3

, , 2011. 8. 27

1

2 1SFD 2 3 / 4 31. 1212 (Korean Population Telescope Model, KPTM) , , , SD ( ) (2010 ) : 2011 ( ) (0:2010, 1040:2030, 2080: 2050)4

time0520104015602080D 48,874,539 49,325,68948,634,57146,343,01742,342,769 : - Pt+1 = Pt +Bt-Dt+Mt(Pt : t , Bt : t , Dt : t , Mt : t ) - 2005 :

(1.21/, 2010), , ( )

: (15 49 ) *

John Sterman (Business Dynamics) 12(Coflows and Aging Chains)

52. SFD 16

7

2. SFD 2 2. :

: ,

: ,

: 83. 19** : , , Time(week)0520104015602080Current49,590,00050,210,00049,230,00046,090,00041,290,000

210

311

412

513

614

115** 1 :

1 16** : 230 41,290,00043,590,000 1 17** (). (65 ) ** ( : 28.48% / 1 : 31.39%)

2(Current2)18** 2 : 1+ ( )

2(Current2)19** 2 : 1+ ( )

( ). . , 1(Current3)20** 1 : (10 0.41 ) , 2050 49,720,000

1(Current3)21** 1 : (10 0.41 )

1(Current3)22** 1 : (10 0.41 )

65 . ,

2(Current4)23** 2 : (2 2.01 ) , , 2050 43,190,000 ( )

2(Current4)24** 2 : (2 2.01 ) ,

2(Current5)25** 3 : (2 2.01 ) ,

3(Current5)26** 3 : 20 0.16 1.37 , 2050 43,820,000

3(Current5)27** 3 : 20 0.16 1.37

3(Current5)28** 3 : 20 0.16 1.37

: , 1

4(Current6)29** 4 : 2 , 10% , 2050 44,140,000

4(Current6)30** 4 : 2 , 10%

5(Current7)31** 5 : (1.05) 2050 38,220,000

5(Current7)32** 5 : (1.05)

5(Current7)33** 5 : (1.05) , 30%

1(Current8)34** : , (1-10) 1 : 5( ) ,

1(Current8)35** : , (1-10) 1 : 5( ) ,

2(Current9)36** : , (1-10) 2 : 10() ,

2(Current9)37** : , (1-10) 2 : 10()

0-14 ,

1(Current10)38** 1: (current1)+(current2)+(current3) current10 (2050) : 54,550,000,

1(Current10)39** 1: (current1)+(current2)+(current3) current10 ,

2(Current11)40** 2: (current1)+(current2)+ (current7) current11 (2050) : 43,010,000, (23,780,000)

2(Current11)41** 2: (current1)+(current2)+ (current7) (2050) : 16,180,000, (37.62%) 424. / 1212 , , , : , SD , 43.