Process and methods Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI) MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

Process and methods

Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI)

MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute

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Multiple methods to improve assessment quality

Integrated modelling

Expert panel

Hydrological modelling

Agricultural modelling

Livelihood assessment



Estimated seasonal flow changes in the Nam Ngum Basin (Lacombe et al. 2012

Example: Hydrological modelling

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400 Agricultural Water Use

MM

3

• Large potential benefits• Total water use relatively small

relative to total basin outflows

Water requirements expand greatly with increased irrigated area

Estimated total Agricultural Water Use



Example: Agricultural modelling

What well being factors are you dissatisfied with?

Roads and Public transport

Domestic water supply

Electricity

Work availability and security

Family relations

Food availability and security

Health services

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Nam Ngum

CSIRO. Exploring Mekong Region Futures Page 12

Poverty levels Irrigation


(1) Keep the same set of livelihood activities and remain in their village (same and stay)

(2) Keep the same set of livelihood activities, but go somewhere else (same and go)

(3) Adjust their current set of livelihood activities (adjust) OR

(4) Replace current livelihood activities with a completely new set of activities (replace)

How will you respond to changes in livelihood factors?

Profits/production down by 50%: 35% of people would NOT adapt

Same and stay

employment in industry 62%

Irrigation systems built 52%

More competition-less water

57%

same and stay

same and go adjust replace0%5%

10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%


Adaptation intent by Province

Higher adaptation

Xiengkhouang Vientiane Vientiane Municipality

Profit down by 50% Adapt 65% 66% 63%

Competition for water Adapt 48% 42% 37%

New irrigation schemes Adapt 38% 51% 56%


Example: Integrated assessment

Markets (trans-boundary water,

commodities, labour)

Households (livelihoods, location,

income)

Landscape (land cover, soil, slopes)

Climate (rain, sea-level rise)

Flora (rice, food crops,

energy crops, rubber, trees, )

Government (i.e. approval for dams, mining,

plantations, railway)

Fauna (i.e. fish)

Improving assessment & covering more indicators

• Comparing results for consistency• Stakeholders will involved to keep

assessment on track• Continuous capacity building


Thank You

Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI): [email protected]

Dr John Ward (MERFI)[email protected]


mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Process and methods Dr Alexander Smajgl (MERFI) MERFI - Mekong Region Futures Institute