириш ва модернизация қилиш Ўзбекистонни

ривожлантириш ҳаракатлар стратегиясининг асосий вазифаларидан

бири сифатида ...................................................................................................... 77

Атаниязова Максуда Балтабаевна. Хорижий мамлакатларнинг меҳнат

бозорини тартибга солиш борасидаги тажрибаларидан фойдаланиш

имкониятлари ...................................................................................................... 82

Бакиева Ирода Акбаровна, Раджабова Назира Искандаровна. Аҳолининг

иш билан бандлигини таъминлашнинг ҳудудий хусусиятлари ................ 88

Бердиев Самариддин Рахматович. Ҳаракатлар стратегиясини амалга

оширишда Ўзбекистонда органик мева-сабзавотлар бозорини ташкил

этишнинг аҳамияти ............................................................................................ 93


Бобаназарова Жамила Холмуродовна, Ахмедов Зохид Собирович.

Ўзбекистонда аѐлларнинг иш билан бандлигини ошириш

имкониятлари ...................................................................................................... 98

Бутабаев Меҳриддин Шахобиддинович. О необходимости принятия

долгосрочных концепций регионального развития .................................. 102

Ганиева Муборак Адиловна, Рузиев Шохрузбек Равшан ўғли. Тарихий-

маданий туризм ва уни ривожлантириш истиқболлари .......................... 106

Зиядуллаев Улугбек Саидкаримович. Стратегические приоритеты

республики Узбекистан в развитии международного экономического

сотрудничества……………………………………………….………………110

Зиѐдуллаева Лола Саидкаримовна. Макроэкономическая стабильность

как важный фактор развития предпринимательства и инновационного

развития Узбекистана ...................................................................................... 115

Дадабаева Рано Акрамовна. Предпосылки формирования и развития

базовых платформ знание-ориентированной цифровой экономики...... 119

Исмаилов Аллаѐр Рашидович. Ўзбекистонда акциядорлик

жамиятларининг инвестицион фаолиятини ривожлантириш йўллари 123

Касымов С.М., Касымов С.С. Применение маркетинговой инновационной

стратегии в системе управления ценообразованием товара на рынке .. 127

Мухаммедов Мурод Мухаммедович. Стратегия действий и перспективы

усиления интеграции Узбекистана в глобальную экономическую

систему ................................................................................................................. 132

Нормуродов Хусан Эшмахматович. Ўзбекистон иқтисодиѐтини

инвестицион ривожлантиришнинг стратегик йўналишлари .................. 137

Расулов Тўлқин Саттарович. Ривожланаѐтган мамлакатларда иқтисодий

хавфсизлик ва рақобатбардошликка эришиш йўналишлари ................. 142

Саидов Муҳаммадали Хакимович, Ашурметова Нигора. Значимость и

эффективность развития человеческого капитала в Узбекистане ......... 148

Салимов Бахтиѐр Таджиевич. Худудлар ялпи махсулотининг ўзгариш

тенденсиялари таҳлили ва устивор йўналишлари .................................... 152

Талипова Н.Т. Социально-экономическая политика Узбекистана на

современном этапе ............................................................................................ 157

Темирханова Муътабар Жураевна. Мамлакатимизда туризм соҳасини

ривожлантиришнинг устувор йўналишлари ва ўзига хос хусусиятлари .. 161


Тоймухамедов Иброхим Рихсибоевич. Проблемы и пути повышения

эффективности деятельности фермерских хозяйств в области

выращивания плодоовощных культур ........................................................ 164

Тошпўлатов Азизбек Шермухаммадович. Ҳаракатлар стретегияси:

ҳудудларнинг иқтисодий ривожланишининг муҳим йўналиши сифатида168

Тўланова Зулфия Аҳмаджоновна. Ўзбекистонда замонавий халқаро савдо

ва дипломатик муносабатларни шакллантиришнинг тарихий

жиҳатлари……………………………………………………………………...174

Хайдаров Ғайратбек Мирзапўлатович. Ўзбекистондаги ижтимоий ва

иқтисодий ўзгаришларда Европа Иттифоқи мамлакатларининг ўрни.180

Хасанов Алишер Наджимиддинович. Международные филиалы

университетов: Форма транснационального образования для перехода

от импорта к экспорту образовательных услуг .......................................... 184

Холмуратов С.Э. Повышение уровня занятости населения республики

Узбекистан .......................................................................................................... 187

Хомитов Комилжон Зоитович. Меҳнат бозорида ижтимоий шериклик

тизимини ривожлантиришда давлатнинг роли .......................................... 193

Шарипов Қувондиқ Бахтиѐрович. Миллий иқтисодиѐт рақобатбардошлиги

даражасини аниқлаш кўрсаткичлари ва уни ошириш йўналишлари .. 198

Шаропова Нафосат Раджабовна. Мактабгача таълим тизимини

ривожлантиришнинг хорижий тажрибалари ва уни Ўзбекистонда

қўллаш имкониятлари ..................................................................................... 203

Шохаъзамий Шохмансур Шохназир ўғли. Совершенствование финансовой

политики, финансово-кредитной системы и финансового рынка в

контексте стратегии действий ........................................................................ 210

Эргашев Уролбек Беркинович. Ўзбекистонда туризм тараққиѐти: муаммо

ва ечимлар .......................................................................................................... 215

Эргашходжаева Шахноза Джасуровна, Солиев Ахмаджон, Фаттахов

Адхамжон Азизович, Юсупов Мухаммадамин. Проблемы использования

теоретико-методологических основ маркетинга в процессе реализации

стратегий действий ........................................................................................... 219

Эргашходжаева Шахноза Джасуровна, Хакимов Зиѐдулла Ахмадович.

Тошкент вилояти саноатини кластерлаш стратегиясини ишлаб чиқиш.. 223

Юлдашев Нуритдин Курбанович, Турсунов Бобир Ортикрмизаевич.

Стратегическое направление развития текстильной промышленности

Узбекистана ........................................................................................................ 230


Юсупов Асомиддин Соатович. СЭЗ в Узбекистане: главные целы, роли в

развитии национальной экономики и повышении экспортного

потенциала страны ........................................................................................... 235

Maksudova D.K., Alimbaeva Sh.A. Effects of globalization on formation of the

economic thinking and culture of students in the educational process .......... 244

Muratova M.N., Mukhamedova M.S. A new approach in teaching English

language in an era of globalization .................................................................... 248

Nazarova B.M. English is a tool of international cooperation in times of

economic globalization………………………………………………………...252

Sultanova D.T. Predominant role of foreign languages in enhancing

competitiveness of the national economy of Uzbekistan.................................. 254

Vakhobova M.A. Structural reforms in Uzbekistan: supporting future-oriented

learning and teaching .......................................................................................... 259

Фарманова Барно Абдукаюмовна. Стратегический рывок Узбекистана:

новый этап динамичного развития ............................................................... 263

Тешабаев Тулкин Зокирович. Олий таълим муассасаларида таҳсил олувчи

ѐшларда етакчилик хусусиятларини тарбиялаш.......................................267

Набиев Элшод Ғаниевич. Қишлоқ хўжалигини модернизациялаш ва

ундаги таркибий ўзгаришлар таҳлили........................................................272

Burkhanov Aktam Usmanovich. Ensuring financial security of the country – the

main factor of economic growth.........................................................................277

Бабаджанова Лола Шопулатовна. Активизация механизмов увеличения

доходов бюджетов территорий–важный аспект стратегии развития

Республики Узбекистан....................................................................................280

Пулатов Д.Х. Государственные закупки в системе здравоохранения

Республики Узбекистан....................................................................................286

Думонов Б.М. Некоторые аспекты развитие химических знаний, умений и

навыков в общеобразовательных школах...................................................292

Пулатов Д.Х. Совершенствование системы внутреннего контроля и

аудита в контексте реформы управления государственными

финансами».........................................................................................................295

Ҳакимов Ҳакимжон Абдулло ўғли. Мамлакатда фискал ва монетар

сиѐсатни мувофиқлаштиришнинг моҳияти ва сабаблари........................300


Sobirov Abdurasul Abdugafforovich,

Candidate of economic sciences, associate professor,

TSUE

MEASURES TO ENHANCE THE ATTRACTION OF FOREIGN INVESTMENT

FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE OBJECTIVES OF THE STRATEGY FOR THE

FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN IN 2017-2021

Uzbekistan needs to attract foreign investment, especially foreign direct investment, as, in the

volumes that they now enter the economy of the country, they are not enough to fully solve all the

tasks for further socio-economic development. In the Strategy of Action for the five priority

development directions of the Republic of Uzbekistan in 2017-2021, approved by the Decree of the

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan Sh. Mirziyoyev, laid the foundation for a large-scale

development of the country in the medium term [1]. This program document of the country defines

a number of tasks, the effective solution of which depends, among other things, on the scale of

attracting foreign investment in the economy and regions of the republic.

The measures taken to reform the economy of the republic and its sectors in general,

structural reforms and the implementation of large-scale investment projects have made it possible

to ensure the growth of the socio-economic development indicators of the republic, to establish the

production of highly liquid products needed to meet the needs of the population, industry,

agriculture, and transport. In the most general form, economic growth means a quantitative and

qualitative change in the results of production and its factors (their productivity). The economic

growth finds its expression in the increase in the country's GDP, and in the scale of its regions -

GRP, in the growth of their economic power. Two interrelated indicators can measure this increase:

the growth over a certain period of real GDP of the republic or GDP growth per capita. Therefore, it

is generally accepted that the indicator reflecting economic growth is the annual rate of GDP

growth in percent in relation to the previous period. This and other macroeconomic indicators that

characterize the development of Uzbekistan's economy in 2005-2017 are shown in Fig.1.

The data shown in Fig. 1 and the calculation made on them perform that the growth rate of the

republic's GDP for this period increased by an average of 7.9% per year. Accordingly, other

indicators characterizing macroeconomic development also increased. Thus, the growth rate of

industrial production in the country increased by 8.6%, agricultural production by 6%, consumer

goods - 13.4%, retail turnover - 14.5%, paid services - 13.9% and fixed investment - 12.7%. In

continuation of this, we note that one of the main factors determining the growth of the economy in

the long term is, of course, the effective use of investment resources. In modern economic realities,

high and stable growth rates are typical for countries with a high saving rate and a significant share

of investment in GDP. Thus, investments are the most dynamic component of GDP. As the world

practice has shown, during periods of economic downturn or immediately before it, the share of

investments in GDP and the rate of their growth usually decline. On the contrary, the indicator of

normalization of the economic situation is a high growth rate of investment, primarily investment in

fixed assets [2, 36].


2004 - 100%; data for 2017 – preliminary

Source: compiled according to State Committee of Statistics for the relevant period

Fig. 1. Growth rates of macroeconomic indicators in Uzbekistan

for 2005-2017 years. Nowadays, in order to ensure a favorable investment climate, Uzbekistan has created and

successfully operates a management investment infrastructure that includes a normative legal field

in attracting foreign investment, taking into account all forms of state support, development

institutions, both in the whole country and at the regional level , a built-up system of interaction

with institutions, mechanisms for removing administrative barriers, investment policy of creating

and operating a free economy (FEZ) and small industrial zones (SIZ), the technology of investment

support and etc.

In recent years, the trend of increasing investment in the fixed capital of the Republic has

been steady. For the period from 2010-2016 years the volume of all investments of the republic

increased in actual prices from 15338,7 billion soums to 49770,6 billion soums or by 3,2 times

(Table 1). It is important to note here that according to the results of 2017 year (according to

preliminary data) there is a significant increase to 60719,2 billion sums. For example, if within 6

years the volume of investments in the fixed capital of the republic increased by an average of

35,243 billion soums per year, only in the last year compared to 2016 year they increased by almost

11 billion sums. Such a positive trend in the growth of all the republic's investments was

accompanied by an improvement in their structure and sources of financing. At the same time, a

noticeable shift has been made towards a reduction in the share of centralized investments and

simultaneously, an increase in the share of non-centralized investments, including enterprises and

the population, foreign direct investment and credits, commercial banks and other borrowed funds.

If in the early 2000s year their ratio of centralized and non-centralized investments of the country

was 29, 2% and 70, 8%, by the end of 2016 it became 21, 1% and 78, 9%.

The largest share in the structure of capital investments last year was made up of investments

from own funds of economic entities (29,5%), whose volume increased by 18,5% compared to the

same period in 2016, which indicates active involvement of enterprises in various programs adopted


in the republic. However, in the year of 2017 there is a decrease in the share of the population's

funds in all capital investments of the country compared to 2016. It shows that there is not a very

favorable situation of insufficient use of savings by individuals in order to transform them into

investment resources necessary for the development of the republic. In essence, the growth of the

population's savings, their social and economic structure and the efficiency of using these resources

in the modern market economy - all this is of fundamental importance for the formation of the most

important proportions of expanded reproduction. It also significantly determines the direction of the

investment process, the scale and structure of supply and demand, affects the cyclical nature of

economic development, including the occurrence of crises. Thus, the insufficient level of domestic

savings strengthens the role of foreign investments in the national economy, including direct

investments, which, along with bank loans, can become almost the main source of investment and

an important tool to improve the competitiveness of the economy of the republic.

Foreign investment is a fairly promising source of financing for investment activities.

Analyzing the situation with attracting foreign investments and FDI to Uzbekistan, according to the

data given in Table. 1, for 2017 (although this is preliminary figures), you can notice that, on the

whole, these are not bad results and even can be said - significant changes. So, in 2017, the total

volume of foreign investments entered the economy of the republic together with loans for 16308,9

billion sums, which accounted for 26,9% of all investments in the fixed capital of the country

(Table 1). We will say that this is the most significant indicator received for the period starting from

2011. In general, over the eight-year period (2010-2017), the volume of foreign investments and

credits in the republic increased by 3,8 times.

The largest volume of foreign investment in the country in 2016 came from countries such as

Russia (3575.6 billion soums), the Republic of Korea (2145.4 billion soums), Great Britain (318.3

billion soums), Switzerland (256,4 billion soums) and Singapore (170.2 billion soums). The share

of these five countries in all foreign investments of the republic was about 61%.

Table 1.

Investment Dynamics of Uzbekistan in 2010-2016

Year Investments

in fixed

assets, total,

billion UZS

From them,

foreign investments and

credits

including foreign direct investment

(FDI)

billion

UZS

share in

investments

in fixed

assets,%

billion

UZS

share of FDI

in

investments

in fixed

assets,%

share of FDI

in foreign

investments

and credits,%

2010 y. 15338,7 4340,8 28,3 3058,7 19,9 70,5

2011 y. 17953,4 3853,8 21,5 3108,6 17,3 80,7

2012 y. 22797,3 4653,3 20,4 3792,3 16,6 81,5

2013 y. 28694,6 5532,7 19,3 4379,1 15,3 79,1

2014 y. 35233,3 6980,1 19,8 5339,1 15,2 76,5

2015 y. 41670,5 8309,5 19,9 6273,1 15,1 75,5

2016 y. 49770,6 10611,4 21,3 7353,7 14,8 69,3

2017 y.* 60719,2 16308,9 26,9 12395,2 20,4 76,0

For 2017 - preliminary data.

Source: compiled according to State Committee on Statistics data for the relevant years.

Long-term investments or FDI attracted to Uzbekistan's economy last year also show

significant results. Practice shows that such investments provide access to the world financial

resources, innovative services and goods that affect the qualitative growth of products demanded by

the market, contribute to the competitiveness of the national economy at the international level,

increase its stable growth, which practically improve the living standards of the inhabitants of the

country. The share of FDI received in 2017 in all investments of the republic was 20,4%, and this is


the most significant indicator for the entire period from 2010 (Table 1). The volume of FDI in 2017

(according to preliminary data), in actual prices increased to 12395,2 billion soums against 7353,7

billion soums in 2016 or by 1,7 times. In our opinion, such a leap in attracting foreign investment,

including FDI, was facilitated by the state policy implemented in the republic to support long-term

investments and create favorable economic conditions for the development of investment activities.

After all, a well-known fact is that the attractiveness of the investment environment is determined,

first of all, by the conditions of the tax, amortization, financial and credit policy of the state and

other aspects. At the same time, for potential foreign investors, carrying out both short-term and

long-term investments, not only the conditions in force at a given moment, but also the expected

prospects for their development, the degree of stability of the political and economic situation in the

country and other factors are important. To all this in Uzbekistan, special and close attention is paid

by the state and government.

The inflow of FDI into the economy of the country contributes to an increase in the number of

economic entities that are organized in the form of enterprises with foreign investments, including

joint ventures. In total in the republic, as of the beginning of 2018, operating enterprises with

foreign capital participation are 5517 units against 5008 units for 2016. The share of operating

enterprises with foreign investments in the total number of all enterprises of the republic in 2010-

2016 amounted to no more than 1,7-1,8%. The bulk of such enterprises operate in industry and

trade, and the smallest share is observed in health care, provision of social services, information and

communication. The share of employed in enterprises with foreign investment on a republican scale

is insignificant and averaged 1.3-1.4%.

The introduction of such new forms of attracting foreign capital into the country as the FEZ

and the SIZ are among the priority directions of state policy and important strategic tasks of

economic development. In 1996, the law of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On Free Economic Zones"

was adopted, which was a very progressive normative document presupposing a practical

liberalization of investors' activity in the territory of the zones. The epoch of creation of FEZ began

in the republic much later, with the organization in 2008 of FIEZ ―Navoi‖, ―Angren‖ (2012) and

Djizakh (2013), whose activities have shown their effectiveness in implementing projects for the

organization production of various types of products. These include the production of mobile

phones, car wires, heating boilers, base oils, technical silicon, LED lamps, ceramic granite tiles,

solar collectors, electrical household appliances, carpet products, etc. The previously created SEZ

operated quite successfully, but they were still very local segments of the Uzbek economy, which is

evident at least by the volume of attracted investments.

The Strategy of Action on the five priority development directions of the Republic of

Uzbekistan in 2017-2021 outlines a number of tasks to strengthen macroeconomic stability, actively

attracting in the economy and investment regions, especially foreign ones, the creation of favorable

conditions for the development of private entrepreneurship on the basis of privatized state facilities,

social and economic development of districts and cities. Important in this direction is the ongoing

work to improve the efficiency of free economic zones, technology parks and small industrial

zones, the organization of new similar structures. This contributed to the creation in the country in

2017 and early 2018, another 13 free economic zones. Thus, to date, there are 16 FEZs on the

territory of the republic. President of the country Sh. Mirziyoyev at the meeting devoted to the

analysis of the effectiveness of the FEZ, noted as shortcomings in the work of the SEZ, which

negatively affect the development of the economy, the process of attracting investments, and the

positive results of the operation of the FEZ. For example, last year in the free economic zone

"Navoi", "Angren", "Djizakh", "Urgut", "Gijduvan", "Kokand" and "Khazarasp" 62 projects

totaling $ 486 million were realized, more than 4,6 thousand worker places were created [4].

For all investors and economic operators of the FEZ, an extensive system of privileges and

pLiterature:s is applied and special tax, customs and currency regimes are operate. Privileges are

granted for a period from 3 to 10 years, depending on the volume of investments made, including

the equivalent: from 300 thousand US dollars to 3 million US dollars - for a period for 3 years; from

$ 3 million to $ 5 million - for a period for 5 years; from $ 5 million to $ 10 million - for a period


for 7 years; from 10 million US dollars and above - for a period for 10 years, with application of the

income tax rate and single tax payment for the next 5 years at a rate of 50% below the current rates.

Thus, the measures introduced in Uzbekistan, both to increase the attraction of foreign investment,

and to support the investors working in the country, most fully and effectively reflect the efforts that

the state is making to increase the flow of attracted funds.

It should be noted that the Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. PP-3356

of 25.10.2017 "On Additional Measures to Improve the Efficiency of Free Economic Zones and

Small Industrial Zones" defines measures for SEZs that radically changed the current management

system and organization of activities. In fact, introduced a completely new system. It provides for

the transformation of the existing territorial commissions into administrative councils, which will

resolve all the necessary issues related to the organization of the work of the FEZ. Administrative

councils are given the right to dispose of land plots throughout the territory on which FEZ and SIZ

are established, including vacant, idle state-owned facilities and free land plots. Production facilities

located in such zones are located, first of all, on the basis of idle, empty buildings, structures and

uncompleted construction of facilities and territories that have a failed engineering infrastructure.

The Republican Council for the Coordination of the Activities of Administrative Boards of

Free Economic Zones and Small Industrial Zones is now responsible for the overall decision-

making strategy and the development of the policy vector of the FEZ. This is due to the fact that

such decisions of the SIZ from individual components of the national economy are turning into its

important, and almost one of its main parts. In fact, functioning SIZs in different regions should

form a powerful and promising production complex aimed at further attracting foreign investments

and developing the economy of the republic.

World practice has shown that small business is effective only when it relies on real support

from the state. The coverage of benefits and incentives for residents of the SIZ is pervasive. In the

republic, they began to be created as early as in 2014 with the adoption of the Resolution of the

President of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On Additional Measures for the Realization of Objects of

State Ownership to Small Business and Private Entrepreneurs". Since then, another mechanism has

been implemented and the opportunity to tap unused areas and empty buildings that are in state

ownership through their transfer to entrepreneurs on a long-term lease.

In the republic, the organization of SIZ on the basis of empty enterprises and unoccupied

territories has shown its success. The following figures show this. At the end of 2017, the number

of SIZs in the country reached 96. 1021 projects with a total cost of 535 billion soums were realized

in the territories of the SIZ, new enterprises with more than 9,6 thousand work places were created.

Within the framework of projects, products of light, chemical, food industry, electrical engineering,

modern building materials, furniture and other products are in demand not only on the domestic

market but also on the foreign market.

As for the FEZ, a system of benefits is applied to the SIZ participants. The mechanism for

granting leases and benefits to entrepreneurs SIZ is designed in such a way that they can organize

their business without excessive financial and other costs. So after acquaintance with the premises

provided for rent between the entrepreneur, the Lease Center and the administration of the small

industrial zone, a tripartite lease agreement is concluded. Provided that the entrepreneur has a ready

business plan that meets the criteria for investment and export obligations, he can become a resident

within 2-3 weeks. In the case of assistance in ensuring production of all necessary communications.

In addition, for enterprises located in small industrial zones the following favorable financial

conditions have been created: a) the rent is set at a minimum level without the use of additional

coefficients. The cost of renting one square meter is 3,5-3,8 thousand soums per year; b) the

tenancy period is ten years, and can be extended again for this period when all agreements are

implemented and taxes and other payments are paid promptly; c) simplified customs and tax

regimes for residents. They are exempt from tax payments for two years with an investment of at

least three thousand times the minimum wage. These benefits are extended for an additional two

years when selling at least 30 percent of the products abroad. Entrepreneurs can also get preferential

loans, and the collateral part can provide a guarantee fund of small industrial zones with a level of


localization of products of enterprises of at least 60 percent and exports of not less than 10 percent

of the total volume of products produced during the year.

In conclusion, we note that, as international experience shows, relatively little attention is paid

to the investment policy of foreign countries in simplifying investment procedures. For example,

among 173 investment promotion and simplification measures introduced in 2010-2015 around the

world, investment simplification measures were only a small part. [3] Simplification of investment

procedures is a relief for investors to place or expand their investments. They can include both

increasing the transparency of information available to investors, and working to improve the

efficiency and effectiveness of administrative procedures for investors, etc. Thus, on the one hand,

having a large system of incentives for foreign investments and investors (tax incentives and

incentives), and on the other - taking into account the current trend in the world for simplifying

investments, Uzbekistan should focus on observing a certain balance between these two processes.

Literature:

1. Decree of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan of 07.02.2017 DP-4947 "On the

strategy of actions for the further development of the Republic of Uzbekistan".

2. Investments: a textbook for universities / edited by L.I. Yuzvovich, S.A. Degtyareva, E.G.

Knyazevoy. - Ekaterinburg: Ural University Publishing House, 2016. - 543 p.

3. UNCTAD. World Investment Report 2016.UN.Geneva, 2016.-63 p.

4. Materials of the meeting devoted to the analysis of the efficiency of free economic zones in

Uzbekistan. http://uzbekistan24.uz/en/novosti/15/3025/.

Inoyatova Sitora Amonovna,

PhD Researcher,

TSEU,

Dr. Obidjon Khamidov Khafizovich,

PhD Vice-Rector,

TSEU

CURRENT STATE OF HOTELS‟ WEBSITES IN UZBEKISTAN

Uzbekistan is paying great attention towards the development of the tourism industry.

Evidence of this is Uzbekistan‘s Development Strategy for 2017-2021. This research is going to

follow section 3.2 of the strategy which reads: ―Improving the competitiveness of the economy

through deepening of structural reforms, modernization and diversification of its leading

industries‖ with the sub-category of ―achieving accelerated development of the tourism industry,

enhancing its role and contribution to the economy, diversification and improving the quality of

tourist services, upgrading of tourism infrastructure”.1

There has been a number of actions towards upgrading the tourism infrastructure and

development of the tourism industry in Uzbekistan. It is important to note, that with the aim of

service improvement, Goskomtourism has developed two governmental standards for the

hotels and guesthouses.2

It has been planned to arrange annual forum for investors in the tourism industry in

Uzbekistan. Road maps have been developed with the aim of increasing investment in tourism

industry; there will be government stimulation for building of hotels, theme parks, and other similar

tourist destinations.3Uzbekistan also started working on development of shopping tourism, which

will be aimed mostly on shopping areas rather than historical heritage.4It is also planned to launch

1The Tashkent Times, 2017

2Spot, 2018

3Kommersant.uz, 2018

4НовостиУзбекистана, 2017

http://uzbekistan24.uz/en/novosti/15/3025/


the first universal travel support (phone number which soon will be transferred into 4 digits

number) for tourists in the Republic of Uzbekistan through which tourists can get travelers‘

support and information about their trip.5

Since one of the main elements of the tourism industry are tourists, one of the ways for them

to obtain information about our country would be the hotels‘ websites through which they obtain

preliminary information about pricing, reservations options, and so on. Quality of website can

positively impact the hotels‘ sales, since it affects the decision-making process of the tourists to

reserve the hotel. So far, there is limited information about similar research especially in

Uzbekistan. Therefore, current condition of the websites of the hotels of Uzbekistan shall be

analyzed and recommendations shall be provided for future improvement and considerations by the

hotels.

According to Holiday Habits Report (2017)6, eighty-three (83%) percent of the residents of

the United Kingdom have booked their holiday using online services. Seventy (70%) percent of

overseas tourists visiting Ireland reserved their hotel online.7

There has been a number of research studies conducted to investigate the relationship between

website and its effectiveness on sales and promotion.8It has been found that customers‘ decision to

book a hotel is dependent on the appearance of the website especially, which include the photos,

and then theme, color scheme, ease of use.9In another study, it has been revealed that there is a

positive correlation between the quality of economy hotel corporate websites in China and online

booking intention by the consumers.10

Which provides some arguments for the positive effects of

maintaining the corporate website. It is interesting to note that in China, economy hotel industry is

thriving to increase online direct sales rather than through the third-party companies which are

charging high commissions.11

Even though there are hotels which use the full potential of Internet and upgrade and improve

their websites for being more user-friendly, modern, contain more quality information, there are still

hotels which neglect the importance of websites as being main tool for communicating with

customers; they have big gaps in handling online booking inquiries through their websites namely

by email, online booking forms, etc.12

In a study of 111 hotels in Germаny, Switzerlаnd and Austria, it has been revealed that hotels

are not fully using all tools to market themselves through corporate websites (e.g. lack of various

cоntact information, poor quality responses, lack of virtual tours and 360‘ degrees view of rooms,

nоn-availability of hotel information online, which is a demonstration of poor online inquiries

handling.13

Around 30% of hotels and 20% of tоurism offices left emails from potential customers

without a response.14

It has also been found that difficult to use hotel websites negatively affеct

оnline booking and ‗revisit intentions‘.15

Uzbekistan‘s hotels website evaluation analysis shall be conducted, including personal

evaluation of the researchers, and open to public online statistics resources using qualitative

method. The study of hotels‘ websites shall take place during January 2018 to March 2018 time

frame. The data shall be collected from the websites of Gоlden Pages (2018), Yellоw Pages

Uzbekistan (2018), the State Cоmmittee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (2018) as well

as hotels‘ websites shall be investigated separately. The оbjective of the study is to investigate the

current state of Uzbekistan‘s hotels websites.

5UzbekistanToday, 2018

6Holiday Habits Report, 2017

7Failte Ireland National Tourism Development Authority, 2013

8Chan and Law, 2006, cited in Inversini and Masiero, 2014

9Phelan et al., 2011

10Li et al., 2017

11Li et al., 2017

12Gardini, 2015

13Gardini, 2015

14SеrviceQualita t Niеdersachsen, 2006, cited in Gardini, 2015

15Essawy, 2006, cited in Dickinger and Mazanec, 2008


According to the State Cоmmittee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (2017)16

, there

are around 750 hotels and similar accommodations in Uzbekistan as of 2016. Based on Yellow

Pages Uzbekistan (2018)17

, there are 271 hotels and similar accommodations and 276 based on

Golden Pages (2018)18

. After cоllection and combination of data from Gоlden Pages and Yellоw

Pages Uzbekistan, the sample size has narrowed down to 283 hotels. Criteria for evaluation

included: presence of hоtels‘ website; presence of English language selection option; user-friendly

(modern) website design; and distribution of hotels across the cities of the country. The analysis are

presented as follows:

1.1 presence& working website Analysis revealed that out of 283 hоtels, only 151 (53%) do have the website and 132 (47%)

do not have their own website (SeeFig.1.).

Fig.1. Presence of Website Fig.2. Working Website

Out of 151 hotels with their own corporate websites, 110 (72.8%) hotels' websites are

working, and 41 (27.2%) are not working (under reconstruction or wrong domain)(SeeFig.2.). Out

of total 283 sampled hotels, only 39% have been working websites.

1.2 user-friendly (modern) website design layout Out of 110 working websites slightly more than half i.e. 60 (55%) hotels have user-friendly

(‗modern‘) type of website design, with (50) 45% remained to be less user-friendly design layout.

Out of total sampled 283 hotels, 21% of hotels‘ corporate websites have user-friendly layout (See

Fig.3.).

Fig.3. Percentage of User-friendly (modern) Website Design Layout

1.3 websites’ English language version

Websites have also been evaluated on a presence of English language options and versions.

Thus, the findings reveal, that out of 110 working corporate websites, 11 websites (10%) do not

16

State Cоmmittee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics, 2017 17

YellowPagesUzbekistan, 2018 18

GoldenPages, 2018

Yes 53%

No 47%

Presence of Website

Yes No

Yes 73%

No 27%

Working Website

Modern

Website

Design

0%

modern

55%

old-fashioned

45%

Percentage of User-Friendly Website Design Layout


have English language selection option, while 99 (90%) websites do have an English language

option and version of their website. However, out of total sampled 283 hotels, only 99 hotels (35%)

have English language version of the website (See Fig.4.).

Fig.4. Presence of English Language Option in Website

1.4 distribution of hotels across cities of the country When analyzing the number of hotels in different cities of the country, there has been

nineteen (19) cities identified. Top three (3) of the cities demonstrate majority of hotels‘ distribution

accounting for 222 (78%) hotels; namely (1) Tashkent with 109 hotels, (2) Bukhara with 61 hotels

and (3) Samarkand with 52 hotels (See Fig.5.).Hotels in top three cities of the country with

composition of both good website and working online booking service has been identified as

follows:

- In Tashkent out of 109 hotels there are 35 (32.1%) hotels; - In Bukhara out of 61 hotels there are 12 (19.6%) hotels; - In Samarkand out of 52 hotels there are 19 (36.5%) hotels. Which tells us, those in top three cities of the country with the majority of hotel distribution,

on average, about 29% of hotels do have both good interactive corporate website with working

online booking service.

Fig.5.Number/Distribution of Hоtels Across Cities of Uzbekistan

[ИМЯ

КАТЕГОРИИ]

[ПРОЦЕНТ]

English

90%

Presence of English Language Option in Website

TASHKENT

BUKHARA

SAMARKAN

D

KHOREZM

NAVOI

NAMANGAN

DZHIZAK

FERGANA

KARSHI

TERMEZ

KHIVAANDIZHAN

SIRDARYA

MARGILAN

YUKORICHIRCHIK

ANGREN

REPUBLICOF

KARAKALPAKSTAN

SHAKHRISA

BZ

CHIRCHIK

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19

NO. OF HOTELS 109 61 52 16 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

Cumulative % 38,52%60,07%78,45%84,10%86,57%88,69%90,46%92,23%93,99%95,41%96,47%97,17%97,88%98,23%98,59%98,94%99,29%99,65% 100,00

Marker 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80% 80%

0,00%

20,00%

40,00%

60,00%

80,00%

100,00%

120,00%

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

No

. o

f H

ote

ls

Number of Hоtels In Each City


Our findings reveal that оut of 750 hotels and similar accommodations, information about

only 283 hotels have been found through online resources. Out of 283 sampled hotels, only 39%

have the working corporate website and 27% of websites offer a working online booking function

for the travelers; 21% have user-friendly website design; 35% have English language version of the

website. It has alsо been fоund that top three cities with the majority of hotels distributiоn

accоunting for 78%, fall intо Tashkent (109 hotels), Bukhara (61) and Samarkand (52 hotels).

Here are the major recommendations for the hotels of Uzbekistan:

(1) All of the hotels have to invest into good quality interactive corporate website with high quality photographs;

(2) Website need to have basic ‗must have‘ features such as good quality information about hotels‘ services along with the updated contact information;

(3) Virtual website tours and 360‘ degrees view of rooms and hotel is to be present along with the updated brochure information about hotel services which is updated and improved on a

continuous basis;

(4) English language version of the website needs to be present in the hotels‘ corporate website;

(5) ‗Book Now‘ option is to be present on the home page of the hotel with the reservation dates available for traveler, and most importantly it needs to be working well;

(6) Different types of inquiries options have to be available to travelers such as phone, email, online booking form, fax, online assistant and so on, which need to be working appropriately and

what is more importantly handled or answered accordingly.

(7) Consider offering mobile version of their corporate website by simplifying the online booking process and converting it into sales;

(8) Consider investing in developing hotels‘ search engine marketing strategy, so that website can easily be found in search engines such as Google, for example;

(9) Consider updating hotels‘ contact information not only on the corporate website but in the OTAs that hotel is registered with and in the Golden Pages, and Yellow Pages Uzbekistan.

Among the limitations of the study are: the sample of analyzed websites focused only on the

country of Uzbekistan, therefore generalizability of findings can be limited; also information about

the analyzed sample of hotels has been obtained only from websites listed in the Golden Pages and

Yellow Pages Uzbekistan online, this could lead to subjective judgement.

The findings of this study, not only provide an information about the current state of hotels‘

website in Uzbekistan, but also can help hoteliers to improve and develop their websites which will

bring them to a next level of being easily found online and reached by the tourists all over the

world, which in turn can help them boost their sales, which in long run, can increase the number of

tourists travelling to Uzbekistan.

Literature:

1) The Tashkent Times (2017) Uzbekistan's Development Strategy for 2017-2021 has been adopted following public consultation [Online]. Available at:http://tashkenttimes.uz/national/541-

uzbekistan-s-development-strategy-for-2017-2021-has-been-adopted-following- [Accessed: 20

March 2018].

2) Spot (2018) В Узбекистане пересмотрят классификацию гостиниц {Online} https://www.spot.uz/ru/2018/01/09/hotels/[Accessed: 20 March 2018].

3) Kommersant.uz (2018) В Узбекистане планируют ежегодно проводить Форум инвесторов в туриндустрию [Online]http://kommersant.uz/news/v-uzbekistane-planiruyut-

ezhegodno-provodit-forum-investorov-v-turindustriyu[Accessed: 20 March 2018].

4) Новости Узбекистана (2018) Узбекистан начнѐт развивать шопинг-туризм [Online] 21 November 2017https://nuz.uz/sobytiya/27948-uzbekistan-nachnet-razvivat-shoping-

turizm.html[Accessed: 20 March 2018].

5) Uzbekistan Today (2018) Goskomturizm created a service for direct information support for travelers in Uzbekistan [Online] 5 January 2018http://www.ut.uz/en/tourism/goskomturizm-

http://tashkenttimes.uz/national/541-uzbekistan-s-development-strategy-for-2017-2021-has-been-adopted-following-http://tashkenttimes.uz/national/541-uzbekistan-s-development-strategy-for-2017-2021-has-been-adopted-following-https://www.spot.uz/ru/2018/01/09/hotels/http://kommersant.uz/news/v-uzbekistane-planiruyut-ezhegodno-provodit-forum-investorov-v-turindustriyuhttp://kommersant.uz/news/v-uzbekistane-planiruyut-ezhegodno-provodit-forum-investorov-v-turindustriyuhttps://nuz.uz/sobytiya/27948-uzbekistan-nachnet-razvivat-shoping-turizm.htmlhttps://nuz.uz/sobytiya/27948-uzbekistan-nachnet-razvivat-shoping-turizm.htmlhttp://www.ut.uz/en/tourism/goskomturizm-created-a-service-for-direct-information-support-for-travelers-in-uzbekistan/


created-a-service-for-direct-information-support-for-travelers-in-uzbekistan/[Accessed: 20

March 2018].

6) ABTA Holiday Habits Report (2017) [Online]. Available at: https://abta.com/assets/uploads/general/Holiday_Habits_Report_2017.pdf [Accessed on 10

February 2018].

7) Failte Ireland National Tourism Development Authority (2013) Tourism Facts 2012. [Online]. Available at: http://www.failteireland.ie/FailteIreland/media/WebsiteStructure/

Documents/3Research_Insights/3_General_SurveysReports/Tourism_Facts_2012.pdf?ext=.pdf

[Accessed on 10 February 2018].

8) Chan, S. and Law, R. (2006), ‗Automatic website evaluations: the case of hotels in Hong Kong‘, Information Technology & Tourism, Vol. 8 Nos 3-4, pp. 255-269. Cited in Alessandro

Inversini, Lorenzo Masiero, (2014) ‗Selling rooms online: the use of social media and online travel

agents‘, International Journal of Contemporary Hospitality Management, Vol. 26 Issue: 2, pp.272-

292, Available at: http://dx.doi.org/10.1108/IJCHM-03-2013-0140 [Accessed on: 15 March, 2018].

9) Kelly Virginia Phelan, NatasaChristodoulidou, Cary C. Countryman, Leonard J. Kistner, (2011) "To book or not to book: the role of hotel web site heuristics". Journal of Services

Marketing, Vol. 25 Issue: 2, pp.134-148, Available at: https://doi.org/10.1108/08876041111119859

Accessed on: 15 March, 2018].

10) Li Li, Maojuan Peng, Nan Jiang, Rob Law (2017) ‗An empirical study on the influence of economy hotel website quality on online booking intentions‘ International Journal Of Hospitality

Management [Online. 27 January 2017. Available

athttps://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0278431917300233 : [Accessed on 15 March,

2018].

11) Marco A. Gardini (2015) ‗A Study on the Online Sales Efficiency of Upscale and Luxury Hotels in Germany, Switzerland and Austria‘ In Advances in Hospitality and Leisure. [Online]: 12

Mar 2015; 173-192.Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1745-3542(06)03010-4 [Accessed on 10

March 2018].

12) ServiceQualitat Niedersachsen (2006). Eine Best and saufnahme der Service Qualitat Touristischer Leistungstrager in Niedersachsen. Hannover: Tourismus Marketing Niedersachsen

GmbH. Cited in Marco A. Gardini (2015), ‗A Study on the Online Sales Efficiency of Upscale and

Luxury Hotels in Germany, Switzerland and Austria‘ In Advances in Hospitality and Leisure.

[Online]: 12 Mar 2015; 173-192. Available at: https://doi.org/10.1016/S1745-3542(06)03010-4

[Accessed: 15 January, 2018].

13) Essawy, M. (2006) Testing the Usability of Hotel Websites: The Springboard for Customer Relationship Building. Information Technology & Tourism 8(1): 47–70. Cited in

Dickinger A., Mazanec J. (2008) Consumers‘ Preferred Criteria for Hotel Online Booking. In:

O‘Connor P., Höpken W., Gretzel U. (eds) Information and Communication Technologies in

Tourism 2008. Springer, Vienna [Online]. Available at:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-211-

77280-5_22 [Accessed: 15 February, 2018].

14) The State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics (2017) Main Indicators of Recreation and Tourism Development in the Republic of Uzbekistan. Available at:

https://stat.uz/en/435-analiticheskie-materialy-en1/2062-main-indicators-of-recreation-and-tourism-

development-in-the-republic-of-uzbekistan [Accessed: 15 January 2018].

15) Yellow Pages Uzbekistan (2018) Hotels in Uzbekistan: List of hotels of Uzbekistan, their

addresses, phone numbers, contacts. Available at: https://en.yellowpages.uz/rubric/hotels

[Accessed: 10 January 2018].

16) Golden Pages (2018) Hotels in Uzbekistan. Available at:

https://www.goldenpages.uz/en/rubrics/?Id=1089Acessed: 10 January 2018.

http://www.ut.uz/en/tourism/goskomturizm-created-a-service-for-direct-information-support-for-travelers-in-uzbekistan/https://abta.com/assets/uploads/general/Holiday_Habits_Report_2017.pdfhttp://www.failteireland.ie/FailteIreland/media/WebsiteStructure/%20Documents/3Research_Insights/3_General_SurveysReports/Tourism_Facts_2012.pdf?ext=.pdfhttp://www.failteireland.ie/FailteIreland/media/WebsiteStructure/%20Documents/3Research_Insights/3_General_SurveysReports/Tourism_Facts_2012.pdf?ext=.pdfhttps://www.emeraldinsight.com/author/Virginia+Phelan%2C+Kellyhttps://www.emeraldinsight.com/author/Christodoulidou%2C+Natasahttps://www.emeraldinsight.com/author/Countryman%2C+Cary+Chttps://www.emeraldinsight.com/author/Kistner%2C+Leonard+Jhttps://doi.org/10.1108/08876041111119859https://doi.org/10.1016/S1745-3542(06)03010-4https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-211-77280-5_22https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-211-77280-5_22https://stat.uz/en/435-analiticheskie-materialy-en1/2062-main-indicators-of-recreation-and-tourism-development-in-the-republic-of-uzbekistanhttps://stat.uz/en/435-analiticheskie-materialy-en1/2062-main-indicators-of-recreation-and-tourism-development-in-the-republic-of-uzbekistanhttps://en.yellowpages.uz/rubric/hotelshttps://www.goldenpages.uz/en/rubrics/?Id=1089


Цветков Валерий Анатольевич

Директор Института проблем рынка Российской академии наук

(Москва), член-корреспондент РАН, доктор экономических наук, профессор

117418, Москва, Нахимовский пр., д. 47

Valeriy A. Tsvetkov

Market Economy Institute of Russian Academy of Sciences

Nakhimovsky Ave 47, Moscow, Russian Federation, 117418

Зиядуллаев Наби Саидкаримович

Главный научный сотрудник Института проблем рынка Российской

академии наук (Москва), доктор экономических наук, профессор


Nabi S. Ziyadullaev



Зоидов Кобилжон Ходжиевич

заведующий лабораторией Института проблем рынка Российской

академии наук (Москва), кандидат физико-математических наук, доцент


Kobilzhon Kh. Zoidov



MODELING THE CRISIS CYCLICAL SOCIO-ECONOMIC SYSTEM OF THE

COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL ASIA IN CONDITIONS OF INSTABILITY19

МОДЕЛИРОВАНИЕ КРИЗИСНОЙ ЦИКЛИЧЕСКОЙ СОЦИАЛЬНО-

ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЙ СИСТЕМЫ СТРАН ЦЕНТРАЛЬНОЙ АЗИИ В УСЛОВИЯХ

НЕСТАБИЛЬНОСТИ20

The work is devoted to the macroeconomic description of the main development trends and

modeling the cyclicity of the evolution of transformational crises economic systems of Central Asian

countries in conditions of integration and global instability. In the process of research methods of

evolutionary-institutional theory, econometric modeling and analytical evaluation were used. The

retrospective analysis of the cyclical fluctuations in the socioeconomic dynamics of the Central

Asian countries was carried out in the period of 1991-2016. The study shows that, while

maintaining the existing structure of the economy, the way out of the transformational crisis cycle

can be associated only with the growth of the world economy, which evidently, will be followed by

the growth of consumer demand for the main exports of the national economy. There is no strong

banking and financial system, which is resistant to the manifestations of the world financial cyclical

crisis. The unjustified level of liberalization of banking institutions, integration into various

international institutions, and the attraction of doubtful foreign investments at any cost, led to the

bankruptcy of the financial system. The consequence of blind transplantation of market institutions

of management was the loss of state acyclic regulation of the economy, especially with regard to

solving social problems and the medium-long-term strategy of socio-economic cyclical development

of their countries. The scientifically grounded proposals on the improvement of methods for

regulating cyclical fluctuations of macroeconomic dynamics, given the conditions of instability, the

establishment of order, the innovative way of development and modernization of the economy have

been formed. The results of the study can be used by the authorities of Russia and the countries of

19

The research was carried out at the expense of a grant from the Russian Science Foundation (Project No. 16-18-

10149). The research was carried out in the Institute of Market Problems of the Russian Academy of Sciences. 20

Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда (проект №16-18-10149). Исследование

выполнено в Институте проблем рынка Российской академии наук.


Central Asia to eliminate existing problems in the development of cyclical dynamics of the socio-

economic system. The developed proposals and mechanisms for effective regulation of the main

problems in the development of cyclical dynamics of the social and economic system are in demand

for preserving and strengthening the competitive advantages of national economies and the CIS as

a whole.

Key words: The Central Asian countries, modeling, transformation processes, economic

evolution, cyclical processes, economic crises, innovation, economic modernization.

Introduction

The transition of the countries of Central Asia (CA) to the creation of a modern market

economy was accompanied by an unprecedented economic crisis in the history of its destructive

power, which took on a systemic character and was named in the economic science as the crisis of

transformation, or the transformation crisis. The crisis shook the very foundations of economic,

political, social and cultural life, struck family relations, the moral foundations of society, and left

an imprint on the personal relationships of people. A burst of crime, corruption, a sharp drop in

production, the degradation of many branches of science, the threatening growth of poverty and

social stratification, the difficult economic situation of entire regions of Central Asia are such

manifestations of this crisis in the most diverse spheres and at various levels of functioning of the

economic and social mechanism [6].

The experience of the development of the world economic science shows that, to a very large

extent, this science was a theory of crises that has progressed not because of periods of prosperity,

phases of revival and upsurge, but namely under the influence of the need to explain what crisis

states for and finding the ways of overcoming and preventing it.

The evolution of economic theory itself is largely a process of theorists responding to crisis

phenomena, their response to the challenges of the history of the economy, which questioned the

very existence of this or that economic system and the civilization based upon it. And this is not

accidental. After all, any economic development is, above all, overcoming the crisis processes that

are generated by a given economic system. The crisis is not only a temporarily bad, critical, morbid

state of the economic system, it is also a way to rid it of non-viable, obsolete, polluting formations

and layers, and most importantly, it is the unmanifested, "shadowy", negative side of any positive

development.

If the economic theory of a market economy grows to a significant degree as a theory of

cyclical and other crisis conditions, then the economic theory of the transitional economy can be

developed as a theory of the transformation crisis. The way out of the transformation crisis is the

main problem of the transition economy. Overcoming the transformational crisis marks the

overcoming of regularities characteristic to the transition economy, its transformation into an

effective market economy [5-14].

In the period of 1991-2016 Central Asian countries have gone a long way in the area of

institutional and structural transformation. In CA countries, the process of privatization of state

property was carried out, the main institutions of the market model of the economy were formed,

methods of fiscal, monetary and currency regulations and other instruments of market functioning

were introduced and mastered [1-6].

Owning 1% of the territory and 3% of the population on the planet, the republics of Central

Asia have 3% of the world's reserves of petroleum products and 7% of natural gas. According to

confirmed data on some natural resources, for example: Kazakhstan holds the 8th place in the world

for coal reserves; Turkmenistan holds the 11th place in terms of gas reserves, and Uzbekistan - the

14th place; On uranium reserves, Kazakhstan ranks second, and Uzbekistan - 9th in the world;

Uzbekistan occupies the 4th place in the world in terms of gold reserves. Besides, the region is

divided into water-rich countries (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) and dependent on them in the supply

of water are Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. If Kyrgyzstan controls the Syr Darya river

basin, Tajikistan regulates the Amu Darya. In terms of water supply, Tajikistan ranks third in the

world and second in the CIS after Russia. The total annual potential hydropower resources in the


republic are about 600 billion kWh. In addition, Tajikistan has significant freshwater reserves in

glaciers (over 60% of Central Asia's reserves).

After a long period of slow growth over the past few years and up to the present, the region

has been focusing on economic recovery. According to the CIS Statistical Committee, Central Asia

showed the highest GDP growth of 12% in 2004, the average annual growth during 2000-2008. was

8%. Growth was stimulated by high prices for raw materials, especially oil and natural gas,

increased investment improved macroeconomic management and infrastructure development. The

average regional inflation was 6.9% in 2009 [1].

The global financial and debt cycle crisis, which began in the second half of 2008, had a

strong impact on the Central Asian countries. Depending on the level of development of financial

markets, the consequences of cyclical crises for the Central Asian countries were different. The

largest country in Central Asia was hit hardest: in Kazakhstan, a cyclical crisis began on the

securities market, then the crisis spread to the entire banking sector and to the real sector of the

economy. Tighter conditions for external lending led to a decrease in the volume of loans granted

and a significant increase in overdue loans in most of the Central Asian countries. At the same time,

cyclical crisis phenomena were also manifested in the sphere of public finances, where the

reduction of budget revenues led to the fact that budgets in most countries during this period were

in short supply. In the real sector of the economy, the number of unprofitable enterprises has

increased in almost all countries [13-15, 18].

By the end of 2010, the gradual recovery of the financial sector of the economy was

accompanied by an increase in budget revenues, an increase in the monetization of the economy, a

revival of the credit market, a reduction in overdue loans and the gradual strengthening of the

national currency. Improvement of the financial situation of the real sector of the economy of the

Central Asian countries resulted in an increase in their profits and a reduction in the number of

unprofitable enterprises. However, during the period of the cyclical crisis, the economic positions of

Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan began to strengthen [15].

As shown in [13-14, 18], the countries of Central Asia differ greatly in the nature and depth of

the carried economic reforms. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have made the most progress in

implementing market reforms. At the same time, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are implementing a

gradual market transformation and are characterized by high centralization of power in the

economic sphere.

In this regard, the timely analysis and regulation of cyclical fluctuations in social and

economic dynamics, especially in the conditions of the downtrend phase of Kondratyev's long wave

(1998-2022), is one of the most important tasks of the state policy of the Central Asian countries.

The long transformational cyclical crisis that swept the Central Asian economic space in 1992-

1997, the disequilibrium of growth rates after the Russian default in 1998, the global financial and

debt economic cyclical crisis in 2008-2009 and cyclical development in conditions of instability, a

fall in prices for raw materials, sanctions and the establishment of order make the solution of this

problem not only important, but also vitally necessary.

Thus, the main goal of the present research is to systematically study the problem of

analyzing and forecasting the socioeconomic cyclical dynamics of Central Asian countries and

developing scientifically sound proposals for improving the ways of regulating cyclical fluctuations

in conditions of instability, establishing order, innovative ways of development and modernizing

the economy.

1. Modeling of the crisis cyclical dynamics of the evolution of the social and economic system

of Kazakhstan

Verification of macroeconomic dependencies of Kazakhstan. The economy of Kazakhstan has

a pronounced raw material character. According to some experts, there is a certain correlation

between steady economic growth in Kazakhstan and its raw materials orientation. It should be noted

that the development of the economy is cyclical, accompanied by ups and downs, crises - long or


short, destructive and less painful, universal, local, structural. The nature of economic cycles and

crises has been and remains the focus of numerous and many years of research.

From 1991 to 1998, the economy of Kazakhstan experienced a deep cyclical decline. All

major macroeconomic parameters of Kazakhstan sharply decreased from the level of 1991. Since

1999, the economy of Kazakhstan has been at the stage of development, which is characterized by

fairly high growth rates. For the years of 1999-2002 the increase in the total GNP of the republic

was 40.1%. From 1999 to 2008, there was a steady growth in GDP: in 2008 GDP of Kazakhstan

was 159.1% of the level of 1991 (an increase of about 99% compared to 1998) (Table 1, Fig. 1 –

Fig. 4).

Table 1

The main macroeconomic indicators of Kazakhstan in indices*[1]

Year Y K L Yp Ys Yg Yh Yt Yn PO

1991 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100,0

1992 94,7 53 98,2 86 121 93 83 67 59 96,4

1995 69 16 84,9 48 69 55 53 29 15 84,9

2000 78 36 80,4 60 60 46 75 69 143,0

2005 127,7 112 94,1 92 78 70 105 126 272,3

2010 172,7 161 105,2 121 83 90 140 190 397,3

2011 185,2 166 107,6 125 106 111 177 213 555,2

2012 193,7 173 110,3 126 87 121 196 241 557,0

2013 204,9 185 111,1 129 97 132 212 280 541,7

2014 213,3 192 110,3 130 98 137 226 302 493,5

2015 215,9 199 111,8 127 102 136 232 301 261,5

2016 218,1 203 110,8 126 107,6 136,1 236,6 303,7 219,6

Y - indices of the physical volume of the gross domestic product, K - indices of the volume of

investment in fixed capital, L - indices of the number of employed population, Yp - indices of the

output of industry, Ys - indices of the output of agriculture, Yg - indices of the volume of

transportation of goods by transport enterprises, Yh - indices of the volume of passengers

transportation by transport enterprises, Yt - indices of the physical volume of retail turnover, Yn -

indices of the physical volume of paid services to the population by enterprises, Po - average annual

price of Brent (USD)

Kazakhstan, where oil is the main commodity, increases its revenues from the currency of

export earnings, whose share is about 72% of all foreign exchange earnings, which exceeded 47

billion dollars in 2007. At the same time, 74.2% of imports fall on the EU and CIS, where trade is

mainly for the more expensive euros and rubles. The difference is compensated by the acquisition

of an expensive currency and the loss from the exchange "scissors", according to experts, reach $

3.3 billion. However, the global economic crisis, which began in 2008, contributed to a slowdown

in GDP growth in Kazakhstan from 8.9% in 2007 to 2.4% in 2008. The economic recession was

avoided only thanks to a sharp drop in imports and an increase in investment demand.

High hydrocarbon prices and structural changes, foreign investment and political stability

have stimulated the economy and improved living standards in recent years. The challenge for the

future is to maintain this trend and ensure equitable development. Therefore, the economy needs to

increase its resilience to unfavorable current external factors, to find sources of growth other than

oil and gas. Expenditure of non-oil building materials, increase of labor productivity in agriculture

and expansion of the share of small and medium-sized enterprises are the most potential areas of

development.

Because the initial data Yt, Kt, Lt, etc. are represented by basic indices with respect to one

period (1991), then for any and for all periods t, the following is true: The situation Y >max ( ,K


L ) means that around period t, the development of the economy is quite efficient in the sense of using production factors (i.e., γ> 1, p> 0). On the contrary, the situation Y


In general, for the period of 1999-2016 the return on investment in fixed assets in

Kazakhstan's economy changed qualitatively. At this period, the economy of Kazakhstan has

developed by considering the aggregate factor productivity (AFP).

AFP is an indicator of the level of scientific and technological progress, a characteristic of

efficiency in the economy. All changes are considered throughout the period from 1991 to 2013 in

the economy of Kazakhstan.

In Fig. 5 dynamics of AFP Аt, as well as labor productivity y = Y / L shows their significant

decline, which occurred at the beginning of the transformational decline in 1991-1998, followed by

intensive growth in 1998-2008, the world financial crisis occurred in 2008-2009 and since 2010

economic growth has begun. Capital productivity has increased sharply from 1991 to 1996, falling

from 1996 to 2008, followed by crisis in 2008-2009 and since 2010 has been growing slowly.

The cyclic nature of the AFP Аt growth rate is shown in Fig. 6. The trends in the behavior of

these schedules show the raw material nature of Kazakhstan's economic development (especially

the periods of 1996-1998, 2003-2009 and 2010-2016).

Fig. 5. AFP: At=g

α*y

1-α, Capital Productivity:

g=Y/K, Labor Productivity: y=Y/L.

Fig. 6. The rate of growth of SFP δA

(substitution from GDP, investment in fixed

assets and the number of employees).

In the calculations (Figure 7-Fig. 10, Table 2), attention is also drawn to the expressed

cyclical character of the indices

n

it

i

t

i

t

itt

x

xxS

11

1

1/ 1002/1 ,

n

it

i

t

i

t

itt

x

xxS

10

0

0/ 1002/1 ,

1/

0/10/1/

tt

tttttt

S

SSQ и

nxxn

i

to

i

t

i

tot /1

/ . The graphs clearly show the following periods:

1992-1999, 2000-2009 and 2010-2020/2022 (forecast).

Table 2

The values of the exponents , , and

for the macro industries structure of Kazakhstan in the period of 1991-2016.

Year S B Q IS

1991

1992 46,0 46,0 73,6

1995 30,2 123,0 0,3 196,8

2000 33,7 95,0 -0,2 152,0

2005 16,7 45,5 0,3 72,8

2010 33,5 89,0 0,8 142,4

2011 46,4 116,0 0,6 185,6

2012 25,8 148,5 1,3 237,6

1/ ttS 0/ ttS1/ ttQ 0/ ttIS


2013 23,7 178,0 1,2 284,8

2014 10,0 198,5 2,0 317,6

2015 5,1 199,0 0,1 318,4

2016 4,6 205,0 1,3 315,4

The sharp decline in the coefficient of the sequence of structural shift in the period of 2007-

2009 characterizes the crisis state of Kazakhstan's macro-sectors in the global financial crisis.

A feature of the nature of the structural shifts in the economy of Kazakhstan is that they

represent not only a process, but also a certain result of economic development. The reason for the

structural shifts is various kinds of cyclical fluctuations in the economy of Kazakhstan. There are

several types of cyclical fluctuations of the objective economic order, differing in their causes,

duration and socio-economic consequences. Each of these cycles significantly affects the pace and

nature of the structural shifts. Some of them, linking economic cycles with structural crises and

structural shifts, are changes in the system of economic interests.

Fig. 7. Chain structural shift of macro industries

in Kazakhstan.

Fig. 8. Basic structural shift of macro industries

in Kazakhstan.

Fig. 9. Coefficient of sequence of structural shift

of Kazakhstan's macro-sectors.

Fig. 10. Intensive structural shift of

Kazakhstan's macro-industries.

Four indicators of the structural shift of the macro-sectors (chain structural shift, basic

structural shift, the coefficient of the sequence of structural shift and intensive structural shift)

sufficiently describe the cyclical fluctuations of the macroeconomic dynamics of Kazakhstan.

Specification of the model of the crisis cyclical dynamics of the evolution of the socio-

economic system of Kazakhstan. We take the logarithmic derivative of the variables K, L, Yp, Ys,

Yg, Yh, Yn, Yt, and PO with respect to time, from the function Y = F (K, L, Yp, Ys, Yg, Yh, Yt, Yn,

PO, t):


.11111

111111

t

F

Ydt

dP

P

F

Ydt

dY

Y

F