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Global EnvironmentalPolicy Making on Technology
環境・エネルギー技術政策
Global energy balance H t d t ti ti d t ?
17th and 24th, October, 2011Jun TAKAHASHI
How to read statistics data ? Long-term viewpoint Suspect an interpretation and the data itself !
How to make a policy ? Quiz
2008 Population Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption
OECD 1190 million 4.56 toe/capita 3.11 toe/capita
Non‐OECD 5498 million 1.24 toe/capita 0.86 toe/capita
ECD
ta) 1.6
Conversion loss
Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD and Non-OECD countries
rgy Co
nsum
ption of OE
CD cou
ntrie
s (toe
/cap
it
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4 ElectricityCombustibleGas OilCoal
Pow
er
atio
nSe
lf C
onsu
mpt
ion
Sectiona
l Ene
ran
d Non
‐OEC
0.0
0.2
0.4
Elec
tric
al
Gen
era
ConversionLoss
IndustrySector
TransportSector
OtherSectors
Non‐EnergyUse
OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non
Annual World Material Production
• Crude steel production: 1.4 billion tons Coking coal for steel production: 0.7 billion tons (= 0.1 tons per capita) World coal consumption: 3.3 billion tons (2.5 billion tons for fuel)
• Plastics production: 0.25 billion tons Oil consumption for plastic production: 0.5 billion tons World oil consumption: 4 billion tons (2.1 billion tons for transport)
4000
4500transport sector (non-OECD)transport sector （OECD)on
s)
Oil consumption of the world and transport sector
1/40 of the world (affordable) oil reserves
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500bunker oilother sectors
Con
sumption(M
illion t
Just burned in transport
sector
0
500
1000
1973 1980 1990 1995 2000 2005
World Oil
Source: EDMC, Energy & Economic Statistics 2011
Raw materialof plastics
2
1126
1639
World Energy Balance on 2003 (Source IEA statistics)
120%
140%
160%100% 147%
31
35
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Transport
Others
Non-energy2 3
27
18
39
26
10
13
115
14
20
167
21
24
68% 100%
Primary Energy Supplyby Fuel
53
0%
20%
40%
Final Energy Consumption
by Sector
Industry22 32
Final Energy Consumption
by Fuel
29 4336
3211
5315
OECD Energy Balance on 2003 (Source IEA statistics)
120%
140%
160%100% 144%
32
29
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Transport
Others
Non-energy2 4
23
23
33
34
215
142
321
203
22
21
70% 100%
Primary Energy Supplyby Fuel
58
0%
20%
40%
Final Energy Consumption
by Sector
Industry21 30
Final Energy Consumption
by Fuel
37 5340
Japanese Energy Balance on 2001 (Source EDMC2003)
120%
140%
160%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Industry=47
Transport=25
Residential &Commercial=27
Non-energy=2
Final Energy Consumption by
Sector
Final Energy Consumption by
Fuel
Primary Energy Supply by
Fuel
0%
20%
40%y
(Agriculture, Forestry,
Fishery, Mining, Construction,
Manufacturing)
4000 ElectricityCombustibleon
Sectional Energy Consumption of the WorldWorld Population Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption
1973 3890 million 6152 Mtoe 4606 Mtoe
2003 6268 million 10723 Mtoe 7287 Mtoe
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500 GasOilCoal
l Ene
rgy
Con
sum
ptio
the
Wor
ld (M
toe)
0
500
1000
ConversionLoss
IndustrySector
TransportSector
OtherSectors
Non-EnergyUse
1973 2003 1973 2003 1973 2003 1973 2003 1973 2003
Sec
tiona of
t
3
1800
2000ElectricityCombustibleG
OE
CD
oe
)
Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD and Non-OECD countries (2003)
Population Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption
OECD 1154 million 5395 Mtoe 3754 Mtoe
Non-OECD 5114 million 5328 Mtoe 3534 Mtoe
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600GasOilCoal
ergy
Con
sum
ptio
n of
O
ECD
cou
ntrie
s (M
to
0
200
400
600
Sect
iona
l Ene
of N
on-O
ConversionLoss
IndustrySector
TransportSector
OtherSectors
Non-EnergyUse
OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non
1 4
1.6ElectricityComb stibleO
EC
D
apita
)
Population Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption
OECD 1154 million 4.67 toe/capita 3.25 toe/capita
Non-OECD 5114 million 1.04 toe/capita 0.69 toe/capita
Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD and Non-OECD countries (2003)
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4 CombustibleGasOilCoal
ergy
Con
sum
ptio
n of
EC
D c
ount
ries
(toe/
ca
0.0
0.2
0.4
Sect
iona
l Ene
and
Non
-OE
ConversionLoss
IndustrySector
TransportSector
OtherSectors
Non-EnergyUse
OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non
1 4
1.6ElectricityComb stibleO
EC
D
apita
)
Population Total Primary Energy Supply Total Final Energy Consumption
OECD 1154 million 4.67 toe/capita 3.25 toe/capita
Non-OECD 5114 million 1.04 toe/capita 0.69 toe/capita
Sectional Energy Consumption of OECD and Non-OECD countries (2003)
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4 CombustibleGasOilCoal
ergy
Con
sum
ptio
n of
EC
D c
ount
ries
(toe/
ca
0.0
0.2
0.4S
ectio
nal E
nean
d N
on-O
E
ConversionLoss
IndustrySector
TransportSector
OtherSectors
Non-EnergyUse
OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non OECD Non
4
Total final energy consumption per capita (toe/person)
Total Primary Energy Supply
Total Final Energy Consumption
IndustrialSector
TransportationSector
Other SectorsN
J
Non-OECD
OECD
Upper -1973 Middle -1985Lower -2000
World
Sector Sector Non-energy use
3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0
India
China
USA
Japan
Unit: toe/person
Transition of the population in the worldSource: UN
n 9
10WorldOECD
opul
atio
n/ b
illio
n
4
5
6
7
8
9OECDNon-OECD
Po
0
1
2
3
1950 2000 2050
Transition of the population in the worldSource: UN
14
16
1.4
1.6
n
6
8
10
12
人口
（億人
）
中国
インド
アメリカ
ロシア
日本
ドイツ
イギリス
フランス
イタリア
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
opul
atio
n / b
illio
n
0
2
4
1950 2000 2050
イタリア
0
0.2
0.4
1950 2000 2050
Po
World Final Energy Consumption
8,000
9,000
10,000
(Mto
e)
Non Energy Use (Non-OECD)Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (Non-OECD)Transport Sector (Non-OECD)Industrial Sector (Non-OECD)Non Energy Use (OECD)Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (OECD)
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
nerg
y C
onsu
mpt
ion , g ( )
Transport Sector (OECD)Industrial Sector (OECD)
0
1,000
2,000
,
1971
1973
1980
1985
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000
Fina
l En
5
World Final Energy Consumption
8,000
9,000
10,000 (M
toe)
Non Energy Use (Non-OECD)Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (Non-OECD)Transport Sector (Non-OECD)Industrial Sector (Non-OECD)Non Energy Use (OECD)Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (OECD)
@20307,054×3.21→22,643Mtoe
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
ergy
Con
sum
ptio
n , g ( )Transport Sector (OECD)Industrial Sector (OECD)
4,901×0.49→2,424Mtoe
@20307,054×0.49→3,456Mtoe
0
1,000
2,000
,
1971
1973
1980
1985
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000
Fina
l En
1,125×3.21→3,612Mtoe
@20301,217×3.21→3,907Mtoe
6,027×1.00→6,035Mtoe
8,270×3.21→26,547Mtoe
Sustainable Energy Supply and Consumption
8 000
9,000
10,000
toe)
Non Energy Use (Non-OECD)Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (Non-OECD)Transport Sector (Non-OECD)Industrial Sector (Non-OECD)N E U (OECD)
@20308,270×0.70→5,800Mtoe
Non Fossil Fuel
3 000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
ergy
Con
sum
ptio
n (M Non Energy Use (OECD)
Residential, Commercial and Agriculture (OECD)Transport Sector (OECD)Industrial Sector (OECD)
5,800Mtoe
@20308,270×0.81
6 700Mtoe6,027×1.50
9 043Mtoe
Fossil Fuel
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
1971
1973
1980
1985
1990
1995
1998
1999
2000
Fina
l Ene →6,700Mtoe→9,043Mtoe
6
Calculation of the amount of solar energy
Reference World primary energy supply is about 1.5 toe/ year par capita 1 5 [toe/ year par capita] ＝ 40000 [kcal/day par capita] 1.5 [toe/ year par capita] ＝ 40000 [kcal/day par capita]
Human need energy of 2000 [kcal/day par capita] to live.
Solar energy flowing into the earth0.7×πR2 [m2] × 1367 [J/m2s]
＝0.7×1.286×1014[m2] ×1367 [J/m2s]＝1.23×1017[J/s]＝2.94×101３[kcal/s] （＝40000×104[kcal/day par capita]）
＝2.94[Mtoe/s] （＝1.5×104 [toe/year par capita]）
20000
25000
ion
(MJ)
Energy Consumption Structure of mini‐PHEV
weight without battery : 850kgaverage daily trip distance : 25.4km
El i iHEV
0
5000
10000
15000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Ener
gy C
onsu
mpt
i
Mitsubishi iMiEVWeight = 1100 kgPrice = 4.6M JPY
(50,000 USD)OCDD = 100‐160 kmBattery = 16 kWh
ElectricityGasoline
HEVPHEVCurrently planned
PHEVoptimal
BEV
Secondary Battery （kWh）
There is an optimal amount of secondary battery depends on the weight of vehicle and average daily trip distance.
Hence, the spread of such an optimal PHEV must be difficult in case of heavier cars and countryside.
Battery 16 kWh(2.3M JPY)
250
300
O2/km)
電気（日本の発電所）
電気（太陽光発電）2/km
)
CO2 Emission Structure of Japanese PHEV
Converted value
160g‐CO2/kmcurrent
130g‐CO /km
weight without battery : 1380kgaverage daily trip distance : 30km
Electricity by Japanese power supply compositionElectricity by solar energyG li
Coefficient of CO2emission by electricity
0
50
100
150
200
CO2排
出量
(g‐CO
ガソリン
電気（太陽光発電）
CO2em
ission
(g‐CO
2130g‐CO2/kmEU2015 target
95g‐CO2/kmEU2020 target
GasolineCountry kg‐CO2/kWh
India 1.490
China 1.034
Russia 0.927
USA 0.712
UK 0.564
EU 0.420
Japan 0.375
emission by electricity
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
二次電池容量 （kWh）
Combination of solar and PHEV shows a significant effect !!! 3m2 of PV generates 2kWh daily, hence PV‐PHEV is possible. The amount of secondary battery is more important from a
viewpoint of CO2 emission.
Secondary Battery （kWh）
France 0.069
PV 0.053
300
CO2 Emission Structure of PHEV in China
weight without battery : 1380kgaverage daily trip distance : 30km
100
150
200
250
O2排
出量
(g-C
O2/k
m) Electricity by Chinese power supply composition
Electricity by solar energyGasoline
O2
emis
sion
(g-C
O2/k
m)
0
50
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
CO
二次電池容量 （kWh）C
OSecondary Battery （kWh）
7
Global EnvironmentalPolicy Making on Technology
環境・エネルギー技術政策
Global energy balance H t d t ti ti d t ?
17th and 24th, October, 2011Jun TAKAHASHI
How to read statistics data ? Long-term viewpoint Suspect an interpretation and the data itself !
How to make a policy ? Quiz
Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (1990-2001)
380
400
Mto
e)
380
400Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe)CO2 Emission (Mt-C)
300
320
340
360
380
Energ
y C
onsu
mpt
ion (
M
300
320
340
360
380
O2 E
mis
sion (
Mt-
C)
260
280
300
1990 1995 2000
Tota
l Fin
al E
260
280
300
CO
Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (1973-2001)
360
380
400
n (
Mto
e)
360
380
400Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe)CO2 Emission (Mt-C)
260
280
300
320
340
360
Energ
y C
onsu
mpt
ion
260
280
300
320
340
360
O2 E
mis
sion (
Mt-
C)
287*0.94=270
200
220
240
1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998
Tota
l Fin
al
200
220
240
C
Japanese TFC and CO2 Emission (1965-2001)
400
n
400
150
200
250
300
350
l Energ
y C
onsu
mpt
io(M
toe)
150
200
250
300
350
Em
issi
on (
Mt-
C)
287*0.94=270
0
50
100
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Tota
l Fin
al
0
50
100 CO
2
Total Final Energy Consumption (Mtoe)
CO2 Emission (Mt-C)
8
Exchange Rate (yen/US$)
350
400
150
200
250
300
350
han
ge r
ate (ye
n/U
S$)
0
50
100
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Exc
h
Japanese CIF Price of Crude OilCIF: Cost + Insurance + Freight
35
40
($/b
l) 70
80
(yen
/L)$/bl
yen/L
15
20
25
30
e C
IF P
rice
of C
rude
Oil
(
30
40
50
60
CIF
Pric
e of
Cru
de O
il (
0
5
10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Japa
nese
0
10
20
Japa
nese
3 5
4.0
4.5
5.0
ion p
er
Cap
ita Primary Energy Consumption per Capita (toe/person)
World 1.50
OECD 4.72USA 8.17Canada 8 16
OECDAverage
1 0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
Ene
rgy
Cons
umpt
i(t
oe/pe
rson) Canada 8.16
Australia 5.74
Non-OECD 0.76China 0.74India 0.30
WorldAverage
N OECD
growth curve of 3.35% annual rate
0.0
0.5
1.0
1880
1890
1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year
Prim
ary
E NonOECDAverage
Logistic Function
600
700
a (m
illio
n)
300
400
500
asse
nge
r C
ars
in C
hin
a
stt mey /)(1
N
0
100
200
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050Year
Num
ber
of
P
9
Japanese TFC by Sector (Mtoe)
350
400to
e)
Non-EnergyCommercialResidentialTransport (Freight)Transport (Passenger)
150
200
250
300
Energ
y C
onsu
mption (M
t p ( g )Industry (Non-Manufacture)Industry (Manufacture)
0
50
100
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Tota
l Fin
al E
Japanese Final Energy Consumption per capita
3 00
3.50
4.00
n pe
r cap
ita
Non-energyCommercialResidentialTransport (Freight)Transport (Passenger)
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
inal
Energ
y C
onsu
mption
(toe/pers
on)
p gIndustry (Non-manufacture)Industry (Manufacture)
0.00
0.50
1.00
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Jap
anese
F
Change of TFC by Sector (in comparison with 1973)
2.5
3.0
n by
Secto
r Industry (Manufacture)Industry (Non-Manufacture)Transport (Passenger)Transport (Freight)R id ti l
1 0
1.5
2.0
Fin
al E
nerg
y C
onsu
mptio Residential
CommercialNon-Energy
0.0
0.5
1.0
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Chan
ge o
f Tota
l F
Energy Consumption in Transportation Sector (Mtoe)
80
90
100
Secto
r (M
toe)
Car (Private)Car (Business)BusTruckAi l
40
50
60
70
tion
in T
ransp
ort
ation
S AirplaneShipRailway
0
10
20
30
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Energ
y C
onsu
mpt
10
The Items of Final Energy Consumption
Industrial Sector
• Manufacturing– Material
• Steel• Chemicals
Residential Sector
– Heating– Cooling– Hot Water Supply– Cooking
Transport Sector
• Passenger– Car (Private)– Car (Commercial)• Chemicals
• Cement• Paper and Pulp
– Processing/assembly• Foods• Textile• Nonferrous metal• Machines• Others
Cooking– Power & etc.
Commercial Sector
( )– Bus– Airplane– Ship– Railway
• Freight– Truck– Airplane
• Non-manufacturing– Agriculture, Forestry
& Fishery– Mining– Construction
p– Ship– Railway
Non Energy Use
– Asphalt, grease, paraffin, lubricating oil, etc.
最終エネルギー消費部門の分類
産業部門
• 製造業– 素材系
• 鉄鋼
家庭部門
– 暖房– 冷房– 給湯
運輸部門
• 旅客– 自家用乗用車– 営業用乗用車鉄鋼
• 化学• 窯業土石• 紙・パルプ
– 非素材系• 食品煙草• 繊維• 非鉄金属• 金属機械
他
給湯– 厨房– 動力・照明他
業務部門
営業用乗用車– バス– 旅客航空– 旅客海運– 旅客鉄道
• 貨物– 貨物自動車– 貨物航空
• その他
• 非製造業– 農林水産業– 鉱業– 建設業
– 貨物海運– 貨物鉄道
非エネルギー
– アスファルト、グリース、パラフィン、潤滑油等
Energy Consumption in Passenger Transport (Mtoe)
50
60
ger
Tra
nsp
ort
Car (Private)
Car (Business)
Bus
20
30
40
onsu
mpt
ion in P
asse
ng
(Mto
e)
Airplane
Ship
Railway
0
10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Fin
al E
nerg
y C
o
Passenger Transport Activity (billion passenger-kilometers)
1,400
1,600
y )
Car (Private)Car (Business)
600
800
1,000
1,200
ger
Tra
nsp
ort
Activi
tyas
senge
r-ki
lom
ete
rs)
BusAirplaneShipRailway
0
200
400
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Pas
seng
(bill
ion p
11
55
60
65
70
nsp
ort
Activi
ty
Avarage Car (Private)Car (Business) BusAirplane ShipRailway
Energy Consumption per Passenger Transport Activity
25
30
35
40
45
50
ptio
n p
er
Pas
senge
r Tra
n(g
OE/pa
ssenge
r-km
)
0
5
10
15
20
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Energ
y C
onsu
mp
Energy Consumption in Freight Transport (Mtoe)
30
35
nsp
ort
(M
toe)
Truck
Airplane
Ship
15
20
25
sum
ptio
n in F
reig
ht
Tra Railway
0
5
10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Fin
al E
nerg
y C
ons
500
600
y )
TruckAirplaneShipRailway
Freight Transport Activity (billion tones-kilometers)
200
300
400
ght
Tra
nsp
ort
Activi
tyon t
onne-ki
lom
ete
rs) y
0
100
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Fre
ig(b
illio
Energy Consumption per Freight Transport Activity (2)
120
140
ort
Activi
ty
AvarageTruckAirplaneShip
60
80
100
tion p
er
Fre
ight
Tra
nsp
o(g
OE/to
n-km
)
ShipRailway
0
20
40
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Energ
y C
onsu
mpt
12
Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector
50
60
um
ptio
nM
toe
Power & etc.CookingHot water supplyH i
10
20
30
40
ese
Energ
y C
onsu
dential
Secto
r / M Heating
Cooling
0
10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Jap
anin
Resi
Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector
16
18
20
mpt
ion in
toe
CoolingHeatingHot water supplyC ki
4
6
8
10
12
14
ese
Energ
y C
onsu
mde
ntial
Secto
r / M
t CookingPower & etc.
0
2
4
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Jap
ane
Resi
d
Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector
0.35
0.40
0.45
ptio
n in
ar c
apita Power & etc.
CookingHot water supplyHeatingCooling
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
ese
Energ
y C
onsu
mntial
Secto
r / t
oe p
a Cooling
0.00
0.05
0.10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000Year
Jap
ane
Resi
de
Japanese Population and The Number of Households
120
140
ber
of
3.0
3.5
hold
40
60
80
100
pula
tion a
nd
The N
um
bH
ouse
hold
s (m
illio
n)
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
he N
um
ber
Per
House
h
Population
Number of Households
Number per Household
0
20
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Pop
0.0
0.5
Th
13
Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector
1.00
1.20
esi
dent
ial
Power & etc.CookingHot water supplyHeatingCooling
0.40
0.60
0.80
nerg
y C
onsu
mption
in R
eSecto
r / t
oe p
er
fam
ily
0.00
0.20
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Jap
anese
En
Japanese Energy Consumption in Residential Sector
0.30
0.35
0.40
esi
dent
ial
CoolingHeatingHot water supplyCookingPower & etc.
0.15
0.20
0.25
nerg
y C
onsu
mption
in R
eSecto
r / t
oe p
er
fam
ily
0.00
0.05
0.10
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Year
Jap
anese
En
Transition of population composition of Japan
120
140
Milli
on
year %
% of after 65
40
60
80
100
se P
opul
atio
in /
M
total
15 64
1970 71980 91990 122000 172010 232020 28
0
20
40
1950 2000 2050
Japa
ne 15 - 64
after 652030 302040 332050 36
14
Theme Consider effective policy to reduce world’s fossil fuel consumption by using
statistics shown in today’s lecture or following website first. http://www.iea.org/
Student’s Presentation at 24th October
Then, show your assumption about technological development, i.e. electric vehicle, and introducing schedule of the technologies to our society.
Evaluate the long term effect of the technologies on the reduction of fossil fuel consumption till 2050 quantitatively based on your assumption.
Presentation and Submission at 24th October You have to make a group which consists of 2 to 5 students You have to make a group which consists of 2 to 5 students. Discuss well about your presentation in your group. Every group have to make a 15 to 20 minutes presentation by using Microsoft
powerpoint. After the class, the slide which includes names of the group member have to submit by e-mail to [email protected].
If you can’t contribute any presentation, you should submit more than 10 pages PPT file by e-mail to [email protected] by 24th October.
