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1. Calcolo delle probabilità2a. Statistica frequentista2b. Statistica bayesiana3. Likelihood4. Fondo e segnale5. Metodi di best fit6. Metodi Bootstrap7. Metodi ricorsivi e filtri8. Unfolding
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Whorkshop on confidence limits CERN, 2000
PHYSTAT2003 USA
PHYSTAT2005 Durham
PHYSTAT2007 CERN
James, Cowan, Barlow, Feldman, Cousins, Zech, Roe, LyonsD’Agostini, Punzi, Giuntisome statisticians
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Legge empirica del caso
than 4
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A: insieme degli assiB: insieme dei quadri
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Il caso di Sally Clark, I
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• Clark's release in January 2003 prompted the Attorney General to order a review of hundreds
of other cases.[1] Two other women convicted of murdering their children, Donna Anthony
and Angela Cannings, had their convictions overturned and were released from prison. Trupti
Patel, who was also accused of murdering her three children, was acquitted in June 2003. In
each case, Roy Meadow had testified about the unlikelihood of multiple cot deaths in a single
family.
• Meadow was struck off the medical register by the General Medical Council in 2005 for
serious professional misconduct, but he was reinstated in 2006 after he appealed. In June
2005, Alan Williams, the pathologist who conducted the postmortem examinations on both
the Clark babies, was banned from Home Office pathology work and coroners' cases for
three years after the General Medical Council found him guilty of "serious professional
misconduct" in the Clark case.[13] This decision was upheld by the High Court in November
2007.[14]
• According to her family, Clark was unable to recover from the effects of her conviction and
imprisonment.[15] After her release, her husband said she would "never be well again".[1] She
was unable to read John Batt's book about her case, Stolen Innocence: A Mother's Fight for
Justice.[1]
• By all accounts a broken woman, Clark was found dead in her home in Hatfield Peverel in
Essex on 16 March 2007.[1][3] It was originally thought that she had died of natural
causes,[8][16] but an inquest ruled that she had died of acute alcohol intoxication, though the
coroner stressed that there was no evidence that she had intended to commit suicide.[3]
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Il caso di Sally Clark, II
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P(E| I), t w o rat her
Il caso di Sally Clark, III
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ESTRAI E LEGGI(biglia) ≤ numero intero
X variabile aleatoria prima della provax valore assunto dopo la provaATTENZIONE!!!
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2
1)( /xe
πxg
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2
1)( /Xe
πXg22
2
1)( /xe
πxg
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222ln2)(ln2 XXg
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}
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x
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c2 - c1
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dipendenti indipendenticorrelate
dipendenti
Variabili gaussiane
incorrelate
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