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© Dr. Otto C C. Lin 2014
軟實力與創新競爭力
西安交通大學-香港科技大聯合 可持續發展學院
西安交通大學 公共政策與管理學院
Prof. Otto C C Lin
林垂宙教授
2014. 11. 21
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
大 綱
1、老子:有無相對與有無相生
2、孔子:軟實力與硬實力重要性的比較
3、認識科技產品的軟硬實力
4、科技產業創新趨勢:以電腦業為例
5、軟實力與競爭力
6、軟實力與企業的可持續性經營
Dimensions of American Attractiveness
• Admire US for science/tech advances
• Like American music, movies, TV
• Like Americas ideas about democracy
• Like American way of doing business
• Good that American ideas/customs spread
Source: Joseph S. Nyes, Jr, “Soft Power: The
Means to Success in World Politics,” 2004
78 %
58 %
52 %
46 %
32 %
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
Soft Power (Ref: Joseph S Nye, Jr.)
Hard Power: Ability to influence others’ behavior from more direct means
-Military action
-Economic incentives
Soft Power: Ability to influence others’ behavior from attractions in
- Systems
- Science and technology
- Culture
- Policies
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
Soft Power Behavior:
Examples
* Admire 讚賞
* Learn 學習
* Imitate 模仿
* Purchase 購買
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
老子 的 “自 然 相對論” The “Natural” Relativity of Lao-tze
有 無
Have Have not Full Empty
Solid Void
Real Virtual
Hard Soft
Hard Power Soft Power
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
老子: 有無與利用
故:
有 之以為 利
The“Have”defines the use,
無 之以為 用
The“Have not”provides the usefulness.
25
The vertical computer industry, circa 1980
The transformation of the computer industry
FROM Only the paranoid Survive, by Andrew S. Grove, © 1996 by Andrew S. Grove
Used by permission of Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc.
Source : Lee, Miller, Hancock and Rowen, “The Silicon Valley Edge”, 2000
IBM DEC Sperry Univac
Wang
Sales and
distribution
Application
Software
Operating
Systems
Computer
Chips
26
Retail
Stores
Superstores
Dealers
Mail Order
Word
Word Perfect
Etc.
DOS and Windows
OS/2
Mac
UNIX
Compaq
Dell
Packard
Bell
Hewlett-
Packard
IBM
Etc.
Intel Architecture
Motorola
RISCs
The transformation of the computer industry
FROM Only the paranoid Survive, by Andrew S. Grove, © 1996 by Andrew S. Grove
Used by permission of Doubleday, a division of Random House, Inc.
Source : Lee, Miller, Hancock and Rowen, “The Silicon Valley Edge”, 2000
The horizontal computer industry, circa 1995
Sales and
distribution
Application
Software
Operating
Systems
computer
chips
© Dr. Otto C C Lin 2008
27
Dell NB PC
Inspiron 600M ODM: Taiwan
Austin,TX
Micro-
processor
Graphic Card
Memory
Cooling Fan
Mother Board
DVD/CD Dr
Removable M
Power ADPT
LCD Display
Wireless Card
Moderm
Battery
Hard Disk Dr
Carrying Bag
Power Cord
Key Board
Intel-Philipines
Intel-Costa Rica
Intel-Malaysia
Intel-China
Samsung-Sha/Korea
Quanta-Sha/Taiwan
Compal/taiwan
Wistron/Taiwan
Samsung-Korea
Nanya-Taiwan
Infineon-Germany
Elpida-Japan Samsung-Korea
LG-Philips-Korea
Toshiba-Japan
Sharp-Japan
ChiMei-Taiwan
Hannstar-Taiwan
AU Optronics-
Taiwan
Austek-XZ/Taiwan
Liteon-GZ/Taiwan
Foxconn-SZ/
Taiwan
Seagate-Sg/USA
Hitachi-Thai/Japan
Fujitsu-Thai/Japan
Toshiba-Php/Japan
Delta-Thai/Taiwan
Liteon-Sha/Taiwan
Samsung-SZ/Korea
Mobility-Sha/USA
Alps-Tianjin/Japan
Sunrex-SZ/Taiwan
Darfon-XZ/Taiwan
Source:
Thomas L Friedman,
“World is Flat”, 2003
The Dell NB Computer
Family-2000
Penang, Malaysia
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
硬科技與軟科技的結合(例)
• Virtual Reality 虛擬現實
• Embedded System 崁入式系統
• Failure Analysis 失誤分析
• System Optimization 系統優化
• Quality Management 品質管理
• Logistics Management 物流管理
• Behavioral Science 行為科學
• Business Model 經營模式
• Cloud Computing 雲端計算
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
Trust, Ethics and Power
信
- 信任 (Trust)
- 信用 (Creditability)
- 信賴 (Dependability)
- 信守 (Responsibility)
- 信仰 (Faith)
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
信與國防力: 孫子兵法 (始計篇)
兵者,國之大事:
死生之地,存亡之道,不可不察也。
故經之以五事,校之以計,以索其情。
一曰道,二曰天,三曰地,四曰將,五曰法。
36
Energy & Environment
Product Strategy & Planning
VALUE as perceived by market
Materials Supply & Logistics Mgmt
Research & Development
Manufacture
Marketing & Distribution
Sales & Customer Services
Accounting & Financial Planning
Hu
man
Re
sou
rce
s
Man
age
me
nt
Soft Power Behind a Successful Business (Source: O.C.C. Lin, 2009)
Price Cost
科技產品競爭力
• 有利基優勢 (Niche advantage)
• 最新的硬件 (State-of-art hardware)
• 最新的軟件 (State-of-art software)
• 簡捷的製造程序 (Simplified processes)
• 可更優化的價值(Up-gradable values)
- 多元性(versatility)
- 放大性(scalability)
• 送貨與服務 (Delivery and services)
© Dr. Otto C C Lin- 2014
Competitiveness: Symbiosis of Have and Have not
有無共生
The Have (有):
- Real (實體)
- Hardware (硬件)
- Vehicle (載具)
- Platform (平台)
- Hard Power (硬實力)
The Have Not (無):
- Virtual (空虛)
- Software (軟件) - Inventiveness (創意)
- Functions (功能 )
- Soft Power (軟實力)
Competi-
tiveness
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
Emerging Everywhere Computing (Source: P. K. K. Sun, ITRI, 2014)
40 11
Each New Computing Cycle = 10x > Installed Base than Previous Cycle
Source: Morgan Stanley Mobile Internet Report (12/09)
Image Source: Computersciencelab.com, Wikipedia, IBM, Apple, Google, NTT docomo, Google, Jawbone, Pebble.
Technology Cycles Have Tended to Last Ten Years
Technology Cycles – Still Early Cycle on Smartphones + Tablets,
Now Wearables Coming on Strong, Faster than Typical 10-Year Cycle
Mainframe
Computing
1960s
Personal
Computing
1980s
Desktop Internet
Computing
1990s
Mobile Internet
Computing
2000s
Mini
Computing
1970s
Wearable /
Everywhere
Computing
2014+
Others?
49
軟實力為主導的創新
Soft Power Oriented Innovation
• 設計與時尚 (Fashion/Design)
• 提供新知識 (Knowledge Provider)
• 電子商貿 (E-Commerce)
• 休閑 (Entertainment)
• 社群網絡 (Social Network)
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
雲端計算創新: 舉例
Dropbox
Youtube Google Apps
Interaction
Service Simple Multiple
simple
Complex
Computing Costs Declining 33% Annually (1990 –2013)
(Source: P. K. K. Sun, ITRI, 2014)
43
70
$527
$0.05
$0.01
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ p
er
1 M
M t
ran
sis
tors
Global Compute Cost Trends
Decreasing cost / performance curve enables
computational power @ core of digital infrastructure...
Note: Y-axis on graph is logarithmic scale. Source: John Hagel, Deloitte, 5/14.
Compute Costs Declining = 33% Annually, 1990-2013...
Storage Costs Declining 38% Annually (1992 – 2013) (Source: Paul K. K. Sun, ITRI, 2014)
44
71
Decreasing cost / performance of digital storage enables
creation of more / richer digital information...
$569
$0.02
$0.01
$0.10
$1.00
$10.00
$100.00
$1,000.00
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012
$ p
er
Gig
ab
yte
Global Storage Cost Trends
Note: Y-axis on graph is logarithmic scale. Source: John Hagel, Deloitte, 5/14.
...Storage Costs Declining = 38% Annually, 1992-2013...
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2009
Founded 1908,
Produced cars in 37 countries, 10 brands.
For 77 years (1930-2007), It was world’s
Number 1 automaker
Reorganized in 2009 under Chapter 11,
Returned to profitability in 2011.
GM regained the Number 1 world carmaker
position in 2011 with >9 Million
units sold worldwide.
General Motors Recall-2014
Mary Barra, was elected CEO in the end
of 2013. She was formerly EVP-Global
Product Dev-Purchasing-Supply Chain.
GM had 3 changes of CEO &CFO in 2
years.
The faulty ignition switch system started
in 1997, then various ignition problems
have been reported. About 29 M cars
were recalled by the end of June, 2014.
GM was fined $ 35 Millions by NHTSA;
expected to cost more than $2 B to fix
safety related issues. With 19 deaths
and 79 lawsuits pending, estimated
losses could reach over $10 Billions.
Hewlett- Packard:
A Landmark Hardware Company in Electronics
The Company, started up in 1939, by Bill Hewlett and Dave Packard, both EE students of Stanford University, in a rented garage in Silicon Valley. It has become a leader in technology and corporate culture, inspiring innovators and entrepreneurs world-wide.
It was a pioneering anchor in the Stanford Science Park. First a
developer of audio oscillators, gradually expanded to microwave devices, medical and scientific instruments, home and personal computers, LEDs and lasers, programmable calculators, etc. It started its PC in 1980 followed by servers, workstations, networking devices, laser jet printing and related imaging products. It has engaged actively in mergers and acquisitions around the turn of the year 2000 to broaden company scope. It is now the second largest PC manufactures world-wide.
HP is well known for its corporate values and practices; many have
become standards in the US technology business. The two founders have taken leadership in the operation of the
company for nearly 50 years.
Hewlett- Packard 公司的價值觀
1. 利潤 Profit: To achieve growth and provide resources to
achieve corporate objectives 2. 顧客 Customers : To gain their respect and loyalty through
values of products/services 3. 領域 Fields of Interest : To enter a field with ideas/skills that
can make needed and profitable contribution 4. 成長 Growth : To limit by profits and ability in developing new
products for customer needs 5. 人員 Our People : To share company’s success, provide job
security, recognize achievement, and insure personal satisfaction
6. 管理 Management : To foster initiative and creativity by
allowing freedom of action in attaining well defined objectives 7. 社會責任 Citizenship : To honor our obligation to society to
each nation and community we operate
Industrial Trend: Profitability of Technology
Giants (2013)
Company Type Revenue, USBillion Gross Margin
VMWare Software 5.2 86.0 %
Oracle Software 37.2 80.9 %
Microsoft Software 77.8 74.0 %
Google Software 59.8 56.8 %
EMC Hard/Soft 23.2 62.3 %
Cisco Hard/Soft 48.6 60.6 %
Intel Hard/Soft 52.7 59.8 %
IBM Hard/Soft 99.8 48.6 %
H-P Hardware 112.3 23.1 %
Source: Wall Street Journal, 2014-03-07
Growth Trends of Personal Computers + 52%, 2013
57 7
Global PC (Desktop / Notebook) and Tablet Shipments by Quarter
Q1:95 – Q4:13
0
20
40
60
80
Q1:95 Q1:97 Q1:99 Q1:01 Q1:03 Q1:05 Q1:07 Q1:09 Q1:11 Q1:13
Glo
ba
l U
nit
s S
hip
pe
d (
MM
s)
Desktop PCs Notebook PCs Tablets
Tablet Units = Growing Faster Than PCs Ever Did... +52%, 2013
Source: Morgan Stanley Research. Note: Notebook PCs include Netbooks.
+ 52%
Soft Power: Management of Change
軟實力: 危機處理的基礎
• In Good Time
- Humility
- Preparedness
• In Bad Time
- Assertive
- Vigilant
• 順 境
-居安思危、信義立業
-品質至善、未雨綢繆
• 逆 境
- 警惕反省、守時待勢
- 求變求通、開創新機
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
A Sustainable Enterprise
Quality
Teamwork
Spirit
People
Glo
bali
zati
on
Innovation
Capacity
Business Ethics
Soft Power
結 語 (Concluding Remarks)
• 軟實力與硬實力特性是個人、企業、組織、國家的基本性質;
兩者相互補全而相互加強。
• 產品的硬實力特性界定了物體範疇 ; 軟實力特性發揮了使用價值。
科技產品的競爭優勢,多由軟實力特性彰顯。
• 科技產業的發展過程中,軟實力特性日益重要。
二十世紀後期電腦產業的演變,是一個重要實例。
* 規劃科技產品和產業的競爭力,焦點應在對顧客產生新的使用價值上。
• 能激發所有成員信任的能力是領導人及領導力最重要的因素。
• 技術產業的成功及可持續發展的因素包括: 信義立業的文化、優越的品質、個人的尊重、 建立團隊、堅軔的毅力、策略性的眼光、環境變化的管理等。
• 從國際化企業發展過程中的失誤學習: GM 的產品品質管理及顧客信賴 ,
HP 的策略形成及價值創造, 是重要的例子。
• 利用變化管理創造競爭力。其原則在軟實力--禍福相倚、居安思危;求變求通、開創新機。
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
© Dr. Otto C C Lin-2014
謝謝, 歡迎討論 !
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