THUYẾT TRÌNH QTDMĐT

8/2/2019 THUYT TRNH QTDMT

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A. PHN TCH VI M

Mi trng v m tc ng trc tip v gin tip vo mi trng kinh doanh cadoanh nghip. Phn tch mi trng v m theo phng php PESTEL l tin hnh phn

tch cc yu t (Polistic, Economic, Sociocultrural, Tecnology, Legal vEnvironmental).

a. Tnh hnh chnh tr:

T chc Ri ro Kinh t & Chnh tr (PERC) ti Hng Kng nh gi Vit Nam l nc

c mi trng chnh tr v x hi n nh so

vi cc nc khc trong khu vc, nht l sau

khi a ra chnh sch i mi, Vit Nam vang t c mc tng trng GDP n nh

l mt ni an ton u t kinh doanh.

Cuc tranh chp trn bin ng vi s tham

gia tch c*c ca M v cc nc ng minh: Australia, Nht Bn, Hn Quc phn no

lm cn bng lc lng cc bn, ha hn n s n nh chung trong khu vc.

Tnh hnh kinh t:

Cc ch s v m c bn 9 thng u nm 2011:

Trang: 1


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Tng sn phm trong nc

(GDP) 9 thng nm 2011 c tnh

tng 5,76% so vi cng k nm

2010. Trong , khu vc nng, lm

nghip v thy sn tng 2,39; khu

vc cng nghip v xy dng tng

6,62%; khu vc dch v tng

6,24%. GDP 9 thng u nm tnh

theo gi thc t t 1.710.214 t

ng. Kinh t Vit Nam nm 2011 s tng trng 5,8% v s tng nhanh tr li mc

6,3% trong nm 2012

Lm pht cui nm din bin theo xu hng tch cc:

Trang: 2

8.23% 8.46%

6.31% 5.32%

6.78%5.76%

0.00%

2.00%

4.00%

6.00%

8.00%

10.00%

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sep-11

d?? ? dE' ' WYhdC NAM


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T l lm pht ti Vit Nam lun bin

ng khng ngng v lun gi mc cao

nm 2007 l 12,6%, nm 2008 l 19,9%,

nm 2009 l 6,5%, nm 2010 l 11,8%,

khin nn kinh t ang tng trng nhanh

nhng cng tim n nhiu ri ro. Lm pht

cao lm gia tng chi ph sn xut dn n

tng gi thnh sn phm, lm mt kh nng

cnh trnh ca doanh nghi p trn thi trng.

Ch s gi tiu dng (CPI) duy tr mc

cao, nhng c du hiu gim, tnh n thng

9/2011 CPI tng 0,82% so

vi thng 8. Ti 2 thnh ph

ln l H Ni v thnh ph

H Ch Minh, ch s CPI

tng ln lt l 0,2% v

0,88%. Lm pht trung bnh

c nm 2011 ca Vit Nams mc 18,8%, (ng nht

Chu , ng 2 th gii ch

sau Venezuela), l d bo

ca Qu tin t quc t (IMF) Theo bo co trin vng kinh t th gii va mi cng b

Cng theo IMF, nguyn nhn lm pht ch yu do gi lng thc tng cao nhng mc

lm pht trn sau s gim xung mc 12,1% trong nm ti 2012. Trong thi im

ny, chnh ph buc phi a mc tiu km ch lm pht ln trn mc tiu duy tr pht

trin kinh t. Cc gi kch cu ngng, chnh ph tht cht chi tiu cng, ban hnh cc

chnh sch tht cht tin t, kim sot knh cho vay ca cc ngn hng, kim sot nhp

siu, khng ch gi c tiu dng.

Trang: 3

Ngun: Tng Cuc

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

/D& ? K>?D W, T NAM2011

1.74%2.09%

2.17%

3.32%

2.21%

1.09%1.17%0.93%0.92%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

d?? ?

TANG CPI


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Li sut cho vay: Li sut l yu t tc ng khng nh n hot ng sn xut

kinh doanh ca cc doanh nghi p. Sau khi Ngn hng Nh nc yu cu cc NHTM

thc hin trn li sut huy ng 14% (t ngy 7-9) v khuyn khch cho vay 18-

19%/nm (so vi mc 23, 24% trc y) nhng vn mc rt cao so. Tuy nhin, hin

ti ch mi c khong 5% doanh nghi p tip cn c vi li sut 19%/nm cn li u

phi trn mc ny. L do l vic huy ng tin gi t ngi dn khng d, k t khi p

dng trn li sut huy ng 14%, ngn hng chng nhng khng huy ng c m

cn b rt ra n vi chc t ng mi ngy.Mt khc, ngn hng cng khng quan tmnhiu n vic cho vay trong thi im ny, v tng trng tn dng cn k vi mc

20%/nm do NHNN quy nh. V c bn, cc doanh nghip va v nh rt kh tip cn

ngun vn ca ngn hng, tuy nhin Li sut cho vay u nm 2012 c th xung 14-

15%, v nm 2013 l 12-13%, y l thng tin tch cc cho cc nh u t.

T gi hi oi: T gi bnh qun lin ngn hng gia VND vi USD ngy 20/10

do Ngn hng Nh nc cng

b tng thm 5 ng ln

20.738 VND. y l ln iu

chnh th mi lin tip trong

thng k t thi im ngy

11/2/2011 (tng 9,3%).

Nguyn nhn lm t gi tng:

Th nht, y l thi im DNy mnh nhp khu. Trong

Trang: 4

16.00017.000

18.00019.00020.000

21.000

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

/

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/

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7?* , 8 6' / ,1 1 * 1+NG


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khi, kim ngch XK khng t nh mong mun, gy ra s thiu ht, to sc p lm tng

gi ng USD. Th 2, Do nh hng ca khng hong kinh t ton cu, gi vng th

gii tng cao, th trng vng trong nc c du hiu nng, ngun cung li thiu do ti

thi im u nm nc ta xut khu mt lng vng ln, ng thi khng cho php

nhp khu vng. V th mt lng vng ln c nhp lu vo nc ta, gy ra tnh

trng khan him USD m khng o m c.

Thu ht u t trc tip ca nc ngoi (FDI) c du hiu suy yu, nhng

c cu dch chuyn tch cc: Tnh

n ngy 22/9/2011 t 9,9035 t

USD, bng 72,1% cng k nm

2010. Vn FDI thc hin 9 thngnm 2011 c tnh t 8,2 t USD,

tng 1,9% so vi cng k nm

trc

Theo lnh vc u t: Lnh vc

cng nghip ch bin, ch to thu

ht c s quan tm ca nh u

t nc ngoi vi tng s vn cp

mi v tng thm l 4,91 t USD, chim 49,6% tng vn u t. Lnh vc sn xut phn

phi in ng th hai vi 2,52 t USD, chim 25,5%. ng th 3 l xy dng vi tng

vn khong 689,3 triu USD, chim 7%. Tip theo l dch v lu tr v n ung vi

446,8 triu USD, chim 4,5%.

Theo i tc u t: C 47 quc gia

v vng lnh th c d n u t tiVit Nam. Hng Kng dn u vi

tng vn l 2,9 t USD, chim

29,3% tng vn u t vo Vit

Nam; Singapore ng th hai vi

1,5 t USD, chim 15,2%; Nht Bn

ng 3 vi 927,3 triu USD, chim

9,4%; tip theo l Hn Quc vi894,1 triu USD, chim 9% v Trung Quc vi 606,4 triu USD, chim 6,1%.

Trang: 5

49.60%

25.50%

7%

4.50%

13.40%

d?E' s ?E&/ ? hd? E'


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c. X hi:

Theo nh gi ca Tng cc Thng k, c cu dn s theo tui ca Vit Nam

thay i theo hng tch cc. T trng dn s di 15 tui gim t 33,1% (nm 1999)

xung cn 24,5%. Ngc li, t trng dn s nhm tui 15 - 64 (l nhm tui ch lc

ca lc lng lao ng) tng t 61,1% ln 69,1%. C th ni y l thi k ca c cu

dn s vng, tuy nhin li th ny s khng cn na khi kinh t pht trin mc lng

ca lao ng s tng ln. Pht trin ngun nhn lc cht lng cao s l mc tiu v xu

hng chnh trong chin lc pht trin kinh t ca Vit Nam giai on 2011 - 2020.

d. Cng ngh:

Trong cc yu t cn thit pht trin kinh t, x hi ca mt quc gia nh vn,

ngun nhn lc, h thng qun l th khoa hc v cng ngh c xem nh l yu t

quan trng nht, to gi tr gia tng cao cho cc sn phm lao ng, to ng lc cho s

pht trin bn vng v lu di. Gn y, Nh nc quan tm tng mc u t cho

khoa hc, nhng vn cn xa so vi yu cu pht trin theo kp cc nc trong khu

vc. Chi ph bnh qun cho mt cn b KH&CN/nm: Vit Nam < 1.000 USD, Nht

194.000 USD, Thi Lan 18.000 USD.

e. H thng Php lut:

H thng php lut ngy cng ph hp hn vi thng l quc t, cht ch hn

v qun l, bo v quyn li ngi lao ng.

Chnh ph ang rt quyt tm ci cch th tc hnh chnh v to hnh lang

php l tt, thng thong cho doanh nghip.

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B.PHN TCH NGNHTh trng chng khon i qua im thp nht nhng vn cha th c s t

bin trong nhng thng cui nm 2011 v u nm 2012. Hin thc ha li nhun khi

VN-Index vt 460 im, HNX-Index vt 78 im v c th mua vo khi VN-Indexv di 420 im, HNX-Index v mc di 70 vi cc nh u t ngn v trung hn.

i vi cc nh u t di hn, k vng th trng c s chuyn bin tch cc, v vy

nhng phin gim im l c hi tch ly c phiu. Cc ngnh c trin vng tt m nh

u t c th theo di v gii ngn trong thi gian ti: Ti chnh - ngn hng, du kh,vn ti bin v mt s c phiu thuc ngnh thc phm.

Trang: 7

6.75.2 5.7

13.2

4.3 4.4

20.8

2.189

8.515

5.647

1.620 1.924 1.569 1.270

0

5

10

15

20

25

- NG N A M N THNG NG

P/E

EPS


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Michael porter Nh hoch nh chin lc v cnh tranh hng u th gii hin

nay cung cp mt khung l thuyt phn tch, ng m hnh ha cc ngnh kinh

doanh v cho rng ngnh kinh doanh no cng phi chu tc ng ca 5 lc lng cnh

tranh.

1. Ngnh sa:

* p lc t nh cung cp: S mc c ca nh cung cp nguyn liu sa trong

nc hn ch (95% b sa c nui ti h gia nh, ch 5% c nui ti cc tri

chuyn bit vi qui m t 100-200 con tr ln). iu ny cho thy ngi dn nui b tpht, dn n vic khng m bo s lng v cht lng v lm gim kh nng thng

lng ca cc nh cung cp trong nc. Vic thiu kinh nghim qun l, quy m trang

tri nh, t l ri lon sinh sn v mc bnh ca b sa cn mc cao khin ngi

nng dn nui b sa rt bt li. Do , cng ty sa nm th ch ng trong vic

thng lng gi thu mua sa trong nc.Nhng hn 70% nguyn liu u vo l nhp

khu, ngun cung t cc nc New Zealand, c tng nh trong khi cu nhp khu t

cc nc chu tng ln, c bit l Trung Quc. Trong thi gian ti, gi sa bt c xuhng tng s gy p lc ln ngnh sn xut sa Vit Nam. Nh vy nng lc thng

lng ca nh cung cp tng i cao

* p lc t ngi mua:Ngnh sa khng chu p lc bi bt c nh phn phi

no. i vi sn phm sa, khi gi nguyn liu mua vo cao, cc cng ty sa c th bn

vi gi cao m khch hng vn phi chp nhn. Do vy ngnh sa c th chuyn nhng

bt li t pha nh cung cp bn ngoi sang cho khch hng. Nng lc thng lng ca

ngi mua thp.

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* p lc t sn phm thay th: Mt hng sa hin nay cha c sn phm thay

th. Tuy nhin, nu xt rng ra nhu cu ca ngi tiu dng, s c s cnh tranh gia

cc sn phm trong ngnh v th phn, v d nh sa u nnh hay cc sn phm

ung: ng cc, ca cao, nc khi khtc th lm gim th phn ca cc sn phm sa

nc.

* p lc t nhng i th mi: c im ngnh sa l tng trng n nh, li

nhun cao, th phn tng i n nh; gia nhp ngnh i hi cc cng ty mi

phi c tim lc vn ln vt qua cc hng ro gia nhp nh:

- c trng ha sn phm: Th trng sa Vit Nam c mt ca hu ht cc

hng sa ln trn th gii v chim th phn nht nh v t thay i.

- Knh phn phi: Khi gia nhp phi thuyt phc cc knh phn phi bng cch

chp nhn chia s nhiu hoa hng, dn n chi ph tng cao hn.

Do , c th kt lun rng p lc t nhng i th mi l khng ng k, m

cnh tranh ch yu s din ra trong ni b ngnh hin ti.

* p lc t nhng i th trong ngnh: Ngnh sa b cnh tranh cao cc

cng ty sa trong ngnh nh Hanoimilk, Abbott, Mead Jonson, Nestl, Dutch lady

Trong tng lai, th trng sa Vit Nam tip tc m rng v mc cnh tranh ngy

cng cao.=> Nh vy ngnh sa l mi trng kh hp dn i vi cc nh u t, v s

cnh tranh cao, ro cn gia nh p th trng tng i cao, cha c sn phm thay th

no tt trn th trng, ngi mua c v th khng cao.

2. Ngnh h tng cng bin:

* S mc c i vi nh cung cp: Nh cung cp thng bao gm cc i xe,

i x lan v i sa cha containerS lng cc nh cung cp cng 1 loi dch v

ny l kh nhiu nn kh nng m phn gi ca doanh nghip ngnh cng bin tng

i ln.

* Sc mc c i vi khch hng: Khch hng gm 2 nhm ch yu: cc hng

tu v cc nh Xut - Nhp khu. Sc mnh mc c khch hng kh cao do c th

trong cng mt khu vc a l c nhiu cc cng ging nhau v chc nng v dch v

cung cp. Bn cnh chi ph khi chuyn t vic s dng dch v ca cng ny sang

dch v ca cng khc trong cng 1 cm cng l khng thc s cao.

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* Sn phm thay th: Vn ti bin vn l phng thc ph bin nht trong cc

phng thc vn ti. Hin i vi cc th trng XNK ln ca Vit Nam nh u, M

2 phng thc vn ti ch yu l vn ti ng khng v vn ti bin, song vn ti bin

c u th vt tri v tit kim chi ph cng vi kh nng vn chuyn c nhng loi

hng ha cng knh v khi lng ln.

*p lc t i th mi: Vi nm tr li y khi nhu cu u t xy mi cng

bin ngy cng cao, nh nc dn dn c cc c ch m ca nhm thu ht u t

nc ngoi vo lnh vc ny. Do ro cn gia nhp ngnh s dn dn c h thp

trong tng lai khng xa.

* p lc cnh tranh ni b ngnh: Cnh tranh trong ngnh cng bin hin nay

l kh ln, cc cng ty ln trong ngnh: Cng ty c phn u t v pht trin cng nh

V (DVP), Cng ty c phn Container Vit Nam (VSC).. cc cng ty ch yu cnh tranh

v gi thnh, dch v c t s khc bit cc cng ty khin khch hng xem xt yu t v

tr a l v so snh gi c khi la chn cng khin p lc cnh tranh cng gia tng.

=> Ngnh h tng cng bin d bo u tt trong ngn hn v di hn. Tng

trng GDP c d bo mc 5,8% v s tng ln 6,3% nm 2012 s lm tng nhu

cu i vi dch v cng, cc cng ty s c hng li t vic ng VN mt gi so

vi USD s lm tng li nhun cho cc doanh nghi p trong ngnh. V nhng u tin caChnh ph v vic vic qui hoch cng bin Vit Nam n nm 2015 s gip ch rt

nhiu cho cc doanh nghi p.

3. Ngnh Ti chnh - ngn hng:

* Ap lc t nh cung cp: Khi nim nh cung cp trong ngn hng kh a

dng. H c th l nhng c ng cung cp vn cho ngn hng hot ng, nhng cng

ty chu trch nhim v h thng hoc bo tr my ATM. Hin ti Vit Nam cc ngn

hng thng t u t trang thit b v chn cho mnh nhng nh cung cp ring ty

theo iu kin. iu ny gp phn gim quyn lc ca nh cung cp thit b khi h

khng th cung cp cho c mt th trng ln m phi cnh tranh vi cc nh cung cp

khc. Tuy nhin khi tn mt khon chi ph kh ln vo u t h thng, Ngn hng

s khng mun thay i nh cung cp v qu tn km, iu ny li lm tng quyn lc

ca nh cung cp thit b thng thu.

Nhn chung hu ht cc ngn hng Vit Nam u nhn u t ca mt ngnhng khc. Quyn lc ca nh u t s tng ln rt nhiu nu nh h c c phn v

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vic sp nhp vi ngn hng c u t c th xy ra. mt kha cnh khc, ngn

hng u t s c mt tc ng nht nh n ngn hng c u t: t n dng cng

ngh hin i, chia s kinh nghim qun l, iu hnh...

* Ap lc t khch hng: Vic sng cn ca ngn hng da trn ng vn huy

ng c ca khch hng. Nu khng cn thu ht c dng vn ca khch hng th

ngn hng tt nhin s b o thi, nh ni phn trn nguy c thay th ca ngn

hng Vit Nam i vi khch hng tiu dng l kh cao. Vi chi ph chuyn i thp,

khch hng gn nh khng mt mt g nu mun chuyn ngun vn ca mnh ra khi

ngn hng v u t vo mt ni khc.

* Ap lc t sn phm thay th: i vi khch hng doanh nghip th nguy c

ngn hng b thay th khng cao lm, nhng i vi khch hng tiu dng th li kh

cao. Ngoi hnh thc gi tit kim, khch hng c nhiu la chn: ngoi t, chng

khon, bo him, kim loi qu: vng, ngoi t hoc nh t. l cha k cc hnh

thc khng hp php nh chi hi. Khng phi lc no li sut ngn hng cng hp

dn ngi tiu dng. Chng hn nh thi im ny, gi vng ang st, tng gim t

bin trong ngy, trong khi la M th trng t do cng bin ng th li sut tit

kim ca a s cc ngn hng ch mc 7-8% mt nm.

* Ap lc t cc i th mi: K t u nm 2011, cc ngn hng nc ngoic i x bnh ng nh ngn hng trong nc. Cc ngn hng nc ngoi danh

ting trn th gii vi b dy kinh nghim trong qu trnh kinh doanh tin t, kinh

nghim qun l tin tin, cng ngh hin i, nhn vin vi trnh chuyn mn cao.

y l cc i th ln ca cc ngn hng Vit Nam.

* Ap lc cnh tranh trong ngnh:

Cng canh tranh ca cc ngn hng cng tng cao khi c s xut hin ca

nhm ngn hng 100% vn nc ngoi. Ngn hng nc ngoi thng sn c mt phn

khc khch hng ring, a s l doanh nghip t nc h. H phc v nhng khch

hng ny t rt lu nhng th trng khc v khi khch hng m rng th trng sang

Vit Nam th ngn hng cng m vn phng i din theo. Ngoi ra, ngn hng ngoi

cn c khng t li th nh h tng dch v hn hn, dch v khch hng chuyn nghip,

cng ngh tt hn (in hnh l h thng Internet banking). Quan trng hn na, l

kh nng kt ni vi mng li rng khp trn nhiu nc ca ngn hng ngoi, khincho s cnh tranh t khi ngn hng tr nn khc lit hn.

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Trc mt, vi kinh nghim hot ng lu nm ti th trng ni a, mng li

rng, cc quan h gy dng, ngn hng trong nc s vn c li th. Tuy nhin, nu

khng ci tin dch v, trang thit b hin i, ngun nhn lc cht lng cao... v hot

ng hiu qu, s phi chia s th phn v li nhun vi nhng ngi khng l nh

HSBC, ANZ, Standard Charter Bank

=> Vi nh hng u tin n nh v m, kim ch lm pht, khng ch tng

trng Tn dng mc ti a 20%, cng vi cc bin php ng b t NHNN: ci thin

mi trng php l, nhm nng cao cht lng h thng tn dng, kim sot ri ro.

Trong tng lai ngnh Ti Chnh Ngn Hng k vng s tng trng mnh.

C. PHN TCH CNG TY

1. NGN HNG TMCP NGOI THNG VIT NAM:

A. PHN TCH 7P TRONG NGN HNG:

Thng thng cu trc sn phm ngn hng bao gm: sn phm

(Products), gi (Price), truyn thng (Promotion), phn phi

(Place), con ngi (People), quy trnh (Process), Nhng chng

nhn, gii thng uy tn (Physical evidence).

1. San phm Dch v: Cung cp cho khch hng y

cc dch v ti chnh hng u trong lnh vc thng

mi quc t; trong cc hot ng truyn thng nh kinh

doanh vn, huy ng vn, tn dng, ti tr d ncng nh mng dch v ngn hng

hin i: kinh doanh ngoi t v cc cng v phi sinh, dch v th, ngn hng in t

tng bc khng nh VCB ang tin dn vo v th mc tiu l mt trong 5 ngn hng

hng u v dch v bn l.

2. Gia ca San phm - Dich vu: Vi cam kt lun em li li ch tt nhtcho khch

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hng s dng, VCB c nhng chnh sch u i v gi tt nht cho cc sn phm,

dch v ca mnh: khch hng vay vn, gi tit kim, thc hin dch v thanh ton

3. Knh phn phi: Vietcombank hin c khong 11.500 cn b nhn vin, gm Hi

s chnh ti H Ni, 1 S Giao dch, 74 chi nhnh v gn 300 phng giao dch trn

ton quc, 3 cng ty con ti Vit Nam, 2 cng ty con ti nc ngoi, 1 vn phng i

din ti Singapore, 4 cng ty lin doanh, 2 cng ty lin kt. Bn cnh , VCB cn pht

trin mt h thng Autobank vi khong 16.300 my ATM v im chp nhn thanh

ton th (POS) trn ton quc. Hot ng ngn hng cn c h tr bi mng li

hn 1.300 ngn hng i l ti 100 quc gia v vng lnh th.

4. Ngun nhn lc: Sn phm, dch v ngn hng ngoi cc tnh cht v

cng ngh,

my mc, trang thit b hin i cn thit c s tham gia ca nhn vin ngn hng v

khch hng vo qu trnh to nn sn phm. Do vy trnh cng nh thi ca nhn

vin chnh l mt phn ca dch v, nhn vin c phong cch chuyn nghip, thi

tn tnh ci m, s l mt trong nhng nhn t gy n tng tt vi khch hng v

gip h nh gi cao cht lng dch v ca Ngn hng.

5. Quy trinh: Quy trnh ng vai tr quan trng trong vic nng cao cht lng dch

v. Ngn hng s c nh gi cao khi khng ngng ci tin quy trnh phc v, nngcao cht lng dch v

6. Chinh sch c ng:

- Xy dng h thng nhn din thng hiu: t logo, slogan, mu sc ng phc, name

card, phong b th, letter head

- Qung co: Cc hnh thc qung co trn bo ch, Internet, i pht thanh truyn hnh,

in thoi di ng

- T chc cc s kin (PR): Thng bo trn bo ch trc s xut hin ca sn phm

ngn hng, cc hot ng ti tr, hot ng x hi.

7. Chng nhn, gii thng uy tn:

- Gii thng quc t: Giai thng trong nc:

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8. Chc nng bo v:

V pha khch hng:

H tr khch hng thm nh d n c nhng li t vn ph hp gip khch

hng kim tra tnh hiu qu ca d n

Qua gip khch hng nhn din v trnh c cc ri ro v ti chnh v

php l khi tin hnh vay vn nhm thc hin hot ng kinh doanh

T khch hng chn la vic u t an ton hiu qu, bo v c ngunlc ti chnh, ti sn cho chnh khch hng

Thng hiu, uy tn ca khch hng cng s c gi vng khi khng nm

trong cc trng hp n xu

V pha ngn hng:

Gip ngn hng kim sot nhng ri ro ngay t ban u khi thm nh h s

vay vn t gp phn trnh nhng khon n xu tim n

Cng khch hng theo di st sao qu trnh s dng vn v hiu qu s dngvn c nhng cnh bo, h tr kp thi cho c hai pha-khch hng v ngn hng

nhm bo v ngun vn, ti sn lin quan

Thng hiu, uy tn ca ngn hng cng s c gi vng khi hot ng kinh

doanh c an ton trong khun kh quy nh nh nc

B. HI NG C NG:

Trang: 14


15/25

Thc hin ch o ca Th tng,NHNN c ng Nguyn Ha Bnh Ch tchHQT v ng Nguyn Phc Thanh TngGim c, mi ngi i din cho 30% VCP

Nh nc ti VCB; ng Phm Huyn Anh

V trng V Chnh sch an ton hot ngngn hng lm y vin HQT kim nhimca VCB i din cho 40% vn c phn ca

Nh nc ti VCB.

C. PHN TCH TI CHNH

PHN TCH TI CHNH CHI TIT

NM

2010

NM

2009

TNH THANH KHON

T S THANH TON NHANH 0.02 0.02

T S THANH TON HIN HNH 0.96 0.93

CU TRC VNTNG N/TNG TI SN 0.93 0.93

N NGN HAN/TNG TAI SN 0.86 0.84

HIU QU HOT NG

KINH DOANH

ROA 1.65 1.50ROE 32.02 31.51

LN HKD/DOANH THU 0.34 0.38LN SAU THU/DOANH THU 0.20 0.26

VNG QUAY TI SN C NH 13.32 10.67VNG QUAY TS NGN HN 0.09 0.08

VNG QUAY VN CH S HU 1.10 1.00LN GP/DOANH THU 0.40 0.42

N BY TI CHNHN BY HOT NG 1.66 1.48N BY TI CHNH 14.88 15.29

TNG N BY 16.53 16.77HIU QU S DNG TI

SN

HQ S DNG TNG TI SN 0.07 0.06

HIU QU S DNG VCSH 1.00 0.92

HIU QU S DNG VNTNG THU/TNG VN 0.01 0.01TNG N/TNG VN 0.93 0.93

2. CNG TY C PHN SA VIT NAM VINAMILK:

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16/25

A. PHN TCH 4P:

1. Chinh sach san phm:

Vinamilk l nh sn xut sa hng u ti Vit Nam,

danh mc sn phm ca Vinamilk bao gm: sn phm

ch lc l sa nc v sa bt; sn phm c gi tr

cng thm nh sa c, yoghurt n v yoghurt ung,

kem v pho mt. Thng hiu Vinamilk c bnh

chn l mt trong nhm 100 thng hiu mnh nht do

B Cng Thng bnh chn nm 2006, nm trong

nhm Top 10 Hng Vit Nam cht lng cao t nm 1995 n nm 2008.

2. Chnh sch v gi: Gi c coi l yu t cnh tranh quan trng trong vic thu

ht khch hng ca mi doanh nghip. S hnh thnh v vn ng ca gi sa chu s

tc ng ca nhiu nhn t, nn khi a ra nhng quyt nh v gi, i hi Vinamilk

phi xem xt, cn nhc, gii quyt nhiu vn nh: cc nhn t nh hng ti gi sa,

cc chnh sch thng dng, thng tin v gi c cc loi sa c trn th trng v vic

iu chnh gi

3. Chnh sch phn phi:

Mng li phn phi tri u khp ton quc vi 5.000 i l v 140.000 nghn imbn l, cng nh ti cc knh phn phi trc tip khc nh trng hc, bnh vin, siu

th h tr mng li phn phi ca mnh, VNM m 14 phng trng by sn

phm ti cc thnh ph ln nh H Ni, Nng, TP H Ch Minh v Cn Th. Li th

ca Vinamilk thng qua h thng cc nh my sa c u t tri di nhiu a

phng trong c nc. Ngoi ra Cng ty cn c cc nh phn phi chnh thc ti Hoa

K, chu u, c, Thi Lan, Campuchia

4. Chnh sch xc tin hn hp:

- Qung co: Hiu c tm quan trng ca Qung co trong chin lc xc tin

hn hp ca mnh Vinamilk lun ch trng, cao v sng to khng ngng v t

c nhng thnh cng khng nh trong vic nng cao doanh thu bn hng ca mnh.

- Quan h cng chng: Tip ni truyn thng hot ng v li ch cng ng,

Vinamilk dnh hn 17 t ng cho cc hot ng t thin ca mnh. Ngoi ra

Vinanmilk nhn phng dng sut i 20 b m Vit Nam Anh Hng hai tnh BnTre v Qung Nam.

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17/25

B. C CU C NG:

Tnh n ngy 31/12/2010 c ngchim t l ln nht l c ng Nhnc chim 47,36% vi 166,992,000

c phn, cc c ng nc ngoi c sc phn 162,413,175 chim 45,77%,cc c ng trong nc chim t lthp 6.87% vi 23,666,945 c phn.

C. PHN TCH TI CHNH:

PHN TCH TI CHNH CHI TIT

NM

2010

NM

2009

TNH THANH KHONT S THANH TON NHANH 1.35 2.17

T S THANH TON HIN HNH2.24 2.92

CU TRC VNTNG N/TNG TI SN 0.26 0.24

N NGN HAN/TNG TAI SN 0.25 0.20HIU QU HOT NG KINH

DOANH

ROA 0.34 0.28ROE 0.45 0.37

LN HKD/DOANH THU 0.23 0.24LN SAU THU/DOANH THU 0.23 0.22

LI NHUN GP/DOANH THU 0.33 0.37

VNG QUAY TSC 5.29 4.75VNG QUAY TS NGN HN 2.86 2.57VNG QUAY VCSH 2.18 1.90

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18/25

VNG QUAY HNG TN KHO 8.61 6.88

N BY TI CHNH N BY HOT NG 1.01 1.09N BY TI CHNH 1.35 1.31

TNG N BY 2.36 2.40

HIU QU S DNG TI SN HQ S DNG TNG TI SN 1.46 1.25HIU QU S DNG VCSH 1.98 1.64

HIU QU S DNG VN TNG THU/TNG VN 0.04 0.05

3. CNG TY C PHN I LY LIN HIP VN CHUYN (GMD):

A. PHN TCH 4P:

a. Product (Sn phm): Gemadept l nh cung cp dch v logistics hng u

trong nc vi cc hot ng chnh: Khai thc cng v Logistics, vn ti hng ha, qunl Tu, i l hng hi, bt ng sn, u t ti chnh. Trong hot ng vn ti bin

v kinh doanh cng chim phn ln doanh thu v li nhun.

b. Price (Gi): Tui tu trung bnh ca i tu ca GMD l 15 nm. Do s hu i

tu tr nn GMD rt c li th v mt chi ph bo dng tu. Nh kt hp c

kinh doanh vn hnh cng v vn ti bin nn GMD cung cp dch v cho khch

hng khp kn t ca n ca cho nn tit kim chi ph hot ng. Gip doanh

nghi p co li th gi c dch v cnh tranh.b. Place (Knh phn phi): Gemadept ang pht trin thnh mt tp on a

ngnh ngh. Vi qui m 24 cng ty con, cng ty lin kt, tr s chnh ti thnh

ph H Ch Minh, mng li tri rng ti cc cng chnh, thnh ph ln ca Vit

nam: TP. H Ch Minh, Bnh Dng, Vng Tu, Hi Phng, Qung Ngi.. v 7

quc gia trong khu vc: Malaysia, Singapore, Campuchia.. .Gemadept ang ngy

cng khng nh v tr mt trong nhng cng ty hng u ngnh hng hi Vit

nam.

c. Promotion (Xc tin thng mi):

- Quan h cng chng: Khng ch n thun ch trng n hot ng SXKD, t p

on Gemedept lun thc thc hin trch nhim ca mnh i vi cng ng x hi

c bit cho s nghi p gio dc v cc chng trnh gy qu gip ngi ngheo, cc

em nh c hon cnh kh khn, trao tng nh tnh ngha, ng h Hi ngi cao tui

- Qung b thng hiu trn cc phng tin thng tin i chng: Tivi, internet,

Trang: 18


19/25

i bo, hay tham gia cc hi ch xc tin thng mi vi cc nc: Campuchia,

Singapore,

B. HI NG C NG:

Cc c ng thuc s hu nh nc chim

2.1%, trong khi c ng s hu khc chim n 69,11% ln nht, c ng s hunc ngoi chim 28,77%

Trang: 19


20/25

C. PHN TCH TI CHNH:

D. VE NG BIN HIU QU V RAQUYT INH U T

Trang: 20

PHN TCH TICHNH CHI TIT

NM 2009 NM 2010

TNH THANHKHON

T S THANH TON NHANH 1.27 2.13T S THANH TON HiN HNH 1.34 2.19T S THANH TON TIN MT 0.28 0.53

CU TRC VNTNG N/TNG TAI SN 0.41 0.36

N NGN HAN/TNG TAI SN 0.18 0.16

HIU QU HOTNG KINH DOANH

ROA 8.29 3.94ROE 14.84 6.76

LN HOT NG KD/DOANH THU 0.19 0.06LI NHUN SAU THU/DOANH

THU0.19 0.10

LI NHUN GP/DOANH THU 0.14 0.18VNG QUAY TI SN C NH 1.03 1.13

VNG QUAY TI SN NGN HN1.73 1.29

VNG QUAY VN CH S HU 0.79 0.67

N BY TICHNH

N BY HOT NG 1.01 0.54N BY TI CHNH 1.82 1.64

TNG N BY 2.84 2.19

HIU QU S DNGTI SN

HIU QU S DNG TNG TISN

0.39 0.32

HIU QU S DNG VCSH 0.72 0.54HIU QU S DNG

VNTNG THU/TNG VN 0.95 0.89TNG N/TNG VN


21/25

Cu 2: Giai on t thng 01/07/2009 30/06/2010:

a. Tnh E(R ) v :

Chng khon E(Ri) 2

VNM 6.15% 1.43% 11.97%GMD 2.75% 2.55% 15.97%

VCB 1.49% 0.78% 8.85%

b.Tnh Cov v :

Ma trn hip phng sai:

VNM GMD VCB

VNM 1.43% 1.50% 0.18%GMD 1.50% 2.55% 0.16%

VCB 0.18% 0.16% 0.78%Ma trn h s tng quan:

VNM GMD VCB

VNM 1.00 0.78 0.17

GMD 0.78 1.00 0.12

VCB 0.17 0.12 1.00

c. ng phng sai b nht v ng bin hiu qu:

00.010.020.03

0.040.050.060.07

0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14

Duong bien phuong sai be nhat

E(rp)

>> v ng phng sai b nht v ng bin hiu qu ta tin hnh 2 bc

nh sau:

Bc 1: Tm kim,tp hp cc danh mc u t c mt c im duy nht lri ro thp nht ( min).

Trang: 21


22/25

Bc 2: Trn c s bc 1, tm kim, tp hp danh mc c 2 c im:

+ ng vi 1 mc li tc cho trc, ri ro ca danh mc ny l ti thiu.

+ ng vi 1 mc ri ro cho trc, li tc ca danh mc ny l ti a => dng

cng c solver trong Excel.

* Cch tin hnh bc 1:

>> Vo Data -> Solver xut hin bng solver parameters,ta in cc thng tin d

liu vo,trong :

- Set Target Cell: chn lch chun ca DMT

- Equal To: chn min

- By Changing Cells: chn chui t trng Wi

- Subject to the Constraints: nhp vo 3 iu kin:

+ Tng ca cc t trng phi bng 1 hoc bng 100%

+ Chui t trng phi >= 0

+ T sut li tc k vng ca danh mc = counter

>> Copy lch chun c cp li tc ri r

>> Bi en chui tng cp ri ro li tc vo insert => chart => scatter ta c

ng phng sai b nht.

* Cch tin hnh bc 2:- Trn c s bc 1, tm danh mc c ri ro thp nht trong tng th.

- Bt u t im c ri ro thp nht trong tng th hng ln pha trn theo chiu

li tc tng dn s hnh thnh nn 1 tp hp cc danh mc u t c 2 c im:

+ ng vi mt mc li tc cho trc th ri ro ca n l thp nht v ngc l li,

ng vi mt mc ri ro cho trc tc ca n l cao nht.

>> Tp hp nhng danh mc ny to nn ng bin hiu qu.

Cu 3: Giai on t thng 01/07/2010 30/06/2011:

a.Tnh E(R ) v :

Chng khon E(Ri) 2

VNM 1.61% 0.30% 5.51%

GMD -5.50% 1.33% 11.52%

VCB 3.06% 0.29% 5.41%

b. Tnh Cov v :

Trang: 22


23/25

Ma trn hip phng sai:

VNM GMD VCB

VNM 0.003035354 0.003760357 0.000349642

GMD 0.003760357 0.013265317 0.001001024

VCB 0.000349642 0.001001024 0.002924355

Ma trn h s tng quan:

VNM GMD VCB

VNM 1 0.592605308 0.117355593

GMD 0.592605308 1 0.160720308

VCB 0.117355593 0.160720308 1

c.ng phng sai b nht v ng bin hiu qu:

-0.06

-0.04

-0.02

0

0.02

0.04

0 0.05 0.1 0.15

Series1

Duong bien phuong sai be nhatE(rp)

=> Cch v ging nh cu 2.

Cu 4. Trong 2 giai on trn theo nhm em nn u t vo giai on 1 (7/2009 6/2010) v:

Giai on E(rp) CV7/2009 6/2010 3.27% 9.14% 2.8

7/2010 6/2011 0.06% 5.42% 90.33>> H s Bin thin CV giai on (1) nh hn giai on (2) >> chn giai on

(2).

Cu 5: u t vo giai on (1) 7/2009 6/2010

* Gi s Rf = 14%/nm Rf = 1.17%/ thng.

* Gi s vn b ra: 100 triu.

+ Cho ng bin hiu qu tip tuyn vi ng CAL, tip im thu c chnhl danh mc m ti gi tr hu dng t gi tr ln nht.

Trang: 23


24/25

+ tm tip im ta dng phng php cc i ha h s sharp trong slover.

+ H s Sharp = (E(Rp) Rf)/ p = (3.27%-1.17%)/9.14% = 0.2298

Ta c danh mc u t C bao gm danh mc P gm 3 c phiu VNM, GMD ,VCB v danh mc F gm c tri phiu Chnh ph, tn phiu Kho bc.

E(rc) 0.0614913

2 0.0143265

0.1196934

Sharp 0.4162685

A 3

U 0.0400015

Y* 1.1592631

Rf 0.0116667

0.082346818,0.0404

E(rp)

R(f)=14%

Cu 6: Tnh T cng thc = Cov(Ri,RM) / 2M

(VNM,VNINDEX) 1.35

(GMD,VNINDEX) 1.69(VCB,VNINDEX) 0.23

* (GMD,VNINDEX) = 1.69. Ngha l: Trong giai on 06/2009 07/2010 li tc cac phiu GMD nhy cm hn so vi trung bnh chung ca sn (chi ri ro h thngnhiu hn) => Khi mua c phiu GMD, nh u t s c thng phn b ri ro nhiuhn l 0.69

* (VCB,VNINDEX) = 0.23. Ngha l: Trong giai on 06/2009 07/2010 li tc ca

c phiu c tc ca VCB t nhy cm hn so vi trung bnh chung ca sn (chi ri roh thng t hn => Khi mua c phiu GMD, th trng s ly bt i 0.77.

Trang: 24

ng bin hiu qu th 2

Ta c: y = 115.93%

1-y = - 15.93%

=> u t ht 100 triu vo DM(P)trong : u t 100 triu vo c phiuVNM (V t trng u t vo VNM l100%).

* (VNM,VNINDEX) = 1.35 Ngha l: Trong giaion 06/2009 07/2010, li tc ca c phiu VNMnhy cm hn so vi trung bnh chung ca sn (chi riro h thng nhiu hn) => Khi mua c phiu VNM, nhu t s c thng phn b ri ro nhiu hn l 0.35


25/25

* Chng minh danh mc P gm 3 c phiu VNM, GMD v VCB tt hndanh mc ch gm danh mc ch s Vnindex

E (R ) CV

Danh mc P 3.27% 9.14% 2.795107

VN-INDEX 1.38% 7.73% 5.601449

* Qua bng s liu trn ta thy:

- Danh mc P c t sut li tc cao hn danh mc VN-INDEX.

- Ri ro ca danh mc P cao hn danh mc VN-INDEX.

- H s Bin thin CV (CV = / E (R)) ca danh mc P nh hn CV ca

danh mc VN-INDEX.

>> Chn danh mc P

Cu 7: * Mc ph phi tr: F = % Ph * Gi tr giao dch

K t ngy 1/5/2011, B Ti Chnh va ban hnh thng t 38/2011/TT-BTC theo, ph mi gii mua, bn chng khon (p dng cho c chng khon ng k giao dchti UPCOM) i vi c phiu (CP) v chng ch qu m cc CTCK thu t 0,15% n0,5% gi tr giao dch, vi tri phiu l 0,02% n 0,1% gi tr giao dch.

DANH MC TI LIU THAM KHO:

http://www.scribd.com/doc/38199888/Marketing-Dich-Vu-the-the-Atm-Cua-Acb

http://www.ocb.com.vn/15nam/ocb-trong-toi-id

bTJhMGljdnZuem9jYjcwb2NiMTZA.html

http://www.aascs.com.vn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=111:cac-

ch-s-v-mo-c-bn-9-thang-u-nm-2011&catid=37:bn-tin-tai-chinh&Itemid=100

http://www.quanlynhansu.info/2011/02/pestle-analysis.html

http://108x.org/thong-tin-kinh-te-tong-hop/trong-nuoc/466-dien-bien-va-nguyen-nhan-

lam-phat

http://www.bsc.com.vn/Reports/8313/bao-cao-cap-nhat-co-phieu-trien-vong-2011.aspx
http://www.scribd.com/doc/38199888/Marketing-Dich-Vu-the-the-Atm-Cua-Acbhttp://www.ocb.com.vn/15nam/ocb-trong-toi-idhttp://www.aascs.com.vn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=111:cac-ch-s-v-mo-c-bn-9-thang-u-nm-2011&catid=37:bn-tin-tai-chinh&Itemid=100http://www.aascs.com.vn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=111:cac-ch-s-v-mo-c-bn-9-thang-u-nm-2011&catid=37:bn-tin-tai-chinh&Itemid=100http://www.quanlynhansu.info/2011/02/pestle-analysis.htmlhttp://108x.org/thong-tin-kinh-te-tong-hop/trong-nuoc/466-dien-bien-va-nguyen-nhan-lam-phathttp://108x.org/thong-tin-kinh-te-tong-hop/trong-nuoc/466-dien-bien-va-nguyen-nhan-lam-phathttp://www.bsc.com.vn/Reports/8313/bao-cao-cap-nhat-co-phieu-trien-vong-2011.aspxhttp://www.scribd.com/doc/38199888/Marketing-Dich-Vu-the-the-Atm-Cua-Acbhttp://www.ocb.com.vn/15nam/ocb-trong-toi-idhttp://www.aascs.com.vn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=111:cac-ch-s-v-mo-c-bn-9-thang-u-nm-2011&catid=37:bn-tin-tai-chinh&Itemid=100http://www.aascs.com.vn/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=111:cac-ch-s-v-mo-c-bn-9-thang-u-nm-2011&catid=37:bn-tin-tai-chinh&Itemid=100http://www.quanlynhansu.info/2011/02/pestle-analysis.htmlhttp://108x.org/thong-tin-kinh-te-tong-hop/trong-nuoc/466-dien-bien-va-nguyen-nhan-lam-phathttp://108x.org/thong-tin-kinh-te-tong-hop/trong-nuoc/466-dien-bien-va-nguyen-nhan-lam-phathttp://www.bsc.com.vn/Reports/8313/bao-cao-cap-nhat-co-phieu-trien-vong-2011.aspx

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