China natural gas industry development trend and investment decision analysis report, 2013 2020

2011紧固件制造行业

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China Natural Gas Industry Development Trend and Investment

Decision Analysis Report, 2013-2020

No comprehensive trend forecast, no gain.

(Help you to discover the unsatisfied market need of natural gas industry, and explicit the

development trend and prospect.)

Preface

Key for management is decision making while key for decision making is forecast. The outstanding

corporations would prefer to spend great efforts in seeking the current demand, potential need and new

requirement of the industry.

As a clean, low-carbon and environmental energy, natural gas has become popular for investment

market. However, many problems still needed to be settled urgently, such as “how is the development trend

of the industry”, “how is the market capacity”, “what kind of field does the potential segment market mainly

concentrated in”, “what are the development dilemmas and how to settle down”, “what are the investment

hotspots” and “how is the investment trend of the leading corporations”. Therefore, the outstanding natural

gas corporations pay more and more attention to the research of industrial development trend, especially the

in-depth research of development dilemma and investment opportunities.

The most significant features of this report are perceptiveness and timeliness. It is with a forward-

looking analysis of massive first-hand research data; it conducts an in-depth and objective analysis about the

overall market capability, market size, competition structure and market demand characteristics; it gives a

prudent analysis and forecast of natural gas industry according to the industry development track and

Forward’s years of practical experience. In conclusion, it is a significant report to learn about the latest

development trend, grab market opportunities, and make correct marketing decision and explicit

corporations’ development trend for all natural gas management corporations, Natural Gas exploration and

manufacturing corporations, R&D institutes, transformation and distribution corporations and Investment

corporations. Besides, it is the first heavyweight report to give a comprehensive and systematic analysis

about the upstream and downstream industrial chain, as well as key corporations in natural gas industry.

This report is useful for natural gas management corporations, natural gas exploration and

manufacturing corporations, R&D institutes, transformation and distribution corporations and Investment

corporations for the following reasons: it will help them to accurately know the latest development trend and

timely discover the market gaps, opportunities, growth points and profit points of industrial textile industry;

it will assist them to grasp the unmet market demand and development trend prospectively, form the

sustainable advantages, avoid the investment risks effectively, consolidate or expand relevant strategic target

markets more efficiently, and firmly grasp the competition initiative.

Here, we would like to express our sincere gratitude to China Gas Website, Natural Gas Association in

different provinces and cities, State Information Center, Bureau of Statistics of China, General

Administration of Customs, International Information Research Institute, Chinese Academy of International

Trade and Economic Cooperation, Tsinghua University Library and Development Research Center of the

State Council, for their great support when we conduct this report!

Special Notes: Neglecting the subtle signals of dramatically changing external environment, and

untimely update strategies along with the changing environment will lead to the loss of competition

advantages. The successful corporations will keep a scientific analysis upon the external environment before

making their significant operational strategies!

Forward Business Intelligence sincerely wishes every ambitious corporation can make a significant

operational strategy, effectively avoid the industry risks and gain the continuous success!

Forward Business Intelligence Co., Ltd. Industry Research Center

Research Team of Natural Gas Industry

CONTENTS

Chapter I：Life Cycle and Development Trend of Natural Gas Industry

1.1 Definition of the Industry

1.1.1 Definition

1.1.2 Classification

1.1.3 Analysis of the Industry Chain

1.2 Life Cycle of the Industry

1.2.1 Life Cycle Theory

1.2.2 Life Cycle of Natural Gas Industry

(1) Growth Characteristics of Natural Gas Industry

(2) Competition Characteristics of Natural Gas Industry

(3) Profit Characteristics of Natural Gas Industry

1.2.3 Admeasurement of the Life Cycle Phrase of China Natural Gas Industry

1.3 Overall Development Trend of China Natural Gas in next 8 Years

1.3.1 The Natural Gas Gap May Enlarged in next 8 Years

1.3.2 The Unconventional Gas will Develop in Large-scale in next 8 Years

1.3.3 China Natural Gas Industry will be Faced with Price System Problem in next 8 Years

1.3.4 The Shale-Gas Resource May be Developed in Large-scale in next 8 Years

1.3.5 China Natural Gas Distributed-energy-resource is Hopefully to Develop in Large-scale in next

8 Years

1.3.6 The Investment Focuses of Natural Gas will lay in Downstream Chain in next 8 Years

Chapter II：Supply Market Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

2.1 Supply Scale Forecast of China Natural Gas Market during 2013-2020

2.1.1 Influencing Factors to the Natural Gas Supply Scale in the Future

(1) Reserve and Production Ratio of Natural Gas in the Future

(2) Influence of the Policy Trend to Natural Gas in the Future

a. As the Clean Energy, Natural Gas Will Be the Emphasized Energy to Develop in the Future

b. Develop Natural Gas Will Be the Inevitable Choice to Adjust National Energy Structure and

Energy Security

(3) Influence of the Technology to Natural Gas in the Future

(4) Price Trend Forecast of Natural Gas during 2013-2020

a. Price Trend of Natural Gas in Foreign Countries

b. Price Trend Forecast of Natural Gas during 2013-2020 in China

2.1.2 Supply Scale Forecast of China Natural Gas Market during 2013-2020

2.2 Supply Structure Forecast of China Natural Gas during 2013-2020

2.2.1 Supply Structure Forecast of China Natural Gas in the Future

(1) Hierarchical Prediction Method

(2) Data Reasoning of China Natural Gas Supply Source in the Future

(3) Supply Structure Forecast of China Natural Gas during 2013-2020

2.2.2 Forecast of the Largest Supply Market in the Future-Conventional Gas

(1) Influencing Factors

a. Production Trend of China Conventional Gas

b. Planning on Major China Conventional Gas in the Future

(2) Supply Scale Forecast of China Conventional Gas during 2013-2020

2.2.3 Forecast of the Most Potential Supply Market in the Future-Unconventional Gas

(1) Tight Gas Will Develop in Large-scale in next 8 Years

a. Distribution of China Tight Gas Resources

b. Supply Scale Forecast of China Tight Gas during 2013-2020

(2) Shale Gas May Become the New Power of Unconventional Gas in next 8 Years

a. Distribution of China Shale Gas Resources

b. Supply Scale Forecast of China Shale Gas during 2013-2020

(3) Coal-bed Gas Will Be Marketization in next 8 Years

a. Distribution of China Coal-bed Gas Resources

b. Supply Scale Forecast of China Coal-bed Gas during 2013-2020

(4) Coal Gas Will Become the Significant Supplement in next 8 Years

a. Distribution of China Coal Gas Resources

b. Supply Scale Forecast of China Coal Gas during 2013-2020

(5) Import Gas Will Steadily Increase in next 8 Years

a. Imports of Pipeline Gas Will Increase Fast in next 8 Years

b. Imports of LNG Will Grow Steadily in next 8 Years

Chapter III：Market Demand Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.1 Market Capacity Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.1.1 Econometric Model Construction of the Market Capacity of China Natural Gas Industry

(1) Model Setting

(2) Data Collection and Parameter Evaluation

(3) Model Test

a. Goodness-of-fit Evaluation and Durbin-Watson Test

b. Significance Testing of Regression Coefficient

c. Overall Significance Testing of Regression Equation

d. Normality Test

e. Economic Significance Test

3.1.2 Market Capacity Forecast of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.2 Forecast of Major Segment Markets of China Natural Gas Industry during 2013-2020

3.2.1 Prediction Method and Idea of Segment Markets of China Natural Gas Industry

(1) Hierarchical Prediction Method

(2) Data Reasoning of China Natural Gas Segment Market in the Future

(3) Forecast of China Natural Gas Consumption during 2013-2020

3.2.2 Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Residents' Fuel Gas during 2013-2020

(1) Natural Gas Market Demand to China Residents' Fuel Gas in next Decade

a. Natural Gas Will Become the Alternative Energy with the Fast Growth in next Decade

b. The Popularity Rate of Natural Gas Will Greatly Increase in next Decade

(2) Factors to Promote the Natural Gas Demand in Urban Areas

a. Advantages of Natural Gas

b. Strongly Policy Supports

c. Construction of Natural Gas Pipeline Network

d. Penetration Rate of User Amount Will Increase

e. New Urbanization Promotes the Growth of User Amount

(3) Forecast of China Town Gas Market Capacity during 2013-2020

3.2.3 Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Power Generation during 2013-2020

(1) Major Application of Natural Gas in Power Generation

a. Peaking Power Plant

b. Distributed Energy Sources

(2) Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Power Generation during 2013-2020

a. Planning on Natural Gas Power Generation Scale during 2013-2020

b. Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Power Generation during 2013-2020

3.2.4 Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Transportation during 2013-2020

(1) Market Size Forecast of LNG Vehicle during 2013-2020

(2) Market Demand Forecast of Natural Gas in the Field of Transportation during 2013-2020

Chapter IV：Development Dilemma and Solutions of China Natural Gas Industry in next 8 Years

4.1 Enlarging Gap of Natural Gas Supply and Demand and the Solution in next 8 Years

4.1.1 China Natural Gas Supply and Demand during 2013-2020

(1) China Natural Gas Supply-Demand Gap Will Enlarge

(2) Foreign-trade Dependence of China Natural Gas Will Increase

(3) Early Warming Status of China Natural Gas

a. Supply and Demand Ratio of Natural Gas

b. Early Warming Evaluation of Natural Gas

c. Early Warming Status of Natural Gas

4.1.2 Solutions to China Natural Gas Supply-Demand Gap in next 8 Years

(1) Increase the Development of Unconventional Gas

(2) Enlarge the Import Scale of Natural Gas

4.2 Improve the Reforming Way of Natural Gas Price Mechanism in next 8 Years

4.2.1 Overview of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

(1) Theory of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

a. Principle Parts of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

b. Methods of Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

c. Adjustment and Control of Natural Gas Price

(2) Influencing Factors to Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

a. Industry Factor

b. Political Factor

c. International Market

4.2.2 Analysis of Current Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism and Existing Problem

(1) Evolution of China Natural Gas Price Management

(2) Current Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism in China

a. Current Pricing Mechanism of Domestic Natural Gas

(a) Pricing of Ex-factory Price

(b) Pricing of Pipeline Transportation Price

(c) Terminal Pricing

b. Current Pricing Mechanism of Import Natural Gas

(3) Existing Problems of Current Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism in China

a. Price Control Leads to Low Ex-factory Price

b. Accurate Alternative Energy Price Linkage Mechanism is not Formed Yet

c. Single and Simple Pipeline Pricing, and Unreasonable Pipeline Transportation Price

d. Connection Fee is High, and Cost of Pipeline Network Gas Distribution is Unreasonable

e. Uncompleted Import Gas Pricing Mechanism, and the Gas Price is Upside Down

4.2.3 Highlights of the Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism in Developed Countries

(1) Pricing of Natural Gas Wellhead Price

a. Market Pricing-America

b. Competition Pricing-British

(2) Pricing of Pipeline Transportation Price

a. Making Pipeline Transportation Fee Rate, and Introducing Third-party Access System-America

b. Price Cap Pricing-British

(3) Pricing of Terminal Market Price

a. Service Cost Pricing-America

b. Market Pricing-British

4.2.4 Forward's Picture about Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism

(1) Basic Fundamental of China Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism in the Future

(2) Recommended Mechanism One: Net Market Value Method

(3) Recommended Mechanism Two: Improve Pipeline Transportation Fee System, "Two

Departments System" of Cost-recovering

(4) Recommended Mechanism Three: Gas Distribution Fee Implement "Two Department System"

(5) Recommended Mechanism Four: Price Discrimination of Terminal Price

Chapter V：Investment Hotspot of China Natural Gas Industry in next 8 Years: Shale Gas

5.1 Development Status of China Shale Gas

5.1.1 Resource Investigating Status

5.1.2 Resource Management Status

5.1.3 Resource Exploration Status

5.1.4 Foreign Cooperation Status

5.1.5 Key Technical Problem Status

5.2 The Next 8 Years Will be the Golden Period for Shale Gas Investment

5.2.1 Shale Gas Becomes the Independent Mineral

5.2.2 Be Engaged in Mining Actively

5.2.3 Publishing the Development Planning

5.2.4 Subsidy Policy to Development and Utilization

5.2.5 Commercialization Potential is Large

5.3 Investment Experience of Shale Gas in Foreign Countries

5.3.1 Development of Shale Gas in America

(1) Production of Shale Gas in America

(2) Development Planning of Shale Gas in America

(3) Development Forecast of Shale Gas in America

5.3.2 Development Experience of Shale Gas in America

(1) Preferential Policy of the Government

(2) Development Progress of the Technology

(3) Open Competition Environment

(4) Completed Market Supervision

(5) Completed Infrastructure

(6) Professional Technology Service

5.3.3 Typical Case Study-Devon

(1) Technology Innovation and Lasting

(2) Enlarging Resource Scale and Production Capability through Merger

5.3.4 Highlight and Development Differences of Shale Gas between China and America

(1) Development Differences of Shale Gas between China and America

a. Complex Geological Structure of China Shale Gas

b. Development of China Shale Gas is Lack of Core Technology

c. China is Difficult to Copy American Model due to Limited Water Resources

d. Contradiction of High Cost of Shale Gas Development and Enormous Investment in China

e. Limitation of the Development and Pricing Mechanism of China Natural Gas

(2) Highlight of the Development of American Shale Gas for China

Highlight One: Advanced Management Experience in America

Highlight Two: Encourage Private Corporations to Get Involved, Increase Market Competition, and

Promote Commercialization Efficiency

Highlight Three: Improve the Policy Supports to Shale Gas Development

Highlight Four: Construct and Improve the Macro-Management System of Shale Gas Development

5.4 Investment Value and Investment Strategy to China Shale Gas in next 8 Years

5.4.1 Analysis of the Investment Prospects

5.4.2 Analysis of the Investment Risks

(1) Immaturity Technology

(2) Difficult to Develop

(3) High Development Cost

(4) High Environment Risk

5.4.3 Investment Suggestions to Shale Gas

(1) Evaluation of Development Phrase

a. Exploration Phrase (by the year of 2015)

b. Large-scale Exploration Phrase (2015-2020)

(2) Evaluation of Industrial Value Chain

(3) Recommended Investment Fields

a. Exploration Chain

b. Equipment Manufacturing

c. Technology Service

d. Mining Chain

Chapter VI ： Investment Hotspot of China Natural Gas Industry in next 8 Years: Natural Gas Distributed

Energy Resource

6.1 Advantages of Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource

6.1.1 High Conversion Efficiency

6.1.2 Supply Power to Remote Area

6.1.3 Improve Liability of Power Supply

6.2 Market Prospects of Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource

6.2.1 Development Status of Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource

6.2.2 Market Prospects of Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource

6.3 Project Economics of Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource

6.3.1 Analysis of Project Capacity Range

6.3.2 Analysis of Irradiation Loop

6.3.3 Analysis of Project Investment Pay-back-Period

6.3.4 Analysis of Project Initial Outlay

6.3.5 Analysis of Annual Saving Cost

6.4 Market Capacity of Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource in next 8 Years

6.5 Commercial Investment Model and Realization Ways of China Natural Gas Distributed

Energy Resource in next 8 Years

6.5.1 Commercial Investment Model of China Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource in next 8

Years

(1) Design Principles Needed to Follow

a. Persistence Principle

b. Customer Value Maximization Principle

c. Resource Integration Principle

d. Risk Control Principle

(2) Prediction of Future Investors

(3) Commercial Investment Model during Investment and Construction Phrase

a. Major Works during Investment and Construction Phrase

b. Principle Market Parts during Investment and Construction Phrase

(a) Government Department

(b) Distributed Energy Equipment Suppliers

(c) Distributed Energy Investors

(d) Energy Management Services

(e) Users

c. Investment Model during Investment and Construction Phrase

(4) Commercial Investment Model during Operation and Maintaining Phrase

a. Major Contents during Operation and Maintaining Phrase

b. Principle Market Parts during Operation and Maintaining Phrase

(a) Government Department

(b) Distributed Energy Equipment Suppliers

(c) Distributed Energy Investors

(d) Energy Management Services

(e) Users

c. Investment Model during Operation and Maintaining Phrase

6.5.2 Commercial Investment Ways of China Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource in next 8

Years

(1) Development Ways

(2) Market Development Strategy

a. Selection of Target Market

b. Positioning of Target Market

(a) Product Positioning

(b) Corporation Positioning

6.6 Business Model of China Natural Gas Distributed Energy Resource in the Future

6.6.1 Optional Business Models in next 8 Years

6.6.2 Introducing Contract Energy Management Mechanism to Natural Gas Distributed Energy

Resource

6.6.3 Major Models of Contract Energy Management Mechanism to Natural Gas Distributed Energy

Resource

(1) Benefit-Sharing Model

(2) Energy Saving and Quality Guarantee Model

(3) Energy Fee Collocating Model

Chapter Ⅶ：Investment Characteristics to China Natural Gas Industry Chain in Next 8 Years

7.1 Investment Opportunities to Natural Gas Industry Chain in next 8 Years

7.1.1 Investment of Natural Gas Industry Chain

7.1.2 Investment Opportunities to the Upstream

(1) Investment Opportunity One: Oil Gas Equipment

a. Fracturing Equipment

(a) Market Size Forecast

(b) Market Competition

(c) Major Competitors

b. Other Equipment

(a) Well Drilling

(b) Coiled Tubing Equipment

(2) Investment Opportunity Two: Energy Service

a. Energy Business Demand to Develop Shale Gas

b. Private Corporations May Become New Investors

7.1.3 Investment Opportunities to the Midstream

(1) Investment Reasons

a. Small-sized Liquidation Equipment with a Strong Profitability

b. Structure of Constructed LNG Liquidation Equipment

(2) Investment Scale Forecast of Small-sized Liquidation Equipment Market

7.1.4 Investment Opportunities to the Downstream

7.2 Investment Characteristics of Leading Natural Gas Corporations in next 8 Years

7.2.1 Investment Characteristics of Leading Upstream Corporations in next 8 Years

(1) Investment Characteristics of Jerry Co., Ltd.

(2) Investment Characteristics of LandOcean Energy Services Co., Ltd.

(3) Investment Characteristics of hina Oil Hbp Science & Technology Co., ltd.

7.2.2 Investment Characteristics of Leading Midstream Corporations in next 8 Years

(1) Investment Characteristics of Jiangsu Yulong Steel Pipe Co., Ltd.

(2) Investment Characteristics of Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline and Technologies Co., Ltd.

(3) Investment Characteristics of Petrochina Jinhong Energy Investment Co., ltd.

7.2.3 Investment Characteristics of Leading Downstream Corporations in next 8 Years

(1) Investment Characteristics of Sichuan Meifeng Chemical Industry Co., Ltd.

(2) Investment Characteristics of Shenzhen Fuel Gas Co., Ltd.

(3) Investment Characteristics of ZHEJIANG JIANGSHAN CHEMICAL CO., LTD.

Attachment One: Development Status of China Natural Gas Industry in 2012

1. Analysis of Natural Gas Reserve

1.1 Growth of Natural Gas Reserve

1.2 Structure of Natural Gas Reserve

2. Balance between Supply and Demand of Natural Gas

2.1 Production of Natural Gas

2.1.1 Gross Production of Natural Gas

2.1.2 Regional Distribution of Natural Gas Production

2.2 Imports of Natural Gas

2.2.1 Gross Imports of Natural Gas

2.2.2 Imports Status of Major Import Countries

2.2.3 Dependence Degree of Natural Gas Imports

2.3 Consumption of Natural Gas

2.3.1 Consumption Amount of Natural Gas

2.3.2 Regional Distribution of Natural Gas Consumption

2.4 Balance between Supply and Demand of Natural Gas

Attachment Two: Typical Market Data of China Natural Gas Industry during 2012-2015

1. Valuation Index and Rate Changes of Major Listed Corporations during 2012-2015

2. Market Share of Major Corporations of Natural Gas Industry Chain in Current Years

3. Major Listed Corporations Relate to Natural Gas Development in Current Years

4. Major Natural Gas Pipeline in China during 2004-2015 (Part One)

5. Major Natural Gas Pipeline in China during 2004-2015 (Part Two)

6. Statistics of LNG Receiving Stations which Plan to Construct, under construction, and had

been constructed

Attachment Three: Operation of Leading Natural Gas Corporations in China in 2012

1. Operation of Yantai Jereh Oilfield Services Group Co., Ltd.

1.1 Major Economic Index

1.2 Profitability of the Company

1.3 Operation Capability of the Company

1.4 Debt-paying Capability of the Company

1.5 Development Capability of the Company

2. Operation of LandOcean Energy Services Co., Ltd.






3. Operation of CHINA OIL HBP SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY CO., LTD.






4. Operation of Jiangsu Yulong Steel Pipe Co., Ltd.






5. Operation of ZHEJIANG KINGLAND PIPELINE AND TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD.






6. Operation of LANPEC TECHNOLOGIES CO., LTD.






7. Operation of Anhui Ankai Automobile Co., Ltd.






8. Operation of SHENZHEN GAS CORPORATION LTD






9. Operation of Shenzhen Gas Corporation Ltd.






10. Operation of Zhejiang Jiangshan Chemical Co., Ltd.






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