18. : : 26.75 767,000 28,673 12 129,000 10,750 -17,923 -215,075
-264,363 -479,438 : PSR, . 2556 60,000 120,000 2) 2556 2556 1% HDD
IC SSD (Solid State Drive) Value added HDD 2557 k 25,000Number of
Tourists20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0: 25579
19. : 2557 2 AEC %y-y 15TH Export and Word GDP Growth TH Export
CH GDP US GDP indexWorld GDP EU GDP10 5 0 -5700000 600000 500000
400000 300000 200000 100000 01Q2003 3Q2003 1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005
3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007 3Q2007 1Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2009 3Q2009
1Q2010 3Q2010 1Q2011 3Q2011 1Q2012 3Q2012 1Q2013 3Q2013 1Q2014F
3Q2014F-10mn: 10% to GDPTH Current Account to GDP (%)8 6 4 2 0 -2
-4 1Q2003 3Q2003 1Q2004 3Q2004 1Q2005 3Q2005 1Q2006 3Q2006 1Q2007
3Q2007 1Q2008 3Q2008 1Q2009 3Q2009 1Q2010 3Q2010 1Q2011 3Q2011
1Q2012 3Q2012 1Q2013 3Q2013 1Q2014F 3Q2014F-6: 255710
20. 2557: QE QE - Base Case 2557 1550-1660 P/E 14-15 QE QE ()
1.7 .. 2553 12% 2 QE 2 .. 2554 27% 2-3 QE 3 .. 2556 24 % 4 255711:
Bisnews - QE 6.5% 2% 1 4
21. 2557: QE QE .. 2556 QE QE .. 2557 () QE .. Consensus
Bloomberg .. 2556 .. 2557 (.) 9 .. 2556 255712 - Best Case: 2556 -
Base Case: Downside 1260 - Worst Case: . . . Downside 1150 3 16 ./
2554 24 ./ 2555 25 ./ 3 2556
22. 2557: QE 2557 ./ ., Property Fund/REIT, Infrastructure Fund
37 ./ ./ CPTGF (9.8 ), TGGROWTH (5.5 ), SPCGIF (5.5 ) Trigger Fund
Morningstar Trigger Fund 22 .. 2.1 Trigger Trigger fundBt.mn 6,000
5,000SET index4,0001651-17003,0001601-1650 1551-16002,0001500-1550
1,000 0 1Q20142Q20143Q20144Q2014: Morningstar, PSR Trigger fund
255713 1500-1550 15511600 2 Earning Growth(% y-y) 2556E 2557E AGRI
118.31 5.00 FOOD -47.86 37.77 BANK 23.76 8.02 FIN 61.09 -1.56 AUTO
25.23 6.42 PETRO -1.24 14.00 STEEL 64.74 64.69 CONMAT 50.28 7.03
PROP 40.81 -4.59 ENERG -0.24 4.00 COMM 1.77 29.34 HELTH -17.97
14.27 MEDIA 12.30 11.61 TOUR 122.26 -15.80 TRANS -57.33 236.02
ETRON 17.38 -4.58 ICT 5.72 20.28 PST Universe 8.96 12.26 : PSR
Universe
23. 2557: QE 2557 QE - Base Case 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5%
-10%12.7% 7.5%Average market declines 3 out of 10Total
averageAverage market gains 7 out of 10 electionsYingluk
(2011)Samak (2007)Thaksin II (2005)Thaksin I (2001)Chavalit
(1996)Banharn (1995)Chuan I (1992)Suchinda (1992)Chatchai
(1988)Prem II (1986)-4.6%: PSR 255714 2557 Universe 147 85.53%
1550-1660 12.26% y-y P/E 14-15 (ROE = 15.19%, COE = 11.8-12%
Long-term growth = 9.15%)
24. 255762
25. : Global Recovery & Infrastructure Plays 1% 2556 QE AEC
2559 FOOD BANK PETRO PROP HELTH TOURISM TRANS ETRON AEC () MINT
(30.00), CPF (31.25) BBL (229.00) IVL (26.80) HEMRAJ (3.90) BH
(102.00), BGH (175.00) CENTEL (44.50) TTA (19.70) HANA (27.50), KCE
(26.00)AEONTS, BBL, BEC, GUNKUL, PTTEP, THCOM, ITD, AIT, LOXLEY,
SYNEX, SCC, SCB, KBANKEGCO, BBLAEONTS, BGH, CPF, GL, SCC, MAJOR,
KTB, SCBICT COMM 2557AH, AS, CPF, CCET, THCOM, BBLAS, STA, BBL,
KTB, SCB BANK CONMAT PROPAEONTS, CPF, EGCO, GLOW, RATCH, STANLY,
THCOM, BANPU, BAY, CK, BBL, KTB, SCB, TMBSCC, TK, AS, STA, BANPU,
IVL, APCS () KTB (25.00), BBL (229.00) SCC (510.00) CK (25.80), LPN
(20.84), SIRI (2.50), BLAND (2.37) ADVANC (273.00) LOXLEY (4.90):
PRS15AEONTS, PTTEP, STANLY, SCC, CPF, TUF, BJC, BBL, SCB
26. 2557 New High New Low : 1260, 1150 1600, 1880 ETI EMA-25
2556 1,260 1,600 1,260-1,600 1,260 1,150 1,600 Fibonacci 138.2%
2554 1880 255716
28. 2557 : SETFOODCPF: 24.00-22.00 37.00, 42.00 Cut loss 21.00
EMA-75 Modified Stochastic 9320.00 12,000, 13,600 Bullish 3-4 2556
Modified Stochastic 12,000 High 13,600 255718TUF: 55.00 80.00,
100.00 Cut loss 52.00 New High 2556 Speed line
29. 2557 : SETBANKKKP: 36.00 47.00, 56.00 Cut loss 34.00 RSI
Modified Stochastic Oversold 460.00 600.00, 700.00 Uptrend High 600
Trend line 700 255719TCAP: 30.00-28.00 41.00, 48.00 Cut loss 26.50
MACD Zero line 5 2556
30. 2557 : SETFINIFS: 2.40 3.20, 3.60 Cut loss 2.30 () MACD
Zero line RSI 3.20 1,360.00 1,800.00 MACD Zero line EMA- 25 1360
255720KTC: 30.00-28.00 46.00 Cut loss 26.50 EMA-25 RSI MACD Zero
line Bullish
31. 2557 : SETAUTOCWT: 1.40 2.50, 2.70 Cut loss 1.30 Modified
Stochastic Oversold RSI 440.00-420.00 560.00, 650.00 2554 Oversold
Uptrend line 650 560 255721TKT: 2.00 3.00 Cut loss 1.94 New High
5.05 2.00 Oversold Downside
32. 2557 : SETPETROIVL: 20.00-17.00 34.00, 40.00 Cut loss 16.00
() Downtrend EMA-75week MACD 880.00 1300.00, 1400.00 2556 MACD
Signal line 2554 255722PTTGC: 70.00 92.00 Cut loss 67.00 ( ) MACD
Signal line Zero line New High 92.00
33. 2557 : SETCONMATSCP: 6.25 14.00, 28.00 Cut loss 6.00 6.25
MACD Signal line Zero line 9,700, 9,000 12,000, 13,000 EMA-25
Fibonacci Fan 38.2% RSI 12,000 9,000 High 13,000 255723TPIPL: 10.30
18.00-20.00 Cut loss 10.00 Broadening Ascending Trendline
18.00-20.00