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Into a warming worldWMO UNEP


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The Intergovernmental panelon climate change:

Science at the service

of policy-making


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1. Experts review the first draft of the report

2. Governments and experts review the seconddraft of the report and the draft Summary forPolicymakers

3. Governments review word-by-word therevised draft Summary for Policymakers

Writing and review process

of the IPCC assessment reports


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+2500 scientific expert reviewers

800 contributing authors

450 lead authors

+130 countries

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report(2007)


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References to the IPCC Fourth AssessmentReport in the Bali Action Plan (December 2007)

Responding to the findings of the Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that warming of theclimate system is unequivocal, and thatdelay in reducing emissionssignificantly constrains opportunities to achieve lower stabilizationlevels and increases the risk of more severe climate change impacts

[] urgent and immediate needs of developing countries that areparticularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change,especially the least developed countries and small island developingStates, and further taking into account the needs of countries in Africaaffected by drought, desertification and floods

[] emphasizing the urgency to address climate change as indicatedin the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel onClimate Change


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Key findings of the IPCCFourth Assessment Report:

1. Warming of the climate

system is unequivocal


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Observed changes

Global averagesea level

Northern hemispheresnow cover

Global averagetemperature


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Global temperature change

1900 1950 2000

Year

1

0.5

0

Models using onlynatural forcing

Models using bothnatural and

anthropogenic forcing

Observations


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The frequency of heavy precipitation events hasincreased over most land areas

- Rainfall in Mumbai (India), 2005:1 million people lost their homes


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Heat waves have become more frequentover most land areas

- Heat wave in Europe, 2003: 35 000 deaths


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Intense tropical cyclone activity has increasedin the North Atlantic since about 1970

- Hurricane Katrina, 2005: up to $200 billion cost estimate


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More intense and longer droughts have beenobserved over wider areas since the 1970s,particularly in the tropics and subtropics

Photocredit:GoodPlanet


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Key findings of the IPCC

Fourth Assessment Report:

2. Continued GHG emissions [...] wouldinduce many changes in the global climatesystem during the 21st century that would

very likely be larger than those observedduring the 20th century


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Carbon dioxide emissions

10000 5000 0

Time (before 2005)

-2

Global atmospheric

concentrations of

greenhouse gases (GHG)

increased markedly as a

result of human activities,

with an increase

of70% in 1970-2004

U.S. emissions have risen

by 14.7% in 1990-2006*

*Source: EPA, 2008


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Projected surface temperature changes(2090-2099 relative to 1980-1999)

Continued emissions would lead to further warming

of 1.1C to 6.4C over the 21st century

0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7 7.5 (oC)


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0 1 2 3 4 5o

WATER

Increased water availability in moist tropics and high latitudes

Decreasing water availability and increasing drought in mid-latitudes and semi-arid low latitudes

Hundreds of millions of people exposed to increased water stress

ECO-

SYSTEMS

Increased coral bleaching Most corals bleached Widespread coral mortality

Terrestrial biosphere tends towards a net carbon source as:15% 40% of ecosystems affected

Increasing species range shifts and wildfire risk

Ecosystem changes due to weakening of the meridionaloverturning circulation

FOOD

Complex, localised negative impacts on small holders, subsistence farmers and fishers

Tendencies for cereal productivity Productivity of all cerealsto decrease in low latitudes decreases in low latitudes

Tendencies for some cereal productivity Cereal productivity to decrease in

to increase at mid- to high latitudes some regions

COASTS

Increased damage from floods and storms

About 30% of global coastal wetlands lost

Millions more people experience coastal flooding each year

HEALTH

Increasing burden from malnutrition, diarrhoeal, cardio-respiratory, infectious diseases

Increased morbidity and mortality from heat waves, floods, droughts

Changed distribution of some disease vectors

Examples of impacts associated with

global average temperature change relative to 1980-1999


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Coastal communities and habitats will beincreasingly stressed by climate change impacts

interacting with development and pollution

Warming in western mountains is projected tocause decreased snowpack and reduced summer

flows, exacerbating competition for over-allocated

water resources

Increased number, intensity and duration of

heatwaves will have potential for adversehealth impacts

Impacts on North America


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People exposed to increased water stress by 2020: 120 million to 1.2 billion in Asia 12 to 81 million in Latin America 75 to 250 million in Africa

Expected impacts on poor regions

Possible yield reduction in agriculture:

30% by 2050 in Central and South Asia

30% by 2080 in Latin America 50% by 2020 in some African countries

Crop revenues could fall by 90% by 2100 in Africa


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3. Neither adaptation nor mitigation

alone can avoid all climate changeimpacts; however, they cancomplement each other and

together can significantly reduce therisks of climate change


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Stabilisation scenarios

3.2 4.0

2.8 3.2

2.4 2.8

2.0 2.4

Global mean

temp. increase

(C)

2020 2060590 710

2010 2030535 590

2000 2020490 535

2000 2015445 490

Year CO2 needs

to peak

Stabilization

level

(ppm CO2-eq)


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Mitigation measures would induce 0.6% gain

to 3% decrease of GDP in 2030

Stabilisation

levels

(ppm CO2-eq)

Range of GDP

reduction

(%)

Reduction ofaverage annual

GDP growth

rates

(percentage pts)

445 - 535 < 3 < 0.12

535 - 590 0.2 2.5 < 0.1

590 - 710 -0.6 1.2 < 0.06

Costs of mitigation in 2030


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GDP withoutmitigation

GDP with

stringentmitigation

2030

GDP

TimeCurrent

Mitigation wouldpostpone GDP

growth by one yearat most over themedium term

Cost of mitigation

in 2030: max 3%of global GDP

Impacts of mitigation on GDP growth(for stabilisation scenario of 445-535 ppm CO2-eq)

Schematic ra h


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Healthco-benefits from reduced air pollution

Increased energysecurity

Increased agriculturalproduction and reducedpressure on natural ecosystems

More rural employment

Co-benefits of mitigation

Co-benefits provide the opportunity for

no-regrets policies and reduce mitigation costs


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4. There is substantial [] potential for

the mitigation of global GHGemissions over the coming decades

that could [] reduce emissions

below current levels


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All stabilisation levels assessed

can be achieved by deployment of a portfoliooftechnologies that are currently available or

expected to be commercialised

in coming decades

This assumes appropriate andeffective incentives are in place for

their development, acquisition,deployment and diffusion


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Regulations and standards

Appropriate energy infrastructure investments

Research, development and demonstration

Key mitigation instruments,

policies & practices

Effective carbon-price signal

Taxes and charges

Change in lifestyles & consumption patterns


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Barack Obamas

New Energy for America plan (2008)

Create 5 million new green jobs by investing$150 billion over the next 10 years

Ensure 10% of electricity comes from renewablesources by 2012, and 25% by 2025

Get 1 million hybrid cars on the road by 2015

Implement an economy-wide cap-and-trade programto reduce greenhouse gas emissions 80% by 2050


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enable the achievement of globalstabilisation targets

US action on mitigation would:

ensure US competitiveness in a worldmarket dominated by low-carbon products

re-establish confidence in US leadershipon critical global issues

The need for US involvement


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Man did not weave the web of life,he is merely a strand in it.

Whatever he does to the web,he does to himself.

Chief Seattle, 1854

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