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  • 2

    2010 /

    1818 H Street NWWashington DC 20433: 202-473-1000: www.worldbank.org-: [email protected] .

    / . , , .

    , , .

    , , .

    , , . / , .

    , Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rose-wood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone: 978-750-8400; fax: 978-750-4470; Internet: www.copyright.com. .

    , , , . : Office of the Publisher, The World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2422; e-mail: [email protected].

  • 3

    5

    6 , 6 7 10 14 17 18 19 20 21 1. 23 2

    2.1 25 2.2 302.3 32

    3. 333.1 333.2 353.3 373.4 433.5 46

    4. 48 4.1 484.2 504.3 584.4 , 594.5 60

    5. 61 5.1 , 615.2 635.3 - 63

  • 4

    5.4 645.5 685.6 715.7 725.8 735.9 74

    6. 75 6.1 756.2 776.3 826.4 , 826.5 836.6 84

    7. 86 7.1 867.2 917.3 967.4 100

    8. 8.1 , 1028.2 1028.3 1048.4 1048.5 1058.6 1058.7 106 8.8 1068.9 106

    9. , 110 9.1 1109.2 , 1119.3 1189.4 123

  • 5

    , : , , , , , , -, , , , , .

    . :

    , / / , /

    / /

    / , /

    / - -

    2008 5,9,10 , 2008 11 , , , , , , .

    , , www.worldbank.org/southgobi .

    , //, , .

  • 6

    2009 10- 6- , . , , . 5 . 5 . 5 , 2009 6- - 8.2 .

    , , ,

    . , , . , , , , .

    . 45 14,000 , .

    ()

    (000 /)

    200+ 15,000 1500 2012

    40 10,000 1000 2009

    20 6,000 500 2012

    20 2,000 150 2015

    40 12,000 150 2003

    50 5,000 400 2008

    50 5,000 400 2015

    200+ 14,000 600 2015

    * 50 2,000 4000 2012

    * 20 250 1000 2012

    7800

  • 7

    5-10 20 .

    . 10-30 . . 10-30 . . 18-55 . .

    . .

    20 2 . . 15 0.9 /. .

    .

    2.3 . .

    . . . 4,1 . .

    . . , , , , , , . 2015 1,4 .

    ( )

    ( )

    ( )

    16,772 238 42 280

    7,967 112 29 141

    33,544 490 69 59

    1,258 18 20 38

    5,032 70 23 93

    16,772 238 42 280

    81,344 1,166 225 1,391

  • 8

    , . :

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  • 9

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  • 10

    , , .

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    , , $/

    , , $/

    , , $/

    , , $/2/

    , , $/2/

    0,52 0,17 0,05 0,05 0,05 0,17 0,17

    0,61 0,17 0,08 0,08 0,08 0,40 0,40

    0,11 0,06 0,03 0,07 0,45 0,06

    1,20 4,57 0,19 0,29 0,55 0,41 0,03

    15,000 . , . , 5- . .

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  • 11

    , .

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    . . .

  • 12

    10 20 30

    . 33,00 26,80 24,70

    .

    56,50 50,30 48,20

    .

    55,50 53,15 50,10

    D. -

    95,22 87,72 81,62

    . -

    94,92 87,72 81,62

    F.

    83,54 89,84 84,04

    G. - -

    81,64 80,84 76,24

    , :(1) 12 .

    10-28 . (2) 1,8

    20 , 15%- . 0,02 , 1,05 .

    (3) 10 - 0,02 . (2)- .

    (4) , . .

    (5) - - 0,01 . 85 .

    (.)

    - - 0.01 . . . . 85 . 125 . - : - .

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    . - . .

    , . , . . , .

  • 13

    20 6,2 . , - 1,5 . .

    . .

    .

    D.

    E.

    F.

    G.

    10 4,194 2,723 2,785 299 318 1,030 1,149

    20 9,164 6,222 5,865 1,537 1,537 1,272 2,399

    30 14,140 9,727 9,370 3,451 3,451 2,997 4,462

    : . 100 , 20 15%- , 4,1- . ( 30 ).

    (, ..)

    . . 50 .

    2007

    . . , . , .

    () ( )

    - 2008-10 230 69

    - 2008-09 329 99

    - 2009 40 12

    - 2011-15 293 88

    892 268

    . .

    , , . , , . 85 . .

    . , . .

    -- . , 20 . ,

  • 14

    . , .

    2011

    2012 . . 3.5% , -, . , . .

    , 2007-2020

    . :

    2 (#2) 2005 , #3 2008-2011 , 2013 . 2-2012 , 3 2016 .

    - 50- 2010 .

    .

    , 300- 5 ( ) . 2013 .

    2006 220 300 . . 400 . . 2008 , . - , . 2015 .

    100- - . . - .

    , 50-100- . . . .

  • 15

    450- . 2012 .

    3,600- . . . 2012-2013 .

    . 2008 5 600- . , 2000- . . , 2013-2014 .

    650- . . 400- 250 - .

    . .

    - 255- . - 120- . .

    . : #5, , . #5- . 2013 .

    #5 , 2013 , 2 . , 670 . #5- . 2012 .

  • 16

    () () ()

    ( )

    2008 902

    2009 902

    2010 +50 () 952

    2011 952

    +416 ( ) 750

    2012 +18 (#2) 1350 207

    2013 +270 (#5, 1- ) 1,620 450

    +220 ( )

    2015 +277 ( , 1- ) 2,117 400450

    2016 -107 (#3) 2,009

    2017 2,009

    2018 +270 (#5, 2- ) 2,279 450

    2019 2,279

    2020 2,279

    . . .. 255 .

    . - , .

    ,

    . :

    -

    , .

    -

    .

    #5- . .

    - .

    ,

  • 17

    , .

    . , 30- . , 60% .

    2016 . #5- 2013 - . - - - . 2011-2014 . 100% .

    - . 2013-2014 . . .

    . :

    .

    2020 . 50,000 3 2020 350,000 3 .

    500,000 3 . . :

  • 18

    (

  • 19

    , , .

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  • 20

    . . , , . .

    , .

    , , , , , . //, // . , // , , - , . .

    .

    , , . .

    , , , .

    2015 5 . . . , .

    1,454

    1,277

    10

    } , -, , / ,

    28

    125

    4

    4

    6

    1,150

    700 ,

  • 21

    100 ,

    350 , . .

    2,711

    450 750

    207

    5- 1-

    450 ,

    450

    , 1-

    450 . , .

    400

    4 , , 1

    262

    224 ,

    35

    3

    5,577

    . . . 2002-2008 80 130 . ( ) ( IBRD ) . . (IFC )

    . .

    ,

    . , .

    . , , , , . .

  • 22

    . , , .

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  • 23

    11.

    . , , , ,

    .

    1.1

    . , , . .

    1.1 . , . . . .

  • 24

    . , , . , . , . . , - .

    2015 . , . , . . .

  • 25

    2

    2.1 1.1-

    , , , , .

    20 100 2 .

    15 60 0,9 .

    , , 2,3 .

    .

    .

    . . , .

    ()

    (000 /)

    200+ 15,000 1500 2012

    40 10,000 1000 2009

    20 6,000 500 2012

    20 2,000 150 2015

    40 12,000 150 2003

    50 5,000 400 2008

    50 5,000 400 2015

    200+ 14,000 600 2015

    * 50 2,000 4000 2012

    * 20 250 1000 2012

    7800

    2.1

    * (30%- )

  • 26

    ,

    4.5 1.9 , ( 1.1- ). 6.0 . , , , , 4 ( 2.1).

    2.1.

    . 2009 2 . 10 .

    . , . ,

    , - 1 ( 2.2).

    2.2

    . 20

    . 120 , 70 , 50 . 2008 QGX Limited 2008 -- QGX- . M-- . QGX Limited 2011 2012 6 , 20 .

  • 27

    . . :

    , . 2,400-4,165 /- . . . .

    4,165-5700 / , . , ( 20-30%) , .

    5,700-8,480 / . , 2 . 2 . . , , , , , , / . ( 2000 ) , , . .

    92-98%- , 6,200/- . . , .

    , . :

    3-9%- , , . .

    . , . , , . , , , , , . .

    2.1

  • 28

    ,

    2 1- (MAK) , , (-MAK) . 134 . 2 .

    2.3 (MAK), , ,

    , 2008 4 . , , 259 145 . 2 6-8 .

    : 2009-1-22

    , , , 120-150 , 60 . , 120 . . 16 -

  • 29

    . .

    ,

    250 -, - , . 2 . 1992 . - . , . , . 6600 , .

    20 - . . 51 500,000 . .

    , 200 - . 1.387 1.33%- , 0.47 1.397 0.98%- , 0.24 . 32 , 987 . 50 .

    , . 5 . 3 . . , .

    . , , . .

    2.4

  • 30

    100 - 36.4 9 . ( ) . ( ) .

    150 - 7 - . 50 164 - . 0.54%- , 0.019 %- 220 . ( , 3 ) . 1 ( 50 ). .

    2.2

    . 20 1.2 . ( 30 , 20 , 110 ). , , , .

    . , , . , . 2007 365 6 , 3 . . . 2008 50% - 6,7 75%- .

    . 2008 8% , 2013 20 . . 3 .

    , , . 2008 8- 240 / (35 .//) . 18-55 . 10-30 .

  • 31

    28-45 . . :

    11,400 (10. /)- .

    , 28 ( 2.2).

    11.5 . (http://www.southgobi.com/s/OvootTolgoi.asp) .

    3 . : , , , .

    2.2. /

    14,87

    ,

    1,78

    2,72

    , 3,46

    , ,

    5,46

    / 28,29

    , 10,00-32,00

    . . 2009 2 , 90 . 30 .

    : QGX Ltd. 2008, 1 23

    60 . . . 35 . .

    , . 2009 1 - 110 ., 75 . . (2008 300., 125 . ) . .

    , . , , . 3,600- , . 14 . ( ) . , . .

    5 20 , 15 . 100 ., 60 .. 2 .

  • 32

    , 0.9 . .

    2.1- . 10- . . .

    2.3 2008 5

    3.7 . 4-5 (1.5 ) . 2009 , , 5.4

    . 2015 . . .

    2009 1 3200 . . 5 2003- 2008 . 1.75 . ( 3,850 .) .

    450,000 3,850 . 1.746 . . 330,000 /10 / 900 . 297 . 60,000-80,000 230-300 . . , 2.3 . .

  • 33

    , 3

    5 80,000 , .

    , .

    4 : , , ,

    .

    , , , , , , , , .

    80,000 1,4 .

    .

    230%, 350%- .

    , , , .

    .

    3.1

    . , . 5-10 8 . 2.1- ( 3) 9700 80 . .

    . 4,1 . , , . ( 3.1). 15 1% ( 5 1,05 ).

  • 34

    . . . 2007

    3000- . 2000 . , .

    , , 44,798 37,762 5 180 -0.17

    , 11,724 12,888 10 860 -0.12

    , 100,907 129,091 10 860 0.24

    , 228,408 296,905 10 2,000 0.26

    ,

    1,000 110,522 29 18,000 0.43

    , 66,888 100,931 14 540 0.47

    , 10,000 20,000 3 600 0.63

    , 92,447 162,326 14 269 0.74

    , 1,000 18,000 27 1,900 1.35

    , 1,000 83,000 35 6,000 2.03

    , 1,000 110,000 24 2,150 11.00

    . . - :

    --

    .

    3.1

    . ( : )- . .

    . .

    1.0 . . , , .

    , . .

  • 35

    10- . . 450- 18 2000 . . ( )- .

    3.1- . 2015 ( ) 80,000 .

    a

    , , d

    , 2,000 6,200 8,200 16,772

    , , 950 2,945 3,895 7,967

    4,000 12,400 16,400 33,544

    150 465 615 1,258

    600 1,860 2,460 5,032

    e 2,000 6,200 8,200 16,772

    9,700 30,070 39,770 81,344

    a. 2.1- , b=a x 3.1, =a+b. d=a x (1.01)^5 + b x (1.01)^3 + c x 1.01, e. .

    3.1 2015

    3.2

    , . . , , , ,

    , .

    . : , , , . .

    , . . 2 , 1 . , . , .

    , .

    , , , . .

  • 36

    . .

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    , . , . , , .

    . , . , . .

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  • 37

    , . . , . : , , , , .

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  • 38

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    .

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    3.2- , .

  • 39

    . . ( ) . - .

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    . , . , , , .

    . . , , , , .

    5 80,000

    , 1.4 . . 1.2 , 225 ( 3.3).

    (..)

    (..)

    (..)

    16,772 238 42 280

    7,967 112 29 141

    33,544 490 69 559

    1,258 18 20 38

    5,032 70 23 93

    16,772 238 42 280

    81,344 1,166 225 1,391

    3.3

  • 40

    3.4

    4.792 78.867.60 377.933.539

    3.195 500.000 1.597.333

    8.051 1.317.00 10.603.167

    2.013 2.677.00 5.388.801

    671 2.388.00 1.602.348

    1.175 / 12.944.44 3.459.721

    302 13.047.00 33940.194

    - - - 85.626.864

    490.151.968

    24 8.695.64 208.695

    2.876 m 86.96 250.087

    (100-200) 12.460 m 52.17 650.087

    , (250m3/) 2 (250m3/) 260.869.50 521.739

    4.500 144.93 652.174

    15 18.147.27 272.209

    ( ) 4.792 ( ) 300.00 1.437.600

    3.992.592

    (150-500 ) 7.188 m 130.43 937.565

    1 52.174.00 52.174

    (12.000m3/) 1 (12.000m3/) 5.217.391.00 5.217.391

    4.792 853.00 4.087.576

    10.294.706

    (5MW CHP) 1 8.000.000.00 8.000.000

    (2.500kva) 2 349.694.50 699.389

    (10kV) 76.672 15.60 1.195.700

    (0.4 kV) 383.360 9.23 3.538.413

    7.987 171.00 1.365.777

    14.799.279

    (820 mm) 19.168 m 345.00 6.612.960

    (100-300mm) 28.752 m 176.78 5.082.853

    (50 \I/) 6 3.000.000.00 18.000.00

    72 30.000.00 2.160.000

    4.792 930.00 4.456.560

    36.312.373

    www.worldbank.org/southgobi . , , (A ; B ; C )- .

    3.4- . , 5 - . 450- .

  • 41

    7.275 / 103.09 750.000

    2 28.900 115.600

    76.672 128.000 128.00

    383.360 140.000 140.000

    7.987 158.000 158.000

    1.291.600

    558.637.887

    9.067 m 198.00 1.795.369

    1.795.369

    , . . 3.5- . , . , , , , .

    3.5

    .

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    3.6- 15,000 . .

  • 42

    . 2.3 . 3.5 . 26 .

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    . .

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    .

    3.6

    A

    ./3 . /3 . / . / . / . /2/ . /2/

    0.52 0.17 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.17 0.17

    0.61 0.17 0.08 0.08 0.08 0.40 0.40

    ,

    0.11 0.06 0.03 0.07 0.45 0.06

    1.20 4.57 0.19 0.29 0.55 0.41 0.03

    15000 . - , , B - , 5- , C - ,

    .

    . .

    , ,

    3.7- , , . , , - , , , . , . . , , , .

  • 43

    3.4

    , , 45 , 165 . 80 90 .

    , , , . . , 5-6 . , , , , . . .

    , (17,000 ) . . , 6- . , .

    , .

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    2001

    2020 , . (, , , )- . /, , , -/ , , . , /2008 , / 10- .

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  • 44

    - 2 . 10,500 2020 120,000 2 . . .

    5 . :

    , , , ;

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    , (, , ), , , , , , , , , ,

    - , ;

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    .

    2008 . : , , , , , , , . 2008 5 www.worldbank.org/southgobi . .

    , , , , , , . 10-20 , 7 .

    2 . 180 40-50 2 . . 2009 3 . 196 .

    - 215 20% . . 2009 , . 2008 4.5 . 7-8 ,

  • 45

    , , , . , , , , . 56-, 25 - 35- , 56 . 47.8 .

    , , ( , ) , , .

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    .

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  • 46

    .

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    .

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    , . .

    , , , , . , , . . , .

    3.5

    . :

    , , , ;

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  • 47

    ( ), . (, , , , , ) . :

    - , ;

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    -

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    , .

  • 48

    4

    .

    2-4 .

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    .

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    .

    , :

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    ( 1.8 ., 300,000 .);

    T ( 20 ); r

    (15%, 0.15);

    x ;

  • 49

    v - ( 0.02 , 0.08 );

    d ,

    . , .

    4.1- 2 5% , 3 10% , 4 15% . 15% 10% . 10 - 4 ( 10% 5.1 /-, 9.0 /-) . 400 16 / .

    4.1

    :

    2 .; 1 500,000 . .

    ( ) 1 /- 3 , 8.5 .

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  • 50

    . .

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    , 5-10%- .

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    .

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    , . 4.2- , , - . .

    4.2

  • 51

    . . .

    2008 2 . ( ) . . .

    () , . .

    4.7 (687 .) . 2011 , 60 , . 2009 1- , 2011 . 2009 1- , .

    . , -,

    .

    . , 44 . , , , , . . - . 161 / (US$ 23.50) . .

    . . 40% . . , . 9 3 . 2005 500 , 75 , 110 .

    . ( )

  • 52

    . . .

    . . 170 / (US$24.80) 123 / (US$18) . 2 15%- .

    -

    - . - . - , , - .

    . (4,047 ) $85- . 4000 $25 - .

    - - . 2006 . : 15 ; 1.9 ; 0.4 ; 0.6 .

    2006 18.3 . .

    . 2004 , , , . , .

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    . .

    . 25 / .

    , , , .

    , . 50 , - 300 . - - .

  • 53

    - . 60 . .

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    , , - .

    . . .

    4.1-

    4.3

    , . . .

    4.2- . ,

    . , . 20 6.2 , 1.5 .

  • 54

    A.

    -

    -

    B.

    -

    -

    -

    C.

    -

    -

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    -

    D.

    -

    -

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    (2)

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    km

    )(4

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    m)

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    (860

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    90 k

    m)

    (490

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    10

    $21.0

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    $44.5

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    $17.7

    0

    30

    $12.7

    0

    $12.7

    0

    12.0

    0

    $27.0

    0

    $26.7

    0

    $12.1

    0

    $15.2

    0

    (3)

    (240

    km

    )(3

    50 k

    m)

    (360

    km

    )(7

    60 k

    m)

    (410

    km

    )

    10

    $4.8

    0

    $7.0

    0

    $7.2

    0

    $15.2

    0

    $8.2

    0

    20

    $8.2

    5

    $12.6

    0

    $13.0

    0

    $27.4

    0

    $14.8

    0

    30

    $7.1

    0

    $10.9

    0

    $11.2

    0

    $23.6

    0

    $12.7

    0

    $1.0

    0

    (4)

    $23.5

    0$18.0

    0

    (5)

    (3,1

    72 k

    m)

    $31.7

    2(3

    172

    km)

    $31.7

    2(3

    ,634

    km

    )$36.3

    4(3

    ,634

    km

    )$36.3

    4

    10

    $33.0

    0

    $56.5

    0

    $55.5

    0

    $95.2

    2

    94.9

    2

    $83.5

    4

    $81.6

    4

    20

    $26.8

    0

    $50.3

    0

    $53.1

    5

    $87.7

    2

    $87.7

    2

    $89.8

    4

    $80.8

    4

    30

    $24.7

    0

    $48.2

    0

    $50.1

    0

    $81.6

    2

    $81.6

    2

    $84.0

    4

    $76.2

    4

    (1)

    $12

    .

    $10-$

    28-

    .

    (2)

    $1.8

    ,

    20

    ,

    15%

    ,

    1

    /

    -

    $0.0

    2,

    1.0

    5

    .

    (3)

    10

    ,

    1

    /

    $0.0

    2.

    (2)-

    .

    (4)

    .

    .

    (5)

    1

    /

    $0.0

    1

    .

    $85-

    .

    4.

    1.

    (

    .

    .)

  • 55

    A. B. C.

    D.

    E.

    F.

    G.

    10 4,194 2,723 2,785 299 318 1,030 1,149

    20 9,164 6,222 5,865 1,537 1,537 1,272 2,399

    30 14,140 9,727 9,370 3,451 3,451 2,997 4,462

    : . $100/ , 4.1- , 20 , 15%. ( 30 ).

    4.2 ( )

    / , . .

    . 4.3- , . 50 . .

    /- () / ()

    /( )

    380 0.10 38.00

    378 0.10 37.80

    177 0.13 22.82

    935 98.62 14.43

    20 0.10 2.00

    550 0.15 84.15

    234 0.10 23.10

    804 109.25 15.99

    4.3

    . : , - - , . 30 . 50 100 . , .

    , , , . .

  • 56

    , .

    . . ( 4.1- ).

    . , , . - . , , .

    10-30 . . 110 ./ . 80 . .

    .

    , , , . - 7-8 . 190 13.30-15.20 . . 1

    . . , .

    ( 1 - ) , . ( ) . 30 . .

    1 80 . . .

  • 57

    4.1

    40%- . , . 1960- 400 . .

    2004 . 2007 , . , .

    2008 , . , , . , ( ) .

    , 2008 . 400 - . ( ) 2-3

    . .

    , .

  • 58

    4.3 2005

    2006-2021 . ( ) , . 2021 . ,

    .

    2007 . , . 4.4- . 1.8 . .

    4.4 , 2008-2020

    :

    , . .

  • 59

    , 4.4- . 1 2008 300,000 . .

    () ( .)

    2008-10 230 69

    2008-09 329 99

    2009 40 12

    2011-15 293 88

    892 268

    4.4

    - . . 2009 , , , , .

    , . , . . . , . 265 80 . .

    4.4 ,

    .2 100 ( ) 260 , . . .

    2 2008 , , .

    4.5

    , , . , . . 2007 9000 , 15000 . ,

  • 60

    . , . .

    20 , . . , , .

    4.5

    :

    . . ,

    , .

    . - . .

    , , , .

    .

    , .

    , , .

  • 61

    5

    2012 .

    10 3 (#5, , ) 2013-14 .

    2012 450 - . 2 ., 670 . .

    . :

    o - 2012 .

    o - #5- (300) .

    o - #5, - .

    2009-2012 550 . 2017 200 . .

    . .

    , 30- .

    5.1 ,

    , . 91%, 96%- . - , , , , .

    2001 , , . :

    ( #2, #3, #4), , 5

    ().

  • 62

    - 3,594

    - 16.5%

    - 3,000

    130

    - 3,132

    , 17.4%

    - 2,587

    : 2007 ,

    ().

    (). -

    (). .

    ().

    (). ().

    . . ,

    ()

    /

    ..

    #2 21.5 16.4% 18.0 31 62.2% 23.3%

    #3 136 21.0% 107.4 518 49.3% 34.2%

    #4 540 14.8% 460.1 1045 52.6% 39.3%

    48 18.5% 39.1 181 62.0 28.1%

    28.8 22.8% 22.2 120 56.5% 43.8%

    5.1 -

    : 2007 ,

    . , . 2001 76.5% 2007 100% .

    , , , () . , .

    5.2 -

  • 63

    . - .

    35- .

    - :

    ( - ) 220- . 2009 . - 220- .

    2 - , 2012 .

    5.2

    . 5.1- - . . .

    5.1 2007-2020

    5.3 - 2007 -

    12 631 . - . - 3.5%- .

    - (2000-2007 4.0% -) . - . . . 23% .

    - . - .

    2012 294, 2020 650 . :

    2012 ( 200 ) 2016 ( 300 ).

    2009 2014 10 . 100 .

  • 64

    2012 2018 20 . ( 200 ).

    , .

    . .

    .

    80,000 10- . , . 120,000 20 .

    2020 30- .

    -

    - , , . 3.0%- . .

    5.4 2012-2013

    . , 5 (#5), - . 2012 . 2013-2014 .

    -

    - 647 2007 (631) , . 20 . #4- ( 13% ) .

    2002 #2 2005 , #3- 2008, 2011 , - 2013 . - 2006 - #2- 2012 , # 3 2016 , - . #4 2020 . - , 2012 629 , 2016 521 .

    - . - 255

  • 65

    . 2011 . 2012 , .

    5

    5 ( ) . 2008 7 5 .

    300, 700/ . 650 . . 2013 .

    2009 1 15 . . #5- .

    70 - . 50 116 . , . , .

    2010 . ( ) , . .

    220 484 . . 2006 300 . . 312 . . 400 . . 2008 , 300 . , .

    - , , , . . - , , . 2015 .

    - . 100 - 219 . 2000 160 . ( 1600 .) .

  • 66

    - - - .

    , 50-100 - . 2005 55-60 . .

    , 5:1 . . - . .

    , . 3x150 - , , . , .

    650-750 . ( 1500 . ) 30 . .

    , . 1.8 .

    5.1- . 2013 .

    3600 (6 600 )- . 2005 , 2 - . .

    2008 , . :

    2,976 . ( 827 .).

    300 .

    13.6 . 3,150 /, .. 40%.

    , 2 7 .

    1,300 500- - 200- .

  • 67

    10,800 .

    2.2- , . , .

    2012-2013 .

    - . . .

    2008 , . :

    600 , 4,144 ( 79%);

    8% 350

    . 580./.

    . . 1,500 . .

    . 55 . . .

    . - 2013-2014 . .

    () , ( ) . .

    - 2 , . 0,8 . - 650 - (IGCC) . 400 - 250 - .

    - 2009 2014 . - 3,5

  • 68

    . . 390 . 600 . . 35 . . - 2007 45 . . - .

    , -

    . . .

    -

    120 , 204000 . 18 / . 2007 130 , (, ) - 38,4 . .

    . :

    -

    .

    - . .

    , .

    5.5

    5.3- . , . , 2012-2013 .

    1 , . 3 4 , 4-5 . , - , .

    2012-13 , #5, - . 2014 - . . #5, , - .

    , 2012 . 2009 .

  • 69

    ()

    ( )

    #5 300 $1300-1400/ 2013 . 2009 1 . , .

    50 $95,000/ 2010 . .

    220 $1420/ 2015 . - .

    100 $1600/ 2015 . - .

    50-100 $1600/ 2012 . , .

    450 $1450-1550/ 2012 . . . .

    3600-10800 $827/ 2013-2014 . .

    600 $580 2014 . . - .

    IGCC ()

    250 () $600/ 2014-2015 . - . . .

    -

    255 $204,000/ / ; $18/

    - .

    5.3

    . - . .

    . 5.4- .

    . .

    , #5 ( , )- . , .

    - , .

  • 70

    .

    # 5, , . 5 - . :

    .

    5 , 2013

    ..

    ()

    $/ $/k/ $// $/ / $/

    #5

    /

    300 40 1,240 127 38.0 36.0% 12.0 3,150 5% 32.9

    300 40 1,240 127 38.0 36.0% 37.0 3,150 5.0% 52.8

    300 40 1,110 114 33.0 33.0% 30.0 5,100 7.6% 37.9

    300 40 1,110 114 33.0 33.0% 55.0 5,100 7.6% 51.7

    300 40 1,110 114 33.0 33.0% 0.0 5,100 7.6% 21.3

    /

    150 40 1,500 153 33.0 32.0% 35.0 5,100 7.6% 47.1

    150 40 1,500 153 33.0 32.0% 5.0 5,100 7.6% 29.9

    ( 2012 ). 1 2 . 670 . (35%- ) . #5- 310 . . , .

    #5 .

  • 71

    5.6 , 5.5-

    . , 5.2-5.4-

    () a () a

    () b

    ($ )

    2008 902

    2009 902

    2010 +50 () 952

    2011 952

    2012 +416 ( )-

    -18 ( #2) 1350 750207

    2013 +270 (#5 ) 1,620 450

    2015 +220 ( )+277 ( ) 2,117

    400450

    2016 -107 ( #3) 2,009

    2017 2,009

    2018 +270 (#5 ) 2,279 450

    2019 2,279

    2020 2,279

    a. . - . . 255 .

    5.5

    20% . . .

    642 , 220- , , 150 - 2012 . 207 . . 150, 220- 640- 375 - 7% . .

    . 2009-2012 550 . . 2013-2017 200 . .

    5.2 - ,

    5.3 ,

  • 72

    5.4 , ,

    5.7

    , , , .

    5.1- 5.5- . , . ( , ) , .

    ( )

    2015 62 . , 2020 50 . .

    , , , , , 30- . /USAID/

    , , 60 .

    5.1.

    . - . .

  • 73

    . ( 20 ./ ). .

    , - . , 2014 , . - - 68 . . - 34 . .

    - 20-34 . ( ).

    5.8

    . 4 .

    2016 200- . 2016 . .

    2013 #5- - . -

    - . 2011-2014 , . 100 .

    - . 2013, 2014 - . . .

    .

    1.2 -

    1.3

  • 74

    5.9

    :

    -

    -

    5

    . .

    2015 .

  • 75

    6

    .

    2020 .

    o 2020 350,000 3 .o 500,000 3/ .

    : 300,000 3 , 25 40-60 .

    , 260 . 500 . .

    10 :

    o .

    o , .

    ( 3 2.5 .) . :

    o .

    o

    o

    6.1

    50,000 3 2020 350,000 3 6.1- . . , , 5% .

    6.1 (3/)

  • 76

    . 5 80,000 . 2008 - 2020 110,000- . 150-180 .

    55,000 2015 125,000 , 2020 165,000 . 2015 24,3003 , 2020 30,000 3 - .

    ,

    , , 55,000 6,200 3 . . 6.1- 100-130 . , .

    / 3/ 3/ //

    10 1-15 4,000 2,000 15,000 133

    18 0.4-27 5,000 3,200 29,000 110

    15 1-10 3,500 1,000 10,000 100

    6.1.

    , . . 95,000, 10-30 1000-3000 3 .

    (/)

    (2003)

    (3/)

    , 4 3,400,000 13,600

    35 100,000 3,500

    35 260,000 9,100

    45 120,000 5,400

    3,880,000 31,600

    6.2.

    5%- ( ) 2015 4,200 3, 2020 5,400 3 .

    , . 32,000 3 ( 6.2).

    5%- 2015 45,000 3 , 2020 58,000 3 .

  • 77

    9,000 3 ( ). , , 2015 120,000 3, 2020 200,000 3 .

    . . , , , . .

    . 100-200 . 400-600 . , 400 .

    2015 20 22,000 3 . 2020 50 55,000 3 .

    110,000 67,000 3 . 30 3 . 1 82,000 3

    2020 500,000 .

    41,000 3 .

    2015 10,000 3, 2020 20,000 3 .

    . 2020 , 15,000 3/ .

    , , 2015 . , 2020 12,500 3 . , 1000 2020 10,000 3 .

    . . . 2020 , , 15,000 3 .

    6.2

    , , (, , , ) .

    , , . , , . ,

  • 78

    . . , , .

    (), ( )- . , , . ( 6.2) . , , . , . , .

    . ( ) . .

    . . .

    6.2

    . ( ) ; , . .

    , , . ( ) . , ( , , ) . , .

    , , : ,

    1-2%- 50-100- , 680,000-1,370,000 3/ .

    , , , 580,0003/ . 1980-1990 , , .

    AQUIFER RECHARGE AREA DRY VALLEY PERENNIAL DISCHARGE AREA

    very low contemporary recharge rates from exceptional rainfall events

    occaslonal recharge in flash floods

    via phneatophytic vegetation

    SATURATED ZONE

    UNSATURATED ZONE

    in adjustment to modem clirmale

    present groundwater table scan still be falling

    groundwater table

    ancient

    100-000

    1000-10.000

    10.000-100.000

    10.000

    groundwater flow with aquifer residence time (years)

  • 79

    25-27 40-60%- .

    . , 1.3 3/ .

    .

    ,

    6.3- . . , , , . , . , .

    (350,0003) ,

    . ( 50 ) , . 0.1 1 35 3 , 100- ( 50-100) 3,500 3 .

    1- 35 3 ( 96 3) . . . (5502) 40 100 42 3/ .

    4,0002 . 1-2%- (7,0002) , 250-500 3/ (680,000-1,370,000 3/) .

    6.3

  • 80

    (200

    135,616 60,000115,000

    61,233 8,500

    89,589111,000

    310,616 69,733 199,589

    6.3. , (3/)

    , / .

    165,000 2, 74,500 2, 109,0002 . 1/ 950,0003/ . 30%- 300,0003/ .

    , , , .

    (50-170 ) 10 40 . , , , . (170 ) . 6.3- , 50% .

    . 40 60.000 3/ . .

  • 81

    6.3- .

    .

    . (2007) ( 19) , . 480 3/ 1,3 3/ .

    6.5- 1500 / 8 , 2 , 10 , 2 . (2008 ), , . ( ) 10-15% . 260 . .

    ,1033//2 , 3/

    >1 25 31 19

    0.1-1.0 77 138 71

    0.03-0.1 2 89 19

    0.003-0.03 3 3 4

  • 82

    6.3

    - . , , . : ( 6.4).

    - 740 2500/ (216,0003/) , , . 20 . . - 540 1500/ (130,0003/) , , , .

    - 2005 400 . - - ( 500 .).

    6.4 ,

    10 , .

    ..- %

    21

    2

    26

    3

    51

    5

    126

    25

    224

    35

    23 29 56 151 259

    13

    5,421 3.305 1.290 2.058

    . , , , .

    :

    250 . .

    , .

    . , .

    , .

    . .

  • 83

    6.5 ,

    550,000-1,370,0003/ (200-500 3/) . , . 80,0003/ 2020 350,0003/ . 2020 .

    , . , , .

    . , . ,

    6.4

    . .

    . , , , , .

    ,

    , . ( , , , , , ).

    , (-) . - ,

  • 84

    , . .

    ( ) , .

    , : , , .

    , , . .

    , . : (2004) , . , , , .

    . , . , , . .

    6.6

    :

    , (-) , ;

    , , , , (), ;

    - , ;

    ( , ) ;

    , , ;

    (/3)

    20.0 30.0

    10.0 30.0

    1. , 2. , , 3. ,

    10010080

    120120120

    , 10.0 30.0

    10.0 30.0

    ( )

    , , , . 1%

    6.6 2006

  • 85

    10- ;

    , , ;

    ;

    ;

    , , . , , ;

    , ;

    (3 )

    (5 )

    /

    /

    /

    +

    ,

    ,

    ( , )

    3,000

    1,000

    1,000

    2,000

    20,000

    40,000

    2,000

    5,000

    180

    180

    36

    36

    20

    12

    36

    10

    540,000

    180,000

    36,000

    72,000

    100,000

    100,000

    200,000

    400,000

    480,000

    72,000

    50,000

    200.000

    2,430,000

    , 2-3 . 6.7- 2.4 . .

    , .

    :

    .

    6.7.

  • 86

    7

    , .

    .

    .

    (, , , )- .

    .

    , .

    . .

    , . , , . , .

    7.1

    .

    , . , .

  • 87

    , , , . 20 , 10 . , , . . . , .

    7.1 -

    . ( ), . .

    , . . .

    , , . , .

    , .

    .

    , .

    : (2009).

    . .

    , . . . . , ( ) ( ) .

  • 88

    , , . , , . :

    42.3- ( 42.7 . )

    9- , .

    , .

    ( ) , , , , .

    . , , . ( 7.2) . . .

    . , . .

    , , . , . , , .

    7.2

    The Yanacocha Association and Yanacocha Womens Association

    . , , RE, - . 1 () , , , , , , . 36 .

    : - , , : . , : , , , : IDRC/ 2001.

  • 89

    . 8,000 , . , .

    , , . , , . 26

    7.3.

    , , . , , , . . , , , , , , , , , . , , , , .

    1996 .

    :: ,

    , , , .

    : . ,

    . ,

    . : ,

    ,

    . .

    , , , , , . , , .

    . , , .

  • 90

    y . . .

    , , , ( , , ) . , , , . .

    , , , , . . , , .

    7.4.

    , -

    , , . , , . - , . .

    , 230 , 2 , 530 . , , .

    :

    , . . , , - . , .

    2007 , . , , , .

  • 91

    . , , , , , , .

    7.5

    2002 : , , . , , , , , .

    , 5 10 , , .

    : (2007),

    7.2 ,

    . 3- , , , , .

    , ,

    . . , .

    7.6

    , . .

    1980- CVRD . 5,500 , 150 . 3 . , , . , . 2006 , , 110,000- .

    . 55 . , . 2003 41 , . , , . .

    : a

  • 92

    . ( , , , , , )- . . ..- .

    . ( ) , , . , , .

    , . .

    .

    ,

    , . . .

    , . . , . .

    , , , . . ( , ), ( ) .

    , , . .

  • 93

    7.7

    2001-2008 . , .

    , , (, , ) . , . .

    , . , , . , , .

    , . . , , , , . .

    . , .

    : ABC Te, , , 2008 8- 18. . http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/content/2008/20080818_boom/interviews.htm

    / ,

    /- . /- , . , , , .

    7.8. /- ,

    500-1800 /- , 100- . /- :

    50% . 2006 , 10%

    . 2005 51%

    . - ,

    . . 36% (

    16 ).

    : (2006).

  • 94

    , , . . , .

    , . : -- , , , , , . . / 18.8 -- 7.7 .

    ,

    , , , . , , , , .

    , , , , . , , ( ). : , , , .

    . - 2008 : , , , . ... , .

    , . . , .

  • 95

    7.9.

    . 2007 50 , . , , , . , , , .

    . : 1. , ,

    , ,

    , , ,

    2. , . , , ,

    , .

    , , , .

    3.

    ( )- ,

    , . .

    4. , .

    . .

    5. , , , ,

    . ,

    .

    .

    : A. (2008) , , : , (2008 8- 19- . : http://www.hsrc.ac.za/Research_Publication-7627.phtml

  • 96

    7.3

    . , .

    , . . , , , , , , . . .

    6,407,038 43,957

    2,996,077 5,945

    206,084 4,470

    39,448,676 234,694

    :

    7.1 (-) 2009 1-

    . : (i) (ii) , (iii) , , . 6- .

    : , .

    , . .

    , , .

    .

    , .

    , .

    , , , .

    , , , , .

    , , .

    7.2

    ( ). 0.7 . ( ) .

  • 97

    , , , . , .

    , . , . , . , , . . , .

    ,

    , , . A , . , . , .

    , . 2001-2002 . , , . 2006 .

    , . . , .

    . . , , .

    . , , ,

  • 98

    , , . . , , , , ( 7.7).

    . , .

    , . , , .

    . , .

    . .

    , , . .

    . 20- 200 . 50 . .

    , , , . . 1990- , , .

  • 99

    7.10.

    1984 170 . 8 . 100,000 , .

    2000 50 . . 10 .

    , . , . . 15-20 . .

    , , . , , . , .

    : --- (2009 4- ).

    , . .

    ,

    ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    , ,

    ,

    . :

    7.11.

  • 100

    7.4

    , . : , ,

    o , , ;o ;o ;o

    o ,

    o ;

    ,

    o , o , ,

    o o

    o o

    , ,

    o o , , o o , ,

    o

    , o ,

    o , , o

    o , ,

    o

    o , , o

    , , , . , , .

  • 101

    7.12.

    , , , , , , ( , , , )- , .

    , , ( , , , , ) , , , .

    , .

    . ,

    ( ). ( ),

    , , , .

    ( ) , ( ) .

    , , , .

    , , .

    , .

    , , , , , , .

    : - , , , , 1000

  • 102

    8

    , , , , . .

    . , .

    , , .

    , , .

    8.1 ,

    , , , , , . 0.1% 16,500 .

    . , , . , , .

    8.2 , ,

    . , .

    , . , , . , . ( 100 ), , , , ( )- .

  • 103

    8.1.

    : , , , , , . :

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