YOUTH BULGES, VIOLENCE, AND DEVELOPMENT 

Professor Gunnar Heinsohn; Director, Raphael-Lemkin-Institute, University of Bremen2 April, 2008. LUX Nijmegen, Holland

“Here's to a bloody war. Many to go and few to come back!”

(A toast of officers hoping for advancement; from 18th/19th century England when the country was propelled by youth bulges as today are Gaza or Afghanistan.)

 

demographic capitulation

extreme demographic armament,

demographic disarmament,

demographic capitulation.

Examples ofDemographic Demographic

DemographicArmament Neutrality Capitulation (Data from 2006 [IDB; PRB]; maxima and minima in bold letters) Afghanistan Iraq Somalia Guinea Gaza USA Iceland NL*

Germany ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Boys 2,700,000 1,970,000 800,000 840,000 130,000 10.4 mill. 10,512 476,000 1.85 mill.

0-4 years

Change in % [+403%] [+351%] [+364%] [+420%] [+464%] [-8%] [-3,5%] [-30%] [-50%]+ ____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Men 670,000 562,000 220,000 200,000 28,000 11.3 mill. 10,895 679,000 3.7 mill.

40-44 years___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Male median age17.6 19.6 17.5 17.4 15.7 35.1 33.8 38.9 41.3

Total fertility 6.69 4.80 6.76 5.79 5.78 2.09 1.92 1.70 1.39

DEFINITION OF A YOUTH BULGE

30 to 40 % of nation’s males belong to the ”fighting age“ cohorts from 15 to 29 years (UK: 20%; US: 22%). The young men do not live in abject poverty but are permanently better fed and schooled.

A youth bulge is preceded by a children bulge defined by 33 % to 48 % of all males in the age bracket of 0 to 14 years (UK: 18%; US: 21%). The boys are sufficiently fed and schooled.

The member of a youth bulge:

(1) is agitated by common adolescent irritation and idealism that also afflicts an only son, (2) is demographically superfluous, i.e., cannot count inheriting a position or a business, (3) may be out of work or stuck in a mean job,(4) has no access to a legal sex life before a position can earn him enough to provide for a family.

Six typical exits: (1) Emigration (non-violent colonization) with high potential for terror if ambition is stalled in new country too.(2) Violent crime (met by the authorities with lower requirements for death penalty and/or extralegal execution).(3) Rebellion or putsch by young men with access to army equipment.(4) Civil war and/or revolution in which the young decimate each other as freedom fighters and law defenders.(5) Genocide at home to take over the positions of the slaughtered.(6) Conquest as precondition of violent colonization (frequently accompanied by genocide abroad).

The Father of the Youth Bulge Theory Gaston Bouthoul

Causes f the English revolution 1642 – 1651 Jack. A. Goldstone

A Shift from Religion to Youth Bulge Samuel Huntington

Adoption of Youth Bulge Theory by US Forces Patrick HughesJohn Gannon

First Prediction of a Youth Bulge Triggered Civil War: EL SALVADOR

Population Per Capita Income Total Fertility

1925 1.3 million 1940 1.6 million1960 2.5 million 1.427 $/capita 6.81 children/woman

1960-1972: Increase of per capita income by 27%. In 1965 [6.85 children/woman], 130.000 Salvadorean settlers invade Honduras. A minor war kills 2.000. Civil war starts in 1975.

1975 4.1 million WAR 1.760 $/capita 6.10 children/woman

1981-1992: Peak of battles with 70.000 dead. Transposed on the NL’s population (13,6 million against Salvador’s 4 million in 1975) nearly 240,000 Dutchmen would have been killed - 20.000 annually.

1993 5.6 million PEACE 3.700 $/capita 3.6 children/woman2006 6.8 million 4.700 $/capita 3.1 children/woman

2 million Salvadoreans in USANADA take pressure out of the kettle back home.

LESSONS OF EL SALVADOR 

As peace activists we may promise that the victory over hunger will also bring victory over war, and triumph for democracy.

 Youth bulge analysis, however, shows again and again that when hunger

ends and jobs remain scarce, the killing starts in earnest. 

Though hunger is a terrible fate it does not pose a military threat. For bread you beg. For a position you may shoot.

DEMOGRAPHIC DEFINITION OF ASYMMETRIC CONFLICT THAT IS OMITTED IN STRATEGY DEBATES

Fighting to the death is a well researched asymmetric threat. Yet, it is different from fighting to the death of superfluous

sons that the other side simply does not have

______________________________________________________________________________________Out of 1,000 men in fighting age (15-29) worldwide were raised in (figures rounded):

Europe/USA Islam Only Only Only Germany and(+ white col.) USAnada UK Habsburg territory

[1500 110 (Europe only)]1914 350 95 73 35 90**

2005 130* 270** 40* 8* 13*

2020 120* 290** 44* 5* 7*

_______________________________________________________________________________________* Only sons or children; in 2020, 25% immigrants of whom a majority will be Muslims.** Two thirds are second or further sons. Thus, Germany-Austria-Hungary’s share of fighting age males was, in 1914, not only two times higher than the US’s share will be in 2020. It was also composed differently. Therefore, the two Behemoths could sacrifice 2.5 million young men in WWI (1914-1918) and still carry on, during the 1920s, with paramilitary militias counting in the millions (born 1898 to 1916).

Most popular Theory: Is international terror caused by the creation of Israel?“Terrorism will not be defeated without peace […] between Israel and Palestine. Here it is that the poison is incubated.” (Tony BLAIR, 17 July 2003, to U.S. Congress.)Conflicts since 1950 with over 10,000 Fatalities. Nations with Muslim majorities in bold letters . 1 40,000,000 Red China, 1949-76 (outright killing, manmade famine, Gulag, Muslim Uighurs)2 10,000,000 Late Stalinism, 1950-53; Post-Stalinism, to 1987 (mostly Gulag), more than 100.000 Muslims in Chechnya3 4,000,000 Ethiopia, 1962-92: Communists, artificial hunger, genocides4 3,800,000 Zaire (Congo-Kinshasa): 1967-68; 1977-78; 1992-95; 1998-today5 2,800,000 Korean war, 1950-536 1,900,000 Sudan, 1955-72; 1983-2006 (civil wars, genocides)7 1,870,000 Cambodia: Khmer Rouge 1975-79; civil war 1978-918 1,800,000 Vietnam War, 1954-75 (more than 90% Vietnamese, Allies)9 1,800,000 Afghanistan: Soviet and internecine killings, Taliban 1980-200110 1,250,000 West Pakistan massacres in East Pakistan (Bangladesh 1971)11 1,100,000 Nigeria, 1966-79 (Biafra); 1993-today12 1,100,000 Mozambique, 1964-70 (30,000) + after retreat of Portugal 1976-9213 1,000,000 Iran-Iraq-War, 1980-8814 900,000 Rwanda genocide, 199415 875,000 Algeria: war with France 1954-62 (675,000); Islamists/Government 1991-2006 (200,000)16 850,000 Uganda, 1971-79; 1981-85; 1994-today17 650,000 Indonesia: Marxists 1965-66 (450,000); East Timor, Papua, Aceh etc, 1969-today (200,000)18 580,000 Angola: war against Portugal 1961-72 (80,000); after Portugal’s retreat (1972-2002)19 500,000 Brazil against its Indians, up to 199920 430,000 Vietnam, after the war ended in 1975 (own people; boat refugees)21 400,000 France in Indochina, 1945-5422 400,000 Burundi, 1959-today (Tutsi/Hutu)23 400,000 Somalia, 1991-today24 400,000 North Korea up to 2006 (own people)25 300,000 Kurds in Iraq, Iran, Turkey, 1980s-1990s26 300,000 Iraq, 1970-2003 (Saddam against minorities)27 240,000 Columbia, 1946-58; 1964-today28 200,000 Yugoslavia, Tito regime, 1944-8029 200,000 Guatemala, 1960-9630 190,000 Laos, 1975-9031 175,000 Serbia>Croatia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Kosovo, 1991-199932 150,000 Romania, 1949-99 (own people)33 150,000 Liberia, 1989-9734 140,000 Chechnya, 1994-today in independence war against Russia

35 150,000 Lebanon civil war, 1975-9036 140,000 Kuwait War, 1990-91 (Arabs from Iraq and Kuwait, Allies)37 130,000 Philippines: 1946-54 (10,000); 1972-today (Muslim Marxists, 120,000)38 130,000 Burma/Myanmar, 1948-today39 100,000 North Yemen, 1962-7040 100,000 Sierra Leone, 1991-today41 100,000 Albania, 1945-91 (own people)42 80,000 Iran, 1978-79 (revolution)43 75,000 Iraq, 2003-today (domestic)44 75,000 El Salvador, 1975-9245 70,000 Eritrea/Ethiopia, 1998-200046 68,000 Sri Lanka 1997-today 47 60,000 Zimbabwe, 1966-79; 1980-today48 60,000 Nicaragua, 1972-91 (Marxists/natives etc,)49 53,000 Arab wars against Israel, 1948-today (excluding the Israel-Palestine conflict; see 67)50 50,000 Communist North Vietnam, 1954-75 (own people)51 50,000 Tajikistan, 1992-96 (secularists against Islamists)52 50,000 Equatorial Guinea, 1969-7953 50,000 Peru, 1980-200054 50,000 Guinea, 1958-8455 40,000 Chad, 1982-9056 30,000 Bulgaria, 1948-89 (own people)57 30,000 Rhodesia, 1972-7958 30,000 Argentina, 1976-83 (own people)59 27,000 Hungary, 1948-89 (own people)60 26,000 Kashmir independence, 1989-today61 25,000 Jordan government vs. Palestinians, 1970-71 (Black September)62 22,000 Poland, 1948-89 (own people)63 20,000 Syria, 1982 (against Islamists in Hama)64 20,000 Chinese-Vietnamese war, 197965 18,000 Congo Republic, 1997-9966 19,000 Morocco: war against France, 1953-56 (3,000), Western Sahara, 1975-today (16,000)67 67 12,000 Israel-Palestinian conflict 1947-87 (5,000); 1987-91 (2,000); 2000-today (5,000: 80% Arabs, 20% Jews)68 10,000 South Yemen, 1986 (civil war)

Sources: Brzezinski, Z., Out of Control: Global Turmoil on the Eve of the Twenty-first Century , 1993. Courtois, S., ed., Le Livre Noir du Communism, 1997. Heinsohn, G., Lexikon der Völkermorde, 1999. Heinsohn, G., Söhne und Weltmacht, 2006, 8th ed. Rummel. R., Death by Government, 1994. Small, M., Singer, J.D., Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars 1816-1980 , 1982. White, M., Death Tolls for the Major Wars and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century [web] (2003).

Only 1 out of 300 Muslims killed in violent conflicts after 1950 died in the war against Israel

ISRAEL-PALESTINE-CONFLICT: 1,000 Men aged 40 to 44 yearsare succeeded by x boys aged 0 to 4 years (2006; IDB) 

Opponents Selected Caretaker Nations__________________________________________________________________________________________________

Gaza Israel (Jews) NL UK USA10,600 births/1,000 deaths. 1,900 b./1,000 d.; 1,229 b./1,000 d.; 1,057 b./1,000 d.; 1,715b./1,000 d.; Male median age 16 MA:31 MA:39 MA:39 MA: 35

__________________________________________________________________________________________________Boys 4,640 1,400 701 677 9770-4 (90% on inter- (only sons (only sons (only sons) national welfare) or only or only

children) children)__________________________________________________________________________________________________Men 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,00040-44 

AFGHANISTAN’S TALIBAN: A REBIRTH INDEED

Year Population (mill.) Total Fertility (children/Woman)________________________________________________________________________________________________

1950 8 7.40 [D: 2.25 for comparison] 1960            1960    10 7.70 [D: 2.30] 

1970      13 7.50 [D: 2.32] 1978: Communist coup. 32,000 members of the former elites are slaughtered. Millions flee. 1980            1980       15.2 7.40 [D: 1.52] 1990            1990       14.5 7.20 [D: 1.43] 1992: Communists defeated. 1.5 - 2 million killed between 1978 and 1992 + 5 million refugees. 1994: Students[“Taliban”] attack and take Kabul in September 1996. Taliban-Al Qaida-alliance in 1997. 2000            2000      24 6.90 [D: 1.34] 2001: Victory of US alliance against Taliban and their young warriors (15 years upwards) from 43 nations.Western payment of 37,000 new soldiers and policemen does not even scratch the pertinent youth bulge. As early as 2003, the Taliban reach 300% of the forces that fought Soviet Russia after 1979. 2007 32 6.64 [D: 1.38] 500,000 boys reach fighting age (15) every year. If 150,000 are lucky to find a job some 350,000 provide the annual pool for fresh Taliban faced with 35,000 only sons or only children of Western families.

Demographic Armament of NUCLEAR PAKISTAN: Real Concern behind US Missile Defence in Poland and Czech Republic?

Male cohorts 2007 (IDB)Afghan. Pakistan UK US AfPak UK/US

Total Fertility 6.6 3.7 1.7 2.1Inhabitants 32 mill. 165 mill. 61 mill. 302 mill. 197 mill. 363 mill._________________________________________________________________________________________________Boys 0-14 7.3 mill. 31.3 mill. 5.3 mill. 31.2 mill 38.6 mill. 36.5 mill.

17 % /Pak 99 %/Pak 95 % /AfPak73 %/Af 427 %/Af

_________________________________________________________________________________________________Warriors 15-29 4.4 mill. 24 mill. 6.1 mill. 32.5 mill. 29.6 mill. 38.6. mill_________________________________________________________________________________________________Men 30-44 2.6 mill. 13 mill. 6.8 mill. 31.2 mill. 15.5 mill. 38 mill.______________________________________________________________________ ______ _ Men 44-59 1.4 mill. 7.3 mill. 6.1 mill. 30.4 mill. 9.3 mill. 36.5 mill.

84 %/Pak 416 %/Pak 392 %/AfPak434 %/Af 2171 %/Af

IRAQ: The persistent absence of demographic intelligence

Baker-Hamilton-Report (12/2006, P: 61): “While the United States has been able to acquire good and sometimes superb tactical intelligence on al Qaeda in Iraq, our government still does not understand very well either the insurgency in Iraq or the role of the militias”. Demography is never mentioned.

Inhabitants Total Fertility IRAQ 20071960 7 million 7.19 children/woman

1961-65: Killing of some 60,000 Kurds going through own youth bulge. 1969: Saddam vice president.

1970 9.5 million 7.18 children/woman

1977: Deportation of 200,000 Shiites to Iran. 1978/79: Killing of 7,000 communists. 1979: Saddam sole ruler.

1980 13 million 6.34 children/woman

1980-1988: Loss of 350,000 men in war against Iran. 1987-2003: 1st civil war (250,000 Kurds and Shiites killed)

1990 18 million 6.15 children/woman

1991: Conquest of Kuwait. George Bush: “This will not stand!“ Desert Storm (100,000 Iraqis killed).

2000 23 million 5.25 children/woman

March-May 2003: Iraqi Freedom (victory over Saddam’s Army). Since May 2003 “occupation”. In reality, superfluous males man 2nd civil war because they are no longer employed or consumed in war or genocide.

2007 29 million 4.10 children/woman 6,000 births on 1,000 deaths. 3 million emigrants

Old holy books or Young angry men? DOES RELIGION MATTER?

  The young Muslims in these nations turned into Islamists for the same reason

Spain’s conquistadors – called secundones (second or further sons) in the 16th century – turned from Christians into Christianists. In both cases religions is hijacked

in order to advance secular ambitions.

WHAT IS WAITING IN SUDAN? Are the Genocides Driven by Climate Change Induced Hunger or by Youth Bulges Afflicting all Minorities? Year Population Children Per-capita pur-

(million) per woman chasing power

1945 9 [NL: 9.2 mill.] 1955 10 6.67

1955 to 1972: Ca 600.000Dinka, Naga and Nuba killed, some 700.000 exiled. 1965 13 6.67 1975 16 6.67 450 $ 1985 22 6.15 740 $

1983 (Darfur 1987) to 2006): Ca. 500.000 dead of all causes due to genocidal activities (including “liberation wars”) driven by youth bulges in all minorities.  1995 27 5.25 1370 $ 2005 41 [NL: 16.4 mill.] 4.72 2100 $ Median age: 18 [NL: 40] [NL: 1.7]

2020 56 ? ?

Africa’s SWITZERLAND:CÔTE D'IVOIRE’S enigmatic killings

Year Population Total Fertility PPP-$ (million) Children/woman per capita

1950 2.8

1960 3.8 7.11

1970 5.5 7.31 600 $

1980 8.5 7.41 1170 $

1990 12.5 6.90 1480 $

2000 15.8 5.30 1590 $

2002: Full blown “liberation war of North against South” or “religious war of Muslims against Christians”.

January 2003: cease fire. July 2003 6,000 UN plus 4,000 French troops bring “fin de la guerre”.

November 2004: new war, French flee, British close embassy: FAILED STATE, per capita income falls.

2005 17.5 Mill. 5.42 1300 $

39 Nations with a Minimum of 500.000 Inhabitants in 1950 which will Increase by factors 9 to 26 up to 2050 Nation Population (million) | Potential for civil war, genocide

1950 2050 | war etc. since 1950 (crosses | indicate intensity)

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Factor 9: Pakistan 39 > 350 | +++Nigeria 30 > 280 | +++Kenya 6 > 55 | +Ghana 4.8 > 41 | +, 50% of educated in exileGuatemala 3 > 27 | +++Senegal 2.5 > 23 | death toll: 1000sBurundi 2.4 > 21 | +++Ruanda 2.1 > 19 | +++Benin 2 > 18 | —, highest emigration/AfricaHonduras 1.4 > 13 | 1000s, emigration USAnadaParaguay 1.5 > 13 | 1000s, emigration USAnadaTogo 1.3 > 12 | —, AIDS highEritrea 1.1 > 10 | +++____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Factor 10: Ethiopia 19 > 190 | +++ Tanzania 7.8 > 83 | 1000sIraq 5.2 > 54 | +++Syria 3.5 > 36 | ++Chad 2.7 > 28 | ++Nicaragua 1.1 > 11 | +++Libya 1 > 10 | +, calming oil revenues_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Factors 11:Afghanistan 8 > 97 | +++ +12Burkina Faso 4 > 47 | —, extreme AIDS-rate Madagascar 4.2 > 47 | + Mali 3.5 > 42 | + Malawi 2.9 > 31 | + Ivory Coast 2.8 > 32 | ++ Sambia 2.4 > 29 | 1000s Palestine 1 > 12 | +__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Factors 13: Congo, Dem.R. 12 > 204 | +++ to 18 Angola 4 > 53 | +++Somalia 2.3 > 41 | +++ Liberia 0.8 > 14 | +++ Congo, Rep 0.8 > 11 | ++___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________Factor 19:Yemen 4.3 > 102 | ++ to 26 Uganda 5.2 > 102 | +++ Saudi-Arabia 3.2 > 60 | +, calming oil revenues Niger 2.5 > 52 | +, 100s Jordan 0.5 > 11.8 | ++ Kuwait 0.15 > 4 | —, calming oil revenues  

Youth bulge allies against youth bulge enemies:Al Qaeda’s demographic miscalculation of the stamina of Islamist youth-bulge Somalis facing youth-bulge Ethiopians

 Ayman al-Zawahiri, bin Laden's top lieutenant on 5 January, 2007:

 “Crusader invading Ethiopian forces are violating the Islamic land of dear Somalia. / America is weaker than before as the mujahidin dealt a fatal blow to it in Afghanistan

and Iraq. Hence, it sent its slaves to you. / Therefore, do not be affected by the first shock, it is just worthless propaganda. / The real battle will begin by launching your campaigns

against the Ethiopian forces. / The faithful groups / will devour the Crusader invading Ethiopian Army.”

Somalia Eritrea Ethiopia USA UK[Population 2022 14 mill. 7 mill. 103 mill. 341 mill. 63 mill.]Population 2007 9.1 million 4.9 mill. 77 mill. 302 mill. 61 mill.Population 1957 2 million 1.2 mill. 20 mill. 171 mill. 52 mill.Male Median Age 17 years 18 years 18 years 36 years 39 yearsTotal fertility 2007 6.7 child./wom. 5 c/w 5.1 c/w 2.1 c/w 1.7 c/w_______________________________________________________________________________________________X boys aged 0-4 succeed 4,080 4,290 3,930 977 6741,000 men aged 40-44 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000______________________________________________________________________________________________Fighting age males (15-29) 1.15 mill. 0.65 mill. 10 mill. 33 mill. 6 mill.Reserves to 2022 (0-14) 2 mill. 1.1 mill. 17 mill. 31 mill. 5.4 mill.

Demographic Disarmament and the End of Terror: Algeria and Tunisia.Demography of Afghanistan (Af), Algeria (Al), Tunisia (T) United Kingdom [UK] in brackets

Population (million) Children in a woman’s lifetime

1950 8 (Af) 8.5(Al) 3.5 (T) [UK:50] 7.40 (Af) 7.30 (Al) 6.95 (T) [UK2.15]1970 13 (Af) 14 (Al) 5.1 (T) [UK:55] 7.50 (Af) 7.38 (Al) 7.04 (T) [UK2.55]1990 15 (Af) 25 (Al) 8.2 (T) [UK:58] 7.20 (Af) 5.23 (Al) 4.12 (T) [UK1.81]2006 31 (Af) 33 (Al) 10.2 (T)[UK:60] 6.69 (Af) 1.89 (Al) 1.74 (T) [UK1.66] 6.8 (Af) 4.8 (Al) 1.3 (T) [UK: 5.5] ( boys under 15)

2020 56 (Af) 38 (Al) 11,5 (T)[UK:63] 6.0 (Af) 1.8 (Al) 1.7 (T) [UK1.60]2050 82 (Af) 44 (Al) 12,5 (T)[UK:64]

Tunisia’s Islamists born 1950-1970 (7 children per woman) are more occupied with emigration than terror (centered 1972 to 1995) when total fertility is down to 3. Today, a Tunisian woman in France – induced by generous allowances – has more children than a Tunisian woman in Tunisia.

Why Turkey may become an ever more reliable partner of the West Year Population Children PPP-US$

(million) per woman per capita(Total fertility)

1950 21 6.9 ?1960 28 6.6 ?1970 36 5.7 1,100 $

1965-2007: Emigration of 5 million young reduces internecine pressure.

1980 45 4.7 2,120 $

1980-2000: 40,000 killed in left versus right or Turk versus Kurd frictions .

1990 56 3.7 4,260 $ 2000 65 2.7 6,250 $2007 71 1.89 9,000 $

Today’s Iran: A demographic paper tiger

Iran’s President Ahmadinejad on 23 October 2006:“I am against saying that two children are enough. Our country has […] the capacity for many children to grow in it. It even has the capacity for 120 million people. Westerners have got problems. Because their population growth is negative, they are worried and fear that if our population increases, we will triumph over them.” 

Population (mill.) Total Fertility

1955 18 (7.0 children/woman) 1965 25 (7.0 children/woman)1975 33 (6.4 children/woman)

1978: 36 mill. Median age: 15. Youth bulge driven Islamic revolution (100,000 killed)

1985 50 (6.6 children/woman)

1980-1988: 600,000 men lost against Iraq. Teenagers consumed as life mine sweepers

1995 61 (4.3 children/woman)2007 70 (1.7 children/woman; median age: 26)

YOUTH BULGE PARADOXES 

You are damned if you do, damned if you don’t, and damned if you have to. 

The right to engage in demographic armament – i.e. raising seven or more children per family, thereby creating a national youth bulge that in turn creates conditions that lead to violence and aggression – is protected under every international law.

Intervening against demographic armament constitutes the international crime of genocide.* 

If youth bulge nations begin annihilating their minorities, failure to render assistance to the victims will make you an accomplice to genocide.**

  If youth bulge nations threaten your country, you must let them strike the first blow before international law will permit you to take military action against the aggressor.

In any case you will not be allowed to take measures against the youth bulge that caused the aggression, or against any youth bulges that may occur in the future.

YOUTH BULGES, VIOLENCE, AND DEVELOPMENT 

Professor Gunnar Heinsohn; Director, Raphael-Lemkin-Institute, University of Bremen2 April, 2008. LUX Nijmegen, Holland

STRATEGY to 2020 First Principle DO NOT INTERVENE WHILST A YOUTH BULGE RUNS ITS COURSE!  Second Principle CUT ALL FOREIGN AID FORDEMOGRAPHIC ARMAMENT! Third Principle TURN A YOUTH BULGE DRIVEN WAR BACK INTO A CIVIL WAR! Fourth Principle LEAVE NATION BUILDING TO THE END OF A YOUTH BULGE!

Potential democratic allies that are in the process of demographic disarmament but still fall short of demographic capitulation (like the UK) 

India Brazil Mexico USA UK[Population 2022 1.4 billion. 214 mill. 127 mill. 341 mill. 63 mill.]Population 2007 1130 mill. 190 mill. 109 mill. 302 mill. 61 mill.Population 1957 405 mill. 64 mill. 33 mill. 171 mill. 52 mill.Male Median Age 25 years 28 years 25 years 36 years 39 yearsTotal fertility 2007 child/wom. 2.8 c/w 1.9 c/w 2.4 c/w 2.1 c/w 1.7 c/w_______________________________________________________________________________________________X boys aged 0-4 succeed 1,860 1,220 1,750 977 671000 men aged 40-44 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000_______________________________________________________________________________________________Fighting age males (15-29) 157 mill. 26 mill. 14 mill. 33 mill. 6 mill.Reserves to 2022 (0-14) 188 mill.* 24.5 mill. 17 mill. 31 mill. 5.4 mill.___________________________________________________________________________________•Since there are only 172 million Indian girls aged 0-14, 16 million young Indian men will have problems to find a spouse.

A Declining West in Mutual Cannibalization for Foreign Talent  Annual demand up to 2050 |For Skilled Immigration | Newborn 2007 TF= Total Fertility=children in a woman’s lifetime; 2007 (World: 2.6). MA=Median Age in years (World: 28)__________________________________________________________________________________________

Australia (TF: 1.76; MA: 37.1 100,000 | Austria (TF: 1.37; MA: 41.3) 71,000UK (TF: 1.66; MA: 39.6) 200,000 | Switzerl. (TF: 1.44; MA: 40.4) 73,000Ireland (TF: 1.86; MA: 34.3) 30,000 | Germany (TF:1.40;MA:42,6) 680,000 Canada (TF: 1.61; MA: 39.1) 130,000 | Poland (TF: 1.26; MA: 37.3) 383,000New Zealand (TF: 1.79; MA: 34.2) 20,000 | Ukraine (TF: 1.24; MA: 39.2) 483,000USA (TF: 2.09; Whites: 1.8; MA: 36.6) 1,200,000 |

1,680,000 | 1,680,000

Global Distribution of Fighting Age Males (15-29 years) between 1492 and 2020The Terrorists’ Alternative is neither Peace nor Retreat but Conquest or DefeatOut of 1.000 fighting age males (15-29 years) worldwide live - all figures rounded - in:

Europe USAnada AUS/NZ Lat.-Am. Asia Africa | [All Muslims] [UK alone]_____________________________________________________________________________________1492 110[West-E.] ? ? ? 700 115 | ? [5; E+W][World pop. ”Christianists“ [youth bulge] [youth bulge]0,4 billion] Secundones in 16th c. Spanish

1750 192 1 3 15 658 130 | ? [10; GB][World pop. [“White Imperialists”] [youth bulge]

0,7 billion] “Christianists“ [youth bulge]

1914 275 73 5 47 525 75 | 95 [35; UK][World pop. [“White Imperialists“: 353 [youth bulge [youth bulge]

1,8 billion] ”Christianists“ [youth bulge] 1950 –2000]

2006 89 39 4 90 618 160 280 [8; UK][World pop. [“Western Democracies“: 132 [youth bulge] | „Islamists“ 6,5 billion] Only sons or children [youth bulge] 2020a 71b 44c 5 87 611 182 300d [5;e UK][World pop. [“Western Democracies“: 120 [youth bulge] | „Islamists“8 billion] [without immigrants: 90f [youth bulge]____________________________________________________________________________________________________________a 2020-figures multiplied by one million give nearly exact number of males, e,s.g., 120 million warrior age Westerners versus 300 million warrior age Muslims. b More than 20 million will be mostly Muslim immigrants. Non-minority sons are, statistically, either only sons or even only children. c 14 million will be immigrants (up to 40% of whom will be Muslims). Non-minority sons are, statistically, only sons with a high rate of obesity. d Of these 300 million two thirds - like 1750 or 1914 in the Christian world – will be second or further sons (200 million). e 2 of them minorities. UK non-minority males will be only sons or only children. f Statistically only sons or children.

 

YOUTH BULGES, VIOLENCE, AND DEVELOPMENT 

Professor Gunnar Heinsohn; Director, Raphael-Lemkin-Institute, University of Bremen2 April, 2008. LUX Nijmegen, Holland

Binnenkort in LUX

Zondag 6 april: LUX Crash Course16.00 – 18.00 Hoe gevaarlijk is de film van Geert Wilders nu

echt?

Woensdag 9 april: Theatervoorstelling ´Honger´nagesprek met theatermaker Nanna Tieman