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© 2015 IHS
Presentation
ihs.com
IHS AUTOMOTIVE
Global Industry Outlook
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE|
ISTANBUL MAY 29th 2015
Marcus Zahren, Sr. Manager, Aftermarket Products EMEA
Agenda
© 2015 IHS
TEKRAMRETFA EHT GNITCAPMI SCIMANYD TEKRAM
tsaceroF selaS elciheV thgiL ’stekraM egraL
setaR noitarteneP elciheV
tekraM-nI stcudorP
stcepsorP tekramretfA & MEO evirD scimanyD noitatnemgeS
Supplier Dynamics
KOOLTUO NOITAREPO NI SELCIHEV
dnert OIV
dnert ega egarevA
dnert noitubirtsid ssalc egA
TNEMPOLEVED DNAMED
nevird mk egarevA
ycneuqerf ecnanetniam & riapeR
sdnert ygolonhceT
SDNERT YLPPUS
selasretfA MEO
tekramretfa tnednepednI – yrtsudni straP
MAI noitubirtsiD
level egarag dna remusnoc dnE
YRAMMUS
2
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
© 2015 IHS 3
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
MARKET DYNAMICS IMPACTING THE
AFTERMARKET
© 2015 IHS 4
Large Markets’ Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
2015: 16.9 million
5,2 3,4
2,2 3,0 1,6 3,2
24,7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35U
nited
Sta
tes
Japan
Germ
any
Fra
nce
Bra
zil
Russia
India
Chin
a
Annual Light Vehicle Sales Volume (in millions, 2006 – 2022)
Source: IHS Automotive Light Vehicle Sales Forecast
Top 8 markets account for
close to 70% of global sales
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
China Remains Dominant; Little Sales Growth Expected for Developed Markets
© 2015 IHS 5
Vehicle Penetration Rates
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900U
nited
Sta
tes
Jap
an
Germ
any
Fra
nce
Bra
zil
Russia
India
Chin
a
Light Vehicles in Operation Per 1000 People (2006 - 2022)
Source: IHS Automotive
2014 Economic growth creating
large increases in personal
transportation need/desire,
fueling vehicle sales growth
– and for years to come.
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
Although Volatile, BRIC Markets Still Offer the Most Growth Potential
© 2015 IHS 6
Products In-Market
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900U
nited
Sta
tes
Japan
Germ
any
Fra
nce
Bra
zil
Russia
India
Ch
ina
Source: IHS Automotive
Count of Nameplates (2006-2018)
2014
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
More Variety to Continue Rising in BRIC and Other Developing Markets
© 2015 IHS
60
89
107
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021
Millio
ns
7
Segmentation Dynamics Drive OEM & Aftermarket Prospects
0.8
7,2
4,5
2.6
0,3
2,6
0 2 4 6 8
A-Segment
B-Segment
C-Segment
D-Segment
E-Segment
Full-Frame
Millions
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
Growth of annual production:
2009-2015: +29 m. and 2015-2022: +18m.
© 2015 IHS 8
Supplier Dynamics
18% 18%
27%
39% 41% 41%
47%
51% 53%
0,0%
10,0%
20,0%
30,0%
40,0%
50,0%
60,0%
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022
% S
ha
re o
f Glo
ba
l Ou
tpu
t M
illio
n U
nit
s
1M+ Platform < 1M Platform Share
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
Mega Platforms Drive Production Growth:
Consolidation Accelerates with Greater Cross Segment Application
© 2015 IHS 9
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
VEHICLES IN OPERATION OUTLOOK
© 2015 IHS
Global VIO trend– light vehicles
10
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
7,8
8,5
11,8
27,5
34,7
40,8
155,2
116,1
279
335,6
1139,9
8,3
10,3
15,5
43,2
45,6
49,1
180
226,8
291,1
376,2
1393,8
1 10 100 1000
EFTA (CH, IC, LI, NO)
South Africa
Turkey
India
Brazil
Russia
APAC w/o. China
China
EU 25 (w/o. BG, CY, MT)
NAFTA
World
VIO in Mio units
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Overall growth 2012 -2017: 254 Mio. or 22%
© 2015 IHS
Global VIO trend– commercial vehicles > 3.5 tons
11
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
0,2
0,4
1
2,1
2,6
3,9
3,4
7
10,2
7,8
50,6
0,2
0,5
1
2,4
3,2
3,8
4,4
7
11,3
12,4
59,1
0,1 1 10
EFTA
South Africa
Turkey
India
Brazil
Russia
APAC w/o China
EU
NAFTA
China
World
VIO in Mio units
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
Overall growth World 2012 -2017: 8,5 Mio. or 17 %
© 2015 IHS
Global Average age trend – light vehicles
12
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
4,2 4,4
8,4 8,0 8,6 8,8 9,8 10,0 10,3
11,6 13,1
4,6 5,4
8,4 8,4 8,6 8,8 9,9 10,0
11,0 11,8
14,4
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
Ave
rag
e a
ge in
ye
ars
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
Average age rising in China –stable across the world
© 2015 IHS
Global age class distribution trend - light vehicles
13
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
Shifts in age class distribution towards older segments tend to be in favor of
independent aftermarket – exception NAFTA
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
> 10 years
8-10 years
4-7years
0-3 years
© 2015 IHS 14
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
DEMAND DEVELOPMENT
© 2015 IHS
Repair & maintenance frequency
15
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
DAT Report: frequence of repair events/ vehicle age Germany
up to 2 years
2-4 years
4-6 years
6-8 years
8-years and older
For all vehicle ages, the trend of repair frequency is going down due to
improved parts quality and extended maintenance intervals.
© 2015 IHS
Average km driven
16
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
2.600
2.650
2.700
2.750
2.800
2.850
2.900
2.950
3.000
3.050
3.100
3.15020
00
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
20
16
2017
2018
2019
2020
Europe- Total km driven annually, Passenger vehicles, in billion km
Average km driven is recovering slowly, but will never reach previous peaks.
Urbanization, aging population and alternative transportation means are causes.
© 2015 IHS
Technology trends
17
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
• Security:
Connected car
Who owns and who processes the repair and maintenance data?
Autonomous driving
TPMS
• Sustainability:
CO2 and emission reduction
• Alternative propulsion
• Engine downsizing
• Turbo charged petrol engines
• Parts remanufacturing
• Comfort:
Infotainment
Driver assistance systems
New technologies will have a huge impact on quality and quantity of aftermarket
demand but will be introduced only gradually with the slowing renewal of VIO.
© 2015 IHS 18
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
SUPPLY TRENDS
© 2015 IHS
OEM aftersales
19
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
• OEM defending their original parts and service image, for example
• Audi PR campaign „demonizing“(5102) MAI eht
• Major OEM distributing parts of smaller OEM, for example
• Volkswagen‘s NORA Zentrum offering parts for Daihatsu, Honda, KIA and
Mitsubishi
• OEM (re-) launching Aftermarket parts brands, for example
• Ford Motorcraft in Germany (2014)
• OEM using IAM expertise, for example
• PSA – Eurorepar buying Online parts shop Mr Auto (2015)
• PSA Original distributing through Certus (D), subsidary of Autoteile Post
(2009)
OEM are differentiating their aftersales strategies: competition and cooperation
with IAM and other OEM depending on specific market conditions.
© 2015 IHS
Parts industry – Independent aftermarket
20
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
• Mergers & acquisitions, for example
ZF Friedrichshafen acquiring TRW Automotive (2014-)
Mahle took over Behr
• Strategic partnerships and joint ventures, for example
Behr-Hella
Hella TMD Friction
• Private Equity engagement, for example
KPS Capital partners founded Chassis Brakes Interantional by taking over
Bosch‘s (ex- Allied Signal) brake foundation business (2012)
• Globalization, for example
Chinese manufacturer, like GSP expanding in Europe
The aftermarket continues to be pillar of growth and profitability for the parts
industry. Globalization and cross selling opportunities.
© 2015 IHS
Distribution IAM
21
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
• Concentration of traditional IAM distributors, some examples
Wessels + Müller took over Trost SE(D) (2014), Trost and KSM merged (2009)
Stahlgruber took over PV Automotive (2013)
Rhiag (I)took over Era (I) (2014)
• Geographical expansion, for example example
Rhiag took over Italparts (PL) (2015)
• New cooperations, for example
Nexus Automotive, buying group focusing on new target markets: Eastern
Europe, Africa, Middle East, South America
• New powerful players for example:
• Amazon, Ebay, Alibaba
Stagnating/ decreasing market volume and growing importance of online trade
intensify change the competitive landscape rapidly.
© 2015 IHS
End consumer and garage level
22
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
• unfavorable economic situation forcing many consumers to reduce
repair spend
• internet providing price transparency
• OEM reducing number of dealers
• IAM branded chains gaining awareness
• IAM repairers requiring investment into new technologies and training
• growing share of volume steered by intermediates like insurers, fleet
operators and leasing companies
• vehicle and parts identification remaining key for providing good quality
and fast service
• Connected car will revolutionize service communication
Different segments like owner types and vehicle age require distinct service
offers and marketing strategies.
© 2015 IHS 23
VI. ANNUAL TAYSAD AFTERMARKET CONFERENCE
SUMMARY
© 2015 IHS
Summary
24
IHS Automotive Conference | Spring 2015
• The aftermarket remains a complex and high-competitive business,
increasingly effected by globalization.
• In mature markets, reduced repair spend and reduced failure rates
mostly offset positive effects of an aging vehicle population.
• The traditional market division into OEM authorized and Independent
segments is being replaced by more differentiated structures.
• The broad mix and lagged renewal of the vehicles in operation across
most countries will slow down but not hamper the effects of new vehicle
technologies on the repair and maintenance market.
• The right mix of efficient online parts marketing & sales, global sourcing
and logistics combined with excellent local customer service might be a
good definition of a success formula for the aftermarket.
About IHS
© 2015 IHS
IHS Automotive, part of IHS Inc., offers clients the most comprehensive content and deepest
expertise and insight on the automotive industry available anywhere in the world today.
With the addition of Polk in 2013, IHS Automotive now provides expertise and predictive insight
across the entire automotive value chain from product inception—across design and production—to
the sales and marketing efforts used to maximize potential in the marketplace. No other source
provides a complete picture of the global automotive industry.
Solutions for the aftermarket include detailed data and forecasts on the vehicles-in-operation as well
as vehicle specification, part number and application research.
IHS iss’yadotepahstahtsaeralacitircniscitylanadnathgisni,noitamrofnifoecruosgnidaeleht
business landscape.
IHS has been in business since 1959 and became a publicly traded company on the New York Stock
Exchange (NYSE: IHS), in 2005. Headquartered in Englewood, Colorado, USA, IHS is committed to
sustainable, profitable growth and employs about 8,800 people in 32 countries around the world.
Contact us
© 2015 IHS
www.ihs.com
Marcus Zahren
Senior Manager, Aftermarket Products EMEA
Phone: +49 201 1857 9403| Mobile: +49 173 7182086
Thomas Renkawitz
Director Business Development
Automotive Markets EMEA
Phone: +49 69 20973 213 | Mobile: +49 170 2926765
