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Knight Frank 萊坊 SHANGHAI Retail market report 上海商铺报告 Research retail 商铺 Q3 2013 2013 年第三季度 研究报告

SHANGHAI Retail market report - Microsoft · 2014-04-02 · SHANGHAI Retail market report ... project comprises office towers, serviced apartments, hotel and retail a total retail

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Page 1: SHANGHAI Retail market report - Microsoft · 2014-04-02 · SHANGHAI Retail market report ... project comprises office towers, serviced apartments, hotel and retail a total retail

Knight Frank 萊坊

SHANGHAI Retail

market report

上海商铺报告

Research

retail

商铺

Q3 2013

2013 年第三季度

研究报告

Page 2: SHANGHAI Retail market report - Microsoft · 2014-04-02 · SHANGHAI Retail market report ... project comprises office towers, serviced apartments, hotel and retail a total retail

2

Q3 2013

shanghai retail Quarterly

New shopping mall supply reached

513,000 sqm in the third quarter,

three times higher than the

previous quarter and hit a new high.

New malls included the

soft-opened Jing’an Kerry Centre

Phase Two (73,000 sqm) and the

iapm Mall (120,000 sqm) as well as

the officially-opened Global Harbor

(320,000 sqm).

Retail rents in Shanghai started to

rise notably again in the third

quarter after remaining almost

unchanged in the first two quarters

of 2013. In the third quarter,

ground-floor retail rents in prime

areas increased 2.7% quarter on

quarter to RMB57.1 per sqm per

day.

With a huge amount of local

residents and maturing ancillary

facilities, large-scale shopping malls

in non-prime retail areas are under

rapid development and witness fast

rental growth. According to Knight

Frank’s statistics, ground-floor rents

in non-prime retail areas increased

by 4.1% quarter on quarter, 1.4

percentage points higher than that

in prime retail areas.

In the third quarter, the retail

property investment market

remained stable, with a number of

deals under negotiation and one

shopping mall acquisition deal

recorded. Touch Mall in Xuhui

District was acquired by Harvest

Real Estate Investments (HREI) for a

total consideration of RMB1.7

billion.

Outlook

Looking forward, the Shanghai

retail market is set to become

relatively quiet after experiencing a

supply surge in the third quarter. In

prime retail areas, besides Lane

Crawford in Shanghai Times Square,

no new shopping malls are set to

open in the fourth quarter.

However, in the coming 12 months,

new retail malls scheduled for

completion include River Mall

Phase Two (260,000 sqm), Hopson

International Plaza (166,000 sqm)

and Golden Hongqiao International

Centre (86,000 sqm). The first outlet

in Pudong, Florentia Village, is set

to open in the third quarter of 2014.

In 2013, most new supply is

concentrated in prime areas, whilst

more new retail malls will be

launched in emerging areas in 2014.

Meanwhile, an increasing number

of retailers continue to launch their

stores in Shanghai, demonstrating

their sustained confidence in

consumer demand. The fourth

Apple Store in Shanghai will open

in iapm Mall this October. The first

H.E. by Mango flagship store in

China will open in Jing’an Kerry

Centre. In the fourth quarter, retail

rents are estimated to remain

stable and the vacancy rate is set to

increase slightly. In the coming 12

months, retail rents will remain on

an upward trend with an annual

growth rate of approximately 10%.

Highlights

In the fourth quarter,

retail rents are

estimated to remain

stable and the vacancy

rate is set to increase

slightly. In the coming

12 months, retail rents

will remain on an

upward trend with an

annual growth rate of

approximately 10%.

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KnightFrank.com.cn

The officially-opened

Global Harbor has replaced

Super Brand Mall to

become the largest

shopping mall in Shanghai.

shopping mall in the downtown, a

mid to upper-end shopping centre

Global Harbor was officially opened in

Putuo District with an occupancy rate

of 90%. The total retail GFA of Global

Harbor is approximately 320,000 sqm

and existing tenants include luxury

brands such as Burberry, Chanel and

Dior as well as mid-priced brands

such as Novo, Muji, H&M, Gap, Uniqlo

and C&A. Level four of Global Haror is

public cultural space featuring

museum, art gallery and cultural

display. Global Harbor has replaced

Super Brand Mall to become the

largest shopping mall in Shanghai.

In the third quarter, international

retailers continued to expand in

Shanghai. Zara Home landed its first

store in Nanjing West Road in Jing’an

District. Global stylish fashion and art

concept store 10 Corso Como opened

its first boutique store in Wheelock

Square. Mulberry opened its fourth

store in China in iapm Mall, which is

Mulberry’s largest flagship store in

China. The world’s largest Uniqlo store

with a retail floor area of over 8,000

sqm opened in Shanghai on 30

September. As the largest Ikea store in

Asia, Ikea Baoshan Store was launched

on 15 August, boasting a retail floor

area of 55,032 sqm. On 1 August,

H&M launched its first menswear

store in China together with its first

MONKI store in Shanghai in Global

Harbor.

Due to the opening of large shopping

malls, new shopping mall supply

reached 513,000 sqm in the third

quarter, three times higher than the

previous quarter and hit a new high.

New malls included the soft-opened

Jing’an Kerry Centre Phase Two

(73,000 sqm) and iapm Mall (120,000

sqm) as well as the officially-opened

Global Harbor (320,000 sqm).

Developed by Kerry Properties,

Jing’an Kerry Centre Phase Two had its

soft opening this July. The mixed-use

project comprises office towers,

serviced apartments, hotel and retail

space. With a total retail gross floor

area (GFA) of 73,000 sqm, Jing’an

Kerry Centre Phase Two is the largest

shopping mall project in the Nanjing

West Road retail area. Currently,

confirmed apparel tenants include

Paul Smith, Michael Kors, Emporio

Armani and Hugo Boss, while Food

and Beverage (F&B) tenants include

Element Fresh, Simply Thai, Jade

Garden and Din Tai Fung. Two

supermarkets including Ole and Life

by City Shop are situated in the

basement. In the Huaihai Middle Road

retail area, iapm Mall started trial

operation on 5 August. Developed by

Sun Hung Kai Properties, the project

has two Grade-A office buildings,

luxury serviced apartments and the

iapm mall. With a retail GFA of

120,000 sqm, iapm Mall has a number

of internationally renowned brands,

including Hermès, Prada and Gucci

and will feature Shanghai’s first Gucci

Café. An IMAX Theatre is situated in

Palace Cinema on levels five and six.

Besides the two soft-opened luxury

Supply and Demand

Page 4: SHANGHAI Retail market report - Microsoft · 2014-04-02 · SHANGHAI Retail market report ... project comprises office towers, serviced apartments, hotel and retail a total retail

4

Q3 2013

shanghai retail Quarterly

Retail rents in Shanghai started to rise

again in the third quarter after

remaining almost unchanged in the first

two quarters of 2013. In the third

quarter, ground-floor retail rents in

prime areas increased 2.7% quarter on

quarter to RMB57.1 per sqm per day.

Ground-floor shopping mall rents

increased 2.4%, whilst street-shop rents

increased 3.1% compared with the

previous quarter. F&B retailers are

actively seeking for new retail space in

Shanghai. In September, Sun Life Food

Court leased 5,000 retail space in Citic

Plaza Shenhong on Sichuan North Road

at RMB4 per sq m per day. Influenced

by the new supply, the prime retail

vacancy rate went up slightly by 0.3

percentage point to 8.8% in the third

quarter.

Some non-prime

shopping malls recorded

quarter-on-quarter growth

of over 5% in rents.

Shanghai ground-floor retail rents in core areas (Q1 2006 - Q3 2013)

With a huge amount of local residents

and ancillary facilities getting mature,

large-scale shopping malls in

non-prime retail areas are in rapid

development and witness fast-paced

rental growth. According to Knight

Frank’s statistics, ground floor rent in

non-prime retail areas increased by

4.1% quarter on quarter, 1.4

percentage points higher than that in

prime retail areas. Some non-prime

shopping malls including Kerry

Parkside, Life Hub@Jinqiao, Life

Hub@Daning and Super Ocean Sky

Mall recorded quarter-on-quarter

growth of over 5% in rents.

Rent

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

RMB/sqm net/day

Source: Knight Frank Research

Page 5: SHANGHAI Retail market report - Microsoft · 2014-04-02 · SHANGHAI Retail market report ... project comprises office towers, serviced apartments, hotel and retail a total retail

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KnightFrank.com.cn

In July, Touch Mall in Xuhui

District was acquired by

Harvest Real Estate

Investments for a total

consideration of RMB1.7

billion or a unit price of

RMB30,000 per sqm.

In the third quarter, the retail property

investment market remained stable,

with a number of deals under

negotiation and one shopping mall

acquisition deal recorded. In July,

Touch Mall in Xuhui District was

acquired by Harvest Real Estate

Investments (HREI) for a total

consideration of RMB1.7 billion or a

unit price of RMB30,000 per sqm.

Located in Xuhui Binjiang Area, Touch

Mall opened on 1 June 2013.

Developed by Cha Tai Group, Touch

Mall has a total retail GFA of 55,000 sq

m with committed tenants including

Uniqlo, Ochirly and Westa Cinema.

HREI is a real estate fund formed by

Harvest Fund Management and

Britain-based Grosvenor Fund

Management. As a joint venture, HREI

aims to invest in real estate markets in

China. This transaction marks HREI’s

first investment in China.

Some retailers are optimistic about

the Shanghai market, transforming

from pure leasing strategy to buying

properties for self-use. In August,

Shanghai Waigaoqiao Free Trade

Zone Development Co., Ltd

announced that French sporting

goods retailer Decathlon acquired

Sunland Plot D4-4 for a total

consideration of RMB600 million to

build up their headquarters. The

acquired property is situated to a

green park to the north, Sunland

International Project D4-5 to the east,

Zhouhai Road to the south and

Lansong Road to the west. Currently,

Decathlon owns six retail stores in

China and the proportion of

self-owned stores will increase to one

third in the future. Boosted by the

development of Shanghai Pilot Free

Trade Zone, Sunland Waigaoqiao is

positioned as another international

community after the Gubei, Green

City and Lianyang communities and is

scheduled for completion in 2017.

The Decathlon headquarters project is

located in Sunland International Area

of Sunland Commercial and Business

Zone with at least ten corporate

headquarters to move in. The whole

Sunland Commercial and Business

Zone will have 750,000 sqm of urban

commercial complex.

INVESTMENT

Page 6: SHANGHAI Retail market report - Microsoft · 2014-04-02 · SHANGHAI Retail market report ... project comprises office towers, serviced apartments, hotel and retail a total retail

6

Q3 2013

shanghai retail Quarterly

Selected retail leasing transactions, Q3 2013

District Building Floor Trade Area

(sq m)

Rent

(RMB/sq m/day)

Huangpu Richgate

Basement

1st floor

unit

Personal

care 209 7.4

Hongkou Citic Plaza

Shenhong

Basement

1st-2

nd

floors units

F&B 5,000 4.0

Pudong Super Brand Mall Level 1 unit Apparel 1,000 25.0

Jing’an Park Place

Basement

2nd

floor

unit

F&B 200 20.0

Huangpu Plaza 336 Levels 1-4

units Apparel 5,830 15.7

Source: Knight Frank Research

Selected retail sales transactions, Q3 2013

District Building Floor Area

(sq m)

Total price

(RMB million)

Price

(RMB/sq m)

Xuhui The Hysun Level 1 unit 483.0 40.1 82,976

Zhabei

Chamtime

Corporate

Avenue

Level 1 unit 433.5 29.2 67,277

Putuo Tianhui Plaza Level 1 unit 150.4 10.2 67,826

Hongkou Citic Rainbow

Garden Level 1 unit 155.7 6.7 43,273

Pudong Powerlong City

Plaza Level 1 unit 175.2 6.9 39,392

Source: Knight Frank Research / Shanghai Real Estate Trading Centre

Page 7: SHANGHAI Retail market report - Microsoft · 2014-04-02 · SHANGHAI Retail market report ... project comprises office towers, serviced apartments, hotel and retail a total retail

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KnightFrank.com.cn

第三季度上海新开商场面积达到

513,000 平方米,为前一季度的近三倍,

季度供应达到历史峰值。新开商场包

括仍在试营业期的静安嘉里中心二期

(73,000 平方米)和环贸 iapm

(120,000 平方米),以及已经正式开

业的月星环球港(320,000 平方米)。

零售租金在连续维稳两个季度后,于

第三季度出现明显增长。第三季度,

上海主要商圈首层租金环比增长 2.7%

至每天每平方米人民币 57.1 元。

随着近年来人口的大量导入,区域内

配套设施逐步成熟,非核心商圈内大

型购物中心的发展迅猛,租金也随之

稳步提高。据莱坊统计,第三季度,

非核心商圈首层租金的环比增速为

4.1%,比核心商圈首层租金的环比增

速高出了 1.4 个百分点。

第三季度,零售物业投资市场保持稳

定,数宗交易在积极谈判中,录得一

宗购物中心整栋成交案例。位于徐汇

区的正大乐城购物中心被嘉实房地产

投资公司(简称“嘉实地产”)收购,

总价为人民币 17 亿元。

焦点

零售租金将在第四季度保持

平稳,空置率略有升高,未

来一年内,零售租金将保持

升势,预计年增幅约在10%

左右。

2013年第三季度

上海商铺 季刊

未来展望

第四季度市场供应趋缓,租金保持平

稳。展望未来,供应方面,上海零售市

场在经历了第三季度的供应高峰以后

将回归平静,第四季度除了大上海时代

广场的连卡佛百货试营业外,各主要商

圈未见有新商场计划落成。而在未来 12

个月内,即将开业的新商场项目包括世

博源二期(260,000 平方米)、合生国

际广场(166,000 平方米)和金虹桥国

际中心(86,000 平方米)。浦东首家奥

特莱斯——佛罗伦萨小镇也计划于明

年第三季度开业。与 2013 年集中在核

心区域的新供应相比较,2014 年的新

开商场将主要集中在非核心区域。零售

商方面,未来选址上海开店的零售商有

增无减,显示出对零售需求的信心。上

海第四家苹果店(Apple Store)已选址

在淮海中路的环贸 iapm 商场,预计将

在今年 10 月份开业。Mango 旗下男装

品牌系列 H.E.by MANGO 也即将登陆

中国,在上海静安嘉里中心开设首家旗

舰店。零售租金将在第四季度保持平

稳,空置率略有升高,未来一年内,零

售租金将保持升势,预计年增幅约在

10%左右。

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KnightFrank.com.cn

由于有大体量的新商场开业,第三季度

上海新开商场面积达到513,000平方

米,为前一季度的近三倍,季度供应达

到历史峰值。新开商场包括仍在试营业

期的静安嘉里中心二期(73,000平方

米)和环贸iapm(120,000平方米),

以及已经正式开业的月星环球港

(320,000平方米)。静安嘉里中心二

期由嘉里集团开发,于七月份开始试营

业,包括办公楼、酒店式公寓、酒店及

商场等,其中商业体量约为73,000平方

米,成为南京西路商圈体量最大的购物

中心项目。目前确认入驻的服饰类商户

有保罗史密斯(Paul Smith)、迈克

高仕( Michael Kors)、安普里奥•阿

玛尼(Emporio Armani)、雨果博斯

(Hugo Boss),餐饮类商户包括新元

素(Element Fresh)、天泰(Simply

Thai)、翠园(Jade Garden)、鼎泰

丰(Din Tai Fung)等,地下一楼设有

两间超市,分别是Ole和Life by City

Shop。而在淮海中路商圈,环贸iapm

于8月5日开始试营业,由新鸿基地产开

发,整个综合性项目包括两栋写字楼、

高档酒店式公寓和iapm商场。其中

iapm商场的面积约占120,000平方米,

汇集了爱马仕(Hermès)、普拉达

(Prada) 以及古驰( Gucci)等多个

国际奢侈时尚品牌,还将开设上海第一

间古驰(Gucci)咖啡店。在商场5楼和

6楼的百丽宫影城中配备了IMAX影院。

正式开业的月星环球港取代上

海正大广场,成为上海规模最

大的购物中心。

除了上述两家在市中心试营业的高端

购物中心,另有一家中高端购物中心

——月星环球港在普陀区正式开业,入

住率达到90%左右。月星环球港商业总

面积约在320,000平方米左右,入驻商

户不仅有奢侈品牌巴宝莉(Burberry),

香奈尔(Chanel)和迪奥(Dior)等,

还包括价格亲民的品牌NOVO、无印良

品、海恩斯莫里斯(H&M)、盖普(GAP)、

优衣库(Uniqlo)、西雅衣家(C&A)

等,在四楼设有文化区,包括博物馆、

美术馆和文化展区。此外,月星环球港

取代上海正大广场,成为上海规模最大

的购物中心。

国际零售商继续在上海扩展店面。飒拉

家饰(Zara Home)上海首家门店正式

登陆静安区南京西路。全球生活潮牌名

店10 Corso Como的首家精品店在会德

丰广场开业。玛百莉(Mulberry)在上

海环贸iapm购物中心开设中国第四间

专卖店,这也是该品牌在中国的最大旗

舰店。优衣库(Uniqlo)全球最大旗舰店

于9月30日在上海开幕,卖场面积超过

8,000平方米。宜家(Ikea)宝山店于8月

15日正式开业,宝山商场是目前宜家家

居在亚洲开设的最大商场,营业面积达

55,032平方米。海恩斯莫里斯(H&M)

中国首家男装门店及旗下MONKI上海

首家店选址上海月星环球港,于8月1

日开业。

供应与需求

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KnightFrank.com.cn

零售租金在连续维稳两个季度后,于第

三季度出现明显增长。第三季度,上海

主要商圈首层租金环比增长2.7%至每

天每平方米人民币57.1元。其中,购物

中心首层租金环比增长2.4%,而街铺租

金环比增长3.1%。餐饮品牌亦积极在上

海寻求铺面。今年9月份,阳光小镇美

食广场在位于四川北路的中信泰富申

虹广场租赁了5,000平方米的店面,租

金约在每平方米每天人民币4元左右。

上海优质商场空置率的变动不大,受新

供应的影响,第三季度空置率环比略升

0.3个百分点至8.8%。

第三季度,多家位于非核心商

圈的购物中心租金均录得环比

5%左右的增长。

上海主要商圈首层租金,2006年第一季度至2013年第三季度

随着近年来人口的大量导入,区域内配

套设施逐步成熟,非核心商圈内大型购

物中心的发展迅猛,租金也随之稳步提

高。据莱坊统计,第三季度,非核心商

圈首层租金的环比增速为4.1%,比核心

商圈首层租金的环比增速高出了1.4个

百分点。其中,包括浦东嘉里城、金桥

国际商业广场、大宁国际商业广场和仲

盛世界商城在内的多家位于非核心商

圈的购物中心,第三季度的租金均录得

环比5%左右的增长。

租金

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2Q3

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

数据来源:莱坊研究部

人民币/平方米净面积/天

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10

2013年第三季度

上海商铺 季刊

第三季度,零售物业投资市场保持稳

定,数宗交易在积极谈判中,录得一

宗购物中心整栋成交案例。7月份,

位于徐汇区的正大乐城购物中心被

嘉实房地产投资公司(简称“嘉实地

产”)收购,总价为人民币 17 亿元,

折合成交均价约为每平方米 30,000

元。位于徐汇滨江区域的购物中心正

大乐城于 6 月 1 日开始营业,由正

大集团及绿地集团共同开发,总建筑

面积 55,000 平方米,目前入住租户

包括优衣库、欧时力和华士达东方影

城。嘉实地产是由嘉实基金和高富诺

基金联合投资成立的房地产投资公

司,作为一支私募地产基金,专注于

大中华区的房地产投资。此次收购正

大乐城是该基金在中国达成的首项

交易。

七月份,位于徐汇区的正大乐城

购物中心被嘉实房地产投资公司

(简称“嘉实地产”)收购,总价

为人民币17亿元,折合成交均价

约为每平方米30,000元。

另外,也有部分零售商看好上海市

场,由纯租赁策略转向买地自建的方

式。今年 8月,上海外高桥保税区开

发股份有限公司发布公告称法国运

动品牌迪卡侬(Decathlon)将斥资人

民币 6 亿元在森兰 D4-4 地块建设总

部项目。地块北临绿地、东临 D4-5

森兰国际项目、南临洲海路、西临兰

嵩路。目前,迪卡侬在全国范围内拥

有六家自建商场,而未来迪卡侬在中

国的自建商场比例将达到三分之一。

在自贸区概念的推动下,森兰外高桥

规划成为继古北、碧云、联洋之后又

一国际社区,将于 2017 年完成整体

开发建设。此次迪卡侬总部项目位于

森兰商业商务区中的森兰国际板块,

森兰国际板块将迎来至少 10 家企业

总部入驻,而整个森兰商业商务区总

规划面积为 75 万平方米。

投资

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11

KnightFrank.com.cn

上海主要商铺租赁成交,2013 年第三季度

区域 项目 楼层 业态 面积

(平方米)

租金

(人民币/平方米/天)

黄浦 华府天地 地下一层单元 个人护理 209 7.4

虹口 中信申虹广场 地下一至二层

单元 餐饮 5,000 4.0

浦东 正大广场 一层单元 服饰 1,000 25.0

静安 越洋广场 地下二层单元 餐饮 200 20.0

黄浦 华旭国际大厦 一至四层单元 服饰 5,830 15.7

数据来源:莱坊研究部

上海主要商铺买卖成交,2013 年第三季度

区域 项目 楼层 面积

(平方米)

总价

(人民币百万元)

成交价格

(人民币/平方米)

徐汇 海珀府邸 一层单元 483.0 40.1 82,976

闸北 长泰企业天地 一层单元 433.5 29.2 67,277

普陀 天汇广场 一层单元 150.4 10.2 67,826

虹口 中信虹港名庭 一层单元 155.7 6.7 43,273

浦东 宝龙城市广场 一层单元 175.2 6.9 39,392

数据来源:莱坊研究部 / 上海房地产交易中心

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12

2013年第三季度

上海商铺 季刊

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