Моделирование палеоклиматов с целью изучения механизмов формирования климатических изменений

, . : . : , , , . . 6 21 . . . .: -, , . . .

: XXI -

2

0.36000

0.36101010

0.4202020

0.56303030

0.91404040

1.47505050

2.17606060

2.86707070

3.38808080

200.32020

250.52525

300.63030

350.73535

400.74040

4514545

5015050

5515555

601.36060

652.26565

702.67070

752.87575

802.98080

852.88585

000.230

10100.3410

20200.3420

30300.4530

40400.9140

50501.7150

60602.6160

70703.4170

80803.8680

0000.31

1010100.29

2020200.39

3030300.72

4040401.2

5050501.77

6060602.18

7070702.91

8080803.08

1

2

3

4

.

0

1

1234

00.36

100.36

200.4

300.56

400.91

501.47

602.17

702.86

803.38

200.3

250.5

300.6

350.7

400.7

451

501

551

601.3

652.2

702.6

752.8

802.9

852.8

00.23

100.34

200.34

300.45

400.91

501.71

602.61

703.41

803.86

00.31

100.29

200.39

300.72

401.2

501.77

602.18

702.91

803.08

1

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0000

0000

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1

2

3

4

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2

3

: ,

21 . -

: 4200 : , ( ) : - 14-15 .

: : 6000 14C

: (Bristlecone pine) ~ 5000 ( ) Th/U 14

: , , , .

2 0,5 .

1

640557

870532

570505

1750483

1290462

1270442

870425

860409

870390

1230386

1800354

2990334

1220302

2470270

880246

900230

1660216

1120199

1200177

1580160

2310143

1480117

178084

76062

120047

32031

76017

4505.5

0250

1

2

Ma, before present

ppmv

1

12

557640

532870

505570

4831750

4621290

4421270

425870

409860

390870

3861230

3541800

3342990

3021220

2702470

246880

230900

2161660

1991120

1771200

1601580

1432310

1171480

841780

62760

471200

31320

17760

5.5450

0250

1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

1

2

.

ppmv

2

3

1

2.91.3

3.93.9

2.32.6

7.71.3

6.51.3

6.6-3.9

4.71.3

4.80

5.10

6.61.3

8.32.6

113.9

5-9.1

8-6.5

6.22

6.22.6

8.77.8

7.13.9

7.73.9

9.35.2

10.910.3

9.28.9

10.49.9

6.77.8

8.57.8

2.83.9

6.45.2

3.42.6

00

1

2

106 years BP

0C

1 - (1985), 2 - Frakes (1979)

1

12

557640

532870

505570

4831750

4621290

4421270

425870

409860

390870

3861230

3541800

3342990

3021220

2702470

246880

230900

2161660

1991120

1771200

1601580

1432310

1171480

841780

62760

471200

31320

17760

5.5450

0250

1

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

1

2

.

ppmv

2

12

5572.91.3

5323.93.9

5052.32.6

4837.71.3

4626.51.3

4426.6-3.9

4254.71.3

4094.80

3905.10

3866.61.3

3548.32.6

334113.9

3025-9.1

2708-6.5

2466.22

2306.22.6

2168.77.8

1997.13.9

1777.73.9

1609.35.2

14310.910.3

1179.28.9

8410.49.9

626.77.8

478.57.8

312.83.9

176.45.2

5.53.42.6

000

2

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

00

1

2

.

3

(t,0C), 2, 4, N2O 18 : 100, 41, ~20 .

: : 41 ~20 .

dT/dt=T(t)+ f ( ) k

3

0.46183453410.0031449045

0.80717058670.00625

10.0093949045

0.52770031030.0125

0.2336290680.0156449045

0.08079224260.01875

0.08971692240.0218949045

0.29435018740.025

0.28482623880.0281449045

0.25961505360.03125

0.22533376220.0343949045

0.12121685130.0375

0.16767700170.0406449045

0.24587981190.0437898089

0.18692583720.0468949045

0.1185684510.0500398089

0.07288387750.0531449045

0.06079833670.0562898089

0.05930182790.0593949045

0.02147889560.0625398089

0.02106364880.0656449045

0.04226233090.0687898089

0.04227245220.0718949045

0.04064929720.0750398089

0.04531262080.0781449045

0.0455045380.0812898089

0.03995551940.0844347134

0.02858561690.0875398089

0.02151400970.0906847134

0.02751851440.0937898089

0.02939488410.0969347134

0.01768524370.1000398089

0.02964323230.1031847134

0.05707178070.1062898089

0.04053686230.1094347134

0.01086770540.1125398089

0.01050478670.1156847134

0.02230626990.1188296178

0.03034353330.1219347134

0.01702255470.1250796178

0.01479978150.1281847134

0.03004806010.1313296178

0.03652100690.1344347134

0.02113810930.1375796178

0.01503607990.1406847134

0.00729663240.1438296178

0.00499057160.1469347134

0.00806459880.1500796178

0.00571932110.1531847134

0.00793620530.1563296178

0.01470876710.1594745223

0.01691110350.1625796178

0.0152950930.1657245223

0.0054297110.1688296178

0.00521392710.1719745223

0.01281636110.1750796178

0.01423513490.1782245223

0.00851778120.1813296178

0.00566492210.1844745223

0.0096713810.1875796178

0.01811937410.1907245223

0.01710291720.1938296178

0.01473814750.1969745223

0.01198959520.2001194268

0.018753.413

0.0251.92

0.10.12

0.20.03

1

2

/.

12

0.00793.56824870.00314490450.4618345341

0.01576.2364011T=2*3,14* (time step)/fdimensionless0.006250.8071705867

0.02367.7262492I -> 1/T cycles/ka0.00939490451

0.03144.07714410.01250.5277003103

0.03931.80507640.01564490450.233629068

0.04710.6242210.018750.0807922426

0.0550.69317530.02189490450.0897169224

0.06282.27422290.0250.294350187440

0.07072.20063850.02814490450.2848262388

0.07852.00585060.031250.2596150536

0.08641.74098480.03439490450.2253337622

0.09420.93655160.03750.1212168513

0.10211.29551430.04064490450.1676770017

0.111.89972870.04378980890.245879811920

0.11781.44423560.04689490450.1869258372

0.12570.91608940.05003980890.118568451

0.13350.5631190.05314490450.0728838775

0.14140.46974310.05628980890.0607983367

0.14920.45818070.05939490450.0593018279

0.15710.16595130.06253980890.0214788956

0.16490.1627430.06564490450.0210636488

0.17280.32652930.06878980890.0422623309

0.18060.32660750.07189490450.0422724522

0.18850.31406660.07503980890.0406492972

0.19630.35009660.07814490450.0453126208

0.20420.35157940.08128980890.045504538

0.21210.30870630.08443471340.0399555194

0.21990.22085960.08753980890.0285856169

0.22780.16622260.09068471340.0215140097

0.23560.21261490.09378980890.0275185144

0.24350.22711220.09693471340.0293948841

0.25130.13664060.10003980890.0176852437

0.25920.2290310.10318471340.0296432323

0.2670.44095080.10628980890.0570717807

0.27490.31319790.10943471340.0405368623

0.28270.08396660.11253980890.0108677054

0.29060.08116260.11568471340.0105047867

0.29850.17234380.11882961780.0223062699

0.30630.23444170.12193471340.0303435333

0.31420.13152050.12507961780.0170225547

0.3220.11434680.12818471340.0147997815

0.32990.23215880.13132961780.0300480601

0.33770.28217040.13443471340.0365210069

0.34560.16331830.13757961780.0211381093

0.35340.11617250.14068471340.0150360799

0.36130.05637560.14382961780.0072966324

0.36910.03855840.14693471340.0049905716

0.3770.06230910.15007961780.0080645988

0.38480.04418890.15318471340.0057193211

0.39270.06131710.15632961780.0079362053

0.40060.11364360.15947452230.0147087671

0.40840.13065940.16257961780.0169111035

0.41630.11817370.16572452230.015295093

0.42410.04195130.16882961780.005429711

0.4320.04028410.17197452230.0052139271

0.43980.09902240.17507961780.0128163611

0.44770.10998420.17822452230.0142351349

0.45550.06581050.18132961780.0085177812

0.46340.04376860.18447452230.0056649221

0.47120.07472350.18757961780.009671381

0.47910.13999480.19072452230.0181193741

0.48690.13214140.19382961780.0171029172

0.49480.11387060.19697452230.0147381475

0.50270.09263460.20011942680.0119895952

0.51050.06977730.018753.413

0.51840.07202780.0251.92

0.52620.06821690.10.12

0.53410.06453770.20.03

0.54190.0757784

0.54980.0854242

0.55760.0891113

0.56550.0764916

0.57330.0649312

0.58120.0281549

0.5890.0175592

0.59690.0298658

0.60480.0546996

0.61260.0451528

0.62050.0233926

0.62830.0274346

0.63620.0533087

0.6440.0882085

0.65190.0544093

0.65970.0403213

0.66760.0507235

0.67540.0161152

0.68330.0131744

0.69120.0553823

0.6990.0663389

0.70690.0562976

0.71470.0627579

0.72260.0762862

0.73040.0792667

0.73830.0578998

0.74610.0711411

0.7540.0525591

0.76180.0442569

0.76970.0643643

0.77750.0448227

0.78540.0602977

0.79330.0713818

0.80110.0467335

0.8090.0248455

0.81680.0195471

0.82470.0247886

0.83250.0149382

0.84040.0116663

0.84820.0160561

0.85610.0165441

0.86390.0132778

0.87180.0109993

0.87960.0145638

0.88750.0361721

0.89540.0388246

0.90320.0181572

0.91110.0132259

0.91890.0075904

0.92680.0141367

0.93460.0255781

0.94250.020996

0.95030.0225322

0.95820.0475847

0.9660.0486219

0.97390.0255521

0.98170.0379265

0.98960.0411578

0.99750.0226164

1.00530.0110898

1.01320.015148

1.0210.0185091

1.02890.0247243

1.03670.0184372

1.04460.0067072

1.05240.0091657

1.06030.014064

1.06810.0138509

1.0760.0078786

1.08380.0087653

1.09170.01491

1.09960.0158205

1.10740.0232407

1.11530.0202495

1.12310.0136067

1.1310.0275957

1.13880.0279391

1.14670.0313205

1.15450.0319518

1.16240.0459346

1.17020.0461099

1.17810.0155317

1.1860.0069044

1.19380.0158751

1.20170.0250121

1.20950.0308749

1.21740.0209837

1.22520.0151831

1.23310.0193052

1.24090.0147507

1.24880.0113689

1.25660.032183

1.26450.0510183

1.27230.0313677

1.28020.0222537

1.28810.0164268

1.29590.0101421

1.30380.0107935

1.31160.0228489

1.31950.0313313

1.32730.0193659

1.33520.0107936

1.3430.0086673

1.35090.0098546

1.35870.0291801

1.36660.0487189

1.37440.0292813

1.38230.0156671

1.39020.0095395

1.3980.0064456

1.40590.011361

1.41370.0163749

1.42160.0139957

1.42940.0145135

1.43730.018975

1.44510.0181378

1.4530.0104136

1.46080.0152338

1.46870.025687

1.47650.0288285

1.48440.0135129

1.49230.008684

1.50010.0099291

1.5080.025232

1.51580.0363436

1.52370.0541125

1.53150.0419864

1.53940.0284821

1.54720.0241907

1.55510.0051009

1.56290.0056257

1.57080.0133505

1.57870.0199078

1.58650.0257132

1.59440.0262052

1.60220.0179012

1.61010.0086502

1.61790.0054429

1.62580.0054902

1.63360.0066485

1.64150.0096141

1.64930.0071286

1.65720.012393

1.6650.0227364

1.67290.015384

1.68080.0043965

1.68860.003015

1.69650.0086876

1.70430.0128861

1.71220.0064439

1.720.0050194

1.72790.0063115

1.73570.0054406

1.74360.0179784

1.75140.0217456

1.75930.0108672

1.76710.0067671

1.7750.0180119

1.78290.0333545

1.79070.0286288

1.79860.0156764

1.80640.0091995

1.81430.0233559

1.82210.0533228

1.830.0395968

1.83780.0099379

1.84570.0129759

1.85350.0222052

1.86140.0174396

1.86920.0065826

1.87710.0035013

1.8850.0071132

1.89280.0086935

1.90070.0112218

1.90850.0074983

1.91640.0063991

1.92420.0083424

1.93210.0123098

1.93990.0149369

1.94780.0128974

1.95560.0129125

1.96350.0094157

1.97130.0066779

1.97920.0093605

1.98710.0093635

1.99490.0169151

2.00280.0200433

2.01060.0091808

2.01850.0094627

2.02630.0246805

2.03420.0353692

2.0420.0306314

2.04990.0170041

2.05770.0143255

2.06560.0223079

2.07350.0205715

2.08130.0215014

2.08920.0150411

2.0970.0074765

2.10490.0032905

2.11270.006853

2.12060.0144904

2.12840.0161014

2.13630.0185486

2.14410.0203359

2.1520.0261578

2.15980.029513

2.16770.0184236

2.17560.015645

2.18340.0156011

2.19130.0142052

2.19910.0242008

2.2070.0252354

2.21480.0156697

2.22270.010345

2.23050.0093279

2.23840.0112813

2.24620.0131342

2.25410.0192881

2.26190.0198949

2.26980.0169532

2.27770.0092369

2.28550.0076878

2.29340.012419

2.30120.0140339

2.30910.0074302

2.31690.0021989

2.32480.008054

2.33260.0094774

2.34050.0053125

2.34830.0056429

2.35620.0138616

2.3640.0162567

2.37190.0115959

2.37980.011404

2.38760.0242409

2.39550.0349113

2.40330.020225

2.41120.009789

2.4190.0075065

2.42690.0062432

2.43470.0100961

2.44260.0122012

2.45040.0118877

2.45830.009254

2.46620.0062455

2.4740.0064333

2.48190.0054467

2.48970.0055424

2.49760.0033442

2.50540.0035846

2.51330.002992

2.52110.0020045

2.5290.0015397

2.53680.0032153

2.54470.0080818

2.55250.0068023

2.56040.0033512

2.56830.0050006

2.57610.0076796

2.5840.0042099

2.59180.0037733

2.59970.0083508

2.60750.0098637

2.61540.0092827

2.62320.0141503

2.63110.0137821

2.63890.0046968

2.64680.0034073

2.65460.0111997

2.66250.0157926

2.67040.0153198

2.67820.0112091

2.68610.0081478

2.69390.0062309

2.70180.0116935

2.70960.0189079

2.71750.0183877

2.72530.0149636

2.73320.0126725

2.7410.0103436

2.74890.0128883

2.75670.0155106

2.76460.0107067

2.77250.0109618

2.78030.0073563

2.78820.0081529

2.7960.0096391

2.80390.0054204

2.81170.00789

2.81960.0097404

2.82740.0081853

2.83530.0115967

2.84310.0105918

2.8510.0036924

2.85880.0098988

2.86670.0201153

2.87460.0169054

2.88240.0106583

2.89030.0182901

2.89810.0132213

2.9060.0036353

2.91380.0031324

2.92170.0038236

2.92950.0073641

2.93740.0120531

2.94520.0083325

2.95310.0068715

2.9610.0100192

2.96880.007393

2.97670.0059066

2.98450.009309

2.99240.0098578

3.00020.0068577

3.00810.0092076

3.01590.0070155

3.02380.0058201

3.03160.0062006

3.03950.009286

3.04730.0116754

3.05520.010535

3.06310.010363

3.07090.0067887

3.07880.0031861

3.08660.0055181

3.09450.0075816

3.10230.00569

3.11020.0267012

3.1180.0322942

3.12590.0188357

3.13370.0176894

3.14160.0173771

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logarifm (2)

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fr_sp (2)

-2.20727491320.6417110865

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0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

2

0.5875275257

0.9508594605

0.9513513762

0.4

0.0015926529

-0.5862379992

-0.98

-0.8

-0.5901021047

0

0.7

0.76

0.8

0.4

0.0047779426

-0.34

-0.89

-0.87

-0.5926706963

0

0.5823605105

0.8

0.9532948953

0.5939527388

0

-0.5810650556

-0.9

-0.7

-0.6

-0.02

0.5797681267

0.9

0.9542521513

0.4

0.3

-0.5784697273

-0.9473485879

*10 ka

(a=0.5,t=2)

1

10.5875275257

20.9508594605

30.9513513762

40.4

50.0015926529

6-0.5862379992

7-0.98

8-0.8

9-0.5901021047

100

110.7

120.76

130.8

140.4

150.0047779426

16-0.34

17-0.89

18-0.87

19-0.5926706963

200

210.5823605105

220.8

230.9532948953

240.5939527388

250

26-0.5810650556

27-0.9

28-0.7

29-0.6

30-0.02

310.5797681267

320.9

330.9542521513

340.4

350.3

36-0.5784697273

37-0.9473485879

1

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

0

*10 ka

Normalized temperature fluctuations (a=0.5,t=2)

2

3

PMIP. 6 21 . . . .

PMIP: LGM

- (21 ka BP 0)/ SST CLIMAP/

3

-3.9-4.2-4.1

-4.3-5-4.7

-4-4.2-4.1

-4.4-3.9-4.2

-2.9-4.1-3.3

-3.1-3.3-3.2

-3-4-3.5

-2.8-3-2.9

-3.6-3.8-3.7

djf

jja

year

0C

1 (2)

2.0ccm1gen1gen2gfdllmcelmd4mri2ugampukmo

djf-6.1-6-6.1-4.6-4.3-2-4.6-4.2-5.4

jja-6.1-6.1-4.4-3.5-3.8-2-4.6-3.6-4.2

year-6.1-6.05-5.8-4-4-2-4.6-3.9-4.8

1 (2)

djf

jja

year

0C

1

2.0ccsr1echam3gen2lmcelmd4lmcelmd5mri2msuugamp

djf-3.9-4.3-4-4.4-2.9-3.1-3-2.8-3.6

jja-4.2-5-4.2-3.9-4.1-3.3-4-3-3.8

year-4.1-4.7-4.1-4.2-3.3-3.2-3.5-2.9-3.7

1

djf

jja

year

0C

2

3

4

-6.1-6.1-6.1

-6-6.1-6.05

-6.1-4.4-5.8

-4.6-3.5-4

-4.3-3.8-4

-2-2-2

-4.6-4.6-4.6

-4.2-3.6-3.9

-5.4-4.2-4.8

djf

jja

year

0C

1 (2)


djf-6.1-6-6.1-4.6-4.3-2-4.6-4.2-5.4

jja-6.1-6.1-4.4-3.5-3.8-2-4.6-3.6-4.2

year-6.1-6.05-5.8-4-4-2-4.6-3.9-4.8

1 (2)

djf

jja

year

0C

1


djf-3.9-4.3-4-4.4-2.9-3.1-3-2.8-3.6

jja-4.2-5-4.2-3.9-4.1-3.3-4-3-3.8

year-4.1-4.7-4.1-4.2-3.3-3.2-3.5-2.9-3.7

1

djf

jja

year

0C

2

3

(LGM ) PMIP LGM SST. : CCSM, FGOALS, HadCM, IPSL-CM, MIROC.

(LGM )1 Western Europe (9) and North Africa (1) 2 - East European Plane (5)3 North-East North America (4)4 West Siberian Plane (10) 5 Eastern Siberia and Chukotka (6) 6 Greenland (1) 7 Antarctica (1) 8 Mongolia (2) and North China (2) 9 Brazil (1) 10 South Africa (2)11 Australia (1)

1

-6-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8

-13-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-12-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-9-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-10-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-11-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-8-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-9-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-9-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-12-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3

-10-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-12-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-7.4-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8

-8.6-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-5.2-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

-5.7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16

-3-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-11-9-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-11-14-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-15-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-5.5-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-5-5-5.2-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-7-7-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-12-12-12-1-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-10-10-10-8-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-11-11-11-7-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-6-6-8-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-6-10-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-12-12-12-5-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-12-12-12-6-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-9-9-9-7-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-8-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14

-14-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14-14

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-4-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-12-12-12-12-14-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-8-8-8-8-11-8-8-8-8-8-8-8

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-10-5-5-5-5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-9.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2.5-2-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-5.5-2-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-5.5-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1.8-2-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-3

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-9

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-10

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-6

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-7

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

1

-11-11

-9-12

-5-10

-5-11

-3-12

-5-10

-5-7

-7-17

-7-17

-10-8

-12-1

-11-7

-13-14

-6-10

-12-5

-12-6

-11-9

-11-14

-9-7

-6-15

-8-7

-2-5.5

-10-8.6

-6-5.5

-5-5.2

-8.5-5.2

-5-5.7

-4-4

-2-5.5

-2-2.5

-3-4

-7-9

-2.5-3

-9-9

-2-1.8

-5.5-9.5

-2-5

-18-20

-5.5-5.5

-16-16

-5-16.8

-5-19.8

-15-3.5

-11-6

-8-10

&A

&P

2

1234567891011

.-11-11

-9-12

49.11-8-7.4

48.21-10-8.6

48.12-8.5-5.2

43,5,-1,5-5-5.7

46,8,5,8-9-9

-5-7

-16-16

.-2.5-3

..-7-17

-7-17

-11-9

-11-14

--6-15

- ,-6-5.5

-5-5.2

-4-4

-7-9

-12-1

,-10-8

-11-7

.-6-8

.-6-10

-12-5

-12-6

-9-7

-9-8

-14-8

-14-8

-9-11

-9-11

-9-4

-12-14

-8-11

-20-18

-5.5-5.5

-5-10

-5-5

-5.5-9.5

-2-2.5

, -2-5.5

-2-1.8

-3-4

&A

&P

2

-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-12-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-7.4-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8

-8.6-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-5.2-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

-5.7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16

-3-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-11-9-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-11-14-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-15-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-5.5-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-5-5-5.2-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-7-7-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-12-12-12-1-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-10-10-10-8-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-11-11-11-7-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-6-6-8-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-6-10-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-12-12-12-5-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-12-12-12-6-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-9-9-9-7-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-8-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14

-14-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14-14

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-4-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-12-12-12-12-14-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-8-8-8-8-11-8-8-8-8-8-8-8

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-10-5-5-5-5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-9.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2.5-2-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-5.5-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1.8-2-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-3

&A

&P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

PMIP simulated data

data of reconstruction

data-model comparison of annual temperature anomalies (21 ka BP mines present day)

3

-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-12-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-7.4-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8-8

-8.6-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-5.2-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

-5.7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16

-3-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-11-9-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-11-14-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-15-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-5.5-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-5-5-5.2-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-7-7-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-12-12-12-1-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-10-10-10-8-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-11-11-11-7-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-6-6-8-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-6-10-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-12-12-12-5-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-12-12-12-6-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-9-9-9-7-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-8-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14-14

-14-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-4-9-9-9-9-9-9

-12-12-12-12-14-12-12-12-12-12-12

-8-8-8-8-11-8-8-8-8-8-8

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-10-5-5-5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-9.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2.5-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-5.5-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1.8-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

model

data

4

1234567891011

.10-8.4-8.5

EEPlcent5-11-11.5

- 4-5.5-5.9

9-10.1-7.5

6-10-10

1-20-18

1-5.5-5.5

3-5.2-8.2

1-2-4

, 2-2-3.7

1-3-4

&A

&P

4

-8.5-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4

-11-11.5-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-5.5-5.5-5.9-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-10.1-10.1-10.1-7.5-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1

-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-8.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-4-2-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3.7-2-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-3

&A

&P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

PMIP simulated data

reconstructed data

data-model comparison of annual temperature averaged anomalies

5

-8.5-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4

-11-11.5-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-5.5-5.5-5.9-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-10.1-10.1-10.1-7.5-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1

-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-8.2-5.2-5.2-5.2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-4-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3.7-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

model

data

2 (2)

&A

&P

6

&A

&P

7

123456789101112

-8-6

-6-13

-6-12

-6-6

-5-9

-5-10

-5-11

-4-8

-4-9

-4-9

-3-12

-4-10

.-11-11

-9-12

49.11-8-7.4

48.21-10-8.6

48.12-8.5-5.2

43,5,-1,5-5-5.7

46,8,5,8-9-9

-5-7

-16-16

.-2.5-3

..-7-17

-7-17

-11-9

-11-14

--6-15

- ,-6-5.5

-5-5.2

-4-4

-7-9

-12-1

,-10-8

-11-7

.-6-8

.-6-10

-12-5

-12-6

-9-7

-9-8

-14-8

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-9-11

-9-4

-12-14

-8-11

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-5-5

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""-2-2.5

-2-5.5

, -2-5.5

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&A

&P

7

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&A

&P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

PMIP simulated data



8

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

model

data

9

&A

&P

10

&A

&P

11

&A

&P

12

&A

&P

13

&A

&P

14

&A

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15

&A

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16

&A

&P

&A

&P

&A

&P

&A

&P

2

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-11-11.5-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-5.5-5.5-5.9-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-10.1-10.1-10.1-7.5-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1

-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-8.2-5.2-5.2-5.2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-4-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3.7-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1

-11-11

-9-12

-5-10

-5-11

-3-12

-5-10

-5-7

-7-17

-7-17

-10-8

-12-1

-11-7

-13-14

-6-10

-12-5

-12-6

-11-9

-11-14

-9-7

-6-15

-8-7

-2-5.5

-10-8.6

-6-5.5

-5-5.2

-8.5-5.2

-5-5.7

-4-4

-2-5.5

-2-2.5

-3-4

-7-9

-2.5-3

-9-9

-2-1.8

-5.5-9.5

-2-5

-18-20

-5.5-5.5

-16-16

-5-16.8

-5-19.8

-15-3.5

-11-6

-8-10

&A

&P

2

1234567891011

.-11-11

-9-12

49.11-8-7.4

48.21-10-8.6

48.12-8.5-5.2

43,5,-1,5-5-5.7

46,8,5,8-9-9

-5-7

-16-16

.-2.5-3

..-7-17

-7-17

-11-9

-11-14

--6-15

- ,-6-5.5

-5-5.2

-4-4

-7-9

-12-1

,-10-8

-11-7

.-6-8

.-6-10

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-9-8

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-14-8

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-5.5-5.5

-5-10

-5-5

-5.5-9.5

-2-2.5

, -2-5.5

-2-1.8

-3-4

&A

&P

2

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-8.6-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-5.2-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5-8.5

-5.7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-7-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16-16

-3-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5-2.5

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-7-17-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-11-9-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-11-14-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-15-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-5.5-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-5-5-5.2-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4-4

-7-7-9-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7-7

-12-12-12-1-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-10-10-10-8-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-11-11-11-7-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-6-6-6-8-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-6-6-6-10-6-6-6-6-6-6-6-6

-12-12-12-5-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-12-12-12-6-12-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-9-9-9-7-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-8-9-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14-14-14

-14-14-14-14-8-14-14-14-14-14-14-14

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-11-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-9-9-9-9-4-9-9-9-9-9-9-9

-12-12-12-12-14-12-12-12-12-12-12-12

-8-8-8-8-11-8-8-8-8-8-8-8

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-10-5-5-5-5

-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5-5

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-9.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2.5-2-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-5.5-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-1.8-2-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-3

&A

&P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

PMIP simulated data



3

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

model

data

4

1234567891011

.10-8.4-8.5

EEPlcent5-11-11.5

- 4-5.5-5.9

9-10.1-7.5

6-10-10

1-20-18

1-5.5-5.5

3-5.2-8.2

1-2-4

, 2-2-3.7

1-3-4

&A

&P

4

-8.5-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4-8.4

-11-11.5-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11-11

-5.5-5.5-5.9-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-10.1-10.1-10.1-7.5-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1-10.1

-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10-10

-20-20-20-20-20-18-20-20-20-20-20-20

-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5-5.5

-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-8.2-5.2-5.2-5.2-5.2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-4-2-2-2

-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-2-3.7-2-2

-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-3-4-3

&A

&P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

PMIP simulated data

reconstructed data

data-model comparison of annual temperature averaged anomalies

5

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

2 (2)

&A

&P

6

&A

&P

7

123456789101112

-8-6

-6-13

-6-12

-6-6

-5-9

-5-10

-5-11

-4-8

-4-9

-4-9

-3-12

-4-10

.-11-11

-9-12

49.11-8-7.4

48.21-10-8.6

48.12-8.5-5.2

43,5,-1,5-5-5.7

46,8,5,8-9-9

-5-7

-16-16

.-2.5-3

..-7-17

-7-17

-11-9

-11-14

--6-15

- ,-6-5.5

-5-5.2

-4-4

-7-9

-12-1

,-10-8

-11-7

.-6-8

.-6-10

-12-5

-12-6

-9-7

-9-8

-14-8

-14-8

-9-11

-9-11

-9-4

-12-14

-8-11

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-5.5-5.5

-5-10

-5-5

-5.5-9.5

""-2-2.5

-2-5.5

, -2-5.5

-2-1.8

-3-4

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&A

&P

7

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&A

&P

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

PMIP simulated data



8

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1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

model

data

9

&A

&P

10

&A

&P

11

&A

&P

12

&A

&P

13

&A

&P

14

&A

&P

15

&A

&P

16

&A

&P

&A

&P

&A

&P

&A

&P

PMIP: 6 .

6 . 2 -

PMIP 6 . (0)(/)

2

0.91.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.3

0.60.80.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.60.6

1.61.61.11.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.6

1.51.51.50.71.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.5

1.81.81.81.82.51.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.8

1.41.41.41.41.40.61.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.4

1.61.61.61.61.61.61.21.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.61.6

1.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.11.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.7

1.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.3

0.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.800.80.80.80.80.80.80.80.8

1.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.91.81.81.81.81.81.81.8

2.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.12.11.82.12.12.12.12.12.1

1.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.81.61.81.81.81.81.8

0.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.90.900.90.90.90.9

1.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.71.41.71.71.7

1.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.51.41.51.5

1.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.40.51.4

1.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.41.40.4

bmrc

2.0

ccm1

ccsr1

cnrm2

csiro

echam3

gen2

gfdl

giss

lmcelmd4

lmcelmd5

mri2

msu

ugamp

uiuc11

ukmo

yonu

(40-150E; 30-60N)

(70-100E; 20-40N), /

PMIP

1 (2)


djf-6.1-6-6.1-4.6-4.3-2-4.6-4.2-5.4

jja-6.1-6.1-4.4-3.5-3.8-2-4.6-3.6-4.2

year-6.1-6.05-5.8-4-4-2-4.6-3.9-4.8

1 (2)

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

djf

jja

year

0C

1


djf-3.9-4.3-4-4.4-2.9-3.1-3-2.8-3.6

jja-4.2-5-4.2-3.9-4.1-3.3-4-3-3.8

year-4.1-4.7-4.1-4.2-3.3-3.2-3.5-2.9-3.7

1

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

000

djf

jja

year

0C

2

bmrc2.0ccm1ccsr1cnrm2csiroecham3gen2gfdlgisslmcelmd4lmcelmd5mri2msuugampuiuc11ukmoyonu

1.30.9

0.60.8

1.61.1

1.50.7

1.82.5

1.40.6

1.61.2

1.71.1

1.31.3

0.80

1.81.9

2.11.8

1.81.6

0.90

1.71.4

1.51.4

1.40.5

1.40.4

2

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lmcelmd4

lmcelmd5

mri2

msu

ugamp

uiuc11

ukmo

yonu

air temperature (40-150E; 30-60N), 0C

precipitation (70-100E; 20-40N), mm/day

3

(6 0 . , PMIP)/ .

Ea.Pl. S.Lett. 211 (2003) 371-380a,b ( ),d IRD (ice-rafted debris events); 0 YD

12000 ()

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_1050690847.doc

8.2 . : D-O ?

. - :-, (-)-, , , (-) () , ()

1500 1.5 . ? !

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Documents

Моделирование палеоклиматов с целью изучения механизмов формирования климатических изменений