Hoja1SIMULACIN Y ANLISIS ECONMICO PRELIMINAR DEL COMPLEJO PETROQUMICO DE PLSTICOSCUADRO 1. CAPACIDAD INSTALADA Y CONDICIONES DE OPERACINETILENOPEADPEBDPVCCondiciones de operacin24 h/d24 h/d24 h/d24 h/d30 d/mes30 d/mes30 d/mes30 d/mes12 meses/ao12 meses/ao12 meses/ao12 meses/aoConsumo de materia prima1.68TM Gas Natural/1TM Etileno2.48TM Gas Natural/TM PEAD1.72TM Gas Natural/TM PEBD1.722 TM Gas Natural/TM PVCEficiencia productiva95%95%95%95%Capacidad instalada707683.815 TM/ao421658.27 TM/ao84922.06 TM/ao80000 TM/aoCUADRO 2. PROGRAMA DE PRODUCCIN Y VENTASPEADPEBDPVCTOTALESAOUSO CAPACIDADPRODUCCIN (TM) VENTA (MILES $)PRODUCCIN (TM) VENTAS (MILES $)PRODUCCIN (TM) VENTAS (MILES $)PRODUCCIN (TM) VENTAS (MILES $)170%295160.79442741.1859445.442256566.535600084000410606.23783307.711172275%316243.70474365.5563691.545274892.716000090000439935.25839258.261970380%337326.62505989.9267937.648293218.896400096000469264.26895208.812768490%379492.44569238.6676429.854329871.2572000108000527922.301007109.9143645100%421658.27632487.4184922.06366523.6180000120000586580.331119011.0159606100%421658.27632487.4184922.06366523.6180000120000586580.331119011.0159607100%421658.27632487.4184922.06366523.6180000120000586580.331119011.0159608100%421658.27632487.4184922.06366523.6180000120000586580.331119011.0159609100%421658.27632487.4184922.06366523.6180000120000586580.331119011.01596010100%421658.27632487.4184922.06366523.6180000120000586580.331119011.015960CUADRO 3. PLAN DE INVERSIN FIJAETILENOPEADPEBDPVCCONCEPTOMONTO (MILES $)MONTO (MILES $)MONTO (MILES $)MONTO (MILES $)EQUIPO ADQUIRIDO (E)992559925699257132000INSTALACIN DEL EQUIPO38709387103871062040INSTRUMENTACIN27791277922779223760CAERAS Y TUBERAS30769307693077087120INSTALACIONES ELCTRICAS99269926992614520OBRAS CIVILES21836218362183723760MEJORAS DEL TERRENO99269926992613200INSTALACIONES DE SERVICIOS54590545915459292400TERRENO5955595559557920COSTO DIRECTO TOTAL DE LA PLANTA (D)298757298761298765456720INGENIERA Y SUPERVISIN (I)31762317623176243560GASTOS DE CONSTRUCCIN (I)33747337473374754120COSTO DIRECTO TOTAL ,DIRECTO E INDIRECTO (D+I)364266364270364274554400HONORARIOS DEL CONTRATISTA18213182141821427720EVENTUALES36427364273642755440INVERSIN DEL CAPITAL FIJO418906418911418915637560INVERSIN FIJA DEPRECIABLE292802292806292810448800COSTO DE PLANTA137964137966137968194040 CUADRO 4. COSTO VARIABLE UNITARIO (CVU)ETILENORUBROUNIDADINSUMO / PRODUCTO (unidad/kg producto)PRECIO INSUMO ($/UNIDAD)CVU ($/kg)A.FABRICACINGas naturaLkg1.680.022880.03843Monoetanolaminakg0.0000562.160510.0001209886N-metilpirrolidonakg0.00074.519430.003163601Oxgeno (95%)kg3.830.001150.00438918SUBTOTAL CVU Produccin0.0461037696B.Administracin0C.Ventas5%Pvprecio de venta5%(4.4974)0.12487TOTAL CVU0.171PEADRUBROUNIDADINSUMO / PRODUCTO (unidad/kg producto)PRECIO INSUMO ($/UNIDAD)CVU ($/kg)A.FABRICACINEtilenokg1.4770.31710.4683567Hidrgenokg0.0005115Catalizadorkg0.00590.310.001829UtilitiesCombustiblem30.003440.00010.000000344Energa elctricaKw-h0.01120.00320.00003584Agua de enfriamientom30.00005670.00150.000000085SUBTOTAL CVU Produccin0.470221969B.Administracin0C.Ventas5%Pvprecio de venta5%( 1.50 )0.075TOTAL CVU0.5452PEBDRUBROUNIDADINSUMO / PRODUCTOPRECIO INSUMO ($/UNIDAD)CVU ($/kg)A.FABRICACINEtilenokg1.0250.31710.3250275Catalizadores qumicos kg0.00590.310.001829Airem30.08160.180.014688UtilitiesCombustiblem30.001160.00010.000000116Energa elctricaKw-h0.5250.00320.00168Agua de enfriamientom30.00003380.00150.0000000507SUBTOTAL CVU Produccin0.3432246667B.Administracin0C.Ventas5%Pvprecio de venta5%( 4.316 )0.2158TOTAL CVU0.559PVCRUBROUNIDADINSUMO / PRODUCTOPRECIO INSUMO ($/UNIDAD)CVU ($/kg)A.FABRICACINEtilenokg1.2590.31710.3992289Catalizadores qumicos kg0.00590.310.001829Clorokg3.1930.41.2772UtilitiesCombustiblem30.001160.00010.000000116Energa elctricaKw-h0.5250.00320.00168Agua de enfriamientom30.00003380.00150.0000000507SUBTOTAL CVU Produccin1.6799380667B.Administracin0C.Ventas5%Pvprecio de venta5%(1.5 )0.075TOTAL CVU1.7549CUADRO 5. COSTOS FIJOS OPERATIVOSETILENOETILENOPEADPEBDPVCCOSTOS DE MANUFACTURA FIJOSMILES $ /AOMILES $ /AOMILES $ /AOMILES $ /AOPRODUCCIN (TONELADAS)907683.815421658.2784922.0680000A) COSTO DE MANUFACTURA1) MANO DE OBRA DIRECTA (MOD)152.4132.25637.63232.2562) GIF (GASTOS INDIRECTOS DE FRABRICACIN)MANO DE OBRA INDIRECTA (MOI) = 20%MOD30.486.457.536.45SUPERVISIN DIRECTA (20% [MOD + MOI])36.587.749.037.74SUMINISTROS (1%COSTO DE PLANTA)1379.641379.661379.681940.4MANTENIMIENTO Y REPARACIN (6%COSTO DE PLANTA)8277.848277.968278.0811642.4CONTROL DE CALIDAD (15%MOD)22.864.845.644.84DEPRECIACIN (10%INV.FIJA DEPRECIABLE)29280.229280.62928144880SEGURO DE FBRICA (3%INV.FIJA DEPRECIABLE)8784.068784.188784.313464GASTOS GENERALES DE PLANTA (0.5%INV.FIJA DEPRECIABLE)1464.011464.031464.052244SUBTOTAL DE COSTOS MANUFACTURA FIJOS49428.0849237.7249246.9474222.09B) GASTOS ADMINISTRATIVOS1274.61248.661249.841753.33C) GASTOS DE VENTAS0000D) TOTAL COSTOS FIJOS50703504865049775975.42CFU0.05585975990.11973202850.59462759150.9496927CUADRO 6. CLCULO DEL EPG PARA UN HORIZONTE DE 10 AOS1 AO2 AO3 AO4 AO5 AO6 AO7 AO8 AO9 AO10 AOPRODUCCIN (toneladas)PEAD295160.79316243.70337326.62379492.44421658.27421658.27421658.27421658.27421658.27421658.27VENTAS (miles de $)PEAD442741.18474365.55505989.92569238.66632487.41632487.41632487.41632487.41632487.41632487.41PRODUCCIN (toneladas)PEBD59445.4463691.5567937.6576429.8584922.0684922.0684922.0684922.0684922.0684922.06VENTAS (miles de $)PEBD256566.53274892.71293218.89329871.25366523.61366523.61366523.61366523.61366523.61366523.61PRODUCCIN (toneladas) PVC56000600006400072000800008000080000800008000080000VENTAS (miles de $) PVC840009000096000108000120000120000120000120000.00120000.00120000.00TOTAL DE VENTAS783307.71839258.26895208.811007109.911119011.021119011.021119011.021119011.021119011.021119011.02COSTOS OPERATIVOSCV ETILENO108649.75116410.45124171.15139692.54155213.93155213.93155213.93155213.93155213.93155213.93CV PEAD160921.66172416.07183910.47206899.28229888.09229888.09229888.09229888.09229888.09229888.09CV PEBD143420.69153665.02163909.36184398.03204886.70204886.70204886.70204886.70204886.70204886.70CV PVC98274.4105294112313.6126352.8140392140392140392140392140392140392CF ETILENO50703507035070350703507035070350703507035070350703CF PEAD50486504865048650486504865048650486504865048650486CF PEBD50497504975049750497504975049750497504975049750497CF PVC75975.4275975.4275975.4275975.4275975.4275975.4275975.4275975.4275975.4275975.42TOTAL DE COSTOS738927.92775446.96811965.99885004.06958042.14958042.14958042.14958042.14958042.14958042.14UAI44379.7963811.3183242.82122105.85160968.88160968.88160968.88160968.88160968.88160968.88TAX 30%13313.9419143.3924972.8536631.7648290.6648290.6648290.6648290.6648290.6648290.66UTILIDAD NETA31065.8544667.9258269.9785474.09112678.22112678.22112678.22112678.22112678.22112678.22FLUJO DE CAJA163787.65177389.72190991.77218195.89245400.02245400.02245400.02245400.02245400.02245400.02CUADRO 7. ESTIMACIN DEL FGOAOUTILIDAD miles $DEPRECIACIN miles $FGO miles $0131065.85132721.8163787.65244667.92132721.8177389.72358269.97132721.8190991.77485474.09132721.8218195.895112678.22132721.8245400.026112678.22132721.8245400.027112678.22132721.8245400.028112678.22132721.8245400.029112678.22132721.8245400.0210112678.22132721.8245400.02CUADRO 8. MTODO RETORNO SOBRE LA INVERSIN (ROI)COMPLEJO PETROQUMICOUTILIDAD miles $INVERSION miles $AO 01327218AO 131065.851327218AO 244667.921327218AO 358269.971327218AO 485474.091327218AO 5112678.221327218AO 6112678.221327218AO 7112678.221327218AO 8112678.221327218AO 9112678.221327218AO 10112678.221327218895547.15Utilidad por ao: (SU/n)89554.72ROI (%)6.75CUADRO 9. MTODO PAYBACK (PERIODO DE RECUPERACIN DEL CAPITAL INVERTIDO)CAPITAL INVERTIDO1894292AOFGO miles $013272181163787.652177389.723190991.77TERCER AO SE RECUPERA CAPITAL INVERTIDO4218195.895245400.026245400.027245400.028245400.029245400.0210245400.02CUADRO 10. MTODO VALOR ACTUAL NETO (VAN)Considerando una tasa de 5%AO FGO miles $fdVA en miles $0-13272181-13272181163787.650.9524155991.362177389.720.907160892.473190991.770.8638164978.694218195.890.8227179509.765245400.020.7835192270.926245400.020.7462183117.507245400.020.7107174405.798245400.020.6768166086.739245400.020.6446158184.8510245400.020.6139150651.07VAN358871ANALISIS: como el VAN >0, se acepta el proyecto de la planta de etilenoCUADRO 11. MTODO DE TASA DE RETORNO (TIR)AOFLUJO DE FONDOS EN MILES $R=5 %R=7%R=200 %R=206. 452%fdVAfdVAfdVAfdVA0-13272181-1327218111637880.9524155991.35917912321773900.907160892.47259183131909920.8638164978.69179972342181960.8227179509.7592278252454000.7835192270.91587712662454000.7462183117.49512126572454000.7107174405.79440188182454000.6768166086.73371491992454000.6446158184.853062406102454000.6139150651.072440291VAN358871.147416385