1

生产决策

中大

2011 年 5 月 7 日

你们需要决定的

价格

产量研发

设备投资

市场营销

MPI

价格策略 pric ing s trategy

大规模低价位战略

小规模高价位战略

中等规模中价格战

略

优势 更低的生产成本

更大的利润空间

低风险

目标

更大的销售量 足够的销售量 稳定的收入

关键合理定价 市场营销和

研发上的投入

战略的一贯性

案例 1 ：生产战略与产量 / 品种

王敬途

案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰 A M G 系列

高产

丰富

稀少

品种多样性

低产 产品数量

AB

C

D

个性化

改装车

•源于赛车运动

•擅长引擎改装和设计

•量产高性能汽车

•吻合奔驰气质，改进原有动力系统

AMG 系列介绍 :

案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰 A M G 系列

案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰 A M G 系列

S600厂方指导价： 259.8 万

S65AMG厂方指导价： 329.8万

案例：梅赛德斯 - 奔驰 A M G 系列

S600 S65AMG核心：“一人一机”

MPI(MESE Performance Index)

影响因素 权重留存收益 50%需求潜力 10%供应潜力 10%生产效率 10%

市场占有率 10%增长潜力 10%

MESE 六大步骤

选择定价方法选定最终价格分析竞争者成本、价格和提供物

确定需求 估计成本选择定价目标

Exercise 1: Price Strategy and Production

Make your decisions: --Price $_________ --Production _________ units

Supply Chain DesignBusiness Goals and Strategy

Business Requirements

Supply ChainRequirements

Supply Chain Design

Majority of a supply chain’s lifecycle costs are locked-in at the start.

Decisions

20%

Value

Source : AMR Research

Operational

Tactical

Strategic

80%

Supply Chain Design and

Optimization

Advanced Planning and Scheduling

Execution

MRP/ERP

Solutions

Such “up-front” decisions include:

Distribution network

Inventory Locations

Customization strategies—what and where to customize

Equipment (Vendor) Selection

Target customer service

In-house vs. contract Services

Processes

Manufacturing

Why Does Supply Network Design Matter?

14

Southwest Airlines

美国西南航空公司

案例 2

Financial PerformanceFinancial PerformanceStock Chart

美西南航空公司已连续 37 年保持了赢利

Market Share ...Market Share ...Year 2006 : Market Share

Company Overview...Company Overview...

major domestic airline that provides :…

♥ primarily short haul♥ high-frequency♥ point-to-point♥ low-fare service

Founded 1971Fleet size 472Destination 63Headquarters

Dallas, Texas

S o u t h w e s t A ir l in e s , Inc. (NYSE: LUV), is . . .

The third-largest airline in the world by number of passengers carried and the largest in the United States by number of passengers carried domestically.

VISION & mission ...VISION & mission ...Our

Vision Dedication to the highest quality of Customer Service delivered with a sense of warmth, friendliness, individual pride, and Company Spirit

Our Mission provide safe and comfortable air transportation

in commuter and short-haul markets, from close-in airports, at prices competitive with automobiles and buses and to involve customers and employees in the product and the process, making the airline a fun, profitable and quality experience.

Building Building Capable Organization .Capable Organization .

Staffing the Organization

Core Competencies and Competitive Capabilities

Matching the Organization Structure to Strategy

Southwest’sCapability

Core Competencies &Core Competencies &Competitive Capabilities Competitive Capabilities

♥ Operate one type of aircraft.♥ Make reservations and purchase tickets at the company’s website.♥ Tried to steer clear of congested airports, stressing instead serving

airports relatively near major metropolitan areas and in medium-sized cities.

♥ Using point-to-point scheduling of flights.♥ There is no reserved seat for each passenger.♥ No first class section, no fancy clubs at terminal and no meals.♥ No baggage transfer services to other carriers.♥ Convert from cloth to leather seats

Low Operating Cost

飞机的过站时间通常只有 25分钟

飞行员每月飞行时间 62 个小时，是联航和美洲公司飞行员工作时间的两倍。

平均每天每架起飞 7.2 次，每架飞机平均每天在空中飞行的时间大约为 12小时

Core Competencies &Core Competencies &Competitive Capabilities Competitive Capabilities

♥ Make sure passengers had a positive, fun flying experience.♥ Presenting a happy face to passengers and displaying a fun loving

attitude.♥ Complaint letters were seen as learning opportunities for employees and

reasons to consider making adjustments

Keep Employees Happy – then they will keep customers happy

Hair Care Strategy

Strong PI / CI WIN Advertisement

Trial & re-Trial

Key Business Driver

50 / 50 in SH/CN by 2010/11

Vision

Drive Drive Image+High NOS Image+High NOS SpecialtySpecialty

形象 形象 + + 利潤利潤

Drive Volume Drive Volume +consumer base+consumer base

銷售量 銷售量 + + 擴大消擴大消費群費群

Where To Play

H&S / Pert Pantene / Pert

Clinicare & VS

Derma & VS

Shampoo Conditioner & Treatment

Mass Premium精品

Base主流

VS Styling

Expand Expand AdjacencyAdjacency

系列完整性系列完整性

DistributionDistribution

PricingPricing

ShelvingShelving

MerchandisingMerchandising

Best-In-Class FMOT

Type of Supply Chain Required

Cost Efficient

Responsive

Innovation

Current Future

1. Develop robust innovation master plan @ right GM level

2. Niche SKU supply network design3. Design in Japan, Made in China

Localize the supply chain including manufacturing, mold, packing material.

Need to have clear GTM strategy( trial, regiment

use, JVC etc) to evaluate the specific SC

implications

Mass Premium Shampoo/ConditionerMass Premium Shampoo/Conditioner

Price, Demand and Supply

短期平均成本曲线

单位成本

1,000生产规模

在固定规模工厂中 的成本曲线

单位成本

短期平均成本曲线

长期平均成本曲线

1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

关于不同规模工厂 的成本曲线

在每期不同生产水平下的

成本行为

生产成本曲线

4

12

3

生产规模

C os t&C as h 成本 & 资金• Produc tion C os t/Unit 生产成本

– 可变成本（材料 , 维修费用 , …… ）– 固定成本 ( 厂房 , …设备折旧 )

• Total C os t/unit 总成本– 市场营销，渠道与销售费用等 , 按销售

量分摊– 销量增加，成本如何变化？

• Working C apital/C as h F low 现金流– 库存– 固定资产投资 ,– 保持生产和经营的资金 ;

生产供应模式 :

•Produc e to Demand•Produc e to Buffer•Produc e to C os t effec tivenes s

MESE 六大步骤

选择定价方法选定最终价格分析竞争者成本、价格和提供物

确定需求 估计成本选择定价目标

Exercise 2~4: Price Strategy and Production

Make your decisions: --Price $_________ --Production _________ units

Capacity Master Plan• C apac ity 生产能力

– 最经济有效的产出量 , ME S E @80%– 实际取决于行业特性

• C apac ity Leadtime• Define C apac ity: Demand Ratio

– Bus ines s Model– S upply Model :

• Produc e to Demand• Produc e to B uffer• Produc e to C os t effec tivenes s

Fluctuations and Capacity Strategy Analysis

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

January March May July September November January March May July September

su/m

onth

Actual Demand 2std 95% 1Std.(68%)

1 Stdv. Minimum capacity, prebuild lead time needs 2mth

2 stedv: Preferred capacity, prebuild lead time needs 1mth

• Theory of 6 Sigma and Statistical Control

• Predict the future fluctuation based on historical shipment plus CBD inputs

• Scenarios of 1stdv=68%, 1.28stdv=90%, 2stdv=95%, 3stdv=99%

• Strategy choice to protect base business: no >=2mth C:D ratio below target

2006 2007

Rejoice Pump SizeChina Rejoice Shampoo 750ml/1000ml Supply Chain Capacity Strategy Assessment

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

450000

January March May July September November January March May July September

su/m

onth

Actual Demand 2std 95% 1Std.(68%)

Minimum capacity, prebuild lead time needs 2mth, C:D Ratio: 1.50

Preferred capacity, prebuild lead time needs 1mth, C:D Ratio: 1.78

• Pump size has a lot more fluctuation than others. Is it promotion choices?

• Insufficient pump size capacity has resulted in tight supply!

• Need increase pump size C:D ratio to 1.5

Promotion

May07 June07 July07 Aug07 Sep07 Oct07

C:D 1.17 1.02 1.03 1.17 1.4 1.21

Packing Line Capacity Master Plan

•………….

48.6 53.161.1 65.0 71.5

10.112.4

14.3 16.118.0

Current Bottle lines capacity, 78.5

Current + XQ Line#6 , 86.5

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

FY06/07 FY07/08 FY08/09 FY09/10 FY10/11

Total Bottle Demand and CapacityCAGR : HairC @10% and PCC @15%

Total HairC Bottle (mmsu) Bodywash Demandx2 Current Bottle lines capacity Current + XQ Line#6

What-If Scenarios HairCareGrowth

PCCGrowth

Capacity gaps in 08/09 Line#6 SOP

Scenario 1 10% 15% No gap AMJ 09

Scenario 2 14% 30% 2.7 JFM09

55.4 63.272.0

82.1

13.418.0

24.6

28.9

Current Bottle lines capacity, 78.5 Current + XQ Line#6 , 86.5

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

FY07/08 FY08/09 FY09/10 FY10/11

mmsu

Total Bottle Demand and Capacity-- What IfCAGR : HairC @14% and PCC @30%

what-if HC grows at 14% what-if bodywash grows @30% Current Bottle lines capacity

Current + XQ Line#6 Current + 2nd new bottle line

Fulfillment Center Master Plans

1000 ave.order #/day is breakeven point to trigger a new regional fulfillment center set up

11003500

6500

11200

19100

BJ BJ/SH BJ/SH/GZ BJ/SHGZ/CD

BJ/SHGZ/CD/SY

Fulfillment Center

Exercise 2~4: Investment on Production Capacity

Make your decisions: --Price $_________ --Production _________ units--Capacity Investment $_________

S ummary

• 供应链的设计要满足商业模式和业务策略的要求 ;

• 采取正确的价格与生产规模组合的企业才能获得最高的利润 ;

• 供需要平衡• 合理的负债和现金• 预期竞争对手的决策• 80% 的负荷率是生产成本的最佳规模，