PowerPoint Presentation · 2019-10-11 · TRADITIONAL RETAILING PREDOMINANT 99.5% STORE-BASED. 9 RETAIL MARKET Emerging Retail Market 02. 10 Q3 2019 Market Update Phnom Penh Existing

Q3 2019PHNOM PENH MARKET UPDATE

11th

October 2019

Rosewood Hotel, Phnom Penh

CONTENTS

1

2

3

Country Overview

The Future of Retail

2

Retail Market

C O U N T R Y

O V E R V I E W

Emerging Economy

01

3

4 Q3 2019 Market Update

Cambodia Populat ion Growth

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

1962 1980 1994 1996 1998 2004 2008 2013 2019

Millions

CAMBODIA POPULATION Y-O-Y

AVERAGE GROWTH RATE

1.2%

LAOS PDR

1.5%

VIETNAM

1%

THAILAND

0.5%

Source: General Population Census of the Kingdom of Cambodia 2019


Cambodia GDP Growth

Source: World Bank, 2019

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Percenta

ge (%

)

Cambodia Thailand Vietnam

AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AT 7.2% OVER

THE COURSE OF THE LAST 8 YEARS

CAMBODIA

7.2%

THAILAND

3.3%

VIETNAM

6.2%


Cambodia Tourism Growth

Source: Ministry of Tourism, 2018

2%

16%

15%

24%

17%

7%6%

5%

12%

11%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Thousands

Cambodia Growth Rate (%)

NATURAL

RESOURCES

RICH

CULTURE

INVESTOR

MAGNET

AVERAGE GROWTH RATE AT 13% OVER

THE COURSE OF THE LAST 9 YEARS


Cambodia Populat ion

URBAN HOUSEHOLDS MAKE UP

22%

Source: Euromonitor International, CEIC

YOUNG POPULATION

60% ARE 30 YEARS OLD & BELOW

USERS

2017

4.8mil

2018

6.8mil


Cambodia Retai l Sales

Source: Euromonitor International, Oxford Economics

DISPOSABLE INCOME (REAL)

CAGR OF 7.2% FROM 2018 TO 2023

RISE OF MIDDLE-INCOME & UPPER-MIDDLE-INCOME

TO FUEL RETAIL CONSUMPTION

TRADITIONAL RETAILING PREDOMINANT

99.5% STORE-BASED

9

R E TA I L

M A R K E T

Emerging Retail Market

02


Phnom Penh Exis t ing Retai l Supply

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q3

2019

Net Leasable

A

rea (SQ

M)

Shopping Mall Shopping Centre

Community Mall Retail Podium

Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019

THE OLYMPIA MALL

THE NEWEST SHOPPING MALL

TO JOIN THE MARKET IN

Q2

15,000SQM

CIRCA 300,000SQM OF

RETAIL NLA SUPPLY AS OF

Q3 2019

11 Q3 2019 Market Updates

Phnom Penh Future Retai l Supply

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

Net Leasable

A

rea (SQ

M)

Shopping Mall Shopping Centre

Community Mall Retail Podium


SHOPPING MALL

REMAINS THE TREND

496,857 SQM

BY 2024

RETAIL PODIUM PICKS UP THE

SPEED DUE TO THE TREND OF

MIXED USE DEVELOPMENT

143,956 SQM

BY 2024


0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

45.00%

Phnom Penh Retai l Vacancy Rate


VACANCY RATE REMAINS AT

10% LOW SINCE 2018

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO

THE VACANCY RATE IN

RESPONSE TO THE HIGH

UPCOMING STOCK?

9.74%

AS OF Q3 2019

?


$30.5$28.5

$23.7

$26.5

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

Prime

Shopping Mall

Prime Retail

Podium

Community

Mall

Prime High

Street


Phnom Penh Retai l Rental Rate

WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO

THE RENTAL RATE IN

RESPONSE TO THE HIGH

UPCOMING STOCK

STABLE RENTSAS OF Q3 2019

?

14

T H E F U T U R E

O F R E TA I L ?

03

Q3 2019 Market Updates

AUGMENTED

REALITYVIRTUAL REALITYINTERNET

OF THINGS

3D PRINTING

LOGISTICS

ARTIFICIAL

INTELLIGENCE

AUTOMATION

PREDICTIVE

ANALYTICS

ROBOTICSBLOCKCHAIN

15

Technology: f r iend or foe?


Customization to

become the new

loyalty

The sharing economy

to be a commonplace

Physical point of

transaction will

shrink

What, where and

how you want is

the norm



Focus on customer

emotions &

experience

The power of

prediction

Building brand

ambassadors and

product experts

Focus on robotics

and automation



Reimagining RETAIL

The focus will shift from store

to experience, with in-store

devices used to inspire customers

In-store warehousing may shrink with

smart inventory

management

19

T H A N K YO U

Q3 2019PHNOM PENH MARKET UPDATE

11th

October 2019

Rosewood Hotel, Phnom Penh

CONTENTS

1

2

3

4

5

OVERVIEW

CONDOMINIUM

OFFICE

LANDED RESIDENTIAL

RETAIL


Q3 2019 PROJECTION

INVESTMENT VALUE

PROJECTED TO REACH $2.3B

$4.5 Billion OF INVESTMENT VALUE

FROM JAN – JULY 2019

APPROX. 2,956 PROJECTS

ESTIMATED OVER THE

FIRST 3 QUARTERS OF 2019

2,477 PROJECTS APPROVED

FROM JAN – JULY 2019

INVESTMENT INTO CONSTRUCTION

Source: Ministry of Land Management, Urban Planning and Construction

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

20

16

Q2

20

16

Q3

20

16

Q4

20

17

Q1

20

17

Q2

20

17

Q3

20

17

Q4

20

18

Q1

20

18

Q2

20

18

Q3

20

18

Q4

20

19

Q1

20

19

Q2

20

19

Q3

E

No.

of Pro

ject

s

Million U

SD

Construction Investment Value No. of Projects



Applicable

Applicable

Highly Applicable

Applicable in some corridors

Applicable

Tramway

Linear Metro

Monorail

LRT

AGT

APPLICABILITY STUDY

AGT IS HIGHLY APPLICABLE

AUTOMATED GUIDEWAY TRANSIT - AGT


Depot Spurline:

4.8km

Airport Spurline: 2.6km

Corridor 4: 10.5km

Corridor 1: 9.6km

Corridor 2: 11.8km

CORRIDOR 3 BEING PRIORITISED

Length: 19 km

Type: AGT

Study Status: Completed in Feb-2019

Stations: 20 (2 underground stations)

Construction: 2020

Duration: 36 months

Expected Completion: 2023

Value: USD1,843 million

Study by: JICA

Awaiting Government Approval

AUTOMATED GUIDEWAY TRANSIT - AGT


APART FROM THE Q - O - Q TRENDS


WHAT HAS BEEN DONE/PLANNED ?


WHAT HAS BEEN DONE/PLANNED ?

• T H E P R E M I E R O R D E R E D T H E C R E A T I O N O F A C O M M I T T E E F O R T H E I N S P E C T I O N O F Q U A L I T Y I N B U I L D I N G S

• A P P R O X I M A T E L Y 3 0 0 C O N S T R U C T I O N P R O J E C T S H A V E B E E N R E V I E W E D

• C O N S T R U C T I O N B I L L P A S S E D

Q3 2019 Market Update29

CONDOMINIUM MARKET UPDATE

2

SUPPLY GROWTH

5.1% GROWTH Q-O-Q

45.30% GROWTH

2018 Q3 – 2019 Q3

22%

54%

24%

Affordable Mid-Range High-End


CONDOMINIUM DASHBOARD | Q3 2019

CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY NEW LAUNCHES COMPLETIONS

17,500

UNITS

9 NEW LAUNCHES

OVER 5,130 UNITS

INTRODUCED TO THE MARKET

OVER THE COURSE OF Q3

2019

1 COMPLETION

EQUIVALENT TO 850 UNITS

COMPLETED OVER THE

COURSE OF Q3 2019

+

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F

Affordable Mid-Range High-End % Change

17,500UNITS

1 PROJECT

Q3 COMPLETIONS

(850 UNITS)

SUPPLY

INCREASE Q-O-Q5.1%

CURRENT SUPPLY

Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019

CONDOMINIUM SUPPLY Q3 2019


KEY NEW CONDOMINIUM LAUNCHES» Q3 2019 «

M RESIDENCE AGILE SKY RESIDENCE MORGAN ENMAISON HUANGSHAN INTERNATIONAL

MORE THAN 5,100 UNITS LAUNCHEDOVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019

KEY NEW CONDOMINIUM LAUNCHES» Q3 2019 «

LA COZII TK

MORE THAN 5,100 UNITS LAUNCHEDOVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019

WEALTH MANSIONTIME SQUARE 3 CITYGEM CONDO

$1,250

$1,750

$2,250

$2,750

$3,250

$3,750

Q1

2016

Q2

2016

Q3

2016

Q4

2016

Q1

2017

Q2

2017

Q3

2017

Q4

2017

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

2018

Q1

2019

Q2

2019

Q3

2019

Affordable Mid-Range High-End

DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT

Q-O-Q FOR HIGH-END

SEGMENT1.9%

Q-O-Q CHANGES

2%

$1,531 $2,600 $3,190

AVERAGE PRICE PER SQM BY SEGMENT

UPWARD ADJUSTMENT

Q-O-Q FOR AFFORDABLE

SEGMENT

UPWARD ADJUSTMENT

Q-O-Q FOR MID-RANGE

SEGMENT1.2%


CONDOMINIUM SALE PR ICES


$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$0

$4

$8

$12

$16

$20

3BR 2BR 1BR Studio

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

Studio 1BR 2BR 3BR

Rental Range Per Month (High-End)

Average Rent Per Sqm

High-End Mid-Range

Rental Range Per Month (Mid-Range)

FOR HIGH-END SEGMENT

FOR MID-RANGE SEGMENT

14.61/SQM

12.0/SQM


RENTS BROADLY STABLE OVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019

CONDOMINIUM RENTS



LANDED RESIDENTIAL (BOREY) MARKET UPDATE

2


SEN SOK DISTRICT REMAINS THE TOP ATTRACTION FOR LANDED PROPERTY DEVELOPERS

0

10

20

30

40

50

Sen Sok Russey Keo Chbar Ampov Por Sen Chey Dangkor Mean Chey Chroy

Changvar

Chamkarmon Prek Pnov Daun Penh 7 Makara Toul Kork

Num

ber

of

Pro

jects

Existing Future


LANDED RES IDENTIAL , aka. BOREY


3%

9%

9%

11%

19%23%

26%

Sen Sok Russey Keo Mean Chey

Chroy Changvar Chbar Ampov Dangkor

Por Sen Chey

AVERAGE VALUE AND VALUE INCREASE BY HOUSE TYPE PHNOM PENH FUTURE BOREY SUPPLY

$101 $124

$217$266

$872

$0

$200

$400

$600

$800

$1,000

$1,200

$1,400

$1,600

$1,800

$2,000

Flat Linkhouse Shophouse Twin Villa Villa*Thousand US$

Price Range Average Price

1%

2%7%14%

10%



BOREY FUTURE SUPPLY & SALE PR ICES


OFFICEMARKET UPDATE

3

SQM (NLA)50%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

550,0002

00

8

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

19

F

20

20

F

Grade C Grade B Grade A Occupancy Rate

OCCUPANCY RATE

BY Q3 201985.58%

GRADE-C OFFICE SUPPLY

SAW AN INCREASE OF 2%

OF CENTRALLY OWNED OFFICE

SPACE BY Q3 2019

364,600 SQM


NEW CENTRALLY OWNED

PROJECTS ADDED TO THE

FUTURE STOCK EQUIVALENT

TO CIRCA 15,000SQM OF NLA.

3

CENTRALLY- OWNED OFFICE SUPPLY


CBRE Cambodia 22 Q3 2019 Market Update

$5.0

$10.0

$15.0

$20.0

$25.0

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 2019 Q2 2019 Q3 2029

Grade-B (CBD) Grade-B (NCBD) Grade-C (CBD) Grade-C (NCBD)

1%LESS THAN

0.73%


CENTRALLY- OWNED OFFICE RENTS


-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

20

18

20

19

F

20

20

F

20

21

F

20

22

F

Grade B Grade A

SQM (NLA)

CURRENT STRATA-TITLE SUPPLY59,678 SQM

NEW ANNOUNCEMENT

TIME SQUARE III

16,200 SQM


STRATA-T ITLE OFFICE SUPPLY


3

6

4

5

8

9

11

2

1. CHIEF TOWER

2. DOWNTOWN 93

3. ONE PARK

4. TK CENTRAL

5. FORTUNE TOWER

6. C5 OLYMPIA CITY

7. MARITIME TOWER

8. SOMA GROUP HQ

9. CHIP MONG BAK TOUK

10. THE GATEWAY

11. THE COMMUNE

12. THE POINT

13. VERSAILLES SQUARE

14. TIME SQUARE 3

9

10

Strata-title

12

1

713

CENTRALLY OWNED STRATA TITLE

14

MAP OF FUTURE OFFICE SUPPLY


RETAILMARKET UPDATE

4

5 NEW RETAIL PROJECTS ANNOUNCEDOVER THE COURSE OF Q3 2019

5 MORE RETAIL PROJECTS SET TO COMPLETE BY YEAR END 2019


THE POINT

SOVANNA SHOPPING CENTERTEMPORARILY CLOSED0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

800,000

900,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F

Shopping Mall Shopping Center Community Mall Retail Podium

NOW OPEN!!DECREASE IN TOTAL SUPPLY16.9%


RETAIL SUPPLY


$30.5$28.5

$24.5$26.5

$-

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

$70.00

Prime Shopping Mall Prime Retail Podium Community Mall Prime High Street

3.3%


* Prime quoted rents for ground and 1st floor space

STABLE

STABLE

STABLE

RENTS BROADLY

STABLE ACROSS THREE

RETAIL FORMATS

COMMUNITY MALL RENTS

SAW AN UPLIFT OF 3.3%

Q-O-Q, UP FROM $23.7/SQM

IN Q2 2019

RETAIL RENTS


0.00%

5.00%

10.00%

15.00%

20.00%

25.00%

30.00%

35.00%

40.00%

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1

2019

Q2

2019

Q3

2019

UPWARD ADJUSTMENT

OF VACANCY RATE

1.86%

CURRENT

VACANCY RATE

9.7%

RETAIL VACANCY RATE

© 2019 Advantage Property Services Co., Ltd, trading as CBRE Cambodia, part of the CBRE affiliate network. All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, includingprojections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independentlyassessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offerto sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without prior expresswritten permission of CBRE. Any unauthorized publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss, damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.

Q3 2019 Market Updates

CBRE Cambodia | +855 23 964 099 | [email protected] | www.cbre.com.kh

T H A N K Y O U !

For more info, please contact:

James HodgeDirectorE: [email protected]: +855 89 333 722

Thida Ann

Managing Director

E: [email protected]

M: +855 89 777 308

Kinkesa Kim

Manager

E: [email protected]

M: +855 95 777 582

Documents

PowerPoint Presentation · 2019-10-11 · TRADITIONAL RETAILING PREDOMINANT 99.5% STORE-BASED. 9 RETAIL MARKET Emerging Retail Market 02. 10 Q3 2019 Market Update Phnom Penh Existing