Monografia- Teoria de Las Decisiones

7/23/2019 Monografia- Teoria de Las Decisiones

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1

“UNIVERSIDAD PERUANA

LOS ANDES”

MÉTODOS CUANTITATIVOSTEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES



2 “UNIVERSIDAD PERUANA LOS ANDES”

“Año de la Diversifcación Productiva ydel Fortalecimiento de la Educación”

TEMA:

CATEDRATICO (A):

SECC: B1 CICLO: V

INTEGRANTES: LIBERATO SOTO YESENIA

MANTARI INGA NATALIA BETZABETH

RAMOS VILLACRIZ YOSEL

MORALES BARRETO KEVIN

LOZANO ALVARES WILFREDO

FACULAD DE C!E"C!A# AD$!"!#%A!&A# ' C("A)LE

CA%%E%A P%(FE#!("AL* AD$!"!#%AC!(" '



+

INDICE1. DEDICATORIA……………………………………………….

!. INTRODUCCI"N……………………………………………. #

$. TOMA DE DECICI"N………………………………………. %

. IMPORTANCIA DE LA TOMA DE DECISIONES………… &

,-1 CASO PRACTICO N' 1………………………………. (

#. TOMA DE DECISIONES BA)O RIESGO………………….. 1!

.-1 CASO PRACTICO N' !……………………………… 1#

%. *RBOL DE DECISIONES Y DIAGRAMA DEINFLUENCIA………………………………………………. !$

&. TOMA DE DECISIONES BA)O INCERTIDUMBRE…………… !%

+. TOMA DE DECISISONES BA)O CONDICIONES DECONFLICTO………………………………………………… !&

(. CONCLUSIONES………………………………………………. !(



,

DEDICATORIA

Primero y antes que nada dar !ra"ias a

Dios #or estar "onmi!o en "ada #aso quedoy$ A mis #adres y dem%s #ersonas yaque me &rindan e' a#oyo 'a a'e!ra y me

dan 'a orta'e*a ne"esaria #ara se!uir



.

INTRODUCCI"N

E, - /0 23-4 5 6,67 3, 3- 89:067 ;27<3=07,- >797 3- ;32=7,-4 ,7= /397= 9?-606?3 =06?>07,3= 3, -= @?3 63,397= @?3 3>002 3,623 /20= -632,60/=. L ;27;0 ,7 3=98= @?3 ?, <729 3 6792 ?, 3>0=0, 3,623 ?,= -632,60/= <>60:-3=.A=4 3, =? 093,=0, 98= :8=0>4 ?, ;27>3=7 3 679 3 3>0=0, ;?33 3,63,32=3>797 - 3-3>>0, 3 -7 “9372” 3,623 -7 “;7=0:-3”. A72 :03,4 =3, 3<0, @? 3= -79372 5 @? 3= -7 ;7=0:-3 ,7= 3,<23,62397= 0=60,6= =06?>07,3= 3 3>0=0,.

L 7;6090>0, >-8=0> 603,3 >797 >2>632=60> 3,32- @?3 -7 93724 3- 7:360/74 3=,0>7 5 3=68 >-293,63 363290,7 3J>3;67 3, 7;6090>0, 9?-60 7:360/7 5 @?3 -7

;7=0:-34 -= =7-?>07,3= <>60:-3=4 ,7 /03,3, 3J;23== 3J;->0693,63 =0,7 3, <729 323=620>>07,3= 5 =0, 0,>3260?9:23 3J>3;67 3, 7;6090>0, 3=67>8=60>4 @?3 ,7 3=

;23>0=93,63 >-8=0>P327 398= 3 3=67= >7,63J67= 3 3>0=0, 3 7;6090>0, >-8=0>4 3J0=63, 7627= @?3>7,<0?2, -7 @?3 =3 =?3-3 3,790,2 3, 6290,7= 9;-07= - 6372 3 - 3>0=0,. T23=2,3= :-7@?3= =7, -7= @?3 =3 =?3-3, :722 3, 3=63 ,8-0=0=

L teoría de la decisión con incertidumbre o riesgo4 3, - @?3 =3 ,-0 - 6793 3>0=07,3= >7, -367203 7 0,>3260?9:23 3, -7= 23=?-67=4 3 977 @?3-= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3 ?, 3>0=0, ,7 3=68, 363290,= 3 ,639,74 =0,7 @?33=68, =?36= - 2.

: L decisión multicriterio4 3, - @?3 =0 :03, ?, 3>0=0, =?= >7,=3>?3,>0=3=68, ;32<3>693,63 363290,=4 -7 @?3 ,7 3=68 3<0,07 6, >-293,63 3= @?3= -7 93724 3J0=603,7 /207= 7:360/7= 3, >7,<-0>67.

> L teoría de juegos4 3, - @?3 -= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3 ?, 3>0=0, ,7 3;3,3,,0>93,63 3 - 3>0=0, 7;64 =0,74 69:0, 3 - @?3 3-0, 7627=

?723=. E, 3=63 >7,63J674 -7= ;27:-39= 3 3>0=0, >7, -367203 3-

:-7@?3 ,632072 =?3-3, =32 3,790,7= ?37= <23,63 - ,6?2-3.



/

TEORÍA DE LAS DECISIONES BA)O RIESGO4

CERTIDUMBRE Y CONFLICTO

U,7 3 -7= =;3>67= 98= 09;726,63= 3, - /0 3 > ;32=7, 3= - TOMA DEDECISIONES T77= 5 > ?,7 3 ,7=7627= ;=97= -7= = 5 -= 72= 3 ,?3=62/0 63,03,7 @?3 6792 3>0=07,3= -?,= 3>0=07,3= 603,3, ?, 09;726,>0 23-60/3, 3- 3=227--7 3 ,?3=62 /04 903,62= 762= ,7 =7, 6, 09;726,63= 3, 3--.

P2 -7= 90,0=62723=4 3- ;27>3=7 3 679 3 3>0=0, 3= =0, ? ?, 3 -= 95723=23=;7,=:0-03=. N7 7:=6,634 3=63 ;27>3=7 -7 --3/97= >:7 <23>?3,6393,634 ?,>?,7 ,7 -7 ,76397= ;72 339;-74 =0 /97= >79;22 -, 363290,7 ;27?>67 53J0=63, 7= -?23= 3, 7,3 =63 =3 3,>?3,62 - /3,64 3:397= 3>002 3, ,3>79;22-7 7 0,>-?=74 =0 23-93,63 ,7= >7,/03,3 >32-7. L 679 3 3>0=07,3= 3, ?,

72,0>0, =3 >02>?,=>20:3 ?, =3203 3 ;32=7,= @?3 3=68, ;75,7 3- 90=97 ;2753>67. D3:397= 39;32 ;72 >32 ?, =3-3>>0, 3 3>0=07,3=4 5 3=6 =3-3>>0, 3=?, 3 -= 623= 3 2, 62=>3,3,>0.

+$ TOMA DE DECISI,N

L 679 3>0=07,3= 3= <?,93,6- 3, >?-@?032 >60/0 ?9,4 3, 3=63 =3,607

677= =797= 679723= 3 3>0=07,3=. S0, 39:274 6792 ?, 3>0=0, >326

39;03 >7, ?, ;27>3=7 3 27,903,67 >7,=6,63 <7>-074 @?3 ;?33 0,>-?02 /20= 0=>0;-0,= >797 - <0-7=7< 3- >7,7>0903,674 - >03,>0 5 - -0> 5 ;72

=7:23 6774 -3 >2360/0.

U, 323,63 3:3 6792 9?>= 3>0=07,3= 677= -7= =. A-?,= 3 3--= =7,

3>0=07,3= 3 2?60,= 903,62= @?3 762= 603,3, ?, 23;32>?=0, 28=60> 3, -=

7;32>07,3= 3 - 39;23= 7,3 62:. C0326= 3 3=6= 3>0=07,3= 0,/7-?>22 -

,,>0 7 ;20 3 2,3= =?9= 3 0,327 7 3- >?9;-0903,67 7

0,>?9;-0903,67 7 0,>?9;-0903,67 3 - 90=0, 5 -= 936= 3 - 39;23=.

E, 3=63 9?,7 > /3 98= >79;-374 - 0<0>?-6 3 -= 623= 3 -7= 3>0=723=

?93,6 4 3- 3>0=72 ?, ;32=7, @?3 603,3 ?, ;27:-394 3:3 23=;7,32

>7, 2;03 -7= >7,63>0903,67= @?3 ;23>3, 7>?2202 ?, 20697 > /3 98=

/3-74 398= ?, 3>0=72 3:3 =090-2 =? 3>0=0, ?, >7,?,67 3 7;>07,3= 5

>7,=3>?3,>0= @?3 9?>= /3>3= 23=?-6 3=>7,>326,63.

C7, <23>?3,>04 -= 3>0=07,3= 3 2?60,= =3 679, 28;093,634 @?08=0,>7,=>03,6393,634 =0, ,3>3=0 3 3-:722 ?, ;27>3=7 36--7 3



0>7,=032>0,4 =0, 39:27 >?,7 -= 3>0=07,3= =7, >79;-3=4 >260>= 7

09;726,63=4 3= ,3>3=207 6792=3 3- 6039;7 ;2 3>002 =0=639860>93,63.

E, >=0 677= -7= ;27:-39= 3 3>0=0, =3 3,>?3,62, -7= =0?03,63=

>79;7,3,63=

• E- 3>0=72.

• E- ,-0=6 @?3 973- 3- ;27:-39 ;2 5?2 - 3>0=72.

• F>6723= >7,627-:-3=.

• F>6723= 0,>7,627-:-3=.

• L7= 23=?-67= ;7=0:-3= 3 - 3>0=0,.

• L= 23=620>>07,3= 9:03,6-3=4 3=62?>6?2-3=.

• L= 0,632>>07,3= 0,890>= 3,623 3=67= >79;7,3,63=.

-$ IMPORTANCIA DE LA TOMA DE DECISIONES

E= 09;726,63 ;72@?3 930,63 3- 39;-37 3 ?, :?3, ?0>074 - T79 3D3>0=07,3= =7:23 677 3, >7,0>07,3= 3 >32634 0,>3260?9:23 5 203=74 ,7=0,0> @?3 ?, ;27:-39 7 =06?>0, 3= /-727 5 >7,=0327 ;27<?,93,63

;2 3-302 3- 9372 >90,7 =3?02 =3, -= 0<323,63= -632,60/= 5

7;32>07,3=. T9:0, 3= 3 /06- 09;726,>0 ;2 - 90,0=62>0, 5 @?3>7,620:?53 9,63,32 - 297, 5 >7323,>0 3- 2?;74 5 ;72 3,3 =?3<0>03,>0.

E, - T79 3 D3>0=07,3= :7 >7,0>07,3= 3 >32634 0,>3260?9:23 5 203=74>7,=0322 ?, ;27:-39 5 --32 ?, >7,>-?=0, /8-04 =0,0<0> @?3 =3 ,3J90,7 67= -= -632,60/= 5 @?3 - 3-3>>0, =07 >7223>6. D0>7

;3,=903,67 -0>7 ?93,628 - >7,<0, 3, - >;>0 ;2 ?2 5>7,627-2 =06?>07,3=.

E-:72>0, 3 ;2390==.

I3,60<0>>0, 3 -632,60/=.

E/-?>0, 3 -632,60/= 3, 6290,7= 3 - 936 3=3.

E-3>>0, 3 ?, -632,60/4 3= 3>024 6792 ?, 3>0=0,.

C?,7 3- 90,0=6272 >7,=0327 -= ;7=0:-3= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3 =?= 7;>07,3=4 53=68 3, >7,0>07,3= 3 6792 - 3>0=0,. D3:3 >7,=0322 623= 6290,7= 9?509;726,63=. E=67= =7, 9J09024 =60=<>32 5 7;60902.

MJ0902 3= 6792 - 9372 3>0=0, ;7=0:-3



S60=<>32 3= - 3-3>>0, 3 - ;20932 7;>0, @?3 =3 9,0993,63 >3;6:-3 73>?4 5 3 3=6 <729 =3 =60=<>3 ?, 936 7 >2063207 :?=>7.

O;60902 E= 3- 9372 3@?0-0:207 ;7=0:-3 3,623 0=60,6= 936=.

A) LA TEOR.A DE LA DECISI,N CON INCERTID/M0REO RIESGO: E, - @?3 =3 ,-0 - 679 3 3>0=07,3= >7, -367203

7 0,>3260?9:23 3, -7= 23=?-67=4 3 977 @?3 -= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3 ?,

3>0=0, ,7 3=68, 363290,= 3 ,639,74 =0,7 @?3 3=68, =?36= - 2.

0) LA DECISI,N M/LTICRITERIO: E, - @?3 =0 :03, ?,

3>0=0, =?= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3=68, ;32<3>693,63 363290,=4 -7 @?3 ,7

3=68 3<0,07 6, >-293,63 3= @? 3= -7 93724 3J0=603,7 /207= 7:360/7=

3, >7,<-0>67.

C) LA TEOR.A DE 1/EGOS: E, - @?3 -= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3 ?,

3>0=0, ,7 3;3,3, ,0>93,63 3 - 3>0=0, 7;64 =0,74 69:0,

3 - @?3 3-0, 7627= ?723=. E, 3=63 >7,63J674 -7= ;27:-39= 3

3>0=0, >7, -367203 3- :-7@?3 ,632072 =?3-3, =32 3,790,7=

?37= <23,63 - ,6?2-3.

EL P%(CE#( DE ($A DE DEC!#!("E#

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1. R3>7,7>3 3- ;27:-39

!. C7,=032 6?= 936=

$. B?=> -632,60/=

. A,-0 -7= 23>?2=7= @?3 23@?0323 > >?2=7 3 >>0, -632,60/7

#. S3-3>>07, - 9372 -632,60/

%. P7, 6? 3>0=0, 3, >>0,

&. A>3;6 - 23=;7,=:0-0

+. E/- -7= 23=?-67=

- U= 8:067= ;2 23?>02 3- 6039;7 3, 3- ;27>3=7 3 679 3 3>0=07,3=.

CASO PRACTICO N2 +

U, 39;23= >79;2 - 96320 ;209 7= ;27/33723= A 5 B4 >?5 >-0 =3 9?3=62 3, -6:- =0?03,63*

Pie3asde4ectuosas

Pro5a5ilidad6ara el6roveedor A

Pro5a5ilidad6ara el6roveedor )

17 8-8 8-,827 8-18 8-+8+7 8-18 8-+8

L ;27::0-0 3 23>0:02 ?, -763 3- ;27/3372 A 3, 3- @?3 5 ?, 1 3 ;03= 3<3>6?7== 3=3- &. L7= ;307= @?3 23-0 - 39;23= =>03,3, 1. ;03=. U, ;03 3<3>6?7=

;?33 =32 23;2 ;72 1 3?27. S0 :03, 6- 5 >797 0,0> - 6:- - >-0 3- ;27/3372 B 3=93,724 =63 3=68 0=;?3=67 /3,32 -= 1. ;03= ;72 1 3?27= 93,7= @?3 3- ;27/3372 A.I,0@?3 3- ;27/3372 @?3 3:3 ?60-02.

So'u"i3n:

Paso + E,?9323 -= 0<323,63= -632,60/= 3 3>0=0,.

P27/3372 A.P27/3372 B.

Paso - E,?9323 ;2 > ?, 3 -= -632,60/= 3 3>0=0,4 -7= 3=67= 3 -,6?2-3 =7>07= - 90=9.

A-632,60/= E=67= 3 - ,6?2-3P27/3372 A 1 3 ;03= 3<3>6?7==

! 3 ;03= 3<3>6?7==$ 3 ;03= 3<3>6?7==

P27/3372 B 1 3 ;03= 3<3>6?7==

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18! 3 ;03= 3<3>6?7==$ 3 ;03= 3<3>6?7==

Paso 4 EJ;-0>063 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=0,.

Paso 5 A=0,3 -= ;27::0-03= a priori

3 > ?,7 3 -7= 3=67= 3 -

,6?2-3.

Paso 6 C->?-3 3- >7=63 3 > ?, 3 -= 29= 3- 82:7-.



11

E- >7=63 3 > 29 -7 7:603,3 ;26023- ,9327 3 ?,03= 3<3>6?7==. S03,7 -7= ;307= 3 1. ;03=4 -= ?,03=3<3>6?7== =328,

En e' "aso de +7 dee"tuosa:

1. ;03= J 1 Q 3<3>6?7== 1 ;03= Q 3<3>6?7==

En e' "aso de -7 dee"tuosas:

1. ;03= J ! Q 3<3>6?7== ! ;03= Q 3<3>6?7==

En e' "aso de 47 dee"tuosas

1. ;03= J $ Q 3<3>6?7== $ ;03= Q 3<3>6?7==

Si "ada #ie*a dee"tuosa #uede ser re#arada #or + euro e' "oste de 'a re#ara"i3nas"iende a:

En e' "aso de +7 dee"tuosa:

1 ;03=Q3<3>6?7== J 1 3?27 Q ;03 3<3>6?7= 1 3?27=

En e' "aso de -7 dee"tuosas:! ;03= Q 3<3>6?7== J 1 3?27 Q ;03 3<3>6?7= ! 3?27=

En e' "aso de 47 dee"tuosas:

$ ;03=Q3<3>6?7== J 1 3?27 Q ;03 3<3>6?7= $ 3?27=

E, 3- >=7 3- ;27/3372 A 3- >7=63 3= 1 3?27= =?;32072 - 3- ;27/3372 B4 6- 5 >7970,0> 3- 3,?,>07 3- 332>0>07.



12Paso 8 R3=?3-/ 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=0, 3 323> 0@?032. D7 @?3 - 36; <0,- 3=

;27::0-0=6 3:3 ;-0>2 3- >2063207 3 - 3=;32, 9639860> >7, 3- 7:360/7 3363290,2 3- >7=63 3=;327 3 > -632,60/ 3 3>0=0,.

! J 4+ $ J 41 J 41 !$ 3?27=

1 J 4 ! J 4$ $ J 4$ 1( 3?27=

C7-7@?3 3- 23=?-67 3,>09 3- ,?7 >7223=;7,03,63.

Paso 9 R3=?3-/ - 36; ,632072. D7 @?3 3=6 ;20932 36; 3= 363290,0=6 5 @?3

-7= /-723= @?3 >->?-7 =7, >7=63=4 3:3 3-302 - -632,60/ >?57 >7=63 =3 93,725 >7-7>2 3- 23=?-67 3,>09 3- ,?7 >7223=;7,03,63.E- >7=63 3=;327 3 >79;22 - ;03 - ;27/3372 A 3= 3 !$ 3?27= =3, >->?-73, 3- ;=7 ,6320724 903,62= @?3 3- 3 >79;22 - ;03 - ;27/3372 B 3= 3 1( 3?27=4

;72 -7 @?3 3:328 >79;22 - ;03 3- ;27/3372 B 7 @?3 3- >7=63 3= 93,72.

S0?03,7 3- >2063207 3 - 3=;32, 9639860> 3:3 >79;22 - ;03 - ;27/3372 B.



1+4$ TOMA DE DECISIONES 0A1O RIESGO:

E, - 679 3 3>0=07,3= =3 ;?33 2 ?, 9:03,63 3 203=7 >?,7 >3>0=0, 679 ;?33 6232 0,,?932:-3= >7,=3>?3,>0= -= @?3 ;?33 =0,2=3 ?,

0=620:?>0, 3 ;27::0-0 >7,7>04 3=6= 3>0=07,3= 3=68, >2>6320= ;72@?3 ;?33 =7>02=3 ?, ;27::0-0 3 @?3 -7 7>?22 > 3=67 3 - ,6?2-3>797 >7,=3>?3,>0 3 - 3>0=0, 6794 3=6= ;27::0-03= =7, >7,7>0= 7 ;?33,=32 3=609= ;72 3- 3>0=72 ,63= 3- ;27>3=7 3 679 3 3>0=07,3=.

L7= >2063207= @?3 =3 679, 3, >?3,6 3, ?, 3>0=0, 3, 9:03,63 3 203=7 =3 :=,3, 3=6=60>7= =7>07= - 0=620:?>0, 3 ;27::0-0 3 -7= 23=?-67=4 3= 3>02 @?3=3 603,3 98= 7 93,7= - 03 3 -7 @?3 ;?33 =?>332 =0 =3 679 6- 3>0=0,. A-?,7= 33=67= >2063207= =3 ;-0>, =7:23 - 676-0 3 -= -632,60/=4 903,62= @?3 7627= =-7603,3, 3, >?3,6 ?, =?:>7,?,67 3 3--= @?3 =32, -= 98= ;27;0= 7 @?3 =3 >233 @?32272 3- 9372 23=?-67 ;7=0:-34 >7,=032,7 -= 23=6,63= ;3723=4 ;72 -7 ,7 @?3

3=68, ;23=3,63= 3, 3- ;27>3=7 3 679 3 3>0=07,3=.

L7= 0,0/0?7= 3, 677= -7= ,0/3-3= 5 3, 67= -= 823= 3 -= 72,0>07,3= 679,3>0=07,3=. E= 3>024 3=>73, 3,623 7= 7 98= -632,60/=. P72 339;-74 -7= 323,63= 3-67 ,0/3- 679, 3>0=07,3= >32> 3 -= 936= 3 - 72,0>0,4 ,3 3=6:-3>32

;-,6= 9,?<>6?232=4 3, @? ,?3/7= 932>7= =328 >7,/3,03,63 0,>?2=07,2 5 @? ;27?>67= 7 =32/0>07= 7<23>32.

L 679 3 3>0=07,3= ,7 3= =7-7 3=>732 3,623 /20= -632,60/=4 =0 ,7 @?3 - 679 33>0=07,3= 3= ?, ;27>3=7 >79;-367 5 ,7 6, =-7 3- >67 3 3=>732 ?, 3,623 /20=-632,60/=.RIESGO E= - ;27::0-0 3 @?3 =?>3 ?, 3/3,674 09;>67 7 >7,=3>?3,>0/32=7=. S3 3,603,3 69:0, >797 - 930 3 - ;7=0:0-0 5 9,06? 3 -7=09;>67= /32=7=4 =03,7 - >7,=3>?3,>0 3- ;3-0274 5 3=68 3, 23->0, >7, -<23>?3,>0 >7, @?3 =3 ;23=3,63 3- 3/3,67. S3 ;27?>3 3- 203=7 =039;23 @?3 ,7 =797=>;>3= 3 0,7=60>2 >7, >3263 3- 23=?-67 3 -?, -632,60/4 ;327 >7,697=>7, =?<0>03,63 0,<729>0, >797 ;2 ;23/32 - ;27::0-0 @?3 63, ;2 --3/2,7= ?, 3=67 3 >7== 3=3

A DECISIONES 0A1O CONDICIONES DE RIESGO: R03=7 676-4 9?5

;7> 0,<729>0, =7, -= 98= 0<>0-3= 3 6792. 3=63 60;7 3 3>0=0, =3

:= 3, - 6372 3 - ;27::0-04 @?3 >3 ?=7 3 - 6372 9732, 3

- ?60-0.

P72 9?>74 - =06?>0, 6;0> 3= 3- 203=7. E- 3,>27 3 6792 -=

3>0=07,3= 3= >; 3 3=6092 - /327=090-06? 3 -= -632,60/= 7 -7=

23=?-67=. E=6 >;>0 3 =0,2 ;27::0-03= ;72 =32 ?,

23=?-67 3 - 3J;3203,>0 ;32=7,- 7 3 0,<729>0, =3>?,20. E, ?,

=06?>0, 3 203=74 @?08= =3 >?3,63 >7, 0,<729>0, := 3, 3>7=4

;327 - 90=9 ;?33 23=?-62 0,>79;-36. P2 93722 - 679 3

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1,3>0=07,3= =3 ;?33 3=6092 -= ;27::0-03= 7:360/= 3 ?, 23=?-674 -

?60-024 ;72 339;-7 973-7= 9639860>7=. P72 762 ;263 =3 ;?33 ?=2 -

;27::0-0 =?:360/4 := 3, 3- ?0>07 5 - 3J;3203,>0.

A<726?,93,63 =3 >?3,6 >7, /20= 322903,6= @?3 5?, -7=

90,0=62723= 6792 3>0=07,3= 98= 3<0>>3=.

U, 3,<7@?3 2>07,- ;2 3/-?2 -= -632,60/= :7 >7,0>07,3= 3

203=7 3= 3- ?=7 3- /-72 3=;327. E=63 3= ?, >7,>3;67 @?3 ;329063

@?03, 679 -= 3>0=07,3= =0,2 ?, /-72 97,36207 =3, -=

>7,=3>?3,>0= ;7=060/= 5 ,360/= @?3 ;72, 23=?-62 3 - =3-3>>0, 3

?, -632,60/ 3, ;260>?-2. E, 3- 9793,67 3 6792 3>0=07,3=4 677= -7=

90,0=62723= 3:3, 3 ;7,322 -632,60/=4 9?>= 3 -= >?-3=

09;-0>, =?>3=7= <?6?27= @?3 23=?-6, 0<>0-3= 3 ;23/32 - 23>>0, 3 ?,

>79;36072 ?, ,?3/ -0=6 3 ;23>07=4 -= 6== 3 0,632= 3,627 3 623=

7=4 - >7,<0:0-0 3 ?, ,?3/7 ;27/3372. P72 3=6 2,4 -=

=06?>07,3= 3 679 3 3>0=07,3= =3 >7,=032, 3,627 3 ?, -,3

>7,60,? @?3 / 3 - >3263 -693,63 ;23/0=0:-3 - 6?2:?-3,>0

-693,63 09;23/0=0:-3

B TOMA DE DECISIONES 0A1O RIESGO (INCERTID/M0RE):C?,7 =3 3:3 6792 ?, 3>0=0,4 3- 23=;7,=:-3 :?=> - 9572 >,60 ;7=0:-3 3 0,<729>0, =7:23 - 7>?223,>0 ;7=0:-3 3 -7= 3/3,67=<?6?27=. C?,7 3=6 ,7 =3 ;?33 7:63,324 - 679 3 3>0=07,3=3= = ?, -7632 5 =3 >7,7>3 >797 679 3 3>0=07,3= :7 :=7-?60,>3260?9:23.S0, 39:274 - 679 3 3>0=07,3= =3 603,3 @?3 23-024 = =3 ,7 >32 ,. EJ0=63, >2063207= @?3 ,7= ;329063, >32>2,7= 0,6?060/93,63 -79372. L7= >2063207= 98= ?60-07= ;2 - 679 3 3>0=07,3=

:7 0,>3260?9:23 =7, C2063207 7;6090=64 >2063207 ;3=090=64 >2063207 3-223;3,60903,67 5 3- >2063207 3 /20:0-0M?>7= 3 -7= ;27:-39= @?3 ,7= 3,<23,697=4 =?;7,3 @?3 >->?-397= -

;27::0-03= @?3 >03267= 3>7= =?>3,4 3= 3>024 @?3 ?=397=,7>07,3= 3=6=60>=.S0, 39:274 -= ;32=7,= ,7 =7, 3=6=60>7= ;32<3>67=4 >7936397=322723= :=6,63 2/3=. E, - 679 3 3>0=07,3= :7 203=7 =3 >7,7>3,-= ;27::0-03= 3 -7= 3>7=4 ;327 ,7 -7= 23=?-67=.P72 339;-74 C?,67 ;?3=6 U=63 @?3 =-3 ?, ,?9327 ;2 =0 6027 ?,7 =3 =:3 @?3 1 3 > ! 6027= =7, ;23=.



1.C?,74 398= 3 ;23/32 -7= ;7=0:-3= 23=?-67= <?6?27= =7>07= ?,-632,60/4 =3 -3= ;?33 =0,2 ;27::0-03= ?,@?3 =3, =?:360/= > ?,7 3 3--7=4 3,67,>3= =3 0>3 @?3 =3 3,>?3,62 <23,63 ?, =06?>0,

:7 203=7. E- 203=7 3= @?3-- =06?>0, =7:23 - >?- 63,397= 0,<729>0,4 ,7 =7-73 -7= 3/3,67= ;7=0:-3=4 =0,7 3 =?= ;27::0-03=.

L 679 3 3>0=07,3= =3 3<0,3 >797 - =3-3>>0, 3 ?, >?2=7 3 >>07,3= 3,623

-632,60/=4 3= 3>02 @?3 3J0=63 ?, ;-, ?, >79;2790=7 3 23>?2=7= 3 023>>0, 7

23;?6>0,. L 679 3 3>0=07,3= >797 =? 62:7 ;20,>0;- 5 @?3 603,3, @?3

=3-3>>07,2 >7,=6,6393,63 @? =3 >34 @?03, -7 >3 5 >?8,74 ,3 3 0,>-?=7 >797

=3 28. S0, 39:27 - 679 3 3>0=07,3= 3= =-7 ?, ;=7 3 - ;-,3>0, 5 @?3

<729 - ;263 3=3,>0- 3 -7= ;27>3=7= @?3 =3 =0?3, ;2 3-:72>0, 3 -7= 7:360/7= 7936= 62= =3?02. R2 /3 =3 ;?33 ?2 =-7 ?, >?2=7 3 >>0,4 ;72@?3

;28>60>93,63 > 3>0=0, 603,3 @?3 3=62 3,2, >7, 7627= ;-,3=.

E- ;27>3=7 @?3 >7,?>3 - 679 3 3>0=0,

1. E-:72>0, 3 ;2390==

!. I3,60<0>>0, 3 -632,60/=

$. E/-?>0, 3 -= -632,60/=4 3, 6290,7= 3 936= @?3 =3 3=3 ->,2

. S3-3>>0, 3 ?, -632,60/4 3= 3>02 6792 ?, 3>0=0,

CASO PRACTICO N2 -

E- /3,372 3 ;3200>7=. E= ?, >=7 9?5 08>60>7 ;2 3J;-0>2 - 679

3 3>0=07,3= :7 203=7. E- /3,372 3 ;3200>7= >79;2 - ?,0 3,

1! 5 -7 /3,3 3, !. S0 ?, ;3200>7 ,7 =3 /3,3 -7 3:3 3/7-/32

- 306720- 23>0:03,7 ! >797 /-72 3 23>?;32>0,. E=67 @?0323 3>02

@?3 ?, ;3200>7 @?3 =3 /3, 3 ?, ?60-0 3 +4 903,62= @?3 ?,

;3200>7 @?3 ,7 =3 /3, 3 ?, ;20 3 1. L 39, 3-

;3200>7 3= /20:-3. E- @?3 93,7= =3 /3,3 3= 1# ;3200>7= ;327 3- @?3 98= /3,3 3= !. L 39, 3 ;3200>7= 3= /20:-34 3;3,3



1/3 <>6723= =7>0-3= 5 7627=. L 39, 3 ;3200>7= 020 3, -7=

-6097= 7= 93=3= 3=

1& 1# 1% 1+ 1+ ! 1& 1# 1# 1(1% 1& 1% 1& 1& 1# 1( 1& 1( 1+1+ 1( 1( 1+ ! 1+ 1& 1+ 1+ 1(1+ 1% 1+ 1& 1( 1( 1( 1+ ! 1+! 1& 1& ! ! ! 1+ 1& 1% 1%1+ 1# 1& 1+ 1& 1& 1% 1+ 1& 1%

A$ C7, 3= 0,<729>0, >7,=62?5 ?, 6:- 3 <23>?3,>0= 5 -0=620:?>0, 3 ;27::0-03=. P27::0-0 C=7= </72:-3=

C=7= ;7=0:-3=

REC/ERDE /E:

P 1( .1#. L ;27::0-0 @?3 3, ?, =3 39,3 1( ?,03=3= .1#4 3= 3>024 3 1 =4 3, 1# = 39,2, 1( ;3200>7=.

P X 1& .%&. L ;27::0-0 @?3 3, ?, =3 39,3 1& 7 93,7= ;3200>7 3= .%&4 3= 3>024 3 1 =4 3, %.& = 39,2, 1& ;3200>7=.

P 1+ .!%&. L ;27::0-0 @?3 3, ?, =3 39,3 98= 3 1+ ;3200>7= 3= .!%&.4 3= 3>024 3 1 =4 3, !%.& = =3 39,2,98= 3 1+ ;3200>7=.

P 1# 1. L ;27::0-0 @?3 3, ?, =3 39,3, 1# 7 98= ;3200>7= 3= 1.4 3= 3>024 3, 677= -7= = =3 39,28, 1# 7 98=

;3200>7=. D3 762 <729 ;7397= 3>02 @?3 =0 3, ?, =3 >7-7>, 1# ;3200>7=4 >7, 67 =3?20 -7= /3,328 677=.

E=6 >7-?9, - --92397= P4 - ;27::0-0 3 /3,6 ;2 >?-@?032

>,60 3 ;3200>7=4 903,62= @?3 P J0 3= - ;27::0-0 3 ,7

/3,32. 1 P

P P27::0-0 3 /3,32 677= -7= ;3200>7=. 1 P P27::0-0 3 ,7 /3,32 677= -7= ;3200>7=.



10E, - 6:- =3 9?3=62, -= ?60-03= >7,0>07,-3=4 ;2 3- >=7 3-/3,372 3 ;3200>7=. U60-03= 020=

C) DECISI,N 0A1O RIESGO L7= ;27>3=7= 3 3>0=0, 3, 9:03,63 3

203=7 =3 >2>6320, ;72@?3 ;?33 =7>02=3 ?, ;27::0-0 3

7>?223,>0 > 3=67 3 - ,6?2-34 ;27::0-03= @?3 =7, >7,7>0=

7 ;?33, =32 3=609= ;72 3- 3>0=72 ,63= 3- ;27>3=7 3 679 3

3>0=07,3=. E=6 >6372 0,>-?53 @?3--= 3>0=07,3= ;2 -= @?3 -=

>7,=3>?3,>0= 3 ?, >>0, 3;3,3, 3 -, 3/3,67 ;27::0-0=6. E-

;27>3=7 3 3>0=0, =3 3=>20:3 >7,60,?>0,

E- ;27:-39 3=68 3<0,07 5 67= -= -632,60/= >7,<0:-3= , =07

>7,=032=. L7= 23=?-67= ;7=0:-3= ;2 > -632,60/ =7,

3/-?7=. L7= 23=?-67= =7, 0=>?607= 3 >?327 =? 2339:7-=7 97,36207 7

3 >?327 - ,,>0 ,36 3, >60/7= 7 >7, 23=;3>67 - 6039;7 V207= /-723= 0,>03267= =7, >?,60<0>7= 3, 6290,7= 3

;27::0-0. L >-0 3 - 3=62630 ;609 3;3,3 3 - >-0 >7, @?3 =3

??3. E- 67972 3 3>0=07,3= 3:328 3J90,2 3 03,60<0>2 -

=3,=0:0-0 3 - 3=62630 7;609 >7, 23=;3>67 -7= <>6723=

>2?>0-3=.

C?,7 3- 3>0=72 ;7=33 -, >7,7>0903,67 =7:23 -7= 3=67= 3 -

,6?2-3 ;?33 =0,2-3 - 7>?223,>0 3 > 3=67 -?, 3=609>0,

=?:360/ 3 ;27::0-0. E, 3=67= >=7=4 3- ;27:-39 =3 >-=0<0> >797 3

679 3 3>0=07,3= >7, 203=7. E- 3>0=72 ;?33 =0,2 ;27::0-03= -

7>?223,>0 3 -7= 3=67= 3 - ,6?2-3. E- ;27>3=7 3 679 3 3>0=0, >7,

203=7 3= 3- =0?03,63

A. U=3 - 0,<729>0, @?3 63, ;2 =0,2 =? ;23>32 ;32=7,-

--97 ;27::0-03= =?:360/= =7:23 3- 3=67 3 - ,6?2-34

;=B. C >?2=7 3 >>0, 603,3 =7>07 ?, 363290,7 :3,3<0>07 >7,

> ?,7 3 -7= 3=67= 3 - ,6?2-34 4=C. C->?-97= 3- :3,3<0>07 3=;3274 69:0, --97 203=7 7 R4

>7223=;7,03,63 > >?2=7 3 >>0, >797 R S?9= 3 [4=

;=\



1D. A>3;697= 3- ;20,>0;07 @?3 0>3 @?3 3:3297= >6?2 ;2

90,0902 7 9J0902 3- :3,3<0>07 3=;327E. E3>?63 - >>0, @?3 90,090>3 R.

E, -= 3>0=07,3= :7 203=7 L 0,<729>0, >7, - @?3 =3 >?3,6 ;2=7-?>07,2 3- ;27:-39 3= 0,>79;-364 3= 3>024 =3 >7,7>3 3- ;27:-394 =3

>7,7>3, -= ;7=0:-3= =7-?>07,3=4 ;327 ,7 =3 >7,7>3 >7, >3263 -7= 23=?-67=

@?3 ;?33, 2272.

E, 3=63 60;7 3 3>0=07,3=4 -= ;7=0:-3= -632,60/= 3 =7-?>0, 603,3, >0326

;27::0-0 >7,7>0 3 3,322 ?, 23=?-67. E, 3=67= >=7= =3 ;?33, ?=2

973-7= 9639860>7= 7 69:0, 3- 3>0=72 ;?33 >32 ?=7 3 - ;27::0-0

7:360/ 7 =?:360/ ;2 3=6092 3- ;7=0:-3 23=?-67.

L ;27::0-0 7:360/ 3= - ;7=0:0-0 3 @?3 7>?22 ?, 23=?-67

:=8,7=3 3, 3>7= >7,>2367=4 ;?33 =32 >0<2= 3 7= ,6320723= 7 3=6?07=

23-07= ;2 3=63 <0,. E, - ;27::0-0 =?:360/ =3 363290, 3- 23=?-67

:=8,7=3 3, 7;0,07,3= 5 ?0>07= ;32=7,-3=.

E=63 973-74 0,>-?53 @?3--= 3>0=07,3= ;2 -= @?3 -= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3

?, >>0, 3;3,3, 3 -, 3/3,67 ;27::0-0=6.

REGLAS DE DECISI,N

L7= 0<323,63= >2063207= 3 3>0=0, 3, 9:03,63 3 203=7 =3 :=, 3,

3=6=60>7= =7>07= - 0=620:?>0, 3 ;27::0-0 3 -7= 23=?-67=.

A-?,7= 3 3=67= >2063207= =3 ;-0>, =7:23 - 676-0 3 -= -632,60/=4

903,62= @?3 7627= =-7 603,3, 3, >?3,6 ?, =?:>7,?,67 3 3--=4 >7,=032,7

-= 23=6,63= ;3723=4 ;72 -7 ,7 @?3 3=68, ;23=3,63= 3, 3- ;27>3=7 3 679 3

3>0=07,3=.

R3;23=3,62397= ;72 R 0 -7= 23=?-67= =7>07= - -632,60/ 04 5 ;72 P

0 - 0=620:?>0, 3 ;27::0-0 >7223=;7,03,63 6-3= 23=?-67=4 3=67 3=4 3-

>7,?,67 3 /-723= @?3 23;23=3,6, -= ;27::0-03= 3 7>?223,>0 3 -7=

0<323,63= 3=67= 3 - ,6?2-3

R ;i+ ;i+ $ $ $ ;i+



1P ;1 ;! . . . ;,

L7= ;20,>0;-3= >2063207= 3 3>0=0, 39;-37= =7:23 6:-= 3 3>0=0, 3,9:03,63 3 203=7 =7,

C2063207 3- V-72 E=;327

E- 23=?-67 7 /-72 3=;327 ;2 - -632,60/ 04 @?3 ,762397= E [R 0\4/03,3 7 ;72

P72 -7 @?3 3- >2063207 3- /-72 3=;327 23=?-6 =32 O:=2/3=3 @?3 3=6 23- 3

3>0=0, 3= ?, 3,32-0>0, 3- >2063207 3 L;->3 3, - @?3 3=;23>3 3-

23@?0=067 3 3@?0;27::0-0 ;2 -7= 0<323,63= 3=67= 3 - ,6?2-3.

E<em#'o

P2603,7 3- 339;-7 0-?=6260/7 3 3>0=0, :7 203=74 - =0?03,63 6:-

9?3=62 3- 23=?-67 3=;327 ;2 > ?, 3 -= -632,60/=.

Criterio de' =a'or es#erado

E=67= 3 - N6?2-3

A'ternati=as 31 3! 3$ 3 E[R0\

a+ 11 ( 11 + 1.$

+ !# + 11 11.&

a4 + 11 1 11 (.(

Pro&a&i'idades

.! .! .# .1

L -632,60/ ;609 =3, 3- >2063207 3- /-72 3=;327 =32 !4 ;?3= ;27;72>07, 3- 98J097 3 -7= /-723= 3=;327=.

D) CRITERIO DE M.NIMA >ARIAN?A CON MEDIA ACOTADA: P2

- ?60-0>0, 3 3=63 >2063207 =3 >7,=032, 3J>-?=0/93,63 -= -632,60/=

>?57 /-72 3=;327 E [R \ =3 9572 7 0?- @?3 ?, >7,=6,63 @?3 <0

;72 3- 3>0=72. P2 > ?, 3 -= -632,60/= 0 @?3 >?9;- 3=6 >7,0>0, =3



28363290, - /20, V [R 0\ 3 =?= 23=?-67=4 5 =3 =3-3>>07, - @?3

;23=3,63 93,72 /20,4 3 3=6 <729 =3 >7,=0?3 - 3-3>>0, 3 ?,

-632,60/ >7, ;7> /20:0-0 3, =?= 23=?-67= 5 @?3 ;27;72>07,4 ;72

6290,7 93074 ?, 23=?-67 ,7 39=07 ;3@?37. E, 23=?93,4 3- >2063207 3

9,09 /20, >7, 930 >76 3= 3- =0?03,63

E<em#'o

P2603,7 3- 339;-7 0-?=6260/7 3 3>0=0, :7 203=74 - =0?03,63 6:-

9?3=62 3- 23=?-67 3=;327 5 =? /20, ;2 > ?, 3 -=

-632,60/=.

CRITERIO DE M.NIMA >ARIAN?A CON MEDIA ACOTADA

E=67= 3 - N6?2-3

A-632,60/= 31 3! 3$ 3 E[R0\ V

1 11 ( 11 + 1.$ 1.!1

! + !# + 11 11.& #.1

$ + 11 1 11 (.( 1.(

P27::0-03= .! .! .# .1

S0 3- 3>0=72 =3-3>>07, ?, /-72 1 ;2 - >7,=6,63 K4 @?32 3J>-?0 3- ;27>3=7

3 3>0=0, - -632,60/ $4 @?3 3= - @?3 ;7=33 93,72 /20,. EJ>-?0 =64 -

3-3>>0, ;609 >7223=;7,3 - -632,60/ 14 ;?3= 3= - @?3 ;7=33 93,72 /20,

3,623 -= @?3 >?9;-3, - >7,0>0, E [R 0\



21E) CRITERIO DEL >ALOR ESPERADO: E- /-72 3=;327 3 ?, >>0, 3=

3- 23672,7 ;279307 ;7,327 3 -7= 9-60;-3= 23=?-67= 0;7660>7= 3 3=

>>0,. I9;-0> 6262 3/3,67= ,0>7= >797 =0 <?32, ?7= 9?>= /3>3=.

S3 :?=> 9J0902 3- :3,3<0>07 3=;327 7 90,0902 3- >7=67 3=;327. S3

=?;7,3 @?3 3- ;27>30903,67 3 3>0=0, =3 23;063 ?, ,9327 =?<0>03,6393,63

2,3 3 /3>3=. L 3=;32, 09;-0> @?3 - 90=9 3>0=0, 3:32

23;3602=3 ?, ,9327 =?<0>03,6393,63 2,3 3 /3>3= ,63= 3 7:63,32 3- /-72

,367 >->?-7 ;72 - <29?- 3 3=;32,. C7, > >>0,4 9?-60;-0@?3 -

;27::0-0 5 3- :3,3<0>07 5 -?37 =?93 3-0 3- ,9327 98= 2,3 5

7;63 3= >>0,. : 23?3 3- 23=?-67 ;72 <0-4 > =3-3>>07,3 3- ,9327

98= 2,3 5 6793 3= >>0,.

C(@5)

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L7= 3=67= 98= ;27::-3= 3 - ,6?2-3 ;27;07 ;2 3>0=07,3= ,7

23;36060/=

6793 3- 3=67 3 - ,6?2-3 @?3 603,3 - ;27::0-0 98= -6

279; -7= 39;63= 2:0622093,634

: 3, 3= >7-?9,4 3-0 - >>0, @?3 603,3 3- 9572 :3,3<0>074 3,

,?3=627 339;-7 ,?920>74 3- >23>0903,67 603,3 ?, >,>3 3- 4

;72 3=7 3:397= >79;22 >>07,3=.

F9 P:%D!DA DE (P(%U"!DAD E#PE%ADA ;P(E9*

>7,<0?23 ?, 9620 3 :3,3<0>07= 3 - ;20 679,7 3- ,9327 98=

-67 3 -= >7-?9,= >7223=;7,03,63= -7= 3=67= 3 - ,6?2-3

097=4 - 5 2=63-3 677= -7= ,9327= 3 3= >7-?9,4 - J0.



22

: ;2 > >>0,4 9?-60;-0@?3 - ;27::0-0 5 -= ;20=4 -?37

2?3-= > >>0,4

> =3-3>>07,3 - >>0, >7, 3- 98= ;3@?37

C8->?-7 3- /-72 3=;327 3 - 0,<729>0, ;32<3>6 /30;

E- /30; ,7= 5? >7,=0322 3- /-72 @?3 603,3, -= ;32=7,= 0,<729= ;72 339;-743- 397,074 @?3 =7, -= ?3= 3 - 0,<729>0, ;32<3>6. R3>?323 @?3 3- /30; P73.

6793 3- :3,3<0>07 98J097 3 > 3=67 3 - ,6?2-34

: 9?-60;-0@?3 > ?,7 ;72 - ;27::0-0 3 @?3 7>?22 3=3 3=67 3 - ,6?2-3 5-?37 =93-7=4

V30; 14 :3,3<0>07 3=;327 14 ^ +4# 14(. V320<0@?3 =0 - ;37 /30;

P72 -7 6,674 =0 - 0,<729>0, >?3=6 98= 3- 1.( 3 - 0,/32=0, ,7 - >79;23. P72 339;-74 =0 ?=63 / 0,/32602 1.4 3- 98J097 @?3 3:328 ;2 ;72 - 0,<729>0,@?3 >79;23 =328 3 [1. ] 14(\ 1.(.

Matri* de 0enei"ios de PrdidaC 4 CM

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2+T77= -7= 3=67= 3 - ,6?2-3 603,3, 0?- ;27::0-0. C797 ,7 = , =7:23 -,6?2-34 677 3= 0?-93,63 ;27::-3 L;->3

;2 > 3=67 3 - ,6?2-3 ;7, ?, ;27::0-0 0?- 3= 3>024 ;27::0-0 ;-,

: 9?-60;-0@?3 > ,9327 ;72 - ;27::0-04

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0onos 4!#1!

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> A <0-= 3 >?2=7= 3 >>0, 5 >79;-363 - >7-?9, B3,3<0>07 E=;3274

E-0 3- ,9327 98J097 3, P=7 >4 5 7;63 3=3 >?2=7 3 >>0,.

5$ r&o' de De"isiones y Dia!rama de In'uen"ia

E- 82:7- 3 3>0=07,3= 3= ?, 23;23=3,6>0, >27,7-0> 3- ;27>3=7 3 3>0=0,4

930,63 ?, 23 @?3 ?60-0 7= 60;7= 3 ,77= -7= ,77= 3 3>0=0,4 23;23=3,67= ;72 9307 3 ?, <729 >?2 3- ,77 3 3-3>>0,4 5 -7= ,77= 3 3=67= 3 -,6?2-34 23;23=3,67= ;72 >2>?-7= 3- ,77 3 ;27::0-0.P2 -7= ,77= 3

;27::0-0 =323=3 3 @?3 -= ;27::0-03= 3, 67= -= 29= =-03,63= =?93,?,7. C->?-3 -7= :3,3<0>07= 3=;327= 23627>303,7 3, 3- 82:7-4 >793,,7 ;72 -323> 5 62:,7 >0 - 0@?032.

S3 ;?33 3>02 3,67,>3= @?3 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=0, 3= ?, 029 @?3 23;23=3,6, 3,

<729 =3>?3,>0- >7,0>07,3= 5 >>07,3= 9?3=62 @? >7,0>07,3= =3 >7,=032, 3, ;20932 -?24 3, =3?,7 -?2 5 = =?>3=0/93,63. E=63 9677 ;329063 97=622 -23->0, @?3 3J0=63 3,623 > >7,0>0, 5 3- 2?;7 3 >>07,3= ;3290=0:-3= =7>07>7, 3--.

U, 82:7- 3 3>0=0, =02/3 ;2 973-2 <?,>07,3= 0=>236=4 3, -= @?3 3- 7:360/7 3=363290,2 3- /-72 >79:0,7 3 ?, >7,?,67 3 /20:-3=4 5 :=8,7=3 3, 3- /-72 3> ?, 3 3--=4 363290,2 - >>0, =32 679.

L7= 82:7-3= 3 3>0=0, =7, ,729-93,63 >7,=62?07= ;2602 3 - 3=>20;>0, 3 -

,2260/ 3 ?, ;27:-39. E--7= ;27/33, ?, /0=0, 28<0> 3 - 679 3 3>0=0,,3>3=204 3=;3>0<0>, -= /20:-3= @?3 =7, 3/-?=4 @? >>07,3= 3:3, =32 679=



2,5 3- 723, 3, - >?- - 679 3 3>0=0, =328 3<3>6?. C /3 @?3 =3 33>?6 ?,82:7- 3 3>0=0,4 =7-7 ?, >90,7 =328 =3?07 3;3,03,7 3- /-72 >6?- 3 -/20:-3 3/-?.

S3 23>7903, 3- ?=7 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=0, >?,7 3- ,9327 3 >>07,3= 3= ;3@?37 5

,7 =7, ;7=0:-3= 67= -= >79:0,>07,3=.

/so de %r&o'es de"isiones

E- 3=227--7 3 82:7-3= 3 3>0=0, :3,3<0>07 ,-0=6 3, 7= <729=. P209327 @?36774 - ,3>3=0 3 3=>20:02 >7,0>07,3= 5 >>07,3= --3/, -7= ,-0=6= 03,60<0>2 3 9,32 <729- -= 3>0=07,3= @?3 >6?-93,63 3:3, 6792=3. D3 3=6 <7294 3=0<>0- ;2 3--7= ;=2 ;72 -67 >?-@?032 36; 3- ;27>3=7 3 3>0=0,4 =0, 09;7262 @?33=63 3;3, 3 /20:-3= >?,60660/= 7 >?-0660/=. L7= 82:7-3= 69:0, 7:-0, -7=,-0=6= >7,=0322 - >7,=3>?3,>0 3 -= 3>0=07,3=.

S3 397=627 @?3 -7= 82:7-3= 3 3>0=0, =7, 3<0>>3= >?,7 3= ,3>3=207 3=>20:02 ;27:-39= >7, 98= 3 ?, 093,=0, 7 >7,0>0,. T9:0, =7, 60-3= ;2 03,60<0>2 -7= 23@?320903,67= 3 67= >260>7= @?3 273, - ;27>3=7 3 3>0=0,4 3= 3>024 -7=82:7-3= 0,0>, -7= >7,?,67= 3 67= @?3 - 323,>0 23@?0323 ;2 <729?-2 3>0=07,3=7 6792 >>07,3=. E- ,-0=6 3:3 03,60<0>2 5 3-:722 ?, -0=6 3 677= -7= 67=?60-07= 3, 3- ;27>3=7 3 3>0=0,4 ?,@?3 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=0, ,7 9?3=62 677 -7=

67=.S0 -7= 82:7-3= 3 3>0=0, =3 >7,=62?53, 3=;?= 3 >79;-362 3- ,8-0=0= 3 <-?7 367=4 3,67,>3= 3= ;7=0:-3 @?3 -7= 67= >260>7= =3 3,>?3,623, 3<0,07= 3, 3-0>>07,207 3 67= 3- >?- 3=>20:3 -7= 67= ?60-07= ;72 3- =0=639 5 7,3 =339;-3,. S0 ,0>93,63 =3 ?=, 82:7-3= 3 3>0=07,3=4 3,67,>3= 3- ,-0=6 3:3 63,32 - >3263 3 03,60<0>2 >7, ;23>0=0, > 67 ,3>3=207 ;2 6792 - 3>0=0,.

L7= 82:7-3= 3 3>0=0, ,7 =039;23 =7, - 9372 322903,6 ;2 3- ,8-0=0= 33>0=07,3=. E- 82:7- 3 3>0=07,3= 3 ?, =0=639 >79;-37 >7, 9?>= =3>?3,>0= 3

;=7= 5 >79:0,>07,3= 3 >7,0>07,3= ;?33 63,32 ?, 697 >7,=032:-3. E- 2,,9327 3 29= @?3 ;3263,3>3, /20= 6253>6720= >7,=606?53 98= ?, ;27:-39 @?3?, 5? ;2 3- ,8-0=0=. E, 3=67= >=7= -7= ,-0=6= >7223, 3- 203=7 3 ,7 363290,2 @? ;7-60>= 7 3=62630= 3 - 39;23= =7, - ? ;2 - 679 3 3>0=07,3=3=;3><0>=. C?,7 ;23>3, 3=67= ;27:-39=4 3,67,>3= 3= 9793,67 3 >7,=0322 -=6:-= 3 3>0=0,

U=63 ;?33 090,2=3 3- >7,?>02 3 =? >7>34 3- >793,2 3, 3- ;03 3- 82:7- 3 -3>0=0, 5 3- 62=-2=3 - 323> -7 -27 3 -= 290<0>>07,3=. E, >,77 >?27 ?=63 603,3 >7,627-4 ;?33 6792 ?, 3>0=0,4 5 /?3-6 - 2?3 3

=? >7>3. E, > ,77 3- >2>?-7 - =372 F726?, =?93 3- >7,627- - 2?34 5 ?=633= 09;763,63.



2.

A >7,60,?>0, =3 0,0> ?, 3=>20;>0, ;=7 ;=7 3 >97 >7,=62?02 ?, 82:7- 33>0=07,3=

1 D0:?3 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=07,3= ?=,7 >?27= ;2 23;23=3,62 -= 3>0=07,3= 5>2>?-7= ;2 23;23=3,62 - 0,>3260?9:23.

! E/-3 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=07,3=4 ;2 /320<0>2 @?3 =3 , 0,>-?07 677= -7= 23=?-67= ;7=0:-3=.

$ C->?-3 -7= /-723= 3- 82:7- 62:,7 3, 23627>3=74 3- -7 323>7 - 0@?0327.

C->?-3 -7= /-723= 3 -7= ,77= 3 23=?-67 0,>03267 9?-60;-0>,7 3- /-72 3 -7=23=?-67= ;72 =? ;27::0-0 3= 3>024 -7= /-723= 3=;327=.

P7397= >->?-2 3- /-72 3 ?, ,77 3- 82:7- >?,7 63,397= 3- /-72 3 677= -7=,77= @?3 =0?3,. E- /-72 3 ?, ,77 3 3-3>>0, 3= 3- /-72 98= -67 3 677= -7=,77= @?3 -3 =0?3, 0,930693,63. E- /-72 3 ?, ,77 3 ;27::0-0 3= 3- /-72 3=;327 3 -7= /-723= 3 -7= ,77= @?3 -3 =0?3,4 ?=,7 - ;27::0-0 3 -7= 2>7=.R3627>303,7 3, 3- 82:7-4 3=3 -= 29= >0 - 24 =3 ;?33 >->?-2 3- /-72 3677= -7= ,77=4 0,>-?0 - 2 3- 82:7-. A- ;7,32 3=67= 23=?-67= ,?920>7= 3, 3-82:7- 3 3>0=07,3= 7:63,397= >797 23=?-67 3- =0?03,63 28<0>7

C797 ;?33 =32 7:=32/7 3, 3- 339;-7 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=07,3=4 - 3=>20;>0, 3 -=29= 5 ,?7= 3- ;27:-39 3 3>0=07,3= =3>?3,>0-3= ,729-93,63 =3 >3 :=6,63>79;-0>7. E, >0326= 7>=07,3= 3= 93,7= 0<>0- 0:?2 3- 82:7- 3 6- <729 @?3

;23=32/3 -= 23->07,3= @?3 23-93,63 9,3, -= 3>0=07,3=. L ,3>3=0 ;72 9,63,32 - /-0>0,4 5 3- 28;07 0,>2393,67 3, >79;-30 @?3 ?=?-93,63 ;27/03,3

3 -7= ?=7= -0:32-3= 3 -= 3=62?>6?2= 23>?2=0/=4 , ;27/0=67 3- ;27>3=7 3 3>0=07,3= ;2 3=>20:02 7627=. L 2, ;2 3=6 >79;-30 3= @?3 3- >6?- 93>,0=97



2/>79;?6>07,- @?3 =7- ,-02 3- 82:7-4 3=6 3,>2,7 023>693,63 3,627 3 -7=82:7-3= 5 -= 29=.

L= ;27::0-03= 5 /-723= 23@?3207= ;2 >->?-2 -7= /-723= 3=;327= 3-= =0?03,63= 29= 3=68, 3J;23=93,63 3<0,07= 3, > ,?7.L7= D029= 3 I,<-?3,>0 69:0, =7, ?60-07= ;2 3- 3=227--7 3973-7= 3 3>0=0, 5 >797 ?, -632,60/ 3 23;23=3,6>0, 28<0> 3 82:7-3=3 3>0=0,.F0,-93,634 3- 82:7- 3 3>0=0, 5 3- 029 3 0,<-?3,>0 ;27;72>07,,9677= 3 679= 3 3>0=07,3= 3<3>60/= ;72@?3 3--7=C-293,63 23- 3- ;27:-394 ;72 -7 6,67 67= -= 7;>07,3= ;?33, =32 >7,=032=.

N7= ;329063, 9;-0 93,63 ,-02 -= ;7=0:-3= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3 ?, 3>0=0,.P27;72>07,, ?, 3=@?39 ;2 >?,60<0>2 -7= /-723= 3-7= 23=?-67= 5 -=

;27::0-03= ;2 -722 -7= 90=97=. N7= 5?, 6792 93723= 3>0=07,3= :== 3, - 0,<729>0, 3J0=63,634 =>797 69:0, >32 93723= 0/0,,=.

P27::0-03= P7=6320723=

S3 ;?33 ;3,=2 @?3 ,7 :=6 3 ?, -,903,67 ;2 >7,7>32 =?= >2>632=60>= >7973= 3- >=7 3- 7 >27 3, 6- >=7 =3 ;?33 >7,=3?02 9572 0,<729>0, -,,7

,?3/93,63 3- 7. S?;7,97= @?3 3- 90=97 7 -,7 =-0 ?, = 3 ,?3/74 ;72 -7 6,67 - ;27::0-0 3 @?3 /?3-/ 7>?2202 0>7 3/3,67 /202 3, ;27;72>0, ->,60 3 /3>3= @?3 3=63 7>?220.

P72 -7 6,67 - ;27::0-0 >7,?,6 ;2 @?3 ?, 3/3,67 =3 23;06 ;2 3=63 >=7 3= ;260>?-2 3= 3 .$!#4 72 :03, ;2 >->?-2 - ;27::0-0 3 @?3 =3 3- ;20932 7- ;27::0-0 @?3 603,3 3- = 3, 3- ;20932 7 =328 0?- - ;27::0-0 920,->7,?,6 3- ;209327 3,623 - =?9 3 - ;27::0-0 3 9:7= 3/3,67= 3= 3>02

6$ TOMA DE DECISIONES 0A1O INCERTID/M0REE, -= 7>=07,3= 7,3 ,7 ;?33, =0,2=3 ;27::0-03= -7= 3/3,67=

;7=0:-3=4 - 72 3 6792 ?, 3>0=0,4 =3 --9 toma de de"isiones &a<oin"ertidum&re. S3 := 3, - 3J;3203,>0 3 - ;32=7, @?3 603,3 @?3 6792 -3>0=0, 5 =3 ;23=3,6 >?,7 ,7 =3 ;?33 ;233>02 3- <?6?27 3, <?,>0, 3 -=3J;3203,>0= ;== ,729-93,63 / =7>07 >7, 9?>= /20:-3=0,>7,627-:-3=. E, 3=63 60;7 3 3>0=07,3= ,7 =3 >7,7>3 >797 ;?33, /202 70,632>6?2 -= 0<323,63= /20:-3= 3- ;27:-39 ;72 -7 @?3 5 @?3 ;-,632 -=0<323,63= -632,60/= ;2 - =7-?>0,.



20

EJ0=63, 623= >2063207= -72 3 /-722 -7= 23=?-67= 3?, 3>0=0, 3, >7,0>07,3= 3 0,>3260?9:23

• Criterio MAXIMIN T9:0, --97 C2063207 W-4 >7,=0=63 3, 3-302 @?3--3=62630 @?3 9J090>3 3- ;372 3 -7= 23=?-67= ;7=0:-3=. E=62 =7>07 ?, ;32=7, ;3=090=6 3 0,63,62 ;27;72>07,2 3- 9572 ,0/3- 3 =3?20

;7=0:-3.

• Criterio MAXIMAX =3, 3=63 >2063207 :2 @?3 7;62 ;72 @?3-- 3=62630@?3 9J090>3 3- 9372 3 -7= 23=?-67= ;7=0:-3=. T9:0, =3 --9 >20632077;6090=6 ;72@?3 3= 3- @?3 ?=2 ?, ;32=7, 7;6090=6.

• Criterio de la frustración mínima Y @?3 - 9572 3 -= ;32=7,= ,7 =7,

3J623993,63 7;6090=6= ,0 ;3=090=6=4 3=63 >2063207 3=6:-3>3 @?3 5 @?3723,2 -= 3=62630= 5 3=6:-3>32 0<323,>0 3,623 3- 23=?-67 7:63,07 5 3-9572 ;7=0:-3 >7, > ;7=0:-3 =06?>0,4 3=>703,7 - 3=62630 @?3 90,090>33=63 23=?-67.

T792 3>0=07,3= =039;23 3= >79;-0>74 =7:23 677 >?,7 ,7 =3 0=;7,3 =?<0>03,630,<729>0, ;2 ;732 6792-= >7, - 9572 =3?20 ;7=0:-3. P72 3=74 ,63= 36792 >?-@?032 3>0=0, 5 98= 3, @?3--= 3>0=07,3= 09;726,63= 3, -= @?3 63 ?3=3- ,37>07 3:3= ;22 5 ,-02 -= -632,60/=. P327 774 23>?32 @?3 - ;3723>0=0, 3= - @?3 ,7 =3 679.

8$ TOMA DE DECISISONES 0A1O CONDICIONES DE CONLICTO$

DEINICI,N DE CONLICTO E- >7,<-0>67 3= ?, ;27>3=7 @?3 =3 7200,

>?,7 ?, ;32=7, 3,603,3 @?3 762 <3>67 7 3=68 ;?,67 3 <3>62

-?,7= 3 =?= 7:360/7= 7 0,6323=3=4 69:0, =3 ;?33 3<0,02 >797 ?, -?>

3J;23= 3,623 7= 7 98= ;263= 0,6323;3,03,63= @?3 ;32>0:3, @?3 =?=

7:360/7= =7, 0,>79;60:-3= 5 =?= >79;3,=>07,3= =7, 23?>0=.



2• E, -7= >7,<-0>67=

S?23, P23=07,3= 7;?3=6= ;27>33,63= 3 <?3,63= 0=60,6=

S3 679, 3>0=07,3= 3 9,32 0,0/0?- 5 3J;32093,6, ?, >7,<-0>67

;=0>7-0>7 >?,7 23=?-6, 62>60/= 0/32== 7;>07,3= 7 >?,7 ,0,?, -7 3=. S3 679, 3>0=07,3= 3,623 ;32=7,= 7 2?;7= 5 =3 >23 3- >7,<-0>67 3- 2?;7.

• Toma de de"isiones &a<o "on'i"to$

S7, >=7= 3 3>0=07,3= :7 0,>3260?9:23 7,3 398= 3J0=63 ?, 7;7,3,63. E=67@?0323 3>02 @?3 ,7 =-7 =3 3=>7,7>3, -= >7,=3>?3,>0= 3 -7= 3/3,67= <?6?27=4 =0,7@?3 3=68 3 ;72 9307 - 0,<-?3,>0 3 ?, ;32=7, 3, 7;7=0>0,4 >797 ;72 339;-74 3,>?-@?032 60;7 3 ,37>074 7,3 =039;23 / 3J0=602 >79;363,>0.

E=6 3= - =06?>0, 6;0> 3, >?-@?032 >79;363,>0 :0=:7-4 <6:7-4 ;@?324 -7=,37>07= 5 - ?322.

E, 3- 92>7 6320>74 3=67= =3 --9, ?37= 5 6372= 3 ?37=.

• In"ertidum&re:

A- 0?- @?3 >7, 3- 203=74 -7= 3>0=723= 3, 9?>= 7>=07,3= =3 3,<23,6, 3>0=07,3= 3, -= @?3 ,7 ;?33, 3<3>6?2 =?;7=0>07,3= =7:23 -= >7,0>07,3= <?6?2= 3,-= @?3 =3 3=227--28, -7= >?2=7=

3 >>0, 3-307=. N0 =0@?032 3= ;7=0:-3 =0,2

;27::0-03= 27,:-3=

0>7= =?>3=7= <?6?27=. E, 3=67= >=7= - 3>0=0,4398= 3 ;72 >2063207=

;7-60>7= 5 3>7,90>7=4 =3 /3 7203,6 ;72 -7203,6>0, ;=0>7-0> 3- 3>0=72.



2

Con"'usi3n

E, >7,>-?=0,4 - 679 3 3>0=07,3= =3 ;23=3,6 3, 677 9793,67 3, ,?3=62= /0=4>?,7 3:97= =3-3>>07,2 3,623 /20= 7;>07,3= 7 >90,7=4 5 3=63 ;27>3=7 =3 /

;23=3,62 9?>7 98= ;2 ?, ,-0=6 3 =0=639=4 5 @?3 ;2 23-02 ?, =0=6394 7970<0>2 322723= 3,627;= @?3 3,>?3,623 3, 3=67=4 / 63,32 @?3 7;62 ;72 - <72998= 3<0> 3 23=7-/32-74 63,03,7 3, >?3,64 6,67 -= ,3>3=03= @?3 63,4 >797

67= -= ;263= @?3 -7 >7,=606?53,.

A398=4 - 3<0>>0 5 3<0>03,>0 3, 6792 - 3>0=07, @?3 - <0,- / =32 - >3264 5=3 3, ?, =0=6394 7 >?-@?032 ;27:-39 @?3 =3 ,7= ;23=3,634 =3 <729 3, - 7:360/05 >-20 @?3 ,7= ;?3, 97=622 -7= 67= 7 - 0,<729>0, @?3 =3 603,34 ;72@?3 =0 =3>7,7>3 :03, -7 @?3 =3 3=68 23-0,74 ,7 /97= 63,32 0,>7,/3,03,63= @?3 =3,

;32?0>0-3=.

U, G323,63 603,3 @?3 <90-0202=3 >7, 3- >02>?067 :8=0>7 3 679 3 -= 3>0=07,3= 5=?= 0,2303,63=. U, /3 23>7,7>07= 3=67= 0,2303,63= :8=0>7=4 3:3 ;23=62=363,>0, - >28>632 3 @?03, 679 - 3>0=0,4 6,67 0,0/0?-93,63 >797 3, 2?;7.D3:07 @?3 - 9572 3 -= 3>0=07,3= 603,3, 3<3>67 =7:23 - 3,634 3- G323,63 ,7

;?33 0,722 - 0,<-?3,>0 3 -= 23->07,3= ?9,= 3, ?, 3>0=0,4 3=;3>0-93,63>?,7 =3 =3-3>>07, ?, 6>,0> ;2 6792-. L 23;23=3,6>0, 3, 029 3 ?,

;27:-39 7 ;?33 6792 0<323,63= <729= 5 ;?33 =32 ?, 5? 0,/-?:-3 ;223?,02 5 97=622 3- ;27:-39 3, ;260>?-2 7 -7= ;2893627= 3 - 3>0=0,. U,>7,7>0903,67 :8=0>7 3 -= 6372= 3 -= ;27::0-03= 5 3 - 3=6=60> 5?28 3, -

;23=3,6>0, 28<0> 3 3=6 0,<729>0,.S0, 39:274 ?, /3 @?3 =3 5 ;27>3=7 67 - 0,<729>0, 5 - 90=97 6039;7

>79;23,07 >?8-3= =7, -7= -20--7= :8=0>7= ;2 - >7,=62?>>0, 3 - 679 33>0=07,3=4 , =3 23@?0323 ?, 0,2303,63 98= ;2 @?3 ?, G323,63 6793 -= 3>0=07,3=

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+8>326=. L ;32=7, @?3 ,7 3=33 >72232 203=7= ,?,> 63,28 J067 >797 G323,63. U,G323,63 3:3 63,32 3- :?3, ?0>07 ;2 =:32 @? 6,6 0,<729>0, 3:3 23>7324 -0,63-03,>0 ;2 02002 - 0,<729>0, 54 -7 98= 09;726,63 3 6774 3- /-72 ;2 6792 - 3>0=0, @?3 =3 23@?0323 >?,7 =6 >7,--3/ ?, 203=7. L >?-0 ;32=7,- 3-/-72 ;2 >3;62 - 23=;7,=:0-0 3 ?, 3>0=0, =3 =6 :?3, 7 9- =3;2 -= ;32=7,= 720,20= 3 @?03,3= 679, 3>0=07,3= 3J>3-3,63=.

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http://www.monografias.com/trabajos15/llave-exito/llave-exito.shtml

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Monografia- Teoria de Las Decisiones