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수요기반(Demand Driven)의선진 Demand management솔루션수요기반(Demand-Driven)의선진 Demand management 솔루션도입을통한정확한수요관리
장필수한국오라클
SCM Value Chain
Supplier Supply Base OEMs
Distributors &OEMs
Contract Mfg (EMS) / Original Design Mfg (ODM)
Distributors &Channel Partners
Component Mfg WebDi tDirect
Configure& Package
VAR /Retail
Distribution& Retail Channels
Customers
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Demand Driven Adaptive PlanningThe demand driven company runs on real time informationThe demand driven company runs on real-time information
Demand Driven leaders have:Demand Supply Demand Driven leaders have:• 15% less inventory• 17% stronger order
fulfillment
Demand Supply
ShapeDemand fulfillment
• 35% shorter cash-to-cashcycle times
Demand
Which translates to:• 60% better profit margins
Sense Demand Respond to
• 65% better EPS • 2-3X the ROA
Respond toDemand
Source: AMR Benchmark
Product
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Oracle Demand Driven Adaptive PlanningReal time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting
• Eliminate decision making latency by focusing
Real-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting
g y y gon excellence in demand visibility
– Sense demand more frequently and closer to the point of consumption– Replace spreadsheets with one number demand management -
Collaborate with all constituentsCollaborate with all constituents
• Improve your forecast accuracy– Use advanced analytics and statistics
• Shape demand– Promotion excellence and decomposition– Leverage granular demand signals (customer, channel, store, shelf)e e age g a u a de a d s g a s (custo e , c a e , sto e, s e )– Identify and simulate cross selling opportunities
• Evolve to real-time S&OPProfitable demand response– Profitable demand response
– Identify supply side opportunities– Define and monitor customer based metrics– Get real time visibility to sales tactics (price breaks, promotions, deals)
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Real Time Sales & Operations Planning
Sense demand real-timeSense demand real timeDemand Signal RepositoriesDemand Management & Advanced ForecastingDemand Management & Advanced Forecasting
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Evolving Consumer Supply Chain
Traditional View of Relationship Emerging Relationship
ConsumerGoodsMfg.
RetailerConsumer
GoodsMfg.
Retailer
sharedshared
I d t T d• Manage promotion spending focused
on volume lift
• Optimized promotional spend focused
on total volume
Industry Trends
on volume lift
• Distribution Center level planning
Retailer owns category plan
on total volume
• Store level planning
Collaborative category management• Retailer owns category plan
• Separate demand plans for
manufacturer and retailer
• Collaborative category management
• Shared plans
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
manufacturer and retailer
Reach Downstream to Cut The Noise
Manufacturer OEM Retailer/Distributor Consumer
Sale
s
TimeSa
les
Time
Sale
s
TimeSales InventoriesForecasts
POS DataInventoriesForecasts
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Oracle DSR Solution Concept
• POS sales• Price
Retail Store Data DEMAND SIGNAL REPOSITORY
UR
E
AG
EYZ
E
ON
DR
ATE TRADE PROMOTION PLANNING & OPT
grat
ion
Non-Oracle Applications
• Store inventory• Promotional plans• Store replen. rules• Store forecasts • Data sources centrally cleansed,
harmonized and aggregated
CA
PTU
MA
NA
AN
ALY
RES
POIN
TEG
R
SALES & OPERATIONS PLANNING
SUPPLY & DISTRIBUTION PLANNING
-Bas
ed In
teg
gg g• Pre-built dashboards and reports• Powerful BI capabilities • “Sense & Respond” event
management
Retail DC/ Distributor Data
• DC shipments• DC inventory DEMANTRA PTP & TPO
PRODUCT LIFECYCLE MANAGEMENTSOA
-
DEMANTRA SALES & OPERATIONS PLN
Pre-Built Integration• DC replen. rules
OtherExternal Data
• Account and Promotion planning• Promotion Optimization
• Balance demand supply and budgets
DEMANTRA DEMAND MANAGEMENT
ORACLE SUPPLY & DISTRIBUTION PLN
• Retail loyalty• IRI/AC Nielsen• 3rd party demographic• Causal (weather,etc.)
Balance demand, supply and budgets• Constrained forecast analysis• Full S&OP process support
• Supply Planning (ASCP)
• Demand consensus forecasting• Better statistics - Increase forecast accuracy• Promotion lift analysis• Attribute-based forecasting
• Pre-built integration of aggregated demand signals to Demantra
• Standards-based integration for other ORACLE PRODUCT LIFECYCLE MGT
• RFID/EPC• IMS, NDC, EDI (867,
852), Scripts, Pedigree• Unstructured text
pp y g ( )• Distribution Planning (ASCP-DRP)• Network Design (SNO)
Attribute based forecasting• New product introductions – Shape modeling
• New product development and introduction
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
applications • Integration with Agile (Future)
DSR Solution Capabilities
Capture • Adaptors to capture a variety of data types and sources• Data cleansing tools to address data quality issues
Manage
g q y
• Extensible, retailer-based data model to maintain external data at the store/SKU level
• Routines to to harmonize data across multiple dataManage
A l
• Routines to to harmonize data across multiple data aggregation levels and hierarchies
• Pre-built category management, key account management and ptur
ean
age
alyz
esp
ond
egra
te
Analyze scorecarding dashboards and reports • Flexible, robust business intelligence and reporting capabilities
• Rules-based exception management dashboard
Ca
Ma
An
Res
Inte
Respondp g
• Automated workflow to facilitate resolution of exceptions• User-defined, event-based triggers to initiate transactions in
external applications and enable “sense & respond” capabilitiesOracle Demand Signal Repository
Integrate• Pre-built integration with key Oracle applications such as
Demantra, Siebel, Agile and G-Log• Pre-built SOA integration with other external applications via
Oracle Application Integration Architecture
Signal Repository
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Oracle Application Integration Architecture
Sense Demand Real-TimeInvolve all constituents and forecast closer to the point of consumption
REGION EAST FCSTUS
STORE FORECASTJAPAN
11/18 5pm:“New photo
Involve all constituents and forecast closer to the point of consumption
REGION WEST FCST
REGION SOUTH FCST
PRODUCT FORECAST
CHANNEL FORECAST11/20 12pm:
“New camerasales at 150%
pprinter sales at -25% of estimate, request TV add”
Region South SalesForecast QTY Change
Tokyo Store 1 Forecast Change (YEN)
sales at 150% of estimate”
MANUFACTURING FCST
MARKETING FCST
SALES FCST
HQ
TV add “camera +i t ” ti
ALERT: “Problem in US Region East”printer” promotion
airs 12/21 8pm
Consensus Forecast
US Region East11/20 2pm:
“Budget approval for
global TV add”
• Demand changes get detected real-time and are instantly reflected to all constituents and exceptions are triggered automatically
global TV add
20th Century Fox processes real time updates from 15,000+ stores daily
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Improve Forecast AccuracyDesigned for planners not programmers (“PhD in a box”)
BayesianEstimator Bayesian
Designed for planners, not programmers ( PhD in a box )
5-35%
History
C l
Estimator
Model A CombinedModel
Forecast
Optimizer
improvementCausal
Factors
CausalsCausalsAnalysisAnalysis
OutlierOutlier
PromotionalPromotionalEventsEvents
SeasonalitySeasonality
TrendTrend
CyclicalCyclicalPatternsPatterns
CausalsCausalsAnalysisAnalysis
OutlierOutlier
PromotionalPromotionalEventsEvents
SeasonalitySeasonality
TrendTrend
CyclicalCyclicalPatternsPatterns
Promotion Events
OutlierOutlierDetectionDetection
TrendTrendOutlierOutlierDetectionDetection
TrendTrend
Causal Analysis
EventsSeasonality
Trend
Outlier Detection
Cyclical Patterns
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Sense Demand Real-TimeMonitor customer demand and respond to ensure high service levelsMonitor customer demand and respond to ensure high service levels
Disti, Product &Disti UPC #
Forecast based on POS data from
Disti Inventory Levels
Customer & C
Week of Inventory Cover
DistisMeasure the weeks of Inventory cover at the distisCompany
Forecasts Replenishment Status
Actual POS
cover at the distis
On Hand Inventory
Resolution
ConsensusForecast
Demand VariabilityOrange: Potential OOS
Red: Current OOSCompare POS data with pConsensus PlanIdentify potential stock outs and resolve
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
resolve
Sense Demand Real-TimeCollaborate with customers and measure impactsCollaborate with customers and measure impacts
• Improve demand visibility with customer collaboration
• Tailor worksheets to specific customer
Partner I t
needs• Worksheet can be attached to a task• Direct alerts via application or email• Automate internal notification on customerInputs:
XML,EDI or Manual
Partner Forecast Metrics
• Automate internal notification on customer input
• Field-level security tied to customer access privileges
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Real Time Sales & Operations Planning
Sh D d f P fit bilitShape Demand for ProfitabilityPredictive Trade Planning & Optimizationg p
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
New Products IntroductionAccurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data
• New products present forecasting challengesLi it d d d hi t f i it
Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data
– Limited or no demand history for a given item– May combine characteristics of several previous products – Price points, changing market conditions may be different – Product demand changes over product life cycle
Chaining Shape Modeling Attribute-Based Chaining
New Product C =
Shape Modeling
•Apply shapes, scaled for volume
Forecasting
Model new item based on past
30% Product A + 75% Product B
and time•Re-scale base on initial demand data
based on past behavior of other items with similar attributes
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
New Products IntroductionAccurately forecast demand for new products based on existing dataAccurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data
View demand of comparable products based on characteristics
Derive forecast for new product and adjust forecast based on actual demand
Automatically detect outliers
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
True Promotional ROI Is Not Obvious
Analytics Required to Measure Real ROI
Promoted Volume Does Not Provide Complete Picture
2500
3000
TPR Display
2500
3000
TPR Display
1000
1500
2000
Cas
es
CannibalizationPre- and post-effectsCompetitive switchingCategory growthBaseline
Netlift
Baseline1000
1500
2000
Cas
es
Actual
0
500
Week 1 Week 6 Week 11
Actual
0
500
Week 1 Week 6 Week 11
Week
TPR Display
Product Margin $450,000 $450,000
P ti t $250 000 $250 000
TPR Display
$150,000 $300,000
$ $Promotion cost $250,000 $250,000
Net profit $200,000 $200,000Promotion ROI 80% 80%
$250,000 $250,000
-$100,000 $50,000
-40% 20%
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential *. TPR : Temporary price reduction
Decomposition of the Promotional Lift
Data Intelligence-Knowledge-Collaboration-Value
Consumer
Advertising
Category Cannibalization
Pantry Load
Brand Cannibalization
Pantry Load
Forward Buy
Incremental
Tradevs.vs.Category Growth
Brand Growth
Cannibalization
Account Switching
True Trade
Competitive Account
SwitchingCompetitive
Brand Switching
Brand GrowthNet Lift
Baseline Baseline BaselineBaseline
Traditional ItemEvaluation Demantra’s Promotion Evaluation
RetailerManufacturer
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Manufacturer and Retailer Analysis
• Compare planned versus actual results • Color coding highlights better than
expected or under performing resultsLift d iti t id tifi• Lift decomposition to identifies components of lift including cannibalization
• Drill down to speed analysis
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Drill down to speed analysis• Exception process can route analysis
based on user defined rules
Real Time Sales & Operations Planning
Evolve to Real-Time S&OPEvolve to Real-Time S&OPReal-Time Sales & Operations PlanningHyperionHyperion
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Evolve to Real-Time S&OPM k d d d l d i i i lt l
MarketingStrategic plans Profitability
Make demand and supply decisions simultaneously
FinancePromotional andvolume plans Service levels
Strategic
TacticalSales
Executives
ProductDevelopment
Demand plans Inventory levels
Capacity plans Promotion effectiveness
Tactical Decisions
Manufacturing
ExecutivesPhase in and phase out products Plan accuracy
• Identify financial and revenue goals• Analyze demand and develop sales
forecastS h i l Fi S l
• Review supply and demand plans• Develop constrained plan• Monitor results and respond to
deviations• Synchronize plan across Finance, Sales, Marketing, and Supply Chain
• Determine potential market variables
deviations• Create promotions and incentives to
shape demand and close gaps
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Real-Time S&OP Case StudyZebra Synchronizes Demantra Demand Management and Oracle CRM Opportunities with Hyperion Financial Plans/Budgets as part of S&OP
Business Planning and BudgetingBudgeting
(Hyperion)
Development
MARKETING andSALES
OPERATIONS andCONTRACT MFG
Financial
Rough-CutCapacity Planning
DevelopmentPlan
FinancialPlans (Hyperion)
Production Plans (SNO)
Demand Management Aggregate
Sales Plan
Sales & OperationsPlanning
(Demantra)
MasterSchedulingCRM
Opportunities
Detailed Sales Plans
ASCPDemantraDetailed Material/Capacity Planning
Plant & Supplier
MarketingForecast Oracle
CRM
Plant & SupplierScheduling
Execution
Sales Forecast
Sales Execution
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
H i t b i l i & b d tiBusiness Planning & BudgetingHyperion generate business planning & budgeting
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
H i W k h t G t d d i S&OP P f P&L I tProfit & Loss AnalysisHyperion Worksheets are Generated during S&OP Process for P&L Impact View of S&OP Plans sent from Demantra
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Automate Consensus Planning T il d k h t f t ti i ti
• Seeded worksheet templates for the
Tailored worksheets for management participation
templates for the consensus process
• Stakeholders review and adjust forecast
Sales Manager at customer and
product family by month j
• Data tailored for role• Compare with
Consensus Forecast
month
• Track accuracy of input to the consensus process
Marketing Manager g gat category by
quarter
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Highly Interactive Simulation and AnalysisPublish working
consensus forecast
Optimize supply network and constrain
Compare scenarios for decision making
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Management Review - Demand Review
How has the plan h d?changed?
Order backlog i i ?
How are we t ki tincreasing? tracking to forecast?
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
forecast?
Management Review - Supply Review
H d tAre we supply t i d?
How are product categories
constrained?g
performing?
WhAre we
producing toWhere are we resource
producing to plan?resource
constrained?p
Supplier © 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
ppoverloading?
Management Review - Executive Review
How are weHow are we performing toperforming to performance Are we on
metrics? plan financially?financially?
Where are we behind budget?
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
We predict the impact of today’s business decisions on tomorrow’s business performanceReferences
We predict the impact of today s business decisions on tomorrow s business performanceConsumer Goods
Consumer Durables
Industrial Manufacturing Media and Entertainment
Hi h T h lHigh Technology
Medical Devices Retail / Wholesale
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
Q U E S T I O N SA N S W E R S
© 2008 Oracle Corporation – Proprietary and Confidential
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