Technical Analysis by Nattawat 070913 1

3

1. (Technical Analysis)

2. (Fundamental Analysis)

3. (Quantitative Analysis)

2

(Technical Analysis)

Price Pattern

Elliots wave

trends

Indicators Candlestick

Fibbonanci

Candle Sticks

Volume Analysis

3

2 2

4

Technical :

1. 2. 3. 4.

5.

6. Mr.Market

5

Timeframe

5 A B C D F

Timeframe

A Candlesticks 1-3

B C Candlesticks Bar charts 1-2 3-6

D F Candlesticks Bar charts 1-2 3-6 15 60 10

6

A B C 2

3 B D

F E A B C D F

7

A

Timeframe Fundflow

Fundflow NVDR A NET buy/sell

MSCI Index

8

A

BBL SCB KBANK PTTGC SCC BANPU ( B ) PTT PTTEP TOP ADVANC

20% 5

Fundflow

Fundflow

9

SET Index A

SET Index A

10

A

20 Fundflow Net Buy/sell

Fundflow A

A 11

A 5-10% 2-4 20%

2

A 3

12

4-6

Candlestick

19

A

new high

27

A

6 New high 6

Set SET Sideway SET 15 3 2 5

30

DW

32

B C 5

Candlestick 20% 5 20 C

50 B

33

B C B C

B C

50

B 20 C

20%

34

B

20-30%

3-5 New High

50% 2 3-5

B

35

50

37

Sideway

38

Sideway

40

C B

C B

3

1 20 50

2-3

42

C B C

C

C

Lets Profit Run Stop Loss 43

50

44

20

50

45

C

2 C 2 20 50 C 3 Candlestick

20 20

50 50 2 C 20 Panic

50

46

B C

Candlestick

47

B 50 B

50 C 20 50

C B

48

B C

49

B C Cut Loss

Short against Port

B C

B C SET Index

2 1-2

2

50

2 7 1 1

52

(Trends)

53

TFEX SBL 50% 100% 20% 20% 100%

54

20

40

60

80

Low

New high 55

New Low Higher High

62

Rebound

Short against Port Technical Rebound Rebound

Price Pattern , Hamonic Trading Fibonanci number Short against Port

63

Stop Loss 3

LetProfit Run Follow Buy

bid Sideway

67

Sideway

68

Sideway

Sideway

Sideway

Sideway 3 Sideway

Sideway 3-6 Sideway

69

Sideway C D

70

1-2 10 Downtrend line

3 1

Follow Buy Let Profit Run Stop

Loss

71

SET

74

22

2556 1464.72

77

(Moving Average )

N SMA

SMAt = 1/N (Pt+..........+Pt-N+1) P =

T = t

N =

81

1-3

Save

82

Source:Bisnews83

Dead Cross

Gold Cross

Source:Bisnews

2

84

59%

34%

36%

43%

59%

34%

36%

43%

85

(Multiple Moving Average:MMA)

6 3 , 5, 8 , 10 , 12 , 15 6 30 , 35 , 40 , 45 , 50 , 60

686.59 , 689.73 , 692.11 , 693.76 , 694.75 , 694.99 86

20 , 50 , 200 SME , EMA

200

200

25

75 200 Vol 15 RSI 25 45

87

BC C BC B C BC 20 50 C 20 50

B A D F 100 200 C D 10

88

ICHIMOKU KINKO chart

89

ICHIMOKU KINKO chart 5

1. Tenkan-sen 2. Kijun-sen 3. Chikou Span 4. Senkon Span A 5. Senkon Span B

90


1. Tenkan-sen (9 period high + 9 period low)/2( 9 9 ) 2 9

91


2. Kijun-sen (26 period high + 26 period low)/2( 26 26 ) 2 26

93


3. Chikou Span Close plotted 26 period in the past ( 26 ) Shirt 26

95


4. Senkon Span A (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2 9 26 2

5. Senkon Span B (52 period high + 52 period low) / 2 52 52 2

96

3 B C Volume

vol

Vol 15 Vol Vol Vol

Vol

VOL Vol

97

B C 3

99

B C

Price Pattern B C C B B Sideway

100

B 2

higher Low new low

101

B C

102

D

103

Candlestick

106

Candlesticks

107

Candlestick

108

3 1. Bullish Candlestick

109

2. Bearish Candlestick

110

3. Doji

111

Candlestick 1-3

Gap

2-3

Rebound 1-3 Sideway

113

20

20

114

3-4

115

.2556

A BANK 2 A C D HOT

B B

117

D

118

Price Pattern

50:50

Candlesticks

Candlesticks

120

(PRICE PATTERN) 3

(REVERSAL TREND)

(CONTINUATION TREND)

(SIDEWAYS PATTERN)

121

(REVERSAL TREND)

(V FORMATION) (HEAD & SHOULDERS)

(DOUBLE/TRIPLE BOTTOMS & DOUBLE/TRIPLE TOPS)

(THE ROUNDING TURN) (BROADENING

TRIANGLE)122

V

(V-Bottom) V (V-Top)

V GAP Candle Sticks

3

3

(V FORMATION)

123

(HEAD & SHOULDERS bottom) (HEAD & SHOULDERS TOP)

3 (HEAD) (SHOULDERS) Head VOL

(NECKLINE) (NECKLINE)

124

(DOUBLE/TRIPLE BOTTOMS & DOUBLE/TRIPLE TOPS)

(DOUBLE TOPS) M 2 2

126

(DOUBLE BOTTOMS)

W (DOUBLE TOPS) (DOUBLE BOTTOMS) (NECKLINE) Follow Buy

128

(TRIPLE TOPS)

3

Divergent MACD RSI

3

3-6 130

(THE ROUNDING TURN) (ROUNDING BOTTOM)

2

133

(ROUNDING Top)

135

(GAP)

COMMON GAP

Gap Sideway

BREAKAWAY GAP

BREAKAWAY GAP

137

CONTINUATION/RUNAWAY GAP ()

EXHAUSTION GAP

GAP BREAKAWAY GAP CONTINUTION GAP

138

A

140

B

141

C

142

D

143

(CONTINUATION TREND)

2 FLAG PENNANT (FLAG) 2

BULLISH FLAG BEARISH FLAG

(PENNANT)

144

(BULLISH FLAG)

145

(BEARISH FLAG)

146

(PENNANT)

(PENNANT)

147

(SIDEWAYS PATTERN)

6 1-2 2 RECTANGLE TRIANGLE

1 (RECTANGLE) (SIDEWAYS) (SUPPORT LINE) (RESISTANCE LINE) 10-20%

148

2 SYMMETRICAL TRIANGLE

2

1. ASCENDING TRIANGLE

150

6

151

2 .DESCENDING Triangle

Sideway

152

A

158

B

159

C

160

D

161

D F

Candlestick Follow Buy PRICE Pattern 3 Price Pattern Fibonannci Harmonic Elliots Technical Indicators

163

D F Technical Analysis

1-2

Ticker

D Value Investor

164

D F

Let Profit Run 5 Stop Loss Stoploss 3%

165

SET

166

C D F

Follow Buy Follow Buy Follow Buy

2

167

D Candle/price pattern/trendline/ Volume

170

Jesse Livermore

1)

2) STOP LOSS

3) 4) Let Profit Run

5)

J.L.

171

Follow Buy

172

Follow Buy

Follow Buy

173

Follow Buy

Follow Buy

174

D F

Force sell

177

TFEX F

1 Position

2 Long position long Position Short Position

3

4 Long Position Short Position Short Position

179

5 TFEX Position

2 Position

3 TFEX TFEX

180

6 TFEX

Moving average

181

Trendline Price Pattern

Harmonic Patterns

Elliots Wave

Harmonic Elliots Wave

184

Price Pattern

186

Fibonacci

187

(Leonardo Pisano) (Leonardo Fibonacci) (Fibonacci)

0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233, ..., 2+3 =5

0.618 21/34 = 0.618

0.382 13/34 = 0.382

188

Fibonacci 0.236(23.6%) 0.382(38.2%) 0.500(50%) 0.618(61.8%) 0.764(76.4%) 1.000(100%) 1.318(131.8%) 1.618(161.8%) 2.618(261.8%) 4.236(423.6%)

2 5 22/7

189

14.6

23.6

33.3

38.2

41.4

50

58.6

61.8

66.7

76.4

85.4

90.0

94.4

100.0

105.6

109.2

114.6

123.6

138.2

166.7

176.4

185.4

190.2

194.4

223.6

261.8

276.4

285.4

294.4

361.8

376.4

385.6

423.6190

166.7% 1567

176.4 1658

138.2% 1340

D

191

Harmonic

192

Harmonic 6 Pattern

1. ABCD Pattern

2.Three Drive Pattern

3.Gartley Pattern

4.Crab Pattern

5.Bat Paatern

6.Butterfly Pattern

The Shark Pattern ,The Dragon Pattern193

The AB=CD Pattern

The Fibonacci numbers in the pattern must occur at specific points. BC must retrace to 0.618or 0.786. Of AB

This retracement sets up the BC projection that should converge at the 1.27 or 1.618. Of BC

It is important to note that a .618 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.618 BC projection.

A .786 retracement at the C point will result in a 1.27 projection.

195

ABCD Pattern 2 Bullish ABCD Bearish ABCD

2 .618 .786196

The Bat pattern

The Bat pattern is a precise harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2001.

The pattern incorporates the 0.886XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ).

The B point retracement must be less than a 0.618, preferably a 0.50 or 0.382 of the XA leg.

The Bat utilizes a minimum 1.618BC projection. In addition, the AB=CD pattern within the Bat is extended and usually requires a 1.27AB=CD calculation.

199

BC XA

BC AB

AB .382 0.50

CD 1.618 BC 2.618 CD

.886 XA

200

the Butterfly pattern

The structure of the Butterfly pattern was discovered by Bryce Gilmore. In my experience, I believe an Ideal Butterfly Pattern, which requires specific Fibonacci ratio to define the structure - including a mandatory 0.786 retracement of the XA leg as the B point - offers more precise Potential Reversal Zones (PRZ) and more significant trading opportunities.

the Butterfly pattern must include an AB=CD pattern to be a valid signal. Frequently, the AB=CD pattern will possess an extended CD leg that is 1.27 or 1.618 of the AB leg.

202

Although this is an important requirement for a valid trade signal, the most critical number in the pattern is the 1.27 XA leg. The XA calculation is usually complemented by an extreme (2.00, 2.24, 2.618) BC projection. These numbers create a specific Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ) that can yield powerful reversals, especially when the pattern is in all-time (new highs/new lows) price levels.

203

AB .786

BC XA

BC AB

CD 1.618 BC 2.618 BC

1.271.618 XA

204

The Crab is a Harmonic pattern

The Crab is a Harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2001. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg but employs an 0.886 retracement at the B point unlike the regular version that utilizes a 0.382-0.618 at the mid-point. The pattern requires a very small stop loss and usually volatile price action in the Potential Reversal Zone.

206

AB .618

XA

BC XA

BC AB

CD 2.24 BC 2.618 3.618 BC

1.271.618 XA

207

The Gartley pattern

The Gartley pattern was outlined by H.M. Gartley in his book Profits in the Stock Market, published in 1935. Although the pattern is named "The Gartley," the book did not discuss specific Fibonacci retracements! It was not until "The Harmonic Trader" was released that the specific retracements of the B point at a .618 and the D point at a .786 were assigned to the pattern.

There are others who have assigned Fibonacci retracements to this framework. However, they use a variety of Fibonacci numbers at the B and D points.

209

. Despite these variations, the Fibonacci retracements that yield the most reliable reversals are the .618 at the B point and the .786 at the D point. Furthermore, the pattern should possess a distinct AB=CD pattern that converges in the same area as the 0.786 XA retracement and the BC projection (either 1.27 or 1.618). The most critical aspect of the Gartley is the B point retracement, which must be at a 0.618 of the XA leg.

210

The Shark Pattern

The Dragon Pattern

213

Harmonic Elliots Wave

215

Elliots wave

218

ELLIOTS WAVE Elliot Wave ()

(Market Emotion Market Emotion

(Pattern and Rules) FIBO

2 Impulse phase Correction Phase

219

Elliots wave

Impuse Correction

220

12

4

3

5

A

B

C

222

12

4

3

5

A

B

C

1

2

4

3

5

1

2

3

4

5

A

B

C1

3

5

2

4

1

3

5

2

4

A

B

C

A

B

C

1

3

5

2

4

223

Hamonic Elliots Wave

1 2 A B C 4 5

1 A C 5 b 2 B 4 a c

A B C 3 5 3 A 5 B 3

C 5

224

(Corrective Wave) 2 B 4 a c 6

Zig-Zag : 5 - 3 - 5

Flat : 3 - 3 - 5

Irregular : 3 - 3 - 5

Horizontal Triangle : 5 ABCDE 3 - 3 - 3 - 3 - 3

Double Three : abc 2 x 2

Triple Three : abc 3 x 2 226

53

5 3

3

55

3

3

227

(Corrective Wave)

: Wave 4 Wave 1

4 1 "" Wave 2 Wave 4 Wave

2 a-b-c Wave 4 wave 2

Zig-Zag Flat Double Three 230

Impulse 5 3 5

231

Elliots Wave

PRICE OBJECTIVE 2 = < 0.382, 0.5, 0.618, 1.00 > 1(W1)

3(W3) = < 1.00, 1.618, 2.618 > 1(W1)

5 3 1

B = 0.50, 0.618 A

C = < 0.618, 1.00, 1.618 A 232

1. 5 3 5 fail

2. 3 161.8% 1 5 1

3. 3 161.8% 1 5

4. 4 50% 3 5 fail

5. 3 161.8% 1 2 261.8% 423.6%

233

5 Wedge

5

5

234

Elliots Wave

Elliots wave

235

Commodity Channel

Index (CCI)

Chaikin Money Flow

Elliot oscillator

Historical volatility

McClellan Oscillator

Money Flow Index

(MFI)

Negative Volume Index

(NVI)

Ect.

Technical Indicators

Moving Average

Convergence /Divergence

(MACD)

Exponential Moving

Average (EMA)

Relative Strength Index

(RSI)

Slow stochastic

Swing Index

Average Directional

Movement Index (ADX)

On Balance Volume

(OBV)

Parabolic SAR (pSAR)

Bollinger Bands

Williams %R

236

RSI : RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX

(RSI) (INTERNAL STRENGTH) 14 14 RSI

14 RSI RSI = 100 - 100

1+RS RS = 14 14

237

Relative Strength Index (RSI) J. Welles Wilder

70 Over Bought

30 Over Sold

RSI = 100 100

(1 + RS*) *RS =

RSI RS = 1 RSI RSI 50 () RSI 30 RSI RSI 28 45

RSI 0 100

238

RSI

267

242RSI 25

239

RSI Relative Strength IndexRSI 70 RSI 30

Over Bought

Over Sold

SET INDEX

Source:Bisnews

240

RSI

RSI 70 C D F

A B RSI 70 Divergence Day Week

1-3 25 45 RSI RSI 60 40

Rebound

241

A RSI 70-75 Candlesticks

A RSI 70 B RSI 75-80

Candlesticks C RSI 80-85

Candlesticks D F RSI 85-90

Candlesticks

242

RSI A

243

RSI B C

244

RSI D F

245

RSI

246

D F RSI 70

247

Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD)

MACD Line: (12-day EMA - 26-day EMA) Signal Line: 9-day EMA of MACD Line MACD Histogram: MACD Line - Signal Line

MACD(5,35,5) is more sensitive than MACD(12,26,9) and might be better suited for weekly charts.

248

MACD SET Index

MACD 0 MACD 0

Source:Bisnews 249

Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD)

MACD Signal MACD Signal

MACD 0 MACD 0

MACD Line: (12 EMA 26 EMA)Signal Line: 9 EMA MACD

()

250

0 0 Day Week Macd 0 3 confirm

3-5 Macd 0 3 confirm week

MACD Efinance D-macd

MACD

251

Documents

Technical Analysis by Nattawat 070913 1