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Journal of Al Azhar University-Gaza (Natural Sciences), 2014, 16 : 47-68 http://www.alazhar.edu.ps استخدامنحدار الوجستي ال لدراسةعوامل ال المؤثرة على أداءسهم ا) دراسة تطبيقية على سوق الكويتوراق للمالية ا( The Use of Logistic Regression in studying the Factors Influencing the Performance of Stocks (An Empirical Study on the Kuwait Stock Exchange) سهيلة حمود عبدا الفرهود الهيئةلعامة التعليم لقي التطبي والتدريب- دولة الكويت كليةسات ا الدرلتجارية ا- قسمحصاء امستريخ ا تا22 / 50 / 2502 قبولريخ ال تا50 / 50 / 2502 ملخص ال: تناول هذا البحث استخدام أسلوبنحدار الوجستي اللثنائي ا اسة لدر أهم ات المؤشرلمالية ا المؤثرة على أداءسهم ا في سوق الكويت اقور للمالية، ا وقدوصلت ت اسة الدر إلى مجموعة منلنتائج امها أه كفاءة النموذجمستخلص ال بشكل كليلتنبؤ ل بأداءسهم، اضافة با إلى أن النسب التي تمثل أفضلنبآت متداء با كانت ستا وقدمكنت ت من تصنيف أداء أسهملشركات ا قيد البحث إلىوعين ن( جيد) و( رديء) وذلك بدقة عالية بلغت74.2%. وكان ترتيب النسبلمالية ا المؤثرة معنويا على أداءسهم ا بالسوقتي الكوي وفقاميتهاه النسبية كالتالي: ربحية السهم، نسبة الدين إلىوق حقملكية، ال نسبة السعر السوقي إلى القيمة الدفترية، نسبةتداول، ال نسبة صافي اداتير ا البنكية إلىصول اكلية ال ا وأخيرلعائد ا علىوق حقملكية ال. كلمات مفتاحية: نحدار الوجستي، ال تصنيف أداء السهم، سوق الكويت اقور للمالية، ا النسبلمالية ا. Abstract: This paper explored the usage of Binary Logistic Regression in determining the most significant financial indicators that affect the performance of stocks in the Kuwait Stock Exchange. The study pointed to a number of conclusions among which: The concluded model was entirely efficient in predicting the performance of stocks; just six financial ratios were statistically significant to predict the required model, which in turn were able to classify the performance of the companies stocks’ under study into (good) or (poor) with 74.2% accuracy level. The order of these ratios according to their relative importance was as follows: earnings per share,

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