Quan Tri Du an

PHN HIU I HC NNG TI KON TUM

CNG MN HC

QUN TR D N

NM HC: 2010 - 2011

(Lu hnh ni b)

Phn hiu i hc Nng ti Kon Tum

- 1 -

1- THNG TIN CHUNG V MN HC

1.1 TN MN HC: QUN TR D N

1.2 M MN HC:

1.3 TRNH : I HC

1.4 NGNH/CHUYN NGNH: QUN TR KINH DOANH

1.5 S N V HC TRNH: 4

- Gi hc l thuyt: 35 tit

- Gi bi tp: 15 tit

- Thuyt trnh: 10 tit

2- YU CU I VI MN HC

2.1 IU KIN TIN QUYT

- Ton cn bn: bit nhn dng hm s, v th, gii phng trnh, l thuyt xc sut

thng k, phng php nh lng trong kinh t.

- Kinh t - x hi: Nhng thng tin lin quan n mi trng u t v m, hnh lang

php l v u t v qun l nh nc v u t, quy nh v hng dn v thm nh,

qun l, gim st, t vn d n, cc hng dn v qun l chi ph, cht lng, cc

thng tin v mt s d n trong cc lnh vc khc nhau

2.2 CC YU CU KHC

Nu sinh vin c c cc kin thc v lp v thm nh d n hoc phn tch d

n th vic tip cn mn hc Qun tr d n s cng d dng v thun li hn

3- M T MN HC V MC TIU

3.1 Mc tiu

Trang b cho sinh vin nhng kin thc cn bn v qun tr d n, t khi bt u

cho n khi kt thc d n. Trong giai on khi xng d n bao gm cc vn nh

xem xt nh gi la chn d n, thit k t chc d n. Trong giai on t chc

thc hin d n bao gm vic lp k hoch, c tnh ngn sch, lp tin d n, phn

b ngun lc, gim st v kim sot qu trnh thc hin d n. V giai on cui cng

l kt thc d n.

Sau khi hc mn ny sinh vin s t c nhng kin thc v k nng sau:

- Nm c c s l lun v cc ni dung c bn ca qun tr d n

- Trong vai tr nh qun tr d n, bit cch nh gi v chn la d n mang

li li ch cao

- Bit cch t chc c cu b my, nm c cc yu cu v t cht ca gim

c d n, nguyn tc lnh o v xy dng i ng d n

- Bit cch lp k hoch, c tnh ngn sch, lp tin , v xem xt phn b

ngun lc thc hin d n


- 2 -

- Nm c cch thc v ni dung gim st, kim sot d n. Nm c cc

vn v qun tr ri ro v hp ng d n.

- Hiu c vic kt thc mt cch thnh cng d n

3.2 i tng nghin cu ca mn hc

o Qun tr d n l mn khoa hc kinh t nghin cu nhng vn phng php

lun v phng php c th v thit lp, nh gi v qun l cc d n.

3.3 Nhim v ca mn hc

- Lm r phng php lun v nhng phng php qun l khoa hc p dng trong

vic thit lp v qun l d n.

- Lm r ni dung v c s khoa hc ca vic xc nh i tng, phng php qun

l nhng yu t c bn trong QLDA: Kt qu, thi gian, ngun lc thc hin d n.

- Lm r c s khoa hc v iu kin p dng cc m hnh t chc, kim sot v

nh gi d n, qun l ri ro d n.

4- PHNG PHP GING DY

Phng php ging dy ca mn hc l ging l thuyt kt hp vi lm bi tp,

thc hnh trn my tnh v tho lun cc tnh hung c th. Sinh vin d gi ging,

lm y bi tp, tham gia tho lun tnh hung th s d dng nm bt c nhng

vn c lin quan n ni dung mn hc.

5- NH GI KT QU HC TP

- Bi tp, tho lun, kim tra trong qu trnh hc: 20% tng im

- Thuyt trnh: 20% s im

- Bi thi ht mn: 60% tng im.

- Thi gian lm bi l 90 - 120 pht.

6- KT CU CHNG TRNH CHNG NI DUNG S TIT

Chng 1

TNG QUAN V QUN

TR D N

- Gii thiu mn hc. Gii

thiu ti liu. Hng dn

cch hc, cch lm vic

- Gii thiu cc khi nim c

bn v d n v qun tr d

n, cc ni dung v qu trnh

qun tr d n

- sinh vin nghin cu tnh

hung v tho lun

* Tm tt li kn thc ct li

ca chng

Chng 2 - Cung cp cho sinh vin


- 3 -

XY DNG V LA

CHN D N

kin thc :

+ Mc tiu v ni dung ca

vic la chn d n.

+ Hiu v bit cch p dng

cc Phng php phn tch

nh lng, nh tnh v

phn tch ri ro la chn

mt d n c hiu qu v li

ch cao

+ Bi tp v la chn d n

+ Sinh vin nghin cu tnh

hung


ca chng

Chng 3 PHN TCH TI

CHNH D N U T

- Cung cp cho sinh vin

kin thc:

+ Cc quan im phn tch

ti chnh

+ Xc nh tng mc u t

ca d n

+ Lp bo co ti chnh d

n v xc nh ngn lu d

n

+ D tr nhng ri ro bt

trc c th xy ra i vi d

n

+nh gi an ton v mt

ti chnh ca d n

+ Bi tp ln th nht:

Thm nh d n u t

Chng 4

M HNH T CHC D

N V NH QUN TR

D N


kin thc:

+ Vai tr v trch nghim,

phm cht ca nh qun tr

d n

+ Gii thiu cc m hnh t


- 4 -

chc ca d n

+ Tho lun v thuyt trnh


ca chng

Chng 5

LP K HOCH V

NGN SCH THC HIN

D N


kin thc:

+ Cch lp k hoch thc

hin d n

+ Lp ngn sch thc hin

d n (WBS)

+ Phng php qun l

nhm lp k hoch, kim

sot vic thc hin k hoch

chi ph trong qu trnh thc

hin d n


ca chng

Chng 6

LP K HOCH TIN

THC HIN D N


kin thc:

+ Cc vn v lp tin

d n

+ Bit lp tin Gantt, S

mng, S PERT/CPM

+ Qun tr ri ro thi gian

thc hin d n (GAUSS,

QHTT)

- Bi tp v lp tin d n


ca chng

Chng 7

PHN PHI V IU

PHI NGUN LC D

N


kin thc:

+ Phn b ngun lc thc

hin d n

+ iu phi ngun lc d

n: S PERT ci tin;

Biu ph ti ngun lc


ca chng

Chng 8

QUN L CHI PH THC

- Cung cp kin thc:

+ Cc loi chi ph thc


- 5 -

HIN D N hin d n

+ Lp k hoch chi ph

cc tiu

+ Kim sot chi ph thc

hin d n

+ Bi tp ln th 2: Qun

tr d n (chng 4, 5, 6, 7,

8)


ca chng

CHNG 9

QUN TR CHT LNG

D N

- Cung cp cho sinh

vin kin thc

+ Tng quan v cht lng

+ S tng ng gia qun

tr cht lng v qun tr d

n

+ Cc tin trnh qun l cht

lng trong d n: Hoch

nh cht lng, m bo

cht lng v kim sot cht

lng.

+ Cng c, chi ph v kt

qu ca tin trnh kim sot

cht lng

CHNG 10

QUN TR RI RO D

N


kin thc:

+ Cc vn v ri ro d

n,

+ Ni dung, phng php

v qu trnh qun tr ri ro

d n

CHNG 11

KIM SOT D N

Hiu c nguyn tc,

phng php v cng c

kim sot d n


- 6 -

CHNG 12

KT THC D N


kin thc:

+ cch thc v cng c

kt thc mt d n tt p

+ n tp cho sinh vin

Thc hnh trn my tnh S dng phn mn Project

trong qun tr d n

Thuyt trnh Tng hp kin thc v rn

luyn k nng thuyt trnh

ca sinh vin

7- TI LIU HC TP

+ Slide trn lp

+ Bi gng Word cung cp cho sinh vin

+ H thng bi tp cung cp cho snh vin

+ a cc ti liu tham kho khc cho sinh vin photo v h thng ti liu tham kho

mc 8

8- TI LIU THAM KHO [1] PGS-TS Nguyn Trng Sn, Bi ging Qun tr d n u t (2009), H N

[2] MBA trong tm tay, Chuyn Qun l d n NXB Tng hp TP HCM nm 2009.

[3] TS T Quang Phng, Qun tr d n (2006), i hc KTQD H Ni NXB Lao ng X hi

[4] PGS.TS V Cng Tun, Qun tr d n (2010), NXB Thng k

[5] TS Phm Th H, Bi ging Qun tr d n (2008), H KT HCM

[6] GS.TS - NSUT Bi Xun Phong, Bi ging Qun tr d n u t (2006), H Ni

[7] TS o Hu Ha, Bi ging Qun tr d n u t (2009), H N

[8] TS Nguyn Thanh Lim, TS.on Thi Lin Hng, ThS Nguyn Vn Long, Qun tr d n u t

(2009), NXB Nng

[9] TS L Dn ,Gio trnh Phng php nh lng trong kinh t (2009), NXB Nng.

[11] TS Nguyn Th Bch Nguyt; TS T Quang Phng, Gio trnh Kinh t u t,(2007), NXB

HKTQD

[12] TS Nguyn Th Bch Nguyt, Gio trinh Lp d n u t (2008) NXBHKTQD

[13] TS Phm Th H, TS Nguyn Quang Thu, Thit lp v Thm nh d n u t (2007), NXB

Thng k

[14] Vin ngn hng th gii k, Phn tch Kinh t cc hot ng u t (2007), NXB Vn ho

Thng tin


- 7 -

[15] TS Nguyn Xun Thu; TS ng Th Thanh Phng; TS Nguyn Vit nh, Gio trnh Phn tch

nh lng trong qun tr (2005), NXB Thng k

[16] Cc phng php s mng trong xy dng, NXB Xy dng H Ni

[17] TS inh Th Hin, Lp v Thm nh d n u t (2005), NXB Xy dng

[18] Ngn hng pht trin Chu ADB (1998), Sch hng dn Qun l thc hin d n.

[]

9- MT S CH BN LUN - THUYT TRNH

S c cung cp cho sinh vin sau mi chng hc


- 1 -

CHNG 1 TNG QUAN V QUN TR D N

I. D N (Project)

1. nh ngha (Modifine)

- D n u t l t bo c bn ca hot ng u t. l mt tp hp cc bin

php c cn c khoa hc v c s php l c xut v cc mt k thut, cng

ngh, t chc sn xut, ti chnh, kinh t v x hi lm c s cho vic quyt nh b

vn u t vi hiu qu ti chnh em li cho doanh nghip v hiu qu kinh t - x

hi em li cho quc gia v x hi ln nht c th c.

- Theo lut u t nm 2005: D n u t l tp hp cc xut b vn trung

v di hn tin hnh cc hot ng u t trn a bn c th, trong khong thi

gian xc nh

- Theo Ngn hng th gii (WB): D n l tng th cc chnh sch, hot ng

v chi ph lin quan vi nhau c hoch nh nhm t c nhng mc tiu no

trong mt thi gian nht nh

- D n u t c th c xem xt t nhiu gc :

+ V mt hnh thc: D n u t l mt tp h s ti liu trnh by mt cch chi

tit v c h thng cc hot ng v chi ph theo mt k hoch nhm t c nhng

kt qu v thc hin c nhng mc tiu nht nh trong tng lai.

+ Xt trn gc qun l: D n u t l mt cng c qun l vic s dng vn,

vt t lao ng, to ra cc kt qu ti chnh, kinh t x hi trong mt thi gian di.

+ Xt trn gc k hoch ho: d n u t l mt cng c th hin k hoch

chi tit ca mt cng cuc u t sn xut kinh doanh, pht trin kinh t x hi, lm

tin cho cc quyt nh u t v ti tr. Xt gc ny d n u t l mt hot

ng kinh t ring bit nh nht trong cng tc k hoch ho nn kinh t ni chung

(mt n v sn xut kinh doanh cng mt thi k c th thc hin nhiu d n).

+ Xt v mt ni dung: D n u t l tng th cc hot ng v chi ph cn

thit, c b tr theo mt k hoch cht ch vi lch thi gian v a im xc nh

to mi, m rng hoc ci to nhng c s vt cht nht nh nhm thc hin nhng

mc tiu nht nh trong tng lai.


- 2 -

2. Cc c tnh c bn ca d n

- D n c mc ch, kt qu r rng

Tt c cc d n thnh cng u phi c kt qu c xc nh r rng nh mt

to nh chung c, mt h thng mng c quan, mt h thng mng cp truyn

hnhMi d n bao gm tp hp cc nhim v cn thc hin, mi nhim v c th

ny khi thc hin s thu c kt qu c lp v tp hp cc kt qu to thnh kt

qu chung ca d n. Cc kt qu ny c th theo di, nh gi bng h thng cc tiu

ch r rng. Ni cch khc, d n bao gm nhiu hp phn khc nhau c qun l,

thc hin trn c s m bo thng nht cc ch tiu v thi gian, ngun lc (chi ph)

v cht lng. m bo cho mi cng cuc u t c tin hnh thun li, t

c mc tiu mong mun, em li hiu qu kinh t x hi cao th trc khi b vn

phi lm tt cng tc chun b. C ngha l phi xem xt, tnh ton ton din cc kha

cnh th trng, kinh t k thut ti chnh, iu kin t nhin, mi trng x hi, php

l c lin quan n qu trnh thc hin u t n s pht huy tc dng v hiu qu

t c ca cng cuc u t: Phi d on c cc yu t bt nh (s xy ra trong

qu trnh k t khi thc hin u t cho n khi kt thc hot ng ca d n) c nh

hng n s thnh bi ca cng cuc u t. Mi s xem xt, tnh ton v chun b

ny c th hin trong vic son tho cc d n u t (lp d n u t), c ngha l

u t phi c thc hin theo mt d n c son tho vi cht lng tt.

- Thi gian tn ti ca d n c tnh hu hn: D n l mt s sng to

Ging nh cc thc th sng, d n cng tri qua cc giai on: Hnh thnh, pht

trin v kt thc hon thnh. N khng ko di mi mi, khi d n kt thc hon

thnh, kt qu d n c chuyn giao, a vo khai thc s dng, t chc d n gii

tn.

- Sn phm, kt qu ca d n mang tnh c o, mi l

Khc vi cc qu trnh sn xut lin tc, c tnh dy chuyn, lp i lp li, kt

qu ca d n khng phi l sn phm sn xut hng lot, m c tnh mi, th hin sc

sng to ca con ngi. Do , sn phm v dch v thu c t d n l duy nht,

hu nh khc bit so vi cc sn phm cng loi. Tuy nhin, trong nhiu d n, tnh

duy nht thng kh nhn ra. V vy, mi d n cn phi to ra nhng gi tr mi

chng hn thit k khc nhau, mi trng trin khai khc nhau, i tng s dng

khc nhauT cho thy nu 2 d n hon ton ging nhau v khng to c gi


- 3 -

tr no mi, n th hin c s u t trng lp, gy lng ph, y l tnh trng ph bin

ca cc d n ni chung

- D n lin quan n nhiu bn

D n no cng c s tham gia ca nhiu bn hu quan nh nh ti tr (ch u

t), khch hng (n v th hng), cc nh t vn, nh thu (n v thi cng, xy

dng) v trong nhiu trng hp c c c quan qun l nh nc i vi cc d n s

dng ngun vn c ngun gc t ngn sch nh nc. Tu theo tnh cht ca d n v

yu cu ca nh ti tr m s tham gia ca cc thnh phn trn c s khc nhau.

thc hin thnh cng mc tiu ca d n, cc nh qun l d n cn duy tr thng

xuyn mi quan h vi cc b phn qun l khc.

- D n thng din ra trong mt mi trng hot ng phc tp

+ Vi nhiu mc ch, i hi s khc bit v i khi tri ngc nhau

+ C mi lin h a dng v phc tp

+ Cha ng nhiu tnh bt n, gp nhiu ri ro

+ Lun tn ti mu thun v s cng thng

3. Phn bit chng trnh d n nhim v

- Chng trnh l mt k hoch di hn bao gm nhiu d n

V d chng trnh pht trin nng nghip ca quc gia bao gm cc d n nh nghin

cu ging cy trng vt nui, thy li, chn nui gia sc gia cm, ch bin cc sn

phm t nguyn liu nng nghip

- D n l mt qu trnh bao gm cng tc, nhim v c lin quan vi nhau c

thc hin nhm t c mc tiu ra trong iu kin rng buc v ngn sch,

thi gian v ngun lc

- Nhim v l nhng n lc trong ngn hn (ngy, tun, thng) c thc hin

bi mt c nhn hay mt nhm ngi, mt t chc no . Cc nhim v ny c lin

quan vi nhau thc hin mt d n

So snh d n vi cng vic thng nht

D N CNG VIC THNG NGY

iu ngoi l ca cc chc nng thng thng

c nh r trong hot ng ca phng ban

Cc hot ng lin quan cht ch vi nhau

Cc hot ng khng hoc t lin quan


- 4 -

Mc tiu v thi hn cui cng c th Mc tiu v thi hn cui cng khng c th

Kt qu mong mun c nh r Kt qu mong mun khng c nh r

... ...

S khc nhau gia qun l sn xut v qun l d n

Qun l sn xut Qun l d n

Nhim v c tnh lp li lin tc Nhim v khng c tnh lp li lin tc m c tnh cht mi m.

T l s dng ngun lc thp T l s dng ngun lc cao

Sn xut hng lot Sn xut n chic

Thi gian tn ti ca cc cng ty l lu di Thi gian tn ti ca d n c gii hn

Cc s liu thng k sn c v hu ch i vi vic ra quyt nh

Cc s liu thng k c s dng hn ch trong qun l d n.

Khng qu tn km khi chuc li li lm Phi tr gi t cho cc quyt nh sai lm

T chc theo t nhm l hnh thc ph bin

Nhn s mi cho mi d n

Trch nhim r rng v c iu chnh qua thi gian

Phn chia trch nhim thay i tu thuc vo tnh cht ca tng d n

Mi trng lm vic tng i n nh Mi trng lm vic thng xuyn thay i

4. Cc s phn loi d n

4.1 S nhn dng cc loi d n

- D n x hi: L cc d n ci t h thng ch nh bo him x hi, bo

him y t, an ninh, trt t cho tt c cc tng lp dn c, xa i gim ngho, khc

phc hu qu thin tai

- D n kinh t: L cc d n v c phn ha doanh nghip, t chc h thng u

thu bn u gi cc loi ti sn, xy dng h thng thu mi, pht trin ngnh ngh

mi

- D n t chc: L cc d n v ci t qun l, ci cch hnh chnh, t chc cc

hi ngh quc t, i mi hoc thnh lp cc t chc x hi, cc hi ngh nghip

- D n nghin cu v pht trin: L cc d n nghin cu v sn xut sn phm

mi, cc kt cu xy dng mi, xy dng cc chng trnh phn mm t ng ha,

phn mm ng dng


- 5 -

- D n u t xy dng: L cc cng trnh dn dng, cng trnh cng nghip,

cng trnh cng cng v c s h tng

4.2 Phn loi c bn cc d n trong iu kin chuyn dch c cu kinh t

4.3 S phn loi siu d n

4.4 a d n

Cc chng trnh t chc tng th

Thit k h thng qun l cc d n trong ni

b doanh nghip

Ci t t chc qun l v chin lc pht trin

Thnh lp cc t chc DN mi, cc chin lc pht

trin kinh doanh

Cc t chc doanh nghip hin hu trong dch chuyn c cu kinh t

Cc loi hnh c bn

Cc d n

Cng ngh thng tin

T chc

Kinh t

X hi

Cc chng trnh t hp, phc hp v chuyn ngnh

a phng Lin ngnh Min vng Quc gia Quc t

Hn hp K thut T chc Kinh t X hi

Tp hp cc d n trong iu kin i mi nn kinh t

Siu d n a d n DA thng thng


- 6 -

4.5 S phn loi d n thng thng

5. Vng i d n

Tt c chng ta u tri qua tui gi tui dy th tui trng thnh v ci

cht lc ny hay lc khc

Vi d n bao gi cng vy, cng c im khi u v kt thc. Qu trnh ny c

chia thnh bn giai on:

D n thng thng

Hn hp X hi Kinh t T chc K Thut

T hp Gio dc v o to

Nghin cu v pht trin

i mi u t

Loi hnh d n

Kiu d n

Kt thc DA.

nh v d n mi

nh v d n u

t

Giai on khi u

Giai on hoch nh

Giai on thc hin

d n


- 7 -

- Giai on khi u: Nhu cu c xc nh v c m t, cc nhm tham gia

lm vic c xc nh, i bt u hnh thnh. Cc vn c tnh kh thi (c th thc

hin d n khng?) v s chng minh (c nn thc hin d n khng?) c gii quyt

- Giai on hoch nh: ra chin lc sn xut bt u bng vic nh ngha

cc phn t cng vic bt buc v trnh t tt nht thc hin chng

- Giai on thc hin d n: Mi cng vic quy nh c thc hin di s

gim st cht ch ca nh qun tr d n nh tin thc hin cng vic, cc iu

chnh, cht lng v cc mc tiu t c so vi d kin ban u

- Giai on kt thc d n: Tp trung vo vic xc minh d n d n hoc s

p ng nhu cu ban u nh th no? V mt l tng kt qu cui cng ca giai

on ny l bn giao d n cho khch hng. Khch hng chp nhn v s dng thnh

phm bn giao, gii phng ngun lc, nh gi v rt ra bi hc

6. Mi trng d n

Qu trnh thc hin d n din ra trong mt mi trng lun lun c s thay i

kh lng v v th n nh hng n d n. Qu trnh tc ng ca cc yu t mi

trng n d n c biu din qua s sau:

Giai on 2 LP K HOCH D N

Xc nh LM NH TH

NO K HOCH

D N

Giai on 3 TRIN KHAI K HOCH

D N

Thc hin Kim tra, gim st

KT Qu

Giai on 4 KT THC KT QU

nh gi Nghim thu, Bn giao

BO CO

Giai on 1 KHI S D N TNG DA

Xc nh LM CI G? TUYN B

D N

U VO U RA


- 8 -

Trong :

X l cc yu t

u vo

Y : L cc yu

t u ra

Z: Cc yu t tc ng ca mi trng

7. Tiu chun thnh cng ca d n

7.1 nh ngha v s thnh cng ca d n

nh ngha v s thnh cng ca d n l mt iu hin nhin v rt quan trng.

Tuy nhin mi t chc li c nhng gc nhn nhn khc nhau v cc ni dung trng

yu trong cc kt qu ca d n, v vy c nhiu d n c a ra. Nhng nu chng

ta xem xt nhiu cch khc nhau vi cc d n thnh cng chng ta s d dng nhn

thy thnh cng ca d n tn ti trn 4 cp. V bt k cc gi tr c th no c

dng nh lng s thnh cng hay tht bi ca d n nguyn tc vn khng thay

i

- Cp 1: p ng cc ch ca d n. cp ny cu hi c t ra l d n c

p ng c cc ch ban u v chi ph, lch biu, cht lng v cng nng hay

khng?

- Cp 2: Hiu nng ca d n d n c qun l tt n mc no?

Nu d n p ng c cc ch ca n song cc nhm khc hng, i d n, hoc

nhng ngi khc b tc ng ngc li th tt yu d n khng c coi l thnh

cng.

Hiu nng ca d n c th c c tnh nh dng cc quy chun sau:

+ Mc phn ha i vi cc hot ng ca khch hng

+ Cc ti nguyn c s dng hiu qu ti mc nao?

+ Lng tng trng v pht trin ca cc thnh vin trong i d n

+ Cc mu thun c qun l hiu qu n mc no?

+ Chi ph cho cc chc nng qun tr d n


- 9 -

- Cp 3: Tin ch ca khch hng hoc ngi s dng. c tnh s thnh cng

ca cp ny c tr li theo cc cu hi sau:

+ Vn ban u c c gii quyt hay khng?

+ S gia tng c th xc minh: Doanh thu, thu nhp, li nhun..

+ C tit kim c khon tin nh d kin hay khng?

+ Thc t khch hng c ang s dng sn phm hay khng?

- Cp 4: Ci tin t chc, tc l t chc c hc c g t d n khng i vi

cng tc ca mnh

7.2 Nhng yu t nh hng n vic thc hin thnh cng ca d n

Mt d n c thc hin thnh cng hay khng thng ty thuc vo nhiu yu t

then cht l nng lc c nhn v t chc, mi trng c th (s ng h ca cc nh

qun l cao cp v cc thnh vin quan trng khc c lin quan n d n), s mong

mun (hiu bit, thi , li ch) tt c nhng iu c th hin mt cch chi

tit v c th nh:

+ S mnh ca d n c c xc nh r rng, c c hiu mt cch thu o

v cn k hay khng? C nhn c s cam kt cho vic thc hin d n khng?

+ Thit k d n c y v ph hp vi thc hin d n khng?

+ Nh qun l v cc thnh vin d n

+ Lch trnh thc hin d n

+ S ng h ca cc nh qun tr cp cao nht

+ Phn phi ngun lc: ng, v kp thi theo yu cu

+ Cc knh cung cp thng tin trong qu trnh trin khai d n

+ C ch v cc nguyn tc kim sot d n

+ Kh nng x l cc s c xy ra

+ Phn ng trc cc yu cu ca khch hng

7.3 Cc nguyn nhn dn n s tht bi ca d n

- Khng c s lin kt cht ch gia cc bn c lin quan n d n

- Khng xc nh c nhu cu thc ca d tc khng xc nh c ng vn

cn gii quyt

- Khng ch ra c s khc bit gia mc tiu c th v phng thc tin n

mc tiu


- 10 -

- Phn tch khng y t tng ca d n trc khi quyt nh chuyn sang

giai on nghin cu kh thi

- D n khng nm trong s h tr hp l ca cc c quan c lin quan

II. QUN TR D N (project management)

1. nh ngha

Qun tr d n l hot ng qun tr qu trnh hnh thnh, trin khai v kt thc

d n trong mt mi trng hot ng nht nh vi khng gian v thi gian xc nh

2. Thc cht

- Thc cht qun tr d n c thc hin bi qun tr gia d n (project

manager) trong mt doanh nghip hoc mt t chc

- Hot ng qun tr bao gm

+ Hot ng kim tra: So snh, nh gi v kt lun v kt qu cc qu trnh hot

ng trong d n

+ Hot ng gim st: Theo di, un nn v iu chnh s vn ng ca cc hot

ng trong d n

- c thc hin bi cc bin php qun tr bao gm:

+ Thu thp y cc thng tin qun tr

+ Ra quyt nh qun tr kp thi, chnh xc, hp l trn c s cc thng tin c

xc nh.

3. Lch s qun tr d n

3.1 Thi k c i

- Vn treo Babylon

- Kim T thp Ai Cp (ring kim t thp CHEOPS c thi gian xy dng l 20

nm, cao 138 -227 m, s dng 2 t m3 xy dng.

3.2 Thi k cn i

- 1650: Xut hin Trng d n iu hnh cng vic ca cc th th cng

- 1700: Chc danh kin trc s ra i, nhn v qun tr vic xy dng

- 1800: Nh thu ra i iu hnh vic xy dng, kin trc s thit k v gim

st xy dng

- 1850: Cc kinh t chuyn gia ngnh xy dng xut hin, k s thit k c kh ra

i.


- 11 -

3.3 Thi k hin i

- D n Manhttan (thp nin 30 -40): Nghin cu ch to bom nguyn t M

- 1957: V tinh nhn to u tin ca loi ngi (Lin x c) phng ln qu o

tri t

- 1961: Phi hnh gia v tr u tin ca loi ngi (Lin x c) bay vo v tr

- D n Apollo (thp nin 60 -70)

+ Mc tiu: Pht trin k thut v tr, chy ua v trang vi Lin x c

+ Mc ch: a con ngi t chn ln mt trng ri li a v tri t an ton

+ Thi hn: Hon thnh trc nm 1970

+ Ngun lc: 20.000 t chc (vin nghin cu trng i hc, phng th nghim,

cc doanh nghip)

- D n Euro Tunnel gia Anh v Php

+ Mc tiu:

Gim thi gian i li t lc a Chu u n o quc Anh;

Pht trin k thut giao thng ng sc di y bin

+ Mc ch:

Hin thc ha tng d n gia hai nc t th k 17;

Lm mt ng hm cho xe la chy qua, xuyn bin Manche gia Anh v Php

+ Thi gian:

K hip nh gia hai chnh ph Anh Php nm 1985;

Khi cng xy dng thng 12 1987, hon thnh 28-6-1994;

Chi ph: D ton (50 t France Php), quyt ton (100 t France Php)

- D n sn xut my bay Boeing 777

+ Mc tiu:

Gip cng ty Boeing gi v tr hng u th gii trong sn xut my bay phn lc

hnh khch ng di;

Cnh tranh vi my bay ch khch kiu mi ca lin minh Chu u A340

3.4 Qun tr d n ti Vit Nam

3.4.1 D n nh my thy in Ha Bnh

- D n Nh my thy in Ha Bnh

+ Mc tiu: in kh ha t nc

+ Mc ch:


- 12 -

B sung ngun in cho pha Bc cn thiu, trong thp nin 80;

Xy dng mt thy in c tm c s 1 ng Nam

+ Thi hn:

tng hnh thnh d n (Thp nin 80): Khi cng xy dng nm 1983;

Pht in t my u tin nm 1987

3.4.2 D n ng dy ti in xuyn Vit 500 KV

- D n ng dy ti in xuyn Vit 500KV

+ Mc tiu:

y mnh cng cuc in kh ha, xy dng kt cu h tng k thut;

Gp phn qu trnh y mnh cng nghip ha hin i ha t nc;

Nng cao ch tiu KWh in ngi/nm

+ Mc ch:

Chuyn ti ngun in t Bc vo Nam, khong 3 4 t KWh/nm;

Gii quyt mt phn nn thiu in cc tnh Min Trung, Ty Nguyn v Min

Nam

+ Nhim v:

Dng 3436 tr in, tri qua 13 tnh thnh ph;

Ko di ng dy di 1497 km, xut pht t nh my thy in Ha Bnh ti

trm bin p 500KV, Ph Lm, thnh ph HCM;

Xy 4 trm bin th in v 1 trm b trn ton tuyn

Xy dng Trung tm iu quc gia iu hnh li in ton quc

Bo m cng sut chuyn ti trn ng dy: Khong 600- 800 MW

+ Thi hn:

Ngy 25-2-1992 Th tng Chnh ph k duyt d n

Sau 15 ngy khi cng

Sau 800 ngy Hon thnh cng trnh

+ Chi Ph:

Vn u t 600 triu USD

Nhn lc: Huy ng 20000 cn b, k s, cng nhn, chin s

T chc: c thc hin bi 4 Cng ty xy lp 1,2, 3, 4 thuc B nng lng c

(nay l B cng thng phn Cng theo 4 cng on nh sau):


- 13 -

Cng ty xy lp 1: Thi cng t Nh my Thy in Ha Bnh n Vinh

Cng ty xy lp 4: Thi cng t Vinh n Pleiku

Cng ty xy lp 3: Thi cng t Pleiku n Bun Ma Thuc

Cng ty xy lp 2: Thi cng t Bun Ma Thuc n trm bin p Ph Lm,

Thnh ph HCM

Tr gip k thut ca nc ngoi: Gm 2 Cng ty: NIPPON KOE, PPI/SECVI

(c) Lm t vn cho cng tc nghin cu tin kh thi, nghin cu kh thi, thit k k

thut, thi cng xy dng, nghim thu khi hon cng v theo di vn hnh trong giai

on u

4. Mc tiu ca qun tr d n

4.1 Cc mc tiu thnh phn

C 3 mc tiu thnh phn c bn ca qun tr d n

- Hon thnh cc nhim v hot ng theo yu cu

- Hon thnh cc hot ng v chui hot ng theo ng thi hn quy nh

- Hon thnh hai mc tiu trn vi vic s dng cc ngun lc (nhn lc, ti lc,

vt lc,..) mt cch hp l nht

4.2 Mc tiu tng hp ca nh qun tr

Mc tiu tng hp l kt qu chung cuc khi hon thnh d n vi vic kt hp

hi ha ba mc tiu thnh phn c bn trong qun tr d n

4.3 S mc tiu qun tr d n

Chi ph

Ngun lc

Thi gian hon thnh

Nhim v c th Mc tiu Tng hp


- 14 -

5. Bi tp tnh hung

5.1 bi

Hy xc nh ni dung cc mc tiu thnh phn v tng hp trong qun tr d n

nghin cu c nu di y:

Theo tin t cng ty t vn,thit k giao thng vn ti pha Nam (B giao thng

vn ti) mt phi on gm cc chuyn vin ca Nht s sang TP HCM bn bc

nhng cng vic c lin quan n thnh ph nm trong d n ci to, nng cp tuyn

ng sc Bc Nam

D n nhm rt ngn thi gian chy tu t 36 gi nh hin nay xung cn 24 gii. D

n tp trung nng cp hoc lm mi 9 cu ln, thay ton b ray P30 (ray nh) ang

dng ln loi ray P43 (43kg/1m ray), b tng ha ton b h thng t vt thay v dng

g v st nh hin nay, tng cng dy dm ln 0,25 m (hin nay c ch ch t

0,1 m); hin i ha h thng thng tin, tn hiu iu khin chy tu, nhm bo m

tu c th t c vn tc ti a 120km/ gi. c bit, kinh ph cho ton b d n

nng cp tuyn ng st ny (cu, ng, ga) d tr l 350 triu USD, do Nht ti tr

bng qu OECF (Qu vin tr pht trin ca Nht, thi gian thi cng d n t nm

1996 20001

5.2 Bi gii

1 Bo si gn gii phng, ngy 16-3-1996

Chi ph: 350 triu USD Qu vin tr pht trin ca Nht

Gii hn ti chnh

Thi gian hon thnh

Nhim v Yu cu

Mc tiu tng hp: Rt ngn thi gian chy tu Bc Nam t 36 gi (hin nay) xung 24 gi

Thi gian (tin trnh) Mc tiu qun tr d n

(D n nng cp tuyn ng st H Ni Thnh ph

Nhim v 1.nng cp hoc lm mi 9 cu ln 2.thay ton b ray nhP30) bng ln (P43) 3.b tng ha ton b h thng t vt 4.tng cng dy dm ln 0,25 m 5.hin i ha h thng thng

tin, tn hiu iu khin chy tu,

nhm bo m tu c th t


- 15 -

PH LC

Quy trnh qun l d n c a ra gm 10 cng on chnh

(The TenStep Project Management Process)

1.0 Define the Work - Xc nh cng vic

2.0 Build the Schedule and Budget - Xy dng k hoch tin v k hoch vn (ngn

sch)

3.0 Manage the Schedule and Budget - Qun l k hoch tin v qun l vn

4.0 Manage Issues - Qun l theo ch

5.0 Manage Change - Qun l pht sinh, thay i

6.0 Manage Communication - Qun l s kt ni, giao tip (hp tc gia cc bn tham

gia d n)

7.0 Manage Risk - Qun l ri ro

8.0 Manage Human Resources - Qun l ngun nhn lc

9.0 Manage Quality - Qun l cht lng

10.0 Manage Metrics - Qun l thc o (Metrics !?)

Trong cc cng on chnh li c chia thnh cc cng on hoc mng kin thc, k

nng nh.

1. Vi cng on 1.0 - Xc nh cng vic, trc khi tin hnh cng vic ngi qun

l d n phi hiu c:

1.0.1 What is a Project? - D n l g?

1.0.1.1 Project Start and End Dates - Thi im bt u v kt thc ca d n

1.0.2 Project Management vs. Project Life Cycle - Qun l d n cng l qun l vng

i d n

1.0.3 Project Management vs. Product Management - Qun l d n cng l qun l

sn phm

1.0.4 The Role of a Project Manager - Quy tc ca Gim c qun l d n

Sau khi tm hiu v nhng kin thc trn, bt u tin hnh tip cn ngun thng tin

Xc nh cng vic (xp hng d n: D n c ln, d n c va, d n c nh)

1.1 Define the Work / Process - Xc nh cng vic / Tin trnh

1.2 Define the Work / Techniques - Xc nh cng vic / K thut


- 16 -

1.3 Define the Work / Quick Reference - Xc nh cng vic / Tham kho nhanh

2. Vi cng on 2.0 - Xy dng k hoch tin v k hoch vn, cng

on ny c hnh thnh v c mi lin h vi cng on 1.0:

2.1 Build the Schedule and Budget / Process - Xy dng k hoch tin v k hoch

vn / Tin trnh

2.2 Build the Schedule and Budget / Techniques - Xy dng k hoch tin v k

hoch vn / K thut

2.3 Build the Schedule and Budget / Quick Reference - Xy dng k hoch tin v

k hoch vn / Tham kho nhanh.

Cng on 1.0 v 2.0 giai on thng tin cn cha nhiu, s b. V vy, chng ta ch

c gng lm tt n mc c th, ng k vng s hon ho.

3. Vi cng on

3.0 - Qun l k hoch tin v qun l vn, bnphi nm c vn Kicking Off

and Closing the Project (Khi ng v kt thc (ng) D n)

3.1 Manage the Schedule and Budget / Process - Qun l k hoch tin v k hoch

vn / Tin trnh

3.2 Manage the Schedule and Budget / Techniques - Qun l k hoch tin v k

hoch vn / K thut

3.3 Manage the Schedule and Budget / Quick Reference - Qun l k hoch tin v

k hoch vn / Tham kho nhanh.

4. Vi cng on

4.0 - Qun l theo ch (vn ), nhng vn c xc nh trc s ngn cn tin

ca d n m Gim c qun l d n cng vi i ng cn b ca mnh khng th

gii quyt nu khng c s gip gip ca cc t chc, c nhn bn ngoi. Qun l

theo ch l mt trong nhng phn nn tng ca TenStep m ngi gim c qun l

d n cn phi rt quan tm v phi lm ch. Rt nhiu d n phi gii quyt cc vn

(xy ra). Chng khng th b l i v n li cho giai on sau. Nhng vn

(c t ra hoc xy ra) phi c gii quyt nhanh v c hiu qu.

4.1 Manage Issues / Process - Qun l theo ch / Tin trnh

4.2 Manage Issues / Techniques - Qun l theo ch / K thut

4.3 Manage Issues / Quick Reference - Qun l theo ch / Tham kho nhanh


- 17 -

5. Vi cng on 5.0 - Qun l pht sinh, thay i mt t lun c nhn mnh v

nhc i nhc li, lun xut hin mi d n: CHANGE -pht sinh, thay i. n c

th l hon ho, nhng khng th d kin cho tt c nhng pht sinh c th xy ra. D

n cng di, s pht sinhv thay i cng ln (nu hiu c iu ny th ta thy rng

s xcnh ban u (cng on 1.0) v ln k hoch (cng on 2.0) khng cn thit

phi i hi n mc hon ho (lp d n, thit k c s).

5.1 Manage Change / Process

5.2 Manage Change / Techniques

5.3 Manage Change / Quick Reference

6. Vi cng on

6.0 - Qun l s kt ni, giao tip. S kt hp ng mc (ph hp) trong mt d n l

mt nhn t quan trng dn ti s thnh cng qun l s k vng ca ch/nh u t.

Nu s hp tc l lng lo, kh nng ln s xy ra l ngi lm QLDA s i mt vi

nhng vn khng phi xut hin t thc t thc hin d n, m bi v Ch u t v

ngi qun l d n khng hiu nhau.

6.1 Manage Communication / Process

6.2 Manage Communication / Techniques

6.3 Manage Communication / Quick Reference

7. Cng on:

7.0 - Qun l ri ro. Ri ro l nhng vn , iu kin hoc hon cnh khng thun li,

khng mong i c th xy ra v tc ng xu ti d n nhiu khi bn ngoi s kim

sot ca i qun l dn. Mt gim c d n khng nng ng (km ci) s c gii

quyt nhng vn khi chng xut hin. Mt gim c d n nng ng s bit lng

trc v gii quyt cc vn ri ro trc khi chng xut hin. y l ngh thut qun

l ri ro.

7.1 Manage Risk / Process

7.2 Manage Risk / Techniques

7.3 Manage Risk / Quick Reference

8. Cng on

8.0 - Qun l ngun nhn lc. Gim c d n l ngi chu trch nhim 100% cho

nhng cng on qun l mt d n. Gim c d n cng c trch nhim qun l

nhn s, mc d nhng trch nhim ny cng c m trch bi nhng gim c ca


- 18 -

cc t i chc nng. Mt s ngi cho ni rng vic qun l nhn lc ca mt d n

l vn thch thc nht v quan trng nht trong mi trch nhim qun l d n.

8.1 Manage Human Resources / Processes

8.2 Manage Human Resources / Techniques

8.3 Manage Human Resources / Quick Reference

9. Cng on:

9.0 Qun l cht lng. Cht lng sau cng ca d n c Ch u t (khch hng)

v i din cho d n xc nhn. Cht lng y khng ch l loi vt liu, my mc

thit b... a vo d n, cng trnh. Cht lng cn th hin vic qun l d n hiu

c nhng yu cu ca khch hng (Ch u t) v nhng k vng v sau t

c nhng mong i, k vng . Cht lng l vic khi ng v kt thc d n

ph hp (hoc vt) yu cu v tin ra.

9.1 Manage Quality / Process

9.2 Manage Quality / Techniques

9.3 Manage Quality / Quick Reference

10. V cng on 10.0 Qun l thc o. Vic thu thp nhng thc o (tiu chun)

trong mt d n l qu trnh qun l d n phc tp nhtv c th l kh nht. V

nhng thc o c th rt kh xc nh v thu thp, thng b l i (cho qua). Mi

d n cn phi l s thu thp cc thng tin c bn v nhng thc o cn lu tm v

chi ph, kt qu t c v thi gian thc hin. Cng on 10.0 tp trung vo thu

thpnhng thc o xc nh kh nng tho g an ton cc vn , tha mn nhng

k vng ca Ch u t v cc cng on c phn chia trong ni ti d n lm vic

tt ra sao. Ph thuc vo cc kt qu, hnh ng ph hp hay nhng hot ng ci tin

cng on c th m nhn thc hin cc cng on nng sut v hiu qu hn.

Cng on ny cn c ngha cung cp thng tin tham kho cho cc d n sau ny.

10.1 ManageMetrics/Process

10.2 Manage Metrics / Techniques

10.3 Manage Metrics / Quick Reference


- 1 -

CHNG 2 LA CHN D N I . TNG QUAN V LA CHN D N

1. Tng quan

- La chn d n l qu trnh nh gi tng d n ring l hoc mt nhm cc d n

chn la thc hin nhm tho mn cc mc tiu ca doanh nghip.

- Mi d n c cc chi ph, li nhun v cc ri ro khc nhau m ta khng bit mt

cch chc chn la chn d n l cng vic kh khn.

- Vic chn la nhm d n khc nhau (portfolio) cng phc tp hn thng l

cng vic ca nh qun l cp cao.

- La chn d n da trn mc tiu PM cn bit thc hin d n hiu qu

2. Bn cht cc m hnh la chn d n

- Hai dng m hnh la chn c bn: S hc v khng s hc.

- Lu :

+ M hnh khng ra quyt nh Con ngi ra quyt nh

+ Khng c m hnh no t quyt nh ti u

- xy dng cc m hnh la chn/ nh gi nh qun l cp cao cn lit k cc

mc tiu c trng s ca doanh nghip

- Cc yu t cn thit nh gi d n c phn theo cc chc nng nh sau:

Cc yu t sn xut

1. Thi gian sn sng lp t

2. Thi gian dng khi lp t

3. Thi gian vn hnh nh mong mun

4. Hu qu ca sn phm h b loi b

5. Cc yu cu v nng lng

6. Cc yu cu v trang thit b

7. an ton ca qu trnh sn xut

8. Cc ng dng cng ngh khc

9. Chi ph thay i trn 1 n v sn phm

10. Thay i trong s dng nguyn vt liu

11. S sn sng ca nguyn vt liu

12. Thi gian v chi ph pht trin

13. nh hng ln nh cung cp hin ti

14. Thay i cht lng sn phm u ra

Cc yu t tip th

1. Qui m th trng tim nng ca sn phm

2. Th phn c th c ca sn phm


- 2 -

3. Thi gian c c th phn

4. nh hng ln dy chuyn sn xut hin ti

5. S chp nhn ca khch hng

6.nh hng n s an ton ca khch hng

7. Chu k hot ng d tnh ca sn phm

8. Cc kh nng d n ph

Cc yu t ti chnh

1. Mc li nhun ca vic u t

2. nh hng ln dng tin mt

3. Nhu cu tin mt

4. Thi gian hon vn

5. Qui m u t yu cu

6. nh hng thay i theo ma hay theo chu k

Cc yu t nhn s

1. Nhu cu o to

2. Cc yu cu k nng lao ng

3. Tnh sn sng ca cc k nng lao ng

4. Mc phn khng t lc lng lao ng hin c

5. S thay i qui m lc lng lao ng

6. Nhu cu giao tip trong v ngoi i nhm d n

7. S nh hng ln cc iu kin lm vic

Cc yu t hnh chnh khc

1. p ng cc tiu chn v an ton ca nh nc

2. p ng cc tiu chn v mi trng ca nh nc

3. nh hng ln h thng thng tin

4. Phn ng ca th trng chng khon v cc nhm quan tm n d n

5. Bng sng ch v bo v b mt thng mi

6. nh hng ln hnh nh ca khch hng, nh cung cp v i th cnh tranh

7. Mc bit v cng ngh mi

8. Kh nng qun l nhm hng dn v qun l qu trnh mi

3. Tiu chun cho cc m hnh la chn d n - Hin thc (Realism) Quyt nh ca nh qun l l c th thc hin c

- Kh nng (capacity) C kh nng m phng cc tnh hung khc nhau v ti u

ho c quyt nh

- Linh hot (Flexibility) nhm cung cp cc kt qu c gi tr trong mt s cc iu

kin


- 3 -

- D dng thc hin (Ease of Use) Tin li, d thc thi v d hiu

- Chi ph (Cost) cc d liu thu thp v cc chi ph m hnh ho nn thp so vi chi

ph ca d n

- D vi tnh ho (Easy Computerization) cc d liu trong m hnh phi d dng v

tin li trong vic thu thp, lu tr v x l

4. Cc bc trong qu trnh la chn d n: 8 bc

Bc 1: Lit k tt c cc d n hin ti v cc tng d n. Cc ngun tng

khc nhau: khch hng- nh cung cp qun l cp cao - i ng cng nhn.

Bc 2: Xc nh tnh cn thit hoc c hi ca tng d n (nghin cu tin kh thi)

Bc 3: D tnh s b thi gian v ngn sch cho tng d n. Ch cn xc nh tng

i chi ph v thi gian cn thit hon thnh mt d n so vi cc d n khc

Bc 4: nh gi tnh kh thi chung ca tng Xem xt nh gi.

Bc 5: Xc nh cc ri ro (kh nng tht bi) lin quan n d n. Bc ny tin

hnh song song vi bc 4.

Tnh kh thi cao = mc ri ro thp

Bc 6: Xem xt li danh sch cc d n, cc mc tiu, tnh kh thi v cc ri ro vi

nh qun l cp trn (vi khch hng nu thun li) v vi cc thnh vin d kin

trong nhm d n thng nht kin. D n cng phc tp th cng cn ly kin

cc thnh vin khc trc khi xp th t u tin cng vic.

Bc 7: Loi b cc d n khng kh thi v khng ph hp v sp xp cc d n cn

li. Cc quyt nh sp xp th t u tin cc d n l mt qu trnh

c nhiu cuc hp gia lnh o cp trn, khch hng v cc thnh vin trong d n

phi thng lng v gii quyt mu thun trc khi a n quyt nh cui cng.

Bc 8: Chn la cc d n quan trng nht v thc hin ngay (dng bng th t u

tin cc d n Project Priority Project)

Ch : Mt s cc d n c khi rt cn c thc hin c th b loi b do mc u

tin thp/ thi gian khng trin khai c Cc d n ny nn c xem xt ln

sau v th t u tin c th thay i do cc d n khc thc hin.

5. Cc l do loi b d n

- Thiu tin, nhn s, k nng, thi gian v cc ngun lc khc cn thit m bo

d n thnh cng.

- Cc mc tiu d n l mu thun vi mc tiu di hn ca cng ty.

- Sn phm ca d n vi phm lut hay cc chnh sch hin ti, hoc c nhng nh

hng tiu cc n v tr hay hnh nh ca cng ty.

- Mc d chnh ph hay cc quan chc nh nc mun c cc d n yu thch (pet

project): Nhng d n mun lm ch khng phi cn thit phi lm, cc k thut nh

gi c dng s gip h thy nh hng bn trong ca cc d n.


- 4 -

- D n khng c kh nng thc hin nhanh chng mc d d n l kh thi.

- C mu thun vi cc d n ang thc hin khc hoc c hoch nh v cc d

n c mc u tin cao v ang nm gi cc nhn s ch cht.

II. CC DNG M HNH NH GI D N

1. M HNH KHNG S HC (Nonnumeric models)

a. Tnh thing ling (The Sacred Cow)

- D n c ngh bi 1 vin chc lu nm v c quyn lc trong n v

- Thng d n bt u t li ngh pht trin d n

- T sacred c ngha d n s c duy tr n khi thnh cng hoc n khi vin

chc ny nhn thy tng mnh sai v mun kt thc d n

b. S cn thit cho vn hnh (The Operating Necessity)

- Nu d n cn thit nhm m bo h thng vn hnh tt

- Khng cn nh gi chnh thc

- Cu hi chnh: H thng c ng gi tit kim so vi chi phi ca d n ?

c. S cn thit cnh tranh (The Competitive Necessity)

- Quyt nh thc hin d n da trn mong mun duy tr v th cnh tranh ca n

v

- u t trong cc d n dng operating necesity th u tin hn dng competitive

necesity

- C hai dng d n c th b qua cc phn tch s hc chnh xc

d. M rng dy chuyn sn xut (The Production line Extension)

- D n xy dng v pht trin sn phm mi

- Tnh ton li nhun k cng i lc khng cn thit

- Nh qun l ra quyt nh da trn nim tin rng nu sn phm mi c a vo

dy chuyn sn xut s nh hng n vic hon thnh ca ton b h thng

e. M hnh li nhun so snh (Comparative Benefit Model)

- Nhiu d n nhng khng d dng so snh vi nhau do khc c tnh (sn phm

mi thay i phng php sn xut vi tnh ho qu trnh ghi chp)

- Q-sort k thut sp xp th t cc d n

+ Chia cc d n ra lm 3 nhm: Tt TB Xu theo mc ng gi tng i

+ K thut Q-SORT


- 5 -

Cc bc Kt qu tng bc

Bc 1 . Ngi nh gi tp hp cc th c tn v m t d n Bc 2. Chia thnh 2 b: u tin thp u tin cao Bc 3. Chn th t mi b thnh b th ba: mc trung bnh Bc 4. Chn cc th t u tin cao & thp thnh nhm c u tin rt cao & rt thp Bc 5 . Cui cng, xem xt kt qu

2. M HNH S HC (Numeric models/ quantitative approachs)

2.1 GI TR THI GIAN CA TIN

- Khi nim thi gi tin t rt quan trng trong phn tch ti chnh v hu ht cc

quyt nh ti chnh t quyt nh u t, quyt nh ti tr cho n cc quyt nh v

qun l ti sn u c lin quan n thi gi tin t. C th, thi gi tin t c s

dng nh yu t ct li trong rt nhiu m hnh phn tch v nh gi ti sn, k c u

t ti hu hnh ln u t ti sn ti chnh. Mt ng hm nay c gi tr hn mt ng

ngy mai, v mt ng hm nay c th u t v sinh li ngay lp tc. l nguyn

tc c bn u tin ca ti chnh. Tin c gi tr thi gian do nh hng ca cc yu t.

u tin rt thp

u tin thp

u tin cao

u tin rt cao

Tp hp b th

u tin thp

u tin cao

u tin thp

u tin trung bnh

u tin cao

u tin trung bnh


- 6 -

- Qu vy, nu bn cho bn thn ca mnh mn s tin 50 ngn ng vo bui

sng, n tra th nhn li1. Lc y, 50 ngn l nh nhau, hay ni cch khc, bn

khng thy c s khc bit no v gi tr thi gian ca tin t.

- Nhng nu bn mua c phiu ca Cng ty VaBiCo cch y 2 nm vi gi 40

ngn ng/C phiu, tt nhin mc ch mua (u t) l kim li, th li l cu chuyn

khc. Sau khi mua, gi c phiu c lc tng cao hn 40 ngn, bn bo hy ch ln na

kim li nhiu hn, c lc gi rt xung thp hn 40 ngn, bn hy vng n s ln

tr li. Hm nay trn th trng gi ng 40 ngn, v cn tin nn bn mang i bn.

Bn tng b ra 40 ngn ng cch y 2 nm, by gi thu li cng ng 40 ngn

ng. Lc ny, bn c ni l hu vn? Cu tr li chn hn l khng? V nh vy, bn

tha nhn rng cng s tin 40 ngn ng, gi tr ca chng s khc nhau vo hai

thi im khc nhau

2.1.1 Cc yu t nh hng

Bt k mt d n no cng phn nh hai kha cnh c bn: Chi ph v Doanh thu

ca d n. Chng c biu th qua ng tin vi nhng gi tr khc nhau nhng

thi im khc nhau do tc ng ca nhiu yu t:

- nh hng ca yu t lm pht

+ Do nh hng ca yu t lm pht nn cng mt lng tin nhng lng hng

ho mua c giai on sau t hn giai on trc. iu ny biu th s thay i ca

tin theo thi gian.

+ V d 2.1 Chng hn gi tin mua 1 tn thp nm 2002 l 4.651.000 ng, nm

2003 vi s tin ch mua c 775kg thp (gi thp nm 2003 l 6.000.000/tn).

Nh vy lng thp mua c nm 2003 gim 22,5% so vi nm 2002

+ 22,5% ny biu th s thay i gi tr ca tin Vit Nam theo thi gian (gi tr

ca tin gim 22,5%)

- nh hng ca cc yu t ngu nhin

+ Ai m bit c ngy sau ri s ra sao? Mt ng tin s nhn c trong

tng lai chn chn lkhng c g chc chn c. Do nh hng ca cc yu t ngu

nhin (ri ro hoc may mn) gi tr thi gian ca tin biu hin nhng gi tr gia tng

hoc gim i

1 l bn thn m, ai ni ly li. Thm nh d n u t Nguyn Tn Bnh - 2010


- 7 -

+ Chng hn nh nhng nm c thin tai hay chin tranh, s thay i th ch

chnh sch hay nhng th lc d di ca th trng cnh tranh, trng thi nn kinh t

tng trng hay suy thoi, ch trng chnh ph tip tc bo h hay m ra c hi

nhp, bnh yn hay khng hong v v vn nhng th rt kh nh lng khc, lun

rnh rp. B ra ng vn trong hon cnh , ngi ta cn c mt phn thng b

p (Ph thng ri ro, Risk Premium). Vn khng phi l s ri ro, s th khng

lm, m l chp nhn v nh i ri ro nh th no. Ri ro cng cao th phn thng

i hi phi cng ln. Ngc li cng hon ton ng nh vy, li nhun cng nhiu

th ri ro cng lm (high return, high risk) tr thnh bi hc u tin s ng u tin

cho mi kha hc v qun tr kinh doanh. C ngi mua bt ng sn vi hy vng t

li sut 30% nm, trong khi c ngi chp nhn gi tit kim ngn hng

hng sut 6% nm. C ngi u t chng khon cng ty li sut 20% nm th cng

c ngi chn mua tri phiu chnh ph li sut 7% nm. Khng c g l l c. l

s song phng ca th trng. C hi l nh nhau i vi tt c mi ngi

- Do thuc tnh vn ng v kh nng sinh li ca tin

Do thuc tnh vn ng v kh nng sinh li ca tin trong nn kinh t th trng

ng vn lun lun c s dng di mi hnh thc em li li ch cho ngi s

hu n v khng vn nm cht. Ngay c khi tm thi nhn ri th tin ca Nh u

t cng c gi vo Ngn hng v cng sinh li. S thay i lng tin sau mt thi

on no biu hin gi tr thi gian ca tin.

Do , cn thit phi xt ti gi tr ca ng tin theo thi gian thng qua cc ch

s ti chnh: Ch s v li ca ng tin (li tc, li sut, li n, li kp); gi tr hin

ti v gi tr tng lai ca ng tin ni chung; phng php chit khu trong phn

tch d n v t sut chit khu ti chnh ca d n u t. ng tin lun c c hi

sinh li, n c th dng u t v c li ngay lp tc. Ni theo cch hn lm l lun

c chi ph c hi (opportunity cost) cho vic s dng tin. Khi bn u t vo c phiu

cng c ngha l chp nhn b qua c hi sinh li t vic u t mua t.2 Nu li sut

tin gi ngn hng l 10% nm, vic u t c phiu VaBiCo trn y ti thiu cng

lm bn mt i c hi kim c s tin li l 8 ngn (=40 ngn *20%) nu bn khim

2 Xt bn cht kinh t, kinh doanh t ai v mua bn chng khon l hon ton ging nhau. Nhng ngi trung gian hng hu hng n thun trn th trng chng khon c gi ci tn rt p l cc nh mi gii chng khon (brokers), va trung gian va tham gia mua bn c gi l cc nh u t chng khon(dealers), nhng sao nhng vai tr nh vy nh vy trong a c th gi l c v k u c?


- 8 -

tn, hoc c th ni l nht gan, chp nhn hng mt li sut thp nht bng cch gi

tit ngn hng (cha tnh n li kp li m li con)

Dng tin u t vo d n l vic hy sinh li ch ngy hm nay k vng vo

nhng li ch ln hn ngy mai.

Ngay c khi bn s dng tin cho tiu dng cng vy. Mt s tiu dng hin ti

s li cho bn tha dng sm hn v cao hn l s ch i dnh n tng lai.

V nu bn chu nhn thmchic xe SH hm nay u t kim li v 3 nm sau

chng l no cng l chic SH.3

Bn phi c thng v s tr hon tiu dng ny, phn thng l li sut (li

sut chit khu).

2.1.2 Li sut v quan h li sut theo cc thi k khc nhau

2.1.2.1 Li tc (li tc)

- C mt khon tin gi ngn hng, th thng sau, nm sau ta c khon tin c

tch lu ln hn s tin ban u. Ta ni rng, ng tin c gi tr thay i theo thi

gian v s thay i c biu th qua li tc, tc l khon tin thu c sau khi ly

vn tch lu tr i vn u t ban u.

Li tc = Tng vn tch lu - Tng vn ban u (2.1)

- Trong th trng vn: Li tc chnh l s tin m ngi vay phi tr cho ngi

cho vay c quyn s dng vn vay (theo tho thun gia hai bn)

2.1.2.2 Li sut

Li sut chnh l t l % ca li tc so vi Vn ban u (vn gc)

Li tc trong mt 1 n v thi gian

Li sut(%) = x 100% (5.2)

Vn gc

Ch : Nu vn l vn vay, th sut thu li (IRR) phi > li sut vay, th mi c

li nhun.

Khi xem xt li sut cn phn bit li sut n v li sut ghp. gii thch vn

ny chng ta xem xt khi nim li sut n v li sut ghp.

a. Li sut n (Simple Interest)

- L li sut ch tnh trn s vn gc m khng tnh thm phn li tch lu pht

snh t tin li cc giai on trc, c gi l li n

3 Ni theo cch bnh dn l: Sng trc kh sau hoc l kh trc sng sau. trn i, khng c g l sng trc ri sng sau c. Thm nh d n u t Nguyn Tn Bnh - 2010


- 9 -

SI = P* r * n (5.3)

- Nu li sut n tnh gp c vn gc

SI = P* r * n + P = P(1 + r * n) (5.4) Trong :

P: S vn vay ban u

r: T l li sut n

n: S thi on tnh li sut

SI: Li vo cui thi on tnh ton

- V d 2.2: Tnh s tin ca doanh nghip phi tr sau 1 nm hot ng vi vn

vay ban u l 10.000USD v li sut n cho vay l 2%/thng. Tnh s tin li phi

tr.

Gii:

S tin li n:

SI = P* r * n = 10.000 * 2% * 12 = 2.400 USD

S tin phi tr c gc v li vo cui nm l:

10.000 (1 + 0,02 * 12) = 12.400 USD

in hnh ca trng hp vay theo ch li n l vay vn lu ng. Thi on

tnh ton l thng. Cui mi thng ngi vay mang li ca thng tr cho ch n, ch

gi li vn gc tip tc kinh doanh.

b. Li kp (Compound Interest)

Trng hp tin li thi on trc khng tr cho ngi cho vay m c tnh

gp vo vn gc tnh cho thi on sau th c gi l Li kp v c xc nh

nh sau :

I = P [(1+r)n 1]

- Nu tnh gp c vn gc

I = P (1+r)n

Trong

I: Li vo cui thi on tnh ton n

P : s vn vay ban u

r: li sut n

n: s thi on tnh li.


- 10 -

Trong thc t, trng hp li kp thng hay c dng hn li n, v ch n

khng mun thu tin l t hng thng, nm m mun ht thi hn mi thu v v mt

khon thu ln hn. Cn ph con n, nu sn xut kinh doanh c li th vn mun gi

li khon tin li ng ra phi tr hng thng, nm tng thm vn, m rng sn xut

kinh doanh.

- V d 2.3: Ly li v d 1 nu trn, tnh li kp sau 1 nm hot ng. Ta c

I = P[(1 + r)n -1]= 10.000[(1 + 0,02)12 -1] = 2.682,4USD

S tin phi tr sau 1 nm c gc ln li l: 10000+2682,4 = 12.682,42

- V d 5.4: C ngi gi ngn hng s tin 2.000 USD, li sut 10%/nm. Hi

sau 1, 25 nm c tng s tin thu c l bao nhiu ? Tnh cho c 2 trng hp li

sut n v li sut kp.

S nm gi ngn hng Li n Li kp

1 2000 *0,1*1 = 200 2000 *[(1 +0,1)^1-1]= 200

2 2000 *0,1*2= 400 2000 *[(1 +0,1)^2-1] = 420

3 2000 *0,1*3= 600 2000 *[(1 +0,1)^3-1] = 662

4 2000 *0,1*4 = 800 2000 *[(1 +0,1)^4-1] = 928,2

5 2000 *0,1*5= 1000 2000 *[(1 +0,1)^5-1] = 1221,02

2.1.2.3 Quan h li sut theo cc thi k khc nhau

a. Li sut danh ngha (Nominal Interest rate)

Li sut danh ngha l li sut m thi on pht biu mc li khng trng vi

thi on ghp li. Chng hn ta ni li sut 15% nm vi thi on ghp li l qu.

Thi on ghp li l qu c ngha l c sau 1 qu tin li s nhp vo vn gc ca

qu tnh li cho qu tip theo. Nh vy thi on pht biu mc li l nm

khng ph hp vi thi on ghp li l qu.

b. Li sut thc hay cn gi l li sut hiu dng (Effective Interest rate)

- Li sut thc l li sut m thi on pht biu mc li trng vi thi on ghp

li

- y thi on pht biu mc li l nm ph hp vi thi on ghp li l

nm. Trong thc t nu li sut pht biu khng ghi thi hn ghp li km theo, khi

li sut c hiu l li sut thc v thi on ghp li bng thi on pht biu mc

li. V d Chng ta ni li sut 15% nm, th phi hiu l li sut thc v thi on

ghp li theo nm, khi ta c li sut thc.


- 11 -

- Li sut thc trong thi on tnh ton c tnh theo li sut danh ngha bng

cng thc sau y :

1)1( 21

+= mde mr

r

Trong :

re: Li sut thc trong thi on tnh ton

rd: Li sut danh ngha trong thi on pht biu

m1: S thi on ghp li trong thi on pht biu

m2: S thi on ghp li trong thi on tnh ton

- Quan h gia li sut thc ng vi nhng thi on khc nhau c tnh ton

theo quan h sau

Thng thng khi ni n li sut ngi ta thng tnh cho thi k l 1 nm. Vn

t ra l tnh cc gi tr li sut tng ng nu thi on tnh khng phi l 1 nm

+ Nu vay theo nhng k hn khc nhau th phi chuyn cc li sut i vay v

cng mt k hn (thng thng ly k hn l nm)

Trong :

rn: Li sut theo k hn nm

rt: Li sut theo k hn t (6 thng, qu, thng)

m: S k hn t trong 1 nm

+ Nu li sut theo k hn thng, khi chuyn sang k hn nm l:

+ Nu li sut theo l hn qu, khi chuyn sang k hn nm l:

+ Nu li sut theo k hn 6 thng, khi chuyn sang k hn nm l:

c. Li sut c xt n lm pht

- Trt gi c coi l s tng gi ca mt mt hng c th. Lm pht c coi l

s gim sc mua ca ng tin ni chung. Lm pht l yu t khch quan. Do lm

php nn ngi ta a ra ch s gi tiu dng (CPI: Consumer Price Index), s thay

rn = (1 + rt )m 1 (24)

rn = (1 + rt )12 1 (25)

rn = (1 + r6 thng )2 1 (27)

rn = (1 + rq )4 1 (26)


- 12 -

i gi tiu dng chnh l lm pht. Nu ta gi ngn hng 1000$ vi li sut 10% nm

k hn mt nm, cui nm nhn c khon hon tri l 1100$, nhng gi hng ho

tng 6% trong nm, cui nm ta mua c hng ho c gi tr 1000/1.06=1037,4$ so

vi ngy cho vay.

Khon hon tri nhn c : 1100$

Khon hon tri c xt n lm pht 1037,4$

- V d 2.4: Ta u t 1000$ trong 20 nm vi li sut 10%, khon hon tri

tng lai l 1000 x 1,120

= 6727,50$, vi lm pht 6% mt nm th gi tr thc ca

khon so vi thi im cho vay hin nay l : 6727,50$/1.0620

= 2097,67$. Ngha l

tin ta s c gp 6 ln hin nay nhng mua hng ch gp khong 2 ln m thi.

- Cng thc tnh t l li nhun c xt n lm pht:

11

1

++

=f

rr lp

Trong :

f: T l lm pht

r: Li sut cha xt n lm pht

rlfp: li sut c tnh n yu t lm pht

Ngn lu danh ngha l dng ngn lu c xt n lm pht = ngn lu thc hay

ngn lu cha xt n lm pht / (1+t l lm pht)

2.1.3 Biu dng tin t v cc dng Ngn lu in hnh

2.1.3.1 Biu dng tin t

- Tt c cc d n u t u phi u phi b ra mt lng chi ph nht nh

nhm thu c li ch trong tng lai. Cc khon thu nhp v cc khon chi ph ca

d n xut hin nhng nm khc nhau ca i d n, to thnh dng tin t ca d

n.

- Dng tin hay cn gi l ngn lu (Cash Flows) ca d n l hnh thc biu

hin cc khon thu chi tin mt hng nm trong i d n. Dng tin rng (thu hi

thun) c xc nh bng khon thu tin mt tr khon chi tin mt. Biu dng

tin t l mt th biu din cc tr s thu v chi theo cc thi on (nm, qu,

thng). Cc tr s thu (+) c biu din bng mi tn theo chiu dng k hiu l

Bt, cc tr s chi (-) c biu din theo chiu m k hiu l Ct (dng tin c th u


- 13 -

hoc khng u). Biu dng tin t l mt cng c quan trng phn tch hiu qu

d n u t, xem v d cc s sau:

2.1.3.2 Cc dng Ngn lu in hnh trong phn tch d n u t

C ba s c bn ca dng ngn lu :

- S 1 : Va u t va khai thc

Mi thi on va c u t, va c thu va c chi

- S 2 : Xy dng c bn Khai thc

u t xy dng c bn xong mi khai thc, nn trong giai on XDCB hu nh

ch c chi, cn trong giai on khai thc c c thu ln chi (chi khai thc)

- S 3 : u t xy dng c bn mt phn sau va khai thc va u t,

nn trong giai on XDCB t 1 hu nh ch c chi, cn trong giai on sau c c

thu (khai thc) ln chi (chi u t v chi khai thc)

2.1.4 Xc nh sut chit khu tnh ton.

La chn sut chit khu (discount rate) l mt vn quan trng v cng rt

kh khn trong vic ra quyt nh u t. Mt d n c NPV dng khi sut sinh li

mang li t d n vt qu sut sinh li yu cu i vi d n. Sut sinh li yu cu

0 6 5 4 2 3 1 Thi gian n

Chi(-) Ct

Thu(+) Bt

0 3 4 5

(N-2) (N-1) N

2 1

.

T (nm)

Bt u nm th nht

Kt thc nm th nht


- 14 -

ca mt d n phi bng vi sut sinh li mang li t vic u t vo mt ti sn c

ri ro tng ng trn th trng ti chnh. V vy, Sut chit khu tnh ton c

xc nh bi cc nh qun l da trn chi ph c hi ca vn u t, tc l sc sinh li

m cng ty c th t c t mt phng n u t tt nht khc c cng mc ri

ro nh d n ang thc hin.

Phng php xc nh chi ph s dng vn v la chn sut chit tnh c trnh

by k trong cc mn hc v ti chnh. Trong bi ny, chng ta tm hiu mt cch

ngn gn phng php chn sut chit tnh thng c s dng trong thc tin.

2.1.4.1 Mt s khi nim

- Chit khu ca ng tin l s chnh lch gi tr ca ng tin theo thi gian.

Phng php chit khu l phng php cp n yu t chit khu trong phn tch

ti chnh ni chung.

- Chi ph c hi ca vn

Chi ph c hi ca vn l gi tr mt i do khng s dng ng tin vo mc ch

sinh li tt nht.

Do tnh cht v gi tr ca ng tin thay i theo thi gian to nn nhng sinh

li khc nhau trong hot ng u t. Cn phi tn dng cc yu t sinh li c li

nhun tt nht, hay ni cch khc cn bit nm ly c hi sinh li u t c hiu

qu.

- Chi ph c hi trong phn tch d n u t

+ Chng ta hiu rng: Trong hot ng u t, trn th trng vn c nhiu chi

ph c hi ca ng tin c hnh thnh nh: li sut vay, li c phnDo c hi

sinh li l rt a dng v c mc sinh li khc nhau

D n u t thng c tin hnh trong nhiu nm, c thi gian hot ng di.

Do vi mt khong thi gian di nh vy, cc chi ph c hi cng biu hin r v

cng c gi tr ln khi thi gian u t di.

Trong qu trnh thc hin d n u t, lun pht sinh nhng chi ph ti chnh v

cc li ch ti cc thi im khc nhau (hin ti, tng lai) v chi ph c hi cng s

khc nhau ti cc thi im .


- 15 -

2.1.4.2 Sut chit khu tnh ton4

a. Chi ph s dng vn ch s hu (re)5

- V mt l lun, chi ph vn t c l t sut sinh li ti thiu phi t c trn

phn vn t c ti tr cho d n nhm khng lm thay i gi tr th trng ca cc c

phn thng. Nu doanh nghip u t vo d n c t sut sinh li k vng nh hn

t sut sinh li cn thit ny v lu di s lm gim kh nng sinh li ca cng ty v

qua lm gim gi tr th trng ca cc c phn thng.

- Vy chi ph vn t c l t sut chit khu lm cn bng gi tr th trng hin

ti ca c phn thng vi gi tr hin ti ca cc li tc thu c trong tng lai:

= +=

10

)1(ii

e

I

r

DP (5.20)

Trong :

P0: G tr th trng hin ti ca c phn thng.

Di: Li tc tr trong nm th i.

re: Chi ph vn t c.

- Trong thi gian s dng vn t c khng nhng phi tr li tc m cn c th

xy ra cc tnh trng thay i gi tr th trng ca c phn thng. V th chng ta

cn tnh ph tn cho vn t c tng thm do thay i li tc v c tnh n s thay i

gi tr c phn thng. Vi n hu hn th phng trnh tnh chi ph vn t c l:

= +

++

=n

in

e

n

e

i

r

P

r

DP

10 )1()1(

(5.21)

- Theo cch tip cn nh gi ti sn - vn:

+ Chi ph vn t c xc nh nh trn l thng qua dng li tc cc nm, theo

cch tnh tip cn nh gi ti sn th chi ph vn t c c th xc nh trc tip bng t

sut sinh li cn thit v ri ro h thng. H s c s dng o lng mc p

ng bng thu nhp bnh qun ca chng khon vi ri ro h thng (M hnh CAPM) :

(5.22)

4 Cc khi nim : Sut chit khu (discount) hay t l chit khu (discount rate), li sut (rate), sut sinh li mong mun (i hi) ca vn ch s hu (RROE- Required return on equity), chi ph s dng vn (CC- cost of capital) ng nht vi nnhau trong cch gi khi s dng tnh gi tr theo thi gian ca tin t v ty vo tng trng hp c th. Thm nh d n u t Nguyn Tn Bnh - 2010 5 Ngn sch u t TS on Gia Dng H N

rE= r0 + (rm - r0) e


- 16 -

Trong :

rE : Chi ph vn t c.

rm :T sut sinh li bnh qun trn th trng.

r0 : T sut sinh li khng c ri ro.

e : H s o lng mc thu nhp bnh qun cn thit ca vn t c vi ri ro h

thng ( doa ng, tc nhy cm, cng hiu l ri ro ca sut sinh li ca mt

cng ty hay ngnh no so vi li bnh qun th trng, c thng hi qui s liu

ca 5 nm)

- Mt s tc gi cn ngh tnh chi ph vn t c trn c s chi ph vay n :

Trong :

red : Phn thng ri ro ca c phiu thng so vi di hn

- Thng thng chi ph vn t c c xc nh da vo t sut li nhun bnh

qun ca nn kinh t hoc ca Ch u t trong kinh doanh trc khi u t (sut sinh

li mong mun ca ch u t)

b. Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun (WACC weinghted average cost of capital)

- Vn ca mt cng ty hay ca mt d n c huy ng t hai ngun : Vn ch

s hu v vn i vay. Mi ngun c mt sut sinh li i hi khc nhau. i vi nh

cho vay, yu cu l li sut, i vi vn ch s hu thng i hi c sut sinh li cao

hn do ri ro cao hn. Trong trnh t thanh khon, vn ch s hu nm v tr sau

cng, khon n vay c u tin nhn trc.

- Sut chit khu ca mt d n phi c tnh bnh qun ca chi ph s dng cc

loi vn, c trng s l cc t l ca tng ngun vn.

- Chi ph s dng vn bnh qun gia quyn (WACC: Weighted Average Cost of

Capital) c tm tt qua cng thc tng qut nh sau :

WACC = %D rD + %E rE

Trong :

%D: T l n vay

% E: T l vn ch s hu

RE = rd + red


- 17 -

rD: Li sut tin vay

rE: Sut sinh li i hi ca vn ch s hu

(Lu l: %D + %E =100% hay N phi tr + Vn ch s hu = Ti sn)

- Nu c cu vn i vay t nhiu ngun khc nhau c li sut khc nhau v vn

ch s hu cng c huy ng t nhiu ngun khc nhau c sut sinh li khc nhau

(c phiu u i, c phiu thng) cng thc trn c th trin khai nh sau:

WACC = %D1 rD1 + %D2 rD2 + %E1 rE1 + %E2 rE2

- Trng hp d n c chu thu thu nhp, chi ph li vay c hch ton vo chi

ph trc khi tnh thu, v vy cng thc tng qut WACC c vit li nh sau:

WACC = %D rD (1- T%) + %E rE

Trong :

T% : L thu sut

- V d 2.5 Hy nh gi d n u t mt thi on c nhu cu vn u t l

100 Tr.VND cho li nhun k vng sau thu l 200 Tr.VND. Sau 1 nm, cho rng d

n vay vn mc 60% tng vn u t, li xut 7%/nm, 40% s vn cn li s dng

vn ch s hu, sut sinh li l 10%

Gii

Ta c WACC = 06*7% + 0,4*10% = 8,2%

NPV = -100 + 200/(1-8,2%) = 84,84 Tr.VND >0 Chp nhn d n

- V d 2.6 : Mt d n c tng vn u t l 1000, trong huy ng n vay l

400, li sut 8% nm. Nu sut sinh li ca vn ch s hu l 20% v thu sut l 30%

th sut chit khu ca d n s l

WACC = 40% 8% (1 - 30%) + 60% 20%

= 2,2% + 12%

= 14,2% Lu

- Trong mt cng ty vic u t lun gn lin vi trng thi ti chnh chung ca

c doanh nghip, v vy cc cn nhc ngun vn ti tr cho d n c xem xt trong

mi quan h vi trng thi ti chnh chung ca c doanh nghip. C th s dng ph

tn ton b vn doanh nghip nh l mt tiu chun chp nhn d n u t. Song

iu ny ch xy ra trong iu kin chc chn, khi ri ro ca cc ti sn hin c s

cng c tnh ri ro vi d n u t. Tt nhin, khi d n ri ro qu ln vic s dng

ph tn ton b lm t l sinh li cn thit s khng hp l. Gi s, c th dng chi ph


- 18 -

ton b vn ca doanh nghip lm t l sinh li cn thit th chi ph ny s c tnh

t chi ph ca cc b phn ti tr cu thnh vi cc nguyn tc sau y:

+ S dng chi ph bin t ca cc ngun ti tr, ngha l ch tnh chi ph ca phn

ti tr tng thm, khng tnh chi ph ca c cu ti tr qu kh.

+ Tinh chi ph c hi vn trn c s sau thu, iu ny s ph hp vi s din t

ngn sch u t cng trn c s sau thu.

Chi ph ca cc khon vay n (rD)6

- Cc khon vay n m chng ta s cp phn ny khng bao gm cc khon

n ma v v cc khon khng c chi ph tin li r rng nh: khon phi tr, n tch

ly...

- Cc khon vay n cn quan tm l khon n khng ma v, c chi ph tin li

r rng, c l ch yu l n di hn.

- Gi s doanh nghip ti tr cho d n s sinh li trong mt s nm v vic ti

tr cho n cng c thi hn tng t.

- Chi ph ca khon vay n l t sut chit khu lm cn bng gi tr rng ca

khon n pht sinh vi gi tr hin ti rng ca tin li v vn gc phi tr sau khi iu

chnh nh hng thu thu nhp.

Trong :

rD : Chi ph ca khon vay n (chi ph ca vn vay)

rvay:: L li sut vay

T: T sut thu thu nhp

Nu vay t nhiu ngun vi li sut khc nhau th rvay l li sut vay bnh qun t

cc ngun vn

Chi ph cho c phiu u i(rd)

C phiu u i l c phiu nhn li tc c nh t ph thuc vo kt qu kinh

doanh ca cng ty v thanh ton li tc ca c phiu u i trc thu nhp cho c

phiu thng. Chi ph ca vic ti tr bng pht hnh c phiu u i:

rd = oP

D (5.19)

Trong :

6 Ngn sch u t TS on Gia Dng H N

r D = rvay (1 - T) (5.18)


- 19 -

P0: Ga tr rng nhn c t pht hnh c phiu u i. P0 bng gi bn c phiu

u i tr i chi ph pht hnh.

D: C tc u i phi tr hng nm.

Chi ph s dng vn c phn thng

c lng chi ph vn c phn thng (bao gm c li nhun gi li v vn

c phn tng thm) hay ni cch khc l xc nh sut sinh li yu cu ca ch s

hu ta c 2 cch tip cn :

- Dng m hnh tng trng

- Dng m hnh nh gi to sn vn (CAPM)

- Cng thc tnh ton m hnh tng trng c tc

gP

Dr E +=

0

Trong :

P0: Ga tr rng nhn c t pht hnh c phiu. P0 bng gi bn c phiu u i

tr i chi ph pht hnh.

D: C tc phi tr hng nm.

g: T l tng trng c tc c nh

La chn sut chit khu tnh ton

- Sut chit tnh thng c chn nhiu nht l chi ph s dng vn ca u t.

Cc nh qun l chn chi ph s dng vn u t l sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn

c (Minimum Attractive Rate of Return MARR). Chi ph s dng vn s c

xc nh trn th trng vn v ph thuc vo ri ro ca cng ty hoc ti ro ca d n

- Sut thu li ti thiu chp nhn c (MARR) l mc li sut ti thiu (thp

nht) ca d n hay ca vn ch s hu m nh u t chp nhn c.

- Cch tnh v cc yu t nh hng MARR. Vic chn MARR cho cc d n

u t ph thuc vo cc yu t sau:

+ C cu ngun vn u t- phng php huy ng vn.

Khi vn u t l do ngn sch cp: Khi r l ty sut li nhun nh mc do

Nh Nc quy nh, hay li sut cho vay di hn ca Nh Nc hoc tc lm pht

ca nn kinh t.

Khi gp vn lin doanh c phn: Th r l li tc c phn (chi ph vn c phn),

hoc li sut tho thun ca cc bn lin doanh.


- 20 -

Khi vn u t l t nhiu ngun khc nhau, ta c cng thc tnh chi ph vn

trung bnh trng

krn

ii

n

iii

rrV

rVr ++=

=

=

1

1

*

Trong :

n: S ngun vn m d n d kin huy ng

Vi: Quy m ca ngun vn th I m d n huy ng

ri: Li sut ca ngun vn th i

rr: Li sut tnh n s nh hng ca mc ri ro ca d n

rk: Li sut tnh n s nh hng ca cc nhn t khc n d n

+ Lm pht v ri ro.

Do nh hng ca t l lm pht hng nm ilp m gia li sut danh gha R v li

sut thc t c mi quan h nh sau. Phng trnh Fisher: )1)(1()1( lpirR ++=+

Trong khi thc hin d n, thng xut hin cc ri ro (thin tai, ch ho, bt

kh khng) vi xc sut ri ro l qri ro. Khi li sut danh ngha v thc t thay i

theo phng trnh sau:

ruiro

irR lp

++=

1

)1)(1(

Tuy nhin, khng phi lc no vic p dng li sut thc t u c li. i vi d

n m chi ph v thu nhp c tnh theo th trng th p dng li sut thc t l tt

nht. i vi cc d n m chi ph v thu nhp c quy nh theo hp ng th vic

p dng li sut danh ngha l tt hn c.

+ nh hng ca thu sut. Nu gi R l li sut trc thu, r mc li sut sau

thu, T l thu sut th:

ttst RTr )1( =

+ Mc thu li bnh qun ca ngnh.

Khi xem xt MARR, nh u t cng rt quan tm ti mc thu li bnh qun ca

cc doanh nghip trong ngnh. Nh m nh u t c th xem xt c kh nng

cnh tranh ca d n i vi ngnh.

+ nh ch quan ca nh u t.


- 21 -

y l yu t quyt nh nht, nh hng n vic a ra MARR ca d n. Nh

u t sau khi cn c vo cc yu t trn s a ra quyt nh ch quan ca mnh

n nh mc MARR cho d n.

Khi quyt nh, cn cn c vo dng sau thu ca ch s hu. Thc cht, v mt

ti chnh MARR l chi ph c hi ca vn u t. Tuy nhin cn xc nh chnh xc

cc trng hp s dng MARR trc thu v MARR sau thu khi tnh ton cc ch

tiu hiu qu ti chnh ca d n.

- Nu doanh nghip u t sn xut theo cng ngh mi, MARR c xc nh

bng WACC (+) cng 5%--->7%

- Nu doanh nghip u t vo sn xut kinh doanh nhng sn phm cha c trn

th trng trong nc, nhng ph bin th trng nc khc, MARR c chn

bng WACC (+) cng 3% -5%

- D n u t m rng, thay th thit b, chn MARR bng WACC hoc gi s

dng vn vay di hn 7

2.1.5 Chn thi im tnh ton

Do ng tin c gi tr thay i theo thi gian, nn so snh nh gi chnh xc

v mt ti chnh ca d n cn quy i cc khon tin xut hin cc nm khc nhau

v mt nm tnh ton thng nht gi l nm gc. V nguyn tc nm gc c th chn

l nm bt k m kt qu so snh tng i gia cc phng n vn khng thay i.

Tuy nhin ngi ta thng ly thi im 0 lm nm gc. Vic chn lm mt bng

thi gian tnh chuyn tu thuc vo tng trng hp c th lm sao cho va n

gin c vic tnh ton, va m bo tnh so snh v tng hp. Nhng cho tin li,

thng trong khi lp d n ngi ta chn thi im tnh ton nh sau:

a. i vi d n thng thng, thi gian xy dng ngn

y l nhng d n tng i n gin, thi gian lm cng tc chun b v xy

dng trong vng mt nm th thi im tnh ton (nm gc 0 ca dng tin) thng

c chn l lc bt u b vn ra u t, hoc cng c th ly t khi nhn c

Quyt nh u t hoc giy php u t. T nm 0 tin hnh tnh ton theo tng nm

cho n nm ht thi hn u t.

b. i vi d n ln, thi gian xy dng di

7 Ngun: Th.S inh Th Hin, 2006 Lp v thm nh hiu qu ti chnh d n u t , NXB Thng k


- 22 -

i vi nhng d n ny c th chn thi im tnh ton theo cch trn hay cch

khc nh sau: i vi cc d n ln c thi gian xy dng thng ko di v c hai

gia on r rt: Giai on xy dng v giai on khai thc cng trnh. Vy chn thi

im tnh ton thng thng c chn l nm kt thc xy dng cng trnh v bt

u a cng trnh vo khai thc. Trong trng hp ny:

+ Cc khon chi ph thc hin u t c chuyn v thi im d n bt u i

vo hot ng (sn xut kinh doanh - dch v) thng qua vic tnh gi tr tng lai.

+ Cc khon thu v chi trong giai on hot ng (vn hnh) ca d n c tnh

chuyn v thi im d n bt u i vo hot ng thng qua vic tnh gi tr hin ti.

c. Trng hp d n c gn vo nm lch

Nu d n gn vo nm lch, chng hn nm 2009 l nm u tin ca d n th

nm gc 0 t u nm 2009, 1 l cui nm 2009 v cng l u nm 2010, tc l

nm th hai ca d n. Theo quy c v dng tin t th nhng khon u t ca nm

no (khng k thng no) u c th hin cui nm .

2.2 PHNG PHP XC NH GI TR TNG NG

Gi tr tin t tng ng

Trong phn tch so snh cc d n khc nhau, trong nhiu trng hp cn phi

quy i cc gi tr tin t cc mc thi gian khc nhau v cng mt mc thi gian

chung quy c. S quy i phi m bo tnh cht gi tr tng ng ca i lng

ang xt

- Quy i gi tr tin t cc b:

Gi s ta c mt biu dng tin t nh hnh v sau. S thi on trong thi k

phn tch l n, sut chit khu l r%. Gi A l gi tr tin t (thu, chi) ti thi on m, P

v F l gi tr tng ng tnh ti u thi on v cui thi on c minh ha nh

trn th. Xc lp quan h gia P, A, m, n v F, A, m,n, r

0 3 4 5 m n 2 1

T (nm)

P A

F

Biu dng tin t gi nh


- 23 -

+ Quy i tng ng A v P

Gi thit trong tnh ton ta chn 0 l gc thi gian tham kho. Ta cn tnh gi tr

tng ng vi gi tr A xut hin ti thi im 0.

Ta c:

P(1+r%)m = A hay P = A / (1+r%)m

+ Quy i tng ng A v F

Gi thit trong tnh ton chn n l gc thi gian tham kho. Ta cn tnh gi tr

tng ng vi gi tr A xut hin ti thi im n. Ta c

F = A(1+i%)n-mhay A = F / (1+i%)n-m

y l kt qu c bn cho tt c cc trng hp quy i khc, ta c cc dng

dng tin t c bit cn quy i

Cc k hiu

- P (present Value): Gi tr tin t thi im u, thi im hin ti ca d n.

- F (future Value): Gi tr tin t thi im cui, thi im tng lai ca d n.

- (1+r)n : H s gi tr tng lai dng chuyn 1 khon tin t gi tr mt bng

thi gian hin ti v mt bng thi gian tng lai

- 1/(1+r)n: H s chit khu (discount factor) hoc h s hin ti ho gi tr tin t

dng chuyn mt khon tin t gi tr mt bng thi gian tng lai v mt bng

thi gian hin ti.

- r: Li sut c biu th theo % lun c hiu l li sut ghp.

- n: S thi on (thng, qu, nm)

- A: Cc khon tin phn b u n, (A1, A2, An): L gi tr u n t cui

cc thi on 1,2 3ca mt chui cc gi tr tin t c tr s u n bng nhau.

Trong phn tch kinh t ca d n u t li sut r ny c dng quy i

tng ng gi tr tin t mc thi gian ny sang mc thi gian khc, khi n

thng c gi l li sut chit khu (Discount rate). Li sut chit khu biu th s

gim gi ca tin t theo thi gian. Vic xc nh tr s hp l ca li sut chit khu r

tnh ton phn tch d n u t l mt vn kh phc tp v s c trnh by

cc mc sau


- 24 -

2.2.1 Phng php xc nh gi tr tng ng ca dng tin t n v phn b

u

a. Phng php xc nh gi tr tin t thi im hin ti (P: Present value) khi

cho trc gi tr ca tin t thi im tng lai

nn

r

FP

)1( +=

- K hiu )%,,/()1(

1nrFP

r n=

+tc l cho F tm P vi li sut chit khu r% v

thi gian tnh ton n, c gi l h s hin ti ha gi tr tin t SPPWF (Single

Payment Present Worth Factor). Ta c th biu din li nh sau:

P = F(P/F,r%,n)

- V d 2.7: Mt ngi mun cho vay vn trong vng 10 nm vi li sut mt

nm l 10% v mun nhn c mt mn tin c gc ln li cui nm th 10 l 300

triu ng. Hi h phi cho vay thi im hin ti mt khon vn l bao nhiu?

b. Phng php xc nh gi tr tin t thi im tng lai (F: Future value) khi

cho trc gi tr ca tin t thi im hin ti:

Fn = P(1+r)

n

- K hiu: (1+r)n= (F/P,r%,n), tc l cho P tm F vi li sut chit khu r% v

thi gian tnh ton l n, c goi l h s tng lai ha gi tr tin t SPCAF (Single

Payment Compound Amount Factor)

- V d 2.8: Mt ngi cho vay 100 triu ng vi li sut mt nm l 10% trong

vng 10 nm. Hi sau 10 nm ngi y nhn c tng s c vn gc ln li bao

nhiu?

c. Phng php xc nh gi tr tng lai (F) ca tin t khi cho trc tr s dng

tin t u (A)

+=

r

rAF

n 1)1(

- V d 2.9: Mt ngi gi tit kim hng nm l 5 triu ng vi li sut hng

nm l 8% trong 4 nm, hi cui nm th 4 ngi s nhn c bao nhiu tin c

gc v li.


- 25 -

d. Phng php xc nh gi tr thnh phn ca chui tin t phn b u (A) khi

cho bit gi tr tng ng tng lai (F) ca n:

+=

1)1( nr

rFA

- V d 2.10: Mt doanh nghip b ra chi tiu u hng nm trong vng 5 nm

vi li sut chit khu l 5% nm. Hi nu cui nm th 5 gi tr tng lai tng

ng ca chui chi ph u hng nm l 300 triu ng th hng nm doanh

nghip chi ph l bao nhiu?

e. Phng php xc nh gi tr hin ti(P) ca tin t khi cho trc tr s dng tin

t u (A)

++

= nn

rr

rAP

)1(

1)1(

- V d 2.11: Mt ngi gi tit kim mun rt ra hng nm 300.000 ng tnh

trung bnh c gc ln li trong vng 5 nm. Hi ngi phi gi tit kim nm th

nht l bao nhiu, cho bit li sut hng nm l 5%.

f. Phng php xc nh gi tr thnh phn ca chui tin t phn b u (A) khi

cho bit gi tr tng ng hin ti (P) ca n.

- By gi ta mun b mt khon tin P vo hin ti nhn c mt chui hon

nin A trong n nm.

- Ta tm gi tr hin ti ca chui hon nin bng tng ca cp s nhn hu hn

vi cng bi q= 1/(1+r)

nr

A

r

A

r

A

r

A

r

AP

)1(...

)1()1()1()1( 4321 +++

++

++

++

+=

++

++

=

+

+

+=

)1()1(

1)1(

)1(1

11

1

11

)1(

r

rr

r

r

A

r

rr

AP n

nn

1 3 4 5 . 2 0

6


- 26 -

++

= nn

rr

rAP

)1(

1)1(

+

=

++

=1)1(1)1(

)1(nn

n

r

rF

r

rrPA

- V d 2.12: Mt ngi vay 20 triu trong 5 nm, li sut l 10% nm, hi ngi

phi tr n hng nm l bao nhiu k c gc v li c th hon li mn n y.

Hay mt doanh nghip b ra chi ph u hng nm trong vng 10 nm vi li sut

chit khu l 5% trong mi nm. Hi nu u nm th nht gi tr hin ti tng

ng ca chui chi ph u hng nm l 2 t th hng nm doanh nghip chi

ph l bao nhiu?

2.2.2 Phng php xc nh gi tr tng ng ca dng tin t phn b khng

u

a. Dng tin bt k

Cc khon tin thng khng ging nhau, thi im xut hin khng theo quy

lut. tnh gi tr hin ti hoc gi tr tng lai ca mt dng tin bt k ta tnh ring

cho tng khon ri cng li.

- Cng thc tnh nh sau:

knkn

kkn rCF

=

+= )1(0

= +

=n

kk

k

k

r

CP

0 )1(

- Khi t sut sinh li r khng thay i theo cc nm ta c : kn

k

n

kkn rCF

=

+= )1(0

= +

=n

kk

k

k

r

CP

0 )1(

- Trong tnh ton khi khng c thng bo g khc th xem nh r = const

- V d 2.13: Mt doanh nghip u t mua mt my c gi tr l 100 triu ng,

my hot ng trong 4 nm, sau khi tr i chi ph vn hnh hng nm my thu c

mt khon li nhun v khu hao c bn nh sau: cui nm th nht: 40 triu; cui

nm th hai: 50 triu; cui nm th ba: 40 triu; cui nm th t: 30 triu. Hy tnh

hiu s ca cc khon thu chi trn qui v thi im hin ti vi li sut chit khu

r=10%.

- Khi cho trc cc tr s A khng u v phi tm gi tr tng ng thi

im cui trong tng lai (F):

0 8 7 6 5 1 2 4


- 27 -

=

+=n

t

tntn rAF

0

)1(

- Khi san u hng nm tr s P:

1)1(

)1(

++

= nn

r

rrPA

- Khi san u hng nm tr s F:

1)1(

1

+= nr

FA

b/ Trng hp cc tr s ca dng tin thay i tng ln hay gim xung theo cp s

cng, cp s nhn, theo mt t l phn trm 8

- Ngi ta lp sn cc bng tnh ton cc h s chit khu cho cc trng hp

tnh ton v k hiu nh sau :

Cn tm bit K hiu h s chit

khu Cng thc tnh v h s chit khu

F P (F/P, r%, n) nrPF )1( +=

P F (P/F, r%, n) nrFP

)1(

1

+=

P A (P/A, r%, n)

++

= nn

rr

rAP

)1(

1)1(

A P (A/P, r%, n)

++

=1)1(

)1(n

n

r

rrPA

F A (F/A, r%, n)

+=

r

rAF

n 1)1(

A F (A/F, r%, n)

+=

1)1( nr

rFA

P G (P/G, r%, n)

++

= nn

rr

nrrGP

)1(

1)1(2

A G (A/G, r%, n)

+=

1)1(

1nr

n

rGA

2.3 CC PHNG PHP SO SNH LA CHN PHNG N U T

C s la chn phng n u t. C s la chn phng n cn c vo

cc mc tiu u t, c hai nhm mc tiu nh sau :

8 Tham kho ti liu: GS.TSKH Nguyn Vn Chn - trang 63 (2003), Kinh t u t Xy dng Nh xut bn xy dng


- 28 -

- Nhm mc tiu kinh t :

+ Li nhun ln nht (mc tiu tng qut v bao trm nht)

+ Chi ph nh nht (cng nhm li nhun ln nht)

+ Cc t doanh s hoc t mc tiu th phn

+ t mt mc tho mn nht nh v li nhun

+ Duy tr s tn ti ca doanh nghip

+ t s n nh ni b

+ v.v. ...

- Cc mc tiu x hi (nng cao i sng x hi v li ch cng cng)

T chc pht trin cng nghip ca LHQ (UNIDO) nu ra 6 mc tiu x hi lm

cn bn khi xt cc d n u t cho cc nc pht trin :

+ Nhu cu tiu dng tng hp (Aggregate consumption)

+ Phn phi thu nhp (Income Distribution)

+ Tc tng trng thu nhp quc dn (Growth Rate of Natiional Income)

+ To vic lm (Employment Level)

+ Mc t lc cnh sinh (Self-Reliance)

+ Nhng mong mun chnh ng (Merit Wants), v d pht trin gio dc, y t,

x hi v.v...

Nh vy khi xt chn phng n c nhng quan im khc nhau.

+ Quan im ti chnh: y l quan im gn nh chnh thng ca cc doanh

nghip, c nhn hay nhm cc nh u t thng c bit ch n quyn li ca

chnh h. Tuy nhin Nh nc vi chc nng qun l ca mnh phi bo v cc li ch

ca qun chng trn quan im quc gia.

+ Quan im x hi:Chnh quyn a phng thng khng i din y cho

quan im quc gia do

H khng c kinh ph xc nhn tt c cc h qu c th ca d n nhng

phm vi ngoi thm quyn ca h

H thng chu p lc ca cc nhm dn c a phng b nh hng ca d n.

+ Quan im kinh t: y l quan im nhn v phc li tng hp di hn ca

quc gia. Khi phn tch mt d n phi xt ng thi cc quan im . Vi cc d n

Nh nc v nguyn tc ngi ta quyt nh mi cp phi nh gi d n qua


- 29 -

quan im quc gia v c cn nhc nhng tn tht ca quc gia t c mt s

mc tiu pht trin vng.

2.3.1 Nhm ch tiu tnh

- Cc ch tiu tnh dng tnh cho cc d n c quy m nh hoc tnh ton

nh gi s b thng l tnh cho mt nm. Do khng k n s bin ng ca cc

ch tiu theo thi gian ca c i da n cng nh khng tnh n gi tr ca tin t

theo thi gian. Mt s phng php ch tiu hiu qu ch yu:

2.3.1.1 Ch tiu chi ph cho mt n v sn phm

a. .Cng thc tnh ton

C = N1

(K. Vc.Rc + Vl Rl+ Cn) t min (5.26)

Trong

N: Nng sut nm ca phng n (my mc hay nh my)

Vc: Vn u t cho TSC ca phng n

Vl: Vn lu ng hng nm ca d n

Rc: Li sut i vay vn c nh u t cho phng n tnh cho nm hay l li

sut tnh thit hi ng vn (nu l vn t c)

Rl: Li sut vay vn lu ng

Cn: Chi ph sn xut hng nm bao gm chi ph c nh v chi ph thay i nhng

khng gm chi ph tr li vn vay cho TSC v Vn lu ng

K: H s ch mc vn vay cho ti sn c nh trung bnh phi chu li hng nm

hay ni chung cho mt thi on no nh thng, qu, khi li sut Rc phi thay

i cho ph hp vi thng hay qu). Nu p dng phng php khu hao u n, cc

khon khu hao thu c khi bn hng (v cha em tr n) c em a vo vng

quay kinh doanh ngay vi li sut cng bng Rc th K=1/2. Nu s tin khu hao thu

c ch i n cui nm s em tr n th: K=n

n

2

1+

- V d 2.14:

STT CC CH TIU PHNG N A PHNG N B

I Cc s liu xut pht

1 Gi mua my (nghn ng) 120.000 140.000

2 Tui th my (nm) 10 10

3 Nng sut nm (ci) 14.000 17.500


- 30 -

4 Li sut %nm v mt s liu cho sn 6% 6%

II Tnh ton chi ph

A Chi ph c nh hng nm

1 Khu hao hng nm 12.000 14.000

2 Tin tr li hng nm tnh t cng thc V*r/2 3.600 4.200

3 Cc chi ph c nh khc (cho sn) 1.900 4.375

Cng cc chi ph c nh 17.500 22.575

B Chi ph thay i hng nm (cho sn)

1 Chi ph nhn cng 25.000 29.000

2 Chi ph vt liu 28.000 27.500

3 Ch ph nng lng v cc chi ph thy i

khc 3.140 4.050

Cng chi ph thay i 56.140 60.550

C Tng chi ph c nh v chi ph thay i 73.640 83.125

D Tnh chi ph cho 1 n v sn phm

1 Chi ph c nh 1,25 1,29

2 Chi ph thay i 4,01 3,46

3 Chi ph c nh v chi ph thay i 5,26 4,75

Phng phn B tt hn phng n A

Nu ta lp hm s chi ph cho 2 phng n (k hiu Ya, Yb) ta c:

Ya=Ca + VaX = 17500 + 4,01X

Ya=Cb+ Vb = 22575+ 3,46X v cho Ya=Yb ta s tm ra im ct ca chng ti X0 theo

cng thc: X0 =VaVbCbCa

Ta c X0 = 227,90,446,3

575.22500.17=

ph

sn phm

Trong

Ca, , Cb: Chi ph c nh hng nm ca A, B

Va, Vb: Chi ph bin i cho 1 sn phm ca A, B

X: S lng sn phm lm ra trong nm

X0: S lng sn phm m vi n hai phng n

C chi ph bng nhau (xem s )

T s ta thy: Khi s lng sn phm lm

ra trong nm XX0 th phng n B tt hn. Nu d n

sn xut nhiu loi sn phm khc nhau ngi

Y

X 0 X0=9,227

Ya

Yb

Y: Chi ph tnh cho nm (ph thuc vo X) X: S sn phm lm ra trong nm Ya, Yb: Hm s chi ph ca phng n A,B


- 31 -

ta cn dng ch tiu chi ph tnh cho 1 ng gi

tr sn lng k hiu l Cds la chn phng n

C = N1

(K. Vc.Rc + VlRl+ Cn) t min (5.27)

Trong

G: Gi tr sn lng t c hng nm (tnh theo tin)

b. u nhc im ca phng php

- u im ca phng php

+ Tnh ton n gin hn so vi cc phng php khc

+ t chu nh hng ca quy lut cung cu ca th trng u ra ca sn phm, v

trong tnh ton khng phn nh trc tip ch tiu li nhun, do kt qu so snh c

th phn nh ng bn cht u vit ca phng n k thut v mt kinh t hn.

+ Thch hp vi so snh cc phng n nh v khi chng ch khc nhau v chi

ph, cn gi c th ging nhau.

- Nhc im ca phng php

+ Ch tnh ton cho 1 nm nn khng phn nh c tnh hnh bin ng ca cc

ch tiu theo dng thi gian.

+ Khng phn nh c kt qu y ca c i d n.

+ Khng phn nh c hin tng trt gi theo thi gian.

+ Khng phn nh gi tr sn lng ca d n v kt qu tnh ra khng so snh

c vi mt ngng hiu qu ti thiu cho php, khng phn nh ch tiu li nhun.

mt ch tiu c bn ca d n.

+ Ch cho kt qu so snh trng vi khi dng phng php so snh theo ch tiu

li nhun khi gi c sn phm ca cc phng n bng nhau.

2.3.1.2 Ch tiu li nhun cho mt n v sn phm

a. Cng thc tnh ton

Phng php trn ch ph hp khi gi c sn phm ca cc phng n ging

nhau, trong thc t gi c sn phm cc phng n thng khc nhau do cht lng

sn phm v quan h cung cu khc nhau. Do , phi dng phng php so snh theo

ch tiu li nhun, theo phng n tt nht khi n tho mn iu kin sau:

Ld = Gd Cd t max (5.28)

Trong :


- 32 -

Ld: Li nhun ca mt sn phm

Gd: Gi bn mt sn phm

Cd: Gi thnh mt sn phm

b. u nhc im ca phng php

- u im ca phng n

+ Tnh ton tng i n gin so vi cc phng php khc.

+ C tnh n nhn t gi tr sn lng ph hp vi thc t l gi c sn phm

ca cc phng n khc nhau do cht lng hay quan h cung cu khc nhau.

- Phn nh c nhn t li nhun, mt ch tiu hiu qu m cc nh kinh doanh

quan tm nht.

- Nhc im ca phng n

+ Nhc im ging nh phng php so snh theo ch tiu chi ph

+ Chu s tc ng ca quan h cung cu, do hai phng n c cng mt gii

php k thut c th c khon thu li nhun khc nhau do quan h cung cu tc ng

cc a phng khc nhau hay thi gian khc nhau. Do tnh u vit v mt kinh t

ca phng n k thut b bp mo.

+ Ch ph hp khi cc phng n c s vn u t xp x bng nhau v n cha

xem xt vn trong mi quan h gia li nhun v vn u t b ra ban u

- V d 2.15: cho 2 phng n A, B sau

STT CC CH TIU PHNG N A PHNG N

B

1 Vn u t (ng) 100.0

Documents

Quan Tri Du an