43
msia siaqAq oiuisiOW si€iai MA ¶AJU 3MOH A 3$I3HT I YHW OIJO1T$IOc1 T4013s101 IO RYJAT4A T4AqAL MI IH$13J4WO YTIUQH ns)I oo)I-nut 1w2 .M fi5! ÔR .oM 1qE nbhoW HD$IA325I DIMOMO33 i0 UAEI$IUa JAMOITAI4 3LJn3vA ad3M OOI 8UO AM ,bhdtn .QQt ki flwiE iM bivaU ni3i2nll&1 3113 ,131x8fl 3fIfIBrIBM molt nmmo ioI 1u131I 31E di i inBqi3itwq ,hqqU mma$1 ,iLadT iKI i1lid2 ndo$I sdi,joq mit ,i!qO miT iM oirlO 3mb it isnim £ ill bna quoiO nEm1F1 !JrioivJuI3fl $13M 3mb lo riiiM QQ! 'uiridI a5L3fffrI o flq i iqq icff .131rI3W brinI illiw ano1i13vno3 !u1u ioI bnB ii13vinU 3iI 3orf3 51S bIqx3 noiniqo riA .n&iiq 3i1oqIoD bn nbW1 33A iii ammwioiq d31s31 .d3i8323$I 31m0fl033 lo uB31u8 IJrnoilBM 3mb lo omb ion bnB 1orbuE di lo ion Jx31 10 2noü rtod .b3v13i irIh ifA .1ui .M n51 bn m1E)I oo)I-cwt d QQI © 4ib513 Ilul lBifi b3bivoiq noiim-iq n3!!qx3 iuombiw b3ioup 3d '(sm dqsiinsq owl b333x3 01 .331LJO 3mb 01 fl3V1 1 331lOfl © fILbUI3fli

ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

  • Upload
    others

  • View
    0

  • Download
    0

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

msia siaqAq oiuisiOW si€iai

MA ¶AJU 3MOH A 3$I3HT I YHW OIJO1T$IOc1 T4013s101 IO RYJAT4A

T4AqAL MI IH$13J4WO YTIUQH

ns)I oo)I-nut 1w2 .M fi5!

ÔR .oM 1qE nbhoW

HD$IA325I DIMOMO33 i0 UAEI$IUa JAMOITAI4 3LJn3vA ad3M OOI

8UO AM ,bhdtn .QQt ki

flwiE iM bivaU ni3i2nll&1 3113 ,131x8fl 3fIfIBrIBM molt nmmo ioI 1u131I 31E di i inBqi3itwq ,hqqU mma$1 ,iLadT iKI i1lid2 ndo$I sdi,joq mit ,i!qO miT iM

oirlO 3mb it isnim £ ill bna quoiO nEm1F1 !JrioivJuI3fl $13M 3mb lo riiiM QQ! 'uiridI a5L3fffrI o flq i iqq icff .131rI3W brinI illiw ano1i13vno3 !u1u ioI bnB ii13vinU 3iI

3orf3 51S bIqx3 noiniqo riA .n&iiq 3i1oqIoD bn nbW1 33A iii ammwioiq d31s31 .d3i8323$I 31m0fl033 lo uB31u8 IJrnoilBM 3mb lo omb ion bnB 1orbuE di lo

ion Jx31 10 2noü rtod .b3v13i irIh ifA .1ui .M n51 bn m1E)I oo)I-cwt d QQI © 4ib513 Ilul lBifi b3bivoiq noiim-iq n3!!qx3 iuombiw b3ioup 3d '(sm dqsiinsq owl b333x3 01

.331LJO 3mb 01 fl3V1 1 331lOfl © fILbUI3fli

Page 2: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

uuq 11BE1C01flWPfl OH 43JOL C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314

A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U?flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q E1IJCL C0!IC 0. Bn2!UcaaoLvqrwc 2P00J 0 N91JCWCU DCbLWJCUI 0 JUUCCV111-K00 KU KCIJ N 2W!

JjJOC101J2 C0U2!2ICU1 4W 0(11 cAqcUcc

qrn woqcj iiqi c-pq iuowipouvj wwcp.!c vuq qcvqcju co cu ?qcjq ci

IJJCLC T 110 C/4qCIIC 11J91 j0LCU 011UL2J1!b !2 LcJcq 0 Gxbccrcq LCWLIJ oj Hc 2OM

/1OL qJCA pjq ipc 1bic unqcci bouioJo1 0MCACL V.mL coIW.oflpJ 0L n.w

cxbo woI.c pic LC1CL 0LGiU o/AuI2p!b EOLCU iUAC0L qo U0 bcqouM ujcuqX

L!1c uq LIUJJ 114W 1O/1 JCACLG COU1LO1J!IJ 0L 2!C WCLC ! C14CUCC 4JJ U1JJ JUIJ JJV

uqrJ2p.G !LC U1JJ L11111 W4t1 ooq JCC011U11U bcuouimucc L1U2 MJJ J0N flU21CUJVIC

b9bcr jc qocnwui lp9 ,oLcu !UAC20L2 0JCLMCiJU 2JJLC2 o ji.w lu umuncwqi

jicq O/1L2 pp cxbcccq i.cuau 0CJC2 ULC ucourcu iip rpc cJ4qcucc bLolqqcq u ip

bouopo cpo!cc bLcqc1u quhi 0LCU rnAC21oI2 pojq upou9j WLJCGr bo1.qpJo OL bou10J!oe

wc qccumuiu o pc pouic p u boi.qpjio pojqu Ex!!u woqcj oj !ucwou9J

JJJ!2 bbc f12C2 qW OU 0LCU 0CJC o//t11CJ211!b !u ibøu jL0W o jj o CJJ!UC

VBLKVGL

EOfILLA ON11E12HIb 114 WbVI4VL4VFA2I2 Ob hO1EIO14 hOKLhOFIOliHA 12 IHEKE V HONE BW2 V14

1ITJA

I4BEK joqc1u bL iIJQQ

Page 3: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

qocnwcuj gjn bpcuowcuou2 ELCUCJJ gzjq bOiCI.P (ioiY COObCL uq KsbIin (JoMY uq jc suq cuJcL(J)OL bbcI2

thccjc qw pi OqJCL MOL MC JJOM qi OLCIU flJIC21O12 pojq oo cii bmcc ptce pn 'c

VII w Cim WAC2I1OU O 1JJC p0mG prn flC conu&-Miqc qw LWCL pu uu-

c9jcq powe pi rn bozoiro pm 20 uo cxbjinou 2GGW2 o pc cuci.jjA cccbicq

ic cormiuc vicp jpc fl miq bmr 2c1cI.J cxbJuIou2 pvc pccu 2ffccq 0L qiie 20-

q ou omJcL2jnb o mice 2OM2 2C2 Lc woaijA pcq pA qowcapc Lc2iqcui2 IOL

bbLoxiwpoI? o pojq we mojq umwc1 boI4OpO o ocjc vii we 9/JpJe

J1JJCL2 0 ncumpoiij W/C2jUICIJ Lc wjj umuA O2GLACL2 ncai 0uC Monjq cxbccj

q c21oL2 ci.c oujA pon wewcu uq we iuucc o c LcI LCUIW o IpCIL n3Aca1cq Mc1w iq

2WIICL IJmU OUC MonJq cxbcci rn pc 92CUCC o pWCL o rnzcumioimj rn1c2w1cIu1 pi bi.pcrq

Ac2pzJcu JJAC jjcu qi pcj1A' OLGiU oMucL2pth oj jmica ia ijj cxpcwcjA pwucq uq wncp

j,uA jimucij ccououna mic uoiccq j9 CACU lponp ipc ULUCL2 jo rnuI91IOu w-

cL2}nb OflOLCIU 2LC2 WOLC CV1A ipmi wcA conjqiMemA-Iye Aei.2 o

JC22 1UAC2OL2 TU WO2 COULIC2 C9IJ UOM WAC21 pLoq qaoip Wflifl9j puq 9uq CACIJ qILCCI OMU-

o bLoplcw UOM JJJ12 CAOJfljJou qoc2 U0 WCU JJ jj opaweJc2 JJVC qI2bbGLGq 4cAcLqJc-

OLCIU WAC2OL2 OCU onjq uq i qicrip 0 C1 LCIJflJ2 OL CLGU2 0L XC2 biq 9pLoq JJfl2 t

uc zjj pe jmniou ou OLCiU OMIJCL2pIb wjA we jcj o x p wornpou wcu

OLJM wpoIwq OLC1U boi.ojio WACaWJCU jjocpcu J4OM eIi comuue qo 20 pm UJ!IJA conu-

rrcp LG2LIC11OU2 UOM 1Jq UJIJA CWCL1U C0mUG2 C cjiuiiimiiu weur jjcif CORIWJC2 MOfTJ

CPUC iiuciou puneq cLo22-poLqcz. boi.qpjio rnAcwcur jct qCAeobcq conmuc2 pAc

pouj boz.oiio JUAC2WjCU 1McIul-LJAc Ac2 wo21 COHUfUC2 p9q LC2jUCPOU2 OU 0LCiU CX-

OACL we MCUA-AC AC12 MC JJVC 2CCIJ qiWC CCLC2C RI 021CJC2 O IU1CU-

GC!0U I 0fL0qflCI0U

Page 4: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

4

2 2W1 q M 22CI4.1ICU (J) OL 91J 91JA2I2 OOLCIU oE11cL2nb LC2(UCOU2

rnCou2iW mip iwbjc cxbJmJruou2 o c powc i2 JT OCfl2 OU O2WCj2 o pojqiu oLCiU

c uityc boojro o qic cornjuc in tipicp qic uiic jpc ciiqcucc bLcciucq in qn bbcL 12

ojto jc 2OM in qqipoIr MCU 1UAC2OL2 WACaj oIil2iqC WelL poinc C0flIJ& iJJCX qo iJOj poq

jpc powc-p12 Ji1cLU1LC p cwbptcq qm nJJc2joL2 qo uo pojq pc MOLJ wqcc1 bog-

OLC1I3 OMUCL2pIb in jLc un

pip cxboi. 10 2SC2 LflO pn qm ijiC CXb0142 O 2JC2 LPO 12 U01 1WbOLfUi 0L

q on pc isio o cxboi. o oj 2JC2 jc uq jjmj JCLC 12 LGCL OLCiU o!A11C12J31b pL 211mjJ

eumpc u2J LCIPAC o pc poqm o ipc bucac wqcc boi.ojio EOL S 2np2C1 o JjU2 MC

0UiJSUCC U1J2 M!W JOM JCACLSC LUJ2 MUJJ JJ1JJ WSLJCC-1O-pOOJC LS1102 uq jJLW2 MI JOM flIJ2A2-

1sbu OACLMC1}U P0NW82 O JUJJ2 in UJSIJr!CWL1IJ wqrrajuc2 JUIJ2 HiUJi ooq SCCOn1JWI beL-

JJC cdrnr) o juiia in jpc 2UJSJJC2 21C dnrnpjc jpi.onpon 0(IL swbjc bcuoq pLCtii WAC2iOL2 in

pc? poq opccdni ope un pc ob zic dnnc Ui COUP2ZI 180o\o OI

BIG W021 LOfl2i LC2JTU MC ijiiq 12 JJS OLCi1J iiJAC2OL2 WAC2j buwsuj? in stc JuIi2: On

s bcuoq OI2CACIUCCIJ ?CSL

OLC1IJ 11MC210L2 /jC fl2C S q .152C1 iJJSi bLoMqc2 OLCIU OM1JCL2JJIb oi rnqiiiqns ijuu iu vbsu OL

2pIb COU21L1U12 SLC Uo1 pwqiu siiq WCLCOLG C qss On OLC1U O/AIJCI2pIb LGLJCCI2 qic cJJoicC2 O.

c2wSC2 LCUCC pwqnJ CoU2LSHU2 OU OLCiU oMIJCL2JJIb in qic cnc o sbsu qic OLC!U OMUCL-

LOL qJC2C COI1IULIC2 JCLOLC 0UC CSIJ C1 Su cwwSc o 2JJ5LC2 pcq pA OLCiU C2OL2 prig qjcac

p.ic 2OUJC 2SLC2 C9IJIJO pe poflp pA iOLC1IJ IUAC2OL2 OL CSu oujA pe ponu pA pLcJIJ rnAG21O12

MC JCIJO/A o M}JCLC qCSijcq qsw OU pOJqUJ2 pA OLC1U WAC210L2 SLC SASIJSpJC I1 UJSUA coPu-

tcwcu 'U i HUCLC1IJ on i o'u wcu sbsu 5J20 psbbcn2 o pe JC oujA Jsi.c corinu.A

rn2i)U2 nuo qic powe-pi bnuiqox pA fl2W qi88tcsicq qss OL sbsn JqJOflJ3 OLC1IJ III-

qo UO JCIJOM JJOM qiC1L pOqw2 UI SbU SLC qiiqcq UIOIJ 2pSLc2 P1 q1i2 auiqA MC bLoiiqc IJCM

Page 5: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

bcccq Lcwur jip qn nnwbou qn t11c13wLc IusbJic2 qmi rnieuipouj quci21cpou mmwpl-

uq cucz.jjA 21WC2 q'j rn cuiou qciciou m2 uo uijcmi cjcc1 ou boi.qoto cx-

1)M}JCLC JJ312 111CL9WLC OCfl2C2 OU AuUcc Lcqnc1Ou L JIUJ LOW CUJPOU UCL2UCiOU

I!1cWLc OCff2C2 ou qjc bcI.2bccUAc o fl IJAC21OL JJ!2 CIJCI3J 1JUJ lION2 OL WAC210L2 CAC-

oj1o CCfl2C oLciii cxplptj JOM coucJIou mup qowcic 2pLC2 J1JJOI1JJ UJflC O. p2

IUCC C J IôO ii 12 MCJJ-JUJOJdIJ 9T WAC2jTIJ pLOq LCflCC2 qic A91J9UCC O bog-

ccriou jpc qGGLuJIuvu4 ot OL€Uboi.qoio ! AGfwGu: v LGAJGII o (G J!4GL4flLG

cci:iou jj

CuOU2 o Ofil. cMqcucc OL wOqCj2 o n UJSPOUJ bOujpjiO cpoicc coucjn2iou 12 bLoAlqcq ID

omucL2Jnb pcJb2 cxbjgiu c cL022-2ccUOzmJ AUPOIJ OI LCUTLUW P1 CCUOU JØ) me 2OM C Iwbp-

UThC2OL2 in bu LCjPAC O we bcu,ouimucc o c wqccr cqiou s?c2 MJJGqJCL OLCfII

LiO O1 CXbOLI2 O 2C2 OL 2fl2 o iuisw ccjiou g ctjiie qJc bcuouiiucc o iOLciU

A9LJG LC&C2210112 In CCUOU pi cciiOU MC awq MJICIJICL OLC1U OMUCL2JIIb 12 LCJ9C 10 iP

2CC110119j A9U9UOU In OMIJCL2Jflb ftC IWcaP91C C qcCUIJIuSI2 O OLCiU OMUCL2IJIb fl2flJ wnjp-

w bu bci. ?en. OL 0111. 29IJJbIC beuoq iii ecpou Me apom mnitinc e!Iqcucc ou we CL022-

OLC1U conup.k CCUOU 4 qC2CUpC2 0111. q919 9uq bLo/1qc2 2flumJ9L? WC9211LC2 0 0LC1IJ WAc2WICu

pLciu boi.oiio WAC2WIeU1 lu ccpou mc bLc2cu 2mibjc woqcj oboi.ojio poJqnJ2 itupni 9

Jpc bbci blocccq2 oiio' pi cqiou mc LCMCM w II1CL9WLC oil ipc qccwnumu 0

92)uJwcuC2 9LC 2UJ9flCL OL J9LC ULUJ2 JJ91J OL 2111911 UUIJ2

lmccu qowcapc 90q TOLCIU 1uAc21oL2 jø pc cou2121c1u mi qic qw i Wfl2 PC I9 jpc2c nJiounzou

LCJ9ILAC pqiua 0 OLC1IJ 2CCflI.WC2 p1 b9u1cn!9L 0L 9 woqcj mup ruioI.w9ou ithiI1ue1uc2 pe-

uioqc pc Ubc oi p91.ueL2 o rncumpou9J rnicwcu jm C9U cxbj9ui 9 powe pI MCJJ

2JJ9LG2 9LC COUJIJJOLI 0 9JJ 2JJ9LC2 111 9 COfWfl /JC 2}J0M Hi JJC COIJCX 0 9 WC9U-A9U9IJCC

Page 6: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

e

qmc o ipc Iwbo2iJou oj UJCL2 conjq ccomz pi. pc cxiam boi.qoro llOCPoU2 i rnAcaIoL

IIUCUJiIOUJ 1uicawJcIJ1 9T JCS2L OL w COfflJW2 U 2CW2 J2O JWbLOppJC pc

i.nc pj qi jzuncq rncuipoinj q1Aci.aqjcpou o boi.qopo i qnc onjA o opcuvpjc p9uic12 O

C9IJi OP2CUPIC qCCLLCIJ1 O 1OLCIU iiJAcwcuj 92G OU }JCIL 9tflWCIU? i 2GCU32 niib1naipjc o

onq jJAC 10 PC IIJflCJJ JLCL )J9U MUJJOJ1U XC2 MICJJ OJCU LC wciwoucq rpc wo uuj-

awinrj pu wo opcucz. 2ccw o pmjc ic p b91.pcnji? pcA 2flC2j 113C2C PUJCL2

boz.qpjio Jj0CI0U2 O IIJAC2jOL2 pLLTCL2 10 !IUCU3POUJ IIJAC2PJJCU1 orqq JJiC O PC WOLC p-

ELCUCP 9uq bO1CLP (rooD iiq COOL uq b1uI2 (j) nc qrn o cxb1sm jpc opcucq

WAC2WJCIJe HJACaIOL2 9JJOCC ouA JCLA 2Wj iJ2CPOU O 4J3CIL bOLOjtO jO OLCIIJ HMC2WJCIJj2

jjuA bbcL2 JmAc LcccIuJ? bowicq am jm qcebirc 1p12 CCLC2C m UJCL2 w nucumpouj

IIJCLC2C TU OLCIIJ !IJAC2WJCIJf

rm T11cIJ qL icjjA OACL pC j u-yc Aci ao auG iionjq pIc cxbcccq

2bouq o jpc LCWUJ2 jm cci.nc o uou-Lc2TqcIu micaoz A ccorw WonJf JG2C JrnLUCL2

MJJO2C uijbc AUC2 CLO22 IIJAC2OL2 OUJUJ LCITLU2 OU 14OLC1IJ 2J19LC2 UmA WCLCIOLC UO COliC-

CC112C JJCLC LC wripib1c pLLJCL2 O wcumpouj WACWCu c qTujcnj io iqcup lJ

WAC210L2 LC JJOMCq O pojq OLC1U 22C12 2 MCII S2 qowcapc 22G12 jJfl2 12 jmq C2G O WJCC

tiOiJJ qciiu 12 10 2OM tjmt qic qowcpc UJLJCC bOLOIrO 12 U wcjcicm boi.qppo MpCU

tiOimj q CL2iCiOu 12 1J01 O2ct pA JOMCL cxbcctcq LCUIUJ2 ØUC MA to umjcc qic C2C OL flJtCUJ-

C2C OUC JJ2 tO L1C qJ9 CXbCCtCq LCWLU2 LC 2ff CJJ tJXt We A9U9UCG LCITCPOU PCIJCIJt O uucum-

LC UO pA iJJCUJ2CJAC2 2flUJCiCUt tO UJ9CC JJC C2C OL WtCLUjIOUJ qAcL2ic9uOu jO UJCC

nubpc2 tJJ WC 21nq1C2 1JJ OCfT2 Ou tJJC ASUUCC LCflCtlOIJ PCUCW2 O ilJtCUJ9tlOlJJ CCi1OU

2qCtiou to cqnce jpc iuicc o boz.qppo2 i.ctnw miq to cqricc wcu LCtflW 2 MCJJ

wc b1c2Cucc Ol p9UJc12 tO IUtGUJ1OUJ lU/C2tWCUt i 12 b0221p1C OL IUtCUJt1OUJ qIACL-

tJJCIL WCIJ uq AUUCC OLGWLU

ffOfT2JA rwbLoAc2 qic bcz.ouiiucC o qic boi.popo o u rnAc2toL Mpo LJJC2 bowoJio2 ccoqm to

Page 7: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

uq iuAcgwcug obboi.gmnhlc2 unpg jcq go powc pine2U'1 (JgJ3) LUC2 qmg TUJCagOL C2XLC go pcqc iu2g nmnwcibircq CUC2 in gpciL cou2nwbglou

bnLcpwu boMcL u2Jc2 cuuog cxb1m rye powe pin ain njjA2bcc1cq cuei.J cdnijtpumu

o rye rn,eagoi. qowc2gic cnLLcucA COOL uq Jbjw2 (j) apoii OL nJ2gucC gpg pcqiu

pvc i.cgnum ucguc1A cou.cJ9gcq miry rye LCflW2 go pnumu cbigj uq Miry rye bnLcJm2iu bOMCL

g1c2 LJJCL gpu lu qowcapc 2ccnupe2' LOL inauce ig osTjq 2CCW IJJOLC JIyCJA rpi 0LC1u 2ccnugic2

/upJc2 oijeu ecw go iwbjA gpg rnAc2goL2 ponjq JJAC bOLpOjIO2 OAeLMc1pgeq in OLC1U accnu-

obgm,j CACU gponp ULJ(C2 C IJJA IUgeLSgeq 1JrCUJUOIJJJA HOMGACL pcqiu iu2g aggc

peqe 9uJ2g mmugicibgeq cpue in aggc /1rnpJc2 ig w iej pe qng inngcq q1ACL21JC9gI0U 12

ecg u wAe2goL2 exbccgeq rigijig2 uq pence uii8pg ecg pci. boi.qpjio P1 2CU1U MCLC IUAC&gOL2

LCWLU rpr coaejgeq igp rye 2bog wge o iugci.ear ne cmj gpinjc o wvuA /upJe2 gpg

ryeii. cniieucA rpg pn i.egnw uc rmcj? cou.cgcq igp rye i.cgni.u go gpciL pnwmi cbigj OL gjmg

sug go pojq boi.qpjio rpg ta pcqcq iu2g mJ9upcibgeq cpuue in rye bni.cpw bOMeL o

cg poqiu go peqe iug cjmuc2 in /upJc2 gpg UJUCL go gpeur3 EOL ruagncc rye unpg

uog LIJ1( boi.qopo2 ccoi.qw go gpeii. wcu i.cgnuj uq AUUUCC o LCgITUJ jpcA unpg gijoL gpen.

jcgrou png gpg uimiA cgoi. goegpcL NCCcCq In cxbIiwu ig ()ue bo22ipiJigA ia rpr IuAe2goL2 qo

uqn2gI.r9jrCq conugue jrng cu ir um? /CJJ pe rpr uo 2uIJe cgoi. cxbJulu2 gpi2 jnmgeq q1ACL21-

i puc go wgeurngioimj lnAe2gwcug cuuog joue cxbjiu rye jiungcq ¶ACL2ic9giou "4w!'

tnry cdnigie2 gjmn ,iry apoLg-geuli woueA umqccr In2gLmucugw

nwcug couimcw one p go bLoMqe i.vgioue MpA oLeiu wAeagOL2 onjq pe woi.e g U2y

umgrrugic2 uq pence qo uog Lcgjecg bogcupj boiigicj U2J2 cucc go wujcc rye bojipcj u

rjeq wgcwgiouj? v bi.opjew iigp gpi2 i.nweug 12 gpg woucA wm.Jceg? aecw /ie-njge&rcq g

jou gpI2 bojiric u2Jc qoc uog IJmgcupC IUAC2gOL2 MIJJ joo jqce rycA 9LC Iu2nJ!cieurJA qIACL2I-

exbccgcq egnw OU rycti. OLCiIi 2JLC2 onjq pe JOMCL gpij rye exbccgcq LCWW oi. Lciqeug

ejg rpr gpeLc 12 2OWC 2UJJJ bi.oppipA gjmr rpcA wipr pc ri.onpje i.ebgugrn gJJCIL pojqw rye

Page 8: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

8

r012 JCIJO!A WOLC spear one 20CJ( suq OIJJCL2 JCUOft WOLC sponr SIJOWCL 20CJCIU8 fJJG JJOIIIC p1st pon (j) bLoIiqc2 s q)usunc uoi wiousj cxbccrsr!ou2 uioqcj ,ipctc 2OWC iuic-rrnu woqc iipjcp 52 s powc p1s suq sjo wsjcc bLcqjcrou2 sposu csbwi joiiz rjrpon8p nor anq)-,Ouncq sug S 0WC p132 LCV1J2 RLCWJSIJ suq cso (j) psic su wjcUcwboI2J uoa) L3lOU3J cxbccjs-jJOWC p32 CU1CL8G2 J'OIA (J3) 92 S COIJflUflOfl2-PWC woqcj CLC iuAc2roL2 sic s2uwcr4csjj) in-cpu8 (j) qcIcjob2 s wo-bcLioq u2JcA SCR uozA wjousj cxbccrsrlou2 cdrnppunw liJ7CLC S

cdaippumu bucc2 sic nor r,pjjA iccsjrn

s22ocisrcq gp w exiarcuce o Jutoulisriou 52?iJJwcruc2 sic nor q1AcL2iJspjc suq bLoNqcq qisr in

b11c2 Wr jJ0JqnJ 0Lc!IJ 2CCIIUPC2 12 1J21(JCL qJSIJ jJ0jq1u qOwc2ric 2CCIILWC2 bloMqcq rpsr we U2je2

qcur IUAC2OL2 jAbicjjA jcuom WOLC sponr s 2ccdniA 111911 1OLC1U flJAC2OL2 ncp 911 sbbioscp nzi-

ro 522fIUJC wr qic wiouiispou 2G2 0 qOWC2pC 9uq 0LC1IJ WAC2jOL2 qICL RI 2I1CJJ S MSA rpsr Lci-

LcjSric o jOLciu 1U!C2rOL2 u SCLUSTAC sbbLoscp ro cucsrc qiccur bLcqIcpAc ql2rupnpou2 12

2flIJCA cMqcucc C0U212CIU "nw we /JCM 4j151 IUAC2OL2 sic woi.c ob11uiar!c sporir c1i oNu umijccr

rnuj o jsbSuc2c 2siC2 rpsu yuJcuCsu IUAC2rOL2 2PII1CL KOU-?S suq j2!U2fl! (j )bioMqc 2OWC

conjq pe nuqciarooq i sbsucc fliAC1OL2 sic 2np2mJps1JA UJOLC obruw2pc sporir rpc cxbccreq LC-

si2ric wr we jJ0jIU2 Ojsbsuc2c WAC2rOL2 in we n suq we pojqm82 rnAC2rOL2 in

cur connjuca pS1c qqccur bLeqicriAc q12upffJOu2 OL aroc LCWLIJ2 ELCIJCP Jq b0LP5 (Jooo)

JJJC j52 SACWIC 0 LC2CSLC}J OL cxbjsiijiu8 weponic p152 5221U11C2 rpsr WAC2jOL2 Low qicL-

icjsrcq mijp rpc LCUIUJ rowe fl wsijccr boi.qppo oiji.sqcq 2GC11Ur1C2

we n wsijccr boi.qopo orisqcq 2ccnuc2 pccsnc weLC1UJ ro pnwsu csbirsj sic 20 pipj?

9LnC rpsr rsjqu 'uro sccomjr w icrnw ro pnuisu cbijsj ponjq jcsq fl 1UAC2OL2 ro pe 2j1014 RI

bLcqlcr2 S LCACI2C jJOWC p152 EWSHA SXrCL suq 1CUIISIJIJ (J3) suq BiCL cunsuu K" (J)

1UAC2rOL2 SiC WOLC U2J(-SACL2C rJJSU rnAc2roL2 "4W JO8SLIrJJUIIC nrijirA 92 OUC MOJTJq cxbccr JJ12 woqcj

woqcj bbsj (j bLoMqc2 S woqcj MCLC JJOWC p152 CWCLC2 oiijA i U2JC SACL2!OU I

Page 9: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

OUC iwcqq Cxbcc iuJC2roL2 ro 1IJAC2 111 UJllfnSJ puqz pcqcq 911Th oLc1u cxcpøuc uyJJC UJ91OL cdinO W9LJCC2 HCUCC 1 OLCiI1 CXCJI9UgC U2JC 12911 O92SCJC tO IIIICUJ9tIOIJ q1ACL21tJc9DOI1

? oLCiucxcpuc u C911 pC cjiunustcq rponp pcqiu cpcsbj) OL J9LC pojqiu o 2GC11UI C2 iJ.Ow

wjA xucc jci 9uq /ACLuCL (J?) qocnuiciu pj 4oLc1u rnAC210L2 psqc WOLC J9U qowcapc

O JJLGC jThC2 Oj,91JJCL2 jO U1OIJ 1IJ1C2WCIJ q12Cfl22cq flJ JJC J1iCLU1LC OU1J9fl? OL IJj0L-

jc uom cou2iqcL pc nubc ou c boi.qppo oqowcRpc 2cc11u11C2 pcq pA OLC1U 11JIC21OL2

boi.qpjio wn WCLCOLC pG qjc wjccj boiojio oqowcpc uejA 2ccnI.gic2

lutcuj9uolmj nmcapucu jj RThG2tOL2 goq qc 2911JC boi.qpjio o qowcuc u21cA 2Cc11upc2 uq qmt

M}JCLC M 12 tpc bouiojio o qowcapc 2CCnupG2 pcjq pA jj iuAC2OL2 p1 qJc 9p2CIJCC O SLUCL2 O

JI A1I1(I)

2CUCC Op91.UCL2 J0 11UCUJIOUJ WAC2WJCIJI 12:

tOL2 pic tpc esuJG jmctioif tpc boiopo o qowcpc 2CCJt]C2 pjq pA 11MC210L2 113 WC p-

1IJCC MC 9221U1JC 1jJ9 2CCnL1A LGtITUJ2 91.C IT1JCOLLC!tC CLO22 COJUUUC2 9uq 1J9 JJ WAC2-

WO1AC 9L12C2 1OL 922C1 poJqw2

niijiiA fflJC11O1i /JtqJ OflL venujbiiou jm wAc2joL2 pic jo9u1mnc npj'A rmcpoim uo pcqiu

ACCtOL T + B' uq 139UCC-c0A91J913cC umtux j uq (vt) u rnAcjo1.2 pvC Lpc 2UJC JOUfl111C

2Ccnut1c2 nucoacjcq (v3) 2ccnutA bucc2 ojjom io13oI.uJ91 q1p2iou2 iitp couut quj

9LC oujA tiio COflUUC2 tpc qowcatic conup.A uq jpc OLCiU conuti.A (v) qowcapc uq pLciu

U1911CC12 LC WtCLUTOIJJJA rnc1.9cq jO 21WbJi C 91JJA212 flL1PCL MC 211C i9i (VI) CLC

20 22flUJC }J9 JJ 111AC21012 C9IJ OLLOM OL cuq JJC qowcic U2JCjLGC LC B' 20 JJ91 W0UC

ftC 9flfIWC 1MA 10LG1gU CXC}J91JC U2j( 2113CC i C91IIJOj pc 913 Cxb[9u9tIOu 0L 13C JJOWC i92 /AC

iutCw9pou9J boi.qppo CpOiCC O1. J3oJqw2 0 2CCIILIpC2 pA OLCTU IUAC2tOL2 'U tJJC qOwC2tic conutLA

2 2CCt1OU MC bLoAiqc 9 arwbjc woqcj to 2JJOM tpc IuJbJlc9tiou2 o CXi2t1U woqq o

Gctiou 1 ' JwbiG woqcj o boI4(oJio Cpo!Cc !U (OLG!U coniip.A

Page 10: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

-ni 1snoi3m33rn 03 irrid in&ftinia £ 3d 03 me ion ob 23203 notr3S2nsT !siin31flib wioivni

.2ia'IRn n1wo11o1 3(13 ni ii1idi22oq 21113 31oni 31013131113W bnE 1n3m123v

3d or ansi 1d.t 32o3 3viiEqi2ath rm.ra qmul b3XuI £ 21 13b12n03 w a13md lo qi 12111 311T

b1womi £ 3d itfim aiifF .ifwo3 3lia3mob 3113 in 32vni n io32vth ni3io1 £ 31o13d bisq

na 3(12 3101311 a13nua 31323mob luods rris1 03 .sd lola3vth ni31d1 3(13 IZIII (13112 12O3 fIOili2ilJp

inuoms 3113 no bn3q3b ion a3ob bus aio32vni niio1 us io1 31(152 3(13 21 1203 airli II .m3di iii ie3vth

3113 3a11533d iinuo3 a132mob 3(13 in tavn1 03 Ion 3200(13 11kw diisw wol 1131w alolaovth rb b33avth

norflaiup3s 3(13 io1 m3113 3Isan3qmo3 03 3n313ffl1m ion 315 noiis3iha-rnvth Isnoiisn-i3Ith lo 21113n3d

naa oa 8thob 'd bus a1ii 3lia3fffob ni iavth nsa ioIavm n8i31o1 £ Isrli 3ion aiifi a oT .12o3

325313111 thff .oilolJ-ioq 13(1 no fnuI b3333qx3 3(13 325313(11 43153w b3323vrn lo '3iIiIs1ov fl3v13 £ iol

-ob 3di ni Iavth 03 blsq 3d 01 asil isdi 3203 b3XiI 3113 Ianths b&ns1sd 3d 03 25(1 11111331 b3133qx3 m

311 111w 1inuo3 3iia3mob 3t11 in 8xuia3vth moil flLS 33fl 3113 a1oi23vrn 311102 i&1 .11nU03 31323m

abloñ 3(12 bits )IflU2 21 1203 b3X11 3(13 '(IirI1JO3 3i123m0b 3111 111 2323vrn 10123Vffl r1131O1 £1! .3Vi353fl

:!in3up3anoD .oiloThoq 33)hsm alla3mob 3(13

i3nuoa 3Ila3rnob di m 3nra3vrn b 3203 b3xlI £ tfiiW.(I3bom 3203 kw) I noi3kaoqoi

...m < W diIsw 113kw 210323vrn (1813101 Isift (13112 W 41153w1o 13v31 bLorfa3ldi £ 21 313111

Ion ob 210323vfl1 (181310113(130 3113 bus (I1nuo3 aIia3mob 3(13 in 3av

in b11bom 3(10 3113 21 l3bianoa 3W 3f13111323Vf11 IsnoIisfn3lrn 03 al3rnsd lo 3q3 bnooa 3rlT

21 isift ain3mia3Vrn 11813101 113113 no 1203 tli3I3Wbs3b £ if1ua aloia3VflI 13qsq isril nI (dl SQl) slui2

3ffi moil 131111) sm anoiiiaoq iioila iol 1203 iff8i3Wbs3b 31ff .b3323VW RUJOITIS 3113 03 Isnoi3ioqoiq

-as OW 1oi3wIi (1313101 iol e1sa-3iod alidldoiq nsqst 33rn2 .anoinaoq 8(101 idI 12o3 Id3iowbsob

3noI no eaol id3i3Wbs3b 3113 isdi bus 331(111th 21 anoiiiaoq tioda idI aao1 id3f3wbs3b 3f13 Ififli 31311 3mua

d b1311 3d Ion 'sm 23dfl11332 311102 aaol id3iowbs3b £ 113112 1111W .b3iaovrn isilob 13 3 21 anoiiiaoq

01

Page 11: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

anthiod mo iftn3d no1Ifiiivib xfi dw ano dt d 111w ithu3 3231fF .eioivth nio1 idi3wbb 3di 313dw 3di nI .tao id13wbb 3di 1o iotvth 3di tan3qIno3 ton ob m3di

-ob b oiloThoq 1mitqo 3di n3rfi 2311u33a adnob Its ni tzvni 21ot23',th ni31o1 tirfi f13U2 2i t203

ni31ob i61 akinu 3th b oiloThoq IBmiiqo 3dt briE w eiotth aitamob ioI 23dr1u332 31123m

:d nvi 51E aw ioivni

= w I1-v,I () (I3—L4)V = (I3—il)V'I

r115!oI .33sq2 33nsi1sv-nsm ml oiloThoq 3n33nEt 3di 21 2io3vth 3ita3mob d b1311 oiloThoq 311T

310ffl I3XEnoinoqo1q 31a tsdt tdi3wbb it d3 ud oiloThoq tsdi blod ton ob ioivth

:a airit iii ablod t1ui üwollth 3rlT .afnut3l b3333qx3 wol 3vErI 3E113 2313r1u33a io± woino

31323mob b oiloThoq 3113 flO nlut3ri b3tqx3 3dT .(I3bom 3203 trf3i3wbsU) noi3iaoqoi1

b33qx3 3113 nsrli 13ti 21 a32o. tdwhb bo aaoia aio32vni ni31o1 ',d bI3lf a313n1J332

ni31ob Ii 1311hu1 .eio32vth 3lia3mob 'd b1311 nithua 3LIe3mob lo oiloThoq 3(13 no nlui3l

3it23mob b oiloThoq idt n3dt ithu3 aiia3mob Its bo 2tnuoms 3vltiaoq blorf 21o323vm

2f yJ3flU332 Ii 210323Vfl1 31323m0b b oiloThoq 3(11 liEdi I tflU332 b iom asif 231iflIJ332

-ob lo oiloThoq rnshEv mwnurnm rD ml nsdt i313 at oiloThoq '3n33ns1 3113 ml 311313w

.a3drIua3a alia3m

di tuods a31u231 3vitsliIsup thstdo 03 tluofflth i3i 15113 wod (VV 1) aaol bns 1!oSI bns (VVQ I) bbul

-311fl3v3k1 .oiloThoq 33riEflZv-ffluffihIUm di iob nvo aoi1oThoq tn3iaIfi3 ml anoifloqoiq tn3rnia3vrn

-X3 (13111 (131w 2313r1u332 30102 lo anibIod 13115(02 WEd taum oiloThoq 33nsnsv-mumimm 3113 2231

b3b3qx3 wol 1131w 23ithlJ2 131130 bo anibIor1 igis1 bris oilthtioq nns3 3(13 nsdi aniuth b3333q

H

Page 12: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

'3

9Ofl 9 ROCjJ9RflC9flA CJJeUIU quij AGCgOLCJqUJ9IJ (1o8Q) jOL LCRIIJL2 011 bOLOjl0 RCJGqIOU IU 9 OIJC-COIIIJL1A 2CWU !!4JCU IUACRfOI2 JJiC o jcuW9WCi botcopo u w qowc1c com& 2GC 9J20 Dc'cwbIc (jg cuuouc (jg) uq oqiu uqro (j) bLoJIqce ncp u cxcuaiou jpL jJC C9RC MjJCLC LOLCI1J J1IAC20L2 CsIJ ouj) jJojq w qowcepc

LCWWR o RCCIILWCR iu powc conuu.A- H0MGACL t cu pe 2}JOMU 4p9:

1U pon1 113G qI2Wpn1Iou Oj1C LCWLIJR 0!WC2C RCCI1UIC2 W W LC pon1 we qIzPipnflou oupc

OW JIR woqej 12 JJ9 IOLC1IJ WACRIOLR jiojq CMCL qowcapc RCCIIUpC2 GCWI2C WCA LC WOLG mICCL-

tOLGIU WAC21OL2 C2WG O W cxbccicq LC11W2 C wc cxbcccq powc p1e LC2fljPU

113 UJC qi0njf 1UAG2iOL2 C2UWC2 ocxbcccq LGWUJR qICL OW W WIG cxbcCcq LGUIUJR IuCC

MJJCLG WC WIG qiç ACCIOL Cj39Uc2 2OCJJ92PCJJA OAGL IUJc 9uq LGC emnj cenj v uA boiuj

w uc wcu 92 w opwni U.JOLc qw i MOflJ PC boaRipjc o cxicuq we mmjARiR

wur p3 JJJQ C92C MC COU21qCL MJJGLG W rnAC2IuJCIJ obboLUnulA 2C1 12 COIJ29IJ1 IUAGRiOLR CACUWJJA

2J30M2 J191 WAC2OL2 9JMA2 JCUOM iP p!Ic A9U9UCC-COA9U9UCC urnqjx pn 1301 WC WIG cxbcccq LC-

o w bcuoq O jUIJC 2113CC WC 2L O WG!L 2uibjc p1 coupIJnonR-Uwc 2CUIna ll1II!9W2 (J)

nec ((--J)\)A wc AU9uCC-CoA9u11ucG W91UX ojJCiL bLCCJICPAC q121IpS1Iou MJJCLC 112 c jeuqIIJOM 1}JC WIG qIRllTpnpou O JJC LCf1UJ2 MC CmJ 112C /Jijj1UJB (J w 2JJOM JJ OLG1I3 1UAC2.OL2

CII3 IIJACRIOL2 cu oujA fl2C IJ!20L1CI fl1OLUJJ]OU O OLCC92I LCUTUJ2 uq MJJCLC qowcac WAG2OL2

flJAC2OL2 pon we qI2uJpnou o c LGWUJR O qowcRlic RCC11LIITGR pi W CXI1CWG CSRG MJICLC 0L-

riA MC COU21CL jJC C92C MJJCLC OLC1IJ WACRIOLR 91.C jGRR MCjj nupuiicq 111913 qOWGRiIC

qCqMcT}u C0212 o pojqu IIJCRC 2GC1ILWCR

uo U2J bLcwimu j0L 14OLC1U WAC2OLR WL JOM CXbCCIGq CXCGRR LCUJ2 9LC O2C pA we

M9Lq M1i1' p9UJcL2 10 IU1CUJ10U9j wAc2WicIU 210C1C2 1j1 j1Vc jOM cxbccicq GXCCRR LCUIUJ2 C9UJ

OjiO IMOLC MC1JCq lOMLq2 213J9jj JU1J2 qmu qowcuc IIJACRIOL2 JJJC LC92OU 1OL qiIR JR RlL91jJOL-

1CU WCLG 12 2JC GCC1 113 CxbCCCq LcwuJ2 WIR onq iwbjA 1pLcJu 1UAC2OL2 pojq bog-

LCj1W2 2113CC i exbcccq LGWW 12 JOMGL qmu we jsucucA bo1.ojioR cxbccicq eriur jo wcx-

Page 13: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

uoq pJ pc jj wbjc AcL jj MC jmic q OL j UJJ2 uq j Uii2 AC WI22IU q pi

cu ipc bLoboUiou O UJ32 OL MJ3ICJJ qw LC UJ1221IJ Jj2 2LCqIjA jmonpon ont. wbjc be.

OLC1U oiAUCL2JIIb OL WJCC1 ijnc o cdniA q i unvu ji.ow ipc ii i mmieqicjA bb-

UIIUJPCL O UIJ2 OL MJJICJJ OLCiU OMIJCL2JJJb 12 A11P1C miq IIJC UfIUJpCL O UIJ OI. MIJ!C1J

jpiC j bi.oiige 2I1WUJL) O OUL q 1 JJC 2CCOUq COJflWI? MC 2OM OL ccp we

i bioiiqc iOLCTu omIJeL2pzb o ipe cug o we U2cJ ?ci (Mplcp 12 tcp 3J OL umuAbmc2C

bbcL MC fI2C we q LCbOLICq OIl IJJC2C flC2 MJJICJJ !1P1C GLOW 1 jO J J }OL ecp

ipi ow c c-niu ci v1cC ICP ccu (bvcvb) cw pJ ipie

LcboL pLCiu oMJJcL2pIb uq i cu PC COJJCCiGq ow miunj i.cboi. suq 2ocJc rnqc2 JJJ12 OliJJCL-

21UCiIOU2 OU OLC1IJ OMlJGL2}J1b OLCIIJ OMJJCL2 O 2JLC2 OUJJ CCOL? O 2JJLCJJOCL2 E1LW2

pc oiucapib o 112 2JLC2 9WOU A9U0f12 ccouCa O OMIJCL2 IUCC IJJCLC si.c (uouprnqiu) LC-

pj JC2 LC LC121CLCq jJ312 WSC2 14 b0221p1C OL UIJ O JIJOM we qiaupnnouoGCpoiJ 4 jpc qiv

opo pcq pA qowc2ic wAC2oL2

C1IJ IUAC2OL2 JJOJq bowopo oqowcjic 2Ccnupc2 qmi LCL cxbccicq LCWUJ we bOLl-

pojq ipc awc bouiojio o qouJcapc 2CCflu1C2 MCLC2 w° qeqMcJp co w0qe bLeqlcr jrn OL-

JJJC 2rwJc co uq qic AIIJIJJCUC wouIJpou woqcj bicqic ijm OLC1U mq qowc2vc WAC2fOL2

jO 2mmm1JC III Jl2 2CCOU MC CXWTUGq pi.cC q1CLCIJ w0qCJ2 JJ jcq0 JJOUJC p12

IVC ISIC qI2LIpnuOu OLCUIUJ2

poq ipc 2WC boi.ojio oIqowC2:ic 2cCflu11C2 B qowcauc UThC2tOL2 C2C WAC0L2 fIJOM

pOfIi: qowc2ic 2Ccnwic2 uq OLUJ IJJOLC bLcci2c buoL2 fl2flJ Jnaoucj qi oujA wcA

bL0b021l1013 3 (y2AuIwCL1c !IJTouMou woqe) i0tCU WAC2JOL2 JVC qIT2C bLIOL2

Page 14: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

'4

12 UO V911PJC qic cuq oc U2CJ1221U wc9U2 pc Uf1I1ICL O O2CLA9OIJ2 flJ MJJICJJ OLCiU o!AlJcL2plb 01. umLJcc AJflC o cdniA

ACLC I, 3 ..Q Q 'tO

(13)

1001 14?3 '105

(so)

J000 J93 300 4Q(83)

1080 134! 3XJ ?05

(?3)

1088 1300 3X 4?0

(xx)

lo8,x !38 43?

(03)

1308 ?1(100)

J08? 1308 ?I?

(5!)1084 JIOJ !F31

(3?!)1083 1194 ?0 J04Q

(33?)

1083 J!J8 44? 880

(309)

108! 1113 'tOg

(!xx)

1080 !!0 5x3 480

(Jo!)

loXo 1080 330 35?

(530)

lo,x8 1043 33? 330

(3?o)

1014 33Q 9•03

(SQX)

088 534 49X

(38?)

8Q8 34Qt,\O 4Q4\O

AL (w22rn J0LCIU omicl.2plb OLC1IJ oInucL2Jnbwb1c 2ic dnJJA-Mcip!cq

Edn11A-uqAnc-!icip!cq oL©iu oHJJcL2pTb OL uouijuucij buc2c juu pAAcer

jpjc j

Page 15: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

CCn2C IIJGA (12C OLCTIJ ACTCJC O WAC JU WbmJ jc uo cc iA o pc IwboL-

pc comicq qowcanc rnAc2oI2 mq 2OWC qowczpc rnAcajoI2 conq PC comicq 2 OLCiU WAc2OL

iJJ91 ! conjq pc qJC CS2C JmI WCLC C LCbOWU CU012 OL P!C2qiCq 2OWC OLCJIJ WACjOL2 O

!LUJ2 pAC unw q rn rpc jj Acsu o orn. wbic bcuoq VIJOiJJCL i22flC !AUJJ IJJC qw MC

CdnflA-MCiJucq UIC2ULC O OLCTU O!AIJCI2JJIb Mortjq U01 CJJIJC OlIL COUCJn2IOUW H0MCtCL CM

IJJLJCCI AJflC q i UJ1IU pJ OLCJU OMuCLp1b qw i AIJJC UJ ow. cowbniuou2 o qic

onjq PC flIJCLC2PWUJ 0LCIU IUAC2WCIU /JC onuq pOMCACL qm nicjnqiu 11JC LWR OL MTC

ILL WPJC 1 II. WC2C UUIJ2 pVC IJJOLC 9LCIU rnAC2WJCIJI 1JJIJ 1J1C UUIJ2 IT2cq LU j)J WpC JJCIJ MC

JJJC JUIJ2 MLIJJ UJI22IU q9 LC U01 rncjnqCq LU pc C21flhJC2 O jOLCIU 1UJCiUJCIJ1 LCbOLcq

boI.qpro2

AC21OL jmj MC MIJJ qI2Cfl J3LOflJJOfIj qic bbCL: EOLCIU WAC0L2 OACLMC1JJ1 JI2C JUIJ UI 4J3C1L

1C Oo\ 11312 qIIJCLCIJCC LCJCC12 913 1Wb01491U CImLc1CLJapC O JJC b0140p02 jicjq pA ZOLC1U iii-

MC1JJq WC2IILC O OLC1IJ O/AUGI2}nb 12 JMA2 J91CL pu qic cdfl9JjA-MC1JJiCq IJJC2flLC pA

W12 UJLJC1 cb1i9-jrIow //C bLoMqC ipia WC2I1LC UI IJJC j2 COJflIIJU O pJC I. JJJC A9IflC-

}AC q uq cowbnc WC UJLJCC1 AjflC O 1J1C 2JJ91C2 jiCjq pA OLC1U rnAC210L2 bCLCCUC o

IUAC2 iii pbu CCOUq ouc conjq qq nb pc uiqcC c9biJiiou o jj pC LW2 OL MJflC MC

V91 PLUCL2 10 UI UJ11OIJ9J IUAC2IJJCIU CCLC2C qaor1pOn WC JØ2 0L rnICa10L2 M91U1U O

1OJCAO rocr EXCP91 uq qicA LflC qJ ncp bucw !2 C2bCCT9JJA bnnpu iii ppi o qic

jyI2 pnwbcq-jmbcq bgcuz ra jo qocriuicucq pA LLCUCP 9uq bO1CLP (ioo) pcq ou LCcq

pmiibcq-jrnbcq bgcw: OLCf&r oMuCLaJnb JL2 IUCLC2C2 913q WCU 1!2 LCCp1IJ bCSJ LU J

cdfIJA-MciJucq WC2flLC O OLCIU OMUCL2pIb 12 drnjc 2UJjJ UCACL CXCcCq Q0\° U CP!P!

COU2WIC 913 CdrL9flA-MciJJCq VCLC jJJI2 UflUJCL 12 IACU 0L CCp ACL UI qic qnq cojrIww JJIC

E!L21 OUC conq cowbric qic bCLCCUWC O 2}LlC2 OMILC pA OLC1U IUAC2OL2 0L cscp Jun msq

J0 op91u 2UWUmLA 2P2UC2 O OLC1U oMlJcL2plba OUC coajq bLocccq Lu 9 jMo q1CLCU mA

COIUL LU qiC JL2 29UJbJc Ac9l MC JAC qw OL gQg uu uq UJ1221U q oL

Page 16: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

JQ

cc yjur jjc uq 2UIJS (j jOL 1I UJ?2T2 oJ b9UC2C OU2POLG

iiou uqinj pon \0owc cjccpic boMei. uq S2 rnqn2&

1 w OMIJ C22 iJJU \0 owe LSU2bOLW10U uq cowwmnciou rnqn2fL1c2 usijce cbiwps-

ML2 WIJI1CflLUJ LW2 LOL 1U2mJCC IU MJJGIJ OLC1U WAC210L2 peq !J31o\0 owc UJL-

W q 1p9 0LC1U IUAC2IOL2 qI3UJ1CJJA nuqcLMe1u LC&1JGq IUq112111C2 miq J1VC P' O-

AUI0U 111 OLC1U O/A1JCL2JJ1b pow lu1L0fl}J iIUJC iiq CLQ22 rnqfl21uC if 12 C2bCCI9jJA cjc ow

qnaILA LC 2flthL12!UJ) A0JPjC JJJC qw bLG2CUICq ff1 1T112 2CCIIOU 2JJOM 111Sf iJICLC 12 2fl2UPJ

iwboi.wu 10 U01G JJ0MGAGL JJT W qcIIpou2 0L W 9UC1TJWLC 0LC2& U2PCLA uq umnu rn-

bcLccuw8c o we iuqnei.A JUJO2 LGC 1UJC2 we bCLcGUC W pojq 0 W M0JC WIG if 12

0LC1U OMUCL2pJb 12 UCr1IWLC OLC2& 2pCLX uq WIUW MCLC 111 J 0LC1U 11MC210L2 pojq

V 211L bucuj pojq 0L C0U2W1C110U ujjA w rnqnaiiA MU w JLC2 bo2iWc qcMIou2 o

C 2CCOL CICLA ACL OL L2 C!J31 ACL2 0O11L miibjc uq 0ACLMC1JJi 11 GACLA Ac ijcwiq2

uq rnJqcue!p w 2CLAICC2 2ccoL CACLA Acm pn one rnbu2rnJA cA nuqcz.Mcij w LCj Ce-

WAC20L2 0ACLMC1p we W9'1JflIJ1CI1L1U 2CC0L CAGLA Act mJqcuicip wiuce CcqoL CACLA Aci

LC 21u]mJ bgewe 0 0LC1U OMLJCL2}flb 9CLO2C rnqneuiee JJ1L0f1JJ0fl1 OflL ewbje bCUOq 0LCIIJ

mqneiLA2 AJflG-MC!JJ1Gq 0LC11J O/AUCL2JJ1b uq ipC 0ACL!j AJflG-MCip1Gq OMIJCL2JJIb JJJGLC

MJJ01C LULJCG1 MC fOOJC T 2CbLC wqnepice EOL ccp niqneu.? MG LCb014 W qCLCUCC pcMccu

bLo/iqea qUJCLC1U bCLebCCllAG 011 0LGI1J OMUCL2JJIb peIGq o joojqu we

LOjC 111 C qCcLG2e JU IOLC11J OMIJCL2JJlb rn we eecouqpjopc jgeqocnwcucq iii jpc j

IIJACCJOL2 enpapncq 0j2}J0LC Cdnu?-jiujccq qcp 0L qowcepc apLce jJne enpepnjiou ujA b1A

qcp MCLC 2UJJJCL 0L 0LCiI1 1UAC20L2 w1J we OP2WCJCC 10 pojqin qowCeiic 2JJLC2' 20 JJ 0LC1IJ

MI.L91Jj2 02p0LG Tn we eccouq 1JJ0we Iô802 if conjq pG we Op2iCJce 0 poqJu 02P0LC

i9uce opcec p1ec EmjIA bucec uue ieencq miionue o.cou/cu1pC qcp uq qcp ''w

Page 17: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

(jpjc coiuiuncq)

(i) (ioo) (oJi) (Js) (Jo) () (i) (38)

JOKO 35 105 0.00 085 530 -3fl(i) (os) (zoo) (i4) (io) () (J) (to)

Jo8K 500 010 1X4 001 158 -384 -351 F1.X

(14) (io) (g'i) (140) (is) (xo) (ia) (33)JO8 O4 181 020 O5 4O -34X -3 -J50

(J) (ni) (oQ) (130) (lo) (.ix) (j) ()IOKQ -3.01 -OO 0o -0Q0 434 -?54 -3O 533(i) (115) (oii) (is) (io) () (u) (3d)

1O8 -5O -455 J40 -58 315 -48 -.R5

(i) (104) (tQ) (Io) (ii) (8) (13) (31)1084 -588 -oQ J8Q -43 040 -O -03? -Q08

(i) (100) (en) (los) (w) () (13) (30)

J083 -JQ4 -403 180 -fl3 -003 101 -883 -3O(1?) (oo) (..o3) (os) (w) () (it) (six)

1083 051 -41 18 -i5 -JO -XO -o -103(1?) (100) (.o3) (03) (J) () (14) (s)

1081 -03 -51 18Q -4QQ -3 -J1 -38(i) (los) (.s) (o3) (w) () (13) (5?)

1080 ?O. -343 J38 -3o -5•03 -431 -4?0 0R1(14) (op) (xo) (80) (iv) () (13) (se)

JOO QO? -1Q3 03 -084 -001 -58? -3.oQ -0.10

(14) () (wo) (83) (ic) () (13) (se)JO8 3O -103 0..O -O8Q -5•13 -300 -3X3

(14) (we) (38) (.s) (w) (3) (13) (s3)1o 088 -3?3 0.00 -033 -184 35Q 3?4 -J4

(14) (o) (is?) (ii) (ic) ('is) (13) (ss)1OQ 5.X? -350 FOS -0?3 -JQO -411 -411 -53.

(1?) (is) (o8)1O? 310o\O 5?Jo\0 O4Q0\o J35\0 4V WV

AC1 ' V1111m !OUEI2PCLA cou2wlc-

IL!IJ I!! E2 CIOUnc- icci cowwnui-CL!IC2

EOLI.? pou boMcLVUCfl!WLC ,jpojc- jI.imboI4-

AJflC-MCi8jUGq JOLC1U O!MJL}J1b

EJcU

DC/U0U OJ GCp wqn2L)2 AjflC-Mctpcq OLCI1J OMLJCL2plb ow pc

LUIJJGI2

ciu omJcLp1b JOL UOUIJImUCIJbucc ijwi pA Ac uq pA wqnji.A jpc ewbjc aic i iiiDG!41OU oiccp uJqna11A AJnc-MciJucq 4oLciu oMucI2Jnb ow jpc oicijj jnc-icipjcq OL-

J_p1c 5

Page 18: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

AU91OU 113 JJC 21IJ 0 1J1C C0LLCJ91011 COCIJJCICIU2 qaopori OIIL UJbJC bcuoq uq c co1.LcJou

JpC LC211J2 flJ ipc 3 9LC auJcm LOL WO2L 0 JC ISupc2 couiqccq WCLC 12 9JUJO2 130

!CAC1

boiwc ipc 0.10 JCICJ 11uq pc UfUJJCL o coccici "u'ui ucimc w 0.10UCPAC EflL1PCL MC 20M OL CCJI COCWC!CU1 C IJJIWpCL 0 C0CC1C1U2 jJI LC 21J1ICIJqA

LCjU0U COCIC1CU1 MC LCbOI4 C IJJU1JCL 0 CPWC2 JJ SIC bO2IPAC suq C U11WCL

..LPC C0LLCJSP0IJ2 LcbOLcq lu pc 3 SIC iJJC 5ACL58C2 0 ACSI1A C0LLCJPOU2 EOL cscp COL-

10 W2flLC OfIL LC211112 c uo qolmimlcq pA 0n11CL2a MC OCfl2 013 3C bCSUJJSU LSUJC COU.C1SPOU

C1U C qs 52 0jjOM2 E112i OL CSCJJ AcSL wc cowbnic s COLLC5UOU wsiux narn JC2C pj2

oMlJcL2plb pA sbsucac Juqmiqn9j 1UAC210L2 wcc MC S1C s swbjc cowbu2cq o j Acst ic bLe-

3 bcaciu s cou.cjsiiou wswx pcccu oLciu oiuci.pib ijuu CpSlScicuapC23 miq

2JJ!b

CCpOU COLLGIS(!002 PG4JAGGU (OLG!IJ OMUGLJJ!b ULW CPSIBCIGL!?4!Ce vuq !uq!1qt18i OIAUGL-

VACLC J3I -50ô 153 -J? 03ô -?13

(i) (jso) (o) (IQ0) (3) (83) (ia) (t)1ôà1 1?3 0ct -03Q F33 3t0 004

(ie) (ii) (o81) (J) (So) (81) (i) ('13)boo 381 0to 101 030 1.00 -33. -58 -038

ACSL tç ApIJUJ p013 f1L11I 1c!1 E2W CS10U 052 CWCC2h1JJCLA Ou2w1c- jmjnsc- ' ic©i cown-E0LC2LA spon bomcL

VL1CnLWLC ThP0JC- ..L32b014- E1©LiC

ASJflC-MC1pGq 0LC1U OThUCL2plbDC/JPOU 0C5CJJ 1uqn2u.A2 ASflC-MC1pcq oLc1u oMucL2Jnb ijow c

(LSPJC coiurnrtcq)

Page 19: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

fiC 1mMjIIUJ 0 ipc q fl2IU WLJCC AJnc2:

pojqiuuq LCIflW ou 22C i bo2ipAc oL oiij? 14 ACL2 uq 2i1JIUCU11A 20 tOL ouh? 2CACU Ac2

1CW' pm wncp JC22 LC22iACJA p1 bL1Cr1JL IpC LCJIJ0U pcjccu 1buc2c rnqiiiqnj rnAC20L2

pip cnu.ctu isio' uq pip LCWLU ou 2C buc2c rnqLMqn! WAC20L2 ojjom pC 2WC b-

iLqTU0IJ CC0flhI11J CL1CL1 E0LCiU IIIAC20L2 JJOJq WOLC 21m1C2 111 JU1J2 plC JOM IVII WICC CCOmWU UflWPCL2 MC J00J( T rnq1CC JJ 0LC11J WAC2IOL2 2CCJC 2C2 112IU

c1Cu a oo ucoui.

Act miq 1WJCSU1 JC 0.10 JCACJ CACLA ?CL 92O EOL rbmJc2c wquiqn9J mAcajo'. ipc cocj-

jcq Mip j0LC1U OMIJCL2JJIb fIG C0LLCJP01J C0CC!CIU JJ2 USIGLG o 03 j U ia bo2zlmc CACLA

c) ou ac jjn WCrILC o ccomum bciouuucc 12 ou boarpAcJA couC-

0L 0LG1LJ !IJAC0L2

!0U C0CIJC1CI 0L b5UC2C wqlAIqn9J OMJJCL2JJIb 12 2UmIICL j91J lpC VCLC C0LLCJ10U C0CCiCIU

iqj o/ucL2pTb c LOIJjA bo2ipAc1A LCfG 10 pc flLLGIU pm 1IJ JC ACLC C0LLCt-

I!P!1!PC2 2 WC2f!LG 0j 2p014-LmJ uuucrnj JC9jJ 0 flJ• E0LC1U omICL2Jnb MCJ

P) C1LLC1U LP0 iiic fl2G WC Cfll.LCIU LP0 qcucq 2 JC L10 o cnu.Cij 2C12 jo crnicu

I0LC1IJ OMIJCL2p1b 12 UJOLC 2C112iAC 0 jcicisgc

CiCU 0L bnJCC wqIAiqrw WAC0L2 12 poiu pj pc A9Jnc 0L 0LC1U 1UAC210L2 C1U JJ

JJ W2iW1i01rnJ OMIJCL2JJJb wfl pc boaicA C0LLCJC MIW jCACLC fIG ACLC c0Cj-

CL2JJ1b 2wcC b9uG2c rnqwqn 1UAC20L2 JJAG JJ0JflJ2 UCiAC C0LLCJG NUJJ JCACLG i 10t-

ACL UI OflL miibjc bcuoq WCLC 12 21IJ1C!Uj UCIAC LGII01J 1CMGCU jC1CLC 9uq 0LCiU 0i1I-

) rci.G FCACLC 12 WC2flIC 92 WG 13j10 01 10 I!P!P1!C2 uq j09J 922C2 EACLA

CL2 9Uq IOLG!U omJcL2plb:

C0CQC1C1U2 LC 9JU10a1 jMA2 21UIUCfflU /JC jJL2 Cou2iqCL 1J3G LCIP0U2 pciMcCu 9CC0flIUIU IJUI.u-

Page 20: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

30

L!LU 1'W IIIC BOY (BOY JL8CL iJI9U J OL 2WJJCL JJ9U -J) LC qccicq

0MJJCL2}JIb

uqtuqnj 1000

[011 11000 -0331

(01J4) (1l.10)UJLJ(C [1j] [j1]BO0J° 1000 -0140 01ô0

(ØIJQ) (84) ()jj)LGWUJ [012] [jj1] [31]EXCC22 1.000 -0548 00 -0023

(J313) (0112) (0112) (1j)A9L19UCC [j413] [Ø1jQJ [ØIJQ] [13141

Kqn1 1.000 010 -0302 -0443 0030

(j1) (j1) (1j) (j1) (Ø1J4)[1210] [J514] [j1jJ [J)J] [JJ]

1000 052ô 0085 -0310 05?4 -0150

(14) (o'J) (1) (14) (10) (1)Eo] [012] [1012] [Io] [j1] [N'3]

BOY 1000 001o -0Jö0 0113 0033 0'334 003

(Io) (o1s) (012) (41q) (Jo) (1210) (JbO)L0 [I10] [1si] [012] [1o] [j1] F11O] [j1JC1LLU U000 043ô 0035 -0123 -0032 0313 014 0138

(o1) (Oh1) (13) (1210) (g1) (Oh1) (1j) (o1Lx)Eo1J] EohJ] [jj1] [1Qo] [818] [Ø1j] [o1] [o1ix1

I•000 -028 -0Q8 003 03Q 00J3 -03ô -013 -0148

W° 014 COG4JC1CU MpICp UICU1A UCP 010 JGIJ1 LcbccpAcJ?

LGbCCiACJ? J1UJCL rn bLcupcc LC p02C 014 C0CCCIU2 M1C C t8mCmiijA boipic uq

bcuoq TU )WCJCC 1C woac 014 boaip,c C0C14CiCIU uqJ02C 014 UCMG cocIJc!cIu21

ACL 014 AcLJA bcuiiu COLLCJ9POU coccicu muou CACLj ,upjca qiiuu w iô-iô Ij9pJC 3

2JJlbOMUCL-

L0LG1811

(O1I)[o1I1-050

(J .L10)

[j1]0.3.x0

U o)[io1031

(J1O)[JQ)Ø]0308

(j1j)[jlj]-0128

(13)[131410082

(?111)[2111]

(1 1)

041.000

jupjca pibOMUCL-

L0LGIU

L8CfCAC-

WPO

CflI.LIuBOY B©W AU9IJCC LCWW

EXWLJCCIB00I 0

(wJ'0

2JJth0!1JCL-

13qmIqn

(Ø1j3)[1j]-013

Page 21: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

-ibm 3a3nsqzl bits ioiavth niio1 n33wt3d 33(131311th qwle £ ai 513th si3d 1o1 .siH (s

bits qiIf2l3nwo n3i3loI n33wid noiisI3TIo3 3viri2oq £ 21 31tfi is f io1 .2l3bLorl3iad2 Isubiv

quI2l3nwo 1subivthth 3nsqst n33wid noiisIsrlo3 3v11533fl £ 1 313di tc I roI iasiinoa it! .si3d

wol i1iq 2loiR3vrn Isubivibni 3a3nsqs1 aL3oi si3d (13111 iovsl aioivth n3131th as13dW .s13d bits

-31 b3izqx3 13113i11 vi1 ol boi2 si,d did rqx3 eloie3vth n3131o1 isili tn31x3 3di oT .a±oi2 sid

.I3bom 12o3 id3i3wbsb 3fftlo 3vinoqqu2 21 i1u31 eiiIi arriiji

-sqst bits aioivth n3131d1 n33w13d iasiinoa qw12 £ bnft w msA tsrisv 1sub12351 (d

quIal3nwo fl3i31o1 n30w13d noilsbno3 3v11533n £ 21 313th ais3 1 ioI .21o123vr1 Isubivibth an bits qitlarnnwo Isijbivlbth n33wi3d noilsI3noo 3viiieoq £ 1 313th 215 I io1 .nsnsv 1subiasi bits

.nsnsv 1subii

3w 25 iud 113w 3nob 3vSfI rsifi aboi2 3111 id3i3vrn,o aioiavth n3i31&I .muii a2xa (3

311 at bn3l 21oivth Iubvthrn 3aonsqst i2s1ino3 (1! .3ii2oqqo 3(11 oh 3di is mo is1 Iliw

.153' '(13V3 tori it £35 iud nshmino3

-rniiwo n3131o1 bits t,itsm 01 1ood n33wl3d noil.slsi 3viisn £ i 313dT .ihEm or loofl (b

3111 ni 3viri2oq 01 3v11533n motl 3tho3 bon3q 3lqmsa iuo 3nnub 233(15(13 no11slai 3111 13v3woH .q1112

bits 3vliisoq 1 noiislsi 3111 ioivth lsubivibni 323n5q51 iol iEs1ino3 it.! .3Iqrns2 1110 b is3 131s1

.1E3 13V3 13v31 01.0 3111 is 1n531u1n312

1133W13d 1(1313111303 £10135131103 33513V5 31ff .31U231 3233(10132 3113 21 ufF .3L115V i*tsM (3

(13V3 13V31 01.0 3111 15 ins3ftm3ia bits 3vliiaoq au! .

W.0 21 u1sv 33*rsm bits qufal3nwo (1313101

-111n312 bits 1E3 '13V3 3V1153311 21 210323v(U LsUbfVlbfli 323n5q51 101 111313111303 3(11 1asIino3 it!

3a311sq5t bits annft 3g151 1f1313W13VO 210123W!! (1315101 abiow it! .153 13V3 13V31 01.0 3(13 is ins3

-211) al3bom 331113 us diiw 1n33a12n03111 21113321111231 itiT .annft lisnia 1d313w13v0 210123Vfl1 Isiibivibni

.E no11332 if! baau

si ii ia1iI .irnoq atdi is hft3au is £ 31(1ST b ai3dmun 3(11 (10 23n31nmo3 Isrioiiibbs 3mo2

lls311nono33 asd asia mill bits quIal3nwo £1315101 n33w13d (10115131103 3(13 isdi 3ion 03 Xnsfloqml

Page 22: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

boi.q,opo cporcc p? io.ciu wcoz.a jjc bI.c2c1u flJC JL2 2G 0 LC2flII2 ILl pjG }OL ipc2c LC2flI2a

bbLo9cp i uccqcq o jmic pcucL rwqcawuqm o mpicp juu cp ccuaPC2 e uijcmxijA icci

CACL 1}1C2C U13 C1c CU211C2 LC C0LLCJq WOU WCUJ2CJAC2 20 ijmi WflJUAUC LC&C22!OU

p3 2CCjlOU MC 20MC pj 40LC1IJ OMIJCL2Jflb 12 C0LLCq MIW jUII CPWCCU2PC2 HOM-

CC41OU Q• JfrflJIAL!G L6k622!OIi 4G2W

JIJAC2jOL2 Wfl2 pC nuqCLMcipcq 113 WC2C 2pLC2

0L2 A3J11C JOM JCACIC JJIJJ CLILLCUj LPO miq JJIJJ LCWUJ OU 22C12' 2flC2PU iJJ9 C0I.b0LC

CO2C 0 IJJIIJfl2 OUG jJ112 12 U0 2ffLbU211J 2133CC J)OJJ 0LCIU 1UAC20L2 uq buc2c wq1MqnJ WAC2-

rnq1AIqnJ WAC2OL2 uq OMIJCI2JJIb pA OLCiU flThC2OL2 H0MCAGL 11312 UC91ThC C0LLCJiiOU 12 uo1

IJUIJ2 i COUJC2 2 Lb 2flLbU2C }J }JCLC 12 UiAC OLLGj9T10U CMCCIJ OMIJCI2JJIb pA bIJC2C

2wCc b9uc.c wq1MqnJ rnAC2OL2 20 2flouJA bLCCL 2Uifl z.JI.w2 mq jnp poojc-io-umjcC1

MCf}J JJC 20C(2 M}flC}J pUiC 113C JJiJJC2 ASf1iOIJ

pon bucec urnqcc pm buc2c flJAC21OL2 ouc Monjq cxbcc joLc!u WAC2OL2 o miqeL-

WC PP90LJ CXb1IJpOU 0 JLCIJCJJ uq b01CLP (j j). j OLCiu 1UAC20L2 9LC WOLC bca2nmapc

MciJU JUIJ2 MIW JOM p00JC-10-UI9IJCC WJ102 0ML W cuq 0 bilL ewbjc bcuoq 12 C0U2i2C1U "sup

ipO2C JUJJ2 JJJCA iuqccq qo 20 pnl uol C0U2121C3311A E1U9JA 1130 JJ !40LC1U 1UAC20L2 rmqCL-

pc CSJJJ1CL UJJ2 OUC M0fff 92O cxbcc j0LCJIJ WAC2J0L2 0 0lCLMCiJu JC1L b0Lq0Ji02 OML2

Luq 40CJC2 OIJUJJ2 MJflJ JLC LC2iqfIJ U2JC IUCC JUIJ2 I1J [OM poojc 0 Uffl1.JCC onq 9bbCL o

)021 2fIUJIIJ1JCq 2flC2 j0LCiU WA0210L2 CUCLJJA 2G0J( 21Crk jjicA nuqcLMczp 2Uifl aiocj

0Cf12 OIl qic JC21 ULUJ2 fl1 1 12 2WjfCL ccouq WC C0LLCJPOU2 fl211J w91JCCI UJ1WCL2 MC IAC

drnupic: I5!\° 338o\& tôf0\° uq o\O OpAIon2IA' WCLC 12 2PJJ POrnO p12 MJJCU me

Ofl0MUJ WCU2 OL 0LC1IJ OmJCL2JIIb ow ow c 2w9JIcai jui dnupjc wc ic uiJ

CACLA AcL uq IJJCU 9ACLC 0LC1U OMUCL2JJTb rn dnw11J02 CL022 W 29IIJbjC bcuoq mc juq W

wcuiuijij 1wbpcpou2 OL OLC1IJ omCL2p1b p me qlAIqc JLW2 rn OiIL awbjc rn ic drnuplc2

Page 23: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

c cwccq o niu pc uipj pic cowb1cc q OL pC !iJo!c bcuoq 14CACI41JCTC22 pc

LC22!OU2 qJ fl2C pOqJ cLo-2cc1ouJ mq 11wC-2Cuc2 qj jpc bLopjcw !tupqn2 bbLocp '

q uqccq c LcJTou pcMccu z,oiciu o1iucI2pIb uq i.w xc i uo 2bnuon2 jpc bLoMqc2 LC-

In OMIICL2JJIb OACL jUUC OIIC !Aonq CXbCCJ IOLC1I3 OMIICL2pIb IUCLC2G2 2 JULJ2 PCCOWC JLCL

ULW C}JLC1CU2PC2 JJJC LC&C22!0112 in pjc t qo 1J01 cxbjoti: qic nqouimiiou couwmcq rn cpuc

botiqc u cuiswc bbLorcp jo capumwi pc Lcjpou CMCU owuCL2pib uq

J1CL In 4J3C 2cc0uq PR0WC 2UJbfC uq i qoC uo

JIJ(CIA ° P' OP2CIPOU HOMCACL iIjJ MCLC WC C2C OUC monjq CXbCC qc CCCI 10

O' UJ1JU pc couccucq JJ 1J312 LCUCCi2 LCbOLPIJ prn in flJ1 JJC 2WflCL JUJJ2 UJTJU PC WOLC

qownmc pjc i qic iwboi.ucc o juu 2TC in jpc IUAC2WJCIU qCC1210u2 0T 10LCI8U lUAC20L2

P1C2 2OWCflJJC2 JJAC 2iIJIJC9IU C0CJCJCIU2 pn ipA qo uo bLoMqc COUMUCJU LC2NJ2 JJJC LC2flJI

C1JCC 12 211OU Ill jpc 2QC0U JJJ 0 1JC 2IJJb1C Pn1 WIICp JC22 20 JU }JC JL21 JJJ JJJC OWCL 1U-

uoq pii JJ12 CjCC MCj(CU2 2np2UJjA In iJJC 2ccouq 2npbcuocj pi couii pc LCflwu-22C12

WACOi. bLCCL JUU2 MI4JJ JOM ICAC1.C JJJCLC 12 21OU pO0Jc-10-uJULJcc cpc in ji.zi anpbc-

JJJC C0CjCiCI4 OU JCACLC 12 2iIJ1JCUJA UC9PAC In J3 AC2 011J 0 J IIJqICPIJ Ip 10LCIU

ACL 0LCU W1C210L2 iUAC2 WOLC 111 J9LC ULUJ2 C0IJ1OJJlU OL 2CACU 0JJCL JLW CpLCCU2IC2

oujA ouc cxbjuoi.A iupc jn 2xuqcmu cocc1ciu ccp Aci? umncj? uij isc cp

iJ' UL2 COJITUJU O pc &CC2 C C0CUC1CU1 C2UJC2 0L JQ LCLC22IOU2 JJJCLC12

bcuoq uq pcu OL 2np2mlJbJce

qrnu Lcbwqncc JJC COCUJCiCIJ C211UJC2 0L CCp ?CL MC LCjC WCUI I21 0L C M0JC aUJbJC

C0CC!CU2 20M JJOM J0LCiIJ IUIC2j0L2 qcbm.i pow qic WLJCCI b0L1T0j10 In IJJC1L p0JqnJ2 JJJCL

CL022-2CC10J3J Urn[11AUC LCLC22i0U 2JJOf1J PC I1J2iUqJCUJA TCLC1U jL0W CL0 HCUCC WC2C

o, pc qowcic conuii2 0LCJU oMncL2pth 12 2IJC In ccp UJJ miq JJC C0CCiCU2 0 OflI

w uu on ipc Cip cxbJ9imjoI.) AUpjC2 J401c qmt i I0LCiU WAC210L2 pojq qic wLJcc bowojio

MC bLocccqcq 2 OJJ0M2 ECP ACf MC C21IWiC CL022-2CC1T0UJ LCLC2210U 0 0LC1U OMIJCL2pIb

Page 24: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

(jspjc 4 coupuncq)

[JQaØJ [gao] [gaol

r'o8(I/) 0OI3 00114 00140

[rio] [o] [Ja3]

(31o) (-358) (-oo3)BOO1C 10 WSLTCCI -OO34 -OO3O -00101

[4)3] [)j] [aJ(og) (04?) (03!)

EXCC22 LCUIUJ 0OO3Q O004ô 00033

[rol(y) (JJ) (oJo)

1313?ô 131oô

[4aJ] [ro](oi) (014) (io)0003? OOO0 00044

[gas] [3O] E?o](1•3) (1•Q) (Ii?)

BOV OtTo? O183 Ø•j3Qg

[TaO] [OO] [to](048) (os) (ow)

CnLLCIULS!O 0OO1 00010 OO034

[0a13] [a] LoaQ]

(-so) (-303) (-503)-O03OX -O04?3 -00343

Eojo] Foasi Loag]

(j) (Joo) (-330)JIJCLCCb -0OQ3? -003i0 -00800

ASUSPIC2 JQ-JJ jQ-J3 J4-JJE1I bcuoq: npbcuoq: npbcuoq:

JCACJ LC2bCCIIACJA

i qic 0J0 JCACJ suq qioc o coccicu ,ipicp sic 2tmcSuqA UCSWC s jcsj s qic 0.10SIC JU bsicuqicc T4IIWPCL2 W PLSCJCCI2 SiC qiOC O COCCCU M1CJJ SIC 2Jm1csuq? boawAc s

IUJC-2CLIC2 SACLSC J0W Acsi-pA-Acsi LCLC22IOU2 OL qic j-jj bcuoq5 v'' -awvc

JCLC22OU C IJSC O OLC1IJ OIMJCI2JJIb ou cxbjszmoi.? IsuSpjc2 COCUJCICIU2 Ste qJc

ISPIC 4

Page 25: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

cdrna. LCEIUJJ2 iJqI U CXLWC jcov (icov jLCL qJU J 01. 2WflCL qmIJ -J) 9Uq U1J2Mull UGIAC pOOJC

q1ncqjVACL

10413 !840

E-A1flACLC

Uo15Ø4

[to]JQgJ

Wo]0Ô3

VACLC wbjc ic j j j

A'P1 IôQ-Ià1E11 bcuoq:

Iô-J23ripbcuoq:

I't-IôôInpbcuoq:

4 coupuncq)

Page 26: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

3'1,X

(i.J) (J3oI) (t)o'os.xo

(-t) (-s?o) (-x)8001( O WLJG -00509 -00153 -O,0'tol

(9.38) (ia) (9•Q)EXCC22LGWUJ 000 00051 O'O0XJ

(-ii) (J'o) (—t)-3to 3'31o -1F03o

(338) (-o) (ts)BC 0.O03 -0'000X 0OOQÔ

(930) (1.81) (t3)

BOY 01033 O'O? 0'11

(i) (088) (-!3)C''U LO 0'OO JO 0'OOSO -0'0013

(-385) (-Q?o) (-SQS)-005ô0 -0,0203 -O'0523

(-884) (-) (-st)IU1CLCCb -0J1 -0'13 -0'084

JUp12 J1ôJ 1ô.2-Jô83 1ô29-1ôô1

w'ii bcuoq: npbcuoq: npbcuoq:

j j j bcuoq LC ncq' -111Ic c w bcuWcc2

EflJJGL-BUC2C wcoq 12 ncq o cpwc jpc woqc 0iijA ,,Jp cowb!cfc q qnuu qicJpiiC-2CL1C2 CL022-2CCPOU LG&C22101J C2!WC2 OIOLG1U O!!IJCL2JJIb ou cxbi uoi.1 /upc jpc

J_.9pIc

Page 27: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

2CC10U mounxoif woq?. couiuu2 wpc

0uzItJCC uq un M11p }7II poojc 0 IJT.JCC .LP1C MUlCh 112C2 J)0J 1BllC-CUC2 uq CL022-

JIJ C0UL 0 0LCiIi WAC210L2 wquuqnj flMCiOL2 WAC2 WOLC IIJ 2W UU1J2 ulJ2 Mull booi. bcL-

oMIJCl2plb p? C0thOLJ0U2 uq ImTJCIJ m2pjfupOu2 W11 pc aLoIJA bO2WACIA LCq 0 JCACLC

pojp 0LCIU oMu7CLplb uq wqiiiqnj oIIuCL2plb si.c uciACJA LCj o jCACI.c JJl2 nubpc2 iP

qJC2C C0CCICIJ pVC jJJC ObbO2UC 2iu qmu rn WpjC cxccbj 0L qJC C0CCICUI OU jCACLC 2111CC

CI2CJA 111 jpjc LC 1}JC C0CCICU12 011 JCACLC Lc2iqn! 1L1UCC pooJc 0 UI9IJ(C uq JULJ 2IC fl

CL1IC 2 qic OMUCL2pIb p? 0LC!U pLcpoqCL2 jjJC COCUJCICIU2 LC c21wcq qJC WOZ bLe-

iiqnj o/iJJCl2plb pA buc2c 2}mLcpOqcL onjq CXJJIpIj qJC 2WC LCJl0URJJlb2 MUP JU1J CJJ1SC-

4JJC JJ0J1U2 0 JJLC2 pA J0IJ-ICLW bsUC2C COthOISIC uq p1JJC in MJ11CJJ C2C ruqu-

OiJJCL 1UAC20L2 H0MCACL u conq pe p MJJ MC opaccq 20 1L LCUCC WOLC C CiCUMIUIU2 0

iou jow qic umLyci boi.ojio pA pLcTu rnACa1oL pVC o pe oaacj pA obboaic qenuou2 pA ipc

OMIJCL2JJIb J0 pe LCJCq 40 U1J CJJL9C4CU2PC2 in pc obboei4c MA 0 ,0LCiIJ OMIJCI2JJIb IUCC qci-

OMUCL2JJIb pc qcbcuqcuj iupjc OIsc cucLJJA onjq cxbcc4 buC2c rnquiqnj

LP1C uq , 20M C41U1C2 01 qic LCLC22IO1J 0 49pC 4 nrn buC2c

JJ2 21 JC9IJ4 13C41AC CocJCicIJ

2npbcuoq pc uq ipc CXCC22 LcwuJ pvc a1u1ucmu bo2ijmc coçjciCiu2 uiq lllC LC2iqflJ ALUCC

in pc ccouq 2npbCIJOq lc 2imUc9u CXCCbI we OUC 0L qiC CJ7LLCIJ4 LiO p1 4JJC 2cc0uq

4jJC O4JJCL /1!P12 J3AC COCWCICIJI2 4JJ 91C 211J1UC91U 111 poqi 2npbcuoq2 Ill C0UL24 40 WPJC (iiewbjc LCLC22iou2 "q icov JJS2 21mcu4 bo2ipAc cocWcicn4 OL c qace LC&C2210U2 14011C o

11J4CC4 hJVC 2iUqJC1J4JA UC4IAC C0CCICU42 OL 4J1C MOf C wbjc LCLC2210U mq pC 4M0 2flp-

LCLc22iOu2 Ui ?410M 99U3 24L0U CjCC4 0 U1J 21C OIl OMUCl2Jnb 'cicic miq pooy o

Page 28: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

(jpjc couiiunq)

[oi] [os] [os]

(-1580) (-iso)r0(1/V) -00418 -0013 -00384

EJ11] [Qo] [2j](31) (iso)

BOO 0'0?4 00404

Es] E4J1

(osQ) (135) (041)EXCCLCI1TUJ 00105 00185 00033

[oJ41 [o1 Eo](•) (.•)

AUIJCC -38058Q -t3O? -304O

[I1 [3)J] [30]

(ooJ) (ooi) (ooJ)

BC 0.O00 000Q0 000.X1

[o1 [o} [osJ

(-rio) (-1t) (-083)BOy -OJ.X3 -04? -01010

[] [3aØ] [](j•g) (1?3) (104)

Cfl1.LULO 00111 00W3 0.00o

[o1Q1 [os1 [os]

(-38) (-3Qs) (-303)r'c/cLc -01330 -OJ?31 -0J15

[io] [so1 [soJ('tQ) (1488) (wo't)

IU1CLCth1 OQSQ 0ô?8 O.XQ03

A14P1C2 10Q-JO0J 1O-1083 1081-1001E111 bcuoq: npbcuoq: npbcuoq:

WC 0 JØ jCACJ LCbCC1ACfA

boipAc 9 c 0J0 jcicj uq oac ococjccu ip1cp ic imcu11A ucwc jci29IjiC LC w bnuipc2c I4fIWPCL2 IU PLCJC Lc jO2C O COCJCiGIU2 MJJICJJ 2rrnC9TJjJ1

IIJC 1flJJC-CUC2 9ACWC pLOW ACL-pA-AcsL LCLCIOU2 OL ipc jo-ji bcuoq yAc13c -BCLCIOU C2UUJG O wqlAIqn9J OMucL2plb ou cxb1 uoi.? upjc Icou cocjc!cIu2 LC

.LP1C Q

Page 29: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

cdrnA LC qcjcqEuJJ 911 CXiCI1JC iov (icov 1LGL W9U J 01. WJJCL ipu -j) uq uLJ2 NUP 1JC1ThC pOOJ(

qn2q jçALC Jo.O8 OgO3 IV3ô

h-A91ffC

ACL9CEwo]3Q

Eo]31•IO

[g]33ÔÔ

yicisc ubj JJ Joox J5ô

MUPLC JQ-JJEI1 bcuoq: J-J3npbcuoq:

Jg4-JJnpbcuoq:

(ipIc Q couwncq)

Page 30: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

ffOOl VE

(-sx) (-woo) (-is)-0O?13 -0.055 -003t3

(jj)800 0UJsLJCG 0O3tX Ø•ØJØ 004Q

(•) (•)EXCC22 LGWW -0O0O -0008 -0.00o5

(•)ffc2iqrr9j ASU9UCC -53853ô ...j J,f3 -53J't0

(o) (i) (jig)

8GW OOOà 000Q3 0005'1

(•)BOy -0O83 -0J3t -011ó8

(-tt) (sn) (-5.35)cnacu Lsio -oooo oooact -00053

(-Qo)FGAGL5C -ooQ -0OSJQ

(•) (yg) (soQ)IUCLCCb 0Ô141 0ô135 0Q?48

AsiJSPJG2 Jô.Q-JôJ IQ-Jó83 To8t-JôInjj bcuoq: npbcuoq: npbcuoq:

we jx- j j bcuoq sic ncq -2wu2pc2 sic w bsLcIupc2c2

jpc Enh1GL-Buc2c wcqioq 12 fl2G jo cpwsc c woqcj 0iijA j iiup cowb1cc qsW qnuu

jlwC 2GUC2 CL022 2GC1OU LCLG221OU G2Uw51c2 O rnqmiqns oMucL2Jnb ou cxbJsusioLA A5U5fC2

L5P1C ,

Page 31: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

2WjjC Gxbo1.\2Jc2 dirnuijc AC AC12C oflucLaJnb 0 J O3o\° uq iii pc jic cxbo1.\IJc2

LqC 2CCUJ2 0 IJCC 0LC1U OMIJCI2pIb u btpctqsi oL 1pc 2wJJC2 2LC dnnJVIC 1JJC JL1JJ2 UI IJJC

dnwijc o pc cxbo1.\29Jc2 WjiO uq SROo\° OL C JLC21 III C0U112 0L 2WJj JULJ2 0LC1IJ

qc cxbo\Jc2 LU0 12 1IWU1OLWUAC OLC1U OMuCL2plb 12 OIl ACLC OL iJJC !

AC13C 180o\0 OL JJC 2wjc drnuflic uq QQ\o 1OL c ic dnuijc vwou wc

?uJo\° OL iJJC J9LC2 jJJC nubc 0 21C 12 UJf1C J12GL JJOMGACI? 2111CC OLC!U OMIJCL2JJII) 12 OU

WC CXbOLI2\29JC2 L1O wouoorncjj? OW 1OW 3Q\° 10L IC I0M CXbOLI2\2S1C2 dcrnipjc o

o!ucL2JJ1b OL 21C qCciJc2 uq OLCiU psqc qccqc uOuhI 21C OLC1U o!ucL2pTb 1UCLC2C2

jo 2cb1sc qrc ccc o wccxbo i.io uq qJ ccq o MC bLc2cuj iii wpjc g oLC11J

c1u oiucijnb qocnwcucq clJ1CL

pipc cxbo L1O2 20 JJ pc CO1.LC1iOU2 uJ1JU 1n2 LCUCCI IJJC COLLCJflOU pCjMGCU 21C uq 0L-

0L2 rnAC21 WOLC 111 JUIJ2 4Jmi JmJC JJ1JJCL CXbOLj L110 HOMC/CL JLCL UJJ2 LC 1I1CC1A o jmic

OL j Ac,L7 uq w oo 1cIcJoL ouc Ac j bbc2 L0W iJJC2C cOLLCJO1J2 JJSi 0LC1U IIIAC2-

ICLC C0UCJ1OU O 0 18 11112 coacjpoii 12 bo2Ilmc cici? Ac uq 2ruh1JCSIu IJJC 001 JCACJ

bcL Ar C0wbnpu qJc cou.jiou pciicu oLC1U o/AJJCI2JJIb uq c cxboi wiio

ACLC W12 qw 12 A1jpC OL UUIJ2 bCI ?C9l JJJC fACLC po o cxboi. o 2JC2 i

2flJCL2 .OW }JC JJ 1.1 qoca U0 AC 1UI(OU1J1O1J OL nUCOUaOJIqCq 0LCIU 2flp2iql9LICa O1

i'c co cirnpjc na o cowbic C LO o cxbo142 o ajca OL qic bciu cowbuA jpia q

JUJJ2 (jwoai j urnuncwuu uu2y MC VC cXb014 UJ0flIU2 umqc sqpjc pA 2cCfIiJ-

pOM MCJJ-JQJOMIJ U1J 12 0 0LC1U rnAC2OL2 12 WC cXGIJ O MJJICJJ LW CXbOL12 LOL anpac 0

IIIJqa poq WOLC 2JLC2 111 IJLW2 qJ JAC JOi 0 IICM2 21OUC2 22OCi9cq Mup W"J V bioxA 10L

11C2 JJT WAC210L2 pojq 2JJLC2 UI JLIIJ2 M1C IpCA JWOM' IICCIJ21C11J (J) 2J10M2 wnws'j

D° 0LCIU WAC2jOL2 WAC2 WOLC UI YJUU2 JJCA W9A JJAC pc1.q Oj W0LC jqcuou Uos) '-

GCI!OU EOL6IU LUG ijq (OLG U OlAUGLpib

Page 32: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

(I8) (3'o) (410) (fl) (283)

VII 180 30 3 4J

(3s) (323) (43o) (432) (828) (Q8)383 4J 91X 4.3 80 XI

(I4) (3JI) (382) (�x) (208) (4'3)

142 331 34X 244 X18 442

(•) () (j) (38!)3 332 3•44 3• .0o 3 410

(142) (303) (33) (?o) (2o4) (3oo)

3 141 382 3Ô 4(ooQ) (3) (332) (ot) (s) (384)

W11C2b 103 523 3•3 48, 812

C2 Lj1OEXb0142\ W9IJC2h 3 3 4 VII

isc dcrn,p1c2

(uJcqiu) ojsc AcjA WC9U2 (wcqIu2)

thiwbIIC2 pcq OU hJJC CXboLh2bO29JC2 Lh1O ..LJJC CCj! in jpc pJC bLoMqc 1JC bIUJC-2CUC2 wC9U

qc cxboI.-jo-2Jc2 Lj!O LC qiiqcq WhO 2IC drnubJc2 cp dniuiijc 12 hGU qmqcq who ACcxbOi42-bo-21c2 Lh1O 1''!'JhC IÔ? I ô I bCLlOq CJJ ACS'I hJJC JUIJ2 OL MJIICp q 12 IIP1C

JqCU nq wcqrnii OLCIiJ OMJJCL2JJIb (\o) p? bol.qopo2 oi.wcq on IIWI4CCh A1flCo cdniO uq hCU

.LSP!C 8

Page 33: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

ipc buec o c 2ccnu /jc rnAce1cq ipc coucj1ou pc1wccn jcu LCflW2 ou c bouopo pcjq

cnu.cuc? ipc obmsj cnu.cuc? pcqc OL 1bmic2c 2GCflU1C2 12 jO 2J3014 1J 9WOfflU 01 ACIJ °jJ3c JCLC0LC pAC c TIgCLbLCWPOIJ 0 CXCC22 LCIITUJB 1OL £OLC1U WAC20L2 ILLC2bCCIThC O IJJCIL

qc CXCC22 LCflU32 1OL 1OLC1U IUAC0L2 C opwmcq pA IJCUJ IJJC qnJpLcuCc 01 4M0 ACU LCWUJ2

cowbnc c woupjA LCWUJ ou boiojio MIqJ qIC2C Mc1pr pL ipc ucxi LMCJAC W0111J32 jijoic qmi

cuq o nuc o ACL o coujLffc boiopo iim uminc pojqm o 0LCiIJ WAC210L2 9IJq 1}ICU

nac oMUCL2pIb wouimpou qc cnq IIJ2CJ Acn j-j jc n2c umqcc ijnc nmouzmuou o c

MciJJ1cq LCUIUJ 10 C0IJU7C 1pc LCWUJ O OLC1IJ WAC0L2 MC bLocccq2 10! jOM2 EOL

Mc1p CO2 jpC bioiiqc CXCC22 LCJ1UJ2 O OLCJ1J 1UAC21OL2 OACL C hVCVb wOuiijA Ajnc-

cxbcccq LCWUJ jmu we boLqOpo pcjq pA qouicapc flJAC20L2 pc1OLC iS1C1U 11340 CC0flIU W qCsq-

co nisbjA 4C boi.pojio o qowcic 2CC11LWC2 pcq pA pLc1u nmeioL2 JJonJq mAC pIJIcL

Cc110u 3 2JJ0M JJ1 PLUCL2 40 11UCUJP0IflJ rncawiciu 19JCC iJJC 1°" 0 qcqMci!u

cpou g jp !uAG2twGuj bGqouu8ucG 01 UAG2j0L2

uciiic coccic1

I ôô 1 LOL IJC wqlAIqrr9j 0!MJCL2p1b LC&C22I0U2 1JC CXb0142-40-2JC2 L9410 JMA2 Jm2 2IU1JC1U

ooo "up -puc 01. 0L c ccouq pj o we wbje uuicjA c beuoq ow

LCLC22101J2 1.OL J3C MJJOJC 21JJbJC 9Uq IVC L2 jm o, c 29wb1e ii boaipte eocujcicu °1

q cicz.A Acu jpc cxbo-o-jc wpo p u W2iUi cu coCwcieuj iii WC OLCiU oJAucI2plb

W LCLC2I0IJ2 0W PIC2 uq 013 4}JC 2np2uJbJe 0 5Q3 COWbU1C2 101 M31CJJ MC JAC CXb014

exboU2\aJc LpO dnnuzjc bbci 20WCM UJOLC LCJCq 40 10LCIU 0M1JCLJJ1b fi1C LC11UJ1Cq

uo cxbouw j 4pJC g MCLC cou2p.ncCq jp iA e drI911W4mc LC211J12 MOlTJq pe a1iiJ1j1? ptii C

IJLUJ2 1.01 MJIICJJ MC JAC 110 CXb0L q yu jcwic bbLo9cp i o flflUJC }J9[ qsc2c LW2 JJAC

1.0L 10LCJ13 OMlJCL2JJJb '1 JL11J i 2Wf Pf11 U0 '1 1 1 J1C 111 C0U211J1CPIJ WJIJC MC IU0LC

dniuijc ACLC oMucLpib i go JJJCLC 2 WCLC1OLC 2OUJC eMqeucC iJIi 10LCIU CP/UiC2 UJCL

Page 34: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

14

OL J5 WOIp2 4113 !!4W i"P oAc

29UJC nmU COUAGIJPOU MC qiq CSLJICL3 imwcjA MC 2C C cuq o U2C91 ?.C9L -j 0MUCL2P!b q

iuiou JU CXbCCICq LCUIUJ2 9C WOUJI? MC L&C22 LCWLIJ2 OIl 1OLC1U OMIJCL2JJ!b jc fl2C W

E9U39 911q LLCUCJJ (j o) o juq on MIJCWCL OLCiIJ OMUCL2JMb 12 LC91Gq 10 C CLO22-2CCPOIJ9

UIUJ2 OIl q0wc211c 2CCflLWC2 9uq iJJC JJOJqW2 O OLC1U IJAC21OL2 © bwcccq rn w M9A

qcwuq 9IC cxbccicq LCjIIUJ2 pj qii 2ccpoI? wC LCJ9110U pcwccn cxbccicq LC-

2OWC qowcpc 2CCflL1!C2 LCJ9PAC iO OIJJCL qowcapc 2CCfIUPC2 1JC MOflJq Cxbcci I1J1 iP' qCLCUi9J

Jpc CAIqcucc bLc2culq lu b9bcL 2JJOM2 jJJ9 OLC1g1J TIJAC2IOL2 IUCLC9ZC qic qcuiuq Ol

GC4!OU ö D°' 1OLGIgIJ WAG2jUJGU4 RJGC4 GxbcqGq LGflLU2 OU qowciic 2CCflL!4!C&

OLC!IJ COf1ULA

JJOUJC p192 12 qc CX12CUCC o bLoboI.po1m qC9qMCiju coai qii 9bb11c2 ro WCIL rnACapucu iii ipc

LC91CL cxbcccq LCWUJ q19U 1J1C W9LJCCI bOLflOJiO 92 OUC MOnJq cxbcc q c cxb19u1ou OL qJc

OLUJ AGm.2 OJU O J 4O 92C C913 pC w9qC JJ91 OLC1U IUAC2OL2 CJJOO2C 9 bOLqOJIO iJI9i 92

9ICL9C LCWUJ2 pf11 qJC wCqI9U CXCC22 LCUILU 12 2PJJ IJC9Ac 9flq OLC1IJ rnAC210L2 211 flUqCLbCL-

MCI}flCq bVCVb boiojio pA j 5g0\o jpon Aci? qionp WCLC i uo nuqCLbc4ouIJ9ucc iu

CLUC19J LOJC III J12 fIUqCLbC4pun9UcC EOL qm AC91 OLCiU IUAC2jOL2 nuqCLbcLIouu WC A91ff C-

ccouq 2npa9uJbJc bcuoq' M}JIC}J 12 qc bcuoq ow i ô84 o j j jpc j o j Ac9L bJsA2 9

LCPILU LCI9IThC 10 1PC A9Jnc-mci}ucq 12 UC9UAC OACL qJC M}JOJC 29WbJC bcuoq uq iii qic

C1u WAC2OL2 rmqCLbC4puJJ qic A9JflC-MC1JJ1Cq bVCVb b014LOJIO IWC2 JJ3CIL 9ACL9C CXCC22

JjJC bwccqrn.c MC fl2C 9JJ0M2 fl2 10 0JU9111 LCWLU2 OL J Q Ac9L2 ØJU O iJJC2C J Q AG9L2 OL-

1UA191 9uq 219P2IIC9JJA 11J211I1U9U' 20 9 JJGC L9IJO OOUC 12 9bbLObU9jC

pA OLCiIJ WAC2IOL2 9uq qJC ACU\DOII9L CXC}I9UC L94C 9uq onuq qiC COLLCJ9IJOU fO pG CCOIJOWIC9flA

Page 35: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

(-0 oo)XQ0X-ôJI3 -0.01ô0

(0 J3'to)840X-ôIJ 00?0

(-0 ito)00I

-0.308k

ô00X-ÔJOQ

gox-oooQ

880X - 8ô0oti- 8OQ

- 8QOQ

-F3g31

0-8t0Q80-g30Qgjo-g5oQgoo-gJoQ 0401,X

Xô0X-800Q -0•JQ4,X80,X - ,ô0Q 0,X05

-033- 0Q

bCL10l EXCC22 LCWW

b9Lciupc2c2

11C2 LG wcpcq MIW LCUIUJ2 OL pC WOUW2 ow lnjA o Ac mjcoAc +j jqcqiu Lc

OMUCL2JJIb 12 WC2flLC UI J2C Aci -j uq ULJ(C Ajnc 12 WC2I1LC UI UJC o Acsi i: JJJC2C AJ-

jc AflC pcq pA OLC1II WAG210L2) uq jrtc-icipjcq bVCVb WOIUJJJA UJLJCG LC1I1U32 LOLC1U

1JC MC1}J 12 ACU W91J( AJI1C O ccp COWb9IJA pcjq pA OL©iu WAC2OL2 qmiqcq pAoj jcu w-EXC22 LCUUJ 12 qJC ILCIJCC pcwccu 1i-1Pi WOUIIIIA LCUIUJ2 O OLC1U UThCOL2 (MJJcL

JjUJC-2CUC2 ACL CXCC22 LCWLU2 cuicq pA OLC1IJ WAC210L2 qrwu c bcuoq j j j bcuoq

Page 36: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

pA 1JJA212 suq LCI1I0L2 WSA JCL0LC po qmI LOLC1U UJJC21OL2 ic jc qq1iwc Lct-

2UJJJCL 1JUl12 jJfl2 12 CCW12C J12CL 1JUl12 q12CJ02C UJOLC iuipumpou mq ic ojj0MCq UJOLC CPACJA

U2JCICL 1JUl12 J 1C fl i 12 OUCU t&1cq iJJ 1U0UJIUO1mJ 92AUJWCUC2 LC WOIC 1U1b0LIUi 40L

20 JiltJC OrTl2iqC 0IWC1L JJOWC COflIJILA vuq MJJA JAJJCIJ qJCA WJC2 pL0sq ipc nuqcuAciju 2UItCL

EflIIILC LC2CCJJ JJS1 JC2 0 cxbjiu c powc p1 pu o cxbjui po MpA 0LCi&1 1UAC20L2 WAC2I

cxbjm qc powc pi pA IsupJc2 j iic in cocrnp.A cmmo cxbjin 05Th CMqCuCC

O 1JLW2 mup fCACWC JjJ12 UlCU2 ''°q O 1IUCUU0IJ9J boi.qpjio 9JJoc9iiou rp 2GCJC o

jpc wm uqm op12 bbci 12 qm OLCiU JUAC2IOL2 OACLMCiJJi 2JJLC2 O 12C 1JUl12 9uq

GClIOU 10. yjoqpu 4JJG JJOWG P!2

2IXC C1JCC1 fC LC22 J12 122flC uq LCjcq i22flC2 in 1}JC UCX 2CCPOIJ

10 p9/s.C LC1CL qcuinq 0L JLC IJLW 210C1C2 WA pc JJCjb1Jlf CJSTC in (flJCL2W1Jin MpA WCLC 12

ciii cxbcccq LCWUI2 ij UJCC2 2CIJ2C 0 9110M 0L S 2iC CaCC IJJC 1131 0LCi1J rnAC20I2 2GCUJ

MCSJC suq qoc2 uo 21suq nb MCU MG SJ0M OL s 21C yponp GLOW qic bcL2bccw.c o oi.c-

qcucc 2J30M2 qJCLC SLC 2OWC I1SCC2 0 0LCIU 0!AIJCI2JJIb in LCUILIJ2 H0MCACL 4JJ12 CCC 2CW2

12 U0 2iznijcmi in JJC 2ccouq 2rIpbcLIOq uq 12 5p201n1c AS1C J2 pA SJUIOaI iMO-qJuq2 Øni cti-

iic SJJOM poqi 0L 511 OMuCL2plb CCci siiq 21C CCC C SACL5C C0CCJCIJj 011 0LCIU OMJJCL2JIIb

JJJCLC 12 110 2JC GCC in JJC 1JL2 2npbcuoq p1u 1}ICLC 12 5 21C C1J,CC1 III G 2CCOUq aflpbcUoCJ JJJCU

rn21In1JcsuJjA bo2fiAc I,0I. JJC 1JL2. 2flpbCuOq sitq 2iW1JC51J1]A l1CSiAC 0L iJJC 2ccouq 2r1pbCL0q

mc qlAIqc pc 2suJbJc in wo 2npbcuoq2 MC uq jJJS 4J1G SACLSC 2JObC 10L 0LC111 0NI1CL2JJth 12

A5Jflc JJJGLC 12 s 21C CjCC1 qaonpon 0flL asujb1c suq i 0W1US1G2 ipc 0LC1IJ 0!iuCL2pIb C11CC1

uijcu /c 5J20 iic wc SACLSC ejobc opsmcq L0W Lc&c221ou2 o LCWUJ2 011 WC jo 0 UJSLJCG

IJJCIL IIUJC-2CUC2 21SUqLq qcMsow JJJC SACLC 2jObC 0L IJJC MJJOJC 2SUIbJC 12 UCS1TAC pffi U0 21w-

Jc bLoi1qc 1SJC G SAGW8C 2[obc2 oupc woui1zjA Lc&c221ou2 MIp j-pic opwwcq L0W

Page 37: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

(-o) (-las)(a) -ooiii -00030

(3.14)(8) -00033

(-1 •.x)() -ooss

(wbjc 2iC = oo)840Q-ô! 13npbcuoq:

(i'o) (-J)() 00084 0003O

(-J t)() -o.ooIa

(003)() 00003

(wbjc 21C = aQ)

rrpbcuoq:

(-ois) (-34a)() -000J0 -0'003

(s.g)(s) -ooos

(-148)(1) -O•0J33

(wb1c 2iS = J g)o-ai JsE11 bcuoq:

oqcj EOL1U OHJiCL2pJb (umijec ijnc)

w

flC2 LC WCJJG /1JJJ LCWLU2 OL 1JJ WO1UJi LOW nA ACI 1 10 1'" O ACL + j -O!IJCL2ji1b 12 WC21TLC TU AL 1-j 9uq WIJCCr AJflC 12 U12ITLG iii mic oM jjj jjbcuoq' uq -ppc2 tc pc ACLC coqcIciu qlATq©q p? i 1m1c-2cuc2 aisuqiq CLLOL EoLcin

210U COCC1C1U2 9LC IJJG 11WG-2GUC2 VCLC LOW woUqJ-pA-W0IJqJ LC&C2210U2 OL G Q0-J J3

JC8LC221OU G2UWG2 OI WOUIJJ!A LCIThIJ2 OU OLC1U OMIICL2IIIb uq wstjcc Jjnc o cdrniA

.LP1C JØ

Page 38: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

.1g

I0L qowc21c WAG2I0L2 WCLC 12 IJ CXbCCIGq JJOUJC pi uq OLC11J WACZIOL2 LC cxbcccq 10 OACL-

bL0bO2WOU 4 (iC-p2Cq 1UOUI1P0UJ 2)U3WC11A) H. H> I 0L 0LC1IJ WAC210L2 IJq H =

Jill2 W0C} cq2 o qJc Lc2n1:

= [HAH]_1 ti ()

(iu) ia (i+J)\i jjiv ijn s2rzwbpoif c obwmj boi.qpjio 0L OLCiIJ wAC210L2 pccowc2:

"i' L(v1A) o MLG 12 WC Ill4CG AJffC O UUIJ2 COIIJUJOU 20C JJJG flbbcL-pOflhJq oIl

2 pJJ- MCL H 12 0U WUX MJJCLC JJG q1olmJ CCWCIU2 LG 1A1J pA iucpou (wiY

1p wc uucc coiuucc umwx opc bLcqJcpAc qJ2Wpfl0u OL 0LCiIJ rnAcaloL2 CS1I pc MLIgCIJ

bjc ,tA o mibjcwcu 1a iqc lu qic woqcj nJouu1ou Awwc1uc2 0 2CCqOU 3 12 O 22IIUJC

WAC20L2 M1JJ PC 0/CLMCi}JCq III 1LC UJJ2 mq 0LCiIJ rnAC20L2 MljJ CXJ31P11 JJOWC p12 21W-

jtc lJLw2 Aip ncp u 22nwbiou pon iuoI.wjiou IwwciiA jpc bowojio pcjq pA OLC113

WAC210L2 p0f11 9jJ 2CCflUVC2 prt JJ 11312 flJ0UlJj10U 2AUJWC11A 12 ILCL 0L 2WJJ UU2 JIiJ

rnAC210L2 JJAC 2GGW2 LC20UP1C 1o 22flWC JJ 0LCiIJ flMC210L2 LC JC22 iuouiicqJJIJ qowcanc

poq pc ucucA boi.qpjio r jpc luouiJpou jpcA pc qicL2 jLOw qJc wiouim1iou ip9 qowc2pc

W2Cq 0LCi1J WAC20L2 JJAC qqgiouj 1IJ0UIJT0U JJT qici CL022 2CCflLlC2 qJCA 130 J01JCL

C11J WAC20L2 }JAC oujA J3120L1Cj q 10 0LW 111C!L bicqiqiAc qaupflii0u 0ICL 22G LCIIIUJ2 11

qic woqcj MiqJ lu0Lwi0u JJJC ACL2TOU ojpc woqcj Ec cou2iqcLcq 22iiuJcq qJ OL-

11312 bbcu y 21]311 JJITOLThLq CXCIl21OU 0I OIJC 0 qic WOqCj2 2CCW2 bLoun2ru 0MCACU OuVqCL

ouc oiqic qcc aiwbjc uioqcj 12Cfl22C iii cciou cu cxbjm qic c,qcucc bLc2cucq iii

CoiwiiA O 0LCiIJ UJ/C20L2

J912C 1JUl32 LC WOLC JIjCJA 10 pe WflJ111JS1i0Uj 1JUl12 uq JCUCC 10 T2CjO2C 1UOUJi110U 113 1}JC 0WC

pnA 2JJLC2 0 2UJJJ IJLUJ2 U31JA pe WOLC 1IJCC1A 10 iLC MUll nqouiicq Iu2Iqc IIJAC2I0I2

ITAC 10 OWC2UC 13JAC2IOL2 oL JLC jr.wa i:pu 0L 213rnJJ IJLW2 P3 bi.pcrijt pLciu 113AC210L2 mpo

Page 39: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

(!?) pCcIT2C OLC!U WiCOL2 CJJS1JC WCLbLcqTcpIc qiaupnuou COZJPUnOn2J)

WWOJCL OW OLCIU nJAC2IOL2 JJSU OW qowcpc IUJ21OL2 CWbtJ2i p? jci uq JCWCL

1ronou2 qccupcq iii pi bbcL pucLcapIJJ? encp woqcj onjq pG couzizlcuj qic LCCL

qccupCq in cciou mJq nqpunpou 2AWWCLLIC2 CoIqq pc V1CCC22pJ 1IJ CXbJflJiIJ CXTaWJ ci

n2?JmJJCuC2 jOuC coqq cxbjiu WC umuiwqc O jjic pOWC prn p'u woqcj iiuip WC iujc co

jic juim uq 2flC jm qic) nuqcLMCzJu qJc qowcic boi.qpjio i ortjq pG 2flLbu2flJ U wouimpou

bLobo2ipou qCJIACL boi.jopo MCIJU flCJJ JJT !OLCIIJ rnAC210L2 OACLMCIJU JLC qowC2-

pwcjcc i bovim Mplcp cowb1Cc2 pc bwo 2HJCC ijj!) te UcpAC

JJJC LGdfliLCWCIJ 013 qic COAU13CC O CCCrIUIA I 113 JC bLObO2!IOU IIJ2IILCC iPi qiC CUU in CIILjA

1=j

_{ HAH" + H!!/H!IM h.(itit) > 0 ()

IC IACU pA:

UCPACJA LCfG OL OLCIU WACCIOLC CIUCC IpC qCL1APAG O qic boi.opo bLobol.pou OL zecj

1ccbiu cxbcccq LCWUJC nucmucq u oJJoMe ip L11J eic uq boi.qppo bi.obooue WIIC pc

(st)

jome pow cdrniiou ()qii:

ACCIOL M1J qJC 1i1G qug ACCIOL EOL IACIJ Ii uq A "!' H =J OL qowcelic WACC1OLC I1 O1-

bLOO JJC1U GxbCCioij o ( MC CU LCbICC qJC OLCi1J 11JACC1OLC CCUWC OI C quij

qic bLcqIcpAc AU91JCC Oqi CCCRLIIA 1 iiwc ie bowopo MCipr

LCWUJ MUIJ qiC OLCIU WAcC1OLC b0WOjiO OI qowcapc 2CCflU1C2 12 LCCL qmu umme

MCip i2c qowcavc UDC in qJCIL box.ojio bLoMqcq qm OL Ccp 1 qic bLcqlcliAc coiirnucc oj

Page 40: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

40

b19rn pop c jci.cj uq ipc CLo-2ccpou9J ,u1ou rn oiciu oMucI2plb qocnwciucq JJCLC

aponjq TIJ1C21iSc COUqIpOU2 fUJqCL MJJJCJJ 9 woqcj p92cq OU JIJTOLW911OU91 92AUJUJCILIC2 conjq cx-

2UJ91! qouJc2ic JUIJ2 12 COU2!21CIfl ML1JJ C CLO22-2CCp0119J A9U9POU flJ ONJJCL2p1b LffI4PCL LC2C9LC

CThUjIC2 MC 2J10/L UJOqCJ rn iijiicp pLciu rnAc210L2 JcuoM WOLC 9Ofl jmc qowcaiic qmu

wqcc1 boi.qojro o 9 COIflJILA OL 9 boi4pjio oAcLMciJicq OM9L2 JJ18J cXbCCIcq CXCC22 LCWUJ 2C-

9LC UJC01J2121C1J1 !UJJ OflL cMqcucc 2IUCC WC2C bLcqlci CTWCL W1 OLC1U rnAcajOLa pojq 1J1C

!UJJ2 E2I11J UJOC2 J91 9LC COIJ2i2CIJ 'J1JJ C CXI21CUCc O 9 JJOWC p192 bLcacucq rn eccpou

2JJOM IJ1LflJCL JJ91 O!AUCL2plb pA OLC1ZJ 111AC210L2 12 COU2121cuqA 9uq 21iouJA pT92cq 99IU21 2113911

j O F MC COUIJUJJ qJC CX1&CUCC O 9 2ffp2191J119J )30WC p192 fl2flJ 9 1JCLC1U q9W 2OflLCC uq

jJfl2 b9bci. bLoAiqc2 cAlqcuCc 011 C ql2wpnpOu O 0LC1IJ 2J19LC O!3JCL21J1b lu 9b9u ow

2GC4!OU Jj. C0UC11121011

Page 41: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

41

QCUUOUC jg Qbuw9 bOLqpiO Cpoic nuqci. rnCOWbjGlC nnouzsiou lonumJ o,nmucC 4J'

y'UIGLJCUU ECOUOUJIC JçCAJCM' b' iq bLO UJ2

ELCUCI? KW iiq 1YI bOCLP JJ JIMCjOL q ACL2ZCjIOU 9lJq UUCUJPOUI GdfliA Um1JCC2

OffUJ9J OWC IbIUCaC uq PUCUmPOUSJ ECOUOUJIC2 4

ELCIJCI? KK Iiq HA! bOCLP JØ bIJCC uq fl cLoa-poLqCL COWWOU 210C1C IUACI1JJCIJ12

tE'U' E uq icic LLCIJCI? J5 JJJC CL022-2CC11011 ocxbcccq OCJC LCWUJ2 OflLUJ O}IIJUUCC

bowojio poiq nubnpppcq moLJau bbcu

LIYCIJCU? EO JÔÔ bLCPLCIJCC2 OL 2OCJC CTh1SC1CUPC2 2 LCACJq pA obCn-cuq wnpij jmq

OCLAJC ccouowA onumj o nmucc j

DOIV9J? fl 3q D' CJqWI? Jg EdflhJipUffUJ UJ1CLC 121C2 mzq uinjpbcuoq OU2 iu bswjiA

OIhiUUCC 3g3-33

D'Ub1c y yc bucrn w bLoqncpou CCOUO11JA iup iucowbjcic uiounioz? onuj

OI,jIIJIJCiJ nqIC2

COObCL rv q E 1çbJ9'u jjjrn cxbJm2 ipc JJOUJC pi w boi.opo wAc2pncu

Jwbnpj!2pcq MOLJCJU bbcL flIJIACL2!iA Oj,9pOUiI j f'O2 VUC1C2

BLCUIJ1J uq HH C° Jf WTOUIJPOUJ wOqcj OUUCUJ1TOU9J bot.qpjio 1UACaPIJCIJ1

qIACL2IC91JoU nubnpjijcq MOLJUU bbcL flUIACI2IiA O jii2iui

BCL flj CLUJfUZ? uq }CIU 4OIuwqcq OOq UOIuLqcq COL uq UUCLUIOUJ UOU-

znuy nubnpppcq MOLJCUJ bbcL flU1ICI2T1A O/ILnhTT

BXCL y uq fiT CUUUI? J 3 JJJC IUCWOUJ qACLTC91IOU bnJC 12 MOL2C qmu Aon

B!PJ!0LJbPA

Page 42: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

t3

flbb9 Y i ôô3 v CUCL9J CdRI1IpUnUJ UJOqC o nucLu9u0U91 bOLq,Oj!O cpoicc 1onwJ o nmucc

uq jmucc oi.ipcowwR

JP r' uq ftCUJCL JÔ? HOWG p192 uq piji WUJOACL 1011U191 OjjU1CUJ9POU9 ouc)

MOLFU b9bcL

wjs icvu pucuJ1ou9J boi.opo cjiotcc 9Uq 922C bucm: vu JU1C&9PAC 211LAC 4BEK

couJ11J

iUCPOU2 9uq 2JJ9LCJJOJqGL MC9qJ: JJJcOLA 9uq cA1qducc KCAICM O EnmUCi9I inq1c2 OL1JJ-

jç uq j CLJJCU joiciu cdniA rnAcwJcu LCUCOU cbtj J1p LC-

fl! WJ.' JÔ81P IJJC CUCC12 Oj,p9LUCL O UCLXJ911OU9 1UAC2WJC1JI OffUJ91 OEU3SUCC 3Q

toQ.

wj icvi 1ôJ v woqc ouiou 922Cr bucu onuij oIj!u9uc1J EcouowIc2

.ow pc r b9u UJIUiCO A9IC flrnACLiik

P!!!' Wi Kou- E 9U A jnn? bccr1j8pAc pcp9AJoL 'U ipo alocjc umqcc2:

UOUJIC2

jçrrqq v i o v uot on dn9JiiAc Lc2nji 1UAcwcui bLobo1.pou onumj o iuucx ECO-

OW9UC19J ECOUOLU!C ?

icoji w uq v �o cow1ncu on dn9pWiAc icnj oi rnAcawJcu bLobowou onuj

fOM 1e J3 ubnprpcq q121491iOU flWAGI2IIA o jqou r'° VU12

uucrj uq On91UJ9PAC yu9JAi oupcounu

9b9uc2c OOLC qoJ9L-qcuoumwlcq COUiCL1JC 9uq M9U.91U pouq 1f1C OflUJ9J Oi-

K9U i-K K-C K!U? K-i b9LIe 9uq 2w! ioo vu opc mcp qjcc oi,

ACWJC1Jt JJJC c9uqJU9Ai9U 1OJ1UJJ 0j ECOUOUIIC ô X-JOô

ocpu j yu nio1.wiou p92cq cxbJmJ9ou opc qouJc2iic p192 111 11J1CUJUOU9J fl!U 111-

Page 43: ad3M - National Bureau of Economic Research · 2004-08-24 · uuq 11BE1 C01flWPfl OH 43JO L C0JJCC joiq1 BOOW 314 A12q CV Ô35J JJJC OP!0 2WIG flU iCL2U? flU!AC12! 0I CJ1!PUJ c!'!q

nubnpppcq MOLJUU b9bcL bI.TIJ0u flIJIACL2i bLJ1JCOI? 4CM CL2CA

por? jummc boi.o1ro cpoicc uq sc bucrn !ii1p CCLOCUGOff2 UJIOLUJjIOU (fl)

IJJIC2

1'LL Iô c1IJ bIJC /I1 pCLOIICO PC1!C 10flU10L IC91 EC0U0-