Âåíåñóýëà

Êîíñòàíòèí Ñòûðèí (ÐÝØ)

9 äåêàáðÿ 2015 ã.

1 / 30

Leonardo Vera, �Venezuela 1999-2014: Macro-Policy, Oil

Governance and Economic Performance,� Comparative Economic

Studies, vol. 57, 2015, pp. 539-568

Ricardo Hausmann and Francisco Rodriguez (eds.), Venezuela

before Chavez: Anatomy of an Economic Collapse, The

Pennsylvania State University Press, University Park, 2014

Carmen M. Reinhart and Miguel Angel Santos, �From Financial

Repression to External Distress: The Case of Venezuela,� NBER

Working Paper 21333, July 2015

2 / 30

Âåíåñóýëà: ôàêòû

• Îäíà èç ñòðàí-îñíîâàòåëüíèö ÎÏÅÊ; íà ìîìåíò ñîçäàíèÿ

ÎÏÅÊ òðåòèé (ïîñëå ÑØÀ è ÑÑÑÐ) ïî îáúåìó äîáû÷è

ìèðîâîé ïðîèçâîäèòåëü íåôòè.

• Â 1960-1970-å ãã. ñàìàÿ áîãàòàÿ ñòðàíà â Ëàòèíñêîé

Àìåðèêå; ïî ïîäóøåâîìó äîõîäó ïðåâîñõîäèëà íåêîòîðûå

åâðîïåéñêèå ñòðàíû (Èñïàíèÿ).

• �Îáðàçöîâàÿ� ðàçâèâàþùàÿñÿ ýêîíîìèêà.

3 / 30

Âåíåñóýëà: òåêóùåå ñîñòîÿíèå ýêîíîìèêè

• Íåôòü � 50% ÂÂÏ è 95% ýêñïîðòà.

• Èíôëÿöèÿ 150%

• Ãëóáîêàÿ ðåöåññèÿ: ðîñò ÂÂÏ -3%

• Doing Business: 186 èç 190

• Çàùèòà ïðàâ ñîáñòâåííîñòè: 5 èç 100; �ýêîíîìè÷åñêàÿ

ñâîáîäà�: 176 èç 178 (Heritage Foundation)

• �Ñàìûé ðèñêîâàííûé èç âñåõ ðàçâèâàþùèõñÿ ðûíêîâ�

• Õðîíè÷åñêîå áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà

• Äåôèöèò ìíîãèõ òîâàðîâ ïåðâîé íåîáõîäèìîñòè

4 / 30

Ïóñòûå ïîëêè â ìàãàçèíàõ, 2014 ã.

5 / 30

Âåíåñóýëà è Ëàòèíñêàÿ Àìåðèêà 1/2

6 / 30

Âåíåñóýëà è Ëàòèíñêàÿ Àìåðèêà 2/2

7 / 30

Âûðó÷êà îò ïðîäàæè íåôòè

8 / 30

ÂÂÏ

9 / 30

Èíôëÿöèÿ

10 / 30

Òó÷íûå íóëåâûå

11 / 30

Äîëÿ íàñåëåíèÿ çà ÷åðòîé áåäíîñòè

12 / 30

Öåíà íà íåôòü è ñòðàíîâîé ðèñê

13 / 30

Âàëþòíûå èíòåðâåíöèè

14 / 30

Ãîñðàñõîäû

15 / 30

Ðåàëüíûé îáìåííûé êóðñ

16 / 30

Íîìèíàëüíûé îáìåííûé êóðñ

17 / 30

Ïðîöåíòíàÿ ñòàâêà

18 / 30

Äåíåæíàÿ ìàññà

19 / 30

Âàëþòíàÿ âûðó÷êà

20 / 30

Îò÷èñëåíèÿ íà �ðàñõîäû ïî óñìîòðåíèþ�

21 / 30

Çîëîòîâàëþòíûå ðåçåðâû

22 / 30

Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 1/7

23 / 30

Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 2/7

24 / 30

Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 3/7

25 / 30

Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 4/7

26 / 30

Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 5/7

27 / 30

Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 6/7

28 / 30

Áåãñòâî êàïèòàëà 7/7

29 / 30

Íàäåæäà íà ïåðåìåíû ê ëó÷øåìó?

30 / 30