Phan tich PET

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2013

Text of Phan tich PET

  • www.vcsc.com.vn | VCSC Viet Capital Securities | 1

    See important disclosure at the end of this document

    Petrosetco (PET)

    18 March 2011

    13.500 ng - MUA

    30/01/2012

    S chuyn hng thng minh qua Samsung Vi th trng in thoi thng minh Vit Nam chun b bng n, chng ti cho

    rng Petrosetco c nc c thng minh khi chuyn t phn phi sn phm ca

    Nokia sang Samsung. Samsung vt th phn Nokia trn th gii v chng ti

    cng k vng Samsung s sm vt Nokia ti Vit Nam. Vi nhiu dng in thoi

    thng minh ph bin v th mnh marketing, Samsung l i tc tt hn cho

    Petrosetco. Chng ti pht hnh bo co ln u cho PET vi khuyn ngh MUA v

    gi mc tiu l 28.000 ng.

    Samsung l nh sn xut in thoi thng minh hng u th gii

    Ln sng chuyn i t in thoi c tnh nng c bn sang in thoi thng minh trn

    qua th trng in thoi di ng ton cu, cho php Samsung nh bt Nokia khi v tr

    u ngnh bng cc dng in thoi thng minh sng to. Cuc cch mng in thoi

    thng minh cng lan sang chu vi mc tng trng nm ngoi t hn 67%, dn

    u cng l Samsung.

    Th trng in thoi thng minh Vit Nam sp bng n

    Th trng in thoi thng minh Vit Nam vn cn ang manh mn khi in thoi c

    bn vn chim n 90% th phn, ring Nokia chim n 50%. Tnh hnh ny s thay i

    khi t l thm nhp in thoi thng minh ti Vit Nam hin l 11% tng ln mc trung

    bnh 50% ca cc nc trong khu vc. Hin ti, Vit Nam vn cn giai on u trong

    chu k chuyn i in thoi thng minh, ngha l in thoi thng minh s cn tng

    trng tt trong vi nm ti khi Vit Nam tng tc theo kp vi th gii.

    Petrosetco c li hn khi chuyn sang phn phi sn phm cho Samsung 90% doanh thu ca Petrosetco n t hot ng phn phi, v mt na doanh thu phn

    phi n t mng in thoi di ng. Petrosetco l nh phn phi cp 1 ca Samsung ti

    Vit Nam, v c th phn phi n 50% in thoi ca Samsung vi mng li 1.700 i

    l. Cc khon doanh thu khc ca cng ty n t phn phi cc sn phm CNTT (15%

    doanh thu), phn phi sn phm khc lin quan n ha du v cung cp dch v du kh.

    Cc nh u t vn nh gi thp tm nh hng ca Samsung Giao dch ti mc PER ch l 3,7 ln vi li sut c tc n 13,3%, c phiu PET c kh

    nng tng gi mnh nu vic chuyn i phn phi ny mang li hiu qu cao, mc khc

    kh nng gim gi cng khng ng k. Nu chng ti p dng mc PER l 7,5 ln i

    vi EPS nm 2013 l 3.704 ng, gi mc tiu ca chng ti s l 28.000 ng. Cc cng

    ty phn phi trong khu vc ng Nam giao dch ti mc PER trung bnh l 8,1 ln.

    Nguyn An Thin Trang Chuyn vin

    trang.nguyenan@vcsc.com.vn +84 8 3 914 3588 ext. 116

    Bo co ln u

    Gi mc tiu 28.000 ng T l tng 107%

    Phn phi

    Gi tr vn ha 42 triu USD

    SL c phiu lu hnh 69,0 triu

    Mc cao nht 12 thng 15.900 ng

    Mc thp nht 12 thng 10.400 ng

    TL s hu nc ngoi 10,3%

    Gii hn TL s hu nc ngoi 49,0%

    C cu c ng

    Tp on Du kh Vit Nam 35,6%

    Qu u t Si Gn - H Ni 15,9%

    PVFC 4,1%

    Phng Tun H 0,9%

    Khc 43,5%

    M t cng ty Petrosetco, mt cng ty con ca Tp on Du kh Vit Nam, c thnh lp vo nm 1996 nh l mt cng ty cung cp dch v du kh. Trong nhng nm gn y, chin lc ca cng ty l tr thnh cng ty phn phi vi 1.700 i l. i th gn nht FPT ch c 1.000 i l. Phn phi sn phm ca Nokia l hot ng kinh doanh chnh chim gn 50% doanh thu, nhng vo nm 2012, cng ty quyt nh chuyn sang phn phi cho Samsung. Petrosetco bt u nim yt trn sn HSX vo nm 2007.

    Tng trng v nh gi

    2011A 2012E 2013E 2014E 2015E

    Doanh thu (t ng) 10.321 10.474 12.046 13.703 15.636

    LN hot ng (t ng) 535 324 329 378 493

    Bin LN hot ng (%) 5,2% 3,1% 2,7% 2,8% 3,2%

    LN rng (triu ng) 285 216 256 364 478

    EPS (ng) 4.086 3.132 3.704 5.281 6.933

    Tng trng EPS (%) 37% -23% 18% 43% 31%

    C tc (ng) 1.800 1.500 1.800 2.000 2.200

    BPS (ng) 17.357 19.200 21.105 24.386 29.119

    PER (ln) 3,3 4,3 3,7 2,6 2,0

    PBR (ln) 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,6 0,5

    T sut c tc (%) 13,3% 11,1% 13,3% 14,8% 16,3%

    ROE (%) 24,4% 16,5% 17,8% 22,5% 25,2%

    N/(N+Vn CSH) (%) 111,6% 62,1% 57,7% 70,1% 69,7%

    0

    400

    800

    1,200

    1,600

    2,000

    2,400

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    T12-11 T03-12 T06-12 T09-12

    Din bin gi

    Nghn ng ----- Gi (LHS) KL (RHS) 000

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    See important disclosure at the end of this document

    HOLD Tc ng t Samsung n th trng 90 triu ngi

    tiu dng Vit Nam

    Petrosetco, tn chnh thc l Tng Cng ty C phn Dch v Tng hp Du kh, c thnh

    lp vo nm 1996 nh l mt cng ty con ca Tp on Du kh Vit Nam (PVN) vi mc

    ch l cung cp cc dch v hu cn, t chc tic, dch v lao ng cho cc cng ty du kh

    trong Tp on PVN. Tuy nhin, cc hot ng ny hin nay ch chim 8% tng doanh thu

    ca cng ty, cn hot ng ch yu chnh l phn phi.

    Gn 90% doanh thu ca Petrosetco n t phn phi v kinh doanh, v mt na trong s

    ny (v li nhun) n t phn phi in thoi di ng m cho n gia nm 2012 hu ht l

    in thoi di ng Nokia.

    Trong cc khon thu cn li, 15% n t phn phi my tnh c nhn, my tnh xch tay v

    cc sn phm Cng ngh thng tin (CNTT), v phn cn li l t sn xut v kinh doanh bnh

    gas, phn phi nha Polypropylene, kinh doanh phn bn m Ph M v xut khu sn lt.

    Petrosetco cng tham gia pht trin bt ng sn v cung cp dch v qun l ti sn. Tuy

    nhin, trng tm ca bo co ny l hot ng phn phi in thoi di ng, do cc hot

    ng kinh doanh khc ca cng ty tng trng u v li nhun n nh.

    Bc chuyn thng minh t phn phi cho Nokia sang Samsung Nokia tng l nh cung cp ln nht ca Petrosetco cho n nm 2012 khi mi quan h ca

    cng ty vi Nokia xu i do Nokia ch nh FPT l nh phn phi c quyn ti th trng

    min Bc v Petrosetco thnh lp mt cng ty con khc l "Smartcom" phn phi in thoi

    di ng cho cc nh sn xut khc nh Sony-Ericsson v LG. Tthng 08/2012, cng ty phn

    phi ca Petrosetco (PSD) chnh thc chia tay Nokia bt tay hp tc vi Samsung.

    Hnh 1: Mc thi gian hp tc phn phi in thoi di ng ca Petrosetco

    Ngun: D liu cng ty, thng 11/2012

    Hnh 2a : So snh Nokia v Samsung th trng

    Vit Nam

    Hnh 2b : Gi in thoi trung bnh ton

    cu ca Samsung v Nokia

    2011 Nokia Samsung

    Th phn 50% 25%

    Phn khc in thoi c bn

    in thoi thng minh

    Cc mu in thoi ph bin

    1800, 1280 Cc dng in thoi hai SIM

    Galaxy Y Galaxy Mini

    Gi bn trung bnh ca Petrosetco

    $45 $80

    Thanh ton bng

    USD ng ni t

    K thanh ton Tr trc Tr sau

    Ngun: IDC, D liu cng ty, d bo ca VCSC Ngun: Asymco.com

    4/2011

    Thnh lp Cng ty

    Smartcom

    6/2011

    Phn phi thm cho

    Sony-Ericsson

    12/2011

    Phn phi thm cho

    LG

    8/2012

    Dng phn phi cho NOKIA

    9/2012

    Phn phi thm cho Samsung

    10/2012

    Phn phi thm cho

    Blackberry

    $0

    $100

    $200

    $300

    2Q

    FY

    07

    2Q

    FY

    08

    2Q

    FY

    09

    2Q

    FY

    10

    2Q

    FY

    11

    2Q

    FY

    12

    Samsung Nokia

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    HOLD Chng ti cho rng vic Petrosetco chuyn sang phn phi in thoi thng minh cho

    Samsung l mt bc i thng minh, to nhiu tim nng tng trng cho cng ty hn l tip

    tc phn phi cho Nokia vn chm chn trong vic nm bt xu hng in thoi thng

    minh ti Vit Nam. Chng ti cho rng li nhun ca Petrosetco s tng nhanh do ba nguyn

    nhn sau:

    Doanh thu v th phn ca Samsung ang tng trn th gii v ti Vit Nam trong khi

    doanh thu v th phn ca Nokia st gim

    Th trng in thoi thng minh Vit Nam cn nhiu ha hn vi t l thm nhp ch

    l 11%, so vi mc 50% ca khu vc

    Petrosetco nhn c cc iu khon thanh ton c li hn t Samsung so vi t

    Nokia trc y

    Samsung v lnh o mi Trong Qu 1/2012 Samsung kt thc 14 nm tr v ca Nokia vi th phn mng in thoi

    di ng ng u ton cu. Trong giai on ny, Samsung bn c 86 triu in thoi

    v chim 20,7% th phn phn ton cu, ko Nokia xung v tr th hai vi 19,8% th phn v

    Apple ng v tr th ba vi 7,9% th phn (theo Gartner, thng 05/2012).

    Hnh 3a: Samsung hin ng u th gii Hnh 3b: Nokia lt ra ngoi top 5 nh sn xut

    in thoi thng minh

    Ngun: IDC Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker

    Hnh 4: S lng in thoi c bn ra trn ton cu ca Samsung trn tng mnh

    Ngun: Strategy Analytics: smart phone shipments (Thng 11/2011)

    0

    40

    80

    120

    Samsung Apple ZTE

    (triu) S lng in thoi bn ra ton cu

    3QFY11

    3QFY12

    0

    20

    40

    60

    Samsung Apple RIM ZTE HTC

    (triu S lng bn T thng minh ton cu

    3QFY11

    3QFY12

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    1Q2009 3Q2009 1Q2010 3Q2010 1Q2011 3Q2011

    (triu) S lng in thoi thng minh c bn trn ton cu theo qu

    Nokia

    Samsung

    Apple

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    HOLD Vit Nam ui theo th gii Ti chu , "chu k chuyn i in thoi thng minh" ch mi bt u. Ti cc th trng

    pht trin nh Singapore v Malaysia, in thoi thng minh c t l thm nhp, ngha l s

    thu bao trn dn s, ln n 90%. Trong cc th trng bo ha ny, doanh thu in

    thoi thng minh bt u tng trng chm li.

    Trong khi , Vit Nam, Thi Lan, v Philippines vn cn giai on u ca cuc cch

    mng in thoi di ng vi t l thm nhp in thoi thng minh t hn 30%. Trong khi in

    thoi thng minh ti th trng Vit Nam vn cn s khai th Philippines v Thi Lan, in

    thoi thng minh thm nhp su hn vi mc tng trng doanh thu ng kinh ngc, ln

    n 326% v hn 200% vo nm ngoi. R rng Vit Nam c nhiu trin vng tng trng

    khi theo xu hng ca th gii.

    Hnh 5: T l thm nhp thp ngha l trin vng tng trng cao cho n khi bo ha

    Hnh 6: Vit Nam c nhiu in thoi di ng, nhng vn cn t in thoi thng